Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Leaning Into the Hype?

00:00:00
Speaker 1: So rich.

00:00:00
Speaker 2: I was doing a live stream on the YouTube channel yesterday. I did two milli drafts in a row. The first draft went really well. It was actually the third MILLI draft in a row that i'd done live stream wise, that was just awesome. And then I'm like, yeah, sure, I'll go with another draft. And as I'm drafting.

00:00:18
Speaker 1: I sneeze.

00:00:19
Speaker 2: Okay, So as I sneeze, you know, like flem starts to formulate my nose and stuff like that, because I'm a human being, I'm not an alien, and I can't like talk as well. It's just kind of like gross sounding and feeling. So I'm like, all right, guys, give me one second. I'm gonna go blow my nose.

00:00:36
Speaker 1: Okay.

00:00:37
Speaker 2: I have a short SM seven B microphone, which to those who are in the podcasting space, you know that that's a good microphone, like it's an expensive microphone.

00:00:47
Speaker 1: Because this is my job.

00:00:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, right, right, Like this is my job, so I want the microphone to be good. And usually, like I'm in the front of my house where my office is, there's lawnmowers going on outside, there's people screen I mean at times in my house outside my house, you know, it's just a neighborhood thing. Kids are playing all that kind of stuff. Nothing gets picked up on this mic. Like I could even walk away, or you know, walk two or three feet from the microphone, it would not pick up my voice. Okay, But yesterday, because my bathroom is right behind this wall, yesterday, I get up and I go and I blow my nose, and lo and behold the sure seven m SB or seven B.

00:01:26
Speaker 1: Picks up a freaking nose.

00:01:28
Speaker 2: Trumpet, the biggest blow your nose noise that you have ever heard in your life. And everyone on that stream heard it. And all I got to say is, guys, I'm a dad, deal with it.

00:01:40
Speaker 1: I'm JJ.

00:01:41
Speaker 2: And last year I tried my hardest to become a best ball bro I drafted over five hundred teams. I talked to some of the most successful best ball players in existence, and I admittedly had mixed results. So this year I'm gonna chase that title once again. My plan is a max Enter draftings millionaire maker, and I'm gonna document all of it while talking to the right his best ball minds on the planet.

00:02:02
Speaker 1: Last year I didn't quite get there.

00:02:04
Speaker 2: But this year, this is going to be the year where I officially become a Best Ball bro. This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. There's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with Best Ball on DraftKings, where you draft once and ride your roster all season long. And right now, Draftings giving all customers I can't miss offer Draft one, Get one, enter a lineup in the fifteen million dollars Best Ball contest for just twenty dollars, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play free for a share of that fifteen million, giving you a second shot to win big.

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00:04:02
Speaker 1: To the show.

00:04:04
Speaker 2: Welcome into another episode of becoming a Best Ball bro. I'm JJ Zachares and joined as always by Rich Ryan Rich.

00:04:12
Speaker 1: What's going on?

00:04:12
Speaker 3: Buddy doing good Man? The Summer of Bill continues. There's nothing that can stop Ja Cory Krofsky merit unstoppable force.

00:04:22
Speaker 1: Dude.

00:04:23
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what I will never forget when it was maybe June, like late June into early July, and David Kitchen messages me and he's like, hey, go check your exposure on DraftKings. I hadn't done it right and I drafted probably I don't know, one hundred to one hundred and twenty teams at that time. And I go and I look, and he's like, all right, take a screenshot. So I took a screen shot because we were just comparing exposure.

00:04:46
Speaker 1: This is what we do.

00:04:47
Speaker 2: And I had like twelve percent JCM at the time. This is back again, this is like late June, early July, and he's like, what.

00:04:57
Speaker 1: Is going on right now?

00:04:59
Speaker 2: Why do you have twelve percent Ja Cory Krossky married, And I'm like, I don't know, man. I mean like I've done studies and looked at the fact that like these day three rookie running backs, when they have, you know, good production, it's usually coming from more ambiguous backfield situations. And I don't like Brian Robinson. I have been very very vocal about the anti Brian Robinson take. So of course I'm gonna draft Austin Eckler and I'm gonna draft Ja Cory Krossky. Merrit I never ever expected this to have ever ever. I mean, this is just it's it's crazy, it's out of control. And that's one of the things I wanted to talk about on the show today, and I did talk to our guests today about this little bit Connor Allen and thinking about you know, I have good exposure to JCM and now he's getting steel and I only have ten MILLI drafts left at this moment, so I'm probably going to be fading JCM over the next ten drafts that I do in the Millie because I got such value out of him. But I do think that it's an interesting conversation to have of if you didn't get him earlier, do you draft him now? What should you be doing with the Commander's backfield? All that good stuff. My stances, and again we get into it more because I've already done the interview with Connor, But my stance is that you can still draft.

00:06:14
Speaker 1: Him as long as it doesn't get like like, if you feel the value is.

00:06:17
Speaker 2: There in the moment right now, fine take them because there's so many other things going on, you know, with your team and so many other players and ADP values that you may or may not get. I'll tell you what though, my approach over these next these final ten drafts for the Millie, I'm going to be very very focused on Chris Rodriguez because no one's been drafting him at all right through this point in time. I would imagine he has zero point one percent if that right percent drafted in these in these MILLI drafts.

00:06:48
Speaker 1: He started in the preseason.

00:06:51
Speaker 2: I think, like my read on this situation is that they're willing to get rid of Brian Robinson, not just because they see the upside in Jacory Krossky Merriot, which I think that Bill is the up side play and he should be the one that gets steamed, but they do feel good about the early down bruiser in Rodriguez. Which that's the role that Brian Robinson was playing, which is why I was not drafting Brian Robinson an ADP, because he's not a pass catcher, right Like, that's the thing that I was the one thing that we should be looking for at running back. And the argument for b rob was, well, you could score fifteen touchdowns. It's like, Okay, it doesn't really do it for me, because you could say that about a lot of running backs.

00:07:24
Speaker 1: But with Chris Rodriguez.

00:07:26
Speaker 2: If you look at his prospect profile, his size, what he's done in the NFL so far, you can squint and just see Brian Robinson with Chris Rodriguez, and so if they can save the little money, if they can maybe get some draft capital out of it, why not float Brian Robinson out there and say, Okay, we've had we were going to have to make a really tough decision on who we were going to keep on this roster because Eckler and JCM seem like locks for the roster, so that means the third spot would come down to Chris Rodriguez and Brian Robinson. If there's a way they can save money or get draft capital even better, that's probably why they're thinking what they're thinking. And so I'm gonna lean into Chris Rodriguez, you know, I'm trying to now get Brian Robison exposure. I made the mistake in that live stream. I drafted him. I reached for him because I was in a really dead spot in the draft and I was really panicked and out of it, and it was a really bad pick.

00:08:17
Speaker 1: And that second team I drafted was absolutely horrific. But it was just I just.

00:08:20
Speaker 2: Burned twenty dollars. But at least you guys got a nose trumpet out of it, right, I mean, guys, look, if you go and you watch that stream and you listen to me blowing my nose, it's a rite of passage as a father that you get louder for your sneezes.

00:08:36
Speaker 3: I have to try to make it into the air horns. That's my new task for the week, is to try to turn your nose trumpet into the air horns.

00:08:44
Speaker 4: That's my jet's my job this way.

00:08:46
Speaker 2: I had no idea when I got back and I sat down at the chair, I had no idea that people could hear me blowing my nose.

00:08:51
Speaker 1: And so I'm like, all right, cool, yeah, we're good.

00:08:52
Speaker 2: We're good, you know, and all that yesterday I was wearing red gym shorts, okay, and so you could see it. You got a glimpse of my gym shorts as I got because no one ever sees my legs and I wasn't going out in public, So what do I care if I'm wearing red gym shorts. But when people then see it on the internet, they're like, why are you wearing a Dicky's T shirt and red gym shorts.

00:09:11
Speaker 1: And blowing your note. I was a hot mess during that second stream.

00:09:15
Speaker 2: Regardless, I think that the move now is I'm going to try to get falling b Rob value. Maybe he stays with Washington.

00:09:22
Speaker 1: I have no idea.

00:09:22
Speaker 2: I doubt that's the case because he didn't even go to their preseason game last night in Cincinnati. He could go to Chicago, right, he could go to Dallas, he could go to some one of these places where then it justifies where you were drafting him a little bit better before.

00:09:37
Speaker 1: Maybe.

00:09:38
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think he's going to get to the point where he was like a mid seventh round pick. I just don't think that's gonna happen again, especially if no team trades for him. But I do want some exposure because he is a decent enough like Bruiser.

00:09:51
Speaker 1: It's just, you know, what.

00:09:53
Speaker 2: Washington's basically saying is that they want to disguise what they're going to do a little bit better, and they probably feel a little bit better about Chris Rodriguez doing that or Jacory Krossky Merrit doing that, and obviously Austin Eckler being able to do that the other wild thing I.

00:10:06
Speaker 1: Have to throw out there.

00:10:07
Speaker 2: It is insane to me that Austin Eckler's ADP has has been completely.

00:10:13
Speaker 1: Unmoved and not changed at all throughout all of this.

00:10:16
Speaker 2: I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that people think that krossky Merritt is a big threat to Eckler, when krossky Merrit is much more of like an early down explosive type running back who maybe develops into more of a pass catcher. But Eckler, to me, is the pass catching back in that offense. So he's a great ADP value right now.

00:10:32
Speaker 3: Eckler down one point seven spots since training camp started, so no shifts. There's everything around him is chaos in the lot backfield, and Austin Eckler, like you said, the guy who's kind of just pinned in as the pass catching option in the backfield, is just not moving.

00:10:49
Speaker 2: What's over And I can tell you that maybe the ADP move maybe next week when we talk about or if we talk about it, or maybe you just see his ADP go up. But I can tell you anecdotally, I've done probably like four or five draft since a lot of this news dropped like yesterday's live stream, I didn't get the news that Brian Robinson hadn't even traveled with them for that pre or wasn't gonna play in the preseason game, and like wasn't gonna be there or whatever. That changed my tune a lot to the point where like, Okay, this is happening, like more than likely. I'd say, like ninety five percent chance he's not gonna be on the team next year, and maybe by the time you guys listen to this episode.

00:11:22
Speaker 1: It's already happened, right.

00:11:24
Speaker 2: I did drafts after that news broke and Eckler was still going past ADP. It's just very very strange to me for a guy, which, by the way, when I first did the or the draft guide and I launched it on July first, he was a player to target for our late round dart throw for me because his numbers last year as a receiver were actually not bad at all, and he has some contingent upside, and I think now given what they're hinting and what they're wanting to do, he might see more early down work than we expect to.

00:11:54
Speaker 1: I just think he's a really really great pick right now.

00:11:57
Speaker 3: I mean Brian rabinsonicky cut right like third round draft pick two hundred k and dead money like it. It does nothing to them negatively financially to cut him. Obviously, they'll try to bait a late round Day three pick if they can out of one of these teams.

00:12:11
Speaker 4: That's the objective.

00:12:12
Speaker 3: But these teams also know that he could just get cut too.

00:12:16
Speaker 4: So yeah, it's crazy. It's really crazy how quickly this accelerated.

00:12:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, it moved very very fast.

00:12:23
Speaker 2: Some other things going on for me this week with drafts that I want to at least touch on. I keep drafting Jackson Smith and Jigba. A lot of these are in the non MILLI drafts. So when you hear my exposures next week, we'll go over all of that. It'll be our final show of the season. You know, I probably won't even bring up Jackson Smith and Jigba. But you know, I'm doing a lot of like the fifty nine dollars, some of those like ten entry or ten ten max Entry, three max Entry. Like I'm trying to fill up basically everything that I can in the DK lobby right now with slow.

00:12:53
Speaker 1: Drafts and stuff.

00:12:54
Speaker 2: And I've just noticed that I'm currently preferring JSN to Tyreek Hill at the moment, just because of all this stuff. Just there's just a lot of bad vibes to Tyreek, I'm preferring JSN to him. And then there's also you know, I am trying to mix in some of the elite quarterbacks at times, like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, but there's just such a dead area in that range that if I go running back with one of my first two picks, or if I go like running back, you know, I've gotten like a Saquon brock Bauers team. I need to go wide receiver in the next round, and JSN just seems to be that.

00:13:26
Speaker 5: Dude.

00:13:26
Speaker 2: There's just a really obvious dead spot in the draft, and like the mid third round, everyone feels it. Connor even talks about it during the interview, and so that's just kind of forced me to get more JSN exposure.

00:13:36
Speaker 4: In that round.

00:13:38
Speaker 3: End of the third, top of the fourth, it's JSN from a receiver standpoint right now, ADP JSN, Marv Garrett Wilson, Mike Evans, Davante Adams. So yeah, it's kind of pick your poison, right every one of these guys has warts, and of course Tyreek Kill is going right before that, and the if you want to talk about drumbeat, there has been the most negative of dumb beat all season, all off season coming from South Florida. And now we're hearing that Tua won't throw at Tyreek because of the risk injury. Like nothing positive is coming out of Miami camp with the guards to Tyreek Hill.

00:14:14
Speaker 4: So it's it's pick your poison.

00:14:15
Speaker 1: I just don't want to be overexposed to Tyreek Hill.

00:14:17
Speaker 2: I got enough Tyreek Hill that I feel comfortable with, So I'm just not going to really force the issue with that. Another player that we probably should touch on at Mecha Buka. He's way up in my rankings right now because we just learned that Jalen McMillan is going to be sidelined for a while because of that gruesome fall and spill that he had last week in the in the preseason game, So a metic Buka now.

00:14:42
Speaker 1: So so I was already gonna move Atguka up in.

00:14:44
Speaker 2: My rankings because there were some bad vibes and bad you know, bad reports about Godwin and his comeback, Like he's not even jogging on a separate field right now, So a metic Buka now not only was going to be the clear cut wide receiver to to start the season, now they don't even have the wide receiver depth that we thought. The only dude in front of him is Mike Evans, who you know is on the wrong side of the age curve and has had soft tissue stuff and like hamstring stuff and.

00:15:08
Speaker 1: Like a mechic Buka.

00:15:09
Speaker 2: To me, maybe this is a hot take, and I haven't to be fair, I'm saying this without really sitting down and fully ranking things out. But I don't see the reason why a metic Buca should go far after Tetero.

00:15:21
Speaker 1: McMillan at this point in Best Ball drafts.

00:15:25
Speaker 2: Maybe that's a hot take, but and look, I mean I've been very high on Agbuka. You guys know this if you listen to the podcast all offseason, not just becoming a Best Ball bro but the Late Round podcast loved him as a prospect. Think he's in a very very good spot, and so you know, maybe there's some bias there, but everything is pointing in the right direction for Igbuca, and I just don't see situationally how this is really not massively in his favor at this point, So I think you can establish himself now that these guys are sidelining the way that they are, and if he does, then it could just be game over from there if if he shows out, which I think he will because he's good.

00:16:02
Speaker 3: Last week, you and I were talking about the steam is getting a little too heavy for the Ohio State rookie. But then, of course the McMillan injury and the news gets worse for Godwin if he just steps into the WR two role on this team, and maybe it's Godwin coming back from injury, maybe it's McMillan coming back from injury. I mean it's it's wheels up like right now in ADP he's going after his A Flowers or Jaalen Model.

00:16:26
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, yeah at that point.

00:16:29
Speaker 2: So yeah, if I look at my wide receiver rankings right now, like to me, it's easy, he was already basically like like in my opinion with the Godwin stuff, he was going to be above Za Flowers. He wasn't really even that far from Flowers. He was in the same tier as Flowers. In my last rankings update, I'm going to take a Guka over DJ Moore over Courtland Sutton over Travis Hunter. I think that he probably belongs in that Like he probably belongs in that tier with like Jmo in my opinion, like.

00:17:00
Speaker 3: I was gonna say Jamelin Deavonta Smith are the guys he should be pushing up to.

00:17:03
Speaker 2: And I love both of them, so like it's just another guy that would go in that area. You know, I'm fortunate that I drafted him a lot, so I probably don't need to force it. But some of those other contests that I'm doing in the slow drafts, like I took him in the late fifth because I was on the clock, and I'm like, yeah, I'm I'm just gonna do this at like five oh nine or so, which is not that far off from where he was going before a lot of this stuff. But I just feel really good about Agbuca and I don't want to miss out.

00:17:26
Speaker 1: I want to be.

00:17:27
Speaker 2: Way, way overweight with him versus the market I'm at, like in the millie, I think around thirteen percent or so, And I looked at my average pick for Igbuca and it was about eighty fourth or eighty fifth overall.

00:17:39
Speaker 1: Or something like that.

00:17:39
Speaker 2: So I feel good about where Agbuka's at now where I don't feel great is quinch on Judkins.

00:17:45
Speaker 1: Where I didn't draft Judkins at all.

00:17:48
Speaker 2: I was assuming that things weren't going to be very clean and pretty this year, you know, with this domestic violence situation that was going on, and obviously those charges were dropped.

00:17:57
Speaker 1: Now we're getting word that.

00:17:59
Speaker 2: The NFL still might, you know, look into this, and that Judkins still I mean, he hasn't signed yet at the time of this recording.

00:18:06
Speaker 3: He doesn't have a contract right so and there's the Browns are saying that they might not even sign him until the NFL does their investigation, which how much How often does the NFL investigate players that aren't part.

00:18:18
Speaker 4: Of the union, Like does he have union sat us. It's a mess right now.

00:18:21
Speaker 1: I don't know how to I don't know any of illegal stuff.

00:18:23
Speaker 2: What I do know is that I'm still very worried, and I still think that, like from a season long perspective, like a zero RB perspective, Dylan Samson's Rome Ford are still pretty attractive.

00:18:32
Speaker 5: You know.

00:18:33
Speaker 2: I thought that Ford was honestly a decent enough pick before everything went down with Judkins, because I think he's the game, like the negative game script back which is going to be helpful, and a bad brown on a bad Browns team. I think that I'm just going to fade Judkins, Like I'm just not going to lean into this new price. You know, maybe it'll be a big mistake, but it's just not a good enough players situation and him being a rookie in camp. Like I didn't mind Judkins as a prospect, don't get me wrong, but I just think without camp and him being on this team that he's on that's not supposed to be very good or doesn't project to be very good, and with Dylan Samson getting the work that he's gotten, with Jerome Ford being a good third down back slash pass catcher and just kind of a good solid backup for that team, you know, with Judkins, I just it's a really hard sell for me to even still buy into Judkins with so much negative stuff still looming.

00:19:28
Speaker 3: It's still a tenth round pick for somebody with massive question marks, right, Like, this isn't a very end of the draft dart throw. Like in the tenth round, there are still players who we need to contribute on our roster, And like you said, if the upside case was there, if this was an offense that we project to break out to score a ton to be in these games, it would be a much different gamble. But we're quite parish on the entire rounds operation. So it makes this gamble at this price very difficult to bulletrigger.

00:20:04
Speaker 2: Yes, and then I'll talk about other mistakes that I've made that I regret. I have a lot of Jalen Wright exposure from July. I was drafting Jalen Wright on like every other team in July. And my mistake, you know, in hindsight, I didn't lean into enough into the actual profile of the player.

00:20:24
Speaker 1: Did I like Jalen Wright coming out? I thought he was fine.

00:20:26
Speaker 2: I thought he fit this offense well, but he wasn't like a screaming you know.

00:20:31
Speaker 1: I love this dude as a prospect.

00:20:33
Speaker 2: And then the problem that I had, And in hindsight, I'm trying to think, like, was I making the wrong choice in the moment? And I say that because I liked If you go read the prospect guide, Ollie Gordon was someone that the model really liked, and he had James Connor and Ramandre Stevenson his top comps and he was a low risk profile by draft Capital delta, which means the model liked Ali Gordon a lot more than where he was drafted in the NFL draft. The problem is, and this is I think why I didn't lean heavily into this is that Jalen Wright seemed to have a roster spot on lock right, whereas Alexander Madison was competing with Ali Gordon. And now Alexander Madison has that season ending injury, that neck injury, and so Alli Gordon is the de facto RB three, and he is, predictably by the ZAP model, you know, showing out and looking decent. You know, I don't know if he's gonna be great in the I have no idea, But what I'm saying is like, so far, so good versus what the ZAP model said. My issue and what I missed here was that when Madison went down, I should have been aggressive in getting Alli Gorton.

00:21:36
Speaker 1: Like I should have.

00:21:37
Speaker 2: I should have thought more about that and and what that meant for my portfolio and how I've sort of approached that backfield. Now, Devon a Chan's banged up right now, so Jalen Wright probably still gets first crack in Week one if Devon a Chan's out and maybe Jalen Wright still gives me like all I need is.

00:21:55
Speaker 1: Like three usable weeks from him right for it.

00:21:57
Speaker 2: To be an okay get But that was that's that's the look like an early L for me. And the other one is Roshan Johnson, who to me is more injury related because he's been.

00:22:06
Speaker 1: Banged up and he hasn't been able to practice and stuff.

00:22:08
Speaker 2: But I've also gotten a lot of Kyle Mnung guy, so that one's not as big of a deal. Like I wouldn't feel bad about the Jalen Wright thing if I got a lot of Ollie Gordon. But I haven't gotten a lot of Ollie Gordon. I'm gonna try to over these final ten drafts. There was one draft, one of the stre one of the drafts that I did on the stream yesterday where I'm like, Okay, this is gonna be an Allie Gordon team, and Allie Gordon went in round thirteen.

00:22:28
Speaker 1: So I'm you know, I'm not.

00:22:30
Speaker 2: It was it was a will the Ali Gordon turn at the like the the like thirteen or twelve thirteen turn or something like that, and so yeah, like I I'm trying to get more Gordon. I think that was a mistake. I want to be transparent about mistakes. I can't sit here and say how excited I am about you know, Jacory Krosky, Merritt and mechag Buka without recognizing that I'm not very excited about Roshan Johnson and the injury that he's been dealing with. Although I think that I covered my bases relatively well with Manung Guy, and then I mean, b Rob could just ruin both of them too if he ends up going to Chicago, but that's what you get with late round running backs in general. And then Jalen Wright, I think that was just a big mistake. Like I just like, you're gonna hear me talk about my exposures next week, and I'm warning you he is. He's gonna be one of my highest roster running backs because of the way that I drafted in July thinking that him and his role was safe and I wasn't leaning enough into that talent profile.

00:23:23
Speaker 1: I make mistakes. That's a mistake. Let's hope that it doesn't completely burn me this.

00:23:28
Speaker 3: Season, especially over a summer of drafting and injuries.

00:23:32
Speaker 4: Like, no one's gonna be perfect, right.

00:23:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I know, Look, I if my biggest like qualm with my teams is that I have, you know, eighteen percent Jalen Wright or something like that, then that's probably not that big of a deal, especially because it's running back. But again, I try to like practice what I preach, and I talk about leaning into talent all the time. And if my process said there's a good talent profile on Ali Gordon, then I probably shouldn't have been as aggressive as I was with Jalen Wright. I was kind of reading into beat reports to my reading into the idea that he was the clear kadarby two and that he was going to see more work. Maybe that comes to fruition. Still, I'm not trying to say that nine carries in the preseason makes your breaks a take. So I'm not saying that it's complete dust and over for Jalen Wright. What I am saying is I liked Dollie Gordon and he now has a clear opportunity where he didn't before, and I should have really jumped and jumped on that. As the Alexander Madison injury.

00:24:25
Speaker 3: Happened, Well, what's crazy is and I know you're only have ten MILLI drafts remaining, but there's.

00:24:31
Speaker 4: Still two weeks of drafting to go. There's still oh.

00:24:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm.

00:24:36
Speaker 2: All the Millie drafts. Yeah yeah, all ten of them, all ten of them. That's what's gonna happen anyway. All right, let's get to the guests this week. I already talked about. It's Connor Allen from four to four Football. He does uh fantasy content and sports betting content for them, really really sharp dude. We talked about how he manages his MILLI teams this late in the draft season. Some of the stuff that we just talked about put in a little bit more detail, how much he cares about the preseason. I thought that was a really fun discussion, and how he looks at players who steam up draft boards so much more. Great conversation. He also has some interesting stacks as well. There's one stack that I agree with him on, but you know, I don't know if everyone will necessarily agree with our stance on it. So give that a listense without further ado, here's the interview with Connor out. All right, Connor, we're at the home stretch these these summer long drafts, you know, like the Millie Maker, We're about to complete them.

00:25:32
Speaker 1: I only have about ten left.

00:25:33
Speaker 2: I'm saving them basically from my live streams at this point so that I don't run out.

00:25:37
Speaker 1: But what's something that surprised you about that.

00:25:40
Speaker 2: Contest in particular most this year, Like, is it something that's been strategy related, maybe a player's particular ADP. What are some of the things that just have shocked you as this summer's gone on, because I know that you've been drafting obviously all summer as well.

00:25:53
Speaker 6: Yeah, there was one thing that stood out to me most, and that was that ADPs didn't shift for players with like known suspensions coming. So she Rice it came out, you know, a while ago basically saying that he was probably going to face some sort of suspension, which was a bit of a surprise for us as a fantasy community, and but was still routinely going like three four turn and you know, most of the projections were like, Okay, he's going to face a four to six game suspension, so maybe, I mean, I think I was comfortable in like the mid fifth at that point, you know, but he just wasn't getting there that much. And so then then it comes out like, Okay, well, now he's gonna play the first four games and now he's going to face maybe a six to ten games suspension. We have no idea how this is going to go, and it could be at a pivotal time. He's still going in the fifth round. I don't really understand that. In another example is Jordanatis and Jordan Datis. We knew the three games suspension was coming, he was going, and he's fallowing fifteen spots in ADP. So I was like, Okay, well, I'll get more exposure later. It just I don't understand why the market isn't reacted to this at all. So I thought that was like just one of the strangest thing of like, I know everyone in these drafts with the most part are paying attention, but it seems like they were just kind of missing something like that.

00:26:54
Speaker 1: Yeah.

00:26:54
Speaker 2: I mean the Addison thing is really interesting to me because I I've mentioned this on the show before, but I I had had a back and forth one of my live streams with somebody about that Addison suspension because I passed on him in a draft when it made sense for my build.

00:27:06
Speaker 1: But I said to myself, I'm going.

00:27:08
Speaker 2: To get exposure to him later when his ADP inevitably drops. Even though I think anyone that was like relatively paying attention to what was going on knew. We knew in like May that Addison was likely going to get a three game suspension, and so it's just one of those things we had to kind of try to read them like it was possible that it was already baked in, you know, to his ADP. But to me, it's like when when people see that out tag, you know, when they see the questionable tag or any of these tags by these players' names, you can expect that player to drop. There was even a period of time where literally every single one of my drafts, and you can go watch the live streams of these two, every single one of my drafts. I was drafting Ricky Piersoll when he was on PUP you know, at the start of the training camp, and we all knew that it was it was more of just a formality at that point, right for him to eventually get back to doing things that that's been I mean, I think it's a really good point to bring up, because to me, that's that's one way with these like you know, summer long drafts to really extract some value.

00:28:08
Speaker 6: Yeah, And like I think Piercell was going in the nineties at one point there, and that was maybe before is like I don't know, training camp pipe with him dominating targets when Jawan Jennings is out, I Yuk is out, so like he's you know, his tart competition is a bunch of Jabroni's so I mean I would expect him to do so, but now he's up to like the sixties. So yeah, just like having a tag mix to player's name on DraftKings, I don't know if it's like some subconscious thing or just like people just don't want to draft him. Maybe a mixture of both, but yeah, I think the tag makes a massive difference.

00:28:34
Speaker 1: So this is kind of related to that.

00:28:36
Speaker 2: And I want to ask because you know, you get quench on Judkins, so like I was mostly I've just been fading Judkins all off season, right like, and I think I've drafted him once in my Milli's I'm up to about one hundred and forty of them so far, Like I said, I have about ten left. But then there's you know, a Mecha Buka who's been steaming up draft boards. There's you know, now Jacory Krossky Merrit Bill who comes out we're recording this on Tuesday, so last Night comes out has a big touchdown run, and of course the fantasy community won't be rational, you know about the fact that he still was playing with the second stringers and he was still not, you know, starting for Washington. But I think that we see the path where that's generally going. Now, some of these situations, like the JCM one, you know I was buying into is this is a selfish question too?

00:29:20
Speaker 1: You know I was buying into that.

00:29:21
Speaker 2: I was obviously buying into a Mega Buka early, but I wasn't buying into like a Quinn Shawn Judkins, right or in the opposite from an opposite perspective, I was buying a lot into like Darnell Mooney. And then Mooney gets an injury and he falls. So the question I have is more at a high level. And obviously I'm assuming that some of this is going to be you know, individualized, and it matters player by player.

00:29:43
Speaker 1: But when you see.

00:29:44
Speaker 2: These shifts in ADP for these summer long drafts, you know, for these three months drafts or tournaments that are going on where you know that in May people are going to get different ADPs than the ADPs that we're getting here in August. Is it a situation where where you invest in players at their new prices if you do or don't have exposure earlier on, Like maybe we could just use the Judkins example as one. So I'm fading Judkins. I've faded Judkins. Now he's an eleventh round pick. Let's say, right, should I now go into this and say I got to get some Judkins because eleventh round still isn't that crazy and I should have.

00:30:24
Speaker 1: Some exposure if he is the Cleveland Browns RB one.

00:30:29
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it all depends on your risk tolerance.

00:30:31
Speaker 6: So from like a macro perspective, I would probably add a little bit. But at this point, you know, again, if you're one forty in, you have one percent, Like getting him almost in every draft of your last ten is probably not going to really make or break the difference. And so I think, like at that point, your bags are just kind of packed and you are You're where you're at. But like from a micro standpoint, so like as someone who I do a lot of work in like the betting prop markets, et cetera, this is like a very similar concept to just like you know, a sunk cost fallacy of essentially, so like if I want to bet an under on Tony Pollard at fifty yards, say and say the new prop is the line move it's forty yards. Like I think you have to evaluate each circumstance like individually. It's like just because it was at fifty and it's now a forty doesn't mean that forty isn't the value. It's all about just like reevaluating that at such points. So at mechag Buka is another example he brought up as well. So like he was in the nineties for a long time and it was a mecha Buca versus like Josh Downs or versus you know again Darnel Mooney for a long time. Then it got you know, seemed up a little bit long more and it was, you know, a mecha Bucher versus Ricky Piersoll and you know, maybe even Juwan Jennings. Now we're at the point where it's like against Jalen Waddell and Travis Hunter. Like at that point I was kind of out, you know, like I have a lot of mecha Bucher early, but you know, we got to the point where it's like constantly reevaluating you know, do I like this player or this player basically at all times? And so now at this point too, we have the Jalen McMillan news that just happened, you know, probably an hour before we recorded herself. I mean, would you be surprised to see him go in the mid fifth?

00:31:56
Speaker 5: Like I wouldn't.

00:31:57
Speaker 6: I wouldn't at this point at all. Which again, but the McMillan, I mean, it couldn't. It could matter a little bit because it just adds another path of like Ibukah is gonna be on the field all the time seeing a ton of targets in a pretty good offense.

00:32:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean the way that I kind of look at it too is that like we can, we can vote, and I'm gonna let you respond and see if I'm thinking about this correctly, because I think others might be thinking.

00:32:18
Speaker 1: About this too.

00:32:19
Speaker 2: But like I look at it as is a mechagbuka in that position, Like you said, like is he still a good pick?

00:32:25
Speaker 1: Yes or no? So you check that box yes or no. But there's also.

00:32:28
Speaker 2: Nineteen other picks that are going on in that draft where adp has shifted and morphed and is not the same as it was you know before, So you might be getting values now that you wouldn't or maybe not values as much, but we have a better idea of what depth charts might look like and such, So you're getting a clearer picture of what's going on now, so you can make more optimal choices maybe late in your draft. So even if you're getting Agbuka in round five, let's say, instead of round seven or round eight, you know, later in your draft, you might also just be getting better values in general because you're you obviously have more information than you did you know back in Man and June.

00:33:03
Speaker 6: Yeah, and I think that goes back to the argument too of like, oh, if a player shoots up five rounds but you didn't get him, you know at that round, Like are you is the contest over? Like do you lose if that player smashes? And yeah, you're certainly at a disadvantage, but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't take them at you know, their new price, because you're still gonna have a uique build in other areas, Like you mentioned, you have more information in later rounds.

00:33:23
Speaker 5: You talked about you know, maybe a Jalen.

00:33:25
Speaker 6: Ryder rose On Johnson who were heavy on earlier, you're probably not taking those guys anymore where you were before, and so you have unique builds in those situations. So yeah, I don't think that there's like it's just an end all be all, but I do think that you could should still be taking a guy if you think independently that they're a better pick at their ADP.

00:33:41
Speaker 1: Yeah.

00:33:41
Speaker 2: I think sometimes, like for at least the discourse that I see with Best Ball bros, Like it gets dumbed down way too much where it's like, oh, Devon a Chan is now going to be you know, although before the John EU news he kind of was in the spot that he's getting drafted now anyway, But like, you know, let's just use this example, like let's say that Devon a Chan falls to the two return or something like that, and then obviously you know these Jamar teams who now have Devon ah Chan. You're sitting there and you're like, well, game over. But to me, I'm like, okay, that's that's two picks of eighteen, number one, number two.

00:34:12
Speaker 1: We can't just assume, yes, Like I like Devon ah Chan and I would expect him to do well in fantasy football, but.

00:34:18
Speaker 2: We can't assume that, like he has a stellar season, that he's not hurt, that he hits at the right time. Like there's just so many iterations and things that can go right or wrong that to me, it just seems to dumb down that argument a little bit.

00:34:31
Speaker 6: Yeah, And every year it seems like the teams that make the finals, you're like, oh, like that was it makes sense, you know, on hindsight, but like now, like in the time, you're like, oh, maybe I wouldn't have thought to do that, or maybe you know, like none of the stuff that we worried about and we thought about actually came to fruition and it was actually just a pretty normal team that just had really good players.

00:34:49
Speaker 5: Yeah, So I don't know, that's kind of how I approach it at least. Yeah.

00:34:52
Speaker 2: I mean like in the end, like if a Mecha Buca has a monster season, it doesn't really matter where you drafted him, right, Like, Like if you draft have been around late round four versus round eight or something like that, and he's just a dude who completely blew up, yes, you would rather have him in round eight. But if he's like that dude and you still got decent value, you know, in round five, round six, round seven. I just have a hard time thinking that like that's going to make or break your season in the way that people talk about it.

00:35:19
Speaker 6: Yeah, and like you said, you react the rest of the drafts, so like, yes, you're using a round four pick on it, but then you still have all your other picks to potentially make new picks and new information. So like again that during that, what has it been like the last couple of weeks?

00:35:30
Speaker 5: I think a month.

00:35:31
Speaker 6: Maybe that were shot up thirty spots, So I mean a lot has changed since then, and a lot's going to change tomorrow and next week and every single time we're doing drafts.

00:35:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent.

00:35:39
Speaker 2: All right, I got to talk about the preseason because obviously going on right now, we saw Jacory Grosky Merritt do what he did last night. I mean, Chris Rodriguez too, uh to start that game. How much do you factor in the preseason to your evaluation and how you're drafting these guys, Like what are the things that you're looking for?

00:35:57
Speaker 6: Yeah, And I think that there's a ton of great analysis on pre in usage, but I think it mostly matters in my opinion for like fringe guys and rookies specifically, so less about the studs and more about you know, guys like Trey Harris I thought would be a Day one starter, turns out he's behind Mconkeie QJ, Keenan Allen, and KeAndre Lambert Smith is playing as qj's backup right now, which is fleshed out in like most of the preseason stuff.

00:36:18
Speaker 5: Does that mean the tray hars is a bad pick?

00:36:19
Speaker 6: Not necessarily in fantasy, but it means that right now he's probably not gonna play like that all that much early on in the season. And I think the same can go for like someone like Kyle Williams, someone like Pat Bryant, and then adversely, someone like Dante Thornton who is playing over jack Bash and is playing with the ones and it's probably going to be locked in Week one starter. So like, I think those are the types of things that are more signal than noise. I think there's a lot of, like I don't know, micro trends and things that are smaller that I don't necessarily buy or don't do too much with.

00:36:47
Speaker 5: I guess if that makes sense.

00:36:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you're not buying that brock Bauers is gonna have like a seventy percent route participation this year.

00:36:53
Speaker 5: No, Like I just can't get there. I mean, he's he's awesome.

00:36:57
Speaker 6: I mean's he's like their best player by good margin, and like I would just be shocked if they're giving anyone other than him, Like yeah, I mean yeah, he's been a crush I think still, so I'm not worried about that.

00:37:07
Speaker 5: All. I'm taking the value on him as much as I can.

00:37:10
Speaker 2: Like I understand the thirst for you know, football and for understanding how these new coaching staffs might deploy these players. But I'm with you where like I'd much rather look at their their body of work in the NFL watching them actually play and actually produce in meaningful games to me, And I think that also extends to some degree too, And I'd love to hear your thoughts on this to like, like the Jacksonville backfield, for instance, right where we're seeing this rotation of like Tank Bigsby and Travis Etn and Basehaelle Tutan's been playing behind.

00:37:40
Speaker 1: And I think that like that's the information where we're like, okay, more.

00:37:43
Speaker 2: Than likely Baseheall Tuton's not going to be like heavily involved to start the season, right, but we can like him towards the back half of the season whatever, you know. I saw, like if you watch that that Jags preseason game, we saw that that dump off to to Tank Bigsby, right, and he had a decent gain out of it. And I saw a bunch of tweets where they were like, oh, I thought Tank Bigsby couldn't catch, and YadA, YadA, YadA. In my opinion, I would assume that teams are trying to put players in certain positions that they are not typically, like Braylan Allen playing third down for instance.

00:38:15
Speaker 1: Is that is that signal? Does that matter? Maybe?

00:38:17
Speaker 2: But maybe not, Like I don't think that we can run away and be like Breese Hall, one of the best pass catching running backs in football, isn't gonna be on the field on third downs.

00:38:25
Speaker 5: You know.

00:38:25
Speaker 2: Maybe they like Bringlan Allen's pass pro whatever, But to me, it's also about repetitions, right, It's about seeing what these guys are actually capable of doing and then being able to evaluate more deeply versus what you're just seeing out of these guys in practice.

00:38:38
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's such a good point too.

00:38:39
Speaker 6: I mean, Isaiah Davis was out too, who like was in the first game played as like the pass catching guy there and Brendan Allen just mixed in on early Dot. So yeah, I think that there's there's a whole layer that we don't really understand as like outsiders like the industry that you see NFL players come out all the time like so, I think the Caleb Williams clip went viral of like him throwing into the neck and they were like, yeah, this is a drill. We had to get the ball out as fast as he possibly could, and he was trying to just like whip it in. It was like throwing screen passes basically, and so no one understood that context. All Fantasy Twitter saw was like Caleb Williams looking like an idiot missing the.

00:39:09
Speaker 5: Three plays, like.

00:39:12
Speaker 6: What a loser and so but then NFL players like, no, this is just like how this works, you know, and we outsiders don't really know that. And I think that there's something similar for fantasy for a preseason, where like coaches are trying new things to your point, or they're trying to put players in other spots that maybe they aren't going to. But yes, I think that there's like some good macro trends, but at the same time, like for nitpicking every single thing about where player lines up, I don't know that there's like as much signal as we want to believe at this point, just because based on like how granular we're getting with everything with all of our analysis of it.

00:39:40
Speaker 2: I just thought of a really bad analogy that I'm gonna throw out there. It's sort of like looking at a draft board, a fantasy draft board, without knowing the scoring and the and the requirements, right, like like there, I was at the King's Classic in Canton last week, where I guess a week and a half ago, and I did the king the King's Classic Snake draft where you're starting a quarterback, two running backs, three wide outs, three flexes, and it's full PPR, right, So of course I'm gonna go with like a hero RB just pound wide receiver, especially as the rest of the room has was more running back heavy than I expected. And then the board gets tweeted without any context of like what the league is, and people are like, what is JJ doing drafting six wide receivers in the first seven rounds. But then obviously once you get that context, you're able to sort of understand a little bit. Maybe that analogy doesn't hit, maybe it does. We'll move on to the next question, quarterback. How have you handled the quarterback position on DraftKings this year? Have you noticed yourself going towards the Big four? Maybe you've seen it as a Big five with Joe Burrow? Are you waiting more frequently? You know, we get to that area of the draft where there's often that quarterback run in that like round ten to twelve area.

00:40:44
Speaker 1: How have you been handling it?

00:40:46
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean so DraftKings, I basically draft three in almost every draft. Underdog obviously is a little bit more up in the eighteen verse, twenty rounds, et cetera. But I think, you know, it really depends. Like so lately, I found myself drafting a decent amount of Lamar and Josh Josh Allen kind of in that like middle third, and then if they followut all to the late third, I'm definitely picking them there. There's kind of like this weird dead zone for me where I feel really good about the guys, like the wide receivers in like the early fourth, like mid fifth, and I feel pretty good about like you know, up to Jasenish in the third round, but Davante has the Stafford things. Marv is not really one of my guys this year, and I'm not drafting any Breeze Hall, not much Kenneth Walker. So like this three fourth turn for me has been mostly just a dead zone essentially of like guys that I don't really want. So I'm either pulling guys up from the fourth round in there or luckily getting a quarterback. And so I have no problem taking one of Lamar, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts to some extent, and then Jayden Daniels is tough because of the Terry McLaurin situation, I think so, but I would I would love him in that group, assuming Terry plays, assuming he's there. I think he's a fine addition to that group. And I know that Terry was. I mean he was like a mid third, early third guy. So like a three to fourth stack of Daniels McLaurin is very much in play right now in draft, if not a reach at this point, and like I think viable relative to the current players there. So yeah, I've been taking a some out of them and then if not basically trying to take two quarterbacks in that ten to twelve range and then one more later guy as well, kind of in like the I don't know, Darnold maybe so I had some stafford. I'm a little bit skittish at this point, to be honest. But and then we can get into it later with some of my favorite stacks. But I got I got a surprise late guy that I'm sure you'll love.

00:42:18
Speaker 1: Okay, okay, okay, Yeah. No.

00:42:20
Speaker 2: I think that's been a consistent theme with a lot of these interviews, is people and I agree, like I hate you know, unless someone falls, unless like a T. Higgins falls, or like I've been drafting a ton of JSN recently basically because of what you're talking about, right, Like, because I can make the Bowl argument for him, but then I can't make that argument for and I need to like not just draft the Mari and Hampton and stuff, you know, like I need to diversify a little bit and not just like go with the same build over and over again. But yeah, man, that like that mid to late third versus the late fourth, early fifth, I don't really see a big difference in player value at that point, right And I do think that it's kind of nice the way that it's laid out because I do think that the early second round is better than the late second round, right, and so because of that, at least the back half of the first is still getting you know, good pairing to start the draft, so maybe it evens out and just in terms of fairness at the end of the day.

00:43:14
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, I'm with you.

00:43:15
Speaker 2: It's it's a really really awkward and weird and sometimes sometimes when you are in the middle of the draft you get stuck with just like one pick right before you over and over and over again, and just a very frustrating draft.

00:43:26
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's one of the I think drafting from the end is one of the challenging parts because, like you said, not because of the one two turn. I mean, you can pair some of those awesome receivers, but it's Brian Thomas, Nabors Nico, et cetera. But it's the three four turn that just I like im, you know, banging my head against the wall every time I'm there because I just don't know what to do. So I've been mixing it up, doing a wide variety of different things as well as draft is George Kittle as well in that spot.

00:43:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think That's also why we've seen like Travon Henderson get drafted a lot higher, like into that third round area because obviously the steam is there. But like, I don't think that there's like nearly as big of an opportunity difference in doing that versus when you were drafting him in like you know, early round five or something. You know, like I, I can understand why people might want to go that route, So keep that in mind. You know, while while you're drafting, is you know you as in the listener, if you feel like you're forcing it a little bit, you're probably not in that area of the draft. I have the exact same question for you, but with tight ends, because it does feel like there is just that big three.

00:44:24
Speaker 1: Are you attacking them and getting them a lot?

00:44:26
Speaker 2: And then you know, are you going after the Laporta Hockinson, you know, Andrew's Kelsey type tier or are you kind of going big or going home?

00:44:36
Speaker 6: Yeah, So admittedly I don't have as much of that middle tier as you mentioned, like the little Porta Hawkinson Kelsey tier. I think that Hawkinson is fine, you know, like and Laporte, I've been mixing in a little bit. I don't have very much Kelsey this year. Outside of like if I'm taking like a Chief Stack or something like that, I do have a lot of George Kittle for a lot of the same reasons that I mentioned in that three four turn. I've been fine taking him. I took him a bunch in the early mid fourth. Now with all the injuries and everything, like I I've been taking the late third if I really, you know, think that that's right for the build and then falling Boers. We already talked about that, like mid to late second I think is more than in play for him, but also a guy if I haven't early pick I'm fine taking Trey McBride at the two three turn as well. So I've taken you know, you start with Chase and then one of like one of the running backs is usually there, whether it's Jacobs, you know, I guess not Chase Brown anymore, but he used to be the right around there, Bucky Irving, and then Trey McBride, so like you can start with a one one one, you know, start there with Trey McBride. So and then I think you bear those guys with some of like the super high upside or just like late tight ends that are there, Like, I think Chig is really interesting, Mason Taylor, like in you go getting these guys like fifteen, sixteen, seventeen, eighteenth round like, and I think there's a lot of good like late round tight ends this year. So I think pairing one of the elite guys with you know, one or two of the other players is interesting. Another guy that I've been taking a lot of is like after that, Andrews Tier. I was taking a bunch of Tyler Warren and Colston Lovelin in like the you know, eleventh ish tenth round. Now obviously their eightp's are going up a little bit, so not really actual advice there, but I think that that tier is pretty interesting as well.

00:46:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that the difference with quarterback and tight end is quarterback dries up, right, like, and people recognize that. We've been talking about that all summer, you know, quarterback dries up. People recognize that. And you can't just get a seventeenth round, eighteenth round starter. You gotta now you're going to Jackson Dart and crossing your fingers that the Giants suck and.

00:46:24
Speaker 1: That he's going to start at the end of the year, you know, right, And.

00:46:26
Speaker 2: So it's just a different vibe whereas you can realistically get tight end production, you know late, like you said, Mason Taylor especially, you know Taylor dropped after that high ankle that he miraculously both both him and Justin Field's now that I'm thinking about it, they came back so much quicker than anyone expected them to come back from those injuries. You know, Fields had that toe, Mason Taylor had that high ankle, and then like he was back in like a week, and the market isn't always like adjusting back for that.

00:46:52
Speaker 1: But like like you said, there's just a lot of.

00:46:54
Speaker 2: Dudes you know that you can get late at tight end, and it makes it pretty attractive to go.

00:46:58
Speaker 1: With a build like that. All right, He's this a little bit.

00:47:01
Speaker 2: So I'm very curious who are some of your go to stacks here in twenty twenty five.

00:47:07
Speaker 6: Yeah, so one of my favorites is forty nine er stacks. So I think Kittle, one of Piersoll and Jennings and then Purdy in the hundreds is just like such an easy stack. You really don't ven up the four so you can get it from basically wherever spot you're in for the most part. So I have a ton of those and then another one. I just can't get enough of the Cowboys passing game. I mean, the running back room is the worst in the league. They added George Pickens, their defense is not very good, especially in the secondary. In my opinion, all that means is a ton of passing, probably super concentrated target share between Pickens and Ceedee Lamb, maybe some Jake Ferguson.

00:47:37
Speaker 5: But then you can add him late again.

00:47:38
Speaker 6: He's like, you know, middle round pick I don't think he's very good, but he's gonna catch a lot of.

00:47:41
Speaker 5: Balls, probably because of volume.

00:47:43
Speaker 6: So I think all those guys with Dak is a really good one and then you just touched on him here a little bit. So I do have a just ridiculous amount of Jackson, Dart Late, Mysterius Slayton, and Kio Johnson. The Giant schedule like is so insanely difficult. Russ can play good, he can play well, he can play decent, honestly, and they are probably still going to be like two and six, like three and seven, three and seven in these first couple of weeks, because I mean just it's like at Washington, at Dallas, Kansas City Chargers. They have an easy game at New Orleans. Then it's Philly, Denver, Philly, sanm Fran Chicago. Like, how does RUSS survive? How does Russ survive this? Like, because when you're the ownership be drafted Jackson Dart, dables on the hot seat, Shane's on the hot seat. You have to make a change at some point, and you're getting Dart for the playoffs. So I mean, I'm not banking on him being like an early season contributor, but I think anywhere from like week five to nine, I think makes a lot of sense.

00:48:37
Speaker 1: I'm totally with you. It's one of the easiest stacks you can go with.

00:48:41
Speaker 2: You can even you can even get a bringback with like a Deontay Thornton or something for that for that Week seventeen game. But I think Theo Johnson's been a great value. Darius Slayton's just kind of like an obvious and easy go to late. But I'm with you from the standpoint of, like you should be drafted. In my opinion, you should be drafting Jackson Dart if you think the Giants are not a playoff team, because there's almost a zero percent chance that they don't see that. We don't see some Jackson Dart this season. If they're like a three or four win team. You know, let's say that they're four and eight at some point, right and Russell Wilson's still starter. What's the youth Because both, like the entire staff, their jobs are on the line too, So if they show that they got it right with Jackson Dart, then they could hypothetically potentially keep that job. You're over ear and I think that we're seeing kind of like the opposite of that happen right now with like Indianapolis and the way that they've handled things with the quarterback situation, where like they're like, oh, we need to win. Our jobs are on the line, and you need to have buy in from owner, front office to coaching staff to really have like a seamless like Okay, no, we're gonna be logical with this.

00:49:41
Speaker 1: Otherwise you just get illogical.

00:49:43
Speaker 2: And maybe Daniel Jones does a lot better than I think he's gonna do, but you get an illogical, you know, decision because in my opinion, like Indianapolis is looking at what's going on there and they're saying, no, we're gonna go Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson because that's the only way that we could win instead of just giving Anthony Richardson some reps, right, And I feel like with the Giants there might be a little bit more buying across all levels where they're like, okay, you know, if Russ is not good's if he's dust, or if we just don't win, like you said, Jackson Dart steps in, if he shows us something over the final five six games of the year, then they could keep their jobs hypothetically, right, And so that's why, Yeah, I mean, I'm all for them.

00:50:23
Speaker 6: And it's one of the problems that I know Bears fans any listeners have you know, understood for a while. It's like a misalignment between ownership, the front office, and the coaching staff, where like the goals aren't always aligned. So like in an ideal world, you have a really long leash with Anthony Richardson and he's playing a lot and he's like, you know, growing and developing, and that was like the goal along Now injuries and poor play has been a problem, but now they're the point where like they have to win, and so they are making the decision of like who gives me the best chance to win right now? Is that the best decision for the Colts long term? No shot, Like there's no way that that is the best decision, but it's the best shot chance for Stiching and the front office keep their jobs.

00:50:58
Speaker 5: And so that's that's the problem. And then same goes to the Giants.

00:51:01
Speaker 6: I think the Giant situation is different where they feel like, Okay, we can give Russ a shot. If he's cooking and they're winning, like that they hit it, and if not, then they still have the chance of like selling Jackson Dart as you mentioned, so like they have two outs to keep their jobs. I think the culture really in trouble honestly at this point.

00:51:16
Speaker 5: Yeah.

00:51:16
Speaker 2: I also think the Giants have a low key, decent roster, Like it's not like a you know like that that that front can do can do work. On the on the defensive side, they obviously have you know, Molik neighbors, and their their backfield looks a lot better and like so you can like see how the Giants would think that they're more competitive than they will based on you know, like they're not looking at the schedule.

00:51:35
Speaker 1: The way that we would. I mean, they probably are.

00:51:37
Speaker 2: But like you know, you as a football player slash football coach slash front office, you don't get handed the schedule.

00:51:43
Speaker 1: And be like, oh my god, we're screwed, like like you're.

00:51:46
Speaker 2: Not gonna have that attitude. But you know, as analysts, I think that we can look at it and say, yeah, they're probably screwed, and we'll probably see Jackson Dart sooner rather than later. All Right, two more questions before I let you go. Who are some of your biggest targets this year? You can give me a couple of guys and then some of your biggest the void. So you obviously gave us some stacks, But what about individual players.

00:52:03
Speaker 6: Yeah, a guy that I've been drafting a ton of lately, Tony Pollard. I think he should be a five to six turn guy. So you know, he's still going like mid late sixth, but I there's something the market's cut up. He had, Oh lines, better offense should be way more efficient with cam Ward. I mean, people aren't really talking about the upside outcome of cam Ward taking a even like a eighty percent, you know, sixty percent Jayden Daniels leap in your one and really turning this team around, Like I think that's very much in his range of outcomes and so like again, a more efficient offense, and then you have Taj Spears high ankle sprain. The Titans talked about today how they need more running back depth and like need a backup running back like I and then beyond that too, like last year, even when the coaching staff is like, yeah, we want Taji Spears to be involved, I mean, they just didn't follow up on that, Like it was just Tony Pollard when he was healthy. He had suffered through his own inkle injuries as well. But I think he's in a good spot to you know, again be a fringe workhorse, you know, running back at this point in an offense that could surprise and so like he's going to see a lot of work and I think is a pretty good pick at this point, especially if you missed out a running back early. I think he's like a great for me kind of zero or here a RB like addition in like the you know, five to six turn in that range. Another one I mentioned him earlier briefly a little bit. Tyler Warren I think is really really interesting, Like I know he's up to the eighties and He's another guy that we touched on too, of like chasing players, you know, in a certain ADPs. I think in some situations he's still kind of find where he's going in the mid eighties, you know, Downs is banged up.

00:53:21
Speaker 5: Pittman I think is very much fine.

00:53:23
Speaker 6: Daniel Jones, I think provides a little bit higher of a ceiling for the passing game, but also too like Tyler Warren played over forty snaps at quarterback, running back, out wide, in line, in the slot in his final season at Penn State. Like with Anthony Richardson out, I wouldn't be surprised if they use Tyler Warren with some goal line stuff, if they give him more design stuff. So like I think it's upside here is pretty significant if he can be like a half decent tight end, plus any design stuff for him as well. So those are two my like my favorite ones. But then one more late late round one that I have that's like a best ball only not buying in redraft. Ray Ray McLeod, I have a lot of played, Like I even sent the snaps last year. Mooney's out Penix I think his targets are at tennis was awful, like I'm not gonna get around it, but he's gonna play a lot on a team that I think should throw more, and like he had some games where he popped last year. He's like a nineteenth round pick, twentieth round pick, Like he's gonna have some spike weeks in redraft. He's like no upside to become an alpha. He has no upside to like really be like the guy. But I think he's gonna provide some like usable floor weeks plus like some spike weeks in best Ball, which is not a popular take, but I'm he's one of my higher owned players. And I don't feel love saying out loud, but I'm dying with the ship here.

00:54:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, that's my my at least not as much anymore. But my Ray Ray McCloud is Devon Vley. So I'm I'm with you on the completely ran but at least yours has this like very obvious path to volume. Right now, it's like no one's adjusted at all based on the Darnaul Mooney stuff and based on the fact that Kyle Pitts, we can't just assume he's gonna be good all of a sudden, right, So it's really just Drake London, and Drake London also has not really shifted at all based on the Darnaul Mooney's.

00:55:00
Speaker 6: I've been taking some Drake London like early second like trying to find some unique pairings of the one two turn using London, because I mean he had thirty one targets in two games with Penixs last year.

00:55:10
Speaker 5: Darnell MOONI is hurt.

00:55:11
Speaker 6: He could just like outright crush, Like what if he just gets targeted ten times a game?

00:55:15
Speaker 5: Like he's like a top three pick next year.

00:55:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I have him in the same tier as all the other you know, late first round type players, So I'm I'm definitely with you. And then who are some of the guys you're fading this year? I think that's the always the more difficult question to answer.

00:55:28
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean there's some obvious ones. So I have like one percent breissee Hall, one percent, Brandon Ayuke, one percent, Chris Godwin. I have no Joe Mixon and I won't be drafting Joe Mixon and no matter the price. Kind of a more surprising one, I guess interesting is like two guys in the mid fourth round and like late or late fourth round, early fifth. I don't have much Chuba Hubbard or Alvin Kamara. And it's not necessarily like an indictment of them. I think they're both like fine. I don't like hate them. It's just that I love those wide receivers like I want those, you know, the George Pickens, the tees to one point, the DJ Moore is like in that range, Like I want all of those guys almost on every single team, and so I've kind of found myself with like a pretty hard fade on some of those like late fourth early fifth running backs, and so Chew, Bobard and Kamara have kind of been the main culprit of that.

00:56:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have very very similar builds.

00:56:19
Speaker 2: Tuba, I have question marks about his pass catching upside, and then with Kamara, I mean I'm not even one that believes that like, oh he's definitely gonna break down at the end of the year or anything like that. It's just been more of a you know, like you said, the wide outs being there just being so like there's just so many high ceiling wide receivers in that range where you're like, yeah, I could see this guy being a top twelve wide out and being a true difference maker in a PPR format best ball format, like you got to probably lean that way, you know, as the tiebreaker more often than not.

00:56:47
Speaker 1: Connor, this was awesome, man.

00:56:48
Speaker 2: Let everyone know where they can find you, what you're working on, all that great great stuff.

00:56:53
Speaker 5: Yeah, I appreciate you having me on.

00:56:54
Speaker 6: You can find me on Twitter at Connor Allen NFL, and you find all of my fantasy football takes and betting takes over at four for four dot com.

00:57:01
Speaker 1: You can get my draft guide over on lateround dot com.

00:57:03
Speaker 2: Make sure you subscribe to the show and check out the YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash at LATEROUNDFF.

00:57:08
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00:57:12
Speaker 2: You can see my ugly mug each and every week otherwise, everyone, as always, thanks for tuning in.