852: 15 Transactions for Week 16

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j.

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Speaker 2: Jake Zacher reson. What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and fifty two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. As I mentioned last week, this fifteen transaction show, it's a little bit different at the end of the fantasy season. Rather than giving you buy and sell transactions, I'm just focused on ads and drops. So every transaction that you hear is solely about the waiver wire. That's because trade deadlines have passed. With that being said, let's get to the first transaction of the week.

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Speaker 2: Add Ty Chandler.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of the transactions that I talked about last week, they're still applicable to this week, whether it's adding Clydewards, a Lair or z A mere White. I started last week's show with Ty Chandler about adding him off the waiver wire, but he's a special case. I need to repeat this transaction because his Week fifteen was very, very impactful. He took over for Alexander Madison as Minnesota's lead back against Cincinnati. He saw a ninety six percent running back rush Are and a twelve and a half percent target share. In that game, he scored about twenty five PPR points. Now, why it took this long for the Vikings to feature Ty Chandler? I have no idea as someone who touted Chandler at the start of the season. Yeah, it's kind of frustrating. I'm not gonna lie, but it's pretty clear that his performance against Cincy it should mean that he's gonna see more work over the next couple of weeks. Even if Madison is back and healthy in week sixteen, I don't know if that's gonna be the case, though, according to doctor Edwin Poras, Madison seems more likely to come back in week seventeen than Week sixteen. That would mean another week of ty Chandler being this team's lead back. And Dontavian Wicks. I've talked about Dontavian Wicks quite a bit over the last month and a half on this show. He said a really really underrated rookie season. He's leading that Packers team right now in yards per route run without Christian Watson. This past week against Tampa Bay, Wicks ran the second most routes at wide receiver for the Packers. He had a nineteen point four percent target share. He got six of seven balls for ninety seven yards. Now, something else happened in that game to help Wis out, and that was a Jaden Reid injury that happened at the beginning of the fourth quarter. His status right now totally up in the air, so is Christian Watson's. But both of those injuries could mean a lot of Dontavian Wicks in Week sixteen, so I would add him just in case. Ad Tucker Craft. So another Packers pass catcher who's benefiting from these injuries is Tucker Craft. Craft is basically just playing the Luke Musgrave role in this Packers offense. You could argue he's doing a better job at it. He's now seen target shairs of seventeen percent, eleven percent, and seventeen percent over his last three he scored double DIGITPPR points and he's his last two. So given the injury question marks around this Green Bay Packers passing attack, Craft could walk into a fifteen percent target share here in Week sixteen pretty easily. That's enough to be usable in fantasy football. Tight end add Curtis Samuel. Another player that I've talked about a lot this season on this show, Curtis Samuel Man, He's been getting it done for a lot of the season, and fantasy managers just don't seem to care. He's still out there in sixty three percent of Yahoo leagues to spite a twenty five and a half percent target share per game rate over his last three Now, the Commanders have a tough couple of weeks coming up. They get the Jets in the forty nine ers, but the Jets have allowed a top five target shair to the slot this season. Samuel could see six or seven targets in that matchup, and the Commanders are likely to be a pass heavy team in Week seventeen when they get the forty nine Ers. So given how he's performed this season, I think he's definitely worth an AD drop Samam Howe. Now, look, Sam Howe has had a great season from a value perspective. He was drafted as an afterthought in most fantasy drafts this year, and he's basically been a low end QB one, high end QB two in points per game.

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Speaker 2: He's been a nice.

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Speaker 1: Value, but in a lot of formats right now, you can probably drop him how was benched in week fifteen. It does sound like the Commanders are going to go back to him in week sixteen, but him being benched not a great sign. This week, How's gonna get the Jets New York has been the toughest matchup for quarterbacks this season by justin fantasy points allowed. Chances are you're not gonna feel great about Sam Howe here in week sixteen, and chances are from a probability standpoint, from a projection standpoint, Sam How's not gonna have a great game against the Jets, and then in week seventeen he gets San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: That's the fourth toughest.

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Speaker 1: Matchup for quarterbacks when looking at justin fantasy points allowed. Now, look, when the season's done, we might look back and say that Sam Howe had two great weeks against the Jets and the forty nine Ers. This isn't about looking in hindsight though, we're projecting and from a projection standpoint, starting how in the semi finals and then the finals, with those two matchups, that's a frightening thing to do. Add Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson. So Zach Moss was injured in Week fifteen, against the Steelers, and that led to a backfield tandem of Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson for the Colts. Sermon ended up out snapping Goodson twenty eight to eighteen. He saw seventeen carries. Goodson had eleven. Goodson, though was targeted twice while Sermon didn't have a single target. There's a lot of uncertainty right now when looking at this Colts backfield. It sounds like Zach Moss wants to go in week sixteen, but Jonathan Taylor he could also be back. But we can't just sit and wait and see what happens. We have to act earlier in the week with the information that we have, So adding these guys makes some sense. And I think the player that you want to add from the backfield, in my opinion, of course, is Trey Sermon. If both Taylor and Moss are out, Sermon's likely to see more work in that offense. After playing more snaps against Pittsburgh, and even though Goodson had more work as a receiver, Sermon actually ran more routes. He was getting more usage overall. But again you're gonna want to read reports. It's very possible that both Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss are back this week or that one of them's back, and if one of them plays, then these backup running backs they're not gonna be very useful in fantasy football, But for now we're gonna add Sermon and maybe in deeper formats Ad Goodson ad Josh Palmer. So, Josh Palmer finally returned to the field in Week fifteen, and his end of game stat line it actually looked pretty good. He cut four or four targets for one hundred and thirteen yards in a touchdown. He scored over twenty one PPR points. Now, the bad news from that game with Palmer is that his target share was only thirteen percent. He outperformed X based on that target chair. The good news, though, is that he was second on the Chargers in routes run and then on top of that, Keenan Allen's banged up Josh Palmer could very easily see that target chair shift upward here in Week sixteen. The bad news is that the Chargers are terrible and Easton Stick is his quarterback. I think you could do worse than Josh Palmer off the waiver wire, but I don't think he's gonna be an easy player to use, but that's kind of the case for most waiver wire wide receivers add Justice Hill. So unfortunately, the explosive rookie Keaton Mitchell, he suffered a really gruesome injury on Sunday night. Let's hope that he can get back and be his awesome, explosive self in twenty twenty four. In twenty twenty three, though, we're looking at a Ravens backfield from here on out with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. We have a sample of this backfield with just those two backs, and it basically went like this. Gus Edwards saw more early down work, and he saw more goal line work, but then Justice Hill was the team's primary pass catcher. Hill was averaging roughly a ten percent target chair per game right earlier this season, when Edwards was his primary competition. Now, I will say that part of the intrigue with Justice Hill is that he's been the hurry up guy throughout this twenty twenty three season. According to Fantasy Life's utilization report, Hill's played seventy six percent of the team's two minute snaps this year. Edwards is at thirteen percent. When Baltimore's trailing. Justice Hill is on the field, and that could be important over their next two games. They get the forty nine ers in the Dolphins. Those are two very good teams. Edwards is rostered in way too many leagues to be referenced on today's show, but Justice Hill is still out there in eighty seven percent of Yahoo leagues. He definitely needs to be added this week. Drop Damian Pierce. Now, look, I've talked about it being handcuffing season, and Damian Pierce technically kind of a handcuff so this transaction is not necessarily a must. It's just that if there are better handcuffs out there on your waiver wire, maybe like a Chase Brown type, I'd rather have that player than Damian Pierce. The Texans backfield is just kind of unpredictable over the last two weeks, though Pierce has seen five total rush attempts. Devin Singletary's been the guy that means that you're not playing Damian Pierce in week sixteen, and let's just pretend that he gets a bigger workload here in Week sixteen. Let's pretend that they use him more in this game. Are you gonna actually use him in Week seventeen against the Titans. Are you gonna feel that confident throwing him in your starting lineup again? From a handcuffing standpoint, fine, you can keep Damian Pierce around. The idea here, though, is that there are probably better handcuffs on your waiver wire. Even when Pierce was seeing a bigger workload earlier this season, he wasn't showing that much upside and Houston's matchups just aren't ideal over the next two weeks.

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Speaker 2: Add de Mario Douglas.

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Speaker 1: Look, I've talked a lot about Douglas this season two, and I really can't comprehend why he's still available in almost eighty percent of Yahoo leagues.

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Speaker 2: He's averaged a.

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Speaker 1: Target share per game rate of twenty three percent over his last six games. Now, he still hasn't found the end zone this season. Maybe that's the reason why he's on the waiver wire, because there's not that much upside with Douglas.

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Speaker 2: But there are plenty of teams.

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Speaker 1: Out there who could use cheap PPR production. That's exactly what De Mario Douglas gives you. Add Hunter Henry Hunter. Henry has ranked as a top five tight end in back to back weeks. Both of those games came with Bailey Zappi under center for New England. His performance two weeks ago a little bit fluky. He only had an eleven and a half percent target chair that's not very high, but he followed that up this past week with a twenty nine percent target chair against the Chiefs. He's now scored nineteen plus PPR points in back to back games. The Patriots have used Henry more over the last month and a half. His route participation has been about thirteen percentage points higher than it was during the first half of the season. Now you take that route participation and you combine it with his target share from week fifteen, yeah, he could be usable down the stretch over the next two weeks of the fantasy football season, and New England, for the record, has the third best two week schedule for tight ends according to adjusted Fantasy points allowed. Ad Joe Flacco So one of the great things about Flacco in this Browns offense is that he's not afraid to throw it deep.

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Speaker 2: Flacco's now started.

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Speaker 1: Three games and in those games he's had average depth of targets of eleven and a half seven point one to nine point one that's according to Fantasy Life, his nine point two to a dot is half a yard higher than Deshaun Watson's was. It's more than a full yard higher than the other backups in that offense. Now, Flacco's averaged seventeen point eight points per game in his three starts, but it should be noted that he's faced three top half matchups by adjusted points allowed. Here's the thing, though, In weeks Exox Cleveland gets Houston, the Texans rank as the sixth most favorable matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. So this week I don't mind Joe Flacco as a streamer, as crazy as that sounds.

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Speaker 2: In the year twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: Three, add Tyler Boyd. Jamar Chase is a shot to miss some time with his shoulder injury. That can Nitt will push about twenty six twenty seven percent of Cincinnati's targets around that offense, and one player who could benefit is Tyler Boyd. Now, I understand that Tyler Boyd doesn't play the same type of wide receiver that Jamar Chase plays. They're not the same type of receiver at all. But in Week sixteen, he gets the Steelers Pittsburgh's been arguably the worst team in football against slot players this year. They've given up by far the highest yards per route run to slot players, and Boyd's lined up in the slot on eighty five percent of his snaps this season. So even a small increase in target share for Boyd can make him worthwhile. Here in Week sixteen, and he's still out there and over half of Yahoo leagues.

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Speaker 2: Add Michael Wilson.

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Speaker 1: So, Michael Wilson saw his first action since Week ten this past weekend, and he didn't do a whole lot. He failed to record a catch, He only had three targets. It was a seven point nine percent target share. That's not great, But.

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Speaker 2: Here's the good news.

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Speaker 1: Michael Wilson ran a route on eighty eight percent of Arizona's dropbacks. And Marquise Brown is dealing with this heel injury. You may not be able to trust Wilson in Week sixteen, but let's say that he shows up.

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Speaker 2: Let's say he has.

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Speaker 1: A good game in Week seventeen, he gets a very favorable matchup against Philadelphia. In deeper leagues, you might be able to use him. Add the Denver Broncos defense. There are so many quarterback injuries across the league, It's not that difficult to find a streaming defense. There's a lot of them out there. I'm calling out the Broncos here though, because not only did they get New England this week, but then they get LA the Chargers in Week seventeen. Denver's a six point home favorite this weekend in a game according to Handles Sportsbook that has a thirty four and a half point over under, and then East and Stick more than likely is going to be starting for LA next week against Denver, and Denver as a unit has played much better defensively during the second half of the season. I know they had a tough Week fifteen against a good offense in Detroit, but they finish as a top six defense in Fantasy football and five of their six games prior to that contest. You can probably ride the Denver Broncos defense through the end of the season. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all ofby for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't fret to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB and make sure you're following Late Round Fantasy Football on Instagram at Late Round deff, and then make sure you're subscribed to YouTube at YouTube dot com slash at Laterounddeff. Thanks everyone, talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Ten Trends episode