692: Mailbag 10/14/22

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Speaker 1: This is the latest with your host JJ zacher Retha j J Zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachar Eason in this episode six hundred and ninety two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. One of the most interesting stories of this fantasy football season is something that I talked about in the ten Trends episode earlier this week. It's Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes. It's those four quarterbacks separating themselves so far from the pack they become insanely valuable in single quarterback fantasy football. I've written a lot about the quarterback position in fantasy It's how I got my start in this industry. It's how the Late Round branding was born. So let's talk about this phenomenon a little bit. To reiterate some of the stuff that I said on the ten Trends episode. Those four quarterbacks are giving you a bigger edge so far through five weeks than any other group of four have given you basically in fantasy football history. That's not compared to how those other quarterbacks performed through five weeks. Though. What I'm saying is if this continues. More on that in a second. Now, I've mostly backed away from the late round quarterback strategy over the last few years. It hasn't been as necessary. I've podcasted about this shift in quarterback. I've written about it. I broke it down in detail in the Late Round Draft Guide. Quarterback has become more predictable in fantasy football. And by predictable I mean the market has done a really good job in recent years at picking out which quarterbacks are going to be good. Truthfully, the actual point scored edge that top quarterbacks have given you versus replacement level quarterbacks hasn't dramatically changed. What has dramatically changed is that the market has finally realized, basically since Lamar Jackson's MVP season, that rushing is important in fantasy football, that mobile quarterbacks matter, and so there are you were late round breakouts. That then drives up the need to get a quarterback early because there's still some edge being had at quarterback. The difference so far in twenty twenty two versus these other seasons is that there's this cluster of quarterbacks who are quite literally breaking fantasy football. There's a group of four who are providing such a significant edge over the rest of their position, and that's just driven teams to the top of their league standings. But here's the question I want to pose, is it really that different? Like I said, when I talked about how the top four quarterbacks were giving you this huge edge in points scored, I compared that to how quarterbacks historically had done across the entire season. That's not really an apples to apples comparison, and apples to apples comparison would be to see if we've seen this type of thing happen across the first five weeks of the season. So I dug into that question. I looked at every season since twenty eleven, and I first analyzed specifically weeks one through five. So after the first five weeks of the season, we have some sort of rankings list or how quarterbacks rank after five weeks in points per game. This year, for example, Josh Allen is the QB one in points per game with twenty nine point three points per contest. For the record, that's not the best points per game that we've seen from a QB one after five weeks over the last decade. QB two this year is at twenty six points, QB three, twenty five point eight, and so on. I did that for every year since twenty eleven. I removed the names. I simply focus on how the QB one was scoring, how the QB two was scoring, et cetera. Now I wanted to compare that to some baseline. Baselines are really hard to find in fantasy football. Finding the replacement level player is no easy task. But how I defined baseline for this is pretty straightforward. I just looked at how each quarterback was performing against the average of QB ten to QB fourteen. I'm not comparing across positions here. I'm simply looking at quarterback. So being precise with a baseline doesn't matter that much because this is all relative. We're not comparing how well a quarterback is doing versus his position to how well a running back is doing versus his position. But I chose a baseline that makes sense for a twelve team league. If you're looking at QB ten to QB fourteen and the average of those quarterbacks scored, you're likely capturing the worst hypothetical starter in a twelve team league. I understand that some leagues will have far worse quarterback play in a fantasy lineup. Some leagues won't, but it's still an intuitive baseline for an analysis like this. So we've got each quarterback and how well they scored from weeks one to five, and now we have a baseline to compare that number two. So, for example, Josh Allen twenty nine point three points per game this year. This season, the QB ten to QB fourteen has averaged sixteen and a half points per game. So the difference between Allen and that baseline is a staggering twelve point eight fantasy points. Now, that's actually not the largest difference that we've seen through five weeks from a QB one versus baseline. That happened in two twenty thirteen, actually when Peyton Manning averaged thirty one points per game to start the year. But alan start is the second best start by a QB one versus his baseline. Our QB two right now is Lamar Jackson. Jackson scored twenty six points per game. That's nine and a half points better than the baseline. That's also the second best differential that we've seen since twenty eleven from a QB two. Now, as you go down the list, you notice that at each individual quarterback spot, we've seen this before. The differences that we're seeing it all happen in one season. Let me put it this way. The average difference between QB one to the baseline from twenty eleven to twenty twenty one, so excluding this year, has been eight point one points. So you have a QB one from a random season versus a baseline from a random season. The average that we've seen over the last decade has been eight point one points. This year, Like I said, Josh Allen versus his baseline is twelve point eight. That's a pretty significant difference. When it comes to QB two versus the baseline, from twenty eleven to twenty twenty one, the difference has been seven and a half points on average. This year it's nine point five. At QB three, the average has been six point nine. This year, it's nine point three. At QB four, the difference has been five point nine. This year, it's eight point one. To put that all another way, those four quarterbacks are out performing the baseline at a way better rate than what we typically see. But make no mistake, on an individual level, we've seen this before. We just haven't seen it happen with four quarterbacks like this, and then the QB five hits from twenty eleven to twenty twenty one, the QB five versus the baseline has seen a difference of five point eight points scored per game this year. That numbers three point three. That's where the dropoff is occurring this year. That dropoff, though, has happened in different spots through the years. This year it's after QB four. So the question then is how sustainable is this. We've seen it happen before on an individual level. We saw Peyton Manning do better than how Josh Allen is doing this year. But how did those quarterbacks perform after Week five? Like go back to Peyton Manning. He had thirty one points per game through five weeks and twenty thirteen when he threw fifty five touchdown passes. He had twenty passing touchdowns through five games. What happened after that? You probably know the answer to this, but he fell off. It's not that he was bad for fantasy purposes, But after Week five Manning averaged twenty three point one fantasy points per game. And we see this happen frequently. The question we're asking here is what happens after week five with these quarterbacks. That's what we're curious about here, right, How sustainable has this type of production been Historically? During this timeframe of twenty eleven to twenty twenty one, we've seen forty four instances where a quarterback was outperforming his baseline by five or more points after five weeks. Now, that number five is completely arbitrary. I could look at four, I could look at six, but I chose five to give us a solid sample of quarterbacks who were playing well above expectation or at least playing well above the rest of their position. Now, of those forty four, forty two of them were able to play at least ten games after week five. We had Dak Prescott get hurt in twenty twenty, we had Deshaun Watson get hurt in twenty seventeen, so we can throw them out of our sample because they didn't play the second half of the season. Of the forty two quarterbacks, guess how many quarterbacks saw an increase in points per game from the front half of the year to the back half. So an increase in points per game after dominating weeks one through five three of the forty two did. Ninety three percent of these elite quarterbacks after week five saw their points per game drop. Now that's not that surprising, considering they're playing out of their minds to start the year, but it sheds light to working with small sample sizes. In our group of forty two quarterbacks who were awesome across the first five weeks, the average across the group was that they saw eighty one percent of their week one to week five performance after week five. Let me phrase that another way, Josh Allen right now, twenty nine point three points per game in a standard league, eighty one percent of twenty nine point three is twenty three point seven. So, strictly based on recent history and nothing more, twenty three point seven is the points per game number that we might expect from Allen from here on out. Clearly, that's just an average. He may be at ninety eight percent, maybe ninety five percent of his current points per game. All I'm doing here is explaining what's happened on average historically. And let's be real, if everything maintains with these baseline players, scoring twenty three point seven points per game is still really really good. It's just not nearly the same type of performance that we've seen thus far. I also don't think that this means that Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, or Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes. I don't think this means that they're sell candidates. A probable drop in points per game doesn't mean the player isn't good for fantasy. You still have to look at how the market feel about these players. But it's true that we do generally see something along these lines each year. It's just not as dramatic as it's been this season because the mid range qb wons this year really aren't great. That drop off typically occurs a lot earlier. We have four quarterbacks who are crushing it, when historically we might just get one or two of them. And the final point that I need to make with all this ties back to what I said at the beginning. These were all non late round quarterbacks. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes were not drafted late. In the past, we've often seen these elite quarterbacks through five weeks come from the late rounds. It plays directly into the idea that I've been trying to get across over the last few years that the market has gotten smarter. That's the real reason the late round quarterback strategy has completely morphed. Before we getting to the mailbag questions this week, I want to remind you about the GMC Sierra Mountain Climber Pickham, a free to play contest series that gives you a chance to win a sheriff ten thousand dollars in Fandle site credit every Sunday courtesy a GMC. Here's how it works. Every Sunday during the NFL season, you'll have a chance to answer questions based on the day's one PM and four twenty five PM games. The more questions you answer correctly, the higher up the mountain you'll move. If during any week you answer every question correctly for a perfect score, you'll reach the summit and win your share of ten thousand dollars in site credit. The contest series is now live, so head tofandle dot com Slash Free Slash Contest slash GMC to start climbing the mountain. The first question this week is from Patreon is from LP. It says, hey JJ, thanks for all you do. No problem one player, I haven't seen you talk a ton about is Devin DuVernay. Maybe I'm biased from playing in a league with return yardage scoring, but I feel like he's been a pretty safe floor with a great ceiling, and I've been playing him over guys like Thelan and Traves etn. Is he a player that you see value in rest of season, especially with Bateman's recent injury trouble. I mean, let's keep in mind that Bateman didn't play last week, and he was injured against Buffalo. I'm not sure i'd call Devin Duverna a high floor play. Yes, he was wide receiver nine in Week one, but he caught two touchdowns on four targets. He's had one touchdown since, and he's ranked higher than wide receiver forty two just once. Over his last four in PPR leagues, he's been wide receiver seventy two, forty six, forty two, and twenty six. And in that game as wide receiver twenty six, he was playing without Rashod Bateman. That was a more predictable performance. He had a target share of twenty six percent. So as long as Bateman is out, sure Duverne is a decent play. But with Bateman, he doesn't have a very good floor. He averaged a target share per game rate of eleven and a half percent in weeks one through four. That's not going to cut it most weeks. The next question is from twitters from at f F underscore Jacob White, and it says, how should we value Travis Etn? Should we be worried that he hasn't taken over the backfield yet? Is he startable? Thanks? JJ? This is a classic case of coaching decisions driving the running back position in fantasy. If the Jags coaching staff doesn't want to give Travis Etn the rock, then he's gonna suffer in Fantasy flat out. But he probably should see the ball more in that offense. He's been better than James Robinson in every efficiency metric. I had Robinson as a cell in the fifteen Transaction Show a couple of weeks ago, because not only was Jacksonville seeing amazing game scripts for him, but his secondary numbers really weren't looking good and they still aren't. According to number fires Expected Points model, among fifty plus rush attempt running backs, James Robinson is second worst than success rate that measures the percentage of runs that resulted in positive expected points gains. Only Najie Harris is worse. Cam Akers and Joe Mixon are right ahead at James Robinson, and everyone is trashing those three running backs. Meanwhile, Travis Etn has a success rate that's twelve percentage points higher. That's very, very significant. I want James Robinson to be good because he worked hard to come back from a devastating injury, but he was getting by on opportunity earlier this season, And if the coaching staff recognizes all this, then Etn could definitely get more work and that would hurt Robinson. So I sort of lean by with Travis Etn right now in case that shift happens. But again, this kind of stuff always comes down to a coaching decision. A player could be ineffective and still see the ball, and seeing the ball is what matters most in fantasy football. This next question is from Lefty Joe from Patreon and says, hey, hey, JJ, Josh Jacobs number nine, rest of season. I'm having trust issues. Please help me overcome them. So my rest of season rankings are over on Patreon. Josh Jacobs right now is in the top ten in those rest of season rankings, but he's really in a big tier of players, so technically he could fall back to like fourteenth overall. Now, I don't want people to necessarily get caught up on that number because you don't have context for who he's ahead or who he's behind. What I do think is important to get across is some I had mentioned on this show last week. I don't think people fully recognize how amazing Josh Jacobs usage has been, and it's now been consistent. He's been a complete bell coow for the Raiders, and this isn't just a one week thing. It's been three weeks of Josh Jacobs seeing amazing work in that offense as a true bell cow, and he's producing. He's averaged twenty six and a half PPERO points per game over his last three. Anytime I get questions about rest of season rankings, I think a good exercise for the person asking that question is to ask themselves who should be ranked ahead of him? Who should be ranked ahead of Josh Jacobs and not players in his same tier, because tears to me mean that the players are relatively interchangeable in rank. He's in a tier with guys like Kelsey Mixon Fournette. I'm saying below him in a separate tier, especially at running back. Are you gonna take Aaron Jones over Josh Jacobs, Alvin Kamara, DeAndre Swift? I mean, even Dalvin Cook. You could argue very strongly as a worse rest of season back than Josh Jacobs because of the snapshare and the injury. Is it bold to have Jacobs in a tier with someone like Mixin, Fournette, Eckler. Maybe maybe that's what the market says, but we have to be somewhat reactive here. Maybe he reverts back to his week one, week two usage, but it's certainly not trending that way. And I'm an aggressive fantasy manager too, and I practice what I preach. You can absolutely play it more safe than I would, But all signs point to Josh Jacobs being a very good fantasy back from here on out. We have to detach ourselves from how he might have felt before the season started. We're entering week six, we have more evidence, so let's act on it. The next question is from cam Kublam on Twitter, and it says is Alan Robinson droppable at this point? So I think in a lot of leagues he probably is. But one thing I do want to throw out there with Alan Robinson. I think this is really really important. The Rams offensive line is a mess and it's preventing them from really working down the field. Matthew Stafford this season has seen tw two percent of his yards come from fifteen plus air yard throws. That number was almost nineteen percent last year. So far the season, the Rams have faced the Bills, Falcons, Cardinals, forty nine Ers, and Cowboys. According to Pro Football Reference, the Bills are fifteenth in pressure rate, the Cardinals are sixteenth, and by the way, both of those rankings dropped after this past week, but they're still top half in the league. The forty nine Ers their second, the Cowboys their first. The Falcons, though, they're dead last, and guess what. Alan Robinson's only good game this year for fantasy purposes came against the Falcons. The Panthers this week are the Rams' second opponent with a pressure rate in the back half of the league, so we'll see what happens this weekend. I do think that Robinson can be dropped in a lot of leagues, though, because this isn't just all about situation and matchup. He's also not been good, but it's at least something to think about. The last question this week is another one from Patreon. It's from Chris. It says, new listeners to my apologies if I've missed this on a prior episode. I've heard you talk about strategy to gain an edge in fantasy football. Can you expound on this a little bit more? Does the edge come from using specific metrics to identify trends or does it come from drafting a specific way? Loving your work so far, Thank you, Thanks so. This is something that I talked about in a ton of depth in the Late Round Draft guide, and one of the analogies that I used in that guide was with the video game Street Fighter. In Street Fighter, you go head to head against an opponent and use your character to knock out that opponent. You punch, you kick. It's a fighting game that I'm sure a lot of you listening to this you've played it before. But there are also special moves that each character can do. And I'm really just referencing the older Street Fighter games here, by the way, I haven't played the newer ones that much, but you have these special moves that are harder to pull off than a regular punch or a kick. A player who's good at street fighter can continuously use those special moves to knock out their opponents. They can knock them out faster that way. An inexperienced player won't do that as much because it's harder to do. And what an inexperienced player does is they button mash. They just hit a bunch of buttons as fast as they can in order to beat their opponent, as opposed to taking their time to strategically throw a punch, throw a kick, or use a special move. You can sometimes still win when you button mash, just like in fantasy football, you can still win when you go in without a draft strategy and you just pick the right players. But the strategic players, they're the ones who win more sustainably because there's a process, and there's logic and there's reason behind the choices that they make. Strategy allows you to not just increase your chances of hitting on the right players, but it allows you to fall into the right players even if you weren't high on them. It can help you avoid the right players too. I sort of think that someone's approaching fantasy football can be broken into two things, strategy and player evaluation. There's definitely some overlap there, but too many focus on the ladder. They just focus on this guy is good, this guy isn't good. There's more to it than that. There's understanding market dynamics, there's understanding regression. There's having a process. You don't want to be a button masher. That's not sustainable. You want to crush your opponents with a hadukin. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't for it to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Reme'm gonna check out lateround dot com. Otherwise, thank you so much for listening this week. I really appreciate it. Enjoy your weekend, good luck in week six. I'll talk to you next week