955: Week 14 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha, j J Zacher Reason, what's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode nine hundred and fifty five of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's sleeper show was pretty solid. Russell Wilson, Bryce Young, and Drake May were all viable streamers. That was a plus. Antonio Gibson had his best fantasy outing in the season, Adam Thelen had a big day, Hunter Henry was a top ten tight end. Even Tommy Tremble and Theo Johnson were decent, and the wide receivers with hyphenated last names, they both found the end zone. Now on the flip side, I did say it was gonna be a lad Mconkey day given the matchup in Atlanta, but I called out Josh Palmer two he did next to nothing. The Chargers backfield was also a disappointment. Xavier Leget didn't work out and nothing really happened with the Colts passing attack. So I think it was an above average week for sleepers. Let's keep things moving into Week fourteen. Now, before we get into the sleepers, I want to remind you to check out Underdog. There are tons of snake drafts you can join right now over on Underdog for not just this week's late of games, but for the playoffs as well. That's right. Playoff best ball is here, and there's one contest, the Gauntlet that's a twenty five dollars entry with two million dollars in prizes. If that's too high of an entry point for you, you can also join the three dollars per entry Little Mitten. That's where there's fifty thousand dollars in prizes. There's always something at Underdog that will fit what you're looking for. If you've never played there, make sure you sign up right now with promo code Late Round. You can get a nice depositive offer. With that promo code, you can also get access to my rest of season rankings. That's Underdog Fantasy dot Com promo code Late Round. We'll kick things off as we usually do, with players rostered and ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and we'll start with quarterbacks. Will Levis is currently just sixteen percent rostered, and he gets a juicy matchup against the Jags this week. Levis himself has averaged about seventeen standard fantasy points per game over his last four He hasn't dipplelow fifteen points six points during that time. The Jags are the top matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed, and they've given up the most adjusted passing yards this season as well, So I think Levis makes sense as a QB two type this week who could find your lineup if one of your quarterbacks is on by. Jamis Winston has a really tough matchup on paper against the Steelers this week. In fact, Pittsburgh ranks is the toughest matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. But he's been in some pretty mediocre positions so far this year and he's been okay. Like last week he boasted thirty three points against Denver. Cleveland has had a really strong dropback over expected rate in six of their last seven games, and unlike the last time they face Pittsburgh, this game is not projected to be in a snowstorm and it's in Pittsburgh. That's making the Steelers pretty strong favorites, which could lead to another high volume day for Jamis Winston. And he's the type of fantasy quarterback that you would want in that scenario. Now, moving on to running back in this tier, let's go to that same game. Let's go to Jerome Ford. Now, I mentioned Ford the last time the Browns faced the Steelers, and it was an l but that game script was weird and the weather played a role in how those offenses operated. This week, I think there's the potential for a Ford game. Pittsburgh ranks is an above average opponent for running backs by justin points allowed, and they've given up an above average target share per game right two, that benefits Forward. If this game script goes south, then that'll really help Ford as well. He saw sixty two percent rout share last week. He's been in a fifty six percent rout chair since Nick Chubb returned to the field. He even out snapped Chubb last week fifty five to twenty nine. So we could see some production from Ford in this one. Now, at the time of this recording, I'm not exactly sure what this Raiders backfield is going to look like in Week fourteen when they face the Buccaneers. If Alexander Madison is back, I think you probably have to favor him, given he was seeing forty five to fifty percent of the team's running back rushes before he got hurt, and those numbers were significantly higher without Zamir White, who's also banged up. Now, if both of those guys are sidelined once again for whatever reason, sincere McCormick becomes kind of an interesting deep play, so he would be in the other tier that I'll talk about later. Now. Amir Abdullah got more work than McCormick in Week thirteen, but the Raiders might reward McCormick for a strong day of sixty four yards on twelve carries. I just would worry a little bit about his receiving upside because Abdullah has been playing that role for the Raiders and in Week thirteen, McCormick only ran a route on nine percent of Vegas's dropbacks, so monitor that situation. The Buccaneers are a better defense to throw on than run on, and that game script could go south that would benefit someone like Abdullah if both Madison and White are out again, but McCormick is at least an interesting name to follow. Tajy Spears returned for the Titans last week, and it's almost like they didn't use him fully because he wasn't up to speed. Say what you want about them favoring Pollard last week was different. Spears is typically seeing double digit percentage target shaars when he plays, but he didn't see a target. He only carried the ball one time against the Commanders. I think there's a chance that that changes this week against Jacksonville. Tony Pollard he's your go to here. I talked about that earlier in the week, but Jacksonville's the second best matchup for running backs by justin points allowed, and the Titans their favorites in this game, there may be a point in time where the Titans has had to feature Spears a little bit more. If things do get out of hand. He's definitely risky, but that's why he's a sleeper. Now, moving on to wide receiver, let's stick with the Titans. Let's go back to Nick Westbrook Akine for like the fourth straight week now. His touchdown luck is gonna run out eventually, but his peripherals are getting better, which means there's a little bit more sustainability to his numbers. He's hit a twenty percent target share in each of his last three games, and like I said, the Titans get the Jags, that's arguably the best matchup for a passing attack in football, so he's definitely in play. Elijah Moore is averaging over nine targets per game over his last six He's seen a target share per game rate of about twenty one percent during that timeframe. He's running about sixty one percent of his routes from the slot, and he's gonna face a Steelers team this week that's seen above average percentage of targets go to slot wide receivers against them this season. If that negative game script does happen like I talked about with Jamis Winston, that could benefit Elijah Moore even if Cedric Tillman is back now. Another slot matchup to potentially exploit this week is with Wandell Robinson against the Saints. Robinson has his seventy nine percent slot rate this year. According to PFF, New Orleans has seen the third highest adjusted target share go to slot wideouts this year. Robinson's target haven't been as strong of late, but maybe things turn around in a decent matchup. Romeo Dobbs is going to miss another game this week, and that makes Dontavian Wix a sleeper once again. The Packers haven't implied total of almost twenty four points this week in a game against Detroit, and that game has the highest over under on the slate, so there could be scoring. Detroit's been better against the run than the past this year from a fantasy perspective, the second toughest matchup for running backs by adjusted points allowed, but they're the ninth best one for wide receivers. Wicks ran around on eighty two percent of Green Bay's dropbacks last week. He'll play as a starter in this really strong environment and that could bring some fantasy points. And then the last wide out in this tier is Brandon Cooks. Cook's return to action last week hit a nineteen percent target share while running a round on just fifty four percent in Dallas's dropbacks. It's not hard to see a scenario where that route share it increases this week and the Cowboys get a Bengals team that's pretty bad across the board, but they've allowed the fifth most adjusted points the wide receivers this season. At tight end in this tier, I only have one for you, and it's Will Disley. Disley didn't give us the goods last week, but he did run a round on seventy one percent of justin Herbert's dropbacks. That's a solid number. Not only is lad mcconkee dealing with an injury, but the Chiefs are the third best matchup for tight ends by justin points allowed. They've also given up the third highest target chair to the position. That's a justed for strength of opponent as well, so will Disley solid play. The next tier players consist of guys rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues were digging deeper at quarterback. In this tier, you could look at Aidan O'Connell. I actually think O'Connell's in the same tier from a rankings perspective as Jamis Winston and Will Levis. This week, the Raiders get Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is right there with Jacksonville as the best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. They've also given up the second most adjusted passing yards allowed. O'Connell looked good last week in a much tougher spot against Kansas City, so he's a decent streamer. And there's also Cooper Rush. Rush only scored twelve points last week, but he had a sixteen point and eighteen point outing in his two games prior. He gets a Cincinnati team that, like I said with Brandon Cooks, they've been bad this year. Defensively, this game's total isn't bad and it could see one of the better paces of all the games played this weekend that can result in more plays run. But the Bengals are the fourth best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. The matchup is there for rush at running back? I have won for you in this tier. It's Kenneth Gainwell. This is simply a play on the fact that the Eagles are twelve and a half point home favorites against the Panthers and Carolina has allowed forty eight running back rushing yards per game above expected this year, meaning when teams face Carolina, their running backs have rushed for forty eight more yards than their season long averages. That's basically double the next highest team. It's a juicy matchup, and if gamescript goes the way that it looks like it might go, then the Eagles might opt to use more Kenneth Gainwell in in this game. At wide receiver, you could pair Aidan O'Connell with Trey Tucker. Now, Tucker only saw a three percent target share against the Chiefs, but he connected on his one target for fifty eight yards in a touchdown. More importantly, from a forecasting standpoint, he ran around on every single Vegas dropback last week. That should lead to more targets, and this week they get the Buccaneers and it's a matchup that's one of the best that you're gonna find on paper, so he's in a good spot. I talked about Parker Washington on the fifteen Transactions episode and how he's seen his two highest target shaars of the season. With Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis sidelined, that's gonna be the case for the rest of the year, so he works against Tennessee this week. The matchup though, is not anything special. It's actually pretty below average, but volume may allow Washington to be relevant this week. That's why he's getting a shout and then a super deep play. Tim Patrick. He ran around on seventy four percent in Detroit's dropbacks last week, and he's seen respectable target chairs of thirteen percent twelve ten percent over his last three. Now, he hasn't been amazing and he hasn't found the end zone, but he's a deep league way of getting exposure to this game with a high total now at tight end in this tier, watch the Dalton Kincaid and Jake Ferguson statuses this week. If they don't go, you can look at Dawson Knox and Luke scoon Maker. But one sleeper that absolutely should be on people's radars is Grant cal Katara Dallas Goddard's out and without Goddard for essentially four games this season, cal Kata had an eighty eight percent rout chair and his seventeen percent target share. Those are both really really good numbers for a tight end. And this week Philly gets Carolina. Like I was just talking about the Panthers ringing tent and adjusted target share to tight ends this year, they're first and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to the position. It's a gorgeous matchup for a guy who's seen a lot of work with Dallas Goddard sidelined, so he makes a ton of sense with streaming defenses this week. I mentioned the Saints against the Giants earlier in the week on the fifteen Transaction Show, so they work, and then I did the same with the Cardinals against the Seahawks. I think those are the two go tos. But if Miami's available. I like them against the Jets, and then you could go at Tennessee against Jacksonville as well. Now, finally, let's take a look at some picks that we can make over on Underdog this week. I like Will Levis higher than two hundred and eight and a half passing yards. Like I said, Jacksonville allows a lot of yards over expectation, and Levis has been above that mark in each of his last three I also want to go with Will Disley and Grant cal Kata to score touchdowns, and then we'll close things up. Aid and O'Connell higher than two hundred and twenty two and a half passing yards. You can use those if you want to or not by heading to Underdog Fantasy dot com. If you're new to the platform, make sure you use promo code Late Round when you sign up. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are buys shooting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't to follow me on Twitter at Late Round. Thank you. You can find me on Blue Sky as well with that same handle thanks for listening everyone. I got a Mailbag episode for you dropping tomorrow, and then another episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'll talk to you then