1095: Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachera JJ zacher REFA. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode ten ninety five of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. The NFL Draft starts on Thursday, and I, like you, could not be more excited. Over the last few months, I've been deep diving into these prospect profiles. Some of you have read the Prospect Guide, some of you have listened to the episodes of this show that have focused on the draft, and I've done more podcast appearances than I probably should have done. I'm ready to find out where these players are going to start their careers. As a little primer, I like to go over the top of my rankings for single quarterback leagues heading into the draft where I'm at right now with things, because not only have those rankings changed just a little bit since the Prospect Guide launched, I'll be it not by much, but it'll give you a good idea of where I stand pre draft. You can compare that to post draft to show you how I'm sort of thinking about landing spot and how I let landing spot influence things. Next week's episode is going to focus on more immediate reactions to the draft, but the one in a couple of weeks will be the post draft rookie rankings. Of course, though you can get my rankings immediately when the draft is over via the Late Round Prospect Guide. That guide's available right now on lateround dot com and it features one hundred and seventy pages of model talk, player profiles, and more. An updated version will be emailed to your inbox just a couple hours after the draft ends on Saturday, so if you purchase now, you can get that pre draft version, save that down, and then also get the post draft version of that guide on Saturday. That's all found on lateround dot com. Now let's talk about where I have things ranked. Just before this draft starts, I'll be doing today's show by tier, and there's a player, Jeremiah Love who's simply just in a tier of his zone in this class, even in superflex leagues. This is one of those overthink it kind of players. Even if he gets a rough landing spot versus one of the wide receivers getting a good one, Love is looking like he's gonna get top ten draft capital, potentially top five, but even if it's just top half of the first round, he's in good company. Since twenty eleven, which is when the ZAP model dates back to, we've had ten top half of the first round running back selections Trent Richardson, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Sakuon Barkley, Bejhon Robinson, Jamier Gibbs, and Ashton Genty. The only player who didn't hit seventeen or more PPR points per game in one of his first three seasons on that list has been Genty. He's only played one year in the league. Though. When teams spend up at running back, two things are being told to us. Number one, the player is likely extremely talented. Number Two, the player is likely going to be fed. Teams don't want that pick to look bad, and coaching staffs they can completely dictate the workload that they give to these running backs. But it's not like Love is talentless. His receiving profile within the context of the ZAP model, it's above average to really good his best season in pro rated reception share, it's solid enough in the sixty fifth percentile. His adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt, it's in the eighty third percentile that's adjusted for strength of opponent in age, and it looks at his best season within that statistic and in his adjusted yards per team play total yards ninety fourth percentile. Meanwhile, according to PFF, you're looking at an eighty eight percent tile avoided tackles per attempt and ninety six percent tile yards after contact per attempt rate. He can truly do it all. With his draft capital boosting him, He'll almost definitely be looked at as a legendary performer. In the Zapp model, He's your one oh one. Things get really interesting after Jeremiah Love in Superflex. You could argue Fernando Mendoza at the one oh two spot, and I'd have him in that tier pre draft. We're talking single quarterback rankings though today, but I at least want to shout that out out right now pre draft, I have this next tier as Jordan Tyson, Carnell Tate, and Mackay Lemon for all very different reasons. Tyson is my wide receiver one, and he'll likely be my wide receiver one post draft. The model objectively likes Tyson more than the other two guys pre draft. That's unlikely to change post draft, and it's because his breakout score, which is agent schedule adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt, it's a ninety ninth percentile number. He produced right away when he got to Colorado as a freshman, and he had a spectacular third season coming off that knee injury. Unsurprisingly, his best season in adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt is a ninety fourth percentile number. But some of the advanced numbers that don't directly go into the ZAP model, they look good for Tyson two His career yards per out run according to PFF eighty nine percentile first downs per out run ninety third. His top season in target share is a ninety fifth percentile number. There are a few places, though, where Tyson may not look as good. I do think he's a great prospect analytically, but he was bad at forcing misstackles in college. In his yards after the catch profile was more bottom half than top half. Those numbers do tend to translate. Aside from all the injuries stuff, there's also the fact that he's not an early Declare wide receiver. Early Declare wide receivers, they get signal in the ZAP model because better players leave college early for the NFL. Of course, this has changed a little bit with nil and transfer rules, but we still see the best players leaving early at wide receiver because they know that they can make more money in the NFL than in college. Historically, non early declare first round wide receivers, they've been a whole lot worse than early declare first round wide receivers. With that being said, the only non early declare first round wideouts who have had a similar breakout score as Tyson since twenty eleven have really just been Corey Davis and Chris Olave. In other words, when a player isn't declaring early, he typically doesn't have amazing age adjusted production. It doesn't make that much sense to bucket Jordan Tyson in a group with like Xavier Legett and Ricky Piersoll. They didn't have the same age adjusted production. Not only did Tyson have elite early production, but he in general is just younger. He played four years of college ball, but he's still not twenty two years old. So while he does get dinged a little bit in the model for the lack of early declared status. It's not everything. I do think the fear here is that he is a Corey Davis like profile. But if he does get top ten draft capital, let's not pretend the top ten wide receivers have busted at a super high rate in recent memory. Tyson to me, he's not flawless, but he's really really good. Now. I had Cardinal Taitus my wide receiver two in the pre draft guide, but I think I've switched that to more Mackay Lemon. We'll see what draft capital ends up looking like. I don't think this is a clearcut thing and landing spot. It's gonna matter for a player like Lemon in my opinion, because Lemon, he's then Amen Ross Saint Brown arc type. People will say that he's just a slot but I don't agree with that assessment. He actually led this draft class and career yards per out run on the perimeter like Saint Brown. Though, I expect Lemon to be an inside out player who can just be a complete target hog in the NFL. But as we know, Saint Brown found a landing spot that was perfect for that, perfect for that with a quarterback who's perfect for that. We'll see if Lemon can also find that, but it's not a guarantee. Regardless, it's a fantastic profile. I remember writing it up in the Prospect Guide and I just kept thinking, Man, this just keeps getting better and better. He had an eighty nine percentile breakout score and eighty seven percentile best season adjusted Fantasy points per game number, which is another production metric in the model. He had a ninety six percentile career yards per rout run rate, ninety six percentile first downs per out run rate. I mean, it's a really really strong profile analytically. And then there's Carnel tait I wrote in the Prospect Guide that Tate was a relatively safe bet, and I do believe that to be true. Ohio state wide receiver who's an early declare and he should get strong draft capital. There's nothing wrong with that. I do think Tyson and Lemon just have a little bit more fantasy football upside when you don't account for landing spot. Not to say that Tate can't get there, it's just we haven't seen him be a target hag yet. He max out at just a twenty two percent target share in a single season in college, a bottom half number in the class. Now, you could argue that was due to competition, but other players have elite competition two even from that same Ohio state team, and they're able to get above that number. It's part of the reason that the model just views him as a lesser prospect than the other Ohio state wide receivers who have come out over the last five years or so. But Tate can win at all three levels, and he's got one of the best contested catch rates that you're gonna find. That's not always a good thing, but when you know that there is separation to a player's profile, it's certainly not a bad thing. His eighty seven percentile breakout score that's strong too. So these three wide receivers, I think they're actually all pretty strong. I've seen a lot of talk that those three wide receivers just lack that true wide receiver one ceiling. And maybe that's true from a real football perspective, maybe with like a Lemon or a Tait, maybe Tyson two. But I'm projecting fantasy success and in the right spot, I think each of these players has a chance to be a key piece to your dynasty roster one tier down and all alone. In this tier, I've got Casey Conceptsion. If you guaranteed top half of the first round capital for Conceptsion, I may bump them up a tier, but I don't think that's gonna end up happening. The difference between Conceptsion's production profile versus the other three wideouts in this class is that he never had a truly spiked season. In fact, his best season in adjusted yards per team pass attempt was just in the fifty fifth percentile. Unadjusted, it looks even worse. His career yards per out run is a forty ninth percentile mark. Now we can look at all those single metrics and say to ourselves, wow, first round wide receivers who have average yards per out run profiles, they don't work out at a very high rate. But to me, this is exactly why modeling can help. Instead of just looking at one factor, you're looking at many factors. And because Conceptsion got to NC State and he produced immediately, he has a breakout score in the seventy eighth percentile. It's pretty good. When you're looking at the back half of the first round, we see plenty of players who have had that type of breakout score. Some have hit, some haven't hit, but that's what you get with wide receivers in that range in general. The fact is Conceptsione had other things working in his favor. He's in early declare, so his raw numbers naturally you're at a disadvantage. Had he come back for another year, wouldn't we expect that yards per out run rate to improve. This isn't like Matthew Golden last year, where yes he was an early declare, but his production profile was substantially worse. His breakout score was in the forty first percentile. His career yards per out run was even worse than conceptsiones. But yes, overall, an early declare wide receiver is added disadvantage when it comes to cumulatives to ten compared to non early declares. We can't forget that when we're evaluating Conceptsione. You can't compare his numbers to like Bryce Lance. Lance had one reception through three seasons at a smaller program. Conceptsione is leaving college for the NFL after three seasons. On top of that, there's versatility littered throughout Conceptsion's profile. He started off as a slot at NC State, He moved to more of an outside role with Texas A and M. He had his best season in twenty twenty five with A and M. Like Mackay Lemon, Conceptsion's out wide yards per rout run rate across his career, it's actually better than what he did in the slot. And then there's rushing production to his profile too. He had four hundred and thirty one rushing yards in college and hitting some baseline for rushing production. It doesn't have to be four hundred and thirty one yards, but some baseline gets signal in the ZAP model. It's really a great profile. It's just not as great as the other three wide receivers in this class in my opinion. But I'm a con Sceptson fan. I hope he finds the right spot in this draft. There's another drop after Casey Conceptsion, but I do think Omar Cooper should be the next player on this list. There's at least some chance that Omar Cooper has a pretty similar ZAP score as Casey Conceptsion post draft, largely driven by the difference in draft capital. While you're watching Round one. If the gap between those two players is large from a draft capital perspective, you can assume the two will look close in the ZAP model. If it's not, then the model is going to definitely favor Casey conceptsion. But Cooper's been rising up draft boards ever since the Prospect Guide was published. I get it from the standpoint that he's a player that I can see teams really liking. I don't exactly get it from an age adjusted production perspective kind of. I actually don't think Cooper is a bad player at all, despite very little production across his first two seasons of college, Cooper has a fifty fifth percentile breakout score, and outside the model, his career yards per out run ranks in the seven ninth percentile. He's also unbelievably good in yards after the catch. His avoided tackles per reception mark of point three to one across his career. That's a ninety seven percentile average compared to other players in the ZAP model. That breakout score, though, is usually better for let's say an early second round pick than like a mid to late first round pick. His breakout score is forty one point seven, which, like I said, fifty fifth percentile. Since twenty eleven, Here are the first round wideouts with breakout scores between thirty and fifty. He's basically right in the middle of that. Brashad Perriman, Kevin White, Philip dorstt Josh Dockson, Henry Ruggs, Kadarius Tony, Zay Flowers, Xavier Lagette, Ricky Piersall, Matthew Golden, and Travis Hunter. Now I'm trying to be better at not having these arbitrary thresholds when doing analysis for these players, because Omar Cooper in the early second round shouldn't have a much different outcome than Omar Cooper in round one. I mean, maybe expectations are different, maybe changes the way that he plays or something like that, but if he went thirty fourth, overall, he'd be among more hits with that breakout score. Because Round two wide receivers tend to have worse breakout scores, but some of them have hit Day two guys Michael Thomas, Deebo, Samuel Michael Pittman, Ladd McConkie. Now, some of them, like Ladd mcconkee, had better yards pro out run numbers, but overall there's still more misses than hits. But he can still hit. He can still be Okay, I don't think it's all doom and gloom overall. I just think Concepcion's age of justin production is a lot safer than Omar Cooper's, as well as his age in general. He's an early declare wide receiver while Omar Cooper is not. But I don't think Cooper is like a horrible prospect. Now, look, a lot of this could be said also for Denzel Boston. So let's just talk about Boston here too. Now, I'm not one who thinks that Boston is like the next Mike Evans. I've seen some analysts with Boston as their wide receiver one in this class, and look, maybe that happens. We have to have an open mind sitting here saying that I'm definitely right about these players, because I know I'm going to be wrong about a lot of this stuff. That's how it works with the NFL Draft. We're playing probability here. Boston though, to me, he looks more of like a Jaden Higgins like prospect, very solid but probably not gonna give us like an alpha ceiling. And maybe the higher end comp is more like Cortland Sutton. Boston had a better breakout score than Omar Cooper in the sixty first percentile, but it's barely better. He basically qualifies for all the stuff that I just talked about a second ago with breakout score. His career yards per out run, though, is a little bit troubling. It's two point zh two. Forget draft capital for a second. Boston might go in round one, he might sneak into round two, though I do expect him to go in round one. But even when you take out draft capital completely as part of your consideration, since twenty twenty, we've had just two wide receivers with career yards pro out run rates below two point two reach fourteen or more PPR points per game in a season across their first three years. Aman Ross Saint Brown and Nico Collins. Neither obviously were first round picks, and both of them they were early declare wide receivers. So going back to the discussion earlier, they're at a disadvantage for career numbers like this because they didn't benefit for playing that extra year or two in college. Both players they also had better breakout scores, which isn't a surprise given the early declare status. Now you can explain some of this away from Boston because he played with good competition at Washington across the first couple of years of his career, but there's still not a ton of green with his analytical profile. Overall, He's got a good first downs per route run rate, something that we don't always see with bigger bodied wideouts, and his contested catch profile is great, but it also scares me a little bit about separation, at least with a player like this. So realistically, this is a profile that in recent memory has been more average to below average versus expectation. There's a chance that Boston moves down a tier post draft as a result. Now, technically, I do think having Kenyan Sadik ahead of Boston right now makes sense. I just had a good opportunity for a transition. Talking about Omar Cooper to Denzel Boston Sadiq is a really difficult evaluation. I'll be honest. On one hand, the new tight end zat model really does like him, and sure some of that is draft capital related, but it also thinks that some of the production stuff is overstated. I'm sure you've read some discussion or seen people on Twitter and such talk about Kenyan Sadik not having the best production profile in the world. I'm not quite there, to be honest with you. His breakout score is still in the eighty six percentile within the ZAP model. That's because while his numbers weren't insane, he's still really young. He just turned twenty one years old. His yards PERAU run profile is not elite. He has a one point seven to two career yards PERU run rate according to PFF. That's a seventy fourth percentile number, but that's also on fewer seasons. It's really not fair to compare his yards PERAH run profile across his career to someone like Trey McBride or Sam Laporta. They played more collegiate seasons. I mean, Trey McBride had a worse yards perou run rate after three seasons in college compared to Kenyon Sidik. He just boosted it with that final year. Sam Laporta's was almost identical. A big problem with Sadik is that he doesn't have the cleanest comps in the world. But I've said this before, Finding clean tight end comps is really difficult. They're only like six elite tight ends over the last fifteen years in fantasy football, and some of them weren't even looked at as amazing prospects. So copwise, yes, you're getting the Noah Fense, the Oj Howards of the world, and that's a little bit scary for people. But it's not like prospects are going to consistently be comped to players like Kyle Pitts and Brock Bauers. There are fewer really good tight ends to choose from, and tight ends just don't make the same kind of impact in fantasy football as running backs and wide receivers do. We'll see what happens with Sadik's draft capital, but for now, given the production, given the insane athleticism as a mid first round pick, I'll put them right here in the rankings for the final tier. Today, I'm going to talk about four players. I think Fernando Mendoza kind of belongs here in single quarterback leagues pre draft. More running backs can and should enter the picture post draft, when we know who actually gets good draft capital and what kind of landing spots they have. But Mendoza is at least a capable starter who's gonna find himself with a good offensive mining coach and decent enough weapons in Vegas. But I don't think we're gonna see a crazy rushing ceiling from him to warrant a higher pick than this in single quarterback leagues. I also have Emmett Johnson here, the RB two in this class. In my opinion, the inputs of the ZAP model looks at the three production inputs. They love Johnson ninety fourth percentile pro rated best season reception share, ninety fifth percentile adjusted yards per team play, eighty ninth percentile adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt. Maybe the lack of athleticism, maybe that ends up mattering, and maybe it turns teams off. It did impact his explosive run rate in college, which was in the nineteenth percentile. But I've said it a million times now, I think an Aaron Jones like career is in Emmett Johnson's range of outcomes. I'll throw Jedarium Price in here right now, too, strictly because a draft capital or projected draft capital. His production profile is obviously lacking after playing with Jeremiah Love in college. That's a huge red flag. There's so much volatility to Jendarium Price's profile. But you could also argue that day two draft capital with that crappy of a profile that also means that he's already starting off as an outlier. My biggest concern with Price, though, is that he's not enough of a pass catcher that's number one, and then he ends up being more of a change of pace player as opposed to a high volume one that would obviously matter big time in fantasy football. And then finally, I'll shout out Eli Stowers here too. Stowers is a better production profile than Kenyon Sadik, but draft capital more than likely isn't going to follow him the same way it's going to follow Kenyan Sadik. Maybe I'll be surprised, though. Stowers is just a pure pass catching tight end, and that's very exciting. His career yards per out run rate ninety fourth percentile, his first downs per out run ninety seventh percentile, his breakout score is in the ninetieth percentile. And while Sadik stole the show at the Combine Stours, he would have stolen the show on any other combine. He's a freak athlete as well. His heightjested speed scorer ranks in the ninety second percentile on the model. He's older than Sadik, though, and there are huge question marks about his blocking that could obviously limit snaps at the next level, but overall, very very fun prospect. So that's my top twelve. That's the first round of single quarterback rookie drafts for me right now. Like I said, I think when we learn landing spots in draft capital for some of these running backs, maybe a Jodah Coleman type can find his way in here too. But that's where I stand heading into Thursday. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast makes you are best starting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found and follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. There's a Late Round show happening on Wednesday at noon Eastern on YouTube, and that's gonna hit the podcast feed a little bit early this week because of the NFL Draft, so look for that on Wednesday instead of Thursday this week. And that's also because this week's Perspectives episode that's gonna drop on Thursday. I'm also doing some live stream Bestball drafts this week over on the YouTube channel, so make sure you subscribe there. YouTube dot com, slash at Late round FF, Talk to you guys soon.