1005: Players to Target

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zachersa j J Zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode one thousand and five of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. Football season is right around the corner, and there's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with Best Ball on DraftKings, where you draft once and ride your roster all season long. And right now Draftings giving all customers I can't miss offer Draft one, Get one, enter a lineup in the fifteen million dollars Best Ball contest for just twenty dollars, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play free for share fifteen million dollars, giving you a second shot to win big. It's easy. Just draft your dream team once, no weekly management required, and let your top scorers automatically start each week across the whole season. Every breakout star, every clutch play, every touchdown will count towards your quest for share of fifteen million dollars. As you know, I'm drafting over there and I'm documenting things with becoming a Best Ball pro, so you can use the information from that show to help you out as well. So download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app now to draft your twenty dollars best ball lineup to play for a share of fifteen million dollars, and get a second ticket to play free for a share of that fifteen million. That's two chances to win big without ever setting your lineup again. Draft one, get one only on DraftKings. The Crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler in New York call eight seven to seven eight hope en y protects Hope NY to four to six, seven three six nine and Connecticut. Help is available from Problem Gambling Call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org eighteen plus most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Voidware prohibited. One per customer enter the Best Ball fifteen million dollars Headliner contest by nine four to twenty five to get one bonus entry twenty dollars entrpere required. Reard expires in thirty days. See terms at DraftKings dot com. Slash NFL Dash Best slash Ball sponsored by DK over the last few years, these Players to Target and Players to Avoid episodes. The episodes you're about to hear over the next two weeks. They've been with guests. It hasn't just been me, and they've been with the same guests each year, and we're running it back this year. Today's episodes on players to Target and your fantasy drafts this year. And I'm joined by my good friend and analysts over at Sharp Football Analysis, Rich Rebar. You guys know Rich for his amazing data driven takes and he's been my sounding board for years now. He's the person I go to when I have a take or an idea and I want to see if it makes sense. Rich and I came prepared for this show with five players that were generally targeting in fantasy drafts this year. They're not the only players that were targeting, and he and I have plenty of overlap, but you'll walk away with ten players that you can feel pretty confident in this year. So, without further ado, here's our discussion on players to target. All right, Rich, we do this every year. Last year we did Players to Avoid. This year, you are on the episode of Players to Target. It very simple. We each have five guys we're going to go back and forth talking about the player that we're targeting. I think in general we have total overlap in terms of like us agreeing with these players. But it'll be interesting if you don't agree with some of mine, because I think that's all obviously makes for better content. But we'll kick it to you first. You start with your first player to target, a guy that folks should be looking at in their drafts this year.

00:03:25
Speaker 2: All right, I think I'm gonna go kind of in an ADP order, and I'm the first guy I'm gonna start with. I didn't want to pick anyone like in round one, although I think this should be around one player, and I think you have another guy that like is on the cusp of like should be a round one player. Sometimes always isn't a Round one player. So I'm gonna start off with Drake London. And you look at Drake London. Last year, obviously, he has kind of his his career best season to this point, started to become a feature wide receiver. One. He was wide receiver six and yards per team pass attempt. What happened was Zach Robinson was able to kind of unlock him a little bit. We see him go from fifteen percent slot rate as a rookie, eighteen percent slot rate in the second year up to thirty nine point four percent last year. And when he was in the slot he was six then target rate in the slot thirty four percent of his routes he was eighth, and yards per route run and that opportunities gave him access to targets that created like a higher floor, a higher success rate. Right, only eight point nine percent of his targets ended up being in inaccurate throws last year, after eighteen point eight percent and thirteen point six percent to open his career. Quarterback played something to do with that too, but he got a lot more free squares as we like to talk about. He was targeted on forty percent of his routes against man coverage, a second in the NFL. He was sixth in target rate per route against zone coverage. We love those two things when they kind of meshed together. He also had just an immense opportunity to score more touchdowns. He led all wide receivers. He had sixty percent of the team's end zone targets last year, and that was with both quarterbacks almost similar rates. Michael Pennix through nine passes into the end zone in a small sample, six of them went to Drake London Kirk Cousins through twenty one to twelve of them w to Drake London. So like right, literally sixty six percent and sixty percent. London had twenty four red zone targets last year. Darna Mooney had six in the end zone. Drake London fourteen targets, one for Darnell Mooney. Also Darna Mooney, we don't know when he's going to play. In the one game Darna Moody didn't play, Drake London had eighteen total targets. But you know, kind of circling back when we look at what started work Kirk Cousins and that Zach Robinson pairing. We talked about him getting become like a high floor target, but getting to play with Michael Pennock showed the marriage of you know, the system plus like a quarterback that was willing to push the football downfield. He only had one hundred yard game with Kirk Cousins under center, and then went over one hundred yards and two of the three games at Michael Pennock's. Obviously we know he ended the season with that You know, big monster game to ten for one to eighty seven and two touchdowns. People will talk about those last two games being overtime games against bad defenses, but they didn't even get the ball, Like I didn't even get the ball in overtime in either of those games. True, So like it wasn't even like that inflated. But playing with Michael Pennix, we saw his target depth go from ten yards to twelve point seven yards. He had thirty eight percent of the team's targets with Michael Pennis on the field. Obviously, he's not going to have a thirty eight percent target share this season, even with Darno Moody potentially starting slow. But what happened was, like I said that that marriage with Michael Penix he's is that you get that slot work plus the vertical work and unlocked him being this full field wide receiver. Michael Penix has a little bit of that like Jamis Winston to him, like he wants to push the ball downfield. He's willing to make those like big time throws. He's actually top five and big time throw rate. Very small sample that we saw him, but he's he's got once to throw outside the numbers, Forty seven percent of his throws were ten or more yards downfield, eighteen percent were twenty or more yards downfield. Those are the league's highest rates. The final three weeks of this season, Kirk Cousins at a thirty five percent rate of throws ten or more yards downfield, nine point seven percent twenty yards down field for him. And then when I look at Atlanta, because they do want to inherently be a balanced team, but I just don't think they're going to be afforded those opportunities this year. I mean, you look at that, this is what Atlanta opens the season with. There they play Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, Miami, and New England. Those are like, that's are opening schedule, Like, these are teams that are going to press them to score points. And we've seen them play Carolina and Washington at the end of last year and two Penix the starts and they scored combined thirty points per game. It was like a combined sixty points per game in both of those games. Then in the Fantasy playoffs you get Buccaneers, Cardinals, Rams, teams also capable of pushing the scoreboard. You pair that with Atlanta's defense. I think that there really is like true percentage odds that Drake Clendon could outright just lead the NFL in targets this season if it, because I think they could be like NFC Cincinnati.

00:07:29
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I mean the other thing Darneld Mooney being banged up and ray Ray McLeod getting perimeter first team reps says enough about what their depth looks like in that wide receiver depth chart. The thing that's hardest, I think for London is the environment in fantasy football, right where in that area you're looking at Brian Thomas, you're looking at you know, if the league neighbors Falls or if Nico Conn like one of these guys is going to be going around that area. So I think to your point, London could just look like the most attractive option because he's gonna go a little bit later than those guys, you know, a few spots later. But I guess my question to you is like, are you tearing him in the same tier as them and are you just straight up like like you got to make a decision. Are you taking him like over a Brian Thomas or is it more of like a I could go either way with that.

00:08:19
Speaker 2: With that decision, Yes, I actually I think he should be a mid first round pick, especially in full PPR. I've been on a couple of shows this summer in my top down tents. I think he just outright outscores. I'm on Ross Saint Brown this year. You know, him and Nico Collins are kind of the two guys I target like that's the dream pairing at the turn. I do also have London with a little bit of an edge versus Brian Thomas Junior, because I do think there will be some touchdown regression. There's more signal for that. Although I think he's gonna be completely fine. I have no Brian Hager, but I do just outright like him, and I like him more than Neighbors too, although I'm really high on Neighbors potentially being like a net like Antonio Brown spectrum, because I think the Giants defense is low key underrated and I think the Giants are just gonna play a lot more tighter game games than they did last year to kind of pull down that one hundred and seventy target season, Neighbors had maybe to like the one fifty to one sixty five range where I outright and believe, like London, when you look at just the amount of targets he had last year, could because he goes like next to Ladd Maconkie, a player he had what fifty more targets than last year, And I mean, I really think that he could outright lead the NFL targets. I just think Chase is such a strong bet to do it. But I do think that, like he's drawing really strong odds to just stack a ton of valume. And would you pair that kind of volume with the player that comes like that draft capital and we know has like immense touchdown upside. I'm just very excited to gobble up that player on my teams.

00:09:39
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I like the call out a lot. I'm gonna move over to the running back position with my first pick. I'm gonna go with de von a Chan. Pretty safe bet. I think that a lot of like diehard fantasy players already know this, but maybe the average fantasy manager isn't totally aware of how good a Chan was last year when Tua was and wasn't in the lineup. So it splits with him with to a twenty two point six PPR points per game with Tua. For context, Saquon Barkley the best running back in Fantasy last year, twenty two point two PPR points per game across the season. So Devon a Chan with Tuatungue Bailoa last year was better than Saquon Barkley from a production standpoint. He was at eight point six points per game without Tua because that offense was just so horrific when Tua was sidelined, And obviously the receiving work is a huge reason for that. Without Tua's target chair per game nine point three percent, with Tua eighteen point five percent. And I think the thing that makes us all feel pretty confident here is, you know, you know, we're sitting here, we're saying is this sustainable?

00:10:38
Speaker 2: Is this?

00:10:39
Speaker 1: Is this receiving production sustainable? John hu Smith moving on is not a small deal. If you look at Fantasy Points data, A Chan and John new Smith were both top fifteen last year in design targets. You have John new Smith no longer there, a Chan becomes that that shorter field outlet for Tua. And so I also think about, like I think you would agree, like Miami's at this point right now where they have to make a choice where they have to say, Okay, we're gonna push the ball down the field again, We're gonna use Jalen Wattle and Tyreek Hill the way they should be used, or we're gonna continue doing what we did last year, right and probably not be not be able to get to the next next level and bye bye coaching staff. We're turning over year over year. Right. The only way they likely can become a behemoth and keep their jobs, if you will, is if they do push the ball down the field a little bit more, which the only way they're able to do that is if the offensive line plays better than they did last year. Right, So if the offensive line improves, you could say, okay, that's gonna help Tyreek Kill and Jalen Waddel. It's also going to help the run game, which is gonna help Devon a Chan. But then if you say the offensive line doesn't and they're not able to turn the corner and do what they did a couple of years ago versus last year, that's still gonna benefit a Chan because he's gonna see high target sharers and be that outlet for Tuas. So to me, no matter the direction, this Miami team goes in. I think you've got to feel good about a Chan, you know, I think he's just undervalued right now, Like I'm taking him over Ash and Gent pretty confidently. Where when you will not see that in ADP frequently, you know, I think that you start to think about you know, I'm high on CMC just because we haven't heard otherwise with his health, right, and so I'm still taking CMC over Chan, but I think he's the next click running back very easily right after CMC. So I'm gonna call out A Chan. Had him as a target last year, gonna have him as a target this year, and I feel pretty good about it.

00:12:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, what you love about a Chan is we have a two year sample of him being in RB one and completely different manners, right, you know, the hyper efficient rookie that that generated a lot of explosives, and then you know he was a little bit more value based and did it with the pass catching. If we can get kind of a marriage to those two worlds, you know, we obviously have an immense ceiling for him. I actually toyed with the idea of pushing him over Jamiir Gibbs, but I just couldn't do it. Because I was a little more like, hey, what if John Morton really wants to just like let Gibbs be fine, really the driver this offense. So but I think that goes more of a testament of where I still view Achan like a firm first round pick, and I do believe that we're going to see this offensive line play better one just because the bar's low for improvement where they played, but I do think that they when you look at what his splits were with just Austin Jackson played last year. So he had ninety two carries last year with Austin Jackson in the field, one hundred and eleven without Jackson the field, almost a fifty to fifty split. With Jackson in the field, his success rate went from thirty six point nine percent up to forty three and a half percent. His explosive rate nearly doubled seven point two percent to fourteen point one percent. His stuff rate went down from twenty six point one percent down to twenty one point seven percent. Then you add James Daniels, you add save on the interior, you have a good center in Aaron Brewer, the Tarreon Armstad and to Patrick Paul is going to be just a giant, you know loss anyways, But I do think the interior, this offensive line, they got movers and they are going to run the football better because what happened to Miami last year in a nutshell, why a Chan and John who were forced to get so many targets, was they weren't able to push people out of all those two high safety looks that they faced last year because they weren't able to run the ball. I mean when you look at Devin h And, I mean he was he was hit behind the line of scrimmage and insanely higher rate last year compared to his rookie year, and that's what kind of killed him. But even just having a guy like Austin Jackson was massive. But I think I think I'm pretty in on Miami having a bounce back here. These teams kind of get undervalued that kind of let us down the year before. I think the forty nine ers in that same bucket, which is we'll probably we'll be talking about next.

00:14:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's get to your next guy. I think based on ADP, it would be a San Francisco forty nine ers, let's hear it.

00:14:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been kind of just hammering all the forty nine ers this year, and you know, I didn't have like a I don't have a pinpoint wide receiver. That's why I think that, you know, George Kittle makes the most sense, you know, at his cost right now, especially with the context of you know where brock Bauers and Trade McBride go, and then the gap from Kittle to the next player. Although Mark Andrews definitely getting a little decent runout here, if we don'tre not going to miss in Isaiah likely for a little bit, that'd be huge for a guy that was still hyper efficient that just kind of had a snaps reduced last year. So keep an eye on that, you know, if we get some really really negative news on Isaiah Likely I miss like an extended period of time. But George Kittle was still just as good as ever last year. If he led all tight ends and yards per out run, He's done that ever since the end of the NFL. He's number one in all tight ends and yards per out run. He was great after the catch again. He was fourth among all tight ends and yards after the catch. No player that had as many receptions as him had a higher yards after the catch than Kittle either he had twenty one catches of twenty or more yards. The next closest tight end the NFL at fifteen, So you're getting those splash plays at at a low bar position, which you love. The forty nine ers, even with all the issues they had last year, they had a seventy three point four percent success rate when Kittle was the target on offense that led the entire NFL. Every player. He had thirty percent of the San Francisco end zone targets, that led all tight ends in the NFL. I do think we'll see CMC kind of bring that down because you know, a lot of the issues the four Irons had last year in the red zone, we're kind of C and C the absence of CMC induced. You know, Kittle also will be thirty two and he's only played two full NFL seasons. While Kittle, why Tredy McBride that is, and Brack Bauers are kind of the middle of their careers. That's why I don't think that he still belongs to have those two guys ranked ahead of him. But in terms of the way I'm team building this year, I end up with more Kittle where he goes because he's in that like drop off in terms of like wide receiver twos, right, Like he's getting drafted with the Garrett Wilsons, the DeVante Adams, the Marvin Harrison juniors, the Terry mclaurins. Guys, I'm not really drafting. And then when you even go to like a site like like DraftKings or something, he's getting even where where the receivers get pushed up, He's getting drafted next like the Xavier Worthies and the DJ Moores of the world. And because nothing's really changing for the forty nineers, I think to start the year, and granted we'll keep tabs on what's going on with Juwan Jennings and this, you know, is it is it a real calf injury calf injury or is it is it a hold in type of situation like he's trying to get a little more money. But you know, we've got Juwan Jennings and Ricky Piersoll starting year with brandonny with an unknown timetable, like I still have a lot of signal here where hey, this offense is gonna still run through CMC and George Kittle. Uh So when I when I look at that you know, pairing, and I'm like, all right, this is a lot so a lot of upside. While he might not have the immense target runout that Brent Bauers McBride have, this is a guy I think like could still lap those guys in touchdowns as well, which is like a huge just huge tight end position. And like I said, we brought up the forty nine ers kind of you know, schedule stuff. Oultimately, they have our top rank passing schedule at the site. This year. They faced the fifth hardest schedule. Last year they jumped to number one. They played ten games against opponents with win total to seven and a half a half or less. They face no teams the win total of eleven or higher. And then you know, kind of resetting the table here, even with last year kind of factored in. I mean, they're ninth and projected points scored this year. So yeah, I look at George Kittle and he just he's like literally falling just a perfect spot. I think where you're getting kind of a nibble on that upside. We're not paying a premium for what he did last year. But then also he's going just amongst other you know, wide receivers where he's I think the clear best pass catcher in that area of the draft.

00:17:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, there's nothing to suggest that he's like lost it, right, Like a two point six to two yards prout run rate that was actually last year, you know, third fourth best of his career, and that's that's a career where he's been over the three mark and yards per out run. I mean, he's he's so good. And last year target chare per game of not even up to twenty one percent, you lose debo and you have all these question marks at pass catcher. If that increases even by two percentage points and he gets back to like that twenty three percent ish mark, I mean, it's it's it's crazy, how how high that ceiling, how high the ceiling is, and then you know you're mentioning the passing offense. I build a really quick sort of formula to try to calculate projected touchdowns per game by team, and if you look at year over year, the team that has the biggest increase in uptick and touchdowns per game ends up being the forty nine ers this year. So I too very much him into this forty nine ers offense. I like the call out of Kittle, and look, both you and I are not necessarily always early round tight end guys. It's not always like a go to need to do. But I do think that where he goes that pocket, the opportunity costs involved there makes a ton of sense to get George Kittle. I'm gonna move on to a wide receiver. I'm gonna with DeVante Smith. If you look at what he did last year, he had probably his best season of his career, you know, like almost a twenty eight percent target share per game rate that was a career high. His pro rated yards per team pass attempt was also the highest of his career. He was at a two point one one yards per out run rate. That's the highest of his career, first time he's been over two. You know, if you look at what happened in Philly. Of course, Dallas Goddard missed a little bit of time. AJ Brown missed a little bit of time, and when one of those two dudes was out last year, DeVante Smith had a thirty one percent target share you know, in that environment, in those situations that fell by about eight nine percentage points when both those guys were active, and so people might say, okay, well, both those guys are active right now. That's not very attractive for DeVante Smith if he sees a twenty three percent target share or something in this offense. But there's a couple of things to keep in mind. Number One, he's never been below a twenty two percent target share in a single season across his career. That includes his rookie season. He's now scored fourteen point two or more PPR points per game in every single season since his rookie year, so it's three seasons. And Philly is a massive regressive regression candidate in terms of how much they're going to throw the ball. They the second lowest pass rate of any team since twenty eleven last year. Even if Smith gets a twenty two to twenty three percent target chair in this offense, he's going to see a ton more volume, a lot more volume than he did this past year. I mean, Jalen Hurts realistically could end up throwing like one hundred more passes this year than he did last year. And so if that ends up happening, you know that twenty two percent target chair is on a much much bigger pie and that's going to help him from a volume perspective, but also like the very simple way to think about DeVante Smith in my opinion is that he's being drafted arguably below his projection, right, But let's just say he's being drafted at projection right now. But we know that he has contingent upside with with not just one player, with multiple players. Right. So this is also a game theory thing where you're saying, Okay, he's projected to be the wide receiver twenty three and he's being drafted as the wide receiver twenty three, and a lot of people might be turned off by that, but this isn't like a Courtland Sutton situation where there's no one in front of him. You know that that could increase and give him an uptick with an injury and target share there is. If aj Brown goes down, DeVante Smith, we've seen in the pass could be a thirty percent target chare player. If Dallas Goddard goes down, he could be a twenty eight twenty nine percent target share player, and that's huge and an offense is going to throw the ball more this year. So right now, I think he's a smash where he goes it's a really great area of the draft in general for wide receivers in my opinion, So that's one reason why you might not be like massively overweight on him. But I think he's a really really safe bet with upside right now.

00:21:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, it sounds like you are on a same page like I've kind of been, like I've been kind of bypassing a lot of those like round three wide receivers and then getting the guys in like that that later range like the you know, the the Devonte Smiths, maybe more of the Jalen Waddles, the Alavees, the Ridleys, like George Pickens and stuff like that. But I love this. I love the shot because I thinkhen you look at just from like a accounting stats basis, like people will be like ah Dmontics with yet he actually had career lows like across the board right like targets and receiving yards last year, but on a per game basis, he actually had more more receptions per game and his yards per game was up. And then you look at what happened to the Eagles. Well, first of all, you said, like the contingent value in the past three years, he on just plays without aj Brown on the field, he's been targeted on twenty eight point nine percent was routes two point six yards per out run and that's just only counting the years that he played with AJ Brown, were not factoring his rookie year. And then you talked about the Eagles and just what happened last year. They go from having the fourth edist schedule last year to having our fourth hardest schedule. It's the most significant swing of any team. They played ten games this year against twenty twenty four playoff teams and with that layout they had a year ago, they trailed for under one hundred and thirty four snaps in the second half of games last year. That was only twenty four and a half percent of their second half snaps. They trailed for only sixty two total play in the fourth quarter all of last season, but when they were a little pass heavy. Now they do have a coordinator change from Klimorre to Kevin Patula. We'll see what kind of stays over. But in the first half of games last year, Jalen Hurts was fourteenth in the league and drop backs per game, Like they're not going to be top ten in pass right, Like, we know that, but if you're in the middle of the league. That's versus last in the league. That's a significant change. Yeah, he was thirty six. Then second half dropbacks. Jalen Hurts had one hundred and eight fewer dropbacks in the second half of games last year compared to twenty twenty three. Like, see, like your career sixty passes last year, he's gonna throw five hundred times this year. Like it's going down.

00:23:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Like, there's good, there's there's more than likely going to be one hundred more pass attems going around in that offense, hundred more targeted at times, we should say, and you know, like you said, they have a tougher schedule this year, so they'll see more negative game scripts than they did a season ago. This is a typical Like this is the same exact logic that you should have when it comes to like running backs in those ambiguous backfields where if you have a projection for a running back that gets them out, like RB twenty five and he's being drafted at RB twenty five, and he has a teammate that's also being drafted in the middle rounds with him, that tells you that if that teammate does go down because projections are based on general health like being there, right, Like we're assuming that aj Brown is healthy, that Dallas Goddard is healthy, or you know, in Pittsburgh, let's say we're assuming that Caleb Johnson and Jalen Warren are both healthy. But if they're being drafted at their projection, there's that upside of injury happening and that player then getting more work, you know, based on that. So at the very least, you're gonna likely have a player that meets expectation, which you know, we want to have players that exceed, but there's still a chance that he exceeds the expectation, right, But I'm just saying from a projection standpoint, he's at expectation DeVante Smith like where he's being drafted. But there's just so much upside within this offense, within the the the contingencies that we have with injury.

00:24:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, yep, love that.

00:24:49
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to your next player. I mean you could go technically, you could probably go to a couple different directors, like from if you're going by ADP, but you might want to go I don't know, you choose your next guy.

00:25:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, this, so this is actually a guy that I expected after the NFL Draft to probably be priced out on. And then just the way kind of drafts have settled, and we're starting to really kind of see like the formation of what ADP is going to be in August right now. Granted, you know, knock on wood, well, we hopefully don't get another injury or something that shakes this up or like another suspension, but what by and large, we are starting to settle into what we're going to see each kind of drafts look like. And my guy, my next guy is Bob Harvey Junior. You know R. J. Harvey I expected to be after the draft because no player at their draft couss rose higher. And I'm always a little bit like kind of like hesidant on those guys anyways that are going to have like this big boom. I expected him to kind of be like in the fourth round. By the time we got to this point, that's kind of where I thought. You know, obviously you get the JK. Dobbin signing and then you still have like Sean Payton stuff that like people will always be hesitant. But now that he started to settle in as like basically like a round pick sixty, like a five to six turn player. He just really falls into like a really comfortable pot of getting him on a lot of rosters right now. So because I'm drafting him a lot, I want to include him in here. I mean, this is a player that you know, my questions that were going to be on him were, you know, coming from a Gus mouse on offense. You know, definitely a college system that you know, promotes a lot of really favorable opportunity for a running back, especially a UCF running back. A lot of light boxes, a lot of outside runs. He's going to have to transition into the NFL to a lot more interior running. Even paired with a potential pumper in JK. Dobbins, He's still going to have to be a lot better, you know, after contact and get some tougher yards in the NFL than he was asked to do in college. It's just going to happen. But this is a back that has a physical profile and big playability that we love, right like you love the eighty third percent tile forty yard dash, the ninety third percent tile explosion score. And I've really come around and moved the goalpost on this archetype of running back in the NFL based on where maybe I was doing analysis like ten years ago, per se, because running backs in general, because the NFL, ever where across the board is getting lighter and leaner. You just talked about DeVante Smith, right, like, you know we've seen this in hold, Like these running backs that are more built on like big plays and you know, getting chunk plays then maybe not have like their team's goal line targets. The door is open for these guys for fantasy football to be a lot more valuable. You no longer have to be a back that gets three hundred touches anymore. Because when you look at Sean Payton, like no running back in a system has ever had more than two hundred and forty four carries in a season. We're not expecting that that to be R. J. Harvey. But you know, the positive note is that he can be a pass catcher. While no one's hit a two hundred and fifty runs with Sean Payton, he's had twenty four running backs have fifty or more targets, and that includes Javonte Williams. A year ago. Bonnicks also was sixth in target rate to running backs you know, as a rookie quarterback, I think that there's still gonna be a little bit of that that kind of you know, turning Bonix into like kind of his version of Drew Brees, like he's trying to mold in him, not saying Bonus is gonna be Drew Brees. Let's not go there yet. But what has happened with that archetype that has kind of hinting at is there's a little bit of a Konami code kind of going on now of pass catching running backs. You know, you look at obviously people if you've heard this, say like a target's worth, you know, and two point seven times more than a rushing attempt in PPR formats, and one and a half more times even in the standards scoring league. Well, running back targets are dwindling. You've done some work on this. I've done a bunch of trends on this stuff. Running Backs last year at their lowest target share in any season since targets were tracked in the NFL history. Targets per game to running backs have dropped in seven straight years. Running Backs combined for their fewest number of targets in a year since two thousand and eight, their fewest number of receptions since twenty twelve, fewest receiving touchdowns since twenty twelve. Only one running back at seventy catches last year. It's the first time we've had multiple running backs hit that threshold in the season since twenty ten. Nine running backs caught fifty more passes. That's down from fourteen to twenty twenty three, eleven and twenty twenty two. We haven't had a running back and one hundred targets in each of the past two seasons and then three of the past four years. And that's what adding a seventeenth game over that stretch. So we know we want to target these running backs that are one in their rookie contracts. Uh. You know, thirty seven percent of all running backs that have been drafted in the RB two range have been year one or year two players. Uh. And then you know you get guys in that same draft spot that have been finished as RB one seasons. Forty one percent were in years one two of their careers.

00:29:21
Speaker 1: Uh.

00:29:21
Speaker 2: And then when you look at kind of what other fits that profile, sixty two percent of those guys caught three or more passes per game. So like we know we want explosive guys that catch passes in their rookie contracts, and like, it just all lines up kind of to where RJ. Harvey's being drafted this year to fit the profile of a guy that you just want to add as an RB two on your roster, even if you've already taken a running back like I just like and he lines up back to back with Trevan Henderson. I think you can make almost all these same identical you know, you know things for But I think when I look at Denver in totality and we're going to talk about the Patriots so point of the show, I still believe that they're going to just be a better team than the Patriots are and offer a little bit more upside. Plus you're betting against JK. Dobbins versus Armondre Stevenson. I know Ramondre Stevenson not the sexiest player in the past two years, but this is still a player that is, you know, committed from a monetary stance from this organization, Like he has a contract from this from this team from a year ago. He still could be a better player with a better offensive line behind him, like I. And then you look at Dobbins with just the injury history. I just like I'd rather bet on le Broncos being a better team than the Patriots and JK. Dobbins being are more riskier pick than Ramondre Stevenson as well. For that full upside that you talked about, the contingency value that also lies within RJ. Harvey.

00:30:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look Sean Payton's teams. This dates back to twenty eleven's that's where I date my data back to. But his teams have never finished worse than sixth or lower than six than running back target chair. So we know that they're going to be targeting running backs really heavily. I had this in the draft guide too. So if we know that they're targeting running backs heavily, and there's a chance that we see high target chairs for RJ. Harvey or whomever is playing that you know backfield, I think Harvey would be sort of the default. I mean, I don't know about your stuff, like he wasn't like a massive, massive plus for me as a pass catcher coming out like analytically, but I do think that in these are the scenarios where like if you have a player who's at least neutral and maybe maybe a little bit positive as a pass catcher, but then they fall to a situation like this, then you have to feel good about what they could do as a pass catcher in the NFL. It's like if if a mari And Hampton went to Denver instead of LA, I would have liked a Marion Hampton even more in that even even though the fit, like the real football fit, makes a ton of sense in LA. From a fantasy perspective, we want those like neutral to maybe positive but not like elite pass catching prospects to be in elite pass catching running back situations because they're just then going to get the easy outs that we want in fantasy football. We want those easy targets. And so let's just say Harvey gets a ten percent target share at least this season, which I think is probably around what we would project as I think most would probably project like maybe eleven twelve percent. But let's say he gets to a ten percent target chair. If you look since twenty fourteen at rookie running backs that have been drafted between RB nineteen and RB forty two, there's been ten of them. Only one of them ended up playing below expectation at their ADP, which was ironically Javonte Williams, but it was only by point three points per game. On average, those players were outperforming ADP expectation by two point six PPR points per game, which is one of the best subsets that you can basically find at the running back position. So I'm in too, like I like Travon Henderson a lot too, like you said, because I think that you can literally apply a lot of the same logic to Travon Henderson, even you know, situationally, with the offense that he's joining, they'll likely be looking to target the running back position as well. There's just there's just such a backbone with Sean Payton. It's just so easy to say, oh yeah, they're gonna be, you know, top five in the league more than likely in running back target share. And if you can expose the player like Harvey back, there chances are he's gonna take advantage.

00:33:03
Speaker 2: I love it all.

00:33:04
Speaker 1: Right, let's move on to my next player. I'm gonna go with Tetero McMillan. Now, I do want to say I think this take is much more geared towards home leagues and such. And if you look at more of like the mainstream sites ADPs, he goes lower than what you'd see on like DraftKings, Best Ball or any sort of best ball environment. So I do I do want to at least throw that caveat out there is that I like him in best ball, don't get me wrong, but I think he's gonna be in even better value. I know he's a better value in a typical home league, And that's sort of what this show is about. We're looking at season long drafts, but you know, at the end of the day, like I like to look at ADP and I work off of that ADP when I do some of this analysis, especially with rookies, and what we've seen historically with these guys. There's been nineteen rookie wide receivers drafted between wide receiver nineteen and forty two since twenty fourteen. Four of those nineteen, so twenty one percent of them have exceeded ADP expectation by four more people your points per game, which is just well well above the average rate of what we'll see from a from a wide receiver in that grouping. And then that number is actually four of fourteen when looking at only at rookie wide receivers who had a ZAP score of ninety five or higher, which is where Teed McMillan is in. So essentially, if you get these like middle round rookie wide receivers who are really good prospects, obviously McMillan is one of those really good prospects, being a top ten pick in the NFL draft, those guys hit at a really really strong rate. You look at Carolina right now, the weapons are fine, but you finally have a player in McMillan who can play inside out. He was really good in the slot in college. I mean like really good in the slot, and so he can definitely move inside. But obviously, like they're more than likely gonna throw them on the perimeter and allow him to play that role and be a target magnet, you know, on the outside. And he's already getting some coach speak out of Carolina and being targeted at a really heavy rate. I mean, this is really simple for me. It's just the kind of profile that you want to target in home leagues. You want to get really strong, solid rookie prospects. A wide receiver who were you know, in this case, top ten in the draft, who can lead their offense and targets pretty easily. I think McMillan is comfortably the best wide receiver that they have on that team right now, despite you know, drafting a first round or last year and laget at the end of the first round, and you know, having an Adam Thielen who's more than you know obviously has played better than expected at his age. But you know, TEP, McMillan is the best wide receiver they have on that team right now, and so I'm confident that that he's going to be heavily involved see a high target share ADP Trend's favorite his app score favors it. I think it's as simple as that.

00:35:41
Speaker 2: Yep. Yeah, hard to push back on that. What you like about him coming into the NFL versus like a Marvin Harris and junior last year, is he has that sample of winning versatility, you know, especially after the catch right Like he was third in his class in mistackle rate, you know, thirty four and a half percent of his receptions he forced the misstack on, like those inbreakers, all of that stuff off of play action. Because Carolina can run the football and they have an offensive line built to run the football. Too, especially when it's healthy. They had trouble keeping all those guys in the field last year. But all of that stuff that that inbreaking stuff is where he can win where we didn't see that from Marbineers and Junior in college or in the NFL. Right, Like you know, Marvin Harris Junior was his seven and a half percent rate. I just told you it was thirty five, literally five times better. We saw him play in the slot for twenty one point six percent of his snaps last year, almost five yards per out run on those routes. And he's not going to be a guy with with Adam Thielen on the roster and even with now Renfro's insurance for right feeling. But if he's like around that twenty percent slot, right, that's like all we kind of care about. Like we're not looking to be like a fifty to fifty player. Like this kind of moonlight and you have some creative opportunities, get enough of that kind of versattle usage just kind of smooth out and round out your portfolio, which is what held marbon Aers and Junior back last year, you know, because you know you'd have told me we got a guy with like that had eight touchdowns. Like I'm like, oh, he smashed right, he did it. You know. It's like you know, and then you have like that. He said that that touchdown upside with a guy like Ted mcmilland two. So yeah, I'm completely on board with that too. And like you said, he's probably gonna be a guy ends up being a little more valuable when you move into more like the general population leagues.

00:37:15
Speaker 1: Yes, all right, let's hear your next one a wide receiver, another wide receiver.

00:37:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, my guy is a wide receiver too, And you know, it kind of fits the mold of what we talked about. Players that are fairly priced for kind of their median projection, but offer just a lot more upside, whether it be contingent value or through maybe that projection being maybe something offering like a larger range of outcomes to a player. And that's George Pickens. He has started to surge a little bit, but I think it's like he's gonna be another one of these guys. When you get to your home leagues, people be like, oh, I drafted that dude before, but good luck, Like you know exactly because we have seen it, like he's I mean he hasn't been hiring wide receiver thirty eight points per game his first three years in the of his career. But he's a guy I think when you look at his where he's priced and where his projection is, it's completely fine. H This is a guy that is he's gonna lose some target share, but just get a lot more terms of opportunity and quality opportunities. I mean, Ceedee Lamb, you know, has just a lot of targets to kind of shed to another player. He had seventy three more targets than the next closest wide receiver on the roster, Like he can Ceedee Lamb could be a complete wide receiver one and give up a plenty of targets to where George Pickens has a really high target share. I mean, to this point in his career, we know we're getting the upside per play. He's averaged over fifteen yards per catch career targets. This is who they're from. One hundred and twenty nine from Kenny Pickett. Then it goes to fifty eight, Russell Wilson, forty six, Mitchell Trubisky forty five justin fields another fifteen from Mason Ruffi he's average over fifteen yards or catch.

00:38:40
Speaker 1: With all of those guys, I mean, one of a couple. Couple of those are Super Bowl champions, rich.

00:38:46
Speaker 2: Our super Bowl champions, many of them, the two of them at least. Yeah. But as a byproduct that list of names, I said, and because of how he's had to earn his targets, fifteen point four percent of his career targets have been inaccurate throws the only wide receivers of his many targets as George Pickens, and a higher inaccurate target rate over that spanner Deontay Johnson, a lot overlap with those quarterbacks, shocking, shocking, Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, and DJ Moore. Those are the only guys since entering the NFL Dak Prescott seventh in accuracy rate when throwing to wide receivers. So even if George Pickens ruins the same exact player and he's stuck as a field stretcher, he's this is a really big, good, good, strong fit. Twenty eight percent of his career targets have been on throws twenty or more yards downfield. No player since Pickards and in the NFL as many targets and as higher rate as him since entering the NFL, Dak Prescott fourth and rating on those deep throws eighth inaccuracy on those throws. We talked about potential volume the last year. I mean, he's joining a team that had one hundred more dropbacks than the Pittsburgh Steelers had last year, and Brian Schoenheimer gets kind of a bad rep. He's kind of changed stripe since his early days. You know, his past three seasons as a coordinator, his teams have ranked fourth, ninth, and tenth and dropbacks. I know Clayton Adams is going to be the offensive cour or. Nator will see how much input that has. But when you look at this backfield in Dallas and then losing now another left tackle to the potential start to season, like this is the team kind of built structurally from a roster stance to just kind of wing it. Especially their secondary is awful. They can rush the passer in their secondary's bad.

00:40:16
Speaker 1: But it's like it's it feels like Cincinnati last year. Yeah, right, Like it's it's it's like the NFC version of it.

00:40:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, one percent. So I think they're just a team, like even if they probably want to be balanced. They're just not going to be like positioned, I think, really run the football really effectively as well. So I think that if you just lay this out for George Pickens, if he's the same player he's been, it's an upgrade for what he's been had. Then he's in a better system to potentially have more volume. Also, like what if he just has a little more nuanced to his game than we've seen because the systems he's been. We saw this last year at T Higgins when Tyler Boyd left it. It wasn't really factored into T Higgins to say like, hey, well how does Tyler Boyd impact T Higgins? And we've seen Tyler Boyd have his career high highest rate of throat like targets with ten yards of the line of scrimmage, they running stuff like he's just running speed outs and hitches like he George Pickens can totally do that. And then what if something happens to ceede Lamb, which no one wants to have this and the range vot comes happened, But what if something were to happen to Ceedee Lamb and he would miss a month of the season or something. George Pickens now becomes the wide receiver one for the Dallas Cowboys versus the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dak Prescott versus you know, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. So that all of those things lining up make me say like, this is a player that has valuearies being drafted and then just a lot higher ceiling through either system upgrade or contingency value something were to happen to the Lion.

00:41:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, I did the math in the draft guy this year, and I looked at Pickens to just maintain his one hundred and twenty five target pace that he was sort of on last year. You know, he had the injury last year obviously, but he would basically have to have like a twenty percent target share based on what Dallas has done over the last two years with Shottenneimer as offensive coordinator. So a twenty percent target share is lower than what projection is. So he's more than likely going to see from a projection projection standpoint, you know, like fifteen more targets or so, just based on that alone, and then you obviously talk about the contingency upside, and also like what if George Pickens is just good and we haven't seen the full potential from him. As you're saying, he has now back to back seasons of a two or better yards perout run rate. And if you look at the since twenty eleven, there's been twenty nine wide receivers who have had multiple yards parau run rates seasons above two during their first three years in the league. Twenty three of the twenty nine ended up scoring at least sixteen or more pper points per game in a season throughout their careers. The players who haven't are they're obviously still active. But it's Jalen Wattle who has been close, right, Chris Alave who's had concussion issues, Jaden Reed, and Christian Watson who are in this really weird and annoying offense where they're not running a full complement of routes. And then George Pickens, like, that's what we're talking about here, of these really good players, really efficient players on a per route run basis. Now imagine those routes increasing and improving with Dak Prescott throwing him the rock. I'm in on Pickens. I think this is, like you said, a lot like the Devonte Smith situation where he's being drafted maybe around where he's projected from a points per game standpoint, But there's a lot of upside because there's injuries that can happen. There's also just the fact that, like this could be an offense where they throw fifty five percent of their targets to two guys at the at the end of the season. You know, like it could just be an offense where they're just funneling all their looks like we saw in Miami a couple of years ago, Like they're just funneling all of their looks to these two players, and obviously Pickens would really benefit from them.

00:43:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, one last thing just to shout out on this. You know, I'm sure you did this work too, because you do the ADP trend stuff too. But Dwayne McFarland had a recent article on this two and showed like how we know we always want to target like those year two breakout guys, but year five also has like a different spike in players careers, and it's you know, because of the change of scenery stuff like year four and year five, because these guys that have these environmental changes where we think like a player is what he is, but then like something changes. You to change teams at disappoints, but like these environmental changes can really spike for a player. We saw us with Courtlandt last year too.

00:44:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, step member Stephan Diggs when Diggs went to Buffalo. That's that's probably the easiest go to example of that. All right, next, I'm going to go to tight end. I'm going to talk about everyone's favorite breakout tight end this year, and that's that's Tucker Craft, who's now dealing with I think a groin injury. I think Like I was talking to Matthew Betts, who's going to be on becoming a best ball bro on Wednesday, and he was like, he mentioned how everyone just seems to have a groin injury right now. It's just it's just going around. But look, this is more to me of a marriage of the talent. Is probably there with some of the ADP trends that we really need for tight ends to break out. So we'll start with the talent side. I guess you know, one point six to one yards per out run rate last year. That's fine, it's not necessarily elite. But the one thing that we did see is that he was so ungodly good. Tucker craft after the catch last year, his YAK per reception was like three yards better than George Kittle, who was second in the NFL. And in yards after the catch per reception. That's a number that's definitely going to regress. And I talked about this on the Regression Show a bit, but it does tell you that he has that athleticism that we always need out of these tight ends to really become like an elite every week starter. That's giving us some sort of edge, right, And so that's great. His target share last year in an offense that wasn't throwing the ball a lot, and I think we would both agree as a team that's a candidate to throw the ball a lot more this year fifteen percent target share, So his overall volume numbers were lower, which is also kind of depressing his ADP a little bit and making him not as obvious of a pick to at least like a home league situation or something, because when you have a lower target share, like a mediocre target share on a lower passing volume offense, and obviously you're not gonna have as much volume in general, I'm not going to score as many fantasy points. But like I said, Green Bays should be throwing the ball a lot more this year. They're onety six teams, I guess not one of more than that, But there's been thirty six teams historically before last year who have next season data that had a pass rate in between that forty six to fifty percent range. Last year, Green Bay was in that forty eight percent range, so right in the middle thirty of the thirty six improved on that pass rate the following season. So we're going to see more than likely. And look at Matt Lafleor's history in Green Bay as well, they've been way above the pass rate that they were at last year. But then you just go to the tight end himself. I mean, you know, he had the fifth highest route participation at tight end last year. Like I said, a strong, strong enough yards per out run rate. And then look at the trends with these tight ends. When we're looking at breakout tight ends, we want players who are on teams without obvious secure stud wide receiver pass catchers, right, And so when you look at Green Bay and just look at ADP, that's all you have to do is just look at where these guys are being drafted. You can like Matthew Golden and you can like Jayden Reid and be high on these players, but the market is telling us that there's no stud in that offense. It's going to be locked into a twenty five percent type target share in the offense, and we want these tight ends to be top two options in their passing attack. That's generally what we see, uh where where we see breakouts come from and them ending up as more, you know, top five tight end options. So with there being some ambiguity with the pass catchers there, with this team likely going to throw the ball more, I think that we should feel good about the quarterback situation in general, Like it's definitely not a negative, you know, to his overall profiles, not like David and Joku, where we don't even know who the quarterback is going to be. I think it all comes together to say that the market's probably been right that this could be the year that Tucker Tucker Craft ends up breaking out.

00:47:40
Speaker 2: I mean, he looks a lot like George Kittle. Light it does you know who I brought, but you know, similar a similar offensive system. A guy that you know, necessarily because you look at Kittle early in his career was a guy that didn't get like he had these same problems right like they like it was like, oh, hyper efficient player, where are we getting all the targets from? And that kind of always kept Kittle kind of depressed or get him a little more valatile on a week to week basis, when hey, a lot of tight ends don't score very many points in a given week, but you do care about when they do score the points that they can, they could tilt things. I mean, he was tight end five and yards after the catch number one in yards after the catch per reception. Only Kittle and brock Bauers had as many twenty yard catches as Tucker Craft last season. He was also tight end twelve in terms of end zone share, which you like, see he's getting those scoring opportunities as well. And when I went under the hood because I almost had Jordan Love as my QB, well I love, I.

00:48:29
Speaker 1: Love Love this year.

00:48:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, looking at just kind of the Packers, they were obviously a lot more there. There was a lot more of a signal they're another team that's not going to be like top ten in pass rate. But like it was the groin injury that kind of sank Jordan Love last year where they like they just did not throw after his groin injury. But like, if you look at the first five games, you know, they had a sixty one percent drop back rate with Love on the field, and Love was like a QB. He was QB fourteen or higher in every one of those games. So if we can get kind of pass rate, I just think it offers a lot more you know, individual upside we'll probably just still deal with like some like une in production, but that's all priced in with Tucker Craft is here, Like I did a tight end like breakdown of like how tight ends were actually used and using only their snaps on the field and availability and his usage on a per route basis and where he lines up is almost identical to Sam Laporta, where a player that gets drafted you know, tight end four versus tight end twelve, you know. And it's like, man, like, why pay the iron price for the Porto when we basically have a very similar potential player here in Tucker Craft.

00:49:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, And look, there's a big difference because I know that people listening are probably like, oh, I don't really want to invest in a Green Bay wide receiver, you know, in a in a managed season long league, which I understand. I think that they're a much more and this is a cop out for sure, but they're a much more attractive team in Best Ball than they are in manage Really like a Matthew Golden Jade and Reid all of that, I like, you know, the potential of like a Golden just because we don't know and there's that mystery box, but like it more than likely outcome with these wide receivers that were just frustrated week to week, Like that's the likely outcome, and in Best Ball you don't have to worry about that. But I'd say what's different about the tight end position is that it's the tight end position, right And and with Tucker Craft, you're gonna get peaks and valleys at tight end with all tight ends outside of the guys that you know you're paying up for. So why not go for the guy who at least has that profile that that could be you know, kidt Alesque that you're getting at a discount as opposed to buying into sort of those like middle round.

00:50:25
Speaker 2: Guys Hawkins and right right, I'm yeah, locked up with you on that. From like a from like an opportunity cost management side.

00:50:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's go. We got we each have a quarterback left, so give me yours and then I'll talk about mine.

00:50:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, mine is is boring. But you know, especially like everyone brings up this player his ADP and no one in the offense moves and I think we'll probably see you know, Stefan Diggs, you know, spoiler, it's it's gonna be Drake May. But uh yeah, I mean Drake May still just checks all the boxes I look at. I'm very curious being on the show with you, uh, to get your kind of take on what you're doing with the elite quarterbacks this year, because I brought up where Kittle goes in kind of that flat spot at wide receiver and I'm kind of that way with the quarterbacks too. And granted only only four teams can get one of the top four quarterbacks, sure and so like, but like I look at the way quarterback is being played this year, and it's like, there's no way I can take Garrett Wilson over Josh Allen, Like there's just no way I can do it.

00:51:21
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, no, no, I agree. I mean that, like like people still to this day are coming at me and being like, oh, it's not a late round QB. I'm like, yeah, it hasn't been a late round QB year for I've been talking about this for the last four or five years now, basically since Lamar Jackson's first MVP season, where the markets seemed to finally realize the stuff that you had written about a decade before that about the economy code and the importance of mobility and such. But yeah, I mean, like we are seeing pockets in these drafts where you feel a lot more comfortable just getting the quarterback in that round three area and then getting your wide receivers you can get you can pair a running back, Like to me, if I know that we're going off top of a little bit here, but I think that people want to hear this because it's like the very very high level basic way of drafting this year, in my opinion, in a way that you can go if you're getting an elite quarterback, you get a running back and wide receiver in the first two rounds, and you pair you know, like an eight Chan with a Drake London if you can or something like that, right, you get a running back and wide receiver in the first two rounds, you get a quarterback and elite quarterback in round three if you're gonna go that route, and if you can go that route and maybe you don't aren't able to get a kittle in that case or one of the elite tight ends, then you can go with a quarterback because in round four or five and six or some really good wide receivers that you're still gonna be able to get. And so like the guys that we the DeVante Smith's, the George Pickens and others, and so I don't see enough of a delta between the Garrett Wilson's of the world, even the jsns to a degree I think has he like I love JSN, but there's definitely some red flags just that overall environment right this season, whereas you can wait around and you can also at that elite quarterback and you could wait a round or two and get some of these wide receivers. Yeah, it makes a lot of sense, and it just goes back to the idea that at the quarterback position with these elite guys, if you do if you base everything off of a VARp analysis, you know, value over replacement player analysis, it might show that the quarterbacks are just as valuable in that range as a Garrett Wilson right, based on how they perform versus their baseline player. The difference is that we know who these quarterbacks are going to be at the end of the season. That's it. The predictability side of things is everything right now, and that still goes sort of on and so like I've almost flipped like I'm more early round quarterback than others are, because I don't think that people are recognizing the predictability side of things nearly enough still. Now, the hard part is is that I do think and we're gonna talk about Drake may here in a second, I think there's a lot of really really good late round options as well, which makes it really difficult to be all in on that early round quarterback strategy. So I'm gonna I'm gonna to say the easy way to go about this would be shallow leagues. Right, If you're in a ten teamer, if you're in a home league that you know that you can you can find edges at running back and wide receiver, it's a lot easier to take on that opportunity cost and getting that early round quarterback. Go for it, Right, If it's if it's that kind of environment, deeper leagues where you have to start more running backs and more wide receivers a little bit more difficult to take on that opportunity cost, yeah.

00:54:23
Speaker 2: One hundred percent, and then that kind of ties into like the the other side of that point is there are only four of those guys, and I know some people will try to press Joe Burrow in there, but he doesn't fit the profile. Guys. He just doesn't. I mean he doesn't. You might get the runout that you had last year because everything top down looks similar, but he has to throw forty passing touchdowns. Yeah, he has too, and it's just a tough bet to make. So so in a twelve team league, like once those four quarterbacks are gone, you're Josh Allen Lamar, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels that fit like that, that true archetype that you're looking for, the true high floor, high ceiling guys. There's still eight teams your league that need a quarter and when I look at the rest of the field, to me, it's just to sit on your hand situation, because I think from QB five to maybe maybe as far as QB twenty two, it's very I think it's very flat. So like I don't think you should be in a hurry to even like I said, not even not even get Joe Burrow, But you shouldn't be in a hurry to get you know, Bo Nix or Kyler Murray, who are typically like in that QB seven QB eight range, I think you should wait. And to me, like the guy that's still the most appealing to wait on, that checks enough boxes and is still at such a palatable price is still Drake May, who's still going on after guys like Caleb Williams like which I think he's just an outright better bet. I mean, he was already a better player as a rookie, And you can make all the same arguments that people are making for Caleb Williams for Drake May. So let's just flip it back and just like talk about Drake May a little bit since taking over, you know, after week six as the starter in his games play, he was QB seven and fantasy points per game. In those full games played, he was a QB ten and expected points per game, which is kind of right, like right where I have him, Like I'm I'm right at QB nine right in that area goes lower than that. They had three new starters at an offensive line, which is absolutely massive because you look at this new England offensive line last year, they were thirty first in ESPN's pass block win rate. They were thirty first in PFF's pass blocking grade from a clean pocket last year. Drake May's EPA per drop back from a clean pocket was this was higher than jayde and Daniels. And we know clean pocket stuff is stickier than under pressure stuff. So you like that as well. Let's know, not a dunk on Jaydon Daniels or to say like he should be drafted with it. It's just a context of where Drake yeah, he was good. Yeah, So you add Morgan Moses, you add Will Campbell, you had Garrett Bradbury. The tackle spots were the most significant areas in need. I mean you look at Dave played Demontre Jacobs last year at right tackle the most apps. He was eighty six a month all tackles, some pressure rate allowed. Morgan Moses was tenth. Morgan mos a little bit longer in the tooth, but hey, they're upgrading Will Campbell. You have to bet on a rookie left tackle. But again the bar is so low from just be better than what they got out of Vederian Low who played their most steps. He was seventy first and pressure rate allowed amongst tackles. So offensive line, big time upgrade. We're also getting the pass catcher improvement. And again you can poke some holes in these guys, like maybe the offensive lineman, but they are upgrades. Stefan Diggs, Kyle Williams, Treveon Henderson, guys that changed the fabric of this passing game. In twenty twenty four, New England wide receivers twenty eighth in catches, dead last in receiving yards, tied for the second fewest touchdowns. You know, you talk about Diggs, he's thirty two coming off in ACL. That's also priced in at where Stefon Diggs is. I think we'll see him climb a little bit still this last month. But when he played filled in for Nico Collins, like we saw, he wasn't just like this tertiary slot guy. He averaged actually two point four yards per outrun on the outslot outside last season and with the Murrow Douglas kind of having that like eleven personnel slot roll kind of locked in. We'll get to see, you know, Diggs play outside a little bit more. The arrow has just been constantly pointing up for Kyle Williams from the draft, draft process through training camp like he's still another one of these drum beat guys. So that's an upgrade. And then also like there's a low key thing that's not being talked about with h Drake May and it's Josh McDaniels, right, And you know, Josh McDaniels. There's a reason Josh McDaniels has had so many lifelines that fail as a head coach, and it's because he's been a damn good offensive coordinator. And you'll get his last two full jobs, I mean, his last full season with Derek Carr, that that offense punched above this weight class. And then you think about what he had that last year in New England with like a ghost of Cam Newton, Like it wasn't even like that was that was such a shell of what Cam Newton was as a player. And you know, so I do think that we'll see him have a not scramble as much as we saw Drake makes. He was second in the NFL in scramble yardage. You know, behind Jayden Daniels, I think he won't scramble as much. But he also is a wild card because he did this going back to North Carolina almost swore a family podcast.

00:58:49
Speaker 1: He earlier family podcast.

00:58:51
Speaker 2: But like you'll see Drake Waye once in a while be like, you know, I'm gonna try to run over that linebacker. Like that's like he's got that like wild card gene in him.

00:58:58
Speaker 1: A hunter.

00:58:59
Speaker 2: I love, like he just checks that profile because when you look at those guys that are kind of where he's getting drafted around, like the Jared Goffs, even Brock Perdy, who I genuinely love. We talked about the forty nine ers, He's gonna give you a little bit more of that rushing upside. So I mean it does make a lot of sense. I know he's like every analysts favorite player to kind of talk about, But when I really get froze out at quarterback, I'm just like, all right, I was gonna get Drake may Yeah.

00:59:21
Speaker 1: Look, and the research I did this offseason is a smaller sample because there's not a ton of them, but of the second year quarterbacks who kind of go in that same range, the QBE like QB seven to QB eighteen, area second year quarterbacks are by far the best bets to make in terms of sealing outcomes, right Like they're they're players that more than likely, you know, because because I'm talking QB seven to QB eighteen, So we're not talking like CJ. Stroud last year, who are you know who had broken out his rookie season or Jaden Daniels who had broken out obviously last year into this year. So they're not part of that. Like those kinds of players aren't part of this data set. It's more so the guys that we just don't have answers for yet, right Like the players that we don't know if they're legit or not, they generally do really really well versus expectation, and I'm expecting that with Drake May as well. I'm definitely in on on May. I'm gonna stick with quarterback for the final guy, I'm gonna go with with Anthony Richardson, a player who you know, we go from a player with a lot of promise to a player with not a ton of promise. But we're playing a game of fantasy football here.

01:00:22
Speaker 2: Here are pandering to your guest, I am, I.

01:00:25
Speaker 1: Am, we gotta go gotta go with the konom a strictly just just such a straight up Konami code uh player here. But look, this is strictly a play on what if, right, Like, I think it's a little bit easier to go after Anthony Richardson in leagues where you can stream, where you know the waiver wire is gonna gonna look healthy, where you have deep benches, and maybe you can take a pair of quarterbacks, like maybe you get a Drake Mayn then just throw the dart and Anthony Richardson towards the end of your draft. Nothing wrong with that, right, But last year, like, let's just give this context about like what this ceiling could hypothetic b in a scenario where he's just an outlier. What I mean by outlier is he was that bad to start his career and he turns things around and he's actually like a decent enough passer, right, which I don't think any of us should bet on and assume is going to happen. But we're not paying for that right now exactly, and so we're only looking at the stealing outcome. Last year, he was dead last in the league. According to next Gen stats and completion percentage over expected, he was at minus eleven point four percent and completion percentage over expected. Cooper Rush was the next player on this list of thirty six qualified quarterbacks, he was the next worst at minus five point seven percent. So Anthony Richardson was like twice as bad as the second worst quarterback and completion percentage over expected. But despite having one of the worst seasons that we've ever seen from an accuracy standpoint, and games that he was able to throw ninety percent or more of Indianapolis pass attempts, he averaged seventeen point four points per game in those contests. Right, only four teen quarterbacks last year had more twenty plus point performances than Anthony Richardson, and he only started eleven games. And he was horrible as a thrower, Like he was a horrible passer last year. And it's all because of the rushing upside the infrastructure in Indianapolis. Not bad, you, I mean, you and I both love Josh Dowens as a player. Michael Pittman is a solid perimeter guy. You know, they have guys who can stretch the field, and Alec Pierce and hopefully Adi Mitchell can bring it together. He's gotten some negative reports out of camp, but regardless, even Alec Pierce showed that he can stretch the field pretty well last season. Then they add Tyler Warren to the mix. They have Jonathan Taylor back there. I mean, like the weapons at his disposal. If we had like a very average quarterback, like a you know, like if you were to rank quarterbacks, and this quarterback would rank as a player and that like sixteen to twenty range, we would be elevating that player in fantasy football if he were playing on the Colts because of the weapons that they have, right, And so my argument for Anthony Richardson is he was horrible as a thrower last year, still average over seventeen points per game in games where he was able to basically complete and just start and play in what if he does get better as a thrower, And by all accounts right now, he is at least getting better seemingly, right, And you know, I think it's very very risky to do this obviously, but in Week one they get Miami and that's kind of an attractive situation for an opposing quarterback. So I'm not saying that you would confidently stream him. But if he does start in Week one, if he wins that starting quarterback job, you're at least gonna be able to see what he might be able to do in a decent matchup, in a plus matchup, and that alone can help you a lot throughout the season from a if you're pairing quarterbacks together, trying to put together a Frankenstein and put together that QB one season without having to invest in that QB one. So I'm gonna throw Anthony Richardson out there if his price increases, you know, into that like Drake may Range or even like a JJ McCarthy range. I don't think you should be going that high with him, but I doubt that's going to happen because he burned so many people last year and we know that he's not that great of a thrower.

01:04:11
Speaker 2: Right, yeah, you know, the inaccuracy stuff, and then paired with like I mean he was actually third and like drop right two from receivers and like it was just a complete like infrastructure, like all of it was bad. It was like how we got here. But I actually do like kind of him, especially like one in these Bestball drafts, because not just because he's a basketball player, but the price is so cheap, especially in his three quarterback builds super flex, like he's a slam like you cannot you should be trying to get him in super flex, Yeah, because of the and also there's like a fomo attached to it too, right, Like I just don't want someone else to have him if he does work out, like yeah, of course, because then it's like, oh, someone caught that free square when it was obvious archtype. So I actually love like the shout of him at the end of the draft. He's not someone I draft in every draft, but especially like said, when you're just waiting on quarterback and throwing some of these like maybe like a may Or, like a Sea J. Stroud or something like, and pairing him with like those guys that just kind of go in that range, and just kind of seeing where he starts the year. Uh, and if you can kind of get like more of an extended run as a starter. I do think they're incentivized to try to start him as the season too, So like I do think you would win the job. I do also think too, from just a practice stance, like he probably is like because he's a great athlete, Like he probably looks good in practice, like he's he's a dude that like then when you get in the when the bolts start flying, all these things that kind of show up in his game. But he's a young player, doesn't really have a huge sample size even going back to high school starting games, So why not? Right, Like again, like it's just a why not pick? And like it's like one of these things like, hey, why take like a Matthew Stafford, right, who's obviously a real bet, he's a better real life quarterback, but like from a fantasy stance, like you you're not getting anything, Like there's no surplus value in Matthew Stafford right right, Like a bunch of dudes in your league are gonna be on waivers over the course of the season that are producing like Matthew Stafford, but there might only be none. There will be none if he hits like an antheater. Rich. It's funny because everyone's just like Justin Fields immediately went back to being like a QB one and ADP and it's like very similar, right like.

01:06:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean it's it's the exact same logic as Justin Fields. I mean, we feel better about Fields as well.

01:06:14
Speaker 2: We feel better about him starting the year and starting games.

01:06:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, right, and like him just being the quarterback. But like, realistically, if we're looking at what Fields is going to produce as a thrower of the football in terms of points per game as a thrower of the football, I don't think that his passing points per game if him and Anthony Richardson started seventeen games, would be so dramatically different than Anthony Richardson's if at all. Right, and so if the if the rushing production maybe is comparable, maybe we feel a little bit better about Fields just because we have a bigger backbone. But regardless, like they're there, probably shouldn't be. And that's not to say that you shouldn't be draft Fields, because I think you should be drafting Fields, but like the gap between the two is pretty crazy when you when you sit back and think.

01:06:54
Speaker 2: From a range of outcome stances, yes, it would be absolutely And that's the other thing you're getting priced in the injury stuff because people will talk about, well, he hasn't been on the field either for health, but again all of that is priced in, like he's just out there. Like even if you knew that the Colts right now are starting him week one. Where wouldes ADP really go?

01:07:13
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. I don't think it's I don't think it's going to rise dramatically. Like again, if it goes into like even JJ McCarthy range, who has obviously upside with like Kevin O'Connell and might even have some mobility stuff.

01:07:25
Speaker 2: Right now, he's being drafted like around Diami Brown and Chicka Conquo.

01:07:29
Speaker 1: Like right, let's just let's just get Anthony Richardson. Guys, draft Anthony, Why would you not do for your team? Yes, exactly. I mean, like, think about the upside of Anthony richards because like we all intuitively know that the late rounds are for I mean, I would argue that all rounds are still for upside, but we know for sure the late rounds are purely for upside. And you're sitting there telling me that Kate Atton has the same kind of upside as as Anthony Richardson does in his position, There's just no way.

01:07:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, absolutely, And apologies to Kate On for having that month of that was good last year. That's true when all the Buccaneers wide receivers were out, Yes, yes.

01:08:05
Speaker 1: Rich, this is great man. I think people will definitely dig it. Let everyone where they can find you what you're working on all that good stuff. Yeah.

01:08:12
Speaker 2: Absolutely, you go to Shartpuple onnounced dot com or in the throes of draft, you know season where I'm putting out articles on series every week. This week I'm doing an article on the kind of like the stickiest stats for every position because you have always been like a great supporter of mine too. Like, if anyone listening to this and made it to this point in the show wants a little bit of that late round QB discount, you can go over to the site and get the draft kit for one dollar if you use promo code draft, And that's only available for you. I've done it for like three other sites this season. But like, because you and I have been so tight, and you're gonna come and do like the home and away So if you want to hear the avoids, I know you do your own avoids here too, but you and I have always done the home and away targets and avoids. So Jj'll be on my podcast next week and we'll be doing like kind of this version between us two. So definitely go check that out over at the site.

01:08:59
Speaker 1: Definitely check out Rich's work. My sounding board in the fantasy football space and has been for years now. Make sure you check out the Laterounddraft guide over on lateround dot com. Subscribe to the show, join the Patreon. We announced a new little perk to the Patreon that you should go check out. It is pretty sweet, but otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in.