445: Week 10 Matchups

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host J J. Zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyaeson, the editor in chief at FanDuel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode four hundred and forty five of the Late Round podcast with many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thank you all for tuning in. The matchup show Advice turned around in week nine. I was right to be high on Kirk, Cousins, Drew Brees and Drew Locke, and Ryan Tannehill, who I didn't like, had his second worst performance of the season. I was wrong to think the Chiefs would get things going with their running backs, but I was right to be into JD. Mckissick's receiving upside last week. Jerry Judy had a big day that was good to see, and Darius Slayton didn't do a whole lot, which I talked about. The biggest miss was easily Christian Kirk. I was afraid of his big playability against the defense that had been decent against big plays, but I was totally in coompletely wrong. It was a pretty good week overall, though. Before getting to players, that I like more and less in the consensus. This week, I want to send one more reminder about the FANDUL Podcast Network Listener League for the Masters. It's a rake free contest and it's a five dollars entry with a one thousand dollars prize pool. To enter, visit fandule dot Com Slash League slash PGA Listener League. Eligibility restrictions apply. Let's kick things off this week with Jared Goff. It's really hard to not love his spot. In week ten, he's facing a Seahawks team that ranks worse than adjusted Fantasy points allow to quarterbacks. They've allowed seven point one more points to be scored on them per game to opposing passers versus those quarterback season long averages. Part of the reason for that, though, is that they don't generate a whole lot of pressure. They've been below average and pressure rate, and that matches up well against the Rams team that's been one of the best at stopping pressure according to Established Runs Pass Thorman, who's at pat Underscore Thorman on Twitter great guy. He tweeted and showed that no team has been involved in more higher scoring games this year than the Seahawks. Seattle games have averaged almost sixty five points per game. The team in second Green Bay is at fifty seven points. This game against the Rams is a nice fifty five and a half point over under a cord in a Fandals sportsbook, we should expect scoring, and if there's going to be scoring, Jared Goff is going to be part of that now. Earlier in the week I mentioned Baker Mayfield as a top streamer this week. I still think he's a good option, but I've cold on the matchup just a little bit. He's still fine. I just think that others are in that same tier, one of those others being Derek Carr. The Raiders get the Broncos this week in Vegas has the fourth highest implied team total on the slate. Denver's been the seventh most advantageous matchup this year in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position as well. So I think that Car works this week, and then in that same game you could go to Drew Locke too. He's riskier than Car or even may Field as a streamer, but Vegas is completely average as a matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed, And like I mentioned, on the ten Trends episode yesterday, Drew Lock is throwing a deep at a really really high rate, and Vegas ranks in the top ten and big play passes allowed, so we could see a scenario where his high variant style pays off, sort of like we saw last week. But I'd be playing Mayfield and car over Drew Lock, and I think two is a little bit more intriguing too. Now on the flip side, I'm not very into Teddy Bridgewater. I talked about this with Drew Brees a little bit last week. But Tampa Bay has been a tougher matchup for teams because they can pressure opposing quarterbacks. That's gonna help their secondary. It's similar to what Pittsburgh's been able to do at a high level. Two. That's why Breeze was undervalued because the Saints could handle that. I'm not sure the Panthers can. They've been below average and pressure rate allowed this year. And even though Teddy threw for over three hundred and sixty yards the last time this team faced Tampa Bay, he was still sacked five times and he still posted fewer than nine Fantasy points. Just that there are better options this week and for similar reasons. I don't really love Joe Burrow. The Bengals haven't been good at protecting Burrow this year, and Pittsburgh has had by far the highest pressure rate in football. I just see plays like this as super high variance, and when the ceiling probably isn't that high, it's just not worth the risk. So we know Zach Moss is the goal line guy for Buffalo Josh Allen aside, but I think what's not being talked about enough is the fact that he's basically been seeing the same amount of work through the air as Devin Singletary has. He's not just some early down player who sees goal line work and then Singletary just gets all the receiving work. That's not how it's working. Over the last three weeks, Singletary has just three more targets than Zach Moss, or one target per game. Meanwhile, this past week we saw Mosquet eighty two percent of the team's running back crushes, and that's a number that I've talked about on this show. It's been gradually rising week over week. The reason I'm bringing this up is because I just think that the gap between Moss and Singer needs to be wider and I like Moss this week against the Cardinals. It's a game with a high over under and Arizona's been the eleventh best matchup for oposing running backs this year and adjusted points allowed, so I think Moss is a viable RB two play given the state of the position. And then similar to that is the situation in the Tampa Bay backfield. I talked about this at length on the fifteen Transactions episode earlier this week, so I won't bring all of that back up, but Ronald Jones is way below Leonard Fournette and rankings this week, I think that gap should be smaller. Caroline has been a team that you can run on this year, ranking sixth worst and adjusted points allowed to running backs, and the Bucks are four and a half point favorites, so we should see a neutral to positive script for this Tampa Bay offense. That means Rojo could see more work as long as he doesn't fumble the ball away, so you can play him in my opinion, if you need an RB two this week. With all the issues at running back, we've got a Klin Blage revenge game, folks. As long as the injuries aligned for the Chargers. In Blage this week. I think he's in play as a flex. He looked pretty good last week and he had a sixty two and a half percent running back rush share to go along with a seven point three percent target share. Miami's an average matchup, but it's up to find potential volume ranked as low as Belage is ranked. This week, my deeplayed dart throw of the week is Chris Thompson. One thing that I don't think has been talked about enough this week is that Thompson returned to action last week, and in that game against Houston, he saw ten and a half percent of Jacksonville's targets. He had four of the six backfield targets for Jacksonville. I'd expect the Jags to take a run heavy approach against green Bay for a lot of reasons this week, so James Robinson is absolutely a good play. I'm just prepared for green Bay to go up, which could lead to Chris Thompson being on the field more than James Robinson. The Packers are twelve and a half point favorites. This is a complete dart throw play, though I hope none of you would have to use Chris Thompson but he's sort of interesting. After seeing how the receiving work was divvied up last week in that Jacksonville backfield, I didn't see a lot that I disagreed with on the negative side of things in rankings this week. And I don't want to sit here and say, don't start this player if I don't really believe in it. So let's just move on to wide receivers, where things are pretty interesting this week. Now. I know I said bad things about Joe Burrow earlier, and I do think that he's a risky play, but Tyler Boyd in that matchup against the Steelers, he's not. Boyd's been great this year out of the slot. Only Cede Lamb has more slot targets than Tyler Boyd, according to Pro Football Focus. Well, the Steelers a season have continued to play poorly against that area of the field. That's been the case for years, but only Cleveland has seen a higher percentage of targets go to the slot than Pittsburgh has this year. Boyd is ranked too low at wide receiver twenty eight this week. John Brown's coming off a game where he saw twenty nine percent of the team's targets. He had almost one hundred yards, and now he gets an above average matchup in a game with one of the highest over runders on the week. In other words, he's a good play this week, and I think he's ranked way too low over on Fantasy pros. That's it, and so is Jalen Rager. The last time we saw this Eagles team, Reger wasn't unbelievable from a production standpoint, I get it, but he didn't find the end zone and he did have a target share over twenty three percent. Now he gets a Giants team that's been an above average matchup in terms of adjusted points allowed to wide receivers, and cornerback James Bradberry is probably gonna see Travis Folgum this week. So I think he's a solid enough wide receiver three, but he's being ranked as a wide receiver five. Give me all the Jalen Rager. Josh Reynolds has averaged a sixteen point two percent target chair per game over his last six contests, and over his last two that numbers twenty one percent. Seattle's been horrific against wide receivers this season. They're allowing over twenty more points per game to team wide receivers versus those team season long averages. Considering that, I think Reynolds works as a deeper sleeper this week. Now, on the other side of things, I don't like wide receivers this week with the first name DJ, I generally hate people who go by initials for their first name. DJ. Chark is coming off a huge game where he saw a monster target share, but he gets the Packers this week, which means he'll probably face off against jay Ra Alexander. Among relevant corners, Alexander has allowed the third fewest yards per snap this season. He's tied with Jalen Ramsey. That's all according to PFF. You'll have to monitor alexander status because he did have a concussion in their last game. But if he plays, Chark gets a downgrade. And while you might not be able to bench Chark, I think there are reasons that you could possibly bench DJ Moore this week. The emergence of Curtis Samuel has hurt more. Samuel has had a target share of almost twenty one percent over his last three games. That number was seven percentage points lower during his five games prior with DJ Moore, his target chair per game was twenty four point two percent to start the year. That's dropped by over eight percent over his last three. The three were Samuel's seen an uptick. I don't absolutely love the matchup for the Carolina passing attack this week either, which is what I talked about earlier with Teddy Bridgewater. That means that Moore is a bit of a risk. I talked about Austin Hooper on the fifteen Transaction Show, and I like him this week in that game against Houston, he was averaging about a twenty percent target share per game before getting appendicitis, and now there's no OBJ in that Browns lineup, I think we could see a nice little uptick and volume for Hooper. So not only is his rest of season schedule looking good, I think he's a low end tight end one this week against Houston, and Houston's an above average matchup. So there's probably no Jack Doyle this week for Indianapolis because of a concussion, and that means that we're gonna see Trey Burton and my guy mo Aali Cox get featured a little bit more for the Colts. Burton is the safer streaming option, but I think Ali Cox brings more upside. Mack ended up running sixteen routes to Burton's twenty three last week when Doyle went down. But he's just so freaking efficient. He leads all tight ends across the league and yards per route run right now and even last week he caught three of three targets for forty three yards. I think mo Aali Cox is a great deer play this week, but Burton is probably the safer option now. Just to reiterate what I said on the fifteen Transaction Show, Minnesota is in play as a defensive streamer this week. Chicago has allowed three straight top eight performances to opposing defenses. They've been average and sack rate allowed the game. As a low over under, the Vikings are favorites. They fit the process for a defensive streamer, and so does Philadelphia. Each week I overlay pressure rate versus pressure rate allowed to help find intriguing matchups. The Steelers almost always have a huge advantage because of how well their defense plays, but the second best advantage this week is for the Eagles over the Giants. The Giants have been pretty bad at protecting Daniel Jones and the Eagles are sixth in the NFL and pressure rate we know Daniel Jones' turnover friendly, and I think that we could see some of that come out against the Eagles off of their buy. That's going to do it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be out. You never forgot to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.