545: 10 Trends for Week 2

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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J Zacherson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at Fandle and at number fire dot com in this episode five hundred and forty five of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Before I get going with this week's trends, I want to remind you that Fandal is giving you a free way to get in on the NFL action. The FanDuel NFL High Low is a free to play fantasy football contest. All you have to do is build your scorecard with the teams you think will score highest or lowest in four stack categories. The closer you are to being spot on, the more points you'll get. Players with the most points each week will split the prize pool, and a perfect scorecard will win the jackpot. Head over to fandel dot com today and play the FanDuel High Low for free. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandel dot com or download the Fandel Lap for more details. So last week I talked about the Ravens backfield and how they've split it pretty heavily under Greg Roman, and then I mentioned how they don't target their backfield at a very high rate. Well, that first part continued in Week one. No Ravens running back had higher than a forty eight percent running back rush are in. The highest snap share from a Raven's running back was from Tyson Williams and he played fifty one and a half percent of their snaps. The streak of no running back hitting that seventy percent mark it continues, but the receiving aspect was different. On Monday night, Tyson Williams had four targets and a thirteen point eight percent target share in Baltimore's loss. That was the fourth highest target share for a running back in a Baltimore offense over the last two years or since Lamar Jackson fully became starter in that offense. Maybe this has to do with the Baltimore pass catching group being a little bit banged up and it being a little bit newer, but it's something to monitor moving forward. Trend two this week is that Austin Eckler didn't see a single target in Week one. It was the first time in his career where he saw ten or more rushes while being held without a target And here's the crazy part. Austin Eckler had two goal line rushes. My stance on Eckler is that he was actually almost a by candidate on the fifteen Transaction Show yesterday. The fact that he saw this goal line work is really really encouraging. The fact that he didn't see a target chair that's not especially when you consider what Anthony Lynn's running backs didn't Detroit this past weekend. Because what if Anthony Lynn was helping boost this target chair for Eckler all along? That thought at least creeps into your mind. But I'm going to bank on Eckler seeing more work through the air moving forward, because we know that he can do that well. We have years of evidence pointing to Austin Eckler being a good receiver. If he sees the goal line work too, that could really put together a top five season in PPR formats. So right now, I think Eckler is a bye. Darren Waller led all tight ends in target share in week One's not surprising, but you know who number two was, Adam Troutman. The Saints just didn't throw the ball a whole lot, but Troutman saw six of the possible twenty targets in that offense in Week one, he turned that into three catches for eighteen yards, and Juwan Johnson ended up stealing the show because of what he did in the red zone. But as I mentioned on the fifteen Transactions episode yesterday, Troutman doubled Johnson in both targets and routes run. The peripherals are there when the Saints aren't facing the script that they faced in Week one, Troutman could really explode. Another player I was close to making a buye in fifteen Transactions this week was Antonio Gibson, and the reason why is pretty simple. He was used as a bell cow in Week one. There was some concern over how the football team would deploy Gibson as a pass catcher this year, but in Week one he handled eighty seven percent of the team's running back rushes and he had almost a twenty four percent target share. It wasn't Jad McKissick benefiting from dumpoffs. So if you drafted Gibson, good on you. The main reason he's not a clear cut by is because of the Fitzpatrick injury. But I do still think that Gibson will be okay. I lean more by with Gibson than Sell for sure, and if you can get him cheaper than you should because of that Fitzpatrick injury, I say go for it. No quarterback threw it deep at a higher rate in Week one than Russell Wilson over thirty percent of his attempts traveled fifteen or more air yards. This isn't that big of a surprise given Wilson usually does well in this category, but it's a good sign with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, Wilson was just insanely efficient against the Colts. Now on the flip side, Andy Dalton ranked last and deep ball rate, but Jalen Hurts was second to last. Only one of Hurtz's thirty five pass attempts when fifteen or more air yards. That's nothing really to worry about necessarily, especially given the game script that they saw, but again it's something worth monitoring moving forward. Trend six this week is related to this week's hot way Wire ad Elijah Mitchell. As I noted yesterday, Mitchell ended up with a running back rush share of eighty six point four percent in that game against Detroit. I went back and looked and since Kyle Shanahan took over as head coach of the forty nine ers in twenty seventeen. That running back rush share was the fourth highest from any running back in that San Francisco offense. A lot went Mitchell's way in Week one. Obviously, the team didn't dress Tray Sermon where heem Moster went out early, but it's still interesting and somewhat telling that they like Mitchell. Like I said yesterday, though, don't drop Trey Sermon. There's a non zero chance he ends up seeing more work than Mitchell, not just throughout the season, but maybe as soon as this week. That doesn't mean that Mitchell's not a great ad. He is. You just need to be thinking about this in a probability driven way instead of a black and white one. As we know, the Lions targeted their running backs a ton out of the backfield on Sunday. DeAndre Swift and Jamal Williams ended the day with a combined thirty five point seven percent target share. Detroit didn't lead the league in running back target chair in Week one, though it was actually Indianapolis who did. Jonathan Taylor and Nihim Hines. They combined to see almost forty three percent of the Colts targets. This is very, very very good news for those of you who have Jonathan Taylor. Philip Rivers is obviously no longer there, and there's some evidence that running back targets are tied to quarterbacks, but without really good alternatives in that offense to go along with a negative game script, we saw the running backs heavily utilized. Taylor should end up being an RB one this year if he stays healthy, and that was a little bit questionable for some entering the season. Chester Rogers led the Titans in receiving in Week one. You've got aj Brown and you have Julio Jones, and Chester freaking Rogers leads that team in receiving. It was a disastrous start for the Tennessee Titans. Ryan Tannehill kind of saved his fantasy day with a rushing touchdown, but it was bad and it absolutely makes you wonder if losing Arthur Smith is going to be a big deal for this offense. In Week one, eleven point six percent of Tannehill's dropbacks involved play action, according to Pro Football Focus. Last year, that rate was thirty six point four percent, which was the highest in the league. We really want that number to be higher in order to help the Tennessee passing attack. I know gamescript got away from them, but it was still a really low number in Week one. The Saints were lowest in the league in Week one in wide receiver target shair, but right next to them was kind of a surprise, and it was Atlanta. Only thirty point three percent of Atlanta's targets went to wide receivers against Philadelphia. Now, I've gotten a lot of questions since Sunday asking about what people should do with Calvin Ridley. I don't think it's time to sell. It's always tough when a player starts the season cold. But Ridley still accounted for twenty four percent of the team's targets, meaning the other wide receivers on the Falcons they were a much bigger issue. Russell Gage was the only other wide receiver on that team who was targeted, and he didn't catch a single pass. So hold Ridley. I wouldn't go buying him, but in places where I have him, I'm not selling low. The final trend this week is about Clyde Edwards a Laire. A lot of people are rightfully disappointed by his RB thirty two performance in Week one, But let's look at the positives. That's what I'm here to do. I want to make you feel better. Cech saw eighty seven and a half percent of Kansas City's running back rushes against Cleveland. His average per game last year was sixty eight point four percent. Meanwhile, he was close enough to his target chair per game average last year too. He had a nine percent target chair against the Browns. It wasn't the easiest matchup in the world for Edwards a Laire and the script in that game was not one that Kansas City is likely going to see a lot this year. So, similar to Calvin Ridley, I'm not selling cech Low, I'm holding. That's going to do for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found you if we can follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Sleeper Show.