Instant Reaction: President Biden Withdraws

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.640 Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from 0:00:15.720 --> 0:00:16.640 Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:16.920 --> 0:00:19.840 You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 0:00:19.920 --> 0:00:22.959 David Gerro with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:26.880 this afternoon. President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden 0:00:27.000 --> 0:00:29.720 saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice 0:00:29.760 --> 0:00:33.480 President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee. 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:41.400 Joining us now Bloomberg contributor Genie sheen Zano of Iona University. Genie, 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:46.000 with this announcement, are the Purple States any less purple? 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:47.600 I think they. 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:49.840 Are more up for grabs for the Democrats. 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:52.080 I think one of the big deciding factors we are 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:55.720 hearing for President Biden was the fact that you saw 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:59.920 states that should be reliably blue or somewhat rely on 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:04.000 blee blue leg Minnesota, New Hampshire, You're talking about my 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:07.119 home state of New York, New Jersey, that those were 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:09.960 creeping into the red or as you said, the purple. 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:12.600 And that is a big problem. And I think that's 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:15.080 where he saw the writing on the wall. If Donald 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:19.200 Trump expanded that battleground very very difficult for Joe Biden 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:21.600 to win, hence his decision today. 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:24.760 David Gern, Joe Matthew jump in here with Professor z Enough. 0:01:25.000 --> 0:01:27.560 Let me just ask you sort of what you see 0:01:27.600 --> 0:01:29.440 playing out here in the next twenty four hours. So, 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:31.479 as I say, we had this very quick endorsement from 0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:33.960 the president, as Joe and Tom were talking about just 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:36.959 a few minutes ago. The impulse here is to be 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:38.759 to get the vice president on the road. She has 0:01:38.800 --> 0:01:41.240 been on the road, has been holding events and rallies. 0:01:41.720 --> 0:01:44.480 How do you see this week beginning? How do you 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:46.320 see a gaining steam as it continues? 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:49.559 Yeah, I mean Kamala Harris two million dollars in Cape 0:01:49.560 --> 0:01:53.680 Cod yesterday. I think the thinking among many Democrats can't 0:01:53.720 --> 0:01:55.640 speak for all of them, is that this is a 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:59.360 quick handover. We saw the endorsement. It is a Joe Biden. 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:03.000 Kamala has campaign so that she is able to take 0:02:03.040 --> 0:02:06.640 over the campaign, the apparatus, the fundraising, which is tremendous 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:10.079 and move forward. I think the big question hanging over 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:13.960 everybody's head is is there going to be a contest? 0:02:14.600 --> 0:02:17.760 I am skeptical that we will see a contest at 0:02:17.760 --> 0:02:22.679 this point, particularly given how quickly President Biden endorsed her, 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:25.880 but it is still a possibility. The other thing is, 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:29.360 and the lawyers know this better than I do, is 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:32.360 that there may be some contest in terms of can 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:35.919 she take over this campaign apparatus. I'm describing it as 0:02:35.919 --> 0:02:39.600 a Biden Harris campaign. It is, but there may be 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:43.760 legal challenges to that. If there's not, she'll take that over, 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:46.200 and then I think it's harder for us to see 0:02:46.240 --> 0:02:49.120 a contest. And then the big question is going to 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:52.720 be what do the delegates do, of course, and who 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:55.280 does she choose as her vice presidential running mate? 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:56.720 At this point, Ge, now I want to go to 0:02:56.760 --> 0:02:59.720 your wheelhouse, which is the shades of the Democratic Party 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:03.440 in nineteen fifty two. You know what, there were shades 0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:07.080 of a Democratic Party. They were all the same. The 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:10.720 difference from Stevenson the SSE's key fower, come on, it 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:14.000 was next to nothing. It was just geographic. It was regional. 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:17.440 Somebody had a pet project in that. We have huge 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:21.160 polarity in the Democratic Party right now. Is the vice 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:23.000 president a progressive? 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:26.800 I am not sure that she will choose in that way. 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:30.920 You know, the reality is as a political scientist that 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:35.560 vice presidential choices in all of our research seldom make 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:40.560 any difference whatsoever. That said, this is an astounding situation, 0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:44.960 unprecedented in the modern era, so it likely could. And 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:48.520 I think for Kamala Harris as she thinks about her choices, 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:52.000 you know, we are hearing about the tremendous number of 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:56.800 really attractive young Democratic governors across the country, from Shapiro 0:03:56.920 --> 0:04:00.560 to Indy Bashir to down in North Carolina to J. D. 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:05.160 Pritzker in Illinois. It's a large, large number. I'm excluding 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:08.480 Newsome only because he has the same problem Marco Rubio 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:12.400 did for Trump in her home state. But that said, 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:14.840 there's also been a lot of talk about somebody like 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:18.320 Senator Kelly out in Arizona. If I had to guess, 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:21.760 I think she is going to choose a geographic match 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:25.480 rather and somebody who she personally can work with, obviously, 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:27.719 and who she thinks could be president if something should 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:31.440 happen to her, as opposed to think about the ideological 0:04:31.520 --> 0:04:34.279 split in the Democratic Party. And the only reason I 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:37.279 say that is because you're right, there is that difference 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:40.360 in the party, but one thing that unites all Democrats, 0:04:40.440 --> 0:04:43.520 right now is beating Donald Trump. That's at the forefront 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:45.760 of all of their minds. Okay, and that's why I 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:47.760 think she doesn't go progressive. 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:51.120 Beautifully, said David Gerra. Terry Ames has said this and 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:55.080 many others. Well, we're desperate for polls like we've never 0:04:55.160 --> 0:04:59.000 been in our modern political history, Bason. Your experience, David Gurra, 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:02.080 when does our Audi medians get polls that begin to 0:05:02.200 --> 0:05:05.560 color the strength that the vice president has or the 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:07.000 strength other candidates have. 0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:09.440 It'll be some days until we get enough of them 0:05:09.440 --> 0:05:11.240 that we can have some confidence in them. But we 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:13.800 know from our reporting and from others reporting that the 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:17.719 Democratic Party was polling the viability of Kamala Harris as 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:20.000 a presidential nominee in the days leading up to this. 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:21.839 We know that in this vacuum that the president was 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:24.240 in trying to figure this out, this was one of 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:26.720 his concerns and the party's concerns how this would work. 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:28.960 And so we have had some polling thus far that 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:31.600 illustrates what that matchup might be like with Donald Trump, 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:33.359 and we've seen her hold her own in those polls. 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:35.960 But to answer your question more thoroughly, Tom, I think 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:38.080 until we get a more robust set of pulling on 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:39.440 this is going to take a few days until we 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:41.720 figure that out. And I'm just going to note here 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:44.560 the kind of endorsements and comments on this continue to roll, 0:05:44.600 --> 0:05:47.000 and we have a comment now from President Clinton former 0:05:47.000 --> 0:05:49.600 Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. They're issuing a joint statement 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:52.760 here about Kamala Harris. It begins with a preamble of 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:55.000 them thanking Joe Biden for the service that he's had 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:57.800 to the country in this role, most recently but throughout 0:05:57.800 --> 0:06:00.200 his long career. Then they say, we are honor to 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:02.960 join the president in endorsing Vice President Harris, and we'll 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:06.200 do whatever we can to support her. GENI, I'm curious 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:09.880 how well Americans know Kamala Harris. You mentioned how insignificant 0:06:09.880 --> 0:06:12.240 the role of the vice president might be historically, how 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:14.920 little a difference that might make. But she has name 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:17.600 recognition and that's something here. But how much do most 0:06:17.600 --> 0:06:20.000 people know about her? And her record is Attorney general 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:22.560 in California and indeeds are of what makes her tick? 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:24.839 What are the policy agenda items that are most important 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:25.159 to her? 0:06:26.120 --> 0:06:26.320 You know? 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:29.480 I think on the plus side, Kamala Harris has really 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:32.840 done a very strong job of going out and talking 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:36.440 about women's health, pushing back on the Dobbs decision. They're 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:39.200 right for people. I shouldn't just say women to do 0:06:39.279 --> 0:06:42.640 what they want with their own bodies, and that has 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:46.160 been something I think many Americans now associate with her. 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:49.039 That said, to your point, While she did run in 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:52.719 twenty twenty, she was a you know, one term senator 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:56.920 from California, previously a state attorney general, so well known 0:06:56.960 --> 0:07:00.279 in that state. Not quite as much across the country, though, 0:07:00.320 --> 0:07:04.440 as the first African American woman and Indian American woman 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:08.080 to achieve the vice presidency, she did get a lot 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:12.280 of coverage in the announcement of her choice. On the downside, 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:15.880 she was flagged with the border issue for a long 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:20.400 time and that has really drawn down people's concerns about 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:24.560 her ability to do this job. So there's some mixed reaction, 0:07:24.760 --> 0:07:27.040 but she is going to have to go out and 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:30.360 sort of come out from Joe Biden's shadow, if you will. 0:07:30.880 --> 0:07:33.360 One thing I would note, and I think to her credit, 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:36.320 throughout all of these last three weeks, she has been 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:40.080 on the campaign trail pushing hard for Joe Biden, and 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:43.120 her people were very clear she is not going to 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:47.520 get involved in this race to see who should feed him, 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:50.320 and so that is on the plus side for her. 0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:53.320 I look at where we are and folks who want 0:07:53.360 --> 0:07:57.960 to draw in here not only the expected statements by worthies, 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:02.120 by Democrats, by Republicans, but across all and take advantage 0:08:02.120 --> 0:08:05.679 of the social media at this historic moment. Tim albert 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:09.239 is at the Atlantic and he's really done studies, careful 0:08:09.280 --> 0:08:13.480 studies of evangelical America, just among other things. And Geenie, 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:18.559 here's where Tim Alberta comes out really right now. Really 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:24.119 cannot overstate how problematic this is for Trump's operation. Why 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:29.720 is that what radically change changes for the campaign apparatus 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:33.240 of the former president on this Sunday afternoon. 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:37.079 And Tim who just wrote a beautiful piece on Trump's 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:40.000 two campaign managers, and that's what I think he is 0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:44.040 alluding to. It was very clear and that really well 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:48.240 done piece about Chris Lasavitas and Susie Wilds that their 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:52.840 entire campaign wh was shaped by going against Joe Biden 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:57.679 to have this switch at the last minute after their convention, 0:08:57.840 --> 0:09:01.199 which is the most coverage argued, we will believe Donald 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:04.760 Trump is going to get until if there is another 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:07.600 debate with a new candidate, they have to shift their 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:10.520 entire focus. So the uncertainty we're talking about for the 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:14.320 Democrats is also true on the Republican side. And that's 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:16.920 what I think he's pouting to. They've got to quickly 0:09:16.960 --> 0:09:20.559 shift their focus now to Carris or somebody else, because 0:09:20.559 --> 0:09:21.600 she is not the nominee. 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:25.160 Jenny, thank you so much. Through the afternoon, Genie, Professor 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:28.320 Zana will be with us. She's at Iona University, Jennie, 0:09:28.400 --> 0:09:32.200 She and Zano. A number of others are looking at this, 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:34.400 and one of them is the difference between Ger and 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:36.720 I were lazy. You know, we do things, We do 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:40.280 the big take, we do podcasts, we stroll in, we 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:43.600 go to lunch. Laura Davidson never goes to lunch. She 0:09:44.000 --> 0:09:47.880 is the journalist in Washington covering these tensions, and we're 0:09:47.920 --> 0:09:50.840 thrilled that she could join us. Now, Laura, I want 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:54.440 you to look forward. There are editors across all of 0:09:54.480 --> 0:09:58.760 our major newspapers, all of our magazines saying I need 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:02.040 something Tuesday or wind Day morning. What is the distinction, 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:05.320 Laura Davidson, that you would write about for Tuesday or 0:10:05.320 --> 0:10:06.160 Wednesday morning? 0:10:07.320 --> 0:10:09.160 So the next steps are not clear. 0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:13.080 Biden has endorsed Harris, and presumably that means many of 0:10:13.120 --> 0:10:16.040 his delegates will back Harris. But the big unknown is 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:19.600 will someone else jump into the race. Democratic rules don't 0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:23.120 Party rules don't require that Biden's delegates back Harris. So, 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:27.160 you know, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan governed Gretchen Whitmer, 0:10:27.280 --> 0:10:29.400 they want to jump in the race. Suddenly, we could 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:33.040 have a contested convention on our hands. There's a couple, 0:10:33.200 --> 0:10:35.440 you know, things that are that are totally uncertain here. 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:37.160 You know, the biggest question is just, you know, where 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:39.199 do those camps start to fall in line. We're already 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:42.400 seeing a lot of lawmakers come out and endorsing Kamala Harris. 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:44.920 She also has an advantage because she can inherit the 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:47.679 money and the Biden campaign. A new candidate would not 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:49.240 be able to inherit that money. It would have to 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:50.120 start from scratch. 0:10:50.800 --> 0:10:53.200 The other thing that's also on everyone's mind too, is 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:55.040 from a from a global perspective, you know, what does 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:58.000 this mean for foreign leaders and particularly for adversaries. You know, 0:10:58.080 --> 0:11:00.920 is there some some sort of new, fresh national security 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:03.600 threat that could be injected into the atmosphere, you know, 0:11:03.679 --> 0:11:05.959 with sort of this period of uncertainty around who might 0:11:06.000 --> 0:11:08.240 be in charge of the Democratic Party going. 0:11:08.040 --> 0:11:11.280 Forward, Laura, what is the way that we've seen Kamala 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:13.520 Harris being used over these last couple of weeks tell 0:11:13.559 --> 0:11:16.960 you about the path forward? She has been out campaigning. Obviously, 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:19.120 she's been rather quiet on this issue, but she held 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:21.520 a very important call with donors on Friday of this week, 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:24.640 trying to assuage many of their concerns about the prospects 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:27.240 of this happening as Joe Biden was figuring all of 0:11:27.240 --> 0:11:30.000 this out. Any insight that you can glean just from 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:31.960 the way that she has been acting or the Democratic 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:33.959 Party in the campaign have been using her in recent 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:36.600 days that might foretell what she's going to be like, 0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:38.520 how she's going to approach the campaign going forward. 0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:39.560 You know. 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:41.640 In addition to that call of donors, we've also seen 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:44.080 her just more front and center in advertising and you know, 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:45.800 fundraising appeals that have gone out. 0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:47.200 Via email on social ads. 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:49.680 She's also been hitting the campaign trail very hard, so 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:51.280 you can kind of see there was a you know, 0:11:51.320 --> 0:11:53.360 a very quiet ramp up, you know, in case this, 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.680 you know, was the situation that we now find ourselves in. 0:11:57.200 --> 0:11:59.480 What's different about her is she has been very different 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:02.000 on the campaign trail than Biden. Biden has really focused 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:05.040 on those blue wall states Michigan and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. 0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:07.319 She has more focused on some of the southern. 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:10.120 States, you know, Arizona, Nevada, and the messages that they 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:12.240 carry are very different. Biden was focused on, you know, 0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:15.480 the economy and jobs on reunion workers. Harris has been 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:17.640 much more about abortion, that being an issue that she's 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:20.520 very comfortable talking with and that Biden isn't. 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.800 So there will be sort of a reformulation of you. 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:26.680 Know how uh, you know, of how Harris tries to 0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:28.840 position herself if she is in fact the nominee and 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:30.480 of course, you know, if you know all of the 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:32.840 people who might want to be her running mate, you 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:34.560 know that's going to be something that party leaders and 0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:36.480 in you delegates are going to be looking at what 0:12:36.559 --> 0:12:37.720 balances her out. 0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:40.480 You know, do you go to someone like Josh Shapiro as. 0:12:40.280 --> 0:12:43.200 A governor of Pennsylvania, they might appeal to to more 0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:44.479 of those blue wall states. 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:47.040 All of this, you know, parlor parlor talks. 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:51.160 You know, what's happened now and what's happening on the old. 0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:54.320 Lord Davison, Thank you so much for being saustine as 0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:57.240 I hope you wake you up tomorrow morning at seven am. 0:12:57.360 --> 0:13:00.199 You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:03.360 David Gurrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Plenty ahead, 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:04.960 This is Bloombak. 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:17.480 Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from 0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:18.480 Bloomberg Radio. 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:21.600 You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:24.680 David Gerrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:28.640 this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden 0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:31.480 saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:35.199 President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee. 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:38.960 What we're looking for is conversation with people with experience 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:42.760 and maybe without an angle. And that is absolute definition 0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:47.800 of Wendy Benjamin to say she's deputy Managing editor, it's 0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:50.280 a big long title. She wouldn't come to Bloomberg unless 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:53.440 it was a big long title. But she was definitive 0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:59.880 at the Associated Press with McClatchy and USA Today is well, 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:06.359 it's a new media today. You lived the old media. 0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:09.679 LBJ didn't have to put up with this. Truman didn't 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.839 have to put up with this. Let's look forward. How 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:17.079 do these people position themselves given modern media? 0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:21.520 Well, hi Tom, and thank you for always bringing up 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:22.040 how long. 0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:22.360 I've been in. 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:25.560 Trying to do it. 0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:30.960 It's all about the history today, But I will tell 0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:33.680 you it is. It is a tricky rott, a hope 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:37.040 for the other Democrats who might who might join the 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:41.600 race this Today they are all over ex posting how 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:44.120 grateful they are to the president, without a single word 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:48.520 about themselves. I think they are all eagerly watching the 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:52.520 process of what will happen next, whether Kamala Harris does 0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:57.160 become the nominee by fate or by or there will 0:14:57.200 --> 0:15:01.480 be this open process to to choose another nominee, at 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:05.480 which point these people will definitely start changing their posts 0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:08.000 on Twitter to be more forward looking. But today is 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:11.040 sort of one of those days where you just focus 0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:14.960 on Biden and whether he did, and don't worry about 0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:17.760 your ambitions for at least publicly for a few. 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:21.160 Minutes, Wendy Benjamins, and we'll marinate in that for you know, 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:24.000 twenty four hours, whatever minutes. 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:27.000 So she when she first came to Washington, she was 0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:30.720 in the octagon bar Willard. Yes, it was the same thing. 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:32.880 Everything was, you know, we'll think about for a day 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:35.440 or two, but it was a few minutes. Wendy. 0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:38.720 Nice to speak with you. And I'm curious sort of 0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:41.120 how long it takes for the contours of this campaign 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:43.200 to change. I was talking with some senior Democrats who 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.800 said their major frustration has been Donald Trump has been 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:49.600 out campaigning. He's been lying as they saw it, He's 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:52.440 been lying as we've we've reported. They need a Democrat 0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:55.040 who can push back on that and debate him formally 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:57.640 in the context of the campaign. They hope on a 0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:00.600 debate stage as well. I'm sure that they see Kamala 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:03.040 Harris is somebody very capable of doing that. How long 0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:05.800 until we see the contours and the sort of flavor 0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:07.920 and character of this campaign start to change. I guess 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:09.160 what I'm asking is how long are we going to 0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:11.240 merit it on this the praise for Joe Biden before 0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:13.680 we move on to what is a reset of this 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:14.680 Democratic campaign? 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:18.760 Seriously, David, I would start an egg timer right now. 0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:21.440 I think, you know, as we all come back to 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:26.080 our desk in the office tomorrow, this will already start changing. 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:28.800 There is no time left. There is no time to 0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:31.840 you know, spend a lot of time thinking about how 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:34.400 great if you believe that that Joe Biden was, and 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:37.800 how to move forward. There is only time to get 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:41.800 this done. The Democratic Convention is in less than a 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:46.200 month and they have to have a nominee. They also 0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:49.920 were going to virtually nominate Joe Biden's When I say 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:53.600 virtually mean by phone because the ballot access laws, the 0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:57.040 ballots will be printed in Ohio before the Democratic Convention. 0:16:57.440 --> 0:17:00.160 Ohio a major state that you you know, a lot 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:02.520 of electoral votes that you have to be on the 0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:06.600 ballot for. So I think there will be tomorrow morning. 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:08.760 I mean Jamie Harris and the d n C chair 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:11.520 has already put out a safe in saying we're going 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:14.320 to start the process now figuring out how to do this. 0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:20.480 Remember this is unprecedented, LBJ who I was a child when. 0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:21.600 He did you hear that? 0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:29.879 Tom Yes, Remember he dropped out in March. 0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:33.719 There was still plenty of time to, you know, to 0:17:33.880 --> 0:17:36.600 have primaries with other candidates. I think Iowa and New 0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:38.840 Hampshire were the only states who had voted by them. 0:17:39.240 --> 0:17:42.440 So you know, this is we're just not in that situation. 0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:44.360 We have to have to get to work right away. 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:45.760 I want to go to the heart of the matter, 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:48.240 to the both you and this is something I've quoted, 0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:49.919 but I rarely put up the numbers. I'm not going 0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:52.320 to give you the digits. It's just too much to 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:58.040 contemplate right now. President Trump garnered seventy four million votes 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:02.040 the last time around the time before that, when he won, 0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:06.800 he garnered sixty five million votes. Basically, he garnered eight 0:18:07.200 --> 0:18:12.199 million votes losing in twenty twenty. David, let me go 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:16.200 to you first in Pennsylvania. Who has to show up 0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:21.240 now for the Democratic nominee who was not going to 0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:24.160 show up on Saturday for President Biden. 0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:27.840 Well, Pennsylvania's a particularly interesting question. I mean, they need 0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:29.480 everybody to show up, obviously, and you're going to hear 0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:31.840 that in the coming days and weeks. But you know, 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.600 they're going to be appealing to people who might have 0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:37.200 felt disillusioned by the way all of this was unfolding, 0:18:37.760 --> 0:18:40.080 might have felt like, you know, looking at a contrast 0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:41.960 there that we saw in the debate station Atlanta was 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:44.720 dispeariting them. Made them feel like the Democrats didn't have 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:49.040 a viable alternative to Republican nominee. We're going to see 0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:52.680 a big ground game trying to get everybody to the polls. Tom, 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:54.280 But you know it's funny. We'll talk to Joe Matthew 0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:55.919 in a few moments. Here is somebody that he mentioned 0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:59.680 on the heels of that Republican National Convention is Roy Cooper, 0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:01.960 the gup of my home state of North Carolinas, somebody 0:19:01.960 --> 0:19:03.760 who's seen as maybe somebody who might be in the 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:06.280 fold here as well. Picking up on what you're saying 0:19:06.440 --> 0:19:08.679 what Wendy said as well, I think geography matters a 0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:10.000 ton of here, And Wendy, I'd love for you to 0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:11.840 come in and just give me your read on that. 0:19:11.840 --> 0:19:14.320 There's Pennsylvania, there's North Carolina. What are the other estates 0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:16.080 or geographies in this country that are going to be 0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.720 of just paramount importance here to Democrats going forward. 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:22.200 Well, the first one that leads to mind, David is Michigan, 0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:27.680 where Gretchen Whitmer, a very popular Democrat, is governor, two 0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:31.119 term governor, very popular. There's no question she is going 0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:34.359 to run for president someday. I don't think and so 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:38.240 I think, you know, if they're looking for alternatives beyond Kamala, 0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:40.920 Harris and Gretchen Whitmer becomes a big deal. So is 0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:46.280 Joshapiro in Pennsylvania. You know North Carolina. Yeah, North Carolina 0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:48.200 is one of those states that kind of goes back 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:51.200 and forth. It tends to be conservative. I don't know 0:19:51.480 --> 0:19:54.239 how it might be good to bring in Hammer and 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:56.680 Andy Basheer of Kentucky or someone like that too. 0:19:56.960 --> 0:19:59.920 Wendy, I had a crossow thrown at me my head 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:02.760 this morning at breakfast, and I'm going to bring it 0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:07.919 up with you because with no with great respect, Wendy, 0:20:07.960 --> 0:20:10.960 you're the one to answer this question. Now. You just 0:20:11.119 --> 0:20:15.760 mentioned Harris Whitmer is a potential ticket. Is there any 0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:19.399 evidence across the United States of America day today that 0:20:19.480 --> 0:20:24.679 we can elect Anglo Miracle or Teresa May of the 0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:27.800 United Kingdom? Is there any real evidence America is ready 0:20:27.840 --> 0:20:29.480 to elect a woman? 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:35.320 That's you know, I'm sighing because that's a very difficult question. 0:20:35.720 --> 0:20:39.880 There's certainly no practical reason we shouldn't see we're one 0:20:39.920 --> 0:20:43.080 of the last major countries on Earth not to have 0:20:43.119 --> 0:20:48.000 a female head of state. You know, I certainly think 0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:51.480 it's time for that. And I can't think of a 0:20:51.520 --> 0:20:54.760 reason why we wouldn't elect a woman. Maybe a double 0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:59.480 female ticket might be a little much for America. Crazy 0:20:59.480 --> 0:21:02.040 as that said, since we've elected so many double mail 0:21:02.119 --> 0:21:06.160 tickets in our history. But you know, but I do 0:21:06.240 --> 0:21:08.959 think if the Democrats all right, Mark, it would be 0:21:09.000 --> 0:21:12.960 more like a Harris Super Harris Asher, Harris Shapiro. 0:21:13.520 --> 0:21:15.919 Wanty Benjaminson not I have thrown a virtual croissant at 0:21:15.920 --> 0:21:17.600 you from DC, but she did. 0:21:18.680 --> 0:21:22.080 She said, that's what my expense account has is virtual croissants. 0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:25.640 What I am in Washington, d C. Saying it will 0:21:25.680 --> 0:21:28.320 be a long night for your leading our coverage in Washington. 0:21:29.000 --> 0:21:31.480 Wendy Benjamin, she is the queen of print. Thank you 0:21:31.600 --> 0:21:34.119 so much, Wendy for joining us today. We welcome all 0:21:34.119 --> 0:21:38.040 of you across Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio on YouTube. We're 0:21:38.040 --> 0:21:40.080 making light of it on a Sunday afternoon, but it 0:21:40.160 --> 0:21:43.440 is the most serious point for the nation. It is 0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:48.119 a democratic party, without question, in chaos, the transition from 0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:51.800 an eighty one year old president, he endorses his vice president. 0:21:51.920 --> 0:21:54.399 David's going to cover that in a moment, and some 0:21:54.480 --> 0:21:56.399 of the news flow here we welcome all to you, 0:21:56.480 --> 0:22:00.480 David Gerra and Tom Keen in Washington. Joe you to 0:22:00.480 --> 0:22:03.159 partake here in a moment, and Kaylen Lines is getting 0:22:03.200 --> 0:22:07.000 ready again for the television broadcast this evening. We hope 0:22:07.040 --> 0:22:10.760 to have her on as our schedule allows. Many other 0:22:10.800 --> 0:22:13.760 good people with conversation is well. Thank you for the 0:22:13.800 --> 0:22:17.800 comments out on Twitter, on YouTube and live chat as well. 0:22:18.320 --> 0:22:20.879 David Gera, it was a two step process. The shock, 0:22:21.240 --> 0:22:23.600 which I did not expect on a Sunday afternoon. I 0:22:23.680 --> 0:22:27.240 kept waiting for an LBJ Oval Office moment didn't happen, 0:22:27.920 --> 0:22:30.720 and then the endorsement of the Vice president. 0:22:31.240 --> 0:22:33.800 Yeah, it was a very funny interregnum. So let's start 0:22:33.840 --> 0:22:35.840 with the announcement itself. As you say, you know, I 0:22:35.920 --> 0:22:37.439 was waiting over the course of the weekend for that 0:22:37.440 --> 0:22:39.159 announcement to come out from the White House. You know, 0:22:39.200 --> 0:22:41.160 perhaps there'll be an Oval office speech. As you say, 0:22:41.200 --> 0:22:42.920 I think. I think we might still get that later 0:22:42.960 --> 0:22:45.399 this week. In his letter to the American people, the 0:22:45.400 --> 0:22:48.240 President saying that in the coming days he'll say more 0:22:48.280 --> 0:22:50.159 about his decision to do this. I think yet we 0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:52.440 will get that kind of formal moment for him to 0:22:52.480 --> 0:22:54.560 spell all of this out the way that he wants to. 0:22:55.280 --> 0:22:57.480 But reading that letter one page in length, just a 0:22:57.480 --> 0:23:00.600 few paragraphs, there was no mention of Kamala Harra Joe 0:23:00.600 --> 0:23:03.800 Biden's vice president. Then a few minutes past, a few 0:23:03.840 --> 0:23:06.720 more minutes passed and we got his full throat endorsement 0:23:06.800 --> 0:23:09.879 yes via X of Kamala Harris. He's going to support 0:23:09.920 --> 0:23:13.159 her in the campaign for president. Now we're beginning to 0:23:13.160 --> 0:23:17.159 piece together a how many Democrats come on board with that. 0:23:17.359 --> 0:23:19.000 It seems like in the last hour and a half 0:23:19.080 --> 0:23:22.159 or so many of them have Many prominent Democrats, gray beards, 0:23:22.200 --> 0:23:25.320 younger members of Congress, those who have been rather quiet 0:23:25.359 --> 0:23:27.040 during the course of this as they've waited for this 0:23:27.080 --> 0:23:29.280 to get hammered out by the President who has been 0:23:29.600 --> 0:23:32.080 at his home in Rohobe with be Beach, Delaware, kind 0:23:32.080 --> 0:23:34.280 of figuring all of this out. Thinking through all of this, 0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:36.960 we've heard from them. We'll see how much more that coalesces. 0:23:36.960 --> 0:23:39.600 And then we'll see, as we've been talking about, what 0:23:39.760 --> 0:23:41.800 other interests there may or may not be from other 0:23:41.880 --> 0:23:44.440 people in the Democratic Party to run, and then who 0:23:44.520 --> 0:23:46.320 Kamala Harris, if she is the nomine would pick for 0:23:46.320 --> 0:23:47.800 her vice presidential running mate. 0:23:47.840 --> 0:23:50.200 And now folks, we will digress, and again we welcome 0:23:50.240 --> 0:23:52.080 all of you to the shock of this news. The 0:23:52.119 --> 0:23:54.720 path forward for the nation, the path forward for the 0:23:54.720 --> 0:23:58.720 Democratic Party, and the pathword only Joe Matthew knows how 0:23:58.760 --> 0:24:04.200 big a piggy ban President Biden has. We're still working on, Joe. 0:24:04.280 --> 0:24:06.360 I see, Oh, let me go to you on this aid. Yeah. 0:24:06.400 --> 0:24:09.760 No, it is a sizeable pigure. It's over one hundred, 0:24:09.800 --> 0:24:12.240 over two hundred and fifty two hundred forty million dollars, 0:24:12.320 --> 0:24:15.560 so a little bit behind Donald Trump, but many, many 0:24:15.560 --> 0:24:19.199 millions of dollars. And as we heard from Lord Davison 0:24:19.240 --> 0:24:21.159 just a moment ago, Kamala Harris has been on the 0:24:21.200 --> 0:24:24.880 campaign trill during this uncomfortable period, raising a lot of money. 0:24:24.960 --> 0:24:27.200 She's on Cape cod presently where she raised two million 0:24:27.240 --> 0:24:29.920 dollars at this most recent fundraiser. So they have been 0:24:29.920 --> 0:24:33.400 out there beating the bushes, trying to get money from donors. 0:24:33.480 --> 0:24:35.760 And as I say that, I have to acknowledge the 0:24:35.800 --> 0:24:39.320 fact that as all of this unfolded, there was concern 0:24:39.359 --> 0:24:41.720 among rank and file Democrats. There was, as we saw, 0:24:41.800 --> 0:24:44.760 concern among members of the House, forty plus of them 0:24:44.800 --> 0:24:47.399 coming out suggesting that Joe Biden should do this members 0:24:47.400 --> 0:24:50.280 of the Senate as well, but also from donors. You know, 0:24:50.280 --> 0:24:54.119 what we've heard is that the chief fundraisers for the 0:24:54.119 --> 0:24:56.399 bind reelection campaign have been fielding all kinds of questions 0:24:56.480 --> 0:24:59.119 from their donors. Jeffre Katzenberg chief among them. He the 0:24:59.119 --> 0:25:01.439 main fundraiser. This was something that they were agitating or 0:25:01.440 --> 0:25:02.560 having to deal with as well. 0:25:02.359 --> 0:25:04.840 For mere mortals. David, you're used to this, Joe Matthews 0:25:04.880 --> 0:25:07.200 used to this as well. For me. The idea of 0:25:07.359 --> 0:25:10.880 you know, X millions of dollars, it's sitting in a bank, 0:25:11.400 --> 0:25:15.879 They're going to spend it evenly and rapidly, ads and 0:25:15.920 --> 0:25:18.800 all the rest of the apparatus, and that the vice 0:25:18.880 --> 0:25:24.200 president can pick up that slug of money. Correct she can? 0:25:24.359 --> 0:25:25.520 They are adamant that she can. 0:25:25.720 --> 0:25:29.679 And what can Governor Shapiro Pennsylvania do. Sell a bottle 0:25:29.720 --> 0:25:32.320 of yengling and try to get through What's he do? 0:25:32.520 --> 0:25:34.280 They would have to sell many trucks of yongling to 0:25:34.320 --> 0:25:36.399 catch up. But this has been what those who have 0:25:36.440 --> 0:25:38.960 supported Kamala Harris being the nominee have said all along 0:25:39.080 --> 0:25:41.840 is this is the Biden Harris campaign. Her name is 0:25:41.880 --> 0:25:44.040 on the ticket. She's helped raise this fire. She could 0:25:44.080 --> 0:25:45.880 get that money and others couldn't, and that has been 0:25:46.040 --> 0:25:48.840 one of the principal reasons why they've said in this 0:25:48.880 --> 0:25:51.159 period when there's been a lot of haggling, she's the 0:25:51.200 --> 0:25:54.080 clear choice because she has access to it. Look, you know, well, Tom, 0:25:54.320 --> 0:25:57.679 these campaigns are expensive campaigns cost many millions of dollars. 0:25:57.800 --> 0:25:59.359 To not have that and to start with what you know, 0:25:59.480 --> 0:26:02.480 many weeks to go into the election would be incredibly dis. 0:26:02.200 --> 0:26:04.280 Is it August tenth of Chicago, Pittsburgh? 0:26:04.720 --> 0:26:06.720 That might be Jackson Hole, but it's a busy I 0:26:06.760 --> 0:26:08.959 can't keep track of it. You're listening to a special 0:26:09.080 --> 0:26:12.040 edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Gurrow with Tom Keen 0:26:12.080 --> 0:26:12.880 and Joe Matthew. 0:26:13.320 --> 0:26:15.400 Plenty ahead, This is Bloomberg. 0:26:24.720 --> 0:26:28.400 Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from 0:26:28.440 --> 0:26:29.399 Bloomberg Radio. 0:26:29.560 --> 0:26:32.480 You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 0:26:32.560 --> 0:26:35.600 David Gerrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news 0:26:35.600 --> 0:26:38.880 this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his re election bid, 0:26:39.160 --> 0:26:42.080 Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed 0:26:42.160 --> 0:26:45.000 Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the 0:26:45.000 --> 0:26:46.199 Democratic nominee. 0:26:46.320 --> 0:26:49.399 We're here at this very historic moment for the country, 0:26:49.400 --> 0:26:51.359 and we welcome all of you, and we really appreciate 0:26:51.840 --> 0:26:55.720 our guests for the effort that they've made. This guest 0:26:56.000 --> 0:26:59.040 has said the single most important thing I've heard from 0:26:59.119 --> 0:27:05.160 that horrific debate for President Biden, Terry Haynes appee has said, Tom, 0:27:05.640 --> 0:27:09.600 all that matters are the polls. Mister Haynes joins us. Now. 0:27:09.640 --> 0:27:12.679 I can't say enough about following him on LinkedIn for 0:27:12.800 --> 0:27:18.439 intelligent summaries. Whatever your political persuasion, Terry Haynes, do you 0:27:18.560 --> 0:27:21.359 have polls? And when do you and the vice president 0:27:21.720 --> 0:27:22.440 get them? 0:27:24.920 --> 0:27:27.879 Just you know, there's a bunch of folks pinging me 0:27:28.000 --> 0:27:30.800 and pelting me right now saying you realize, of course 0:27:30.840 --> 0:27:34.399 Harris polls worse than Biden. There's some evidence to that effect. 0:27:34.440 --> 0:27:37.880 There's also some evidence that they pull better. My advice 0:27:37.920 --> 0:27:41.119 all along has been, you know, ignore the ignore the 0:27:41.119 --> 0:27:44.160 green eye shade stuff. You're you're you know, you're now 0:27:44.640 --> 0:27:48.720 from from Washington political technicians who love talking about this 0:27:48.800 --> 0:27:50.600 stuff and how you can dial it up or dial 0:27:50.640 --> 0:27:54.399 it down, Harris is going to be in uncharted waters 0:27:54.440 --> 0:27:57.439 if indeed it is Harris, and I imagine that the 0:27:57.640 --> 0:28:01.640 energy that comes from this campaign and Democrats rallying around her, 0:28:02.520 --> 0:28:04.760 you know, really give Democrats a big shot in the 0:28:04.840 --> 0:28:07.400 arm here and on poles. Last thing I would say 0:28:07.600 --> 0:28:12.240 is the two way national average two day before Biden 0:28:12.320 --> 0:28:15.320 dropped out was Trump up by three, with a bunch 0:28:15.359 --> 0:28:19.000 of polls that have margins of error that are bigger 0:28:19.040 --> 0:28:22.360 than that. So you know, Harris is not far off 0:28:22.400 --> 0:28:26.480 the scent here. And my immediate prediction is she probably 0:28:26.520 --> 0:28:27.360 gets a little stronger. 0:28:27.800 --> 0:28:29.680 Talk about that strength if you would, Terry, It's great 0:28:29.720 --> 0:28:31.320 to speak with you as always, And I've had a 0:28:31.359 --> 0:28:34.359 lot of people say to me, look, Kamala Harris hasn't 0:28:34.359 --> 0:28:36.600 been able to campaign as much as she might like to, 0:28:37.040 --> 0:28:39.080 might not have as big a policy portfolio as she 0:28:39.120 --> 0:28:41.840 wants to, in part because of the relationship that she 0:28:41.920 --> 0:28:44.479 has with the president, in part because they don't want 0:28:44.480 --> 0:28:46.160 her to be outfront. They want to be out front. 0:28:46.840 --> 0:28:49.040 So that wall drops she's able to get out there. 0:28:49.600 --> 0:28:51.239 What are we likely to see from her? I mean, 0:28:51.400 --> 0:28:54.360 I've watched her at some events recently. She is a 0:28:54.400 --> 0:28:57.440 powerful speaker, she's able, she's very facile with everything that's 0:28:57.440 --> 0:29:00.560 in her portfolio and more, what do you expect her 0:29:00.680 --> 0:29:02.400 on the campaign trail to look like? 0:29:02.520 --> 0:29:02.760 Now? 0:29:04.160 --> 0:29:06.120 My advice all along has been I wrote a piece 0:29:06.120 --> 0:29:08.880 about this back in February at one point, I believe 0:29:08.920 --> 0:29:11.680 it or not, about how you know you basically underestimate 0:29:11.720 --> 0:29:14.600 Harris at your peril. It's very fashionable in Washington to 0:29:14.640 --> 0:29:16.920 walk around and say, well, you know, she doesn't speak 0:29:16.960 --> 0:29:19.400 so well. And there's plenty of examples of that, and 0:29:19.440 --> 0:29:22.280 you'll still now see them all in campaign advertisements in 0:29:22.280 --> 0:29:25.720 the next four months. But you know where she's really strong. 0:29:25.840 --> 0:29:28.880 She's really strong, and it's a and it dovetails very 0:29:28.960 --> 0:29:32.840 nicely into the Democratic message, which is on all on 0:29:32.880 --> 0:29:37.479 all the social issues that are the core of the 0:29:37.520 --> 0:29:41.600 core of the Democratic message. And I would expect her 0:29:41.640 --> 0:29:44.240 to hammer away at that. And that is a powerful 0:29:44.280 --> 0:29:47.240 message not only to Democratic base, but it's an enticing 0:29:47.280 --> 0:29:51.600 message to a lot of independent voters as well. One 0:29:51.640 --> 0:29:55.120 thing that the Democrats have to do in order to 0:29:55.160 --> 0:29:59.280 win is to keep but excuse me, keep Trump underwater 0:29:59.480 --> 0:30:04.160 within the endants and Harris. Harris being a hugely forceful 0:30:04.200 --> 0:30:08.080 advocate on social issues of all kinds. And you know, 0:30:08.120 --> 0:30:10.080 it is something I think you'll just you'll see them 0:30:10.080 --> 0:30:11.280 be relentless. 0:30:10.800 --> 0:30:14.560 At I once flunk to test Terry Haynes on vice 0:30:14.600 --> 0:30:18.000 presidential history. I couldn't name any of them. And there's 0:30:18.040 --> 0:30:20.760 this heritage back to eighteen oh two or whatever that 0:30:21.560 --> 0:30:25.120 they're just vice presidents and they'll be Okay, to the 0:30:25.160 --> 0:30:28.040 point you made with David Gerrow moments ago, do we 0:30:28.160 --> 0:30:31.600 really know who the prosecutor from California is? 0:30:34.240 --> 0:30:34.320 No? 0:30:34.440 --> 0:30:35.160 I don't think we do. 0:30:35.280 --> 0:30:37.120 Yeah, I agree, she thinks she's. 0:30:36.880 --> 0:30:41.320 Had very much a meteoric rise, and but you know, 0:30:41.120 --> 0:30:43.840 you haven't seen her out there on her own, really shining. 0:30:43.920 --> 0:30:46.440 And she's never been in a contested election before really 0:30:46.680 --> 0:30:49.760 other than her first one where she barely won. But 0:30:49.880 --> 0:30:52.480 you know, California being the you know, among the bluest 0:30:52.480 --> 0:30:56.440 of blue states, this is a very different this is 0:30:56.480 --> 0:30:58.360 a very different arena. 0:30:58.840 --> 0:31:02.640 It's a it's a very different arena. And you know, 0:31:02.640 --> 0:31:04.280 if I could, I'd love for you to take a 0:31:04.280 --> 0:31:05.680 step at the question that Tom asked me so I 0:31:05.720 --> 0:31:07.600 can answer with some authority the next time he asked me, 0:31:07.600 --> 0:31:09.520 but who is she? Who is she looking for? We 0:31:09.560 --> 0:31:11.120 know what the process is going to be like. She's 0:31:11.160 --> 0:31:13.320 going to meet with all of these folks whose names 0:31:13.360 --> 0:31:15.920 we've seen floated in recent days. See who she gets 0:31:15.960 --> 0:31:18.800 along with, Who might bring what to the ticket? What's yours? 0:31:18.880 --> 0:31:20.640 If you had to game that out, if if you 0:31:20.680 --> 0:31:22.200 had to look at the pluses and minuses of what 0:31:22.240 --> 0:31:24.880 each offers. Who does she need to pick? What type 0:31:24.920 --> 0:31:26.200 of running mate does she need to pick? 0:31:26.960 --> 0:31:30.440 She needs a centrist swing state governor? Would be my 0:31:31.400 --> 0:31:32.200 is my instinct. 0:31:32.320 --> 0:31:35.280 So you're in Philadelphia. I think they've won sixty games 0:31:35.320 --> 0:31:37.240 so far this year. The Phillies are just killing the 0:31:37.360 --> 0:31:39.800 Terry Haynes, you're in Philadelphia. 0:31:40.280 --> 0:31:43.640 My Pittsburgh Pirates to beat them Friday night and Saturday night, so. 0:31:43.600 --> 0:31:46.440 They're in their surveillance correction here on Sunday. 0:31:46.480 --> 0:31:49.720 And their stadium is far their ball field is far 0:31:49.760 --> 0:31:54.640 more elegant than in Philadelphia. In Philadelphia, Terry Hayes, you 0:31:54.720 --> 0:31:57.040 got to go out in the suburbs and I get 0:31:57.080 --> 0:32:01.200 that there's an issue that's demonstrably proven, abortion and changes votes. 0:32:01.680 --> 0:32:06.120 What's the next issue after that? For a nominee such 0:32:06.160 --> 0:32:07.719 as Mazaris. 0:32:08.600 --> 0:32:10.160 I think what you have to do is you you 0:32:10.520 --> 0:32:13.080 really have to goose the uh you really have to 0:32:13.080 --> 0:32:15.560 goose the urban votes. So it's going to be uh, 0:32:15.680 --> 0:32:20.600 civil rights issues attacked from the Supreme Court. Uh, you know, 0:32:20.640 --> 0:32:21.760 all those sorts of things. 0:32:21.960 --> 0:32:22.160 Uh. 0:32:22.200 --> 0:32:24.800 And and you and you have to be you have 0:32:24.840 --> 0:32:27.080 to be nuanced. You have to be firm but nuanced 0:32:27.200 --> 0:32:32.520 on on immigration because uh, in order to attract Hispanic 0:32:32.600 --> 0:32:36.720 voters back. Uh, you know, there's uh, you know, we're 0:32:36.720 --> 0:32:40.280 we're not that far away from uh, you know, the 0:32:40.320 --> 0:32:44.200 old style machine politics. But there will still be efforts 0:32:44.240 --> 0:32:46.840 to to goose that turnout. But what gets people going 0:32:47.480 --> 0:32:50.920 uh will be uh, you know, will be abortion, will 0:32:50.960 --> 0:32:54.040 be social programs, will be kind of the traditional democratic 0:32:54.360 --> 0:33:00.240 uh uh programs combined with the strong thought that what 0:33:00.280 --> 0:33:02.120 Trump and the Republicans want to do is get rid 0:33:02.160 --> 0:33:02.880 of all that stuff. 0:33:03.040 --> 0:33:05.280 Let me ask you about how Democrats capitalize on the 0:33:05.320 --> 0:33:07.200 timing of this. And I mean I could look back 0:33:07.560 --> 0:33:09.760 and I could say, look, if this had happened during 0:33:09.800 --> 0:33:11.720 the course of the RNC, just think about what that 0:33:11.760 --> 0:33:14.160 final night would have been like with Donald Trump speaking, 0:33:14.200 --> 0:33:15.960 if Joe Biden had issued this letter, now that he 0:33:15.960 --> 0:33:18.440 didn't do this Vietnaval Office address, he could have sent 0:33:18.440 --> 0:33:19.600 this letter out on Thursday. 0:33:20.160 --> 0:33:21.320 Wow, that would have. 0:33:21.320 --> 0:33:23.560 Upended all of the coverage that this had gotten, that 0:33:23.840 --> 0:33:26.880 speech had gotten. All right, we're moving past that. We 0:33:26.960 --> 0:33:29.760 get this letter on a Sunday. How do Democrats seize 0:33:29.760 --> 0:33:33.280 the spotlight and the narrative going forward? Here you have 0:33:33.480 --> 0:33:36.480 the former president weighing in that, you know, suggesting that 0:33:36.520 --> 0:33:39.720 Joe Biden should just step aside from his position entirely. Now, 0:33:39.880 --> 0:33:42.200 what did Democrats need to do to reclaim the narrative? 0:33:43.040 --> 0:33:45.560 Well, firstly, they need to call lesser on Harris. And 0:33:45.640 --> 0:33:48.479 I'm not sure the extent. I mean, this obviously just happened, 0:33:48.520 --> 0:33:51.200 but I'm not sure of the degree that they that 0:33:51.280 --> 0:33:55.440 they want to. I thought Biden's I thought Biden initially 0:33:55.520 --> 0:33:58.120 not endorsing her, and then ten minutes later somebody pointing 0:33:58.160 --> 0:33:59.480 out to him that, you know, you need to go 0:33:59.560 --> 0:34:03.160 endorse her. Uh said volumes about the disarray not only 0:34:03.240 --> 0:34:07.760 in Biden world but among Democrats. Now that said, if 0:34:07.800 --> 0:34:10.440 I was Harris, I'd be I'd be out there this 0:34:10.520 --> 0:34:14.400 afternoon acting like I was the nominee and uh, you know, 0:34:14.440 --> 0:34:16.640 and I'd be going down to uh, you know, the 0:34:16.640 --> 0:34:20.759 Biden campaign head quarters kicking some rear ends too, But 0:34:21.280 --> 0:34:24.120 the sooner that she acts as as the presumptive nominee, 0:34:24.160 --> 0:34:24.839 the better for her. 0:34:25.640 --> 0:34:29.800 First this is critical. Terry unfortunately got one minute left. 0:34:30.080 --> 0:34:32.600 How will we how WI How will she be greeted 0:34:33.120 --> 0:34:35.239 by loyal Biden operatives. 0:34:37.520 --> 0:34:46.280 She'll be greeted with publicly with rapture and privately hugs 0:34:46.280 --> 0:34:50.120 and kisses. But privately they'll feel like, I mean, she 0:34:50.280 --> 0:34:53.399 wasn't part of the part of the coup, but they'll 0:34:53.440 --> 0:34:57.560 they'll feel abashed that their their their guy isn't there anymore. 0:34:59.120 --> 0:35:00.600 I got to leave it there. I look forward to 0:35:00.600 --> 0:35:04.320 your LinkedIn summaries that you do there just really really exquisite. 0:35:04.360 --> 0:35:09.040 Terry Haynes with Pangaea, a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance, 0:35:09.040 --> 0:35:12.040 and we say good morning and good afternoon to all 0:35:12.080 --> 0:35:14.759 of you. Good morning of course in Asia, waking up 0:35:14.840 --> 0:35:17.279 very early in the morning to the news that the 0:35:17.320 --> 0:35:20.239 President of the United States will step aside and he 0:35:20.320 --> 0:35:22.880 will not seek a second term. And of course the 0:35:22.920 --> 0:35:26.280 operative idea here is it is late in the cycle. 0:35:26.360 --> 0:35:30.880 He endorses the vice president from California, Kamala Harris, David 0:35:30.880 --> 0:35:32.880 Gerr and Tom Keane with you in New York will 0:35:32.880 --> 0:35:35.480 have any number of guests in this hour stay with 0:35:35.560 --> 0:35:38.520 our special broadcast from five to seven that will be 0:35:38.520 --> 0:35:41.840 on Bloomberg Television. We welcome all of you on television 0:35:41.880 --> 0:35:46.000 on radio across this nation as well. David, we have 0:35:46.040 --> 0:35:49.239 an esteem guest to bring. And now she survived Milwaukee, 0:35:49.560 --> 0:35:53.160 she's getting ready for Chicago. She's two I think it 0:35:53.200 --> 0:35:55.640 was two weeks in Crete. As she got ready for Chicago, 0:35:56.160 --> 0:35:58.200 ripped up that trip. Why don't you bring in Kaylee 0:35:58.320 --> 0:36:00.160 Lines with her observision. 0:36:00.120 --> 0:36:02.239 Of course, the co host of Balance of Power here 0:36:02.280 --> 0:36:04.880 on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. As you say, she 0:36:04.960 --> 0:36:07.799 was at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and did 0:36:07.800 --> 0:36:10.640 one of the craziest teleportations I've seen in my life, 0:36:10.640 --> 0:36:12.560 Shinjo getting back to Washington for a full day of 0:36:12.600 --> 0:36:14.760 coverage on Friday. As we all were kind of watching 0:36:14.800 --> 0:36:17.560 to see how this would play out, Katie Lines, let 0:36:17.600 --> 0:36:18.960 me ask you, first of all, sort of what you're 0:36:19.000 --> 0:36:21.600 watching for here as you look at these reactions come 0:36:21.640 --> 0:36:25.840 in from Democrats, senior democrats, junior democrats. What those statements 0:36:25.840 --> 0:36:27.880 and aggregate are telling you about the direction of all 0:36:27.920 --> 0:36:28.160 of this. 0:36:29.120 --> 0:36:31.000 Well, I think what's more telling at this point, David, 0:36:31.080 --> 0:36:33.080 is that the people who have not yet in a 0:36:33.120 --> 0:36:37.000 statement given a direct endorsement of Kamala Harris, including most 0:36:37.040 --> 0:36:40.160 of the senior leadership of Democrats in Congress, the House 0:36:40.200 --> 0:36:43.560 Democratic Leader Hackeing Jeffreys, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have 0:36:43.600 --> 0:36:46.160 not explicitly endorsed her, as Joe Biden did about ten 0:36:46.200 --> 0:36:48.319 minutes after initially putting out the statement that he wasn't 0:36:48.360 --> 0:36:51.440 running for reelection. So those will be some key figures 0:36:51.480 --> 0:36:53.719 to watch, as well as those that we'd understood had 0:36:53.760 --> 0:36:56.160 been in conversation as to whether or not they could 0:36:56.239 --> 0:36:59.200 potentially be the Democratic nominee themselves. Think about the governor's 0:36:59.239 --> 0:37:03.000 Davie pritzkerve Illinois, Gavin Newsom of California, even the likes 0:37:03.000 --> 0:37:06.600 of Joshapiro and Pennsylvania Gretcher Whittmer in Michigan. We haven't 0:37:06.640 --> 0:37:11.520 really heard from them saying anything other than Kaylee service 0:37:11.560 --> 0:37:12.160 as president. 0:37:12.360 --> 0:37:14.640 What are they going to say, Mister Pritzker is in 0:37:14.719 --> 0:37:19.279 Illinois with a massive population loss, Chicago's flat on its back, 0:37:19.320 --> 0:37:23.120 forget about the convention and all that. What is going 0:37:23.200 --> 0:37:25.839 to be their response one day from now? Five days 0:37:25.840 --> 0:37:28.840 from now, ten days from now to a vice president 0:37:28.880 --> 0:37:32.800 with what, David a quarter of a billion dollars? What 0:37:33.520 --> 0:37:34.640 are they what are they going to say? 0:37:34.719 --> 0:37:37.800 Kaylee lines, Well, that's a very good point. The money 0:37:37.920 --> 0:37:39.960 is a huge factor here. Because Harris had been part 0:37:39.960 --> 0:37:42.239 of the Biden Harris campaign. She has access to that 0:37:42.280 --> 0:37:44.480 war chest with hundreds of millions of dollars in it, 0:37:44.560 --> 0:37:46.640 more easily than any other candidate would. Of course, if 0:37:46.640 --> 0:37:49.000 we're thinking about JB. Pritzker, who has his own personal 0:37:49.040 --> 0:37:51.760 fortune that held theoretically could tap to help sellth fund, 0:37:52.160 --> 0:37:55.160 that's a separate conversation. But really it's going to be 0:37:55.200 --> 0:37:57.200 about what happens in the coming days. Is we are 0:37:57.239 --> 0:37:59.080 not working with a great deal of time here at 0:37:59.080 --> 0:38:01.440 the convention. If four weeks from tomorrow, it starts on 0:38:01.480 --> 0:38:03.319 August nineteenth, so that is not a lot of time 0:38:03.719 --> 0:38:06.880 to get together support for a bid to go against 0:38:06.880 --> 0:38:09.600 Harris in an open convention if one wanted to. Of course, 0:38:09.600 --> 0:38:11.600 we're going to be watching very carefully for polling in 0:38:11.640 --> 0:38:14.200 the next few weeks to see how a Kamala Harris 0:38:14.280 --> 0:38:16.479 at the top of the ticket pulls against a Trump 0:38:16.520 --> 0:38:18.719 advance ticket. Since we know that jd Vance is Donald 0:38:18.719 --> 0:38:21.840 Trump's election to be the vice presidential nominee, and that 0:38:21.960 --> 0:38:25.000 polling could dictate the feeling moving forward toward the convention 0:38:25.040 --> 0:38:26.799 as to whether or not someone else needs to try 0:38:26.840 --> 0:38:29.719 to contest this and step in if Kamala Harris is 0:38:29.760 --> 0:38:31.759 not felt to be the strongest candidate to defeat Trump 0:38:31.840 --> 0:38:33.000 in November. 0:38:32.640 --> 0:38:35.560 Kaylee delicate question one of the Cardinal. 0:38:35.239 --> 0:38:37.919 Rules and a democratic prim Republicans are going. 0:38:37.840 --> 0:38:43.160 To a legal challenge to a president. On Bloomberg Television 0:38:43.280 --> 0:38:46.880 and Bloomberg Radio worldwide from her studios in Washington in 0:38:46.960 --> 0:38:49.719 New York, Joe Matthew, David Gurra, and Tom King with 0:38:49.840 --> 0:38:53.960 this special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Joe Matthew and Katie. 0:38:53.760 --> 0:38:56.759 Lyons, You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. 0:38:56.880 --> 0:38:59.520 I'm David Ura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. 0:39:00.000 --> 0:39:00.719 At this. 0:39:10.200 --> 0:39:13.839 Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. From 0:39:13.960 --> 0:39:14.920 Bloomberg Radio. 0:39:15.160 --> 0:39:18.080 You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 0:39:18.160 --> 0:39:21.200 David Gerro with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news 0:39:21.200 --> 0:39:25.120 this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid Biden, 0:39:25.239 --> 0:39:27.960 saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice 0:39:28.000 --> 0:39:32.239 President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee. 0:39:31.880 --> 0:39:34.000 The great Nathan Dean. I'm just delighted to hear that 0:39:34.040 --> 0:39:36.520 we have a dad with us, as we call him 0:39:36.520 --> 0:39:40.400 in Washington here, because Nathan is in touch with the clients, 0:39:40.960 --> 0:39:43.640 the people who use the terminal, the people who will 0:39:43.640 --> 0:39:46.560 trade on this information. And before we bring in Nathan, 0:39:46.600 --> 0:39:48.160 I want to tell you guys that we have heard 0:39:48.560 --> 0:39:51.200 from the nominee in waiting. We just heard from Kamala 0:39:51.239 --> 0:39:54.640 Harris in a written statement here that is full of 0:39:54.680 --> 0:39:58.200 gratitude for several paragraphs, and goes on to write, I 0:39:58.239 --> 0:40:01.280 am honored to have the President's endorsement, and my intention 0:40:01.440 --> 0:40:05.160 is to earn and win this nomination, win the word 0:40:05.200 --> 0:40:07.960 that she chooses. Over the past year, I have traveled 0:40:08.000 --> 0:40:10.960 across the country talking with Americans about the clear choice 0:40:10.960 --> 0:40:13.200 in this momentous election, and that is what I will 0:40:13.239 --> 0:40:15.319 continue to do in the days and weeks ahead. She 0:40:15.440 --> 0:40:19.600 talks about Tom and David uniting the party to defeat 0:40:19.600 --> 0:40:23.040 Donald Trump and his extreme Project twenty twenty five agenda, 0:40:23.320 --> 0:40:26.360 referring to one hundred seven days until election day. Together, 0:40:26.440 --> 0:40:29.280 she writes, we will fight, we will win. This sounds 0:40:29.320 --> 0:40:32.600 like something that is written by someone in the throes 0:40:32.680 --> 0:40:35.520 of a primary contest or potentially throwing their hat into 0:40:35.560 --> 0:40:39.359 the ring, not a sitting vice president on a remarkable day. Here, 0:40:39.719 --> 0:40:42.279 Nathan Dean, thank you for joining us. I wonder who 0:40:42.320 --> 0:40:45.160 you're hearing from today already and how this might move 0:40:45.239 --> 0:40:46.040 markets tomorrow. 0:40:47.040 --> 0:40:49.080 Well, you know that we actually put out a series 0:40:49.120 --> 0:40:51.279 of notes on Friday just on the chance. Look, and 0:40:51.320 --> 0:40:53.680 nobody knew this was going to happen, But a lot 0:40:53.680 --> 0:40:56.520 of the notes that we put out really had two focuses. Now, 0:40:56.560 --> 0:40:59.440 the first focus is the macro level. And really this election, 0:40:59.520 --> 0:41:02.320 in our view, comes down to two things, tariffs and taxes. 0:41:02.600 --> 0:41:04.840 And obviously, when tariffs with Kamala Harris, you get a 0:41:04.880 --> 0:41:07.520 very similar policy than you do to President Biden, which 0:41:07.560 --> 0:41:10.319 is drastically different than that of President Trump. You know, 0:41:10.400 --> 0:41:13.040 President Trump has called for sixty percent tariffs on item 0:41:13.120 --> 0:41:16.759 imports from China. We anticipated Kamala Harris presidency if she 0:41:16.800 --> 0:41:18.600 were to be elected, to be very similar to more 0:41:18.640 --> 0:41:22.839 targeted sector tariffs. Then you have the tax argument. Now, 0:41:22.840 --> 0:41:24.880 the tax argument is going to be a third quarter 0:41:24.960 --> 0:41:27.799 of twenty twenty five argument because the tax of the 0:41:27.920 --> 0:41:31.080 individual tax cuts for the Trump the individual tax cuts 0:41:31.239 --> 0:41:33.279 as part of the Trump tax cuts expired at the 0:41:33.360 --> 0:41:35.719 end of twenty twenty five, and we see a lot 0:41:35.760 --> 0:41:39.600 of information about terms of assistance for lower cut consumers, 0:41:39.640 --> 0:41:42.839 lower income consumers, a lot of relief for the just 0:41:42.960 --> 0:41:45.680 you know, general, lower to middle income class, and would 0:41:45.680 --> 0:41:49.080 anticipate a you know, call for a higher tax rate 0:41:49.160 --> 0:41:52.440 on individuals that are making more than four hundred thousand dollars. 0:41:52.440 --> 0:41:54.560 It's very similar to what President Biden put out. But 0:41:54.600 --> 0:41:57.200 then you also have the sector specific impacts and really 0:41:57.239 --> 0:41:59.960 what our message to clients is, it's a lot of 0:42:00.120 --> 0:42:04.279 the regulatory status quo, because you know, whether it's banks, evs, 0:42:04.320 --> 0:42:07.279 TMT and so forth like bet. We anticipate that she'd 0:42:07.320 --> 0:42:11.840 be very focused on consumer financial regulation. We anticipate that 0:42:11.880 --> 0:42:14.120 she'd probably have a continuation in terms of m and 0:42:14.120 --> 0:42:18.120 A strategy and anti big tech scrutiny like you see 0:42:18.160 --> 0:42:20.200 over at the Federal Trade Commissioner to Lena Cohn. And 0:42:20.200 --> 0:42:22.560 that's a very important point here is that if Kamala 0:42:22.560 --> 0:42:25.200 Harris were to win the presidency, I think the regulatory 0:42:25.280 --> 0:42:28.920 leadership of the Biden era regulators. You know, most of 0:42:28.920 --> 0:42:31.080 them would probably stick around for the first year of 0:42:31.080 --> 0:42:33.360 her presidency. So I think it's just a lot of 0:42:33.400 --> 0:42:36.440 status quo and very different contrasts that you would see 0:42:36.440 --> 0:42:37.440 in her a Trump presidency. 0:42:38.360 --> 0:42:40.120 Interesting, So I guess we're not going to be talking 0:42:40.120 --> 0:42:42.560 about the Kamala trade, Nathan. I've not only heard about 0:42:42.600 --> 0:42:44.719 the Trump trade for the last two weeks, but even 0:42:44.760 --> 0:42:47.279 the JD trade last week. And it's funny you're talking 0:42:47.280 --> 0:42:48.120 about Lena Kahan. 0:42:48.480 --> 0:42:48.960 Does J. D. 0:42:49.160 --> 0:42:51.439 Vance have more in common with Kamala Harris or Donald 0:42:51.480 --> 0:42:54.759 Trump when it comes to the economy and financial regulations? 0:42:55.480 --> 0:42:57.879 So, you know, it's interesting. You know, I just first state, 0:42:57.960 --> 0:42:59.719 you know, this is the vice president policy and it 0:42:59.760 --> 0:43:02.880 really depends on you know, in JD. Vance's case, if 0:43:02.920 --> 0:43:05.600 President Trump were to defer to Senator Vance in terms 0:43:05.600 --> 0:43:08.120 of you go forth and run with these policies. But 0:43:08.200 --> 0:43:11.120 if he were, Senator Vance is very much aligned with 0:43:11.200 --> 0:43:13.279 Lena Khan. In fact, there was an event at the 0:43:13.280 --> 0:43:16.720 Bloomberg DC office not long ago where he said President 0:43:16.840 --> 0:43:20.000 Lina Khan was President Biden's best pick, and he even 0:43:20.160 --> 0:43:22.040 situated last week. I don't think he would do it. 0:43:22.080 --> 0:43:24.120 That he would, you know, pushed for Lena Khan to 0:43:24.160 --> 0:43:26.920 keep her position. But that's the new reality with the 0:43:26.920 --> 0:43:30.400 Republican Party of this idea of economic populism. It's not 0:43:30.520 --> 0:43:32.680 the very old Republican Party where you can just say 0:43:32.719 --> 0:43:35.960 at a high level, Republicans equal good for a big business. 0:43:36.080 --> 0:43:38.440 It's just not the case anymore. So, you know, what 0:43:38.480 --> 0:43:41.239 we often also have to say to our clients though, 0:43:41.320 --> 0:43:43.600 is just remember a lot of this is headline risk 0:43:43.760 --> 0:43:45.560 right now. I'm not saying it's not going to turn 0:43:45.600 --> 0:43:48.040 into things come to the election time, but you will 0:43:48.040 --> 0:43:51.359 see statements from President Trump, President Biden, Senator Vance, Vice 0:43:51.360 --> 0:43:54.560 President Kamala Harris, and when they become president or vice 0:43:54.560 --> 0:43:57.359 president or are elected, then the question is, how are 0:43:57.360 --> 0:43:59.320 you going to get your plan through Congress? It's almost 0:43:59.320 --> 0:44:01.200 like the Hamilton musical again, how are you going to 0:44:01.239 --> 0:44:04.120 get your plan through? And things begin to actually dial down, 0:44:04.160 --> 0:44:06.000 you know, if they start and say I want to 0:44:06.040 --> 0:44:08.640 do a number ten on this issue, by the time 0:44:08.680 --> 0:44:10.680 they get to Congress in maybe a six or a five. 0:44:10.800 --> 0:44:13.160 So you know, just always keep in mind in terms 0:44:13.239 --> 0:44:15.920 of you know, timing and so forth for the clients 0:44:15.920 --> 0:44:19.480 that we're talking to. It's really the tariff argument first, 0:44:19.960 --> 0:44:23.840 taxes second, and then the sector arguments for each individual 0:44:23.880 --> 0:44:25.480 policies and legislation's third. 0:44:25.920 --> 0:44:28.520 Nathan, bearing in mind this is uncharted territory, I wonder 0:44:28.520 --> 0:44:31.200 what these next few months like through leading to the election. 0:44:31.800 --> 0:44:33.320 I think it's safe to say there hasn't been a 0:44:33.360 --> 0:44:36.440 whole lot of business getting done in Washington already. But 0:44:36.760 --> 0:44:38.960 how does this slow this down? You look as well 0:44:39.000 --> 0:44:41.719 at the comments that we're getting from Republicans about whether 0:44:41.800 --> 0:44:45.080 Joe Biden should step aside. Let's set that aside ourselves 0:44:45.080 --> 0:44:47.800 and just note here we have a lame duck president. 0:44:48.320 --> 0:44:50.080 History can tell us a lot about somebody in that 0:44:50.160 --> 0:44:53.719 position from a policymaking perspective, from a political perspective, what 0:44:53.960 --> 0:44:56.160 are these next few months look like given what's changed 0:44:56.160 --> 0:44:57.160 today in Washington. 0:44:57.840 --> 0:45:00.440 Well, look, Joe Biden is a lame duck starting to morning, 0:45:00.440 --> 0:45:02.359 if not this evening. So that's really there's two other 0:45:02.400 --> 0:45:05.080 avenues that we need to talk about. Versus the regulatory stuff. 0:45:05.360 --> 0:45:08.280 You will probably see President Biden PUSH's regulators to finalize 0:45:08.280 --> 0:45:10.520 their agenda as soon as possible. Now, this is going 0:45:10.600 --> 0:45:12.839 to probably come after the Congressional Review Act date. I'll 0:45:12.840 --> 0:45:14.960 spare the audience, but all just you need to know 0:45:15.160 --> 0:45:18.359 is is that any regulation that's essentially finalized from now 0:45:18.400 --> 0:45:20.600 until the end of the year could be overturned if 0:45:20.600 --> 0:45:22.960 the Republicans win a House, the Senate, and the presidency. 0:45:23.160 --> 0:45:25.879 But I would also intenicipate President Biden to look internationally. 0:45:26.120 --> 0:45:28.280 So this is something that we've seen lame duck presidents. 0:45:28.320 --> 0:45:30.040 Do you know President Obama did this in the last 0:45:30.040 --> 0:45:32.440 two years of his term. President George W. Bush did 0:45:32.440 --> 0:45:34.040 this in the last two years of the term. Because 0:45:34.040 --> 0:45:36.480 when Capitol Hill looks at the White House and says, look, 0:45:36.640 --> 0:45:38.239 I'm not going to stick my neck out for you 0:45:38.280 --> 0:45:39.960 because you're not going to be here in six months, 0:45:40.200 --> 0:45:42.719 you lose a lot of political capital. So the presidencies 0:45:42.840 --> 0:45:46.520 often look internationally. So if President Biden has the situation, 0:45:46.640 --> 0:45:48.200 I look, I know we're only three and a half year, 0:45:48.360 --> 0:45:50.680 three and a half months till the election, approximately six 0:45:50.719 --> 0:45:52.800 and a half months until we have a new president. 0:45:53.080 --> 0:45:55.400 But I wouldn't be surprised if President Biden were to, 0:45:55.600 --> 0:45:57.759 you know, take the Air Force one, if you will 0:45:58.040 --> 0:45:59.960 fly abroad and spend a little bit more time over there, 0:46:00.680 --> 0:46:02.520 just because the power of the presidency is a little 0:46:02.560 --> 0:46:04.600 bit more powerful when it comes to international relations. 0:46:05.280 --> 0:46:08.800 Nathan, do you have a good handle on what Kamala 0:46:08.840 --> 0:46:11.520 Harris's policy preferences are? We were talking about trade, talking 0:46:11.520 --> 0:46:14.040 about immigration. Obviously this was a big part of her remit. 0:46:14.080 --> 0:46:17.880 But we're learning day by day more about the junior 0:46:17.920 --> 0:46:20.400 senator from Ohio. The degree to which he's kind of 0:46:20.440 --> 0:46:22.480 an enigma in the Republican Party. That was certainly in 0:46:22.520 --> 0:46:26.000 stark relief during the course of that convention. The way 0:46:26.040 --> 0:46:29.440 that things that he supports and espouses are very separate 0:46:29.480 --> 0:46:31.520 and different from what we saw in Republicans a long 0:46:31.560 --> 0:46:36.960 time ago. How much of Kamala Harris's policy biography is discreet, 0:46:37.120 --> 0:46:39.200 is different from the man with whom she's serving. How 0:46:39.280 --> 0:46:40.560 much do we know about that at this point? 0:46:41.120 --> 0:46:43.080 So it's actually fairly light. I mean, all we're going 0:46:43.080 --> 0:46:45.440 off of. We actually had an hour long call on 0:46:45.440 --> 0:46:47.560 about this on Friday amongst the team going through all this, 0:46:47.640 --> 0:46:49.759 and it's fairly light. You know, we have to go 0:46:49.760 --> 0:46:52.120 back to our time. As Attorney General of California, she 0:46:52.239 --> 0:46:55.480 participated in a twenty five billion dollar settlement against the 0:46:55.480 --> 0:46:57.879 big banks like Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells 0:46:57.960 --> 0:47:01.600 Fargo on foreclosure practices. Now that was something that forty 0:47:01.680 --> 0:47:04.319 seven other states and the District of Columbia went through. 0:47:04.360 --> 0:47:06.920 But as her time of the Attorney General, she really 0:47:06.960 --> 0:47:11.200 made a significant push on this idea of consumer protection, 0:47:11.320 --> 0:47:14.000 especially when it comes to big business and this idea 0:47:14.000 --> 0:47:16.440 of consumer protection. So we certainly think that if she 0:47:16.520 --> 0:47:18.799 were to move forward and become the president, you could 0:47:18.800 --> 0:47:21.719 see a push on things like offering student debt relief. Look, 0:47:22.200 --> 0:47:24.040 you know, I'm not saying it's the other courts are 0:47:24.040 --> 0:47:26.040 going to allow it, but certainly the president can do 0:47:26.160 --> 0:47:29.720 that and say let's continuing with this type of relief. 0:47:30.000 --> 0:47:32.440 But then as senator, you know from California, then you 0:47:32.520 --> 0:47:34.160 become one of one hundred and it's a little bit 0:47:34.200 --> 0:47:37.160 more difficult. But what I would say is is that overall, 0:47:37.520 --> 0:47:40.439 you know, when President Biden came into office, we viewed 0:47:40.520 --> 0:47:43.160 him as a centrist president, and we think that he 0:47:43.200 --> 0:47:47.040 moved closer to Kamala Harris's policies than Kamala Harris did 0:47:47.080 --> 0:47:49.880 moving to his policies. So I think the President Biden 0:47:49.920 --> 0:47:51.680 policies that you have of today are going to be 0:47:51.760 --> 0:47:54.520 very indicative of Kamala Harris if she were to win. 0:47:54.680 --> 0:47:58.080 Nathan, thank you so much. Nathan Dean in Washington this 0:47:58.160 --> 0:48:02.680 morning again reaction the world to a president who steps aside. 0:48:03.640 --> 0:48:05.400 One headline that I saw, I believe that was the 0:48:05.520 --> 0:48:09.440 Washington Post, our special covers Joe Matthew and Washington David 0:48:09.440 --> 0:48:12.719 Gerr in New York, Tom Keene's special edition of Bloomberg 0:48:12.800 --> 0:48:18.000 Surveillance Joe Matthew stealed for a five PM Balance of Power, 0:48:18.040 --> 0:48:21.680 which we hope to see as well. Joe, you were 0:48:21.680 --> 0:48:26.040 weaned on Massachusetts politics and one of the great things 0:48:26.080 --> 0:48:30.759 of Massachusetts politics is there were Republicans and Democrats in 0:48:30.800 --> 0:48:34.719 the middle. From where you sit, Joe Matthew, is anybody 0:48:34.719 --> 0:48:38.400 out there on this Sunday afternoon, this Sunday edge of evening, 0:48:38.800 --> 0:48:40.479 is anybody in the middle? Boy? 0:48:40.640 --> 0:48:43.240 Well, if you mean in the middle between Kamala Harris 0:48:43.280 --> 0:48:45.280 and somebody else, I think that might be a question 0:48:45.320 --> 0:48:48.080 in the middle politically, I don't know. Do you think 0:48:48.120 --> 0:48:50.480 Seth Moulton, who was one of the first I think 0:48:50.560 --> 0:48:55.760 number three Democrat in Congress north Shore of Massachusetts Salem 0:48:55.760 --> 0:48:57.960 who actually called on Joe Biden to step down and 0:48:57.960 --> 0:49:00.960 called for a new generation. Yeah, remembering he was blackballed 0:49:00.960 --> 0:49:02.840 by many in the Democratic Party when he tried to 0:49:02.880 --> 0:49:06.600 run against Nancy Pelosi. But Middle I don't think is 0:49:06.640 --> 0:49:08.640 going to get you through a primary cycle here, which 0:49:08.680 --> 0:49:10.600 this feels like a lot, although I will point out 0:49:10.680 --> 0:49:14.720 this is pretty important. Gretchen Whitmer and now the governor 0:49:14.760 --> 0:49:18.520 of California, Gavin Newsom, say they will not challenge Kamala Harris. 0:49:18.560 --> 0:49:20.239 This is going to come. So it's moving in real time. 0:49:20.440 --> 0:49:22.879 I root for all of you nationwide. David is doing 0:49:22.920 --> 0:49:25.719 a much better job. Joe lives stuff. I mean, we're 0:49:25.719 --> 0:49:28.680 not like Joe, but David, it's moving in real time 0:49:29.160 --> 0:49:29.720 by this effect. 0:49:29.760 --> 0:49:31.600 And I'd love to get Joe's perspective on this. I mean, 0:49:31.600 --> 0:49:33.560 Tom asked me, Joe sort of what stood out to 0:49:33.600 --> 0:49:35.480 me about the way that this has been playing out, 0:49:35.480 --> 0:49:37.640 and I said, yes, it was that this was done 0:49:37.640 --> 0:49:39.360 in a letter and then we had the endorsement in 0:49:39.400 --> 0:49:41.440 short order and a tweet following that. But it has 0:49:41.480 --> 0:49:45.600 been the kind of mounting quantity of knock on endorsements 0:49:45.600 --> 0:49:47.400 that we've seen from members of Congress, and I'd love 0:49:47.440 --> 0:49:49.160 to just hear perspective on that. Joe how quickly this 0:49:49.160 --> 0:49:50.680 has happened, and what it says to you about the 0:49:50.680 --> 0:49:54.080 Democratic parties willing is here as I see it to Galvin, 0:49:54.160 --> 0:49:56.160 I as an orient itself around Kamala Harris. 0:49:56.880 --> 0:49:58.640 Well, it's not like they didn't have time to prepare 0:49:58.680 --> 0:50:01.000 for this. Apps and knowing that the phone calls were happening, 0:50:01.360 --> 0:50:06.440 the most important ones I've seen here CBC, CCHC. The 0:50:06.560 --> 0:50:10.200 last holdout was Jim Clyburn. You've got the Congressional Black 0:50:10.200 --> 0:50:14.200 Caucus now endorsing Harris with gratitude to Joe Biden. A 0:50:14.239 --> 0:50:17.120 great debt of gratitude, says the statement of the Congressional 0:50:17.200 --> 0:50:21.239 Hispanic Caucus chair now doing exactly the same here on X. 0:50:21.280 --> 0:50:24.120 So this this feels kind of like a coronation. But guys, 0:50:24.160 --> 0:50:26.680 you know, I have to admit I've been pushing back 0:50:26.719 --> 0:50:28.640 on a lot of this conversation over the last week 0:50:28.800 --> 0:50:30.719 because this is I thought, why we had a vice 0:50:30.760 --> 0:50:33.400 president whoever heard of blowing up the whole thing a 0:50:33.400 --> 0:50:36.160 couple of weeks before a convention when you actually have 0:50:36.280 --> 0:50:38.359 someone in waiting who shares the delegates and the money. 0:50:38.360 --> 0:50:40.440 To your point earlier, Tom, it does seem like that 0:50:40.600 --> 0:50:42.759 would have created an enormous a voice and would have 0:50:42.840 --> 0:50:44.400 insulted a lot of people. 0:50:44.480 --> 0:50:48.160 Absolutely, you're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. 0:50:48.280 --> 0:50:51.600 I'm David Durou with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Plenty ahead. 0:50:51.960 --> 0:50:53.080 This has been. 0:51:03.000 --> 0:51:06.680 Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from 0:51:06.719 --> 0:51:07.680 Bloomberg Radio. 0:51:08.239 --> 0:51:11.160 You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 0:51:11.239 --> 0:51:14.279 David Dura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news 0:51:14.280 --> 0:51:18.200 this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden 0:51:18.320 --> 0:51:21.040 saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice 0:51:21.080 --> 0:51:24.920 President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee. 0:51:25.600 --> 0:51:29.160 Joining us now is can I just say my favorite 0:51:29.239 --> 0:51:33.400 Henrietta Trees is just absolutely fabulous at Veda partners with 0:51:33.560 --> 0:51:37.440 encyclopedic knowledge of Capitol Hill. Because this is not just 0:51:37.520 --> 0:51:41.480 about the presidential election, It's about a landslide. Is the 0:51:41.520 --> 0:51:45.920 Republican speak of a Republican House, a Republican Senate with 0:51:46.000 --> 0:51:49.920 mister Trump on term two, I would note Henrietta Trees 0:51:50.000 --> 0:51:53.160 and thank you for joining Joe Matthew, David Gura and myself, 0:51:53.640 --> 0:51:57.160 Jessica Taylor over at to cook political report, writing up 0:51:57.200 --> 0:52:01.600 a single headline only days ago, Michigan Senate moves to 0:52:01.600 --> 0:52:06.880 toss up as Democrats tied to defy political gravity. You 0:52:06.920 --> 0:52:10.880 are expert on houses in Senate. Does does this news 0:52:10.920 --> 0:52:15.520 today make it less likely of a landslide? I would 0:52:15.520 --> 0:52:17.040 say a Republican landslide. 0:52:18.200 --> 0:52:22.120 Yes, thank you for having me the feelings mutual. Yes, absolutely, 0:52:22.120 --> 0:52:25.680 this makes it less of a landslide. American voters and 0:52:25.719 --> 0:52:29.040 in particular Democrats, have been primed for this chaos for 0:52:29.160 --> 0:52:32.120 months now. They knew it well before the sort of 0:52:32.120 --> 0:52:34.880 elites of the party got on board and started calling 0:52:34.880 --> 0:52:37.279 for President Biden to step aside and not run for 0:52:37.320 --> 0:52:42.120 a second term. The American public has disproportionately large support 0:52:42.280 --> 0:52:47.319 for the Senate candidates, including in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, 0:52:47.520 --> 0:52:51.080 you know, even Montana, than anything that President Biden was 0:52:51.080 --> 0:52:53.160 doing at the top of the ticket. So his decision, 0:52:53.239 --> 0:52:57.640 his sort of magnanimous and enormous decision to step aside 0:52:57.760 --> 0:53:00.680 and put Kamala at the front up a race for 0:53:00.760 --> 0:53:04.320 the vice presidential ticket, opens up a debate about which 0:53:04.400 --> 0:53:06.320 direction the party is going to go on the electoral 0:53:06.320 --> 0:53:08.840 college front. And what's interesting to me is that you know, 0:53:08.880 --> 0:53:11.760 Trump is ahead by four and a half points in Pennsylvania. 0:53:11.880 --> 0:53:15.040 Biden and Kamala Harris have been doing very well in 0:53:15.080 --> 0:53:18.800 Michigan and Wisconsin comparatively, but the next closest states in 0:53:18.920 --> 0:53:22.080 line are Georgia and then just not too far after that, 0:53:22.200 --> 0:53:25.320 North Carolina. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole Democratic 0:53:25.440 --> 0:53:29.279 Party strategy shifts to more of a southern direction. I'm 0:53:29.320 --> 0:53:32.000 especially just about to publish the electoral college map if 0:53:32.040 --> 0:53:35.480 they lose Nevada and Arizona, which they could pick it 0:53:35.560 --> 0:53:37.080 up still if they win North Carolina. 0:53:37.120 --> 0:53:39.239 And we're sick about this, David Gurrs, I first heard 0:53:39.280 --> 0:53:41.919 that from Joe Matthew. Yes, it's just incredible how that works. 0:53:41.960 --> 0:53:44.439 We've been parroting the Roy Cooper line numerous times, Joe 0:53:44.480 --> 0:53:47.960 over the course over the course of these two hours, Henryette, 0:53:47.960 --> 0:53:50.120 I want to ask you about what happened in March 0:53:50.120 --> 0:53:52.160 of twenty twenty one. That is, when Joe Biden said 0:53:52.160 --> 0:53:54.680 to Kamala Harris, I'm naming you the borders are You're 0:53:54.719 --> 0:53:58.160 going to have responsibility for the US Mexico border and 0:53:58.239 --> 0:54:00.680 policy they're going forward this This is going to be 0:54:00.760 --> 0:54:03.120 something that the specter of this decision is going to 0:54:03.160 --> 0:54:04.759 come out pretty quickly, and they're going to use it 0:54:04.760 --> 0:54:07.120 against her. How does she push back on that? You 0:54:07.160 --> 0:54:09.840 look at what's happened here in recent months, the number 0:54:09.880 --> 0:54:12.480 of border guard interactions with folks crossing the border has 0:54:12.520 --> 0:54:15.360 gone down. There has been progress here. How much is 0:54:15.400 --> 0:54:18.040 that going to stick with the electorate. How effectively do 0:54:18.080 --> 0:54:19.759 you think the Trump campaign would be able to use 0:54:19.800 --> 0:54:22.400 that against Kamala Harris if indeed she is the nominee 0:54:22.440 --> 0:54:23.080 here going forward. 0:54:24.360 --> 0:54:28.120 It's fascinating voter opinion where they have immigration is the 0:54:28.160 --> 0:54:31.720 number one issue. These are disproportionately white, male, middle aged 0:54:31.840 --> 0:54:33.759 voters who are going to be in the Trump camp. 0:54:33.800 --> 0:54:36.960 I think no matter what Democrats convey or Kamala Harris 0:54:37.000 --> 0:54:39.600 conveys about the facts on the ground, I've been marketing, 0:54:39.600 --> 0:54:41.960 you know, obviously, all the time since February. 0:54:42.360 --> 0:54:45.240 And one of the most striking things the constant. 0:54:44.960 --> 0:54:48.520 Request I get for information after our meetings is whenever 0:54:48.560 --> 0:54:51.560 I say, you know, border crossings are down fifty four percent, 0:54:51.600 --> 0:54:54.319 they're down forty percent. They're now at the lowest point 0:54:54.360 --> 0:54:57.440 they have been even since before Biden took office, and 0:54:57.520 --> 0:55:00.200 everybody has to fact check that because it sounds so 0:55:00.760 --> 0:55:03.799 disjointed from what we hear either at the RNC or 0:55:03.880 --> 0:55:05.360 you for the last four years. 0:55:05.600 --> 0:55:07.880 So I think that there's a big education. 0:55:07.600 --> 0:55:11.120 Process that the Kamala Harris and whoever her VP is 0:55:11.160 --> 0:55:14.279 going to be next and President Biden to explain that 0:55:14.320 --> 0:55:17.880 in the last six months they have gotten immigration crossings 0:55:17.920 --> 0:55:20.600 at the border below the level of even when they 0:55:20.640 --> 0:55:23.120 took office. So that message is going to have to 0:55:23.120 --> 0:55:25.920 get across, for sure, mostly to Democratic voters, and I 0:55:25.920 --> 0:55:29.440 would also say suburban white voters like those in Indiana 0:55:29.480 --> 0:55:31.759 who have voted twenty two percent for Nikki Hayley just 0:55:31.800 --> 0:55:35.560 a few weeks back. Land. 0:55:35.680 --> 0:55:37.839 You back to this tweet from jd Vance that has 0:55:37.840 --> 0:55:40.200 a lot of us talking in the wake of Milwaukee, 0:55:40.200 --> 0:55:42.799 where we heard from a number of Republican lawmakers who 0:55:42.880 --> 0:55:45.560 said there's no way that if Joe Biden drops out 0:55:45.600 --> 0:55:47.839 of this race, he can continue serving out the rest 0:55:47.840 --> 0:55:51.000 of this term. Jd Vance saying there is no middle 0:55:51.040 --> 0:55:53.960 ground running for reelection would be a clear admission that 0:55:54.040 --> 0:55:56.720 Trump was right all along about Biden not being mentally 0:55:56.719 --> 0:55:59.600 fit enough to serve as commander in chief. Donald Trump 0:55:59.640 --> 0:56:02.839 puts on truth social following the news today Crooked Joe 0:56:02.880 --> 0:56:05.040 just got knocked out. So now I'll have to do 0:56:05.120 --> 0:56:08.120 it a fourth time. I guess my question is, how 0:56:08.239 --> 0:56:10.560 likely is it if Donald Trump wins another term, will 0:56:10.600 --> 0:56:12.800 he be the forty seventh or forty eighth president. 0:56:15.680 --> 0:56:18.400 I would say if he were to win another term, 0:56:18.680 --> 0:56:20.000 it would be this next time around. 0:56:20.040 --> 0:56:20.920 If that's what you're getting at. 0:56:20.960 --> 0:56:23.040 I mean, I do think it's a false construct to 0:56:23.120 --> 0:56:25.640 come in the way that Jadie Vance does in his 0:56:25.640 --> 0:56:27.520 tweet and say, you know, Biden need But could we. 0:56:27.520 --> 0:56:30.280 Be in a world in which Kamala Harris finds herself 0:56:30.320 --> 0:56:33.920 president of the United States before November and then Donald 0:56:33.920 --> 0:56:35.680 Trump serves another term? 0:56:35.840 --> 0:56:38.719 No, No, I mean, first of all, the challenger doesn't 0:56:38.719 --> 0:56:40.719 get to dictate the terms of the boots on the 0:56:40.719 --> 0:56:44.000 ground reality. Brden is president. There is not another election 0:56:44.080 --> 0:56:46.480 between now and then. Kamala is not gonna, you know, 0:56:46.520 --> 0:56:48.319 step in and you surp his role. This is why 0:56:48.320 --> 0:56:50.719 there's succession, as you just discussed, you know, this is 0:56:50.719 --> 0:56:53.200 what it says in the constitution. So he finishes his term, 0:56:53.280 --> 0:56:56.160 he's not running for another term, and he's decided that 0:56:56.239 --> 0:56:57.880 he's going to endorse Kamala and we'll go through the 0:56:57.880 --> 0:57:00.640 process of the DNC. But no, I don't expect Biden 0:57:00.680 --> 0:57:02.040 to step down. And I think it's a sort of 0:57:02.040 --> 0:57:04.719 a false construct to think that the challenger has any 0:57:04.760 --> 0:57:06.359 say in who the current president is. 0:57:07.680 --> 0:57:10.279 Not to suggest as much, but Joe Biden might find 0:57:10.280 --> 0:57:12.280 that he cannot finish out the rest of this term. 0:57:12.440 --> 0:57:15.040 Kamala Harris would then have to step in. Donald Trump 0:57:15.080 --> 0:57:17.480 could still win the election. I guess I'm just wondering 0:57:17.480 --> 0:57:19.400 if we should all be calling, you know, talking about 0:57:19.560 --> 0:57:22.120 the possibility of Trump forty seven when it could be 0:57:22.200 --> 0:57:24.720 forty eight. What makes you so sure Joe Biden can 0:57:24.760 --> 0:57:25.640 finish out the rest. 0:57:25.520 --> 0:57:26.040 Of his term. 0:57:26.960 --> 0:57:30.480 Well, I'm not his healthcare provider or anything along those lines, 0:57:30.840 --> 0:57:37.320 but I don't think that a groundswell push that has 0:57:37.360 --> 0:57:40.680 successfully gotten him to not run for a second term 0:57:40.720 --> 0:57:43.640 would be effective in trying to get him to resign quickly. 0:57:43.840 --> 0:57:47.080 That's not what the Democratic Party is asking for, That's 0:57:47.120 --> 0:57:48.560 not what the delegates are asking for. 0:57:49.200 --> 0:57:50.440 So I'm not expecting. 0:57:50.760 --> 0:57:52.800 David Gerry, have you seen any more news here, any 0:57:52.840 --> 0:57:55.200 more comments from people I see? I'm watching Fox here 0:57:55.240 --> 0:57:57.800 with our great TV setup here, it's going to be 0:57:57.960 --> 0:58:01.720 fascinating to see the response of the Republicans all this. 0:58:01.800 --> 0:58:03.960 Have you seen any new colors too? 0:58:04.040 --> 0:58:06.520 And see my eye drifting over to Fox News where 0:58:06.520 --> 0:58:08.880 the Chiron was saying Democrats divided. And I will say 0:58:08.880 --> 0:58:11.520 from all that I've read the great summary that we've 0:58:11.520 --> 0:58:14.200 gotten on our top live blog on the Bloomberg, it 0:58:14.240 --> 0:58:16.800 doesn't seem like there is a ton of division within 0:58:16.800 --> 0:58:18.560 the Democrats who have waited on this. Yes, there were 0:58:18.600 --> 0:58:22.160 some like Governor Evers who were withholding an explicit nomination, 0:58:22.280 --> 0:58:24.800 but a lot of people getting in line and endorsing 0:58:24.840 --> 0:58:26.800 Kamala Harris as the nominee. 0:58:26.840 --> 0:58:27.120 I see. 0:58:27.120 --> 0:58:29.480 You know we spoke earlier about President Clinton and Secretary 0:58:29.560 --> 0:58:34.160 Clinton endorsing Kamala Harris in a joint statement. Another married couple, 0:58:34.200 --> 0:58:37.160 Senator Kelly and Gabby Gifford's doing the same thing as well. 0:58:37.200 --> 0:58:38.960 Senator Kelly is somebody we were talking about a little 0:58:39.000 --> 0:58:40.800 earlier on the show as somebody who could be seen 0:58:40.800 --> 0:58:45.720 as a potential nominee, somebody who former astronaut, maybe combat pilot. 0:58:46.360 --> 0:58:48.360 Could he be somebody who woud seek the presidency? 0:58:48.680 --> 0:58:50.760 Yeah? But can he take Pennsylvania. 0:58:50.880 --> 0:58:55.120 Well, he indicating he's no longer no longer interested in 0:58:55.160 --> 0:58:55.480 doing that. 0:58:56.040 --> 0:58:56.280 Yeah. 0:58:56.360 --> 0:58:59.160 Yeah, But to that point, Henrietta, let me ask you 0:58:59.400 --> 0:59:01.160 sort of who you're looking at as we kind of 0:59:01.160 --> 0:59:03.840 look at all of these names and statements coming out here, 0:59:04.160 --> 0:59:05.880 who do you want to hear from? And Joe mentioning 0:59:05.960 --> 0:59:08.280 just moments ago the importance of hearing from Jim Clyburn, 0:59:08.320 --> 0:59:11.840 who essentially annointed Joe Biden to winning the nomination the 0:59:11.920 --> 0:59:14.120 last time around. Are there any that you haven't heard 0:59:14.160 --> 0:59:16.000 from yet? Who do you think is that has the 0:59:16.000 --> 0:59:19.160 most signal importance here as we put together those endorsements 0:59:19.160 --> 0:59:20.200 in the coming hours. 0:59:21.120 --> 0:59:24.200 Well, I didn't realize it was such common understanding already, 0:59:24.200 --> 0:59:25.840 But I do think that a lot of attention to 0:59:26.000 --> 0:59:28.880 be paid on North Carolina and Georgia right now, and 0:59:28.920 --> 0:59:34.800 that strategy Arizona would be a fantastic thing to be 0:59:34.840 --> 0:59:37.680 able to keep in your back pocket for the Democratic Party. 0:59:37.680 --> 0:59:40.880 But if you're following it all the primary data and 0:59:40.920 --> 0:59:44.760 the voting registration and responses coming in there now, which 0:59:44.800 --> 0:59:47.960 is being published weekly, Republicans are far and away ahead 0:59:47.960 --> 0:59:48.640 in Arizona. 0:59:48.720 --> 0:59:51.080 So when you look at the in just as the 0:59:51.120 --> 0:59:51.840 case in Nevada. 0:59:51.920 --> 0:59:53.760 So as you look at who could be the vice 0:59:53.800 --> 0:59:56.640 presidential nominee, you know, a Roy Cooper kind of name 0:59:56.680 --> 0:59:59.320 in North Carolina makes a lot more sense than a 0:59:59.400 --> 1:00:02.400 Mark Kelly. If they're going to pursue that strategy, which 1:00:02.400 --> 1:00:06.120 I assume they would, I wouldn't anticipate Raphael Warnock being involved, 1:00:06.120 --> 1:00:09.600 but I do think that it's really a concentration on 1:00:09.640 --> 1:00:11.760 the swing states. It's my expectation that you're not going 1:00:11.800 --> 1:00:13.360 to see two women on the tickets, so that takes 1:00:13.440 --> 1:00:15.800 Gretch and Whitmer off the table, even though Michigan would 1:00:15.800 --> 1:00:18.880 be very nice to have some additional shoring up. But 1:00:18.960 --> 1:00:23.320 Shapiro in Pennsylvania also makes sense. Pritzker and Illinois has 1:00:23.320 --> 1:00:25.560 talked about a lot, but my personal focus for the 1:00:25.560 --> 1:00:27.280 next couple weeks is going to be on North Carolina 1:00:27.360 --> 1:00:29.160 and Georgia, and I assume that's the direction. 1:00:28.880 --> 1:00:32.080 They're going to go with good reason, Henrietta. When you 1:00:32.120 --> 1:00:34.280 consider the next three weeks, typically you'd want to roll 1:00:34.320 --> 1:00:36.840 out something like this as soon as you can. Following 1:00:36.840 --> 1:00:40.880 your opponent's political convention. The RNC is behind us, Donald 1:00:40.920 --> 1:00:44.400 Trump and JD Vance are already traveling together. How sure. 1:00:44.640 --> 1:00:47.280 Does this ticket need to be before we get into 1:00:47.360 --> 1:00:50.080 Chicago or will this running be decided there? 1:00:51.680 --> 1:00:53.280 I don't think it needs to be sure at all. 1:00:53.320 --> 1:00:56.480 I mean, think of Trump announcing Jadie Vance on Monday 1:00:56.720 --> 1:00:59.040 of the convention. You know, it really doesn't be for 1:00:59.080 --> 1:01:01.640 a few more weeks. Certainly the delegates are going to 1:01:01.640 --> 1:01:04.080 be meeting the Roles Committee and all those groups, but 1:01:04.360 --> 1:01:06.080 you don't need to have a nominee for a while. 1:01:06.240 --> 1:01:08.280 But what I would encourage investors to think about is 1:01:08.280 --> 1:01:08.920 that Trump is. 1:01:08.880 --> 1:01:11.240 At very high numbers in the polls right now, well 1:01:11.280 --> 1:01:14.080 above where he has been leading Biden in all year, 1:01:14.440 --> 1:01:17.800 thirty four points five or six in some states. So 1:01:17.960 --> 1:01:20.240 ask yourself sort of the trajectory of what's going to 1:01:20.280 --> 1:01:22.720 happen from here. We have of all the names we 1:01:22.840 --> 1:01:25.480 just listed on the shortlist for VP, almost none of 1:01:25.560 --> 1:01:28.560 them have written name recognition that's above fifty percent. So 1:01:28.920 --> 1:01:31.480 there's going to be a tremendous amount of focus on 1:01:31.520 --> 1:01:34.400 this seismic event because it is so massive to sort 1:01:34.400 --> 1:01:37.160 of the process of democracy, and that's naturally going to 1:01:37.200 --> 1:01:41.080 attach attract eyeballs. What we're going to see is massive 1:01:41.160 --> 1:01:44.240 name recognition shift the polls. I think pretty materially my 1:01:44.360 --> 1:01:46.440 expectation as we start off at a deficit, I'm going 1:01:46.520 --> 1:01:48.520 to start treating Trump as though he is the incumbent 1:01:48.800 --> 1:01:51.240 because he's been president for you know, it's obviously a 1:01:51.240 --> 1:01:52.680 little bit of a gray area. So I'm going to 1:01:52.680 --> 1:01:56.080 see want to see Kamala above try out by three 1:01:56.200 --> 1:01:58.320 or four points in these swing states in order to 1:01:58.480 --> 1:02:01.320 think that she could reasonably win them. That's going to 1:02:01.320 --> 1:02:02.960 be the strategy. I think poling is going to move 1:02:03.000 --> 1:02:04.760 a lot in the next couple of weeks, which. 1:02:06.960 --> 1:02:09.720 Henrietta, you and Terryans have been just great about that. 1:02:09.880 --> 1:02:13.560 I'm really interested in what the polls show. Henrietta Trey's 1:02:13.720 --> 1:02:16.440 Vada partner somehow. I think we'll speak tomorrow. Thank you 1:02:16.520 --> 1:02:19.320 so much for being with this. 1:02:19.680 --> 1:02:22.560 You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 1:02:22.600 --> 1:02:24.640 David Dura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. 1:02:25.120 --> 1:02:25.680 We you ahead. 1:02:26.080 --> 1:02:38.640 This is Believe. Welcome back to a special edition of 1:02:38.680 --> 1:02:41.280 Bloomberg Surveillance from Bloomberg Radio. 1:02:41.920 --> 1:02:44.880 You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 1:02:44.960 --> 1:02:48.000 David Dua with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking News 1:02:48.000 --> 1:02:51.240 this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his re election bid, 1:02:51.560 --> 1:02:54.480 Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed 1:02:54.520 --> 1:02:57.400 Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the 1:02:57.400 --> 1:02:58.600 Democratic nominee. 1:02:58.880 --> 1:03:02.280 Let us listen Thursday to the vice President of the 1:03:02.400 --> 1:03:03.760 United States. 1:03:03.520 --> 1:03:06.840 Donald Trump were to win in November. He will continue 1:03:06.880 --> 1:03:11.720 to sell out working families, he will continue to attack 1:03:11.960 --> 1:03:21.240 reproductive freedom, and he will continue to undermine our democracy. 1:03:21.320 --> 1:03:24.760 The Vice President of the United States here on this 1:03:25.040 --> 1:03:27.240 very special Sunday that was done a few days ago. 1:03:27.360 --> 1:03:30.400 Joe Matthew, your thoughts here as we move up towards 1:03:30.440 --> 1:03:31.400 your balance of power. 1:03:31.720 --> 1:03:34.240 We heard from JD Vance a short time ago. This 1:03:34.320 --> 1:03:37.120 is the latest since the decision. Joe Biden has been 1:03:37.120 --> 1:03:39.560 the worst president in my lifetime. In Kamala Harris right 1:03:39.600 --> 1:03:41.600 there with him every step of the way. This is 1:03:41.640 --> 1:03:44.360 going to be the message here that nothing has changed. 1:03:44.800 --> 1:03:47.240 Remember what we talked about in Milwaukee. This is the 1:03:47.320 --> 1:03:50.080 same person with a different name. Wait for her to 1:03:50.120 --> 1:03:52.000 show up at the debate with Donald Trump, which I 1:03:52.000 --> 1:03:54.160 will submit is going to be a lot more challenging 1:03:54.200 --> 1:03:56.080 for him than the one he just went through. What 1:03:56.160 --> 1:03:58.919 the line from the Republican Party is what you see 1:03:58.920 --> 1:04:01.240 here is the same as well, you had. We just 1:04:01.360 --> 1:04:03.360 beat Joe Biden. Now we have to do it again 1:04:03.400 --> 1:04:04.280 with Kamala Harris. 1:04:04.520 --> 1:04:06.240 Picking up on something you mentioned there, Joe, I mean, 1:04:06.280 --> 1:04:08.800 I look back at the interview that Bloomberg BusinessWeek did 1:04:08.800 --> 1:04:11.080 with Donald Trump. He said this very explicitly. I think 1:04:11.080 --> 1:04:13.680 they asked him in that interview, Nancy Cook, Bradstone and 1:04:13.920 --> 1:04:16.120 our other colleagues asking him sort of what difference it 1:04:16.160 --> 1:04:19.080 would make if the nominee wasn't going to be Joe Biden. 1:04:19.080 --> 1:04:21.360 And what he said was effectively, the campaign is the same. 1:04:21.800 --> 1:04:23.720 The way that they plan on waging this is the same. 1:04:23.760 --> 1:04:26.720 And Tom, I think that'll be fascinating to see how 1:04:26.760 --> 1:04:28.520 true that is here as we move ahead. 1:04:28.720 --> 1:04:31.880 Joining us right now on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, and 1:04:31.920 --> 1:04:35.960 on YouTube. Is the most important person for us and Washington. 1:04:36.080 --> 1:04:39.600 She's Margaret Collins. She's the one that takes care of 1:04:39.600 --> 1:04:42.240 me and Washington gets me through the day somehow, and 1:04:42.320 --> 1:04:45.680 herds cats to the tune of any really David any 1:04:45.880 --> 1:04:49.480 Washington News bureau. The person running the news bureau. It's 1:04:49.520 --> 1:04:50.800 like the worst job at any. 1:04:50.640 --> 1:04:52.720 News Oh, it's a big job. I'll say that I 1:04:52.720 --> 1:04:54.120 would call it the worst, but she does. 1:04:55.440 --> 1:04:59.800 Peggy Collins joins us here on this historic Sunday, Peggy 1:05:00.160 --> 1:05:03.760 to talk about western Massachusetts, because I can remember times 1:05:03.760 --> 1:05:08.440 where Massachusetts surprised me on the edge of a purple state. 1:05:08.520 --> 1:05:10.640 You're out of the College of the Holy Cross, which 1:05:10.680 --> 1:05:15.200 is from Boston, far western Massachusetts. From your reporting and 1:05:15.240 --> 1:05:17.880 all the sources you have at our Washington News Bureau, 1:05:18.400 --> 1:05:22.040 would you assume that purple states became more purple this 1:05:22.120 --> 1:05:23.080 Sunday afternoon? 1:05:24.440 --> 1:05:27.320 Well, I think Tom, it remains to be seen, you know, 1:05:27.400 --> 1:05:30.320 sitting here today in this Washington Bureau that you just 1:05:30.440 --> 1:05:35.280 mentioned with colleagues like our great Joe Matthew and you, 1:05:35.360 --> 1:05:37.680 as you're saying when you're visiting, it's just a historic 1:05:37.800 --> 1:05:41.240 day here in Washington. But there are you know, still 1:05:41.240 --> 1:05:44.600 several months ago, we're coming off of the Republican National 1:05:44.640 --> 1:05:48.600 Convention in Milwaukee, where the Republicans were riding high really 1:05:48.640 --> 1:05:51.920 feeling like that map that you're talking about blue, red, 1:05:51.960 --> 1:05:55.440 purple had really opened up over the last few weeks 1:05:55.440 --> 1:05:59.360 after Biden's disastrous debate, and they were talking about states 1:05:59.400 --> 1:06:03.720 being in play, like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia. But I 1:06:03.760 --> 1:06:06.720 do think, as David was just mentioning, it's going to 1:06:06.840 --> 1:06:09.640 be interesting to see where the pools land over the 1:06:09.680 --> 1:06:12.720 next several days, now that Trump is no longer going 1:06:12.760 --> 1:06:14.960 to be running against Biden, and you're going to have, 1:06:15.080 --> 1:06:17.480 no matter what, the younger candidate, you could have a 1:06:17.520 --> 1:06:21.120 woman candidate, and I think it will change the landscape 1:06:21.160 --> 1:06:21.600 for sure. 1:06:22.760 --> 1:06:27.680 Joe Matthew, excuse me, Joe Matthew. There are important Congress people, 1:06:28.120 --> 1:06:32.480 and then there's the most important Congress person for President. 1:06:32.120 --> 1:06:35.960 Biden, the man who brung him, as Joe Biden likes 1:06:36.000 --> 1:06:40.120 to say, Jim Clyburn now making it official endorsing Kamala 1:06:40.160 --> 1:06:43.520 Harris with a lengthy statement Tom that of course begins 1:06:43.560 --> 1:06:47.360 with a lengthy paragraph talking about the honor and privilege 1:06:47.400 --> 1:06:49.760 of calling Joe Biden a friend, but it ends with 1:06:49.840 --> 1:06:52.520 the endorsement I echo the good judgment he demonstrated, and 1:06:52.600 --> 1:06:56.040 selecting Vice President Harris to lead this nation alongside him, 1:06:56.240 --> 1:06:58.760 and proud to follow his lead in support for candidacy 1:06:58.800 --> 1:07:03.000 to succeed him as the party's nominee for President Peggy Collins. 1:07:03.000 --> 1:07:05.520 This is a pretty big moment and the Democrats supporting 1:07:05.600 --> 1:07:08.080 Kamala Harris, who have been very worried about this being 1:07:08.160 --> 1:07:11.280 blown into an open fight, are probably breathing a sigh 1:07:11.320 --> 1:07:13.840 of relief. Now is the idea of a contested convention 1:07:14.000 --> 1:07:14.800 now off the table? 1:07:16.200 --> 1:07:18.160 I don't think it's off the table, Joe, But the 1:07:18.200 --> 1:07:21.000 signs that we're seeing from our reporting so far is 1:07:21.040 --> 1:07:24.600 that quickly a number of key Democrats, including the Clintons, 1:07:25.000 --> 1:07:27.800 are coming out and endorsing Harris. So the current right 1:07:27.840 --> 1:07:30.880 now seems to be going in her direction without any 1:07:30.960 --> 1:07:35.040 big names that have been talked about, Whitmer, Pritzker, Newsomb, 1:07:35.120 --> 1:07:37.920 you know, coming out yet to challenge. They don't have 1:07:38.040 --> 1:07:41.440 a lot of time left before the Democratic National Convention 1:07:41.600 --> 1:07:45.000 starts on August nineteenth, so the question of whether or 1:07:45.040 --> 1:07:48.680 not the party can hold together behind a candidate between 1:07:48.680 --> 1:07:50.520 now and then is critical. 1:07:51.320 --> 1:07:51.640 Peggy. 1:07:51.720 --> 1:07:55.200 I think of the old Hemingway quote about Bankruptcley slowly 1:07:55.360 --> 1:07:57.920 than all at once as I think about how all 1:07:57.960 --> 1:08:00.760 of this happened, and there was the beginning a handful 1:08:00.800 --> 1:08:03.840 of Congress people who raised alarm about this suggested that 1:08:03.880 --> 1:08:06.080 Joe Biden should drop out. That began to build over 1:08:06.120 --> 1:08:09.240 the last few days that's gotten us to this moment. 1:08:09.880 --> 1:08:12.560 What is your perspective on the timing of all of this. 1:08:12.720 --> 1:08:14.400 You know, we have a few weeks here till the convention, 1:08:14.640 --> 1:08:18.040 one hundred and seven days until the election itself. I 1:08:18.080 --> 1:08:19.960 guess what I'm asking you is is what took the 1:08:19.960 --> 1:08:22.160 president so long as we sort of saw the writing 1:08:22.200 --> 1:08:24.960 on the wall, and how much does that sort of 1:08:25.800 --> 1:08:28.559 not damage the Democratic Party here going forward but set 1:08:28.600 --> 1:08:32.000 them back? Yes, he had COVID, Yes he was road 1:08:32.040 --> 1:08:34.720 with Beach Delaware fighting that and thinking through all of this. 1:08:34.800 --> 1:08:36.479 But what do you make of how long this took 1:08:36.479 --> 1:08:39.519 in light of that poor debate performance and what happens since? 1:08:40.600 --> 1:08:42.360 Well, I think a couple of things, David, As you 1:08:42.439 --> 1:08:45.280 mentioned the debate performance June twenty seventh, but you know, 1:08:45.320 --> 1:08:49.080 we were working furiously through July fourth weekend because cracks 1:08:49.080 --> 1:08:52.240 had already started to form then. So he held on 1:08:52.360 --> 1:08:55.160 for weeks. He held on through NATO, which was happening 1:08:55.200 --> 1:08:58.800 here in Washington after July fourth weekend, and then he 1:08:58.880 --> 1:09:00.840 went through the presser but didn't knock it. 1:09:00.800 --> 1:09:01.519 Out of the park. 1:09:01.720 --> 1:09:05.720 It was okay after the NATO meeting, and I think 1:09:05.760 --> 1:09:08.960 it's this past week the mountain of pressure that just 1:09:09.080 --> 1:09:12.000 kept building and more and more people coming out, even 1:09:12.040 --> 1:09:16.400 while the Republicans were convening in Milwaukee and either even 1:09:16.479 --> 1:09:20.679 after the attemptive assassination with Trump that certain key people 1:09:20.720 --> 1:09:23.479 came out and called for the President to step aside 1:09:23.640 --> 1:09:25.840 in the race. I will also note, when you think 1:09:25.880 --> 1:09:28.360 about the last time this happened in nineteen sixty eight 1:09:28.439 --> 1:09:31.880 with LBJ, he didn't address from the Oval Office. That 1:09:32.000 --> 1:09:34.240 surprised the nation at the time to say he was 1:09:34.280 --> 1:09:36.840 not going to seek reelection. In this case, I think 1:09:36.880 --> 1:09:39.880 Biden really truly was trying to hold on and thought 1:09:39.920 --> 1:09:41.880 he might be able to make a case to stay 1:09:41.920 --> 1:09:44.920 in the race. But ultimately the pressure just broke that 1:09:45.080 --> 1:09:47.519 damn and he had to make the announcement in a 1:09:47.600 --> 1:09:52.080 statement over Twitter because he's dealing with COVID in Rehova speech. 1:09:52.200 --> 1:09:54.160 So I think it's not the way they wanted to 1:09:54.200 --> 1:09:56.400 do it, certainly, and I think he was fighting to 1:09:56.439 --> 1:09:57.479 the bitter end to hold on. 1:09:57.840 --> 1:10:00.639 Peggy, what's that speech going to be? Like alluded to 1:10:00.760 --> 1:10:03.120 in that note to the American people, He's going to 1:10:03.160 --> 1:10:06.000 explain his decision more in the coming days. Here, What 1:10:06.000 --> 1:10:08.040 do you what do our colleagues expect in terms of 1:10:08.080 --> 1:10:11.479 both presentation, what we're likely to hear from the President, 1:10:11.680 --> 1:10:13.479 any sense at this point of how much that's going 1:10:13.520 --> 1:10:15.680 to mirror what we got from LBJ in nineteen sixty eight. 1:10:16.840 --> 1:10:19.479 I think we're still reporting out when exactly that will 1:10:19.520 --> 1:10:22.840 be and where he will do it. We think that 1:10:22.920 --> 1:10:25.400 it would likely be from the White House. But I 1:10:25.400 --> 1:10:27.600 think in terms of the themes we expect him to 1:10:27.640 --> 1:10:31.280 hit so far, would certainly be on democracy. That's something 1:10:31.320 --> 1:10:35.000 that he really hammered in on before the midterms a 1:10:35.040 --> 1:10:37.520 couple of years ago and had a lot of resonance. 1:10:37.560 --> 1:10:39.679 But I do think it's one thing that he really 1:10:39.720 --> 1:10:41.840 had said time and time again that he feels like 1:10:41.880 --> 1:10:44.519 this is an election where democracy is on the line, 1:10:44.840 --> 1:10:48.760 and he feels like he has held up democracy here 1:10:48.800 --> 1:10:51.240 in the country. So we expect that and also expect 1:10:51.320 --> 1:10:54.240 him to note a couple of his key achievements, that 1:10:54.360 --> 1:10:57.840 being the huge infrastructure spending bill that he got passed 1:10:57.840 --> 1:11:01.280 through and the Inflation Act that has a lot of 1:11:01.640 --> 1:11:06.280 future spending on things like energy efficiency electric vehicles, which 1:11:06.280 --> 1:11:08.840 of course the Republicans have attacked. But I think he 1:11:08.960 --> 1:11:13.320 will hone in on some of his legislative achievements and 1:11:13.439 --> 1:11:15.640 harken back to like where he started and what he 1:11:15.680 --> 1:11:17.799 wanted to do when he first became president. 1:11:19.160 --> 1:11:20.680 Peggy, what do you think of the fact that this 1:11:20.760 --> 1:11:23.320 rolled out on Twitter? Is Joe Biden not physically well 1:11:23.400 --> 1:11:25.720 enough to address the American people? Shouldn't this be an 1:11:25.720 --> 1:11:26.800 oval office address? 1:11:28.200 --> 1:11:30.960 You asked a delicate question, Joe Matthew I thought of 1:11:30.960 --> 1:11:33.960 that driving in here. I mean, you really wonder at 1:11:34.000 --> 1:11:37.080 the pace of this. Thank you Joe for asking't it? Peggy? 1:11:38.280 --> 1:11:40.640 I think COVID is one hundred percent a factor. I 1:11:40.680 --> 1:11:44.639 think you know, he wasn't looking good last week when 1:11:44.640 --> 1:11:47.760 they announced that he was he had COVID and was 1:11:47.760 --> 1:11:50.400 going to need to isolate. And I think we're on 1:11:50.439 --> 1:11:53.200 a Sunday and we're going into the week markets are 1:11:53.200 --> 1:11:55.800 going to open in Asia. I think they really did 1:11:55.880 --> 1:11:58.200 feel like, with the mountain of pressure that they needed 1:11:58.240 --> 1:12:00.920 to make a decision. They couldn't just leave it hanging 1:12:00.960 --> 1:12:02.800 in the air in terms of the good for the 1:12:02.840 --> 1:12:05.479 party over the next several days. But I don't think 1:12:05.520 --> 1:12:08.559 this is the ideal scenario for how they would have 1:12:08.720 --> 1:12:11.839 liked to do it. And because he is still recovering 1:12:11.840 --> 1:12:14.479 from COVID, so therefore or can't do a public address 1:12:14.520 --> 1:12:15.680 the way they might have wanted to. 1:12:15.920 --> 1:12:20.479 Margaret Collins, our Washington newsbrial chief, a lengthy Sunday to 1:12:20.520 --> 1:12:22.240 say the least, thank you so much for you and 1:12:22.320 --> 1:12:26.599 your team's effort in Washington. There is a view from 1:12:26.640 --> 1:12:31.080 sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. It is a different view on 1:12:31.120 --> 1:12:34.960 this Sunday afternoon, David Gura, Jordan Fabian has been seeing 1:12:35.040 --> 1:12:37.000 it from there to Delaware. 1:12:37.600 --> 1:12:39.800 Jordan, great to have you with us here for your 1:12:40.000 --> 1:12:42.439 perspective on this as well. And maybe I can put 1:12:42.439 --> 1:12:44.360 to you a variation of the question that I asked Peggy, 1:12:44.400 --> 1:12:47.360 which is what has this weekend been like? What has 1:12:47.400 --> 1:12:51.040 the build been like in recent days to this moment? 1:12:51.240 --> 1:12:55.160 You charting the president's state of mind and what he's 1:12:55.200 --> 1:12:57.320 been up to. And in Rehoboth Beach where he has 1:12:57.320 --> 1:13:00.760 a home, what finally broke the dam? Final convinced him 1:13:00.920 --> 1:13:03.479 from your reporting, what convinced him that this was the 1:13:03.520 --> 1:13:04.080 decision that he. 1:13:04.040 --> 1:13:04.439 Had to make. 1:13:04.720 --> 1:13:07.519 Yeah, Look, he's been under just relentless pressure from his 1:13:07.640 --> 1:13:11.280 allies even after he was diagnosed with COVID. Last week 1:13:11.640 --> 1:13:15.320 he saw at least a dozen other Democratic lawmakers come out, 1:13:15.400 --> 1:13:18.479 and so it appeared the pressure just became unbearable. It's 1:13:18.520 --> 1:13:21.479 still surprising though, I mean, Biden has been, you know, 1:13:21.479 --> 1:13:25.360 a stubborn guy throughout his career. In the weeks prior, 1:13:25.439 --> 1:13:27.680 it seemed like the pressure was only causing him to 1:13:27.720 --> 1:13:30.840 dig in further. But you know, perhaps weekend, by COVID, 1:13:31.160 --> 1:13:33.479 sitting at home in Rehoboth Beach with his family and 1:13:33.520 --> 1:13:36.759 close advisors, they were able to step back and reflect 1:13:37.080 --> 1:13:39.599 and just see the picture that a past the victories 1:13:39.720 --> 1:13:41.519 against Donald Trump just wasn't tenable. 1:13:44.280 --> 1:13:47.759 What happens, go ahead, go ahead, shoe yes, sorry, David. 1:13:47.840 --> 1:13:50.240 What happens with this meeting with Benjamin Nettan ya who 1:13:50.520 --> 1:13:52.519 this week? Some thought that would be a reason for 1:13:52.640 --> 1:13:55.160 Joe Biden to postpone a statement like this. He still 1:13:55.200 --> 1:13:57.360 plans to meet with the prime minister. Does this go 1:13:57.479 --> 1:13:58.360 as schedules? 1:13:59.600 --> 1:14:01.840 There's a lot of uncertainty right now, and so I 1:14:01.840 --> 1:14:04.760 don't want to say anything definitively, but we haven't heard 1:14:04.800 --> 1:14:08.280 otherwise that that's rescheduled. The President did indicate in his 1:14:08.400 --> 1:14:11.160 statement that he's going to serve out his term, so 1:14:11.479 --> 1:14:14.679 an official act like that, like meeting with the leader 1:14:14.720 --> 1:14:16.960 of Israel would seem to stay on the schedule, but 1:14:17.000 --> 1:14:19.800 we just don't know for sure at this time what 1:14:19.960 --> 1:14:20.679 he's really going. 1:14:20.600 --> 1:14:24.080 To do next week. Joined a delicate question. How is 1:14:24.160 --> 1:14:27.280 missus Biden the first Lady? Has there been any reporting 1:14:27.320 --> 1:14:30.360 this afternoon of well, I guess the family in general, 1:14:30.439 --> 1:14:35.200 but I think all of any persuasion of politics would 1:14:35.280 --> 1:14:38.720 like to know how the first Lady is doing. Has 1:14:38.760 --> 1:14:41.320 there been any reporting on that, Jordan Fabian. 1:14:42.960 --> 1:14:46.160 It's been hard to figure out what exactly the reaction is, 1:14:46.200 --> 1:14:48.439 but this has to be a painful moment for the 1:14:48.439 --> 1:14:51.439 Biden family. Joe Biden is someone who spent five decades 1:14:51.760 --> 1:14:54.960 in Washington working toward the goal becoming president. He finally 1:14:54.960 --> 1:14:58.360 achieves echo in twenty twenty. And you know, he obviously 1:14:58.400 --> 1:15:02.040 accomplished a lot help defeat Donald Trump, but his uh, 1:15:02.360 --> 1:15:05.639 his presidency is going to end in one term against 1:15:05.960 --> 1:15:08.840 and amid a lot of recriminations from fellow Democrats and 1:15:08.920 --> 1:15:09.680 friends to get out. 1:15:09.760 --> 1:15:12.880 Jordan Fabian, thank you so much, your White House correspondent. 1:15:13.080 --> 1:15:15.880 You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm 1:15:15.960 --> 1:15:19.080 David Dura with Tom Keane and Joe Matthew plenty ahead 1:15:19.479 --> 1:15:25.360 this he's bloom