Late-Round Perspectives: Dave Kluge

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Dave Klugi is a staff writer and podcaster at Football Guys, where he hosts the Football Guys Fantasy Football show.

00:00:06
Speaker 2: He's a Jay.

00:00:06
Speaker 1: Cutler, apologist, a husband, an outdoorsman, and the best way to describe his Twitter game would be sarcastic. These are his Late Round perspectives. This episode is sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. If you haven't played over at Underdog yet, now's the perfect time. There are tons of different bestball leagues that you can join, and there's definitely a league out there that fits what you're looking for, and you can use all the things that I've talked about with guests on becoming a best ball bro to crush those drafts. But like I said, now's the right time to join up because if you go and you sign up and use promo code Late Round, you not only get a nice deposit offer, but you also get a free Late Round Draft guide that's a twenty five dollars guide email to your inbox after signing up for absolutely free. So head to Underdog Fantasy dot com, sign up using promo code late Round and make it a posit. I can confirm it's a really, really fun platform to play on. Now back to the show.

00:01:13
Speaker 3: The legendary cold open. I've heard so much about this was it, Yeah, prep.

00:01:17
Speaker 2: Anything, No, that's it's funny.

00:01:19
Speaker 1: And when I had Alfredo on, it was the same kind of same kind of reaction of like, man, this is this is what the cold opens like.

00:01:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's fun And Elfreda and I we started doing it earlier in this offseason as well, because we would always you know, streaming ard takes some time to kind of like warm up. It always cuts off and muddies those first few seconds. So we were having some really fun conversations before the show and we said, why not make this a part of the show. And it has just gotten like more and more off the wall every single episode.

00:01:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm a big I'm a big fan of cold opens. And we do it with becoming a best ball bro. Rich Ryan and I uh will just talk about some random thing to open up the show and have like sometimes like a one liner or whatever, and like, I mean it's gotten to the point now like we're ten upisodes into becoming a best ball bro. Within the series, we just talked about pooping ourselves the last the last episode, so we've we've gotten from you know, talking pretty high level generic stuff to very detailed things about our lives, just through the cold open. I think it's a it's a way to really get intimate with the audience.

00:02:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, about four or five episodes ago, we started our show off with me belching into the microphone and saying, oh, that's a spin drift is going down a little weird, and they get fun. Man.

00:02:28
Speaker 1: You know, I was thinking because because obviously this will be on YouTube for folks to watch. This isn't the first time you've been on my YouTube channel, because a couple of weeks ago, I was doing a live stream Best Ball Mania draft and you were in the same draft as me. I believe you were in the back end of the of the first round, and you ended up getting AJ Brown. I think maybe in that draft, I think it was look, look, we do a lot of bestball. How deep are you in these Best ball streets?

00:02:53
Speaker 3: This year? I've got a little over three hundred done total, seventy seven done in BBM, so a little over half through that. The one thing I do remember about that draft is that I drafted a naked CJ. Stroud, which I don't normally do. Yes, that's right, and he's a guy that I don't have a lot of exposure to, but he felt like almost two rounds below ADP and I guess it wasn't like completely naked. I don't know what you'd call this, like maybe a scantily clad c J. Stroud, because I did have Joe mix it, so I got a little bit there, but then I had to end up. I got sniped on Dalton Schultz, so I went with the very rare CJ. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Noah Brown Stack, which is a lot of fun.

00:03:29
Speaker 1: Just you just need need those wide receivers to not be playing in week fifteen through seventeen. You'll be good to go and we'll see what the backup situation ends up looking like and how it comes to fruition. But yeah, I mean like I'm in, I'm on number I think eighty four eighty five, so we're pacing around the same.

00:03:47
Speaker 2: Are you planning on max entering BBM?

00:03:49
Speaker 3: I am, yeah, And I've done a little bit more every year. Like my first year playing beast ball, I did a handful of BBM drafts. Year two I did like twenty five. Last year I did eighty something, And then this is gonna be my first year actually entering, so hoping for some good results there.

00:04:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, man, yeah, I feel that well.

00:04:04
Speaker 1: Speaking of you as an analyst as a drafter, I always ask this question to open up perspectives, or at least I frequently do.

00:04:13
Speaker 2: How would you describe yourself as an analyst? Like what's your.

00:04:16
Speaker 1: Process look like? Do you lean into the analytics a whole lot? I mean I kind of know the answer. We've done plenty of shows together and we've talked to each other plenty, But are you, like, how would you Dave describe yourself?

00:04:28
Speaker 3: That's a good question, and I'll be a little vulnerable here because that's a big insecurity I have. You know, I feel like a lot of people in the industry are like a former scout somebody who really knows how to study film. And then you've got other guys who like yourself, like you're a data analyst and you can pour through these huge sets of numbers and come to some conclusions there. I don't really find myself on either end of that spectrum. But what I've tried to do is just learn more every single year, Like I constantly try to, you know, talk with guys like you talk with guys like Matt Waldman talk with guys like Graham Barfield. That helped me just kind of expand my knowledge of the game a little bit. So I've always considered myself to have a pretty deep understanding of just the NFL in general, and I think that's kind of where my edge comes from, you know, understanding schemes and coaching tendencies and trying to predict where usage is going to go. So when I first got into the industry, and I've been playing fantasy football for a long time, I've been playing for about twenty five years, started creating content back in twenty seventeen, and I used to be a hardlined, like film guy like that was all I cared about was watching the games. And I still watch all of the games, and that's where my process starts. But over the years, I've become much more open to using numbers. And I don't have a numbers first approach, but a lot of times when I have a hunch from watching games, I will go to the numbers, and the numbers either prove what I believe to be true or a lot of times it disproves, you know, I'll have a hunch and then I look at the numbers and say, well, I'm totally wrong there. You know, Like an example, Cooper Cup last year. I watched him and I thought, well, Cooper Cup is washed. I don't want anything to do with him. Then I start digging into the numbers and I say, wait, wait, wait, you look at the games that he was healthy. He was actually still Cooper Cup, even with Pookinakoua there, and then I kind of have to change my stance a little bit. So I always start by watching the games like Monday, Tuesday, Wednesdays. That's what I'm doing in season, and then after I kind of confirm how I feel about something, then I hope that the numbers are going to back it up.

00:06:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, makes a lot of sense. Did you play football or anything or like where where did the love for the game come from for you?

00:06:21
Speaker 3: I played through high school, but I was terrible. I was not a good football player. I was a little undersize. My main sport was volleyball. As a lefty, you know, I was able to play that right side front row, and that's where I excelled in sports. So I played a little bit. But I started playing fantasy football when I was really really young, and I'm talking like, you know, pre internet days. I'd be sitting in the living room with my dad. He was the commissioner of his league, and I'd be helping him. In the mornings, He'd be getting calls from his friends with their Sunday morning lineups. And that's when I got into it and I really wanted to play. In the first year I played was in two thousand. We had just moved from or he had just moved from paper you playing online and played in the Yahoo league when I was ten years old and I was hooked. And then I was in high school a few years later, you know, started a league with my buddies. It's still going to this day. So I've just always been a big football fan, you know, being from Chicago, football is just kind of a part of our DNA there. My grandpa tells the story all the time. But when he handed my mom over on the morning of her wedding, he looked my dad in the eyes and said, remember football's are for Sunday. I mean, it's something I don't really have a choice in. Football has always been a part of what we do.

00:07:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I feel that.

00:07:30
Speaker 1: I mean, I grew up in Pittsburgh, it's the same deal in Pittsburgh, where it's just a part of who you are and how you were raised. I mean to the point where I mean, I know that people are gonna think this is crazy because I haven't really been as like you know, like I podcasts and stuff. I'm not sitting here being like super pro Steelers or like Raw Raw about the Steelers. And I'm not really the same kind of fan that I used to be per se, but I still have like, like the symbolism of what the Terrible Too is is is not just about football, person say, but it's also about the city of Pittsburgh. And you know, I live in Charlotte now. My daughter was born in Charlotte. But when she was born, and there's a picture I believe on Twitter when she was born almost six years ago to the day, but uh, there's a picture of her, you knows, as a new born in the hospital, and I draped the Terrible towel over her. You know, there's like a it's like a christening almost of of you are now part of not just Steeler Nation, but you have that that Pittsburgh blood in you. You know, it's just it's just it's just the way that it is in a lot of those Midwestern cities.

00:08:30
Speaker 3: Man.

00:08:31
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a it's a very very important part of the DNA of those cities.

00:08:34
Speaker 3: And conversely, you kind of see why, like Los Angeles struggles to get big fan bases and you know, Florida struggles with that. I think there's something to be like being in the Midwest, being in the Northeast, there's nothing else to do in winter, Like you just sit around. It's freezing, Like you go outside, it hurts your skin. So you're going to sit inside and you're gonna watch football all winter.

00:08:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, exactly.

00:08:54
Speaker 1: And the and then that that's when you get you know, people in Buffalo putting themselves through tables and such because there's nothing else to do but to get drunk and watch them football. Which nothing wrong with that. I'm not talking down on that. It's just that's the truth about you know, the weather and the climate in these areas. So like you, like I said, you've done a lot of Best Ball drafts. You know, you're uh, you know, seventy seven players you know, into the almost into the eighties with Best Ball Mania. You know, you've drafted hundreds of teams at this point. But we're at a point in time where July is ending, and we know when July ends and August begins, we start to get a lot of you know, more casual players and season long players and managed season long players.

00:09:33
Speaker 2: I say season long, I mean I think that we've sort of, you know, grouped these two.

00:09:38
Speaker 1: You know, it's it's it's best ball as a thing, even though it is technically kind of season long because it's only the one year that we're looking at, but season long, I'm referring to managed leagues that we're actually setting lineups, playing the waiver wire, the traditional fantasy football you know, set up right, I think that we're going to see some crazy, crazy takes potentially, and some crazy easy analysis and all of the above because of what Underdog's ADP looks like and what the strategy of Underdog best ball drafts look like versus what we might see in our home leagues and in these season long managed leagues. So my question to you is, how do our brains need to shift as we move from all this best ball content, this best ball way of thinking, and which we still will be thinking that way throughout August, to be clear, but as we get into more of these managed season long leagues, how should our brain shift and what do you think are going to be the biggest differences from one setup and one format to the next.

00:10:36
Speaker 3: Well, you're probably not gonna see twenty wide receivers going in the first two rounds of your home run. I mean this wide receiver avalanches people have been calling it. I think that's going to be pretty specific to best Ball. You know, if you took Best Ball adp right now and like plug that into sleeper and a bunch of casual drafters started drafting, you'd see running backs going way, way earlier. And I think we're even going to see that shift in Best Ball as more casual players start plugging in, and you're going to see that a little bit. So running backs are going to go earlier. Quarterbacks and tight ends are of course going to go later.

00:11:05
Speaker 2: But I think the.

00:11:05
Speaker 3: Biggest thing too is looking at some of the players that have very wide ranges of outcomes, I'd expect them to go a little bit later in your home leagues. Like right now, Marvin Harrison at the one two turn, I don't think that's going to be happening in your home league. But when you're playing in a pool with six hundred and seventy thousand plus people. You need to swing for that high end range of outcomes. So Devon h Chan, Drake London, Jayden Reid, Anthony Richardson. These guys that are getting steamed up right now in best Ball probably are going to be a little bit more affordable in your home leagues because you're playing against a pool of eleven people as opposed to sixty, six hundred and seventy thousand. I also think some of these boring players are a little bit you know, more desirable in managed leagues. You know, there's some guys that project for workload that you probably aren't crazy about in best Ball, but I think they serve a purpose in a smaller field. You know, Zamir White, Ramadre Stevenson, Najie Harris, Devin Singletary. These guys aren't going to give you, you know, like thirty point weeks, but they do project to give you a reliable floor, and I think that that's somewhat useful. And then, of course, because you also have waivers to fall back on, I'm kind of looking at these guys as potential placeholders. You know, I probably don't want to be starting Devin Singletary in week fourteen or week fifteen of my home league. But if I can draft him and then pick up somebody off of waivers and kind of use him as a placeholder, I think that that serves a purpose. You don't get that same benefit. So I think one, you know, the guys with the wide range of outcomes are going to go a little bit later. And two, I think in home leagues, I'm more willing to draft those boring RB twos and RB threes that I find myself overlooking in Best Ball.

00:12:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's that's definitely right, and it makes a lot of sense. I have a theory that I haven't necessarily thrown out there totally, but I've obviously talked about like the running back dead zone plenty and all that kind of stuff, And I wonder, and I'd love to hear.

00:12:53
Speaker 2: Your thoughts on this.

00:12:54
Speaker 1: What if underdog ADP And I say this as someone who gets criticized sometimes from patrons, et cetera for having two wide receiver heavy rankings. Right, I do rankings for one quarterback, two running back, three wide receiver, one flex, one tight end, and that's gonna you know, affect the way that I draft wide receivers, are gonna push them a little bit higher, and then if you only need two wide receivers that you're starting, you push them down a little bit, et cetera, et cetera. But I have a theory that what if Underdog's ADP is just right? Like, what if Underdog's ADP is actually the way that people should be drafting. But it's just that when you then layer that on top of a home league or you know, a managed season long league, you end up seeing these running backs going earlier, you know, to your point, like Rashad White is gonna go from you can get Rashad White at the end of the sixth round and Best Ball drafts pretty frequently, right, Rashad White will be a third round pick in your home league. Right, But what if the way that we're valuing Rashad White and on Underdog and in Best Ball is actually the way that we should be valuing Rashad White in.

00:13:57
Speaker 2: Our season long leagues.

00:13:58
Speaker 1: Like if I look at my rank and I compare my rankings to what's going to go on in home leagues, and then my rankings to Underdog, Right, so I take my redraft rankings, and I run them through a formula and they get altered for Underdog specifically, and then I post that CSVS that people can upload them themselves. But that's based on you know, Okay, we got to bump up wide receiver. You know, you got to make sure that we're making all these changes.

00:14:22
Speaker 2: But I almost have thought. I haven't almost thought.

00:14:25
Speaker 1: I have thought about what if you just took Underdog's ADP to your home league draft, Like, do do you think that's viable in some instances? Or do you think that you would walk away from that draft without any running backs and you would not really know what to do with that position and it would be way way too wide receiver heavy.

00:14:44
Speaker 3: I think that would be it. I think that if you drafted off of Underdog ADP in a home sleeper league, you're gonna end up not taking your first running back until like the tenth or twelfth round. Yeah, And I think that's kind of the fear there, So you have to play ADP to some extent. Now, Fredo Brown, we just had this discussion on our show a couple of days ago. I don't look at ADP as kind of a guiding factor for where I want to draft players, but it does help you kind of get an idea of where your league mates are going to be drafting players, and I think you have to play that somewhat. That being said, when we start seeing these guys move up like Rashad White at a third round pick, there's no chance I'm clicking that button right. Derrick Henry probably is going to follow like the one to two turn in home leagues. And as you know, I think Derrick Henry is pretty reasonably priced right now an underdog, but if he's going at the one two turn, I'm completely out on that price. So I think that naturally, by doing all of these underdog drafts, when you do plug into your home leagues, you're almost assuredly going to end up taking a zero wider or a zero running back approach because of the sticker shock on the running back ADPs. So I don't know if you can say that like you can draft one off of underdog ADP, because like I said, you're probably not ending up with a running back until at least the tenth round or so. I think you have to reach for at least one or two running backs early, so you're not playing too far behind at that position. But I think that when I compare underdog ADP to will a lot of other platform ADPs, I think where they do have it right is in the positional rankings, and it's crazy to me. And I'm not going to call out any format specifically, but I've looked on some platforms where like Hollywood, Brown is going as like the wide receiver forty two, Like that is crazy to me, Like he should be going much higher than that. So I think the way you can do is kind of look at the positional rankings on an underdog is a good indicator of where people should be going, but once you start blending positions together then it gets really murky.

00:16:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, one hundred percent.

00:16:26
Speaker 1: I honestly think that you could find great, great values by just looking even at consensus rankings on like a Fantasy pros or something and comparing those positional rankings to underdog and seeing the differences, and honestly, the biggest delta the biggest because in my draft guide, the way that I find values is I just use Fantasy pros expert consensus so that I can say this is what your league is probably drafting off of. So here's who I'm higher and lower on And you know, I'm not putting my rankings on there, but you know I can, I can at least kind of tell people, you know, where I'm higher or lower on guys. I can tell you definitively the position or the types of players that will rank a lot higher on underdog in my rankings. And I'm assuming in your rankings too, because yours will be influenced by to some degree by all the best ball drafts that you've been doing.

00:17:13
Speaker 2: It's with rookies. Rookies get get pushed up.

00:17:16
Speaker 1: Way higher, and rightfully so all of the research that I've done has suggested that rookies and redraft are always massively undervalued, like every single year, even the early round guys. And then but people get get fixated on the Bejon Robinson of last year and these guys who don't necessarily pan out to the degree in which we thought that they would pan out. But man, every single year, it's not just the late round guys. And what's so interesting is that the market dynamics, you see, none of these rookies get drafted as high as they should up until like the double digit rounds, and then once the double digit rounds hit. That's when we start to see so many rookie wide receivers fly off the board and so many rookie running backs fly off the board, And it just shows you that the rooms are scared. They're scared to draft the uncertainty. But that seems to be the place that's a common theme throughout all my draft guides is lean into that variance, Lean into that uncertainty, because man, if a dude is getting drafted in the fifth round of a season long league and he's a rookie, he's probably pretty freaking good.

00:18:12
Speaker 2: At football because he hasn't even stepp foot on a football field yet.

00:18:15
Speaker 3: But do you think we've gone a little bit too far? And sorry, just like completely flip the script and ask you a question, But do you think we've gone too far with like Marvin Harrison where he's going, you know a lot of times he's going off the board in the first round. Or Malik Neighbors very good talent, but you know, quarterback concerns, offensive surrounding concerns going in round two and three. I agree with you in years past, you know, like you know, we're getting just a couple of years ago, Garrett Wilson was going in like round four or five of our dog drafts, and now you were looking at guys who are similar prospects going in rounds one and two. Do you think there's still value to be had there with those rookies or have we maybe gone a little bit too far?

00:18:48
Speaker 2: I think you could argue for sure that we've gone too far.

00:18:50
Speaker 1: But on the flip side, I think that you have to look at the market right now and what the positions look like right now, and what the position looks like a wide receiver in particular, so you know it's gonna be a wide receiver heavy draft right over an underdog like you know what's gonna happen, and you have to force it to some degree as a result of that, because if you just go three or four straight running backs to start your draft, you know, sure anything can work out, but you're you're probably gonna be hurting a wide receiver. You better draft ten wide receivers on your team, right And so because you know it's got to be wide receiver heavy, you know you're gonna go wide receiver. Now if you look at what's going on in that second round, to me, there's just a lot of variability anyway, with those wide receivers in that range. You know, like I like a Chris Olave, sure, but I understand the direction where it could go south. I love Jalen Waddell, sure, but I understand why maybe the ceiling wouldn't be there. Or I love you know, a a A Drake London. Let's say, uh, I don't necessarily love any of these. I'm just giving you examples, but but you can you can see the downside for all of those players. And so I think the reason why it's okay to get a Harrison or a Neighbors is simply because of what the rest of that draft and what your alternatives kind of look like in those ranges. I actually I think that, you know, I said this from this like earlier this offseason, especially when when.

00:20:04
Speaker 2: Neighbors was like a firm fourth rounder, you know, like.

00:20:07
Speaker 3: Like one of the easiest picks and drafts right right.

00:20:09
Speaker 1: It was so easy because the opportunity costs was totally different. I do think that now he's probably just properly priced on Underdog. I think that he's if you look at where he goes on Underdog though, and I'm talking even positional ranks versus where he's ranked by other analysts and other platforms and such. He will be a screaming value whenever you overlay those two ranking sheets. And I think that's the the the the big difference, and the big key is that I'd say that finally, you know, I haven't played as much volume as I am this year on Underdog, But you know, I've obviously played in the past plenty. I've drafted over one hundred teams each year and stuff, and last year I think it was at like two fifty or so. But you know, this year is like, Okay, I'm gonna be over the five hundred mark pretty comfortably and so so. But but so I'm much more keen in what's going on and understanding what's going on. But I would say that in the past, you know, every year, it seems like drafters have gotten on Underdog, have gotten more okay with drafting rookies earlier and earlier, and this year, I just I think they just got it right. Like I think that where the rookies are going is it's generally right. Like I don't have necessarily like crazy, crazy, crazy exposure to any of the rookie wide receivers, but I also have exposure to the rookie wide receivers tells me that they're probably being picked up in the right spots in general on that particular platform.

00:21:28
Speaker 3: And you need to because like Marvin Harrison, if the stars aligned, could be a top three receiver. That's what upside is there. And you know, back to like the first question you ask, kind of like how do you see yourself as an analyst? When I first started, I felt like I needed a take on every single player, like every single player needed to be either overvalued or undervalued. And I was writing an article two offseasons ago, and I was writing an article on Kyle Pitts, who was one of the most polarizing players in fantasy that offseason, and I was trying so hard to come to a definitive take that he's either overvalued or undervalued. And I went to Joe Bryant and I said, I can't come up with a take. I think the market is right, like the where he's getting drafted. It's tight end six, it's got the upside and it's got the downside, and it's all kind of right. I think the market is just right here. And Joe said well, then write that article say that the market is right on Kyle Fitts. There's nothing wrong with that, And I think that that is something that a lot of people struggle with early on, is just saying, like, this guy's accurately priced. You don't have to say every player is either overvalued or undervalued.

00:22:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually think that most players are probably properly valued.

00:22:27
Speaker 2: Like like it's you know, going into a season.

00:22:28
Speaker 1: Obviously we'll look at after the season and say, wow, we're morons, but you know, entering the season, like, I don't need to take strong stances.

00:22:36
Speaker 2: That's that's part of Like people.

00:22:37
Speaker 1: Definitely are turned off by it from my perspective and like how I handle things, But I think it's pretty natural to say, hey, look, the market's getting this right. I'm gonna give you the pros and the cons. Sure you can make your decision on your own, because that's what this is all about. But I don't necessarily have a strong take, Like I don't have a Dalton Kincaid. I have no strong take on Dalton Kincaid, Like I just he's a great.

00:22:59
Speaker 3: Where he's at.

00:23:00
Speaker 1: There's upside outside, Yeah, yeah, Like I can see the like I see it differently with a guy like Trey McBride versus the dalton Kin Kate. If you're gonna if you're gonna say, hey, who do you like more between these guys than I can give you an answer. But if you're saying, you know, is dalton kin k properly valued? Shore like I don't. I don't need to have a strong opinion on every single guy, I think that's a normal rational reaction. Is definitely, you know, to your point, it's a really really important thing I think for everyone in the fantasy industry to come to a conclusion of and realize, because you know, it's why we see Twitter be the way that it is, with just the takes flying all over the place all the time.

00:23:34
Speaker 3: You know, Twitter is very much a necessary evil. You know, it's fun to throw the takes out there, but yeah, when you're on a show talking about these things, you could be much more nuanced. And that's something I try to do a lot with these polarizing players, is like, here's the upside case, here's the downside case. Sometimes I'm just right in the middle and sometimes I lean a little bit in either direction. But I think that it's kind of important in our job to just give as much information as possible to the audience and help them come to an edge. Hated Joyce.

00:24:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly so in all of these Best Ball drafts. But you know, I'm asking us more so from a season long standpoint. But I do think in Best Ball obviously there's gonna be some overlap with this answer. Is there a draft slot this year that you think is best? Because this is a question I get constantly all the time. Is there like a range that you want to be in in a snake draft or do.

00:24:23
Speaker 2: You just not care?

00:24:24
Speaker 3: So my redraft rankings are, my season long rankings are a little bit different than Best Ball. Like in Best Ball, I have to you know, with the amount of drafts that we're doing. When you're doing hundreds and hundreds of drafts, you don't want to take really strong stances in the early rounds because you know, God forbid you take a strong stance on Amano Saint Brown, he gets hurt Week one, and then you've just nuked your portfolio. So I think that you kind of need to let the players just kind of follo to you in the early rounds. But in season long, where I'm not doing quite as many drafts, So that's where I'm okay switching out my rankings a little bit. So my rankings are gonna differ a little bit from what you're seeing on Underdog. But for me, my top five is pretty clear cut. Where I've got Chrisian McCaffrey, ceedeelamb Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase, and Amanra Saint Brown, and I want one of those top five picks. One. I think that those guys are just a tier above the next guys. Now, I'm okay if I get the next tier, which I have, you know, four guys, AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, Briis Hall, Bjehon Robinson. I think those guys are very similar. But the big issue for me, it's not even so much what you're getting in round one, it's what you're getting in the next two rounds. Like when I look at round two, it is so flat. We've already talked about a lot of these guys, the names that we threw out there, you know, Chris Olave and Drake London. I think they're fine picks where they're going, But I don't see a huge difference between Chris Alave, Deebo, Samuel Drake London, Devonte Adams, and the guys you're getting at the end of round two, where you're getting Jalen Waddel, Brandon Ayuk, Mike Evans, they all feel like similar players. So you know what, usually if you're picking at the end of round one, you're getting a better player in round two, and I just don't see that happening this year. But then even once you get deeper into the draft in round three, I think there's a pretty big fall off about halfway through the third round. Yeah, you know, if you're pick early in round three, you're getting Cooper Cup or if you want to get Derek Henry or DK Metcalf, you can do that. When you get to the end of round three, you're looking at some pretty shaky players there, and that's when you start maybe reaching for Sam Laporta or Josh Allen or something like that. So not only if you're picking early in round one, you're one getting a higher tier of players in round one. Two. I think you're getting similar players in round two than the guys that are drafting late in round one, and then three, I think there's a pretty big tier fall off in the middle of round three. So I absolutely wont an early pick this year. But that's what we said last year too, and the best pick you could have had to start your draft was Ceedee Lamb and a monor Saint Brown. So who knows, maybe we can be proved wrong this year too.

00:26:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, though, I mean, anytime I get the one to twelve in a draft, I hate it so much because again because at least like at the one ten, And again this is more of a best ball thing because we haven't done many season long drafts and manage the league drafts yet. But you know, if you get like the one ten or something like that, sometimes in the third round, you'll get a falling value right like sometimes times like a random play maybe maybe I'm a league neighbors or something will fall to that range and then you feel good or like a DK Metcalf whatever. But when you're but it rarely rarely happens at the turn, and then you're forcing you know players, and you're drafting players, and you're and you're in you're forcing things too because you're at the turn and and you're trying to read the rest of the board a little bit. It's just a really difficult place to be and you know, I've looked at at season long ADP and I think it's relatively the same. I would say, though, you know, if you're in a league that is going to be running back heavy and such, you know you might be more okay at the turn and in the in the late first just because you know those running backs are going to put some of those wide receiver values down. And like we talked about earlier, we're probably not going to take Rashad White in the third round. Other other folks in your league will maybe take a Rashad White and Josh Jacobs and uh Joe Mixon, and then that's going to.

00:27:52
Speaker 2: Force these model at the end of the right that, yeah.

00:27:58
Speaker 1: Exactly exactly. So I do think it'll be a little bit dependent on that. But if your drafts are gonna be fairly sharp, which I think is sharp, you know my opinion of what's being of what's sharp. You know, if that's the case, then that back half of the first is gonna be probably pretty rough for teams this year.

00:28:15
Speaker 3: You know, it's just such a cliche, but like you need to know the ADP of the platform you're drafting on, and like we've got a football guys, dot Com slash ADP. We kind of blend ADP from a bunch of different sites together. But like I'm looking right now, and the way guys are valued differently on different platforms is crazy. Like Nico Collins right now, if you look on Drafters, which is a best ball platform, he's going sixteenth overall, and then you look on MFL and he's going fortieth overall. So like that's a huge difference. Like are you taking him at the top of round two or you're taking him in the middle of round four. You know, it's really important to know how the ADP looks. Like I said, you're gonna draft off with the rankings that you have, whether they're from you or from me, or from football guys or fantasy pros wherever you get your rankings from. But ADP does help you kind of get an idea of where your league mates are gonna be drafting players. So, like you might want to take Nico Collins at the top of round two, but if you're drafting on MFL, you know you could probably wait until round three and he'll still be there.

00:29:13
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:29:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I said this in my Draft guy, But the players who you think you need are not always the players that you think you need. So if you do miss out on Nico Collins in that instance and you force it a little bit, it's not the end of the world.

00:29:23
Speaker 2: There's other alternatives.

00:29:24
Speaker 1: You don't know if he's going to have a monster season or not, so it's important to keep that in mind as well.

00:29:30
Speaker 3: Well.

00:29:30
Speaker 1: Let let's let's talk about Nico a little bit. Let's talk about the wide receiving group in Houston. We have these offenses. Chicago's won where you got Keenan, Allen Romadunze and Dj Moore. Houston obviously Nico Collins, Stefan Diggs, Tank Dell, and then Green Bay too. You could even say with just this hodgepodge of you know, they're not as elite. Yeah, yeah, they're not as elite as what you're seeing in Chicago and Houston. But you know, you can make a case for a lot of the wide receivers in Green Bay at least having the ceiling and having the potential to be, you know, really good wide receivers in the league. So my question to you is, if you're looking at a managed season long league, are you going to be going after some of these wide receivers on these teams, or are you saving your exposure to those guys to only Best Ball drafts because you know that you know, if they do have a down week, which is possible, there could be just a lot of variation, there's someone else that can step in and kind of fill that role.

00:30:24
Speaker 3: So you know, I talked about it at the top of the show. I said, like, one of the things that I think I'm pretty good at predicting is kind of you know, coaching tendencies and where the ball is going to go and usage for players and stuff like that. So I try to look at all of these situations independently and just recently did a series with Jeff Bell where we dug deep into every single team depth chart and kind of predicting where we expect the usage to go, and how we expect a base personnel to look like and things like that. So I think each of these teams I'm looking at through a very different lens. Like with Chicago, Dj Moore is really the only guy I'm interested in here, and I understand like Keenan Allen coming off the big season, Romadoonza is a great prospect. But the concerning thing here is you look at Shane Waldron, He's not a guy that has typically deployed a lot of three wide receiver sets. And I don't know if it's gonna be Keenan Allen or romadoons a that's on the field during the or on the bench during these two wide receiver sets. But I do know with you know, I don't want to say certainty, but I don't expect DJ Moore to come off the field. So he's the guy that I'm willing to draft just knowing that he's probably gonna have a one hundred percent route participation. He's not going anywhere. And we've also seen, you know, during his time, whether it was last year with Justin Fields or during his time in Carolina, he's pretty much quarterback proof. Houston is one where I think all of these guys are just a little bit too expensive. I'm okay drafting Nico Collins at cost, but the prices of all these guys just outright scare me a little bit with how high that they're going. Diggs is the guy that I have almost no interest in, you know, an aging receiver going to a new team. Down trending production over the last couple of years Nico is the guy that I'm okay paying up for, But that's one that I'm just kind of fading all around. And I know it's crazy because Houston's to be a great offense, but it scares me not knowing where those targets are going to be distributed. Green Bay is the one that I think is the most interesting. And JJ, we've done shows in the past. I used to have you on the launch pad every offseason and we would talk about these ambiguous wide receiver rooms and ambiguous running back rooms and try to talk about, you know, who we liked best at costs And you said something that stuck with me where you said, with these ambiguous situations, I think the market typically gets it right. I think the market's wrong on Green Bay. And that's the one that I just keep going back to. Jayden Reid last year was a fifty to sixty percent snap player. You know, he was only playing out of the slot in three wide receiver sets. Now we're drafting him to be the wide receiver one and I think this is just a classic case of getting enamored by the young guy. We've got some of the touchdown cologne as well from his rookie season. So Jayden Reid has been a pretty hard fade for me at his cost, and I find myself liking Watson. And then Dubbs is a guy that I'm not crazy about, but I think he's going to be on the field a lot. You know, he's just a guy who does the thing that don't show up on player profile or and don't show up in the stat sheet. But he's a good blocker, and he can move the chains, and he's sure handed, and he might not pull an elite target chair. He might not have the flashy efficiency metrics, but he's a good football player and that matters. It's a lot like elm Lazard's role over the last couple of years in Green Bay. Wasn't flashy, didn't put up a ton of stats, but he was almost always on the field. So that's kind of where I'm concerned. Is Reid was the exciting guy as a rookie and people are drafting him as the wide receiver one, but I don't know if he's got the skill set to be an outside receiver and play on two wide receiver sets.

00:33:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's super valid.

00:33:35
Speaker 1: My one thing too, with these groups is I do think that in managed season long leagues, I'm gonna be less inclined to grab one of them and be enthusiastic about grabbing one of them, because I do think that, you know, there is going to be a volatility factor. You know, maybe their points per game look okay by the end of the year, but you know, I don't know if their points per game is going to necessarily match where they're getting drafted, you know, by by season's end. And the only way that they would then see an increase in points per game or match what we need from their ADP in terms of points per game would be via an injury, right like Jayden Reid. But but I will say now now flipping to best Ball, I'm I'm okay in going that direction then in best ball, because in best Ball, you obviously are going to capture their spiked weeks, right like if they have a monster game, which I do think that we'll see a roller coaster as long as all these guys are healthy. Of you know, DJ Moore going off probably more frequently than Keenan Allen, probably more frequently.

00:34:31
Speaker 2: Than Romadoon day.

00:34:32
Speaker 1: But each of them might have their own day, right, their own week where they have a two touchdown game and they have you know, one hundred and twenty yards and seven catches or something, and when they don't do that, you have the backup of you know, seven other wide receivers potentially getting into your starting lineup and giving you that production. And then on top of that, you know, you obviously have the injury upside, which the injury upside exists in both season long and in best ball, but it's just you know, a different beast whenever you're talking best ball, just because you know that the ceiling outcomes are are out of control there and you're not having to worry about the floor outcomes nearly as much.

00:35:08
Speaker 2: So I do agree.

00:35:09
Speaker 1: I think the Green Bay situation is one that is very very difficult to discern as you're kind of as you're kind of talking about here with Romeo Dobbs, especially like in spreadsheets in particular, I'd say that of the four wide receivers that we're talking about, Romeo Dobbs is probably the least attractive one, right like like like he saw a lot of good red zone work, you know, scoring touchdowns down the stretch, especially in Jordan. Love started coming on board and doing well but you know, from a yards per run standpoint, you had two rookies in and doan Tavian Wicks and Jayden Reed get over that two point zero mark, which is not an easy thing to do for a rookie wide receiver. Christian Watson obviously has that that crazy week in week out upside where there might be some volatility, but he at least has that. Romeo Dobbs is like, all right, yeah, like he's a solid player. I just don't know how special the dude is, right, But again, we're doing two things here, man. We're trying to evaluate these players ourselves, and we're trying to evaluate how the team might be thinking about these guys. Exactly in your opinion, you're saying you think the team likes Romeo Dobson.

00:36:10
Speaker 2: Let me let me just ask you this.

00:36:12
Speaker 1: Do you see there just being a four man rotation without an injury in Green Bay?

00:36:16
Speaker 3: It could be and I think you know, we joked about the s on the show months ago, but Melton is another guy who saw his role rowing towards the end of the season, we might see a five man rotation. And we haven't even mentioned Luke Musgrave and Tucker Craft, who are both good pass catchers as well. I mean, this is one of those situations where I think the smart thing is just to fade Jayden Reed who's the most expensive, and throw darts on the cheaper guys. And I'm throwing darts at the tight ends. I'm throwing darts at Don Tavian Wicks. It was much nicer drafting Don Davian Wicks as a seventeenth round player before everybody got in on Don Davin Wicks. And I think you might be partially to blame for that. JJ. You know, you've really got him steamed up there. But I think that's the approach that I want to take with Green Bay. I want to invest in this offense, but I don't want to pay a fourth round pick to invest in this passing offense. I'd rather throw darts later. Knowing that all of these guys are going to have big spike weeks, and I think that you're right that we could see a pretty steady rotation here. Like I don't think that they're going to say, wow, Don Tavine Wicks was great as a rookie, but you know he's going to need an injury to get on the field. I think We're going to see him coming in for Romeo Dobbs. We're going to see him coming in for Christian Watson. We know Lafleur is a very smart coach that likes to get his players on the field and keep them fresh. So you know we're going to see Musgrave lining up out of the slot. We're going to see a lot of creative usage here. I think all of these guys are going to be involved. I just want cheap parts of the offense, especially in best Ball, where I don't have to worry about plugging them into my lineup.

00:37:41
Speaker 1: That's one last question about green Bay cost aside. Who do you think is the most talented, could be an alpha, could emerge and just be that dude in that offense.

00:37:52
Speaker 3: That's a tough question, and I think it's Christian Watson. And I had some concerns about Christian Watson coming into the league. You know, he played at a small school, didn't have a ton of production. You know, was a pretty raw player coming into the league. And I think that he's limited in what he can do. You know, he's going to catch balls near the red zone, and he's going to catch deep passes, and he can't do much outside of that, but especially from fantasy, like that's what we want to see, Like he's going to score touchdowns and he's going to have big plays. So I think if we're asking like who is the best all around wide receiver, it might actually be Jaden Reid just with what he can do after the catch. But I worry about his ability to play outside. And I think that's kind of concern with Jayden Reid is that he might be stuck primarily in a slot role. So I think the most alluring for fantasy is Christian Watson because of the big playoff side, But I think the best all around football player actually is Jayden Reid.

00:38:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair.

00:38:49
Speaker 1: Part of the reason why Jayden Reid in best ball on underdog is easier to pass on is because there are tight ends that will often fall into that range, you know, whether it is a Trey McBride or Mark Andrews. You know, McBride usually goes a little bit earlier, but sometimes he falls. Mark Andrews will fall often. You know, Dalton Kinkaid, the guy that we talked about earlier. My question to you is do you think that tight ends right now are miss priced at the top, and are there any favorites that you're getting among those tight ends.

00:39:17
Speaker 3: I try to leave every single draft with a top eight tight end and the top eight, you know, for people who aren't aware, Kelsey, Andrews, Laporta, Kinkaid, Pitts, Kittle, McBride, Ingram. I want one of those eight guys because all of those guys have you know, a tight end one finish in the range of outcomes, like they can all finish as the overall tight end one. And the way that I listed them is how I have them ranked. I think we've probably seen the ceiling for Ingram, you know, tight end two overall last year. But all of these guys are guys that I want. After you get past that, you're throwing darts at some guys. And we see it every year where guys drafted outside of the top ten finish inside the top five. And it's probably gonna happen this year. But there's just been such a huge change in the tight end landscape. Used to be that you'd reach for Kelsey because he would give you a massive positional advantage. Well, then Mark Andrews showed up on the scene, and then TJ. Hockinson was traded to Minnesota and he broke out, and then Evan Ingram went to Jacksonville and broke out. Then we got this influx of young guys with Laporta and King Kid and McBride, and now all of a sudden, Kyle Pitts has a quarterback. And now I don't think it's that you're drafting these guys for a positional advantage, but I think that if you miss out on one of these top eight, you're at a huge positional disadvantage. And like, sure, maybe Noah Fan breaks out, or maybe Tyler Conklin breaks out, like we always see these guys that we don't really expect. But I think that you're getting security with these top eight guys, and if you don't have one of them, every single week, you're just playing from behind, hoping to close that gap against your opponent who probably does have one of these top eight guys.

00:40:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, and speaking of the positional advantage that you get from those players, I think that we would all push our chips in and say, the biggest advantage you're gonna get a tight end is gonna come from one of these eight players this year, right right, Like more than and if you look at history. I did this in the draft guide. If you look at history and you look at the top three, I looked at top three and then tight end four to six, and then tight end seven to nine and so on, so in.

00:41:06
Speaker 2: Groups of three.

00:41:07
Speaker 1: But if you look at those those groupings by ADP and look at how they perform versus the rest of the position, top three tight ends and then top four to six tight ends is kind of its own tier as well. But top three tight ends not only are they ranked in the top three, but they generally finish very very well versus the rest of the position does. And I even removed Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelcey from the data.

00:41:29
Speaker 2: Saw the data, Yeah, yeah, because you knew that they would skew the data.

00:41:33
Speaker 1: Even the other guys that get drafted in that range really do outperform the rest of the position by a really high rate, which makes me believe that those guys should probably be drafted a little bit higher. Now, maybe the tight end one to tight end three this year is a little bit closer to the tight end four to tight end six historically than what we've seen historically, right, because like there is this larger tier ish of players that you can look at and go and get. But yeah, I mean, like to me, and I'm not usually an early tight end guy, but you know, in your home leagues, all of their ADPs are lower than what we've seen over the last decade, Like every single tight end spot until you get to like tight end you know, round tight end seven, tight end eight, all of the ADPs are lower, and so you're getting a discount. And it's to me, it's based on this perception of you know, tight ends last year at the top were not very strong. You know Travis Kelcey, who's still Kelsey finished, Yeah, he's he's still the tight end one in points per game, and people were like, oh, yeah, he had a bad year, which based on ADP, I don't necessarily disagree, but it's so crazy that people were saying that he had this bad year despite finishing as the tight end one in points per game. And then at the same time you had you know, doncan k, Trey McBride and all these guys emerged, Jake Ferguson, all these guys were emerged from the late rounds.

00:42:50
Speaker 2: And I think that just you.

00:42:51
Speaker 1: Know, more subjectively and feel based you know, the later rounds are a little bit more difficult this year.

00:42:58
Speaker 2: Last year it was cake.

00:43:00
Speaker 3: Last year.

00:43:00
Speaker 1: You can look at my draft guide, both Laporta and Ferguson were highlighted as late round dart throws. This year, some of the late round dart throws at tight end are John hu Smith And it's like like, like, I don't think it's a bad play given the market, but I do think that there is not nearly as much upside with a John new Smith versus what we had in a Sam Laporta or a Dalkin Caid or Jake Ferguson last year. So where are you at with some of these late round tight ends? Are there any that you're going after? Because obviously if you get one early in Best Ball in particular, if you get one early, you're gonna pair them with someone later more than likely.

00:43:36
Speaker 2: So who are some of those guys?

00:43:37
Speaker 3: Well, well, a few things. First of all, you talk about how like you in the past haven't been in on early tight ends. Well, the early tight ends last year were crossing your first round pick, Like if you wanted Travis Kelce, you're using a first round pick. If you want Mark Andrews, you're using a second round pick. Now the top guys are still going in round four, so I don't even know if you can say like early round tight end because they've have been so suppressed in value. And the one last thing I'll say, you know, you talk about how flat it was at the top three at the position historically, you just look back at last year. You take out the game where Mark Andrews got injured, Travis Kelce, TJ. Hockinson and Mark Andrews averaged exactly fourteen point six PPR points per game, like they had these same exact outputs. So we've seen that historically, but we saw it, you know, just as early as last year. But for the late round guys, I am going to talk about John new Smith after we just kind of dogged John.

00:44:25
Speaker 2: New Smith a little bit.

00:44:26
Speaker 3: Let's the difference is, like the best case scenario for John new Smith is what you're getting eight nine points per game. I think the upside with John Newsmith, especially in best balls, that he could have the spike weeks, he could rip off the sixty yard touchdown and give you those you know, week winning upsides. So I like John new Smith. There another guy that I really like is Isaiah Likely? You know last year when Mark Andrews went down, you were pretty much getting like one to one production from Isaiah Likely. Now this again kind of talking about coaching tendencies and scheme changes. We didn't see it a lot last year in Baltimore. But what I want to see this, you look at the depth chart. They don't have a deep wide receiver room like it's Jay Flowers and then just a bunch of guys. And we know that Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely both have the elasticity to play in the slot or to play tight ends. And then you look back at what Todd Mounkin did when he was in Georgia. His base personnel there was a two tight end set. So this would be a change in philosophy from what we saw the Ravens doing last year. But I'm kind of a believer, and like David Njoku is a guy that I'm drafting because I'm a believer that like, when the cat's out of the bag, the cats out of the bag, and I think they saw Isaiah Likely last year could be a consistent contributor. So of course when you're drafting Isaiah Likely, I think the thesis is, well, he's got contingent upside. We're kind of drafting him as a tight end handcuff, but I think there is potentially some standalone value where he could just be a full time player even without an injury, because you look at the other receivers there and sure like we can wish cast for Shot Bateman again, but I think that we could see kind of their top four receivers being Mark Andrews, Jay Flowers for Shot Bateman, and Isaiah Likely. So he's a guy I like.

00:46:00
Speaker 2: TJ.

00:46:00
Speaker 3: Hockinson is another guy that I'm drafting, not a lot because I'm certainly scared off by the injury, but he's one of those guys where if I do miss out on one of the top eight guys, then TJ. Hockinson becomes a priority for me. He's got a lot of red flags, you know, getting up there in age, late season injury, not even that he's old, but you know, once you're over twenty five, it takes longer to heal, and then you know, of course the rookie quarterback or if it's Sam Darnold, whatever it may be, there are red flags there. But if I miss out on a top eight guy, I'm okay drafting TJ. Hockinson just because I do need the upside and he is going to likely give you more upside than anybody else. Then the last guy is Luke Musgrave. We've already talked about the Packers a little bit, but he was a good prospect. He's not a good offense, struggled with injuries as a rookie. But again, if I'm trying to buy into the Packers offense and I don't want to pay up for the premium guys, Luke Musgrave is a guy I can get late in drafts that hopefully has some upside.

00:46:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, Musgrave is someone that I called out my draft guide because he fits a lot of market trends that I look for in a tight late tight end breakout or late round tight end breakout. Where he's younger in age. He was a good prospect, but also he has a climbable depth chart. Now, as as much as we're saying Green Bay has good wide receivers, which I do think they have good wide receivers, we have to think about all these different scenarios that could go down in Green Bay, and one of them is what if all these wide receivers are like fifteen percent target share guys, or like what if Dantavian Wicks is a twelve to fifteen percent guy, Romeo Dobs a fifteen percent guy Watson and Reed or eighteen percent guys. Luke Musgrave could be a fifteen to twenty percent target share guy and that's all you need for him to be a legitimate starter. Then obviously there's the contingent upside of injury as well. So I like those picks a lot, and the Musgrave want I just had to call out because he does fit a lot of the historical market trends, but he's really there's not a ton of guys that fit those market trends this year. It is going to be a rougher late round tight end season.

00:47:55
Speaker 3: I believe are you gonna Ben Sinnet because he was another guy that I was pressing a ton, But he has just moved so high up in drafts that I find it really tough to click the button on Sinate and I want to be in on him, you know, I'm warming up. I want to be ahead of the curve, and we've seen it over the last few years where tight ends are hitting the field as rookies and producing. So I used to have like a no rookie tight end rule, and I was in on Senate, but then he just jumped a couple of rounds and now I struggled to draft him.

00:48:20
Speaker 2: So I'm not as high.

00:48:21
Speaker 1: I wasn't as high on him as a prospect as others were. Like I thought he was a really good prospect, but not this like really great prospect that some people kind of build him as, right, which is fine, Like, no one's right right now. I have no idea if I'm going to be right or wrong about that. That's just what my model was saying. But then on top of that, I don't think zach Ertz is going to necessarily go away.

00:48:40
Speaker 2: And that's that's part of my.

00:48:42
Speaker 3: Here right at Bay for a year and a half.

00:48:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, right, right, And so if zach Ertz is used, I do think that, you know, mclaurin's obviously a strong enough one to get twenty to twenty five percent of the team's targets. You know, Johan Dotson might be able to get something in that offense. Luke McCaffrey, I think is a solid slot guy who can get some work.

00:49:00
Speaker 2: And so, like you break it down in what.

00:49:02
Speaker 1: Should be at least a you know, not totally totally friendly passing offense. I don't think it's like gonna be horrific, but it's a rookie quarterback. It's a mobile quarterback. I do think they'll run with decent pace because of Cliff Kingsbury. But yeah, I mean, like I just I've really just gotten him in stacks if I'm being honest, Like I haven't like gone on my way to get Senate part of that too, I mean, his his cost has fallen a little bit, making it a little bit easier. But yeah, there was that spike immediately, especially after the draft, where he was going at like tight end eighteen, like not even far off of like Luke Muskrave, which to me, you know, a guy like Musgrave just made a lot more sense.

00:49:39
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about running back.

00:49:42
Speaker 1: This is He's gonna be one of the most polarizing players I think of this fantasy football season, if he isn't already. But Kyrien Williams, you got one side who says Blake Koram doesn't matter. Kyra Williams is gonna smash again this year. You got the other side that says Blake Korm does matter. Don't draft Kian Williams at aaight, which, by the way, in your season long leagues and your managed leagues, he's not going to go in the mid third round like you see in Best Ball. He's going to be a second round pick more than maybe even a first round pick in some So where do you.

00:50:12
Speaker 2: Stand with Kien Williams? On which side of the debate do you land?

00:50:15
Speaker 3: I'm just going to give you the most like boring politician answer possible, Like, I think that Kien Williams is perfectly valued where he is. I checked my exposure before we did this show to see and I'm at nine point two percent. So basically like exactly average on Kien Williams where he's going. If he moves into round two and manage leagues, I'm probably going to be out on him. But like I said, giving you the politician answer, I'm just going to completely spin off of Kien Williams, who I think is perfectly valued and say that I think Blake Korum is extremely undervalued, and he's a guy that I'm aggressively targeting later in drafts. And I think that there's this idea that like if you're in on Blake Korum, you must hate Kien Williams and vice versa. But I think Kien Williams is a fine value. I just think that Blake Koram is going way later than he should be, and it's because there's multi pull outs for Blake Korum. Like one, we have this idea that Sean McVay is just going to lean on one running back because he's done that historically. But what if he does just commit to a split backfield here, like Kian Williams struggled with a big workload last year, picked up multiple injuries and yeah, we've seen McVeigh has always leaned on one guy, But what if those injuries piling up do change his philosophy a little bit, and all of a sudden, Blake Korum gets the goal line work in a really good Rams offense, and then all of a sudden, Blake Corum pays off even without an injury to Kien Williams. Of course, there's the contingent upside where Karen Williams gets hurt, and then we're looking at Sean McVay leaning on Blake Krum in this coveted RB one role for the Rams. Or there's also the very unlikely outcome that Corum just steals the job. You know, he's bigger, he's younger, he's stronger, he's got the burst. He doesn't have, you know, the same injury history. You know, of course he had the knee injury, but he doesn't have these minor injuries piling up. So I think there's a lot of outs for Korum to really exceed his ADP. But with Kien Williams, you know understand why he's a polarizing player. Like the Bowl argument, he was a top two running back last year, his coach loves leaning on a running back. He got all the high value touches last year in the passing game and near the goal line. And then the bear argument, he's undersized, he's relatively unathletic, he doesn't have the draft capital, he's been hurt, and Blake Koram is there. So this is one of those where I said, like, I can present the upside and the downside and just say that I'm kind of in the middle and think that Drafters have this one right. But even though I'm drafting Kien Williams Blake Koram, regardless of who I've drafted in the early rounds works as somebody that I'm trying to fit in just about any build.

00:52:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I have a lot more quorum than Kiren.

00:52:39
Speaker 1: Because the investment and like I think, it's a totally different investment in Dynasty versus redraft. Also, right, like Dynasty is a different like you're gonna spend more to get quorum hypothetically because of age and YadA, YadA, YadA. But as a later round dart throws, he's gonna probably go even later in manage leagues and season long leagues within the position. At least, it's an easier dart throw because, like you said, there's a lot of outs. And I also want to talk about because one of my favorite things that I like to do in fantasy football is take a talking point that whether or not it's valid or not, I just want to see if it's valid, right, and ask questions to see the validity of.

00:53:17
Speaker 2: That talking point. You know.

00:53:19
Speaker 1: One of the my favorite ones was back in the day when people would say that Kyle Shanahan fed his ex receivers and it's like, okay, well, let's layer on top the personnel a little bit and see that he had Julio Jones, Andre Johnson like he had some very very good X receivers throughout his career.

00:53:34
Speaker 2: Of course he's going to feed them.

00:53:36
Speaker 1: Right, my question, or not even question, but my like the way my brain has been thinking about this, and I want to get your thoughts on it, because a lot of people would say this with Mike Tomlin right right, Mike Tomlin loves a bell cow back until he doesn't. Right Like last year, we obviously didn't see Najie Harris be the bell cow that you know we thought that he would be, or that people have historically projected to Mike Tomlin running back to be. Sean McVeigh. Yes, he's had bell cow's in the past. But but my pushback to the idea, and I'm not saying anyone's right or wrong here, I'm this is literally me just thinking out loud and how I've been thinking about this last year when Kyen Williams went down, what happened to that backfield? That backfield was a split backfield. They had Royce Freeman, Darryl Henderson, right. I mean, I think they sprinkled in Ronnie Rivers a little bit until he was hurt. But they had a split backfield without Kyen Williams last year, and so the response to that would be, well, yeah, that's because those guys aren't very good running backs and they're obviously not going to command a really really big workload. But I think that's kind of the point too, right, because what if Blake Korm is talented enough to push Kien Williams and get some of that work right, Like, Like, I don't think that that's like an unreasonable thing to think after the guy had a pretty good collegiate career, was a really solid prospect Day two pick. You know, I think if you put Blake Koram next to Kien Williams's prospects, you would probably say that Blake is the better prospect compared to Kien Williams. Right now, Kyron has last season under his belt, So we would never say that Blake Korm's a better running back than Kyen Williams. I think that's kind of irresponsible. But I do think that there's at least a little bit of you know, what if they're okay with a split backfield when they have the right competition in that backfield, you know, like last year the competition was was right, but it was bad, right, it was Royce Freeman, Darryl Henderson. This year, you know you're looking at Kien Williams and what if they say Blake Korm is good enough.

00:55:31
Speaker 2: So I don't know. I've been I've been more on the I'm out on Kyroen.

00:55:35
Speaker 1: I've gotten him randomly in Best Ball, just because I don't want to have zero exposure because that's frightening because we know the upside is there. But I do think it just makes me lean into Blake Orm a little bit more, way more than I thought I would, because Kien Williams had a good year last year, Like this isn't a situation where you know, I'm sticking to he was a mediocre prospect who got very lucky in the year that he saw a lot of volume and broke. I really think he was a good player last year, and I really think the Rams like him. But if you look at all of their actions and what they've done, Kyen Williams gets hurt.

00:56:08
Speaker 2: They know they lack depth at running back. What do they do.

00:56:11
Speaker 1: They go out in the draft and they get a dude who is probably the most Kien Williams like back in the entire draft class. This year, you know, Like, to me, a lot of it is just signaling Kyen Roys is still going to see a lot of work, But I just don't know if his workload is going to allow him to hit the ceiling that we wanted to hit. Whereas Blake Quorum to me, might be being drafted at his projection right now. And if he's being drafted at his projection, we know that can go north if there's an injury to Kien Williams.

00:56:38
Speaker 3: Right And that's why when I talked about like the multiple outs, I let off with saying, like, what if McVeigh does split this backfield up a little bit, because we know mcvay's a good coach, and good coaches are going to change their tendencies to fit their personnel. And I don't think that they, you know, accidentally drafted Blake Korum. I think it was a very intentional move for them to go out and get a guy who could shoulder the load. And Karen Williams, like you said, he was a good running back last year, and early in the season he wasn't great like his rushing yards over expectation on a per game basis for the first two months of the season was terrible, and then he just consistently got better and better each week. So I think he earned the job and he's going to get you know, first crack at the starting job. But like I said, good coaches will change their philosophies, and I think that we could see that happen here. But you know, you talk last about how there was kind of a split backfield when they didn't have Kyrien Williams last year. But what jumps out to me is in years past where we didn't see mcpay do that. You know, there was a few weeks where Malcolm Brown was getting a world worth role in Darryl Henderson for twelve weeks was averaging eighteen touches per Dame in twenty twenty one. So but I think last year is when we saw that little bit of a change in philosophy from McVeigh. So that's kind of the easiest out to picture in twenty twenty four is that McVeigh says, well, you know, I've done this in years past and it hasn't worked out well, like feeding Malcolm Brown and feeding CJ. Anderson and feeding Darryl Henderson, Like look, yeah, yeah.

00:58:03
Speaker 1: But I mean, like I mean like that the the end of the end of Todd Gurley's career went the way that it went, right, Where if you're a coach and you played I don't want to say you played a role in Todd Gurley's career ending, but if you played a role in Girly seeing the amount of work that he saw which could have led to.

00:58:20
Speaker 2: Injury, right, that might change your philosophy.

00:58:22
Speaker 1: Like I don't know part of the coaching and UH and usage stuff. I think it's really important to look at especially when it's like schematically makes sense, right, Like when it when it really matches what they do. Like if if a coach runs along a twelve personnel or like Arthur Smith, you look at his his offenses super tight end heavy offenses, right, so you generally know that there's at least a chance that something favorable could happen with Pat Fryermouth this year, right, because the offenses are tight end friendly. Right.

00:58:53
Speaker 2: But when we're talking.

00:58:54
Speaker 1: About you know, the the tendencies of like a backfield and handing the ball off, for using a guy in a certain role. When you know sample sizes, McVeigh, sample size isn't that small anymore?

00:59:06
Speaker 2: I get it.

00:59:06
Speaker 1: But in terms of like the backfield rotations that we've seen out of LA, it was the Todd Gurley era and then there was a gap for a little bit, and then it's the Kien Williams era, right, And and well.

00:59:19
Speaker 3: I mean they have last year like Zach Evans, Ronnie Rivers was terrible. They were bringing breaming off the street. So I think that exactly the workload we saw for Kien Williams last year was because they didn't have anybody else and now they clearly do.

00:59:33
Speaker 1: Right, And I think that at least, at the very least, everyone should entertain the idea that that changes Kien Williams workload, right like that, Like if if you're drafting Kien Williams as if this is not going to do much at all it was, I think that's wrong, right. I think that there you have to factor in the variance in the way that these coaches might be thinking a little bit differently about these guys. That's really what it comes down to.

00:59:54
Speaker 2: Anyway.

00:59:55
Speaker 1: Let's move on to one more running back, another fairly controversial one, Derreck Henry. I don't think as controversial, but where are you at with Henry and his fit within this Baltimore offense.

01:00:06
Speaker 3: You know, I do like the fit and there's so much you know, we talk about how like these Konami code quarterbacks end up kind of vulturing touches away for running backs, but that's never really been the case in Baltimore. Like you look at Josh Allen when they get it within the five yard line, he's taking a snap out of the shotgun, he's finding the lane, and he's just plowing his way into the end zone. Of course, Jalen hurts as the tousch push. But what we've seen pretty much Lamar Jackson's entire career is that he's going to take the ball under center and turn around and give the ball to his running back. And like that's what we want for Derrick Henry. But man, it's impossible to ignore the down trending efficiency. Of course, we've seen, like you know, smart guys like ourselves, JJ, like we have identified this downtrended efficiency for years and just continue to have egg all over our face every year.

01:00:47
Speaker 1: You're the last person that anyone wants to talk to about Derrick Henry, for sure.

01:00:51
Speaker 3: But I get it, Like you look at everything like there isn't a metric out there that he hasn't trended down in since twenty twenty after attack, rushing yards over expectation, broken tackle rate, yards per attempt, and you could even, like, you don't even have to look at the efficiency stuff, you could just look at his overall volume and his overall production. They have all been trending down for four straight seasons. So I think with Derrick Henry, again, this is one where I'm just going to kind of cop out and say that I think he's kind of appropriately priced, because it's obvious that Derek Henry could be a landmine, you know, going into his age thirty season on a new offense. It's possible that Derek Henry just goes for eight hundred yards and four touchdowns this year and the usage finally catches up to him. But the other side of the story is that he can go for twenty two touchdowns this year in Baltimore. And I think that there's so much upside with Dereck Henry in this offense, knowing how they operate near the goal line, that you kind of have to draft some Dererick Henry just in case we're wrong. But he's not a guy that I'm like aggressively clamoring for either huge, huge range of outcomes for where he's going. But Derek Henry could easily be top five running back in this offense. So I think that you kind of have to draft him here and there because of where he's going, and you don't want to miss out on that upside. But if I'm just doing one league, like that's it. If I'm just playing one fantasy football league, I'm probably not even thinking about taking Derrick Henry until the fourth or fifth round, which means that I'm probably not getting Derrick Henry. But when you're drafting volume, I think that you kind of have to sprinkle some Derick Henry in.

01:02:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's gonna go pretty early in home leagues this year.

01:02:25
Speaker 1: I would imagine it's because a name brand and people being excited about him being in Baltimore, which I think is all valid.

01:02:30
Speaker 2: Maybe name brand aside. I think that the situation is.

01:02:33
Speaker 1: Really valid, especially because he's not a he's ever been a pass catching back, and that doesn't really matter in an offense like Baltimore's. That's not where the value really comes, you know, for for a running back in that Baltimore offense, so I agree. I'm I'm basically at market with with Henry. I'm not playing that game this year. Maybe people will see that as a cop out, but I understand you know both sides of the spectrum with Henry.

01:02:55
Speaker 2: You know, as you as you laid out, I would agree with you entirely.

01:02:59
Speaker 1: Now you have haven't had a strong, strong take with Kayron or Derrick Henry. So tell me, Dave, who are the guys that you dramatically or think are dramatically undervalued right now?

01:03:09
Speaker 3: All right, I'll stick with the running backs since we're talking about running backs, and JJ, you came in on our show, The Football Guys Fantasy Football Show a few months ago and we did a show about guys who are undervalued, and at that point in time, I said Jonathan Brooks was undervalued and his ADP hasn't really changed. So I am still drafting Jonathan Brooks. I keep waiting for his ADP to go up and it just hasn't. But clear RB one of this class, even despite coming off of ACLTARE last year, and you just look at the situation there. Miles Sanders was terrible, Chuba Hubbard was basically average. I don't know if you can say anything outside of average for what Chuba Hubbard did last year. But I get excited about this Panthers offense as a whole. And maybe I am just sipping the kool aid too much, but you look at the offensive line improvements, You look at bringing in Deontay Johnson and his Xavier Lagette. Now they suddenly have a formidable passing attack. But really it's Canalis, the guy that we've seen resuscitate Gino Smith and Baker Mayfield in back to back seasons. I have faith that he can bring out some better play from Bryce Young. And what it comes down to is just Jonathan Taylor being a good running back. Though logged a breakaway run on forty three percent of his rushes in college, and then he also catches a ton of passes. The only running back last year that had more yards per route run was Trevion Henderson, who's probably gonna be the RB one in this class. So this guy is a great rusher, a great pass catcher, and he's on an offense that I expect to be a little bit better. Now. The one other thing I'll say about Jonathan Brooks, and I hesitate to make this comparison because Todd Gurley was an elite prospect, you know, went top ten in the draft. But Todd Gurley tore his ACL on almost the same exact timeline that Jonathan Brooks tours ACL. It both happened in early November, and Todd Gurley was kind of eased into his role as a rookie, didn't do a ton, but still finished the year as a top twelve running back. But what excites me most is that during the fantasy playoffs, you know, the we that were really hoping to get these big spike weeks from Todd Gurley as a rookie coming off of an acltear averaged nineteen point nine points per game. So that's kind of the thesis that I have with Jonathan Brooks is, Yeah, you know, he might not be a guy that you're plugging in Week one as an RB one, but I expect his role to grow as the offense or as the season progresses, and I'm hoping that you can draft him in the eighth or ninth round and get RB one production over the second half of the season.

01:05:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, makes a lot of sense.

01:05:26
Speaker 1: And Dave Canalis too, is someone who gave Rashad White a massive massive belcow workload last year. I don't think he's afraid to do that as long as Jonathan Brooks is healthy, of course, of course, and.

01:05:38
Speaker 3: That's a fear. I mean, he's already on NFI and when I saw that hit, I was like, cool, I'm gonna get him for even cheap, exactly because ADP as a budget like I think people kind of anticipated that move ahead of time. But Jonathan Brooks is a guy Dynasty Best Ball Redraft. I'm just a big fan of the talent, trying to get him wherever I can.

01:05:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, what about an over valued player that you're not that into draft this year?

01:06:01
Speaker 3: This feels sacrilegious to say, but Devonte Adams is a guy that I'm just really struggling to hit the draft button on this year. I know you've done a lot of studies on age curves, and you know once you get thirty two, thirty two and older is a tough year or a tough age for wide receivers. And of course we see the outliers, you know, the the Anquan Boldens and the Steve Smith's and the Larry FitzGeralds. They're out there. But over the last ten years, we've only seen six wide receivers above age thirty one record a thousand plus yards, and of course one of them last year was Adam Thielen, So like, it's possible, but I just get a little bit concerned. We're seeing the down trend. And Dwayne MacFarlane just did a really cool study on age curves and said that, you know, he doesn't expect to see DeVante Adams just fall off the age cliff, like you know, receivers that are that good don't just fall off the age cliff like that. But it is going to be a slow, steady march downward. And we're already seeing that his yards per game have dipped for the last four seasons. Last year was the fewest yards per game he's had since twenty seventeen. And I know, like the situation last year wasn't great, but I don't think that it's any better this year. Like Gardner, Minshew, Aidan O'Connell, whoever it is, it's not going to be a good offense. And then they've of course added Brock Bauers, who's going to take a big chunk of the target chair for himself. So I think in best ball you can still kind of sell me on DeVante Adams because he does have those weeks where he can still go for thirty or forty points. But Davante Adams, assuming he's going to be going somewhere in round two and season long drafts, I'm not going to want him because there's gonna be some highs and there's going to be some lows. Those lows are going to be really really low, and I think there's just a lot of red flags right now. So again, just it comes down to acquisition costs, and when I'm in round two and I see Nico Collins and Jalen Waddle and Brandon Ayuk available, I just much prefer those guys to DeVante Adams.

01:07:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I've I've been leaning that way.

01:07:55
Speaker 1: I think I didn't think about it enough in like May or so, but over the last months I've definitely leaned that way. And I'm like, I'm taking a guy like Jalen Wattle over DeVante Adams for instance, and not really feeling super super bad about it, just given the situation. Las Vegas can also run at a pretty slow pace more than likely and not run a ton of plays and be pretty run heavier at least try to and that defense isn't that bad either. I don't think that it's necessarily that they're going to be in these like ultra neegative game scripts, so that's bad for fantasy football all around. So I like that call out of DeVante Adams Man. This was great to chop it up. Have you on Perspectives. We've obviously done plenty of shows together, but it was great to have you on here. For anyone not following you following your work, can you let everyone know where they can find you?

01:08:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, real simply you can just follow me on Twitter at Dave Klugi. If you like a heavy dose of sarcasm and memes and jokes, you'll find all that there. But if you want to find all of my actual content where I take some nuanced approaches to fantasy football, you can find all that over at Football Guys writing articles. I got the Football Guys Fantasy Football show that I'm doing with Alfredo Brown in three episodes a week right now. We'll be ramping that up soon. I've also got a Best Ball live stream that we're doing on that same YouTube channel on Fridays at eleven am Eastern. But really, just follow me on Twitter at Dave Klugi and I promote and share all the content that I'm putting out.

01:09:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're a great You're a great account.

01:09:16
Speaker 1: Despite people not understanding and seeing the sarcasm, h you know, throughout throughout the years, it's always hilarious.

01:09:21
Speaker 3: There was one just the other day that that blew my mind. I don't know if you saw this one, jj I tweeted out. I said I was looking historically for undersized, unathletic Day three running backs who did nothing in their rookie season to see who could break out in year two to find this year's Karen Williams. And every single reply was like earnestly saying like, oh, it could be Eric Ray, you know it could be and like not one person understood that I was just making a joke about what an outlier of.

01:09:46
Speaker 2: Sas Williams had.

01:09:48
Speaker 3: It's a humor is tough out here on Twitter.

01:09:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel you.

01:09:51
Speaker 1: I can be sarcastic too, and I I have the problem of then when people don't understand the sarcasm, I always feel the urge to respond to them and be like, hey, I'm being so sarcastic, and then it just yeah, yeah, it just it just it just gets.

01:10:04
Speaker 2: So out of hand.

01:10:05
Speaker 1: Anyway, you can find all my stuff over on lateround dot com. Make sure you're checking out the late Round Draft guide. There's an underdog promo, as you guys know, take a look at that lateround dot com.

01:10:14
Speaker 2: But otherwise, everyone, enjoy your weekend and thank you for tuning in.