Ozzie Albies Deep Dive and Braves 2025 Win Projections

00:00:21
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome to episode one four to eight the Hammer Territory Podcast. I am your host, Brad rolland coming to you Onday Sunday evening post Super Bowl edition of the Hemy Territory Podcast. We are part of the follow Territory Network, but check got the entire network, and we cover the Atlanta Braves all year round on this podcast. Please subscribe, rate, review, tell your friends, help us spread the world. We definitely appreciate that. And usually I am not by myself and later on I'll be joined by my usual co host, Scott Coleman. I should say also we have some recent episodes that you should get definitely listening to, focusing heavily on Specish Fallenbach, Michael Harris, Marcelo Zuna, plus full coverage of a Jergson profar signing with the Braves, and recent visits from Battler Baseball America and Kyle Glazer from our partners over there at Friar Territory covering the Padres. And again I'll have Scott with me momentarily to discuss Ozzie Albi's in deep Dive fashion Ozzi's player capsule. Basically, we've been doing these player capsule looks at different players on the roster who are keys to the both past, present and future really of the Braves. And we recorded this a few days ago, partially in an effort to avoid recording during the Super Bowl, and of course this year, if you watch the game, it was not terribly competitive. But I'm recording this post super Bowl in quick fashion. But also we like to keep the content flowing here at Hammer Territory, so that is coming up in just one moment. But I should say it's with football over. It's officially for everyone baseball and basically it always is for us. We are talking about baseball all year round on this podcast, but also pitchers and catchers report. This week, yes, this week is going to be You'll be starting to see truck videos and players getting out of their car with all their stuff and stretching and getting loose at all that stuff. It's happening right now. Basically, people are en route to Florida and Arizona for the brands. It's Florida, et cetera. And look, it's still very early in the process here, even though the season is sort of looming now as we sort of pivot collectively as a country. Basically from football over to baseball for most of us to kind of do both in some respects, and moves will still happen during this week in the league as well as during screen training. Guys will get hurt, they'll be signings, they'll be trades. But most of the autison work has been done across baseball, for instance, like people the Cubs, I believe, had their guys report today on Sunday, So we're getting very much there. And I want to give you a little bit of a look at a couple of systems of projections that came out in the last couple of days and about maybe the last week or so, talking about like where teams might stack up. And I always will say this, this is not gospel. This stuff is wrong sometimes, but it is a good informed way of looking up numbers and the models to kind of see what the Braves are projected to do over the next you know, seven or eight months essentially. And you know, also as a reminder if you are not familiar with the project systems, generally speaking, they tend to group teams closer to the middle. They don't like project outliers. Basically, you know, once this season actually happens, you'll get more outliers, teams will get hurt, somebody will go crazy hot and win a bunch of games, et cetera. Some teams will actually just get really unlucky injuries, breakouts, et cetera. But with that said, two of them came out this week and they're probably the two that I will follow the most closely as far as like history is concerned in recent years, and we'll get to that before we get to Azzi. So first, as Fangraphs, which we cite a lot on the podcast, I think Fangrapts is a fantastic resource generally speaking, good writing over there as well, and just great numbers always have, really just great stats up and down the board. It's a great resource if you are a baseball fan. But this one got even more local attention because it's even higher on the Braves than the other one, which is Pakoda, which we'll get to in just one second, but is projecting the Braves at ninety three and a half wins and also with ninety two point nine percent playoff odds at this point. And it is worth noting that Fangrafts was also very high on the Braves before last season, which of course, was kind of the season from hell for the Braves, but everything kind of went wrong and they still made the playoffs to be fair, so not a huge surprise that they like the Braves and their roster. But this model really likes Atlanta like quite a bit. The Dodgers. Of course, the big bad Dodgers are at ninety seven point seven wins at fangrafts, so about four more than the Braves. But here's the big one. No other team in baseball is protected from more than eighty eight wins at fangraphs. So I get that copyat earlier about how they pulled teams to the middle in these projections. That's happening here because you know, look, obviously this seems pretty clear, but not only two teams are going to actually have eighty eight wins or more. That's not going to happen in realistic life. But in general, it's pretty noteworthy that the Braves are kind of in their own mini tier according to f grass projections. It's the Dodgers in their own tier, which kind of makes some sense looking at their roster, but a lot of respect for the Braves from that model. Also a positive indicator on the Braves in general. Is that they're giving the Braves a sixty two point nine percent chance to win the N East. That does feel kind of high, given that the Phillies and Mets are both pretty good teams. But still pretty encouraging stuff there. Now, the second one that I will cite is not as not quite as high on the Braves, but still pretty encouraging. It's it's actually called Pakoda. It's from Baseball Perspectives, which is a long time This has been a long time mindl dating back to like, you know, twenty years ago, basically, but the Dodgers have a one hundred and three point eight projected win number at Pakota. That is the highest that I can recall in a very very long time by any of these like mainstream projection systems. Not a huge surprise given that they do have a super team basically, but that is a true outlier number in this system like this, because well, if they might win more than that, that's definitely possible. But to have this be a projection by a model that tends to bring things back forward the middle is pretty crazy. They do have four teams at the CODA with ninety plus wins, and the Braves are one of them, just as they were at Fangrafts. In fact, PA Coda projects the Braves the one in the NL East, but also again to have the second most ones in baseball. So both of these two very prominent projections have the Braves with these second most wins in all of baseball, behind only the Dodgers, which basically everyone agrees that's the best roster. But I know, after kind of a quiet and admittedly frustrating winter so far for the Braves, that was mitigated a little bit by the profile signing, which I did like quite a bit. As we share on the podcast, there's spent a lot of negativity that I've seen, and I totally understand why. But it's kind of a reminder when you look beyond the Braves bubble, so to speak, to say, like around baseball, people will still think the Braves are going to be very, very good and the roster is very good even in its current form. Does that guarantee anything, absolutely not, but it's notable. Nonetheless, they're not as much of a favorite in the NL East at Pacoda as they are at Fangrafts because the Mets actually are the third team in baseball at ninety one point seven wins in this model, just behind the Braves at ninety two point three, but a pretty strong brace projection here about eighty eight percent playoff odds at Pakota and uh look it's two numbers.

00:07:22
Speaker 2: But there you go.

00:07:24
Speaker 1: Last thing. It's not a projecting system, but its a I would say, a variable that is worth considering. Now, I will always give this caveat It does not matter if you enjoy or that you buy into the gambling sports betting realm. I'm not telling you to do that. It is what it is. But what it is if you, even if you're not looking into that world, is that is a very useful tool for projections because the market is generally pretty smart and osmegers are pretty smart on these things. And right now, pretty much across the board from what I was able to find on this Sunday, the Braves are projected to win with their over under number is ninety three and a half wins, which is right in line with that projection at fangrafts of like, you know, ninety three ninety four wins. That may not be the right number, That might not win the division if it happens that way, but it is once again like a top three or four number in the entire major leagues, behind the Dodgers in that same tier, as like the Yankees and the Mets in the Phillies to be fair, which three teams in the Nationalague East. But that's a little bit of a check in. I wanted to give you at the top yier because again pitchers and catchers are reporting this week, so we have now basically arrived. We'll still be doing preview content pretty much for the next six weeks because the Braves don't play games that matter for that long. But the only officer pickoff to Baseball in a lot of ways is when the Super Bowl ends. And there you go. That happened earlier tonight as I'm recording this podcast, Okay, As I said before, it'll be myself in Scott Coleman, talking all things Ozzie Alby's from his history to last year to the projections for the future. Also it happens when, if when and if he might miss some time this season. We'll get into all that and more, But first a word from our friends at Folly Territory and our sponsors one eight hundred flowers.

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00:10:09
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome back to the Hammer Territory Podcast. We have another kind of standalone special edition of the show, part of our ongoing player capsule series during the winter as we get closer and closer to spring training. Today we'll be focused on Ozzi Alby's and I am joined as I always am. Scott Coleman. Hello, sir, how are you hello?

00:10:28
Speaker 2: Brad? I am doing well until a moment ago, and I'm going to tell you why. When we were doing some prep for this episode of the podcast, I realized that this is now going to be Ozzy Alby's's eighth full season with the Braves and his ninth season overall since he debuted. I don't know, man, I mean, I'm in my early mid thirties. I am to the age now where I am starting to get older than most professional athletes, and maybe it's messing with me a little bit, but that blew my mind when I was like, holy cow, it has been nine years since Ozzy Alby's first came up with the Braves. Really at the start of this run and this maybe not dynasty, but many dynasty if you will, And just crazy that it's been that long for a player who has done a lot of good things for this team.

00:11:18
Speaker 1: First of all, welcome because I'm older than you, so you've joined my party now of being as old or older than most players. As long as Charlie Morton's holding on, we're all safe. I'm a true stal older than I am, so j Justice Chavez is still playing, so that's something to encourage us all. But yeah, you're right, it has been a long time since Ozzie came up. He's still, by the way, relatively young. He just turned twenty eight. Most guys who have played this much and this long or not twenty eight, but he came up early. He was twenty when he arrived and a fun player. It's been a bit of a roller coaster with Ozzie's we'll get into but I'm still a very viable player on spoiler alert, a fantastic contract still if you are the team. As a reminder, if you were just join us for the first time, just found us on YouTube or something like that, we are Hamiltony. We are part of foul Territory. Please check us out and subscribe to the podcast. We cover the Braves all year round, and we're doing some of these like standalone episodes. We've done one on Matt Olsen, Austin Riley. We're kind of going through the roster positionally, really, but in baseball a lot of positions are kind of like one player and some auxiliary on the margins, and we're doing the kind of big guns first. And here we are with Ozzie Alby, so he referenent scott ninth season with the Braves. He's been really good, as we'll come back to on the whole, But of course there's more of a split now. I think for a while, Braves fans were pretty confident in saying Ozzie was a pretty awesome player. He was not great this last year. That's worth noting. I guess we should probably start there. I'm talking about his twenty twenty four season. He missed time for one thing. He wasn't particularly healthy this last year. He broke his wrist. He played less than one hundred games overall last season, and that was not out of the ordinary for that Braves team. As we covered in depth, everyone seemed to be hurt all of last season. But he came back at the end, just wasn't all that great. So probab speaking Scott, what did you make of Ozzie's twenty twenty four season, even if I kind of joke and maybe maybe not even joked that he kind of was appropriate for the rest of the team with what the season actually went.

00:13:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it was the mass unit last season, and it really is a shame that we won't ever get to know just how good and how high of a ceiling last year's team could have had, especially offensively, if they hadn't had so many injuries to support what was an otherwise phenomenal pitching staff. You know, with Ozzy, he was coming off such a good year in twenty twenty three and expectations were high. But really it's kind of been a theme that maybe they're not necessarily his fault, some of the injuries that Ozzie has had over the years, but it just feels like he has a knack for picking up really unfortunate injuries. It'd be one thing if he was just constantly pulling hamstrings or straining an oblique or something like that. Then it's like, Okay, let's really evaluate your offseason workouts you're conditioning, But at least to my untrained eye, there's nothing that tells me Ozzy Alby's is not in prime shape. It's really just these fluky broken wrist, broken toe, you know, those type of injuries that aren't even really his fault more times than not. But at the end of the day, the Braves need Ozzy to be healthy, and there's only so many things a player can do or not do to stay on the field. But it was even when Ozzy Alby's was on the field, I think it's fair to say that last year was a decent disappointment, especially considering just how good he was the year before.

00:14:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. I think it's fair to say he had his best offensive season, or at least one of his top two the previous year. It's twenty twenty three. He had a career high in home runs. He had his biggest power season for sure in twenty three. He had I think it was twenty nineteen where he was just incredible basically and everything else. But you know, yeah, when he was playing last year, he wasn't bad, but he wasn't great. I think that's fair to say he was like a league average hitter. Ish, you know nothing great. Obviously, the splits are well documented. His uh, switch hitting has been a topic for a long time. We don't have to go to that rabbit hole too much on the podcast, but if you are not familiar, Ozzie has always, always, always mashed left handed pitching. And I guess right, he's he's not so good. And ideally you want to flip that because you faced a lot more right as the lefties, and he kind of has that reverse split. He's a switch hitter. But it is what it is, even to the point where it's been baited about. The brain has not really gone down this road too much about Ozzie just stopping his switch hitting. That has not come up a lot, but it's a popular online topic that we could maybe discuss if you want to. But I mean, he I think it's interesting because the injury stuff kind of parlays itself into he's really small man. Like he's not small in the sense like he's a very you might have, like he's in great shape. He's extremely strong, Like it's crazy how strong he is. The fact that Ozzie is listed at five eight, he might even be that tall, quite honestly, having stood next to him. He's a very very short human being. But he's not a slap hitter. He never has been. He's always been. He's not been an on base guy. It's even now, I don't know how much of this is out there, but it's still we get stuff in our mention sometimes or questions and it's like, do you guys know that Ozzie is really a power hitter? Like he's not a on base Maybe it's because he hit he hits high on a lineup, which we discussed in previous podcasts, not because of Azzie, but like after they signed Profar for instance, it's like, all right, Profar is kind of a more ideal top of the order guy than Ozzie is. But Snicker's been married to Ozzie. There none of us was not me, and I think, I think you he's not really a top of the order hitter. He's really a middle of the order hitter because he has the power. But he happens to be five eight play second base, and there's that five eight second base thing that's like, oh, he has to have the top of the order, right.

00:16:51
Speaker 2: All right, of course it's the nineteen eighties. Yeah, you have to have an undersized middle infielder at the top of your lineup at all times. Yeah yeah, I mean if you were looking at Ozzy in his numbers without knowing anything about him, you would think he's like a middle of the order corner infielder, yep, corner outfielder. But that's not really his game. And at this point we mentioned this is now going to be his eighth full season with the Braves, I think it's fair to say that we know exactly who Ozzy Alby's is. He's never been an on base player. I think the one probably biggest knock on Ozzy offensively is just the plate discipline. Man. I mean he doesn't strike out a ton either, which is worth saying. But I think Ozzy is the king of just being really aggressive in the batter's box. I think to a detriment at times where he will be ahead two to oho and instead of sitting on something, he'll expand the zone and then kind of let the pitcher get back into the bat instead of really making a picture pay for being behind in the count. That's just who he is that you know. If Ozzy was a twelve percent walk, great guy, or even a nine or ten walk great guy, he'd be an even better hitter than he is already, because you're absolutely right. The power has been there really since day one. And we talked about this Braves lineup next season. Maybe Brian Snicker will have him at the top of the order against left handed pitching, because Ozzy just absolutely crushes lefties but against righty's, and I think that's something like sixty five seventy percent of the time amongst starting pitchers. I would put him in the middle of the order and really try to put that power to work and hopefully drive in a whole bunch of runs, assuming everybody else ahead of him is hitting like we expect them to.

00:18:36
Speaker 1: I do think, or maybe maybe it's hope at this point, which still really early, is recording this. I think that it's very logical to put Profar high in the line up with especially without Ronnie. But once Ronnie comes back, have Ronnie and Profar you know, up there at the top, and have Ozzi slided into a more you know, obviously behind the likes of Riley and Olsen and Ozuna probably like you know, hitting six most nights something like that for Ozzie makes sense to me, it doesn't, you know, that's what. It doesn't matter as much as people might think that it does. But he does have that profile of a real power hitter. In last year, the home run rate was down, but he was actually on pace for like fifty doubles if he had played the whole season. He was a double machine last year when he was playing, which obviously rather have home runs. But he's still hitting for a decent amount of power. And you know, he's at the age where for a lot of guys, twenty eight is like their absolute prime. I don't know if that's going to be hit the case for Ozzie, he is not to be, you know, bring it up again.

00:19:28
Speaker 2: He is small.

00:19:29
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know how much that effects. It does not have a traditional body type. But you know, for most guys, twenty eight's not You're not at risk of declining at twenty eight physically, provided you're healthy. So in theory, like his projections as we're geting too at the end of the podcast a little bit, are pretty encouraging, Like all the data would tell you, he may not be what he was in twenty twenty three again, where he was like a five win player and was awesome, but I think he's probably going to be better than he was in twenty twenty four, provided he was actually on the field.

00:19:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair to say. And you know, I know we have talked about the baseball changing year over year for years now on this podcast. But a player with Ozzie's skill type and what he does in order to be successful, he is going to be impacted by baseballs that don't carry as well more than a good number of players do. He's a power guy. You mentioned the doubles were there, but the home runs were down a bit. I don't know if that's necessarily anything different with Ozzie Alby's. I think it might have been as simple as just they change the baseballs and players who get there, especially who need a lot of homers in order to really carry their value. Because again, Ozzie's on base last season was like three hundred and frankly that's not good enough. But if he's slugging and hitting the crap out of the baseball, you can live with it because you trade the power for the on base. So we'll see. It's kind of a guess as to every year what baseball, Major League Baseball is gonna throw out there on opening day. But yeah, I mean again, we said it a little while ago. I think we know who Ozzie is, and I think it's also fair to say that this Braves team is significantly better when Ozzie Alby's is doing his thing and being the player that we know he can be, because you're talking about a top five or so second basement in the game when everything is going right.

00:21:20
Speaker 1: I wanted to ask you about his defense at some point so we could just do that now. It's polarizing, to be sure. Early in his career, like he was not seen as this like you know, absolute like goal glover, but was always like a you know, pretty good defender. It felt like I think when in the last year or two, it's become polarized to the point where like some people were just like done watching Ozzie play second base. Like you see some reactions they're like, get this guy off the field at second base. We all had a couple of laughing laugh moments last year when when Maryfield came in and it was just kind of different than Ozzy, especially with the arm. One thing that's not up for debate is that Ozzie has one of the weaker arms you're going to see. He does not throw the baseball hard or fast. He does not release the ball fast. He does not throw the ball hard. It's pretty rough, but there is a bit of a split on his defense. The two most prominent metrics are outs above average and defensive run Saved. DRS kind of likes Ozzie not incredibly well, but like thinks he's fine basically, and outs above Average does not. And I wonder where you fall on the spectrum of like, please get him off the field and have him DH, which obviously the Brives can't do, and he's totally fine because I feel like no one's making the argument at this point. Maybe you will, Scott, maybe maybe you'll shock me and do this that he's really really good defensively anymore. But it's like, okay, how bothered are you buy his defense? That's kind of the question.

00:22:42
Speaker 2: It's funny, so out above Average absolutely hates Ozzy Alby's, correct. I mean, like you said he's so bad that he should be a DH is like one side of the argument here, Like I don't. I don't see that at least the old eye test. I think Ozzy Alby's does a really good job making the plays that he is supposed to. I don't necessarily remember him making a bunch of like, holy cow, how on earth did he make that play type of plays last year? The arm is bad. That is probably my one concern. And I use the word concern kind of loosely because second base is probably the position on the infield where you're not really concerned that much about an arm. But you're absolutely right. I mean, even Wit Marrifield in his mid late thirties, him turning double plays compared to the speed that Ozzie turns double plays was like jarring to me, and even David Fletcher, who was like never heard from again after April. David Fletcher filled in for a couple of games for Ozzie when he got hurt the first time, and even that was like, oh, all right, that's what a second baseman turning a double play should probably look like, compared to the painfully slow urn that Ozzie does more times than not. So I'm not alarmed by the defense. I think the Braves are fine. They're at second base. But if if he ever falls off even more, maybe this upcoming year, then I would really be a little more concerned. Than I am. Now.

00:24:13
Speaker 1: I think we agree on that wholeheartedly, and yeah, it really comes. It's mostly the double place cause you know, occasionally you'll have to range to your right from second base and make a difficult throw around second, and that's like, he can't really make that play very well. But it's mostly the double play turns that they're frustrating. They could definitely cost you out. So I'm not going to argue he's good, because he's not. But I don't think he's a complete and utter disaster in a way that it's framed some places. You said it the way that you said it well about how he doesn't want to make mistakes. I believe I read this at Battery Power, where you still work. I'm retired from Battery Power, but a great place, and I still read it. I think Ozzie was actually like number one in baseball not making errors at second base last year. And I'm not a big like use errors to judge defense. That's very antiquated because it doesn't tell you anything other than it. But if you want to say guy makes the play he's supposed to make, he's done that, and that's not the highest bar. But you know, don't make mistakes. It's like something you can kind of get away.

00:25:12
Speaker 2: With most of them. Oh yeah, I mean errors can just totally tank an inning. Yes, and that's absolutely a skill and makes the plays that he is assigned to make. Absolutely And at second base, you know, the Braves, they're in a position where you have a really good center fielder behind him, and when he's healthy, you have a good right fielder with Ronald Acunya Junior. So he does have some good support behind him. So if the Braves outfield was just terrible, maybe we would feel the impact of him not being a super awesome defender a little more. But yeah, I mean sure, I'd love for him to bounce back, maybe at least in the eyes of the metrics, to just reflect our own eye test of Ozzie. But yeah, he's fine. I mean it could be worse.

00:26:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, it actually was a little better last year across the board in the metrics than the previous year. It's ironic because we just said earlier like twenty twenty three was as offensive. He had a great season, but his defense was way down the metrics in twenty twenty three. Even if the bout average, which is not a fan of Aussie, as we just discussed, was a little higher on him last year than it was the previous year. Part of that was that he played less, but even on a per game basis, it was a little bit more encouraging. Get out to average would be great. He is like, he's not like he's a thirty seven year old where he can't possibly get it back like I think guys, he might just be able to be okay. And also I will say this, we talked about ali in Arcia a lot this winter, and we won't do that a lot in this podcast. Or Arcia being a pretty good defender is helpful. If they were to have a worse shortstop, you start to worry a little bit more. I would not that those guys interact to too much, but like it does, positioning wise, all those things, like it's not way as meaningful as it is in the outfield where like Michael Harris could cover up for some sins and left and right sometimes, but it does help a little bit when you have a good shortstop. If you're word about second mice.

00:27:03
Speaker 2: So if you had me make a list of what are my five biggest concerns for the Braves this upcoming season or even ten biggest concerns second base defense would not even come across my mind.

00:27:15
Speaker 1: Definitely not we agree there.

00:27:17
Speaker 2: But right. But you know, that's the point of these player capsules. It's to dig into players a little bit more than maybe the five thousand foot take that we have to do on podcasts throughout the year and really kind of dig in on what was his strengths, what were his weaknesses, Where can Ozzie get better? Are there any areas where that we're concerned about, what's his role going to be? All those things? So, yeah, defense, I don't know if anyone necessarily thinks of him as a gold glover at second base, but I do. I am higher on Ozzie all these defensively than some of the metrics would show. And I also think most baseball executives would tell you that the defensive metrics are far from perfect. I mean, even the people at Fangrafts or whatever company is recording the metrics, I would probably be the first to tell you that they are not perfect and full proof. But yeah, that's that's kind of my take on his defense.

00:28:10
Speaker 1: Well, we should kind of do a brief look ahead to twenty twenty five and we talked about what Ozzie is generally speaking, but you know, part of calculation.

00:28:20
Speaker 2: Let's just say it.

00:28:21
Speaker 1: The contract's still really good for Ozzy.

00:28:23
Speaker 2: Obvious, yes it is.

00:28:24
Speaker 1: We've discussed the contracts of Mine Olsen and Australian previous episodes. They are of course signed for longer and for a lot more money than Ozzie currently is. And I think still in the time that I've been covering baseball, the reaction to Ozzie's extension when he signed it nationally was is still a one of a kind reaction. It was literally like everyone was just jaw on the floor that he signed the contract he signed. It's litigated to death, but he still has two more actually sorry, three more years of team control. This year is the final season that's guaranteed for Ozzie at seven million dollars. After twenty twenty five, he has two club options for seven million dollars each, which blows my mind age twenty nine to thirty. Club options so obviously just team favored, because what a club options are is basically, if the team they're designed to be incredibly favorable to the team, if they want you the number they pick you up, if they don't they let you go? Very simple, man, it's so crazy to stare at this this cap sheet basically and be like, oh, this is still what he's gonna get paid this year. So even if he's the guy which is we don't which we don't want. But if he's the guy he was last year banged up, doesn't pay hit that well, he was still a value last year. And I think we agree to varying degrees probably about how comp's gonna be this year. But the risk of Ozzie underperforming that contract is like very very very low, and it does. It's one of those things that people cannot sometimes forget about the Braves and their team bloating process when there's the debates about, you know, how much they can spend and how much they can you know do it for agency. Part of why they're able to do what they've been able to do is having a guy like I'll see, I've making seven million dollars for a long time, So not much to add there. I mean, I know I just kind of did the whole thing was my own Scott. But like it's such a it's still at a highst everybody. Just as a casual reminder, he's making very little.

00:30:22
Speaker 2: And I know that baseball salaries have have really grown over the last few years since Ozzie signed that deal, But man, I mean that agent, even if even if the guaranteed years were at seven million dollars, which is a criminal underpay, you would have at least thought the agent was like, sure, we'll do club options, but they got to be at fifteen million dollars to really make it.

00:30:49
Speaker 1: The club offics just being seven million dollars, it really is. Of all the things in the contract that were nightmarish from the player side, that is probably the worst part. Because look, if Ozzie just you know, bought out his arbitration or whatever, maybe a couple of years of extension, sure it hit the market now or hit the market next year at twenty nine, like you could have thought, okay, ef he has an okay season, he would make real money. Like I don't know what I would get paid if he's a pre Asian right now, I don't know what IZA would get, but it would be a it would be a chunk of money. It would be he wouldn't be he wouldn't he wouldn't be getting Willia Doomas money or anything. Like that he's still a second baseman, but he would get a big, a pretty big multi year contract.

00:31:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, like five, I was. It's a fascinating question. Actually, if Ozzy Alby's was a free agent this winter, I would say, like, oh, he's twenty eight, like just.

00:31:39
Speaker 1: Turn twenty eight two, so this is being a twenty eighth season that we're going into.

00:31:43
Speaker 2: Now, I'm gonna say like five years and eighty million dollars.

00:31:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, something like that, And I think that could be a good value still for him if he's the guy he's been at times. But regardless, the Braves have him for three years and twenty one million, and only one of those years is guaranteed, So not I'll be the guy that knocks on wood if something disastrous happened to Ozzie today and he couldn't play anymore, Like I'm not even saying injury, but like he just forgot to play baseball. We'll say he just was terrible this year, he's the worst player in baseball or whatever. The Braves can either give him one more chance at seven million dollars next year, or they could just say Ozzie shake hands World Series winner and let him go for seven million dollars this year total. That's all they would owe him. It's just it's just so crazy. So that's a boring topic in some respects, but it's a good reminder of what is the huge value. And you know, look, just so we just to get out in front of the YouTube common I can already see coming up to our way. Yes, seven million dollars is a lot of American currency for a lot of people. We do understand that, I promise we do. This is not a normal line of work. If I made seven million dollars, I'd be absolutely thrilled, but I don't act. But look, honestly, should be making fifteen twenty million dollars right now, like in his prime. He's been a thirty plus million dollar place in terms of value that he provides to the team, and he's just not making that much money. So it's helpful with the team. If all you care about it's the Braves, your thrilled.

00:33:07
Speaker 2: Oh, it's great for the Braves. You want the Braves to build the best twenty six man roster and the best forty man roster. Imaginable seven million dollars for your second basement is a heist and helps the Braves out. I hope, I genuinely hope that when it's all said and done after the next three years, presumably, I mean, you're right, something would have to go very, very, very weirdly wrong for Ozzie to not be with the Braves the next three years. But I sincerely hope that whenever he is ready for free agency, he's coming off a monster season and gets a really nice second contract because he deserves it. I mean, we haven't talked about Ozzie always off the field, but I mean just talk about he seems like such a good, genuine human being. Everyone loves him always on MLB socials with his fish. He has this awesome fish pond at his home. He does a ton with animals and like dogs and cats, like I love players who go out of their way to be community members and take a stand with causes that mean a lot to them. So zero drama, maybe not like a superstar even a star level, but a very good baseball player for heck, almost a decade now, and I mean zero drama off the field, and again that is not always the case for baseball players or just professional athletes in general.

00:34:27
Speaker 1: And use that word like, I think he's been a star. I wouldn't say he's been a superstar, but like there have been three or four seasons of which he like has very clearly been a star level player in the majors. He's not Ronald Acunya. He's not even Riley or Olsen, I don't think. But he's in the second tier down there's been you know, every every year it's like a right of passage that M WILLB network will come up with their second base rankings and Ozzy's like twelfth, and I lose my mind every single year. It happened again this year. By the way, he's still way too little on those rankings. I saw that the other day. But you pull this that, I will credit it to you. But since Ozzie came him up in twenty seventeen, he is the fourth best second baseman in the majors over that sample size by fangrafts. Woar, If you're a top five player at your position over that large as a sample, you're basically a star. Like you're not a superstar, but like you're you know, that's what he is. And again he wasn't that last year. So that's you're always good as your most recent season in a lot of people's minds, and I totally understand that. But I think he's, if anything, probably been underrated during his time in Atlanta, and the question is what if he can kind of get back to where he was there? So do you want to talk about what he's going to be this year? Because projection wise, he's like, you know, three to win player coming into this season in the way that Fangrafts is, you know, Zips and Steamer, all those places are projecting him. Their depth chart combination projection has the Brives number ten in baseball at second base, so you know, top third of the league. That's kind of in the middle basically of where OZI was last year and where oz has been in the past. Does that strike you as reasonable? Like what would you what does the Scott Coleman projector system say?

00:36:04
Speaker 2: I would say so, if if Ozzie were to hit his projections of a one to ten w RC plus and three war, I would take that all day long.

00:36:15
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's a really good player. Uh not in a superstar but like yeah, and we actually on the show that we did post Jerkson Profar, we kind of laughed about like maybe Profar is like the seventh best hero on the team and still really good. It's kind of similar for Ozzy, like Ozzy Can, if he has that season, he might be their six or seventh best player, and yet for most teams he'd be like their third best player. Yeah, it's just he's really good and there's upside beyond that we've seen I mean literally twenty twenty three, so you don't have to go back too far. He was way way, way better than that. So I think that this is a reasonable projection. Like you said, one ten w RC plus three wins, I think he could be a five win player. Again, wouldn't bat an eye. Obviously, he could be worse, like he could be what it was last year, and that wouldn't be great. He would be like a two win player or a full season from last year, which is gonna get you killed. Like you're totally fine on that. But also it would be underwhelming for Braves fans.

00:37:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, yes, And I said it a little while ago. I'll say it one more time. If the Braves get a good, healthy season from Ozzi Alby's it just raises their ceiling that much more. And for a team that is trying to bounce back after such a disastrous season last year, and some of that was injuries, but a lot of it too is just basically every player not named Marcelo Zuna underperforming offensively. Yeah, part of the raising the bar and getting back to the you know, upper nineties, low one hundred win totals from his recent as two years ago, is having a healthy and productive Ozzie Alby's in the middle of the lineup, and in a perfect world, you just said it, he's batting sixth or seventh behind six really really good baseball players, and he has one hundred RBI because every time he goes up there, he's got a couple of all stars batting ahead of him, and and that would be a really really good sign for the Braves next season if if Ozzie's out there for one hundred and fifty one hundred and sixty games and hopefully the guy's hitting ahead of him are are living up to the hope and production that we've seen in the past.

00:38:21
Speaker 1: For sure, we should quickly say what happens if Ozzie gets hurt, because we've done that in all these episodes. It's like, all right, what's the contacy playing? They don't really have a built in backup second baseman, like you're gonna have one utility infielder in the modern game. Basically, if Ozzie was out for a long time, I think it would be Nacho Alvarez time. Does that strike you as a reasonable take. If Ozzie okay, okay, we'll say let's say it's it's April fifteenth, the Braves announced ozz is gonna be out for three months, I kind of think they would probably go to Nacho at second base only because well, at with their current roster. Obviously the roster can change. But the other guys that you would mention, you know, it's Nick Allen, h Christian is it Christian? Cairo's how you say his name?

00:39:06
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think so.

00:39:08
Speaker 1: They're on the forty man their backup in fields. That's they are like the very boring we at least Nick Allen's a very boring backup been field. Cairo's a little bit more talented, more hot, a little more upside there, it seems like. But the brain is the way that brains have operated in recent years when guys have gotten hurt is if it's short term, they'll just kind of plug the gap. With their backup guy. If it's long term, they've been more way to go to the system, like, for instance, when Von Gristom was tied to play second base for the Braves because as it got hurt for a while, they want to christ Nacho is not one Gristom. But it's kind of a similar situation. Is that Is that seem reasonable? I don't know, we're kind of guessing, but.

00:39:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, assuming Nacho Alvarez is in the organization.

00:39:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, if he's on the team, that's a good guy out to give on this evergreen episode that Nasho is still on the on the roster as we're talking.

00:39:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, what's old brand wittmer Field.

00:40:00
Speaker 1: Up to is honestly, it's you your shell available right now somewhere?

00:40:04
Speaker 2: Could you right? You know? I would, I would think, without knowing what the Braves feel of Nacho Alvarez internally, assuming he is on the team, if the Braves were two weeks into the season and lost all these for however long, I would wonder if they would try to go out there and add a veteran. I'm just not sure that Nacho is ready for the majors right now, and that's not now it might it might be Nick.

00:40:28
Speaker 1: Allen, just for the record, like he might just be that guy.

00:40:30
Speaker 2: And for Nacho again, it's not a knock on him that he's not necessarily ready for everyday life in the major leagues. He just moved so quickly through the minor leagues last season, and I think it's more than fair to say he probably needs some more time to really develop and learn how to drive the baseball and how big league pitchers are going to try to pitch him. So, uh yeah, in an ideal world, we don't have to find out, but if Ozzie gets hurt again, it might be a little ugly at second base for a while, we think. Get one question that I want to answer, and it's basically someone asked us if Profar could play second base because he has it's been a while, so I looked this up.

00:41:11
Speaker 1: Profar was a middle infielder by trade. As a young player, played shortstop. He's actually played I think it's like two hundred games at second base in his major league career. It's not a small sample size, but he hasn't been a He hasn't been a regular second baseman since like twenty twenty one. I think he played ten games there for the Padres. I would guess he'd be pretty bad at second base. Yeah, he would probably Look, if you've got an EMERGENC situation during a game, hey, Heydrix sid you're playing second base for a while, he might not just embarrass you. It'd be better than another better than sending Matt also in a second base, which some point, Wow, that don't be I almost said I almostoid Ozuna just to be even more shock factory, but I don't think so on Profar, because that was it was actually a pretty entertaining email we got. But it was a galaxy brain. Okay, guys, what if and it was like a multiposition change. Anyway, it was Galaxy brain, but it was one of the things was Profar second base. And I'm like, number one, I think you probably hate Oz's defense to even even suggest this. And number two, I'm pretty confident Ozzy would be a lot better defensively than drugsp Proofar. So I don't know why you would do that, but it would have to be he could play the situation.

00:42:21
Speaker 2: You know. Maybe I don't know, but I think one thing with Profar is that, yes, he could probably take a glove and play every position other than catcher. And I mean anybody can play any position, but he could stand in center field for a couple inn.

00:42:36
Speaker 1: Sure, yeah, I mean he probably you probably wouldn't wanted to play most spots like that, but he could. I think he's played. Actually, he's one of those guys that's actually played I think every Yeah, he's played every position on the field. I'm looking at this right now. In his career, he has played every position other than catcher.

00:42:53
Speaker 2: There you go at some point.

00:42:54
Speaker 1: So yeah, anyway, this is not the profar episode. We've done plenty of that already. So Ozzy Albi's look, I love Ozzie. Let's just be transparent. I've always been an Ausie guy. I'm very high on Aussy. I think he's been underrated for a long time. That is still my stance. He was not very good this last year. Hopefully he comes out of that. Shout out to our guy. Our former co host Eric Cole, who would one hundred percent right now, mentioned that at one point I want an Ozzie to play shortstop or be traded because he wasn't playing shortstop anymore. I did say that on the podcast. It was like eight years ago and it was wrong. But can you imagine Scott right now Ozzy playing short stuff with his current arm. Can you imagine I was playing short stuff. It'd be very funny. He couldn't do it.

00:43:40
Speaker 2: I don't think he could do it, thankfully, despite your insistence on the Braves trading.

00:43:45
Speaker 1: It also wasn't an existence. It became like glore because Eric brought it up like a hundred times. I did say it to be he was right that I said that. My whole point was, all right, if he's not playing shortstop, you probably should trade him because second basement are not that valuable. And then he became a three time I'll start second base, So maybe I'm an idiot. This is the story.

00:44:02
Speaker 2: In your face, Brad No, I agree with everything you just said. Really a big fan of Ozzy. Alby's talked about just the player off the field. It seems like a good dude, and I really do hope he bounces back. It would be great for Ozzy, it would be great for the Braves, and I don't want to find out what happens at second base if he goes down again, because it would not be great, especially for a team that already has a bit of a pretty gigantic question mark at shortstop to the second. Baseman's right, So yeah, hopefully good things ahead for Ozzy Alby's And yeah, I mean if you tell me that he bounces back in a big way, I would not be surprised in the least.

00:44:45
Speaker 1: We agree on that, and stay healthy Ozzy as the that's for all these but certainly would be helpful if he was on the field more than he was in twenty twenty four. All right, Scott, that's all we have on this capsule. Once you have more to add on the Ozzi Opoisis experience, we can sot off this one. In the meantime, perhaps someone has been furiously searching for Ozzy Albi's on YouTube and they'll just fire us for the first time. If that's the case, where can they find more of your Braves musings on the internet?

00:45:15
Speaker 2: I am at Scott Coleman fifty five on socials. I also do a little bit of writing still over at battery power dot com. I know we plug them a couple of times in this episode, but if you're a Braves fan and you're not checking out Battery Power, the team over there does such a good job covering the braves day in and day out, so I would very happily plug the work by Well, my stuff is nothing special, but there's a lot of really smart people over at Battery Power who I would recommend. And yeah, Brad, this was a good episode with you, and we'll be back for another one soon. We will certainly be back, we always are on the podcast. Please subscribe to hamber Territory anywhere you find your podcast Apple, Spotify, YouTube if you want to see us on camera, and that's always a fun experience.

00:45:57
Speaker 1: I have to say, you just get to watch Scott laugh at me person on the camera. But anyway, rate review. Occasionally we'll get an ugly one star review. Let's just neutralize those lots of five stars to neutralize the one star reviews. Everybody, thanks for listening. We definitely appreciate it and we'll see you all next time.