366: Mailbag 4/17/20

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha J J. Zacher reson What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachareson, the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com in this episode three hundred and sixty six of the Late Round podcast many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. I got a ton of questions this week about what's gonna happen to the NFL this year, How a delay or even cancelation impacts players, how it impacts contracts. The list goes on and on, and guys, I have to be honest with you for about ninety five percent of those questions. I have no freaking idea. I don't know what's gonna happen, and I can't pretend to know what's gonna happen. There are so many directions that this could go in, and there are so many possibilities surrounding how the NFL handles this twenty twenty season and beyond. It wouldn't be fair for me to sit on this show and give you information and opinions that are complete guesses. That's not how I roll. All I can offer up is what I know from a football perspective and how it relates to performance. We know players need reps to get better, especially at positions like wide receiver and tight end, so adjust accordingly. I'd care less about a running back not getting training camp reps than I would a wide receiver or a tight end, where it's more difficult to transition to the pros. Maybe the answer to your specific question is to not devalue young or rookie running backs, but maybe be a little bit less bullish on the pass catchers. Maybe that's all I need to say. But when it comes to whether or not the season's gonna happen, how a canceled season impacts contracts, what it means for the twenty twenty one NFL Draft, I don't know, Like a lot of things in life right now, there are just loads and loads of unknowns. Now. Before I get into the questions this week, let's talk some esports. 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He also played with Nikhil Harry as a junior, so we really only have one year of reliable data. Is it fair to hold a small sample size against Ayuk when you're evaluating him? Does situation compared to any other players in recent years? Thanks Brian, So I think it's a little unfair to say that we only have one year of reliable data on Brandon Ayuk. We have four years of reliable data. It's just that he was only productive in one of those seasons. There are plenty of wide receivers who play behind or play with professional wide receivers and they have just one year of good production as a result. But we don't say that they only have one reliable year of data. We say that they broke out late and they weren't able to overcome the talent on their own team. I don't see why that's any different for Ayuk, and it's why his profile is concerning. Now. I think he can be fine, but from what I've read and what I understand, he didn't go to JUCO for something like academic issues or anything. He did it because coming out of high school he played a little bit of defense, or at least that's what I've read, and he wasn't a highly recruited player. Then he does well in JUCO, then he goes to Arizona State, isn't able to produce significantly in year one, and then really breaks out during his second year there. That one year of data is important, sure, but because of his path, we shouldn't ignore everything outside that year. You have to ask why he couldn't compete with Nikhil Harry. You have to ask why he wasn't able to play at a bigger school until he was a junior, and analytically you have to ding a player like that because you'd much rather have a wide receiver who breaks out early and is good throughout the entire process than one who's just good at the end. And this isn't me saying that Ayuk is some scrub. You guys can check my rankings. I don't think he's terrible. I just think there's concerns to his profile, and those concerns aren't there for others. This asked questions from at James Underscore AG one. If you could know the twenty twenty outcome for one running back, wide receiver, and tight end, who would you pick? I think this is a great question, and I think the answer to this is basically who's got the most ambiguity while also being a higher round pick and someone who would give us information about other players in his offense. So I'm thinking a player with a whi range of outcomes, likely in an offense with a lot of usable fantasy pieces that we might be able to get more information on those players, and someone who's a higher round pick. So using that criteria, I think the answer might be Austin Eckler. That way, we could get a general idea of both pass catching and rushing, and maybe it would help us understand how that backfield ends up being split and the type of target share that would be there for the other pass catchers in the offense. So that's my choice for this question, but I would love to hear what you guys think too. This last question says, hey, JJ loved the show. Don't say thanks? Okay, I wont you had SIG on last week and talked about a wide receiver by committee approach that some teams might take in the future. Would a situation like that be good for fantasy football and analytics or bad? Would it give an advantage to people who did more research? Thanks? So I'd argue the whole wide receiver by committee thing is already happening. The idea behind it is that wide receivers have very particular jobs that teams can use to exploit matchups. So we'll sometimes see games for the Rams, for example, where Cooper Cup might go off, but then the next week it's Robert Woods because they're exploiting a matchup. I definitely think that this gives the researchers a bigger advantage. The game isn't just a oh, this guy gets ten targets every game, You've got to use them. Instead, you're digging more into individual matchups to exploit what that team might do. Now, obviously that assumes rational coaching and that you have to have all the right information. We don't always have that information, but the more the ball gets distributed around in offense, the more research will have to do to predict things correctly. This last question says, can Joe Mixon finish as overall RB one? So let's talk about Joe Mixon. I've seen some people view mix In as a locked in RB one this year, and I thought I'd be in the same boat. But my projections didn't like him as much as I thought that they would. I think a lot of Mixin's season is going to come down to his receiving work. In twenty nineteen, the Bengals had the third lowest target share to running backs, and Mixon ranked thirty fourth at the running back position and target share. I have Mixon projected for a higher target chair in twenty twenty, but it's not so significantly higher to the point where he's in a tier with elite pass catchers elite pass catching running backs, because you still have to weigh the negatives in the projection. The question here, though, is can Joe Mixon finishes the overall RB one, And I guess that he can. Technically, I don't think the chances are super high, but he can with guys like Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott. The list goes on and on. It's unlikely that Joe Mixon will be the RB one, but in order for him to ascend and really become a higher end RB one in fantasy, he absolutely needs that pass catching component. That's the one piece that's bringing him down, and hopefully Joe Burrow can help this. Last question says hey, JJ, hope all is well, Thanks you too. Can you make of the Bills receivers right now? With Diggs? Is he the clear cut number one there? I was just curious what your model thought of Digs and Brown being together, because for me, at least, they have pretty comparable play styles. It also seems that early rankings have Diggs significantly higher than Brown about three to four rounds ahead, Whereas I don't understand that large of a discrepancy. Just wanted to hear your thoughts on this. Thanks Jimmy D. Yeah, so, I talked a little bit about Digs in the free agency podcast that I did last month, But I hate the landing spot. It's really really hard to sell that landing spot as anything good. Not only is Buffalo a pretty run heavy team with a neutral script pass to Russia tempor ratio that's ranked no higher than twentieth in the past two years with Josh Allen. But like you said, they've got some weapons there. Cole Beasley and John Brown aren't going away. Dawson Knox is a nice young tight end. And then on top of that, Diggs has never been a player throughout his career who's demanded a crazy high target share. This is why I had him as a cell candidate earlier in the offseason. The idea of Stefan Diggs always seem better than the performance of Stefan Diggs. He's a really good wide receiver. I think he's an awesome wide receiver, but he only hit a twenty five percent target share once over his five year career, so you can't assume he sees that type of target share in Buffalo. I do think he's a better bet to see more targets than John Brown, like the question is asking, since Brown can be a really effective field stretcher. I bet that Brown sees more down the field targets than Stefan Diggs this year, even though Diggs can do the same thing. They both work well with Josh Allen at the end of the day, but I think this is just a situation to generally avoid in fantasy football. I guess I'd probably be higher on Brown versus his ADP than Diggs just given the cost. But the real winner here, you guys, and the guy to buy into in this offense, Josh Allen. This has questions from at Tubaca. What under the radar rookie running backs are you keeping an eye on? Yeah, I really like this rookie running back class. I think eno Benjamin has the most intriguing production profile of a guy who's gonna outside the top group. But I keep falling more and more in love with Darrynton Evans as a player. He reminds me of Nahim Hines, but imagine nim Hines with more potential for early down work. He could just be more dynamic. So those are the two popped into my head with this question. I really like this running back class and I think that the guys in it are gonna make an impact in the NFL. This ask question says are running back handcuffs more worthwhile in Dynasty or are they less valuable because the landscape is ever changing or some other answer? Love the show, thanks so. Handcuffing and redraft is tough to do for a lot of reasons. I did a study on this a while back, and basically one reason is that we don't always accurately predict who that handcuff is going to be. We also don't realize that injuries aren't happening to top backs in weeks one or two. It's usually way later in the season, meaning you're holding onto a relatively worthless asset for a long period of time before that asset even has a chance. And then, even when handcuffs get it chance. Though there have been some successes that get all the love and fame, tons and tons of handcuffs fail. There's a bias that people have when looking at running back handcuffs in Dynasty, though, because rosters are so much bigger. The holding onto the handcuff thing isn't that big of a deal, so handcuffing is easier, in a more meaningful thing to do. And then there could be some instances where the running back actually does step into the starting role if the other running back leaves, giving that player more value, although that is kind of rare, so are they worthwhile? I think it's fine to get handcuffs in dynasty, and not just for running backs that you have on your roster, but running backs on other teams rosters. Most if not all, handcuffs should be rostered in most dynasty leagues, but I don't think it's completely necessary per se. You still run into the same issues that you'd run into win redraft leagues, like the handcuff not producing when he's called upon, or us not knowing exactly who that handcuff is. This last question is from at the Goose five thousand. Eckler and Drake are my main running backs? Are these sell candidates due to their value spikes? Or do I use their fantasy points to win games? So I don't want to frame this answer as you absolutely should sell Kenyan Drake or you absolutely should sell Austin Eckler. I don't necessarily feel that way but I do think that I'm lower on both of them versus where people are drafting them in startups, even though I think both players are very very good. Now with Eckler, I actually got another question this week that relates to this that says, I'm hearing a lot about how Eckler's receiving touchdown rate will regress, But as the lead back, wouldn't his rushing touchdown opportunity necessarily see a boost? He only had three rushing touchdowns last year. Should we be accounting for greater opportunity for Eckler to score on the ground as the lead back for the Chargers Now, I think this question is why I'm lower on Austin Eckler than the consensuses, which is why I wanted to bring it up. I don't really understand why the assumption is that Austin Eckler is going to be a workhorse. I'm not saying it's not possible. You guys know that. I think in terms of probability, but before Melvin Gordon came back last year, Eckler was seeing about sixty four percent of the team's running back rushes. There were fourteen running backs who hit that mark last year. And when you include pro rated rates, because not all running backs played sixteen games, you've got even more running backs hitting that mark. So Eckler did see a lot more of the team's running back rushes without Melvin Gordon. That's not what I'm saying. I agree there. I'm just noting that his upside on the ground isn't like Nick Chubb. So that's one reason to not go nuts with his rushing touchdown projection, even if he should see some positive regression. This is also under the assumption that the Chargers don't draft a running back. They've got pick thirty seven and seventy one in the draft which could easily go to that position. Maybe they don't. That would be awesome for Austin Eckler, but that's still part of the range of outcomes right now. And then on top of that, to me, the problem with Eckler isn't necessarily touchdown related. It's his receiving production. He's a really good receiving back, but the way they're set right now at quarterback, the team isn't likely going to be very pass heavy moving forward in the short term. I've mentioned this before in the show, but the Chargers have been fairly pass heavy over the last few years, including last year when they rank second in the NFL in neutral script pass to rush ratio, And like I've also talked about on the show, Philip Rivers has really targeted his running backs at a high rate over the last decade. Some of that is due to have a good pass catching personnel, but we shouldn't ignore the quarterback change and how that straight up is going to affect Austin Eckler. I still think he's a really good player in fantasy asset. I just think there are enough red flags surrounding and we're sure he's got a decent sized ceiling if things break his way. But he also has a lot of downside if they do draft a running back like Cam Akers and then they do go more run heavy and don't allow Eckler to thrive as a pass catching back. So that's my take on Eckler. I think it's a fringe RB one in Dynasty, But for example, I took Leonard Fournette over him in a recent Dynasty startup because there just seems to be a little bit more of a short term safety net there. Now. Regarding Kenyan Drake, I think there's concern over Cliff Kingsbury's comments about deploying three running backs throughout the regular season. That's what he said recently, and we don't know what's gonna happen after this year. At least you do have a more secured future with USN Eckler in terms of a contract, though, I do think that the Cardinals are going to get something longer term done with Kenyan Drake. And I should note too that I do think that Drake has mid range RB one upside this year, but his projection isn't giving him automatic RB one production, not at least right now. So you've got two different situations where I can make an argument either way. I guess i'd say I'm slightly lower than the market on both guys. But if you're trying to win in twenty twenty, it's hard for me to say that selling them would be a good idea unless you're selling them for a young back who's locked into a workload that's going to do it. For today's show, thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet subscribe the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found don't forget to follow me on Twitter at late Round QB. And by the way, guys, I've got a pretty fun announcement. Next week for the draft, I'll be doing a live stream with my colleagues Jim Sonis and Brandon Goadola on Fandel's YouTube channel. The plan has to just talk through the picks, talk through their impact, but more importantly, I'll provide some real time projections as well, so when Jerry Judy's drafted, I'll be able to plug it into my system and give you guys a projection right away. Since there's gonna be a ton of fantasy impact on day two. We're actually planning on streaming both Thursday and Friday next week. It should be a lot of fun and I would love it if you guys came and watched and listened. The link is YouTube dot com slash Fandel Videos, so go there, subscribe and don't miss it. But thanks everyone. I hope that you're all staying safe and I'll talk to you on Monday.