842: 10 Trends for Week 13

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Round Podcast with with your host JJ zacher rethas j J zacher reefon What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and forty two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before we getting into the trends this week, I wanted to send a reminder about the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. I know the season is getting closer to finishing up, but the patreon includes things like weekly rankings and tiers, monthly dynasty rankings and tiers which include single quarterback and superflex leagues, live stream q and as, data dumps, and more. You can learn more about it over on lateround dot com. Now let's get to these ten trends. Luke Musgrave is on IR, so the Packers are onto their other rookie tight end and Tucker Craft. In Week twelve, Kraft ran a round on eighty one percent of Green Bay's dropbacks. That was the third highest route participate by a Packers tight end this season. Now, it only resulted in a six point seven percent target share, but it does look like Tucker Kraft is gonna be used just like Luke Musgrave was which means he'll probably be referenced on The Sleeper Show each week just to get you five and a half PPR points. One very obvious trend to talk about this week is with the Ravens backfield. Keaton Mitchell ended up leading that backfield with a forty six percent snapshare in Week twelve. He played thirty two offensive snaps. Justice Hill was at twenty gus Edwards eighteen. That resulted in Mitchell having a forty one percent running back rush share, which was as highest of the season, and he also ran a route on thirty eight percent of Baltimore's dropbacks, also a season high. Things are for sure trending up for Keaton Mitchell. I'm still very bullish on Josh Downs. He only scored nine point three PPR points this past week, and you might look at his last three games and not be very motivated to trade for him or start him in your fantasy lineup, but he didn't play his normal snap rate in two of those contests. In this past week, he had a thirty two and a half percent target share. I think Downs is still hugely underrated and redraft. Probably in Dynasty two. The Colts rest of the season. Schedules pretty average at this point for wide receivers, but he should be able to produce. Now, speaking of the Colts, you guys know that I like talking about how teams score their touchdowns because how teams score touchdowns generally regresses. I've talked about this with Denver and Baltimore this season. Those are two teams who have been scoring touchdowns a little bit differently than they should. Denver has too many passing touchdowns, Baltimore has too many rushing touchdowns, and those numbers have started to regress over the last handful of weeks. One team that I haven't talked about, though, is Indianapolis. They currently have scored forty one percent of their touchdowns through the air. Based on their pass rate, we'd expect that number to be closer to sixty three percent now. Obviously personnel plays a role here, but I would still expect at LEAs still a little bit more from that passing attack. In Fantasy football moving forward, Terry mclaurin's not having that great of a season. He's averaging twelve point three PPR points per game. He's a low end wide receiver three considering where a lot of people drafted him. He's not totally living up to expectation. But get this. In mclaurin's two games against Philadelphia this year, he's averaged twenty PPR points per game. In games not against the Eagles, that falls to ten point eight. He hasn't ranked higher than wide receiver twenty and weekly scoring against a non Eagles team this season. Washington Whindouts have a bottom ten playoff schedule by justin Fantasy points allowed. It's really tough to buy into Terry McLaurin right now, here's another wide receiver split for you. Justin Fields missed four games this year, he's played eight. In those four games missed, DJ Moore averaged nine point eight PPR points per game, his target share per game twenty three point nine percent. With Justin Fields, things have been completely different. His target share per game is thirty point four percent. His PPR points per game output. It goes from nine point eight without Fields to twenty point seven with him. To give you some context, twenty point seven PPR points per game at wide receiver is better than AJ Brown's season long average. Now I know what you're thinking, but JJ he had that performance earlier this year against Washington, where he scored forty nine PPR points. Take that away, He's not nearly as good, and that's not wrong. I'm just not one to just take a performance away, though, especially when you're not doing that for other wide receivers. But even with that removed, Moore's averaging sixteen point six PPR points per game with justin Fields. That's still a low end wide receiver one season. Moore has been really strong this year and all the peripherals are there. Like I said, his target share per game with Justin Fields, it's an awesome thirty percent. And according to Fantasy Life's utilization Report, which you can check out yourself over on fantasylife dot com, Djmore is third in the NFL this year in air yard share. It's been a roller coaster, but More really has lived up to expectation this year. The New York Jets offense isn't just bad, it's historically bad. The Jets have scored ten offensive touchdowns this year in eleven games. That's point nine touchdowns per game. No team has scored fewer than one touchdown per game since the two thousand and six Oakland Raiders. You can use bresee Hall you can use Garrett Wilson, but you and I know that their ceilings are capped each week and it sucks. Rashi Rice had a big game in Week twelve. He led the Chiefs wide receivers and routes run and his thirty one point three percent target chair was by far a season high. His previous high was nineteen percent. He ended up scoring twenty four point seven PPR points, another high on the season. Here's the problem, though, and it's been a problem all season long. Kansas City obnoxiously rotates their wide receivers, and they also did that in Week twelve. He may have led the Chiefs wide receivers and routes run, but he ran a round on sixty six percent of Patrick Mahomes dropbacks. Now, that was a season high for Rice. That's good, but it wasn't a season high by that much, and it wasn't a very big number either. The hope with Rice is that this performance forces him on the field more. As I've been saying for weeks now, he's easily been in Kansas City's best wide receiver this year when looking at any advanced metric, it hasn't even been close. So hopefully we get more Rashi rice moving forward. Now, speaking of the Chiefs, Jeric McKinnon didn't play in Week twelve, and Isaiah Pachecko had a bigger receiving role. As a result, his route participation was almost seventy five percent. His previous season high was fifty three percent, so there was a big spike in the number of routes that Isaiah Pachecko was running. But he also hit a season high fifteen point six percent target share, and he saw his typical workload on the ground, handling eighty three percent of the team's running back rushes. Pachecko is a very, very legit RB one, at least from a ceiling perspective without Jeric McKinnon in that lineup. The last trend this week is about Evan Ingram. He still hasn't found the end zone this year despite having five hundred and twenty four receiving yards. Across the league, tight ends are scoring a touchdown on every one hundred and fifty seven receiving yards, so Ingram's obviously playing below expectation. Now, keep in mind where players see targets is really important in understanding how many touchdowns they should have. Yards to touchdowns is just a very quick way of looking at it. According to Pro Football focuses expected touchdowns formula, Ingram should have one point seven touchdowns this year, not zero, but based on his yardage total, that one point seven number is lower than most would probably expect, and that's based on where he's seeing his looks. So yes, he's definitely a candidate for touchdown regression, there's no doubt, but it's not by some insane amount. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks Tolvy for listening. If yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Make sure you subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, which is YouTube dot com slash at LATEROUNDFF, and there's an Instagram as well at LATEROUNDFF. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the Sleeper Show.