1096: Analyzing Front Office Decision Making

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacheris j J. Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode ten ninety six of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I know a lot of you have rookie drafts going on, so I wanted to get this episode out as soon as I possibly could. My focus has been on the Late Round Prospect gude, which is available right now on Lateround dot com. It's all finished up. It has updated player write ups and zapp scores. But now that it's out the door, my focus has shifted to this episode and I wanted to get it out asap. I don't remember a draft where I was this excited to dig into the post draft analysis. And that might seem backwards because post draft rookie drafts look probably the worst they've ever looked in my time of being a fantasy football analyst. But because this draft wasn't filled with obvious talent, it means there's more to break down. It's not as simple as this guy's really good, so draft this player. We have to think more deeply about the player that we're analyzing. We have to think more deeply about the role that he might play, and that can give an edge to the people who are putting in the work. So let's put in that work. I do this episode after the draft each year where instead of immediately going over my rookie rankings, which again you can find those in the Late Round Prospect Guide right now, but instead of going over those rankings, I take a step back and I try to analyze what we just watched. We get free agency, sure, but free agency that's not a period where teams are forced to make decisions. They're forced to do things. In the draft, it gives us a chance to see what they might be thinking through their actions rather than through their words, and we can get some help by analyzing those actions. If we thought a team was going to heavily invest in a running back and they chose not to take one at all, that's information. If a team had what we thought was a good wide receiver room but they took one early, that's information. My goal today is to go over what I think these front offices were thinking when they made specific moves in this year's draft. That way, we can take that information and apply it to our fantasy football leagues. So with that let's dig in now. Before getting into some of the individual teams, I want to share some general thoughts. We're all sitting here, we're staring at our late first round rookie picks, and we're asking ourselves how this is even possible, But how we feel about rookie drafts right now? It actually makes plenty of sense. I said time and time again on this show that this year's running back class was bad, and that this year's wide receiver class just had a lot of dudes, a lot of average profiles, and that we'd probably see some of them emerge just because there were enough of them out there that we're going to get Day two draft capital. I think that's exactly what we're seeing right now. Draft Capital showed us that the NFL didn't like this running back class. Meanwhile, we still got a ton of wide receivers selected in the top one hundred. In fact, there were seventeen of them in this class. That's the highest that we've seen since at least twenty eleven. Now, I definitely don't mind most of the first round wide receivers, but the majority of them on Day two have pretty average to blow average analytical profiles In fact, there were seven day two wide receivers in this class who got tagged with a high risk draft capital delta. The most from any other season since twenty eleven has been three. We had seven this year. And by the way, I've gotten some questions about draft capital delta this offseason. People seem to think that it has to do with pre draft draft capital or projected draft capital versus actual draft capital, and I just want to say it has nothing to do with projected draft capital. Draft capital delta is basically how the model views a player versus how the NFL views the player. It says, Okay, this guy's ZAP score is X. Typically with this draft capital, a player at that position would score X minus two. So in that case, if he should be two points lower, then he'd have a positive draft capital delta. The model likes him more than the NFL did. I then bucket those players into low risk, neutral and high risk profiles. The low risk and high risk profiles they are the extreme ones. So with high risk profiles, it's saying that the ZAP model likes those players a whole lot less than where they were actually drafted. Seven Day two wide receivers had high risk profiles, and fourteen wide receivers in total had high risk profiles, the most of any season by a wide margin. But look, analytics isn't going to capture everything. The model isn't going to be one hundred percent right, and that's part of the reason that draft capital is one of the inputs in the ZAP model. So because there are so many players with this good draft capital, someone's gonna emerge more than likely. But who that player is. That's why we feel so crappy about rookie average draft position. It's not that we don't have enough Day two players to choose from. It's that the guys that were choosing from are mostly uninspiring. And then some of the players that people actually liked, they didn't get the best landing spots in the world. So, on one hand, I'm definitely surprised by how this bad class somehow got worse. On the other, I'm not that surprised. The numbers were kind of showing this pre draft. The Eagles were a team who clearly needed some help at pass catcher, given AJ Brown's eventual departure and Dallas Goddard being a free agent after this season. Goddard's also thirty one years old, and they definitely got pass catchers. They took McKay lemon in round one, they got Eli Stowers in round two. Both players as a model likes, which seems to be a rarity in this class. McKay lemon has a very serious slot profile. He ran almost seventy six percent of his routes from the slot across his collegiate career. According to PFF. That's brought some fulls gold profiles. In the past, players like Elijah Moore who had great production profiles, but they also lived in the slot. Really, the list goes on and on. It's not just Elijah Moore, but almost all of those players, aside from someone like Treylon Burks, they were not first round picks since twenty twenty. Here's a list of the first round wide receivers who had slot rates above sixty percent across their collegiate careers. Jerry Judy, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Wattle, Kadarius Tony Drake London, Treylon Burks, Jackson Smith and Jigba Jordan Addison, Amecca Buca, and now mackay Lemon and Casey Concepcione. If you look at seventy percent or more, you get Waddle, Tony Burks, Jsen Abuka, and then the two guys from this class. And for the record, Tony was just not even close to the other guys from production standpoint. Basically, what I'm getting at is, if a team gives a quote slot player first round draft capital, it's highly unlikely that he's going to be a Jaden Reid type player in the NFL, or at least Jayden Reid. So far in the NFL. The dream hasn't died yet, folks. Lemon definitely projects to work in the middle of the field, and from a real football perspective, I love the pairing with Devonte Smith, and it's just another reason I think Smith is in store for a big season. He can stretch the field and he can win as he does in those intermediate and deep routes. Lemon keeps defenses honest with that lower average at the target and working that short area. The Eli Stowers pick definitely makes Lemon a little bit less attractive though. Stowers is a pure pass catching tight end who some believes should play X receiver, but he'll occupy some of the same areas that Lemon will, which again good for the Eagles, bad for fantasy football, and all of that is happening while Jalen Hurts is their quarterback. Now, Personnel can definitely dictate this. But Hurtz avoids the middle of the field more than any other quarterback in football according to Fantasy Points Data and this was dug up by FF Data ROMA on Twitter. But according to Fantasy Points Data and FF Data Roma, Jalen Hurts rang dead last and percentage of throws the middle of the field in twenty twenty four. He was second to last in twenty twenty five. On attempts less than ten yards down the field. Over the middle of the field, Hurts rang thirty eight of thirty nine quarterbacks in twenty twenty four and then thirty second of thirty six and twenty twenty five. That's an area where Mackay Lemon's gonna thrive, or he has thrived historically. I think Lemon is a capable wide receiver, but this landing spot, it means he's got less wiggle room to hit like we need to see that higher end outcome play out or else it could get ugly. But I'm also gonna trust that the Eagles and they're shifting offensive coordinator that they're aware of all of this. I don't think a smart organization makes the two picks that they made without an understanding that things are about to change. Nevertheless, it's something to think about. The Cleveland Browns were unbelievably frustrating in this draft as well, from the standpoint of taking players who could have been Fantasy relevant and placing them on the same team. They got Casey Conceptsion in round one. They followed it up with Denzel Boston in round two. The za moodel Blake's Conceptsione. He actually had a very comparable zapp score compared to Lemon when it was all said and done. But Conceptsion and Boston they're now on a team with Harold Fannin, Jerry Judy, and Cedric Tillman with no answer at quarterback. It's a short term mess. Here's the thing. Though. You may look at McKay Lemon and say the situation isn't that bad, and I'm actually more on the side that people are very unfair to Jalen Hurts just in general. But right now Hurts is not playing like a top ten quarterback, and the Eagles with Hurtz's starter haven't had a single season with a positive pass rate over expected, at least with Cleveland. They're probably not going to be very good this year. They'll have a shot at a quarterback next year in a good class, and then in twenty twenty seven, Tillman's a free agent and the Browns have an out with Jerry Judy's contract. So even if Concepsione or even if Boston have a down season, they may be able to maintain dynasty value with those changes in mind, and I think those changes are likely not unlikely. Kencepcion's also just a much cleaner prospect than Denzel Boston in my opinion. Boston was one of those Day two picks who he was slapped with the high risk Draft capital delta and his yards pro out run profile something that doesn't even go in the model. It's not very robust Conceptsion had a seventy eight percentile breakout score, and he had versatility to his profile. And if the Browns give Todd munkin more than just this twenty twenty six season, don't forget that Monkin coach z Flowers to some fantasy relevant seasons in Baltimore. Flowers was also a non traditional wide receiver on the usage front coming out of school, and Flowers was a worse prospect compared to Conceptsion in my opinion. So yeah, short term, after that Boston draft pick, it made me less bullish on Conceptsion, though I do think he has a legit shot to lead that team in targets this year. And when I compare how I feel about Conceptsion versus the market, I'm higher on him. And part of that is the talent profile for sure, but also I think this Browns team could look very different as early as twenty twenty seven, and they knew that when they made those two wide receiver picks. I've got a lot more wide receiver stuff to talk about today, but let's shift our focus to running back really quick. There were a lot of teams out there this year who could have gone after a running back, but they didn't, and that means the players who were already on those rosters they were big winners from a fantasy football perspective. Jacksonville was one of them. There were some rumors flying around pre draft that they were really interested in Jenaium Price, but to me, if they were gonna make a splash, it was likely gonna be on Day three. I felt they were fairly set with their trio of bay Shall, Tuton, Chris Rodriguez, and Laquinn Allen, and they didn't draft a single running back out of ten draft picks. As I said last year, all roads lead to bay Shall Teuton. The Bengals maybe could have gotten helped too, they could have gotten the running back direction, but they clearly are cool with Chase Brown. He's now survived multiple drafts. I thought Chicago was another team they could have maybe gotten a Day three to one. But this was a very big draft for Kyle Mnungai. He's gonna see a good amount of touches in a good offense this year, even if his receiving ceiling is kind of capped. The Texans added David Montgomery this offseason, and they didn't get a running back. Montgomery low Key might be a great fantasy pick this year. The Giants were rumored to be in on Jeremiah Love, and they not only didn't get him, but they didn't get a single running back in this draft, which was smart. I love the Cam Scannaboo Tyrone Tracy combination. It makes a lot of sense as a pairing but teams do weird things, and the Giants were, like I said, they were rumored to do one of those weird things. But it was a good draft for their running backs. And then you could also look at a team like Dallas or even Green Bay. I mean, the Packers depth chart right now is Josh Jacobs okay great, and then it's Chris Brooks, Marshawn Lloyd who can't stay healthy, Pierre Strong and Damian Martinez. A lot of names that we've talked about before, but no one who's really established themselves in the NFL because Emmanuel Wilson's now in Seattle. So with those teams, it was a big win for the guys who were already there. Now. On the flip side, some of the teams who really needed running back help in this draft Tennessee, Seattle, Washington, Minnesota. Those are the teams that really come to mind. The only one of them to really spend up with Seattle. We now have Nick Singleton, k Tron Allen, and DeMont Claiborne as big Risers post draft. Given the situations that they fell to and because this draft class is so weak, their rookie draft ADPs are soaring and I don't even really disagree with it, given the opportunity cost involved in drafting those guys in rookie drafts now. I like Nick Singleton most because I thought he was the most complete running back of the three coming out k Tron. Allen's a bruiser, He's a dog, and I definitely think that he can compete for that early down work in Washington right away, at least the goal line work with Demon Claiborne. He's a super quick running back. He can take on some receiving work, but he's also sub one hundred and ninety pounds. He's likely not going to be a bell coow. I do think he works really well in tandem with like a Jordan Mason player. I really wanted the Vikings though, to get Emmitt Johnson to eventually replace Aaron Jones, but Claiborne could have been worse as a fit. Singleton, though, has the high upside profile there's a low floor, but he's big, he's athletic, and he has a good age adjusted receiving profile. It's a great combination, and Tony Pollard and Tajy Spears could both be gone next year. They're both free agents now day three picks, they don't work out at a high rate at all. We're not talking about Jeremiah Love here, which, by the way, I'm not going to talk about Love on today's show, just because it's kind of obvious that he's gonna be fantasy relevant. He's gonna get a lot of work. But maybe later this week on the mailbag, someone can ask me a question about Jeremiah Love. But anyway, Day three draft picks they don't have a high hit rate at all. But I did do some research on this last year, and it's not surprising, but when Day three running backs do work out as rookies, it's almost always from ambiguous backfields. In fact, in that study last year, I looked at all Day three running backs since twenty one who gave us a particular number of top twenty four and top twelve weeks, top twenty four and top twelve weekly performances. I waited all a certain way, but it gave me a sample of eleven relevant running backs from Day three. James Robinson, Bucky Irving, Alfred Morris, Jordan Howard, Damian Pierce, Eli Mitchell, Zach, Stacy Tyrone, Tracy, Jamal Williams, and Roy hullou and I'm defining day three as players picked after pick one hundred. Only Jordan Howard and Bucky Irving from that group had teammates drafted in the top twenty at running back In season long leagus, the median was more like RB thirty RB thirty one, meaning the market didn't know who the top back was going to be in that backfield at least very confidently, there was opportunity for a Day three pick to emerge. With Day three picks, especially Day three running backs. And to be honest, I'm not counting round four in this as much as round five, six, and seven, But with Day three running backs, unless the profile is just undeniable, I really am just trying to gain value from year one to year two. I don't have high hopes for long term viability. I think Emmett Johnson's profile is very very good, so I'll still buy in there. But even the ZAP model suppresses those kinds of profiles, and it doesn't care as much as it would if that profile was selected on Day two. Emmett Johnson is a Day two running back looks a lot better analytically than Emmett Johnson is a Day three running back. The production metrics just don't matter as much for a Day three back. So to put that all another way, I do think Singleton, Allen, and Claiborne should be thought about in this class. You should consider them. You have at least a shot to gain value from year one to year two. And the alternatives in general in this class at wide receiver, they're just weak. The opportunity cost in drafting one of those Day three running backs in your rookie draft is not that high, and Nick Singleton just happens to be my favorite. Okay, back to the pass catchers, the Jets basically did the same thing that the Browns did, but in reverse they got the very expensive tight end and then they followed that up with a pretty expensive wide receiver. I mean, this just sucks all around. They took Mason Taylor last year, a guy that zat Model really didn't like because his production wasn't that great and he's dust now from a fantasy football perspective. Kenyan Sidik, though I talked about him at length on last week's show. I think he's a great prospect, and when people talk about his production profile being bad, they're really ignoring age. In my opinion his yards per route run. It's comparable through three seasons to other elite tight ends in the NFL. It's just that those elite tight ends played more than three seasons in college. I'm optimistic that Gino Smith can be better behind a better offensive line in New York than he was in Vegas. But to expect him to sustain Garrett Wilson, Kenyan Sadik, and Omar Cooper, who the Jets took at the end of round one, that's a tall task. I also hate that Sadek and Cooper They're built for yards after the catch, so I fear that they're going to be competing a lot for targets. Not good thing. And then all the while they have Breese Haaw out of the backfield, who also takes a hit, but for Sadik in particular, as Brandon Gadola noted in the Prospect Guide with his Sadiq rite up, offensive coordinator Frank Reich has a history of being tight end friendly across ten seasons where he was the team's OC or head coach. His teams are ranked outside the top twenty and tight end target share just once. They were top five four different times, so because of that and just the overall profiles. I prefer Sadiq to Omar Cooper and rookie drafts. Cooper's age, justin production profiles just average according to the model. I actually think the Jets offense could be okay this year, genuinely, but this is sort of like the Browns, except there's already a near elite wide receiver on that team. Now. Fortunately, things can change fast, and the Jets had the draft capital for that to happen. Don't lose sight of that. I want to take a second and talk about the Dolphins in their wide receiver room. They entered the draft with Jalen Tolbert two too at well Malik Washington. As they're starting wide receivers, they need to do something in the draft. They went out. They drafted Caleb Douglas, a shocking pick in round three, and then it took Chris Bell, who honestly went later than I expected. And then Kevin Coleman, a slot guy. He was a Day three pick. Coleman actually has an ok production profile, but he was pretty much only a slot player in college. I'd imagine Malik Washington gets run over him this year. So as a dart throw he's definitely more of a taxi squad guy. Chris Bell's coming off of that ACL But the upside is there. He's built like AJ Brown. Just don't comp him to AJ Brown. Bell has very average, ah, justin production. AJ Brown's was elite. But in this draft class, I'm all for going for that upside. There's downside with literally everyone in round two and beyond in your rookie drafts. I don't mind Coleman, I don't mind Bell. Caleb Douglas though, that was a head scratcher. He wasn't projected to go in the top two one hundred according to NFL Mock Draft database, and it made sense as to why. Among all zapmodel wide receivers since twenty twenty, Douglas had a twenty fifth percentile breakout score, a twenty eighth percentile career yards per hour run rate, a fifteenth percentile best season yards per out run rate, and a twenty third percentile first downs per rout run rate. I mean, the list goes on and on. It's just not a good analytical profile. Now. I'll talk about Douglas later to wrap things up, But to me, from an upside standpoint, Chris Bell is the clear winner here and maybe even Devon a Chan, who now has a better shot at maintaining his crazy high target share. Now, speaking of wide receiver investments, there were teams who didn't invest in the position. That was really surprising to me, especially given all the Day two draft picks at wide receiver. The Patriots didn't take a single wide receiver, another hint that aj Brown could be coming their way. They did take an interesting tight end prospect ninety fifth overall, though in Eli Raridan, Minnesota could have taken one of the day didn't either. But there are two teams where I kind of was shocked by their level of investment. The first was the Raiders. They had an opportunity to take Elijah Surrat in round four and they passed on him to start that round. Sarratt looks good in the ZAP model compared to draft capital, and he comped to a lot of big slot wide receivers like a Michael Thomas type. And it sounds like Baltimore sees that too, based on some of the quotes post draft. That could be really fun for Elijah Sarrat. But Sarat played with Fernando Mendoza last year. He was Mendoza's contested catch guy, and the Raiders didn't get him, despite their starting wide receivers entering the draft being Trey Tucker, Jalen Naylor, and Jack Besh. They did get Malik Benson later in the draft, but he's mostly a deep threat. Honestly, I don't see the allure of him with Trey Tucker on your roster, so that was a surprise for sure. Brock Bauers is probably gonna be fed this year. And then there's the Colts. I recently did a redditt Ama and someone asked me what the last trade that I had done in Dynasty was. This was pre draft, and the trade that I called out was that I sent the two to eight in a rookie draft for Josh Downs, which today I'm feeling great about that. I had mentioned Downs being an interesting by candidate earlier in the offseason, with there being an off chance that the Colts didn't do much to invest in wide receiver, and they didn't. They only took Dion Burks in the last round. Someone who profiles as a slot Josh Downs is better than Dion Burks. That means that at this moment, in two wide receiver sets, for Indianapolis, Josh Downs is competing with Nick Westbrook Akine. I've said for a while that I think Downs can handle that, and now he should get that opportunity, though there are still some useful veterans out there that the Colts could sign. Overall, though, I do think this was a sign that the Colts are ready for Josh Downs to take a bigger role in that offense. I'm crossing my fingers this is finally the year that we see our favorite slot guys get more reps. Those guys being Josh Downs and Jaden Reid. The Saints just went all in on Tyler Shuck. I'm all about it. When you have a player like Shuck who's potentially borderline like you don't know for sure that he's the absolute future, you surround him with weapons, give him everything that you can so you can properly evaluate him without many excuses. So what did the Saints do? They get the wide receiver one in the zap model on Jordan Tyson in the top ten. Matt Harmon's reception perception had Tyson as a huge zone beater and a lave is great against man and Tyson's going to eat up a lot of those intermediate throws from shuck in a fast paced Kellen Moore offense. I love the fit. They then get Oscar Delp, who's a crazy athlete. He did have a questionable production profile, but Delp has a lot of upside a tight end. And then they took another crazy athlete on day three in Bryce Lance. Lance is going to stretch the field vertically and he fits a bigger body. He mold at wide receiver that they don't have a ton in with Chris Lava and Jordan Tyson. Lance has serious red flags with his profile, but he's big, he's athletic, and you can't deny him that. I like the fits here overall, and the offense is friendly for fantasy given the way that Kellen Moore calls plays. Keep in mind, too, the Saints rand eleven personnel at the fifth highest rate in the league last year. I don't think that's gonna change that much given these investments. Back in January, I did my Cell Candidate's episode and R. J. Harvey was on that list. He was a cell candidate, So take this with a grain of salt. I'm just gonna be open and transparent. Maybe I'm gonna come in with the takes today and be a little bit biased. I hope not. I hope that's not the case. I try to think rationally about this stuff, but I've been lower on RJ. Harvey throughout this offseason, so keep that in mind. But I do think that Harvey's dynasty value took a serious hit when the Broncos drafted Jonah Coleman this past weekend. The Zap Model did not love R. J. Harvey. He had a high risk profile, he was older, and his age just a production. It was fine, but not amazing. I just didn't see him as a bell cow back, as an obvious bell cow and I wrote about that, and I talked about that at the start of the offseason, and now I think it's pretty clear he's not a bell cow back. Jonah Coleman enters Denver and Coleman, He's looked at pretty favorably by the Zapp Model. Outside of Jeremiah Love, the model really liked Emmett Johnson, Jonah Coleman into a lesser extent Nick Singleton. From this class, two of the three got pretty good landing spots, and then Johnson's isn't terrible either. But look, I don't think it's all that crazy to at least ask yourself if Jonah Coleman is the better prospect between himself and RJ. Harvey. We obviously now have a year of NFL experience for Harvey, but he was also third worst among forty eight qualified running backs last year in rushing yards over expected per attempt. Harvey found the end zone a lot. He looked fine as a pass catcher, but it was not some incredible season from him. So I asked this question to myself and the Prospect Guide readers. With Jonah Coleman, is he actually the better prospect compared to RJ. Harvey? Now, the ZAP model sides with Harvey, but that's simply because a draft capital. I think it's closer than we probably realize. In terms of zapmodel inputs, Coleman has a better pro rated reception share and adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt Harvey. He bested him an adjusted total yards per team play in his best season. The advanced numbers are sort of a mixed bag. Coleman was an eighty ninth percentile player in yards after contact per attempt, Harvey was sixty six percentile. Harvey and Coleman avoided tackles at a near identical rate, and both were great at it in college, and then Harvey admittedly is more explosive. That's a big differentiator between Coleman and RJ. Harvey. But I don't know, man. I think that Jonah Coleman could step in at the very least be part of a committee and be maybe the goal lineback. He's the same height as RJ. Harvey, but Coleman weighs fifteen mores. He's just a legitimate, do it all back. He may not do one thing in a very elite way, but he does everything well. I think we see a three headed backfield this year with the two of them in JK. Dobbins, and if Coleman shows us something, which I think is very possible, I would not be shocked if he's looked at more favorably than RJ. Harvey in the dynasty market as we enter the twenty twenty seven season. Keep in mind, too, Coleman's entering the league before turning twenty three years old. RJ. Harvey was twenty four years old when he was drafted. That's not irrelevant here. So I think Coleman is the clear RB three in this class, and I don't think Denver makes a move like that. If they're totally secure with RJ. Harvey being the workhorse in typical Sean Payton form, we're probably gonna see a committee. The last thing that I want to get to today is a topic that everyone seems to be talking about on social media right now, which is reaches comparing actual draft capital to consent since draft boards. I did an episode on this actually last year, episode nine to seventy seven. I shared results of a study where I looked at NFL mock draft database data and compared it to where players were actually drafted. And instead of just looking at the raw number of picks that were different, like instead of just saying this guy was drafted one hundredth overall, but the big board set one hundred and twenty, so that's a twenty pick difference, I used pick value, and that value was derived from Chase Stewart's draft pick value chart. That chart was designed to say that pick one is worth xen value, pick two is worth x minus y, pick three is then worse than that, and then pick four, et cetera, et cetera. So realistically, if a player was projected to go ninth overall, he ends up going third overall. That's a much more significant jump than if he was projected to go one hundred and twentieth overall and he went one hundredth overall. From a fantasy football perspective, I have found that reaches generally matter at least a wide receiver. The mock draft data goes back to twenty sixteen, and since that point in time, there have been fifteen wide receivers who have had a chance to play three years in the NFL whose teams lost four more points in value in drafting them. They're the fifteen biggest reaches at wide receiver from twenty sixteen through twenty twenty three. Essentially, of those fifteen, just five were able to outproduce their expected B two S. B two S is a metric that I use in the ZAP model that represents a player's best two seasons PPR points per game output across his first three years in the league. It takes his best two seasons and averages them together. That's why I'm looking at players who have played at least three years in the NFL. I can look at history to see what type of B twos we'd expect from a wide receiver at a particular draft slot, and historically, players who are this big of reaches, they've underperformed versus expectation. Only five of fifteen didn't, and only three of those players outperform their B two s X by one or more PPR point. Those three were Deontay Johnson, Wandel Robinson, and Kenny Galladay. What's interesting is that we've had more of these players show up over the last couple of drafts. Pat Bryant, Chim Ray, dk Arian Smith, Isaac Teslaw from last year's draft and then from this year's you get Carnel Tait just because he was drafted so early and those picks are so valuable. But even if you want to throw him out, Caleb Douglas, Design Shribbling, Xavian Thomas, and Caden Wegen. Now it does get better beyond that four points in value lost for NFL teams. And maybe this is just a small sample size noise. We have to be open about that. But I do think that we've seen reaching for wide receivers be a bad thing historically. Now I'm running back it hasn't been as bad at the extremes We've often seen some big misses at the position when teams reach, which scares me about Kaylon Black. He went to San Francisco on day two. This isn't new for Kyle Shanahan. Since he got to San Francisco, He's now drafted three of the eight biggest reaches at running back in the ZAP Model database. You had ty Davis Price as the second biggest reach, Black as the sixth biggest, and then Joe Williams is the eighth biggest. And if you remove Round one running backs because Ezekiel Elliott and Jamior Gibbs are on that list, those San Francisco running backs are three of the top six reaches at running back and ZAP Model history. He's also now drafted those three running backs Jordan James, Isaac Garndo, Trey Sermon, and Elijah Mitchell since he got to San Francisco. Those are the running backs that he's taken. So, yes, Kaylon Black, he got great draft capital, but the profile is still lacking and the reach aspect of things doesn't make me feel that much better, especially given the history in San Francisco. But I feel even worse about the wide receivers at least with running back, a coach can just throw a guy on the field and let him go. That's why running back doesn't get as much signal with reaches. Probably, wide receivers have to get open and earn those targets. It's not just about running routes. And this year we're looking at Caleb Douglas, design Stribbling, and Xavi and Thomas as the three biggest reaches outside of round one. All three have profiles with a lot of age adjusted red flags. I'm not surprised that we saw some reaches at wide receiver in this draft, bringing all full circle. The drafted a lot of average wide receiver profiles, so teams are going to be all over the place with their evaluations. I think it's just important to not necessarily treat those three wide receivers at face value. Don't assume their draft capital is totally accurate, because historically the combination of poor age justin production and being a huge reach in the draft, it's meant underwhelming fantasy results. That makes me nervous about those three wide receivers being huge fantasy football hits. Though to be fair, I think the dynasty market feels the exact same way, so it doesn't mean that I'm avoiding those players. It just means I wouldn't spend up on them. Those are my general thoughts on what went down over the weekend. There's so much more to talk about that I didn't even get to, but I wanted to touch on the things that I found most interesting. You can always read more about my thoughts on this class by checking out the Late Round Prospect Guide that's found on the Lateround dot com. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and do for to follow me on Twitter and on blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening to everyone. We've got the Late Round Show on Wednesday on YouTube and then a mailbag episode later this week. I'll talk to you then