382: Mailbag 6/12/20

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha J J. Zacher reson What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharesen, the editor in chief at fandueln at number five dot com, in this episode three hundred and eighty two of the Late Round podcast on the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. We have NFL news. Adam Schefter reported earlier this week that Dalvincook won't participate in any team activities until he receives a new contract. I don't think it's shocking news, but it's news and that's fun. So fantasy managers are out here wondering what this means, whether they should be buying or selling Dalvincook, and where they should draft Alexander Madison at Fun with pronouns. Ask me this week on Twitter. I know you can't predict the future and each time is unique, but is there a general lean toward expected value in news like this drops i e. Is there better value on Dalvin discount or Madison increase? Obviously each outcome will be different, but does pure math prefer a side and then he continues? Or because each story affects adp differently. Maybe the better question is how much does a player need to rise or fall across a threshold of value? Okay, so I'm gonna say this, There absolutely is not going to be a formula for something like a running back holdout. There are too many factors to make a blanket statement. What I can tell you is what I've been talking about on this show over the last couple of weeks, and it's that your opportunity cost significantly decreases when you get into the middle rounds of your draft. When round six hits, your chances of hitting on a league winner becomes increasingly smaller, especially a wide receiver. What you need to do is play out range of outcomes. For Alexander Madison, what would his statline look like if Dalvin Cook missed the entire season. Let's say you have Madison as the RB fifteen. If that's the case, because you might not be as confident with how they divvy up that backfield as you would with Dalvin Cook being back there, so he's RB fifteen. You can't draft him there though, because you know there's a decent chance that Dalvin Cook plays this year. Then you just slowly move Madison down your rankings based on your confidence of Dalvin Cook playing. You're forced to look at the opportunity cost in drafting Madison at each spot. Eventually you'll get to a place where you're comfortable drafting Madison given the wide range of outcomes. The key is what your confidence is that Dalvin Cook is going to play this year. Playing means one of two things happens. He just plays on his current deal and he doesn't get a new contract, or he agrees to a new contract. And from what I've researched with the new CBA and what I learned from Brad from Overthecap dot com, who's on Twitter at Brad OTC, is that players have to report to camp now instead of reporting thirty days prior to their first game. They have to do that in order to not be fined and in order to accrue their season. The fines can't be waived by the team unless the player is on his rookie deal, which is the case for Dalvin Cook. But the bigger deal is that he can't just sit out of camp like we've seen with other running backs in the past. Cook needs to accrue this season in order to become an unrestricted free agent. Which means he has to report to camp. He could hypothetically report to camp and go through a large portion of camp and then hold out. But I do think the logical choice for Cook is to either take a little bit less than he wants in order to get that deal done or just report on time. Otherwise it could really bite him in the butt. But I need to stress the fact that number one, this isn't my life. Dalvin Cook needs to do what's best for Dalvin Cook. But number two, I felt it was rational and logical for Le'Veon Bell to play and for Melvin Gordon to play. What's rational isn't always what happens, so you can't just project what you see as logical onto these players. I guess given the way that things are structured though with the CBA, I'd most definitely lean towards Cook playing this season, but I have an open mind about it. I think, if anything, this is a wake up call for all the other running backs who hypothetically could hold out, like Joe Mixon, don't waste time and try to get their backups right now now. Before get into the questions this week, I wanted to remind all of the Late Round podcast listeners in Colorado that Fandel's Sportsbook is now available in Colorado. But what's a sports book with no sports Well, it's Fandel Anything Book, Fandel's newest free game. Each day you'll pick one free prop like the weather stocks anything. Pick it right to win five bucks in site credit, then play again tomorrow play fandle Anything Book for free only on Fandel's Sportsbook. Must be twenty one years or older. Max bonus of fifty dollars. Visit fandel dot com slash audio for terms gambling problem Call one eight hundred and five to two to two forty seven hundred. The first question this week is from AT's Ikeasar. Where do you see the largest gap between your projections and rankings? So, just to be clear for anyone who's confused about this question, my rankings are not the same as my projections. Rankings are there to show how you generally draft. Projections give you the average outcome for a particular player. You're not always drafting for the average outcome, especially after the early rounds. Now. Because of that, most of my projections in rankings differences exist after the first couple of rounds of drafts. But I think a good example of a player that I'm higher on in rankings than projections is Clyde Edwards Hilaire, mostly because my projections are going to be a little bit more conservative with giving Damian Williams some sort of role, but I also recognize that there's crazy, crazy upside if Cech ends up being the lead back right away for Kansas City. Jamison Crowder is another one, but on the opposite end, I'm actually lower on Crowder than where my projections have him, And you could probably lump Julian Edelman in this as well, just because they're locked into high target shares and that makes them look good in a projection. But I'm cognizant to the fact that their situations aren't necessarily the best and they may only work for certain team builds. So those are a few examples for you. This last questions from at John Underscore p Underscore Fane really appreciate your podcasts and all your work. Thanks. In a recent pod, you reference data from recent years that suggests the smart strategy still might be targeting elite wide receivers in early rounds. I think part of the reason why players are fading wide receivers because the position has so much depth, and there seems to be a lack of the super elite wide receiver, something you referenced on your podcast. So my question is, how should we view the data from years past when the position wasn't that deep. We're coming off the heels of an incredibly productive twenty nineteen wide receiver rookie class and what appears to be a very strong twenty twenty wide receiver class, with another strong class coming in twenty one. How do we reconcile between what we've seen happen in the past and what we think might be a new trend in the now slash future. So I think the way this question is being asked is exactly why I'm still okay with getting wide receivers early. I mean, first off, let me just say, and a lot of drafts, I'm still cool with a running back running back start. I'm still cool with going running back heavy. I always have been. My saying that we shouldn't ignore early round wide receivers. Isn't me saying to go wide receiver heavy. I just need to be clear with that. I'm mostly saying that avoiding the wide receiver position early because of what you see as depth the position can end up getting you in trouble because this isn't the first year we're saying that wide receiver is deep. We've said this for the past like three or four seasons, and even though last year was a rough one for wide receivers, it was rougher than normal. Basically, what I think is being missed right now by the community is that perception isn't always reality. Yes, the position appears to be deep, but we've said that in the past and that hasn't proven to be true. If it was true, then we'd see more league winners get drafted in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds. They're coming from early rounds at a higher rate than running backs are. And that's my main point. Even though the elite wide receiver might be dying within the context of the position, the biggest difference makers are still being drafted early. So to ignore that, especially in favor of onesie positions that can get you into trouble. I'm not in favor of like a start with four straight running backs, a running back, running back, running back, running back start. I'm definitely in favor of a start with two running backs and then getting some wide receivers right after. The larger point here, though, is that what we perceive doesn't always come to fruition. Positional value in fantasy football does not fluctuate nearly as much as people think year over year. That's what this is all about. This last question says, Hey, JJ, was just reading your article about identifying breakout running backs. There are definitely a few candidates that came to mind, but among them, I kept thinking of Zach Moss. I like to consult a few different rankings as I compile my draft board for the summer, and a lot of very smart analysts are kind of into Devin Singletary this season, and I recognize that he was an efficient player that should be due some touchdown regression. But the Bills spent the same amount of draft capital on Zach Moss this season, let alone the fact that Pro Football Focus viewed him as the best running back in this class coming out. They also have him profiling as a great tackle breaker and a decent receiver. Considering Singletary doesn't profile as an elite pass catcher or goal line back, should we not be more concerned that the Bills are going to be giving a lot of the more valuable touches receptions and goal line carries to Moss Matt in Atlanta. Yeah, so my rankings are over on Number Fire for premium members. And what I noticed this week is that I'm a little bit lower on Singletary than the consensus, and I'm a little bit higher on Moss. I'm not really high on either player necessarily, just the gap between the two should be smaller. In my eyes, Singletary is riskier than his ADP suggests. That's just my opinion. At first, when Moss was drafted, I thought to myself, Yeah, Moss is good, but Singletary should still get the receiving work and a lot of work between the twenties. And I still agree with that assessment. The difference is that I think people are overstating what that means when I kind of assumed that people wouldn't be that into Devin Singletary because of Zach Moss. But Singletary last year had a pro rated target share of eleven and a half percent. You can't assume that number remains the same or goes up, given they added Stefan Diggs this offseason and Zach Moss as a receiver has more potential than Frank Gore did on youth and uncertainty alone, and Singletary wasn't super efficient per route run or per target last year either. Singletary also saw just two goal line rushes, and Moss is a bigger bodied back. That doesn't bode that well for Devin Singletary. So at this point I'm cool with targeting Moss instead of Singletary. I don't think he fits the criteria very well though, because it doesn't seem very likely that he's going to have a high target share. But I think when compared to adp Idlean Moss, considering Singletary as being drafted higher than I expected this as questions from at john Boy Beats, you talked about it a little bit. If I missed a longer article or explanation, feel free to point me in the right direction. But is this year trending to be the year of the late round tight end? Seems like a lot of talent compared to previous years. Yeah, so I think this is sort of similar to what I noted with wide receiver. It may seem that way, but chances are we'll have a similar enough season at tight end as we usually do. There are good late round tight ends every year that's part of the reason why it's a viable strategy. The correlation between average draft position and points scored among top twelve tight ends over the last decade is non existent. There's correlation among top six tight ends by ADP, which tells you that the top ones do really well and the middle round ones suck, but the bottom tight end ones are actually outperforming middle round ones really consistently. In fantasy football. It's similar to quarterback. But I'm all for a late round tight end approach this season, as I am every year. I really like getting players like Mikeasicki and Hayden Hurst. This best question is from at Bobby g eighty four underscore. What's your take on Robert Woods versus Cooper Cup this year? At the end of twenty nineteen, with La using more twelve personnel, Woods really came on and Cup saw less volume. But the beginning of the year was the opposite, with Cup seeing high usage. Does Cook's departure in Higbee's emergence change things so? According to bestballten dot COM's ADP over the last couple of weeks, Cooper Cup's ADP has been thirty second overall and Robert Woods is sitting at forty fifth. I think that gap is way too big. I actually have Woods seeing a higher target share this season than Cup, and then we know that he adds a little bit of juice with his legs too, or that's what we've seen historically. It's hard to just ignore what the Rams did last year at the end of the season, and that's our most recent sample. It definitely hurt Cooper Cup. The Rams started using a lot more twelve personnel basically out of their bye week, and Cup had a target share of just fifteen percent during the second half of last season, when it was twenty eight percent during the first half. As a slot receiver, it makes logical sense that switching to more two tight end sets would impact that player bottom line, and according to Pro Football Focus, during the first half of the season, Cooper Cup played seventy four percent of his snaps from the slot. During the second half of the season, that number drop by over fourteen percent. And by the way, the Rams were pretty good offensively over their final five games last year. They faced three really tough defenses in Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Baltimore out of their by but during their five final games, their yards per drive and their points per game was higher than the first half of the season, and again those final five games were with heavier twelve personnel, So I think we're gonna see more twelve personnel this year than what we saw during the first half last year. It makes logical sense given their personnel and how it could also impact the run game, and that has a chance to hurt Cooper Cup. So I actually think that Woods and Cup should be basically back to back picks in fantasy football. And I'm actually favoring Robert Woods right now. It just means that I like Woods as a value and I think Cup is just slightly overvalued. This last question is from at Nate Vesterman for redraft, what's the best and worst starting draft position? Historically you're at an advantage in the front. Rodoviz dot com published a win rates chart from over the last five years, and even though it's for best ball, it's still very telling. Across the first four picks of drafts, win rates were at least nine percent, so well above average. Pick two and pick three were especially good at twelve percent and ten and a half percent, and the back half of drafts were way way worse. I also think This applies to the twenty twenty season given the good running backs that are being drafted early, So I'd want a front half pick this year and every year. This last question is from at wolf alex H. Why don't we pay more attention to the players that are most common on championship teams? As a data point? I only ever hear it in passing, but for example, why wouldn't that top X most owned or owned on above y percent of teams be the definition of a league winner. I think looking at that data is great, and some people do a really, really good job of analyzing that data, but I think it's better to analyze from a roster construction standpoint than an individual player standpoint for two main reasons. If you're looking at championship teams in season long leagues, ones that you manage, then there's definitely no point to really looking at individual player data because that's going to skew dramatically in favor of players who did well in Week sixteen, which is championship week. But if you're looking at it from a best ball standpoint, or for leagues that don't have playoffs and you're just looking at total points, there's still a lot of noise to that data. Take Christian McCaffrey in twenty nineteen as an example. He had a really really high win rate last year because he was unbelievable. He was a unicorn. He was drafted at the beginning of the first round. That means any of the players who were drafted at the end of the second round or the start of the third round, no matter how well they did, they likely have overinflated win rates because they just so happened to get drafted on teams that had Christian McCaffrey a lot. Like I said, I think win rate data is more interesting when looking at team construction, like on the League winner episode that I did a couple of weeks ago when I cited Jack Miller's data on win percentage and where those winners drafted their wide receivers. But there's a lot of noise to looking at win rates for individual players. It's not unusable data, it's just not reliable as the only data point when analyzing league winners. That's going to do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at late round QB. Thanks everyone, enjoy your weekend, and I'll talk to you next week