774: Mailbag 6/23/23

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacheras j shake Zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode seven hundred and seventy four of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in before get into this week's mailback questions, folks, The Late Round Draft Guide drops in one week, so you have one more week to get the discount and rate of nineteen ninety nine. Next Friday, June thirtieth, that's going to jump to twenty four to ninety nine. The guide includes some deep fantasy football strategy and new market trends that I really haven't talked about in this podcast before. There's a section on players to target, players to avoid in late round dart throws, and my top two hundred rankings are in.

00:00:48
Speaker 2: The guide too.

00:00:49
Speaker 1: The guide is updated weekly through August and sent your email inbox every single week. Those updates are for all the players to target avoid in the late round darts, as well as my rankings list. It's what you need to dominate your drafts this year, so make sure your pre order right now over on lateround dot com. The first question this week is from at fantasy backup too. It says, why aren't replacement level players taken at the same point in drafts? Why don't the QB twelve, RB twenty four, wide receiver thirty six, tight end twelve have roughly similar ADPs? Okay, so when you go into a fantasy draft, there are really two questions you're asking at each position. The first is, of all the players remaining at this position, which one's going to score the most points. Once you answer that question, you then ask how many more points is this player going to score versus the rest of his position. The first question is within the same position, you might like Bijon Robinson this year more than Austin Eckler, so you're drafting Robinson over Eckler. But the second question is essentially value over replacement, and you can compare that across positions. You might like Robinson more than Eckler, but by how much could you pass on running back and still get value in the next round. What if every single season the QB one scored just one more point than the QB two, who scored one more point than the QB three, and so on all the way to QB twenty. Let's say and then pretend everything else was the same. You're in a single quarterback league. The way we project running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, that's no different. It's the same world. You would never draft a quarterback early in this scenario. Ever, the QB one is barely giving you any sort of edge over the rest of the position, So if you're in a twelve team league, you'd likely want a wait at quarterback, and every other team in your league would also want a wait at quarterback. It would be more advantageous in that scenario to get your third, fourth, fifth, sixth running back before getting your quarterback, because with the running back position there's volatility. Your projections aren't going to be perfect. An eighth round running back could hypothetically outperform a second round one.

00:03:03
Speaker 2: That's not gonna happen at quarterback. In this scenario.

00:03:06
Speaker 1: We already know how the quarterbacks are gonna finish, and we already know that the edge that they're gonna give us in points per game is irrelevant, So you might as well take the chance on some running back depth instead of getting even the QB one, because no matter how you measure replacement level, that QB one is not giving you much of an advantage over the rest of the position whatsoever. I know, I know this is not how we draft players. This isn't how it works, but the idea is absolutely how it works. Fantasy football is not a linear game. When we're drafting players, we're thinking about variance, volatility, and how much of an edge these guys are giving our teams versus the rest of their position. Because supply and demand dictates that we need more running backs and wide receivers, it makes total sense to sometimes draft backups before starters at tight end, quarterback, because there are pockets in your draft where the edge that a certain players giving you just is not significant, and when it's not significant, you shouldn't draft that player. Imagine you're in round five. Let's say that you had four quarterbacks who were all projected to be really really good this year, but the rest of the quarterbacks were the exact same They all had similar projections. Are you gonna just take the QB five after those four quarterbacks are off the board just because you need a quarterback?

00:04:25
Speaker 2: Of course not.

00:04:25
Speaker 1: There's no reason to If every other quarterback is projected to perform exactly alike. It makes far more sense to just not draft that position until your final pick. That's why these baselines aren't getting drafted in the same spot. Fantasy football drafts are not linear. This one's from at Armando six' eight two eight two seven to five to. Three so much hype For Darren waller this upcoming. Year what is your projection for the twenty twenty three. SEASON i started this offseason lower On waller THAN i am right now do more research for the draft. Guide he hits a lot on the market related trends that you look for in a player who can exceed his average draft position. Expectation one of those things being that he's the top pass catcher on his team BY. Adp no Other New York giant pass catcher is being drafted ahead Of Darren. Waller that signals to us that he could be in store for a nice target. Chair middle round tight ends like that have exceeded expectation by a much larger margin than middle round tight ends who haven't been their team's top pass. Catcher, now my projections were updated earlier this, Week waller's currently the tight end six within those. Projections he's moving up my rankings just based on all that. Research, now last year was a little rough for his, health but in his three prior seasons he was ad er above a twenty three and a half percent target chair per game. Rate and while his yards per route run did drop a little bit last, year it didn't fall to horrific.

00:05:52
Speaker 2: Levels it was still at one point five to.

00:05:54
Speaker 1: Eight USUALLY i get a little bit more concerned when that tight end yards per route run rate is below one point. Five, NOW i totally understand if you want to go with a late round tight end approach this year instead of getting someone Like, waller just give an opportunity.

00:06:07
Speaker 2: Cost but there are things pointing in his.

00:06:10
Speaker 1: Favor the nice questions from At Hey david underscore Ff it, says are you more open to handcuffing running backs and dynasty leagues with deep benches where the waiver wire is very?

00:06:21
Speaker 2: Thin how about quarterbacks and a superflex.

00:06:24
Speaker 1: League i'm far more inclined to do it at running back than at. QUARTERBACK i think having high end backup quarterbacks and super flex leagues totally, fine but you're far from guaranteed good production from a random backup. Quarterback talent drives that position more so than at running back by, far which means that running back handcuffs can hypothetically perform better than quarterback handcuffs. Would but the topic of handcuffing is always a tough one to talk about because definitions.

00:06:51
Speaker 2: Are all over the.

00:06:52
Speaker 1: Place how are you defining a? Handcuff Is Jalen warren a, handcuff BECAUSE i would not consider him a. Handcuff he's gonna see work in The steelers offense even When Naji harris is. Healthy is Samajp ryan a? HANDCUFF i don't think anyone would consider him. THAT a true handcuff to me is someone who's worthless without an. INJURY i think it's more than fine to get The Jalen warren type players who project to be maybe a flex play every once in a, while but have the upside to be a starting running back with an. INJURY i think you can do that in redraft. Leagues all of the handcuff work That i've done in the, past and this is like five or six years ago at this, point it's been around the guys who aren't getting work without an injury to their, starter and typically when those guys are called upon when they finally get, work they don't do as well as we think they're backups for a, reason but most running back, backups especially higher end, ones they should be rostered in. Dynasty, yes, NOW i don't necessarily need to target my own running backs. Backups if my team is really, good If i'm in good, shape maybe that's fine because it's a floor, play it's a safety, play it's. Insurance the ceiling play would be to get backups for running backs not on my fantasy, team because then if an injury happens to their, starter you all of a sudden have another viable running back on your. Roster it's the upside, play AND i usually chase. Upside that's the way THAT i play fantasy, football and this is basically the way THAT i handle. Handcuffs halfway through a redraft, season it's usually not necessary to force yourself to trade for and overspend for a handcuff on your. Team like if you Have Nase, harris don't overspend For Jalen. Warren Jalen warren's value is the same whether you Have Naji harris or. NOT i know that people are gonna get angry about, that but it's. True it's just a matter if you look at it from an upside perspective or a floor. Perspective if your team's in great shape and you want some, insurance sure go Get Jalen warren if you Have Naji. Harris but if your team needs a little bit more, volatility Get Jalen warren if you don't Have Naji. Harris and for, QUARTERBACK i wouldn't be getting backups unless they're, young have a shot to, start or have proven to be good fantasy assets at one point in their, career like someone Like Gardner minshew.

00:09:08
Speaker 2: Is, fine he might get a.

00:09:10
Speaker 1: Shot we don't know what's gonna happen With Anthony, richardson But i'm not gonna roster someone Like Davis mills Or Easton stick unless you're in some ultra ultra deep. League the last question this week is from At Fantasy. Boosters it says CURRENT adp has a seemingly, brighter slash hopeful pull of running backs in the dead zone for twenty twenty. Three what is your perception of this range of running backs this season and do you think it will hold as we move through the. Summer we honestly do this every single. Year every year we tell ourselves that this, season this, season the running backs out of the dead zone are actually, good and then they. Underperform i've done episodes on the running back dead zone in the, past AND i talk about it at length in The late round draft. Guide to, me the dead zone is an area of your fantasy draft where two things. Happen running back hit rates drop and wide receiver hit rates tend to be. Better let's just focus on the first, part. Though let's look at running back hit. Rates because they do, drop they get. Worse it's not that every running back is gonna, fail but, collectively backs out of the dead zone don't perform much, better if at, all then backs right after the dead. Zone in, fact according to THE adp data THAT i work with from my fantasy, league round seven running backs have provided more of a ceiling since twenty eleven than round four. Ones now MY eightp source of my fantasy, league it says that around pick thirty of a twelve team league through pick seventy two is generally where these dead zone running backs. Live that's not going to be the same from one platform to the. Next it's not gonna be. Identical like if you're doing best ball drafts right now On, underdog THEIR adp is super wide receiver. Heavy so the dead zone is, different but the dead zone exists in every every single. DRAFT i think this is very key to. Understand you just have to start to think about it. Differently NOW i keep mentioning how hit rates, drop which they, do but the hit rates drop not from an OVERALL adp. Perspective it's not always pick thirty to pick seventy. Two they drop from a positional perspective. Too after about THE rb twelve gets, drafted conveniently THE rb, twelve you start to see worse hit rates from running. Backs so On, underdog for, instance THE rb fifteen might go later than where THE rb fifteen is going to go in your home, league but THAT rb fifteen is still a worse bet to make compared to THE rb, thirty just in terms of the point advantage that you're. Gaining it's just that it's a lot easier to draft that dead zone running back on a platform Like, underdog where the opportunity cost is much lower because THAT rb fifteen is going. Later, now imagine a world where THE rb fifteen got drafted in the middle of round, two like it was a super running back heavy. Draft that running back doesn't really escape the dead zone because he's going in round. Two all of a, sudden your opportunity cost just. Changes it gets. Greater it's greater when you take that running back in round two as opposed to round, six and his hit rate historically has not been nearly as good as even just THE rb, Twelve so he's still technically part of this dead zone. Area it's just that in that particular home league draft where he goes in round, two the dead zone is, earlier and it's a bigger deal because opportunity costs is a lot. Greater my point with all this is to say that the running back dead zone is going to exist to some degree in every single draft because running back hit rates become much flatter around that transition FROM rb one TO rb, two from top twelve running backs to the next. Twelve so don't necessarily just look at OVERALL adp when you're searching for the dead zone. Backs look at running back POSITIONAL, adp and, yeah there are some STANDARD rb twos this year that look like decent. BETS i think we're shot white makes. Sense Jamior gibbs is going to be on a lot of my, teams AND i get into why in The Draft.

00:13:05
Speaker 2: Guide BUT i got a very very similar question to.

00:13:08
Speaker 1: This last, year and Only Josh, Jacobs Breise, hall And Damian pierce really emerge from the dead. Zone two of those guys were, rookies which is Something i've noticed that you should be looking for with your dead zone. Backs, now according to the data THAT i work, with we had ten players not give you much of an edge at all from that. Range last year you had guys Like Zeke David, Montgomery Antonio, GIBSON. Jk, DOBBINS Aj, Dillon Clyde, Edwards hilaire Cam, Akers Elijah. Mitchell people thought that the dead zone last year looked. Good it clearly did not come to. Fruition but don't think that every running back out of the dead zone is. Doomed that's not how this. Works this is about. Probability there are going to be running backs who come out of the dead zone who are. Effective there are every single. Year but market trends tell us that it's usually a pretty rough place to find high ceiling. Players you're just as well off waiting a round or two to find those. Players AND i would bet that this year is going to be no. Different we'll see some guys who break, out but the hit rates still look pretty, poor at least when it comes to.

00:14:13
Speaker 2: Ceiling that's it for today's, show though thanks to all of you for.

00:14:17
Speaker 1: Listening if you get subscribed to The Late Round Fantasy football, podcast make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be, found and to follow me On twitter At Late ROUND.

00:14:26
Speaker 2: Qb thanks for listening to.

00:14:27
Speaker 1: Everyone remember to pre order that draft guy because next week the price does go. Up but enjoy your weekend And i'll talk to you next.

00:14:34
Speaker 2: Week