1066: 15 Transactions for Week 15

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ zacherth JJ Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode ten sixty six of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I'm really excited that my voice is finally back to normal.

00:00:23
Speaker 2: You don't have to.

00:00:24
Speaker 1: Hear me apologizing for it anymore, though I do apologize in general because people have let me know that my voice is kind.

00:00:30
Speaker 2: Of annoying, so I'm sorry about that. Anyway. It's week fifteen.

00:00:34
Speaker 1: The Fantasy playoffs are here, and I asked Twitter over the weekend if you guys still want me to do buy and sell transactions because trade deadlines they're definitely passing your redraft leagues at this point, and the majority of people told me to just do ads and drops. I've got a hold transaction for you this week too, So over the next three weeks, the three final fifteen transaction shows of the year, I'm just gonna be talking ads, drops and holds. Let's get to these transactions. Add Luthor Burden. Now, I've talked about Luther Burden quite a bit this year, but this is the first time on this show. This fifteen transaction show that I'm doing so with an injured Romadonza because last week when I did this episode, Romadunzay was seemingly healthy. But he's got a stress fracture in his foot. He's gonna be sidelined for not days, but weeks. He missed Week fourteen, and Burden unsurprisingly saw his highest target chair of the season at twenty one percent. He also led the Bears and receiving yards with sixty seven And no, I'm definitely not gonna say it. I Am not going to say it, but there's a very real chance that a Doonday misses more time.

00:01:42
Speaker 2: Some estimates out there have been three to five weeks with this injury.

00:01:46
Speaker 1: That'd be huge for Luther Burden. The downside here, though, is that Chicago doesn't have this amazing fantasy playoff schedule. They have games against Cleveland, Green Bay, and San Francisco. Don't get me wrong, there are worst matchups out there that this isn't lining up absolutely perfectly for Luther Burton. Even still, I think is a clear down the stretch breakout candidate. He should be rostered everywhere. Add Chris Rodriguez, so Chris Rodriguez is still available in over sixty percent.

00:02:18
Speaker 2: Of Yahoo leagues.

00:02:19
Speaker 1: That's despite the fact that he's averaged twelve carries per game over his last three He's been Washington's early down back. And yeah, Rodriguez is mostly as zero as a pass catcher. He's had two targets all season long. But here's the thing, Washington, they get the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys over their final three games. Maybe Philadelphia is going to be a tougher matchup, and maybe they won't see a positive or neutral game.

00:02:43
Speaker 2: Script against them.

00:02:45
Speaker 1: But he could be usable at least this week against New York and maybe Week seventeen against Dallas. In ten team leagues, I don't think Rodriguez is that much of a necessity, and a twelve teamer or a fourteen teamer he should be rostered. He should at least be stashed, even if you're just blocking your opponent by having him on your bench.

00:03:06
Speaker 2: Hold a Mecca Abuca.

00:03:08
Speaker 1: From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, I had four separate messages from people about a Mecca Abuka and whether or not they should drop him.

00:03:17
Speaker 2: I get the.

00:03:17
Speaker 1: Idea behind that, because a Mecca Buca clearly has not been performing well. I'm just not there yet. Abuka's in a thirty percent target chair, a really good number. In five of his last six games, he's given managers ten plus PPR points and just one of those outings. In other words, twenty percent of his thirty percent or better target chair games have resulted in double digit PPR points. Across the entire NFL wide receiver population, that rate of getting ten or more PPR points on a thirty percent or better target chair is eighty percent. So the question is what the heck is going on? Why is a Mecca a Buka played like this? And the simple answer to that is just conversion. Abuka has cut four forty percent of his targets since Week five. Just for some context for how bad that actually is. Across every season since twenty eleven, among wide receivers with fifty or more targets, and Abuka has seventy two. Over this timeframe, we've only seen nine wide receivers with a sub forty percent catch rate. Now, Abuka likely won't finish the season with that low of a catch rate. His rate right now is forty nine percent. It just goes to show how incredibly awful that number actually is. Now some will see this as a sign that Abuka is not playing very well, and that's certainly a piece of this. You probably saw his drop touchdown in Week fourteen, But I also see this as something that will.

00:04:39
Speaker 2: Eventually more than likely regress.

00:04:42
Speaker 1: According to Fantasy Life data pre Monday Night Football, there have been one hundred and seven wide receivers who have run one hundred and more routes since Week five. Abuka ranks one hundred and fifth among that group in catchable targets rate. Fewer than half of his looks have actually been catchable. And the wild part is that the two play rank below him, Arian Smith and Isaiah Bond. They have average depth of targets above twenty yards. Abuca's during this time is twelve and a half. Deeper targets are naturally going to be more inaccurate. Now, this isn't something I haven't said before. I've talked about this on Ten Trends episodes in the past. Maybe you think that I'm just doubling down on a bad take, because in the past I did say that things would regress, and things clearly have not regressed. But really, weird stretches like this can happen with players. It's been bad for eight games now. A couple of those games there was an injury involved, But me saying that things will regress eventually that might not be reassuring. And not only that Mike Evans could be back this week. But maybe that's exactly what a Mecca Buca needs. Less pressure on him could lead to easier coverage that could up his catchable targets rate.

00:05:55
Speaker 2: Just look at what helped him.

00:05:56
Speaker 1: Dominate the first five weeks of the season, big plays and really great conversion. Abuka's target chair per game rate over his first five games this year was twenty three percent. That's really good, but it's not great. It's not excellent. Through those games, no player in the NFL had more yards on deep all targets. On thirteen targets that traveled twenty or more are yards according to PFF, Abuka caught eight of them for two hundred and ninety one yards and four touchdowns. Since then, Abuka has caught one of seven deep all targets for thirty one yards across three additional games. That's absolutely insane. With games against Atlanta, Carolina and Miami upcoming, I would be holding tight. I don't think this can go on forever, and honestly, I think the addition of Mike Evans might actually help the situation out. And that's the opposite of what I typically say. I just think right now we're seeing a player who needs some easier looks. It's almost like every time Baker Mayfield has a good target to abuca, he ends up dropping it. It's just been like that over and over again for the last couple of months. But the schedule is good and hopefully those targets become more catchable over these three games. I honestly think that's a likely outcome. Add Blake Koram. You've heard me talk about Blake Koram for months now, but if I didn't mention him after his twenty six point outing in PPR leagues, I'd have a lot of questions to answer this week. Korum is still out there in two thirds of Yahoo leagues. He's been getting consistent work in this really good Rams offense. He has touchdowns in back to back games. He needs to be rostered right now. If anything were to happen to starter Kyan Williams, Koram would be a league winning type of player. Not to be clear here, Koram's peripherals, They're not like amazing right now. He's actually been below a forty percent running back rush are in three straight games, and on the season he only has eleven total targets. Koram can really feast on bad defenses and when the Rams are in these pose of game scripts. And one thing to keep in mind is that over the next two games, the Rams get the Lions and the Seahawks. On the projection front, we're gonna like Kyron Williams a little bit more than usual in terms of just general workload, not necessarily fantasy production. The potential for closer games means the potential for less garbage time, and those two matchups are not a cakewalk. But I'm gonna say this one more time this year, Ad Blake Korum, Ad Jalen Wright. So one of the reasons I'm not a huge early season handcuffer is because we just don't know. Even late in the season, we sometimes just have no idea who the backup running back actually is. Many of you, including myself, probably thought that Allie Gordon was the RB two in Miami, that if Devon a Chan went down, Allie Gordon would absorb a lot of work that was not the case. In Week fourteen, a Chan left Miami's game early because he had a ribs injury, and it was Jalen Wright who ended up playing over seventy percent of the Dolphins offensive snaps after that injury. He carried the ball twenty four times and rushed for over one hundred yards. Now, this could just be one of those situations where they just wanted Jalen Wright to get some run that in any other circumstance they would have gone to Oli Gordon. We don't know, but I think based on what we saw last week, we'd probably want Jalen Wright if Devon ah Chan were to miss time. The good news though, it doesn't sound very serious for Devon a Chan, so you don't have to be super aggressive and getting right off the waiver wire this week, but I would still add him just in case. Drop Troy Franklin. This has been an unbelievably weird season for Troy Franklin. At one point, he was the clear cut top wide receiver for the Broncos. Now he's comfortably playing behind both Courtland Sutton and rookie Pat Bryant. If you're in a deeper league, even some twelve teamers dropping Franklin not as necessary, but if you need bench space, it's not that crazy to let him go. He has thirty two yards over his last two games. He had a season low forty percent routchare this past week. Are you really gonna trust him in Week fifteen against Green Bay? Probably not, which means you're crossing your fingers that we see a shift in usage this week. And the only reason in my eyes that that would happen is if last week's rout chair was basically due to injury or something. Even then you're then dealing with a fringe ross ruel player with some sort of ailment. That's not very fun to have on your roster either. And then on top of all of that, in Week seventeen, Championship week, they get a tough matchup against Kansas City. If that Week seventeen matchup looked awesome on paper, like if it was Dallas, I probably would hold tight. Maybe I'd see what Franklin can do over the next couple of weeks, but that's not an easy matchup in Week seventeen. At this point, I'd straight up rather have Pat Bryant. He's an ascending rookie who's getting more playing time, and by the way, that's an extra transaction for you. But again, if you're in a deeper league, Franklin can still be rostered. I just wanted to give an example of a player that I would consider dropping this time of year. Add Ryan Flanoy. Ceedee Lamb had a really bad head injury on Thursday night. It could sideline him in week fifteen if he misses any time. I'd expect Ryan Flanoy, you saw a season high sixty nine percent routchhare against the Lions, to step in and be Dallas's number two wide receiver target. We've seen Flinoy with a couple of blow up games this year. He had a thirty two percent target share earlier this year and last week it was twenty eight percent. We know he's capable of providing a ceiling. Just be aware that Dallas does get Minnesota this week and that's not a great matchup when looking at justin fantasy points allowed.

00:11:43
Speaker 2: But I do think Flinoy should be rostered.

00:11:48
Speaker 1: And Isaiah likely Over the Ravens last three games, Isaiah likely has twenty seven PPR points, Mark Andrews twelve point seven, and that gap could easily be wider. Likely fumbled at the goal line on Thanksgiving, and in this past week there was a controversial no touchdown call against him against Pittsburgh. Likely's had about a seventeen percent target share since Lamar Jackson returned from injury and Baltimore. This week, they get a rematch against the Bengals. The Bengals are historically bad against tight ends, so even if you don't want to use Likely long term, you can definitely use him this week as a streamer. Ad Harold Fannin. I feel like I have to bring up Harold Fannin once again because he's been bawling out with Shador Sanders over the last three games. All with Sanders Fannin's first in the NFL and tight end target chair. He's top fifteen and tight end air yard chair, which is crazy because we know he gets those lowerad dot looks. He's even top fifteen and raw routes run per game. That's not a run heavy team. With fifteen pper points per game over this time period, you have to feel pretty good about Harold fann In the rest of season. And shout out to Harold Fannin's mom.

00:13:02
Speaker 2: If you know you know drop Xavier Worthy.

00:13:07
Speaker 1: So when you're thinking about whether or not to drop a player at this stage in the season, you have to ask yourself two main questions. Are you ever going to use that player in your starting lineup? And can an opponent find utility from that player? Was Xavier Worthy I'd imagine the most ten twelve team leagues. The answer to that first question is no, or at least I hope you have better wide receivers than Xavi. You're worthy worthyes, averaging just eight point nine PPR points per game this year, Even if you remove that Week one outing where he scored zero points because he got hurt, he's at just nine point eight. It's been four weeks since his target chair was above twenty percent. And here's the deal. You're probably not going to comfortably play him week fifteen against the Chargers. If he has a good game, maybe you'll throw him out in your lineup in Week sixteen against the Titans. Maybe, But then he gets the Broncos in Week seventeen. It's not the best line of games for xavi'er Worthy. And given his name brand, you may even find some usefulness in sabotage dropping him. You let him go you let another team pick him up, and then that other team uses him and doesn't get that much production because Xavier Worthy has not given us that much production. Maybe he surprises, but I don't think that production is going to be very predictable.

00:14:23
Speaker 2: But look like.

00:14:23
Speaker 1: Troy Franklin, deep leaguers, you don't have to make this move, and hey, Worthy might have a little bit of handcuff viability with him. An injury to someone like Rashid Rice could up his volume. Maybe that's a reason you want to keep him around. I just want to give you guys some options, and I also want to provide the thought process on what I'm thinking about when I'm dropping players this time of year. Ad Bam Knight, So why I talked about Trey Benson being a highly volatile by candidate earlier this season, and that looks like a giant l because the new surrounding Trey Benson has been really bad. They only have a couple of days left to activate him. Otherwise he's done for the season. He's gonna stay on IR and Adam Schefter he reported over the weekend that there's a real chance Benson just stays on IR without Trey Benson Bam Knight has turned into the early down running back for the Arizona Cardinals. He's now seen running back rushers of sixty seven, sixty nine, seventy percent over his last three games. Those are all solid numbers. He's had an eleven percent target share per game rate during that time. Now, Mari de Marcado has been sidelined, but I think De Mercado hurts Michael Carter more than he does Bam Knight. Now, Arizona does get a tough matchup this week against Houston, but they finished the year against Atlanta and Cincinnati. The Falcons have struggled defensively since the first chunk of the season, and the Bengals they're the easiest matchup for fantasy running backs when looking at adjusted fantasy points allowed. Add AJ Barner. Elijah Royo left Sunday's game with a knee injury. His status right now at the time of this recording to totally up in the air. If he is sidelined, we might see more AJ Barner. He's averaging nineteen percent target shair per game rate over his last four and Seattle according to my numbers, they have a top five schedule for tight ends in the fantasy playoffs. They get the Colts and the Rams over the next two weeks, and both of those teams rank us top ten opponents this season by justin points allowed to tight ends, so we might see some production from Barner over the next couple of weeks. Add Marcus Mariota. So look, I'm of the belief that if a player is healthy, he's gonna play. This is their job. They play football for a living. They want to be out there on the field, especially a quarterback, because for a quarterback to be an NFL quarterback, he's gotta have some sort of ego, right. I think Jayden Daniels would love to play, But after that injury scare in Week fourteen, I don't know if Washington's gonna throw him out there again. So if Daniels is out, Marcus Mariota becomes a really intriguing option the Commanders. They get a solid matchup against the Giants in Week fifteen. New York's a fringe top ten opponent for quarterbacks this year by justin points allowed. Now in Week sixteen they do get Philadelphia. That might be a tough matchup, but the Commanders finish their season against the Cowboys in Week seventeen. That's the best possible matchup for quarterbacks on paper. Mariota also gave fantasy managers three straight QP one performances in his last three starts. During that time, he averaged forty two rushing yards per game. The wide receivers are now healthy again. I know Zach Ertz isn't, but Terry McLaurin is, and so it wouldn't surprise me if Mariota is usable in the fantasy playoffs as long as he's the actual starter.

00:17:42
Speaker 2: Add the Jacksonville Jaguars defense.

00:17:45
Speaker 1: Tyrod Taylor was hurt in Week fourteen, so at this moment, I have no idea who's going to start for the Jets this week. What I do know is that the Jets get the Jags, and most sports books had the Jags as eleven and a half point favorites. That type of possible game script this offense with a potential backup quarterback could mean a lot of fantasy points for the Jags defense. Add the Chicago Bears defense, Shador Sanders has looked competent, but each defense of he's faced this season as starter, they've been fined from a fantasy perspective. He faced a bad Raiders d and Vegas scored five standard Fantasy points. That's their highest total over their last four games. Then in week thirteen, it was San Francisco. The forty nine ers were comfortably a top ten defense against the Browns. This past week it was Tennessee. We know this Tennessee defense is not anything special, but they saw their highest pressure rate of the season against Cleveland. This week, the Bears get the Browns their seven and a half point home favorites, and Cleveland has a team total of sixteen and a half points. So Chicago, they're a decent streamer. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by shirting for it pretty much anywhere. Podcast can be found to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening to everyone. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show.