834: 15 Transactions for Week 11

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Speaker 1: This is the Label podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher reson what's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and thirty four of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. As a reminder, I do other things outside of this podcast. I mean with fantasy football analysis. There's a Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon where you can get rest of season rankings and tiers, weekly rankings and tiers, data dumps, live q and as, and more. You can use the patreon month to month if need be. It's ten dollars a month. Like I've been saying, I'm just trying to make a living here, I'm not trying to take all of your money. Check it out though, by heading to Lateround dot com. Sell Nasei Harris. Now, I wouldn't doubt that if you talk to fantasy football managers that they would think that Naji Harris is having this horrible, horrible fantasy season, because anchoring bias is a very real thing. Harris started off his season really really bad. He averaged six point seven PPR points per game from week one to Week five. Everyone probably thinks that that's the way that the season is gone. But the Steelers had their buy in Week six, and since that bye, Nase Harris hasn't been that bad in fantasy football. Over his last four outings, he scored no fewer than ten point five PPR points. He's averaging fifteen point one PPR points per game. Now, what's kind of interesting about this is that this exact same thing happened in twenty twenty two. Before Pittsburgh's by Last year, Harris had ten point nine PPR points per game. That was his average. That shot up to fifteen point two after the bye. And to be clear out of the bye week, for Najie Harris, his workload has gotten better. During his bad opening stretch, he was averaging a running back rush are per game of about sixty five percent. His target share per game was under six percent. But during his last four games that running back rush share it's dropped by about five percentage points. But what's way more important is that his target share per game during this really good stretch or this better stretch, is fourteen point four percent. So his target share has jumped by over eight percentage points. And I'll say this if we were guaranteed that type of target share from here on out. If we were guaranteed this workload from Naji Harris from now through the end of the season, he wouldn't be a cell candidate. I'm just not sure that this is not sustainable. According to Next Gen Stats data, during the first five weeks of the season, Naji Harris was seeing a target on about thirteen percent of his routes run that ranked in just the fourteenth percentile among relevant running backs. Now, over his last four games, where he's had this fourteen point four percent target share, that numbers shot up to thirty three percent of the fifty running backs with forty or more routes run during this stretch, only Aaron Jones has seen a higher targets per route run. Harris has seen more targets per route run than Alvin Freakin Kamara. That to me, everyone is unsustainable, and we have evidence that it's not sustainable, not just because of what he did to start this season, but what he's done during his career. His targets per route run rate is nineteen percent throughout his career before twenty twenty three. And let's not ignore his touchdown production either. He's now scored in three of his last four games. That's boosting his point totals. Now here's the thing. If you have Najie Harris and you're looking good for the playoffs, you might want to hold rather than sell because their playoff schedule really isn't that bad. But if you need to win right now, this might be the time to sell Najie Harris, especially because the Steelers get the Browns this week. But again, if your league mats are sort of anchored to this idea that Harris has not been very good in fantasy football, maybe he is just more of a hold than to sell. But if they understand how he's been performing, then you might be able to sell high and tied to Chandler. So this is a repeat transaction from last week, but things have changed in that Minnesota backfield, so it needs to be reiterated. Ty Chandler still rostered in just eight percent of Yahoo leagues, but it's important because Alexander Madison's can cussed and players who were concussed tend to sit out at least a game, and that could lead to a lot more Ty Chandler in Week eleven against the Broncos. But even before that concussion occurred for Alexander Madison, Chandler was seeing more work in that Vikings backfield, at least compared to how things looked earlier on in the season when he was the number two back. Now this is according to my friend Jim Sanis over at FanDuel, But before Alexander Madison had that concussion, he was out snapping Ty Chandler thirty to seventeen in that backfield, which is a lot closer than it was earlier this season. Both players had eight attempts on the ground. Madison had two targets, Chandler had zero. So what I'm saying here is there's a chance that Chandler's a flexworthy player even when Alexander Madison's healthy and they've got a great rest of season schedule two. But with the concussion, he should see an increased workload in Week eleven. He's a must add this week. Hold Noah Brown. When big performances come from unlikely players, like we've seen with Noah Brown, fantasy managers usually try to sell. They try to sell the players high. But through the years, I've learned that doing that is easier said than done. Realistically, Yeah, Noah Brown is probably a cell candidate. He's played five games this season and he's maxed out at a good but not great, twenty point eight percent target share. More importantly, the Texans haven't played a game since Week one with their four main wide receivers active and healthy. Those four being Noah Brown, Tank Dell, Robert Woods, and Nico Collins. And back in Week one, Tank Dell hadn't shown what he can do. Brown was playing ahead of Dell. We shouldn't bank on that happening moving forward. When all four of these players are healthy, my guess is that Brown and Robert Woods are gonna rotate out of the slot. Either that or all four of these players are gonna see a decrease in snapcount. Now, there's a chance that Brown just overtakes Woods, but I think Woods is still a capable pass catcher. I think they still like Robert Woods. This is basically all to say that the Texans passing attack, while it's incredibly good because of CJ. Stroud and how awesome he's been, it could be obnoxious at times down the stretch. I think this is more geared towards Noah Brown and Robert Woods. In his Tank Dell and Nico Collins. But ask yourself, is anyone really buying Noah Brown right now? Are they really trading for him after he posts one hundred and fifty three and one hundred and seventy two yards in back to back games. Again, if they are, I do think that he's a hypothetical cell. But if you want an optimistic view, there's still a chance that we see Brown as an every down player with a healthy wide receiver corp. He's played great, the Texans could reward him, and for the record in the Fantasy playoffs, Houston does get Tennessee twice. They're a plus matchup and it justin fantasy points allowed. So I think it's fine to just sit back and hold Noah Brown and hope that this continues to some degree. Add Michael Wilson, So this is yet another repeat transaction. I've talked about adding Michael Wilson because of Kyler Murray returning to that Arizona Cardinals lineup, and if you didn't get him, it's not too late. He's still available in eighty eight percent of Yahoo leagues. But Wilson saw a nineteen point four percent target share in Week ten against Atlanta, and I think that's noteworthy. It was his first game with Kyler Murray. He had six targets, he caught three of them for thirty four yards, and he almost scored a touchdown. And Kyler Murray looked good. This whole passing attack has intriguing rest of season upside. The Cardinals whind outs though they have the ninth best remaining schedule by justin Fantasy points allowed, and they've got the fifth best schedule in the fantasy playoffs. So I think Michael Wilson should be rostered in far more leagues by Lamar Jackson. Listen, everyone, regression is coming from Lamar Jackson. He's averaged twelve point two points per game over his last three games. He's failed to hit fourteen points in any of those contests. Before this stretch, he was averaging about twenty one standard Fantasy points per game. It's not time to panic. Baltimore has scored eleven offensive touchdowns over their last three That tells you that the offense is still moving the ball up and down the field. Unfortunately, only two of those touchdowns have come from Lamar Jackson's arm. Only three of them have come via the air. That means that the Ravens have seen a twenty seven percent pass to rush touchdown rate during this time. To give you some context, since twenty eleven, the lowest pass to rush touchdown rate it came from the Buffalo Bills. In twenty sixteen, their rate was thirty seven percent, significantly higher than what we're seeing from Baltimore right now. The Ravens have an above average schedule for quarterbacks moving forward, and in the fantasy playoffs, this might be the lowest to get Jackson all season long. Hold Keaton Mitchell. So regression is coming for Keaton Mitchell too. Over Mitchell's last two games, he's averaging a rushing touchdown for every six rush attempts. That's not sustainable even if he's this big play running back with a lot of speed. And that's especially true because he's not the Ravens gold line back. It's just not sustainable production overall. So why not consider him as a cell? Well, I think you technically could consider him a cell in some cases. Look, let me just break this down. This Keaton Mitchell breakout is a lot of fun. The main reason I think he's more of a hold here than a cell is because given what he's done, I do think Baltimore will reward him with more rush attempts, with more volume on the ground and through the air. He had just a thirty three percent running back rush are in Week nine, and then this past week it was nineteen percent. He also played just twenty two percent of Baltimore snaw this past week. Those numbers feel like they're definitely gonna rise. The issue that I'm having with Keaton Mitchell right now, and this is where the cell part comes into play, but it's that there are a lot of Keaton Mitchell truthers out there. We're already seeing comps to Devon a Chan talking about him being a league winning player. There's nothing wrong with seeing that as a high end outcome for Keaton Mitchell, but some fantasy managers are seeing that as fact. There are a lot of differences between Keaton Mitchell and Devon a Chan. Eh Chan was a better prospect. He can see goal line work in his offense, He's in a better run scheme, and he was seeing way better target shairs than what Keaton Mitchell's been seeing. Like, I'm projecting more work for Keaton Mitchell moving forward, but what are the odds that he's seeing a significant snap share in that Baltimore backfield. Only two Baltimore Ravens running backs have hit a seventy percent snapshare this year. Now, my guess is that your league mates are not willing to give up a true bell cow back or even a player like Devon a Chan for Keaton If your best return is more of an RB three type, maybe someone like Chewba Hubbard. I don't see the reason in getting rid of Keaton Mitchell for a player like Hubbard. If you can get a Rashad White type Isaiah Pacheco, a solid wide receiver two like Michael Pittman, That's where I'd be more than willing to trade Mitchell away. Ad Rico Dowdell So I talked about Rico Dowdle on last week's Sleeper Show, is one of the better picks of the week. He ended up scoring almost fourteen PPR points against the Giants. Now, he ended up seeing forty three percent of Dallas's running back rushes in that blowout against New York. That type of workload probably not going to continue, not without an injury to Tony Pollard. But there could be an injury to Tony Pollard. This is football that we're talking about, injuries happen. This is the time of year where your bench cannon should be used for some handcuffs because we have a better grasp of what teams look like and how they're managing their players. Now there are fewer stashes in fantasy football, so we can use that bench real estate on higher upside handcuffs, and Dowdell is a higher upside handcuff. I know that Tony Pollard hasn't been converting, and for the record, I still do think that Pollard's a bye candidate, but that's for another show. Dallas is a top ten rest of season running back schedule by adjustin fantasy points allowed, and here in Week eleven, you might be able to use Dawdell if you're in a pinch. They get Carolina. They're ten and a half point favorites right now. But this transaction is a reminder to get your handcuffs even if you don't have the handcuff starter roster on your team. Add Pat Fryarmuth. So Pat Fryermuth is eligible to come off of IR this week. He's evidently close to returning to action. If he does go this week, you can't play him they get Cleveland. Cleveland has been unreal against tight ends. Mark Andrews this year in two games has one hundred and twenty four receiving yards. Every other tight end combined against Cleveland has eighty receiving yards. After Week eleven, though Friarmuth could be usable, he has three above average matchups in the Fantasy playoffs according to adjusted Fantasy points allowed. I know that he didn't get off to a hot start this year, but we've seen him be reliable in the past, so why not throw that dart by DK Metcalf. So there are times where I'll give some sort of recommendation on this show, it'll fail to come to fruition, and then readers and listeners they'll ask me, is that still a transaction that you'd be making when it comes to DK Metcalf. A couple of weeks ago, I called him a bye and he has one hundred percent still a by candidate. Metcalf has not scored in four games, but he's seen a target share per game rate over this time of twenty eight percent. Based on where he's seeing his targets, he should have over five touchdowns this year. He scored twice and Aside from regression, part of the reason that he was featured as a by candidate a couple of weeks ago is Seattle's schedule. Seahawks wide receivers have the number one schedule from now until the end of the season when look into justin fantasy points allowed and in the fantasy playoffs, they get the Eagles, the Titans, and the Steelers. Those are three teams who rank at the moment as top five favorable matchups for wide receivers. Process wise, dk Metcalf is a very obvious by candidate Sell Kenneth Walker. Now on the flip side the Seattle running back schedule, it's not as good as the wide receiver one. Now, my original plan this week was to not have Kenneth Walker as a sell candidate, but then I sent a tweet out about Zach Charbonnay's uptick in usage over Seattle's last three games, and it was clear that there are people who are very, very high on Kenneth Walker. He's out snapped Kenneth Walker in three consecutive games, and Walker as a result, has seen target shares of just five point six percent, eight percent and four point eight percent. Walker's running fewer routes than he was to start the season. Earlier this year, his route participation closer to forty five percent. Over the last three weeks, it's been twenty five percent. And Walker's running back rushhare numbers have dropped two. They've been sixty nine percent over his last three games. On average, before that, it was around eighty percent. Now, these might seem like small percentages, and I understand that Kenneth Walker's been a little bit banged up too, but they can beat the difference between RB one and inn RB two and fantasy football, because what happens when Seattle hits a negative game script what happens if Kenneth Walker doesn't hit one of those iconic big touchdowns. Because that's what happened in Week ten. Walker carried the ball nineteen times for sixty three yards. That's totally fine, but he caught only one pass. That one pass happened to go for a sixty four yard touchdown. And yeah, I understand, you guys, that's Walker's game. You get big plays with Kenneth Walker. He's been doing that since college, probably before college, I would assume. But I don't love relying on that kind of production, especially because he is a bottom ten schedule by Justin Fantasy points Allowed. From here on out, the Seahawks get the Rams this week, and then they get the forty nine Ers, Cowboys, forty nine Ers, Eagles, and Titans. None of those teams are top half matchups for running backs by Justin Fantasy points Allowed. If someone in your league is valuing Kenneth Walker as like a top eight running back or so moving forward, I think that's when you can sell he can and will still be valuable moving forward. That's not what I'm saying here. He's gonna have those weeks where he makes some big plays and he's still the goal line back too. He's gonna score some touchdowns. My point here is is that even though Seattle wants to feed him the rock, Zach Charbonney is seeing an uptick and snapshare that has limited the amount of groundwork that Kenneth Walker might see and it's definitely limited his receiving upside. So when you combine that with the schedule, I do think that there's a chance in your league that Kenneth Walker's is sell candidate. By James Connor. So James Connor returned to action in Week ten. He had that ir stint. He walked away with just seven point three PPR points, But that's what makes him a really intriguing by low. He didn't see a target in Arizona's game against Atlanta. That's somewhat of a concern. His route participation was actually only thirty eight percent. We'd like that number to get over fifty percent. But that being said, it's not like other running backs were running routes ahead of James Connor. No Arizona Cardinals running back saw a target in that game. Connor led that backfield in routes run and we can't lose sight of the fact that it was Connor's first game back from injury. There's room for improvement as a pass catcher, and he's shown us in the past that he can be a pass catcher and he's got the ground game stuff. On lock he saw eighty four percent of Arizona' running back rushes on Sunday, and moving forward, Arizona has a pretty nice running back schedule, at least by just a Fantasy points allowed. They do have two tough games against the forty nine Ers and Eagles. Those are the only two matchups that are kind of scary on their schedule. You're doing a little bit of projecting with Connor's receiving work. There's a chance that this coaching staff doesn't want to use him in that way, but we've seen him be a bell cow in the past. He's got a shot to finish this season strong. Hold Dak Prescott. So if you have Dak Prescott, you've probably won a lot of fantasy matchups over the last month. He's averaging almost thirty standard fantasy points per game over his last four games. That number was eleven point eight across his first five. Now, schedule has played a role in this. That's what I talked about actually on this show. Before Week six, Prescott has faced the first, second, fourteenth, and eighteenth best opponents for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed during this four game stretch. So you're probably thinking, oh, then I should probably sell him high. But here's the thing. Dallas's schedule it's still really good moving forward. Their rest of season schedule is third best in the league. They've got the Panthers, Commanders, Seahawks, Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, and Lions through the end of the fantasy season. Not only are those pretty easy opponents on paper, but there is potential shootouts there. You got games against the Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, and Lions. Those are potential shootouts. So I think this Cowboys passing attack is here to stay by Josh Downs. So one of the sneakier buys this week that anything you can make in my eyes at least is with Josh Downs. The culture on a bye any Downs manager, they may be willing to give him away at a slight discount. He's also coming off a game where he saw just an eleven and a half percent target chair and he scored only six PPR points. But as many of you know, he's been dealing with his knee injury. He only ran twelve routes against the Patriots. He saw three targets on those twelve routes, so his targets per route run rate wasn't that bad despite the fact that he wasn't fully one hundred percent. With the buy Downs, can heal up now and be closer to one hundred percent for the rest of the season, and the rest of the season should be favorable for him. Colts wide receivers had the sixth best schedule by justin fantasy points allowed from now through the end of the year and the short term is really really nice. They get the Bucks, Titans, Bengals, and Steelers out of their by Three of those teams rank US top five favorable matchups for wide receivers and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. So it's a weirder transaction, but it's one that makes plenty of sense to me. Add Jordan Love. So we saw a little bit more life from Jordan Love this past week against the Steelers. He had sixteen points seven standard Fantasy points. That was his highest output since Week four. But in reality, for as bad as Love has been at times this year, he's been fine enough as a streaming quarterback. He's dipped below thirteen point eight points just once this season, in Week eleven, the Packers get the Chargers. No team has allowed more adjusted points to quarterbacks this season than LA. When quarterbacks have faced the Chargers this year, they've scored four point four more points than their season long average. Love is still out there in about sixty percent of Yahoo leagus. If you need a quarterback this week, I think that he works. Add the Washington Commander's defense. Tommy DeVito has thrown twenty or more passes in two games this year. Week nine and Week ten matchups against the Raiders and the Cowboys. In those two games, the Giants have allowed thirteen sacks and they've thrown three interceptions. Washington is up next. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bestaging for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and Joe to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening. Everyone greatly appreciate it. As always, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show.