AvTalk Episode 187: Korean Air goes off-roading

AVT 187 Transcript
EPISODE 187
[INTRODUCTION]
[0:00:06] IP: Hello and welcome to Episode 187 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here, as always
with –
[0:00:14] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Hello, Ian. How's it going?
[0:00:16] IP: It's going all right, Jason. How are you, sir?
[0:00:18] JR: I'm good. My recording venue is a lot less inspiring this week, unfortunately.
[0:00:23] IP: Oh, well, just strap some wings on the cat and you'll be all set.
[0:00:26] JR: She might not like that, but we won't know for sure until I try.
[0:00:30] IP: With Halloween coming up, I politely request that you at least to give it a good
shot.
[0:00:36] JR: Okay. Will do.
[0:00:38] IP: It was a busy week with some unfortunate news coming in over the weekend,
which is where we begin the show. Unfortunately, there was a rather significant incident with a
Korean Air A330 trying to land in Cebu in the Philippines. The aircraft was landing in poor
weather, thunderstorms and rain at the time, a wet runway in very humid conditions. On its third
approach, the aircraft was unable to stop on the runway and continued well off the runway for
about 300 meters, going through the ILS lighting towers and coming to rest just before exiting
the airport proper. Fortunately, however, no serious injuries were reported. A 162 passengers,
11 crew members and none of them, not one of them sustained serious injuries.
[0:01:32] JR: That's pretty miraculous Good to hear. Aside from the damage to the aircraft,
which is pretty substantial, if you look at any of the images, like the front bottom of the aircraft is
© 2022 AvTalk 1
AVT 187 Transcript
gone. It’s not there anymore. I don't know where it is, but it's not attached to the aircraft, where
the nose gear would be. Typically, in this kind of accident, somebody gets injured during the
evacuation. A lot of accidents like this, maybe nobody is injured during the actual accident, but
somebody sprains an ankle, breaks a leg during the evacuation. But in this case, no injuries,
whatsoever. That's pretty amazing.
[0:02:08] IP: Yeah. It was really good to hear that no one was injured. I think, it looks much
worse for wear, because of what it drove through, I guess, after exiting the usable part of the
runway. The data that we receive from the aircraft, unfortunately doesn't go to, I guess, zero
knots. The aircraft was still moving at a high rate of speed on the runway, when the last ATSB
data came through. At 15:08 UTC, which is 11:08 p.m. local time, the ground speed was 90
knots. That was at a point on the runway. The aircraft landed on runway 2-2. Going almost all
the way down the runway, to where the touchdown area for runway four. If you're landing in the
opposite direction, the aircraft reported its last positional data and speed data there.
90 knots still there, much faster than an aircraft would normally be traveling at that point in its
landing role. Then went about 300 meters off the usable portion of the runway, so beyond any
paved surfaces into the grass. Then you start getting into the ILS lighting towers and things like
that. If you look at the aircraft, and we'll put a link in the show notes to photos post-accident,
you'll see portions of that lighting array embedded in the aircraft and over the top of the aircraft.
A violent impact even beyond the end of the runway into those ILS pieces, and still no one no
one was injured. None of that created a fire situation, which is always one of the driving factors
for people being injured and/or killed is when the aircraft catches fire and that thankfully, didn't
happen here.
[0:04:10] JR: Yeah. Definitely an advertisement here for runway safety areas. Looking at the
satellite imagery on Google Maps is about 1,100, 1,200 feet between the absolute end of
pavement coming down on runway 2-2, until you pretty much run into very dense, looks like a
residential – a neighborhood. Or neighborhood, or something. I can't quite identify what it is
from satellite view, because I can only see rooms, but there's a lot of stuff there. JBX wine shop
for one, and Bassick road basketball court. Things you don't want to drive an airplane into. They
came quite close to that the end of that 1,100 feet.
© 2022 AvTalk 2
AVT 187 Transcript
Not all airports have 1,100 feet to spare at the end of the runway. One thing that really stuck out
to me is looking at some of the images of the aircraft that came to us, at first it looks like it came
to rest next to a lake or something. There's no lake there. It’s just, there are these gigantic
puddles from, I guess, all the rain they had that contaminated the runway. It's looks like it settled
next to a little lake.
[0:05:12] IP: Yeah, I mean, there was – it had been raining for quite some time before the
aircraft even arrived in the area. Then two go arounds. Then on the third attempt, they weren't
able to stop on the runway. Obviously, there's an investigation going on. The Philippines is
leading the investigation. The South Koreans will be partly to the investigation. the French will
be part of the investigation as the state of manufacture, and so the BEA will be involved as well.
How much involvement each of those organizations have is yet to be determined. I'm sure we'll
be very interested to see the report that comes out of this to see what the exact runway
conditions were and what actions were the pilots taking when they landed the plane. Now we
wait for a preliminary report at least.
[0:06:06] JR: Yeah. I believe, that was the airport's only functional runway at the time. I think,
they're building, or in the stages of completing a second parallel runway. Of course, the airport
was closed for quite some time ago. Looking at the data of flights on the ground, it looks like
things started flowing about 38 hours ago and then there's a gap until three days ago, or the last
aircraft to land before that was the incident aircraft, which will no doubt, not move again as far
as flightradar24 data is concerned, because almost certainly, that aircraft has seen its last flight.
[0:06:38] IP: I mean, the area forward of the engines no longer has a bottom.
[0:06:45] JR: It is not there. It has departed the aircraft.
[0:06:48] IP: The bottom skin panel is it may be folded up underneath, I'm not sure. If they don't
piece out the aircraft where it sits, I would be very surprised, to at least get it away from the
runway. Stranger things have happened with airports just leaving aircraft where do they lie.
[0:07:08] JR: That's true.
© 2022 AvTalk 3
AVT 187 Transcript
[0:07:09] IP: After an accident. We'll see what happens here. I mean, there have been a couple
where we’re like, “Oh, maybe they'll repair it, maybe they won't.” The BA 777 in Vegas, the Delta
757 in Ponta Delgada. This one –
[0:07:24] JR: This is not that.
[0:07:26] IP: I would eat a winglet if they decide to repair this aircraft.
[0:07:30] JR: Hopefully, it's a carbon fiber winglet and not aluminum, because – I don't see that
happening. Also, kudos to Korean Air for very quickly putting out a statement and taking
responsibility for this. Far too often, we see airlines, or companies in general just ignoring
issues, or emergencies, or crisis that come up. But Korean Air was all over it very quickly.
[0:07:54] IP: Yeah. They got a statement up fairly quickly. Then came out with a follow up
statement that expanded on that original statement and give a lot more information and detail. I
thought that was good on them to do that and get that up quickly. The most interesting thing to
me, and someone mentioned this when we shared this is the statement itself was shared
primarily via Instagram, which is –
[0:08:20] JR: One way to do it.
[0:08:22] IP: It was an interesting – I guess, they felt that was the easiest, or the quickest way
to get the information out. Maybe the person that updates the website was off for the weekend.
It was overnight. I'm not sure. They got to the person who runs their Instagram first. It was like,
“Here, post this.” Yeah, just an interesting segment here. Yeah, we'll leave that as it is until we
get more information, then we'll – I'm sure we'll talk about it in a future episode. Jason, it's an
exciting week in Long Beach California. You're not there this year.
[0:09:02] JR: I'm not. I'm not there. That’s a good deduction. I am not.
[0:09:09] IP: Tell me about what's going on in Long Beach this week, and what if anything I
should care about?
© 2022 AvTalk 4
AVT 187 Transcript
[0:09:17] JR: I think what you're alluding to here is the APEX EXPO, which is the show I go to
every year in Germany and Hamburg, the Aircraft Interior Expo, but this one's a bit smaller and I
just didn't make it this year. I've been traveling enough recently. Not all that much out, but
something did catch a lot of eyeballs yesterday, which was an Airbus announcement. They've
been – Mary Kirby and John Walton over at Runway Girl Network have been all over the
potential of a 10 abreast A350 economy cabin for years now. This dates back to quite a long
time. There are some airlines today with a 10 abreast A350 economy cabin, but this would be
called NPS. Do you know what NPS stands for, Ian?
[0:10:03] IP: I do. I do. Is this like, should I actually guess? Or is this like a twerking question?
[0:10:08] JR: You already know. It's new production standard. We didn't get anything fancy, like
air space, or neo, or whatever. It’s new production standard. Basically, what that means is,
Airbus is going to shave a couple inches off the sidewall to create additional width in the cabin
of their aircraft that they already called the extra wide body. Apparently, it wasn't extra wide
enough. They need more space in the cabin.
[0:10:33] IP: See. Now here's where they missed the opportunity to go with XXWB. Because
the A350 XWBNP.
[0:10:44] JR: There’s a future in marketing for you.
[0:10:46] IP: Maybe, maybe. I think they should have gone with the XXWB.
[0:10:51] JR: Yeah. Airbus slimmed off a few inches from the sidewall, which will make a 343 10
abreast economy configuration on an A350 less miserable, because it does exist today on a
couple of very low-cost, long-haul airlines, like French B, I think, has it. It's not good. It is very
squishy. They made a little mistake, where they showed a picture of what they said would be
NPS to the media that attended the show, but they showed a weird hybrid of old and new where
they said, “Here's a look at an Iberia A350 configuration.” They showed it with 10 abreast and
everyone said, “Whoa. Iberia's taking 10 abreast economy on an A350. That's terrible. I don't
want anything to do with that.”
© 2022 AvTalk 5
AVT 187 Transcript
It turned out, they slapped that slide together at the last minute and didn't actually represent
what they were really doing. Iberia is not actually rolling out 10 abreast A350 economy seats.
Later on, they sent out the same slide deck to media and I guess, emails a different picture.
That raised some eyeballs very quickly that, “Oh, no. Iberia is going to mainstream 10 abreast
seating on the A350. Indeed, no. It's good news that there will be a couple of extra inches in
their cabin and they will not be installing an extra seat in every row. What turned out to be panic
is turns out to be good news.
[0:12:14] IP: Right. The NPS is by definition, the new production standard. Airbus has figured
out – this isn't an option the airlines will now choose or not choose. This is the new production
standard. You'll have more room in the cabin. Great. It's not a ton of room. It's 4 inches. The
cross section of the cabin goes from 221 inches to 225 inches in the interior width of the cabin.
They found that space at the armrests level, and they found that space at the head, or slightly
above the head level depending on how tall you are. The good news here, as Jason mentioned
is that you'll have more room on new build A350s than you did on older aircraft. You'll have a
little bit more room. For Iberia's customers, who they're going to be flying a 9 abreast still, not 10
abreast. I wonder how freaked out Iberia was when they saw that.
[0:13:13] JR: I'd be pissed if I were Iberia. Maybe I could get an extra aircraft out of them for
free. I don’t know. How much damage has been done?
[0:13:21] IP: I don't know about that. Yeah. No. I think, there was probably an angry email, or
phone call, or something. It'll give more space within the cabin, but it also opens up other
carriers, not necessarily Iberia, but other carriers to make the decision to have a 10 abreast
A350 more palatable. Notice, Jason, before did not say not miserable. He just said, less
miserable.
[0:13:49] JR: Less miserable. Other airlines, it would have been very hesitant, or wouldn't do it
at all under the, I guess, old production standard. Might do it under the new production
standard. I don't know. I look at these and I'm always unconvinced that adding a couple extra
seats onboard an aircraft that's probably not going out full to the discomfort of all passengers
onboard. Is that really necessary? I guess, every airline in the world determined, yes, it is on the
777, but let's not repeat the same fate on the A350.
© 2022 AvTalk 6
AVT 187 Transcript
[0:14:19] IP: Yeah. I both see your point. But having not run the numbers myself, trust the folks
that have run the numbers to come up with the conclusion that yes, it is in our best interest, if
that's the product we want to provide our passengers. I think, that's a big if at this point.
[0:14:40] JR: Yup. You know what else is a big if?
[0:14:42] IP: What's that?
[0:14:43] JR: If some really strange airline that you wouldn't expect to operate A330 freighters
for Amazon. Do you know who it is?
[0:14:54] IP: I do know who it is. I do know who it is.
[0:14:56] JR: It's Hawaiian Airlines. This is probably the most surprising press release I've
gotten in a very long time, or the least expected press release. Hawaiian Air will maintain and fly
10 Airbus A330 passenger to freighter converted aircraft, under the Prime Air brand. That is
surprising.
[0:15:20] IP: I mean, it's surprising and not. From my mind, I agree with you, yes, this was
unexpected. It was the announcement, or the timing of the announcement, that was a surprise.
Thinking about what Amazon has been trying to do, this fits in with their model of investing in
airlines, because not only will Hawaiian fly A330s for Amazon, Amazon will also take a stake in
the airline.
[0:15:50] JR: Interesting.
[0:15:53] IP: They'll fly up to 10 converted P2Fs for Amazon. The key here is that these aircraft,
while they will incrementally increase Amazon's capacity, won't – It's not like they're adding 10
aircraft to the fleet. Because when they started Amazon, what was Amazon Prime Air, which is
now Amazon Air, because Prime Air is their drone delivery service, but they still paint Prime Air
on the airplanes that are flying as Amazon Air, that's not –
© 2022 AvTalk 7
AVT 187 Transcript
[0:16:22] JR: It's somehow all operated by Mesa.
[0:16:25] IP: Exactly. When they first started with these aircraft, they were starting with 767,
mostly converted – I don't think any of them were pair freighters. Converted 767s. Those aircraft
are now, they were old then. They're now end of life. They're reaching that the check becomes
too expensive to bother with age. These A330s, what they're going to do is they're going to fill
the hole that the retiring 767s are going to leave. It's not a huge increase. They're not adding 10
aircraft to the fleet. They're not adding 10 A330-300s to the fleet just to add capacity. It will
incrementally add capacity, because the A330-300 will carry more cargo than the 767s.
[0:17:13] JR: Yeah. There's a couple interesting points here. A, these are not Hawaiian Air
aircraft. Currently, these are 300s. Hawaiian Air currently has 200s. These are coming from
somewhere else. Yes, that happens to be coincidental at the same time that Hawaiian Air will
phase out its A330 fleet in favor of new build 787s coming soon. Eventually, soon.
[0:17:35] IP: Eventually, soon.
[0:17:36] JR: Eventually, soon. Only Boeing knows for sure. Not even them. These will enter
service next year and in 2024. I guess, it makes sense, since instead of having to train your
current A330 pilots over to 787, they can just move over to these freighters.
[0:17:53] IP: I assume.
[0:17:54] JR: At least some of them.
[0:17:55] IP: Yeah, at least some of them. I would assume that a number of Hawaiians most
senior A330 pilots would much rather move over to the 787s and continue passenger flying.
Because cargo flying and passenger flying are very different, as the pilots we've talked with on
the podcast before, both on the passenger side and the cargo side have noted extensively.
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see where this pilot pool comes from. I mean it, it helps that Hawaiian
is very familiar with the A330 already.
© 2022 AvTalk 8
AVT 187 Transcript
[0:18:27] JR: Yes. It's also interesting that it will turn Honolulu into this little Trans Pacific Freight
Gateway, since apparently, Anchorage is bursting at the seams and can't really take anymore.
This is a nice little alternative route between Asia and then the West Coast US.
[0:18:44] IP: Yeah. That part of the puzzle, I think is the most interesting to me, because they'll
– Hawaiian’s going to both do Trans Pacific work, but mostly be flying in and out of the
Cincinnati hub that Amazon has built up. It'll be really interesting that they're going to open up a
mainland pilot base for the first time for these flights. Or mainland continental US. Then, they'll
also be growing their existing operations to support the cargo operation. They're basically
starting a whole another airline.
[0:19:37] JR: It's interesting. We'll keep our eyes on this.
[0:19:39] IP: I mean, who else is going to do this? I mean, that's I guess, the next question.
Who’s going to fly for Amazon next? Because you've got sun country. They flew 737s. Then they
said, “Oh, we can fly with boxes in them, too. That'll be fine.” You've got Atlas and ATSG. You've
got Hawaiian now. I mean, I guess, the question becomes who's next?
[0:20:07] JR: I don’t know. We’ll stay tuned.
[0:20:08] IP: I don’t know. There you go. Speaking of Airbus aircraft, we have two, I don't want
to say big orders. One's fairly healthy and one's just fascinating.
[0:20:18] JR: Wait. Only one of them is Airbus, though. You said, speaking of Airbus, only the
first one is an Airbus order. That would be a top-up order from Air Canada for 15 more A220s,
bringing their – Oh, no. We skipped right over it. You're right. There are two Airbus orders. You
put it in red. Okay, I skipped right over that one. We're going out of order here. How dare I.
Airbus will be manufacturing 15 more A220-300s for Air Canada, produced specifically in
Montreal. They made short to say, these are going to be Canadian built aircraft. We don't want
that stuff over from Mobile, or whatever. These are proudly Canadian aircraft. That's nice. They'll
probably be able to get these to phase out the rest of their very, very, very, very old A320, A319
fleet, so that's nice. What else happened in Airbus land?
© 2022 AvTalk 9
AVT 187 Transcript
[0:21:12] IP: Well, the one that you skipped over that I was most excited about was the –
[0:21:16] JR: That the airline itself spoiled days ago.
[0:21:20] IP: Yeah. That was the best part about it. You ruined my whole bit, man.
[0:21:25] JR: Well, I skipped over it entirely. Now everything’s – it’s all lost.
[0:21:27] IP: All right. There you go. Air Côte d'Ivoire ordered two A330neos, but they ordered
them first on Twitter.
[0:21:37] JR: I did not know you could do that. Yet, I know you could do a little marketplace on
Twitter, like in your profile, but I didn't know you could buy it.
[0:21:45] IP: Apparently, you can buy A330s via Twitter now. The announcement comes into
inboxes for journalists, and they say, “Don't tell anybody about this yet. Go ahead and write your
story. Then we're going to announce it at this time. Then you can release the story.” Then they
scooped their own embargoed announcement by just posting it on Twitter. It was great.
[0:22:05] JR: Yeah, it was great. All announcements should be like that.
[0:22:08] IP: Two A330neos. I didn't see a delivery date. Did you?
[0:22:15] JR: Skimming, skimming, skimming. Nope.
[0:22:18] IP: Okay. When we figure out the delivery date, then we'll have to go flying. Looking
forward to seeing them. Then we have not a new Boeing order, but more paperwork was signed
by Alaska Air to top up, or really bulk up their existing MAX order.
[0:22:39] JR: Yeah. They have exercised options for an additional 52 73 MAX aircraft. 42 of
them are the Dash 10 variant. 10 of them are of the Dash 9 variant. That's a lot of aircraft.
© 2022 AvTalk 10
AVT 187 Transcript
[0:22:52] IP: That is a lot of aircraft and it's a lot of Dash 10s. But they're going to have to
continued waiting for the Dash 10 to be certified. This week, the FAA basically said and Boeing
basically agreed, that it's not going to happen by the end of the year. We're really, really leaning
on Congress to say something here. They haven't said anything since they said something. That
was what? Two and a half weeks ago. At this point, late October –
[0:23:24] JR: We’re still waiting.
[0:23:25] IP: Unless something happens, it's going to be interesting to see what happens in the
next Congress, and whether or not –
[0:23:32] JR: Whatever that looks like.
[0:23:34] IP: Yeah. I mean, whether or not anybody does anything on that front. Or if Boeing
just says, “Okay, fine. We'll put the cool learning system in.” Which I just don't see happening.
But we wait.
[0:23:45] JR: Had a little more detail on the Alaska order. These aircraft will come between
2024 and 2027. Alaska also secured the rights for 105 more aircraft through 2030, which they
are saying, it's their largest Boeing aircraft order in its 90-year history. But most of this more
than half are actually, the bulk of it a 105 are options. They're not firms, so they may, or may not
ever actually happen. It says, Alaska says that this puts them on the road to once again become
an all-Boeing airline, for real this time.
[0:24:19] IP: For real this time.
[0:24:20] JR: Not like the fake all-Boeing airline they've been for the last couple decades.
[0:24:24] IP: For real this time.
[0:24:25] JR: For real. They mean it. They do mean it. By the end of next year, no more Dash
8s, no more Airbus aircraft. All gone. They'll be purely Boeing 737 airline. That's it. For real.
© 2022 AvTalk 11
AVT 187 Transcript
[0:24:38] IP: Maybe. Let's move over to Embraer, who took a nice order from TUI. They have
selected the E195-E2. They are going to take delivery of three of those leasing through AerCap.
[0:24:56] JR: TUI Belgium to be particular. Those will come in the first half of next year, actually.
So quite soon. The E2 is an aircraft you just don't hear much about, so good for them.
[0:25:08] IP: It's a nice aircraft, so I would love to hear more about it.
[0:25:10] JR: I would love to fly one one day. I'm waiting for Porter to get there as in service.
Any day now.
[0:25:16] IP: Any day now. Yes, that will be good. Let's go to Florida.
[0:25:23] JR: Do we have to?
[0:25:24] IP: Well, we have to, because somebody from Cuba went to Florida and this becomes
a good story. A guy was flying an Antonov An-2 on a crop-dusting flight. He was carrying out a
“agricultural fumigation tasks.” Then after completing the second flight of the day, the pilot just
decided he’d had enough and flew from Cuba to Florida, landing in the Everglades Dade-Collier
Airport.
[0:26:03] JR: There's so much to unpack in that. Yeah. For one thing, an An-2, if you're not
familiar, it's a Soviet era aircraft. A bi-wing aircraft, so it is very old timey looking. Apparently,
these are – they’re tanks. You can't destroy them. He flew all the way to, if you're not familiar
with the Dade-Collier training and transition airport, it is literally smack dab in the middle of
nowhere Everglades, connected to nothing. Basically, I think there's one road to US 41 that was
initially way back in the crazy days of the 50s supposed to be a mega-trends, a mega
supersonic aircraft airport. Obviously, never came to be, but it is not near the coast. It is quite a
distance from any body of water. It is quite surprising that this pilot was able to go the 30 –
minimum 30 miles from the water, all the way to this airport undetected. There's going to be a
whole lot of questions for a whole lot of people about how this was able to happen.
© 2022 AvTalk 12
AVT 187 Transcript
[0:27:11] IP: I'm not sure if he made it entirely undetected, because I did see the report that
customs, or border patrol did intercept him. He was able to land and was detained upon arrival.
The aircraft still there to my knowledge. I'm not sure if Cuba is going to want it back.
[0:27:30] JR: I don't know if they're allowed to get it back. I don't know how that works.
[0:27:35] IP: Valid US airworthiness, like I would with the FAA, give them a special permit. To
me like, “Here, take your plane back.”
[0:27:42] JR: I don't know. It's probably going to become an Instagram background piece for
anyone who manages to somehow get to this airport. There is video of the pilot flying this
airplane at exceptionally low altitudes to evade radar detection. Apparently, mission
accomplished.
[0:27:59] IP: Yeah. Somebody was out fishing out in the Atlantic and there goes a plane. That's
15, 20 feet off the ground. Yeah, so it was not something you see every day.
[0:28:11] JR: No, no. That's a crop dusting, a Cuban An-2 in the Everglades is strange
sentence to have to say.
[0:28:20] IP: It did not have that one in the show notes this week ahead of time.
[0:28:25] JR: No. I hope the migrant as they say, who landed here in the Everglades finds
safety, or whatever it is they were fleeing from in Cuba. Good on them. Wow.
[0:28:38] IP: Yeah. This is an interesting prediction – I guess, prediction’s the wrong word.
Guesstimate, analysis. Euro Control puts out a traffic study every so often. Their analysis this
time around deals with returning to Russian air space, the ability of European air traffic to return
to Russian air space. They plan through 2028 at this point. Their plan through 2028 doesn't
have any return to Russian air space in that timeframe. Rather interesting analysis from Euro
Control. We'll put a link in the show notes to it. Just something that I wanted to flag, given that
it's only 2022 and Euro Control is already planning for the lack of availability of Russian air
© 2022 AvTalk 13
AVT 187 Transcript
space whatsoever through 2028. No optimism there. I don't think the analysis is misplaced, or
misguided at all. I just wanted to note the lack of optimism.
[0:29:45] JR: Yeah. Doesn't seem like things are going to be changing anytime soon. Even if
somehow Russia just gave up and left Ukraine today, things are not going back to normal
tomorrow, that things have consequences and things take a long time to stabilize. That's not to
say that airlines transiting Russia was exactly a foregone conclusion in the before times, there
were plenty of airlines that never got Russian overflight permits. Notably, Norwegian long-haul
when that was still a thing. They never were able to fly over Russian air space and they weren't
able to fly to a lot of Asian destinations that they wanted to. Even before the invasion of Ukraine,
Russian overflight was a complicated, tricky thing. I can't imagine it's going to be at least
minimally, that level of still complicated anytime soon. If Euro Control doesn't think so, I can't
see anyone else refuting that reasonably.
[0:30:42] IP: Yeah, yeah. Speaking of optimistic however, this was an interesting conversation
that happened this week at the routes conference that was taking place where airlines and
airports get together and talk about where they might fly in the future. Speaking at the
conference, Frontier Airlines CEO, Barry Biffle, said that Frontier is expecting to take delivery of
the A321XLR in 2026, and is then considering transatlantic flight “definitely in consideration.”
[0:31:25] JR: Okay. Good for them. I won't be participating in that social experiment anytime
soon. Good for anyone who wants rock bottom, ancillary, out the wazoo airfares to narrowbody
aircraft to Europe. I mean, others have tried and not succeeded. Maybe Frontier has a secret
formula that no one else has had before.
[0:31:50] IP: They do have animals on their tail.
[0:31:52] JR: That's true. Their airplanes are cute. That's a thing.
[0:31:55] IP: I don’t know that.
[0:31:56] JR: I don’t know if that works economically. Remember, this is something, again,
bringing up Norwegian that Norwegian tried with the MAX before everything went bad for them.
© 2022 AvTalk 14
AVT 187 Transcript
It didn't work. They stopped doing all that pretty damn quickly, actually. If Frontier – where would
they even operate these flights from? They didn’t even really served any northeast gateway.
[0:32:15] IP: Yeah. I mean, that's the second question. Biffle mentioned Philadelphia.
[0:32:21] JR: Do they even serve Philly? I mean, I know they have flights out of Trenton, which
is Philly-ish.
[0:32:26] IP: Maybe. Maybe that's what he's talking about.
[0:32:29] JR: Trenton t London is a route that I want.
[0:32:33] IP: I mean, just for fun. Frontier mentions Philadelphia. The other thing that he
mentioned was also looking at going deeper into South America. Using Miami as a gateway
from –
[0:32:48] JR: That makes much more sense.
[0:32:51] IP: Yeah. Using Miami as a gateway deeper into South America. Then, also being
able to fly from the West Coast to the Caribbean on some of those – into those longer.
[0:33:02] JR: A hard pass for me on that one. I mean, I understand Miami to South America.
JetBlue does plenty of that. I think they have some pushing eight-hour flights on their 321neo
LR. That does not surprise me at all.
[0:33:16] IP: Yeah, but the West Coast to the Caribbean is a little –
[0:33:19] JR: Is there even a market for that? The Caribbean of the West Coast is Hawaii and
Mexico. Is there really a demand for LA to Puerto Rico? I guess.
[0:33:33] IP: I mean, Puerto Rico, probably.
[0:33:33] JR: Probably. But the rest of the Caribbean, I don’t know about that.
© 2022 AvTalk 15
AVT 187 Transcript
[0:33:36] IP: Yeah. I guess, that's the question. An interesting thing to consider, he also said
that they're looking at adding a, I don't want to call it a premium cabin, but a not as
uncomfortable version of their current cabin to the aircraft.
[0:33:55] JR:  You could call it the big front seat.
[0:33:59] IP: Interesting.
[0:34:00] JR: In fact, I know potentially a couple 100 Airbus family aircrafts with big front seats
that they won't need any more, that you could just take.
[0:34:12] IP: Oh, that whole thing is going to be a mess when it comes to actually reconfiguring
those aircraft. I don't want to talk about that until they get DOJ approval. If they get DOJ
approved, then we can talk about what a mess that's going to be.
[0:34:23] JR: Okay. We'll talk about that next year.
[0:34:25] IP: The JetBlue-Spirit thing. Yeah, we'll see if they go from there. Nonetheless,
interesting, I think transatlantic on a Frontier aircraft as it is configured now.
[0:34:35] JR: No. Not for me. Some people, yes. Me, no.
[0:34:40] IP: Sure. I mean, I don't want to begrudge anyone that's willing to do that. I certainly
want to hear about it, but I do not wish to participate in that.
[0:34:48] JR: Absolutely.
[0:34:49] IP: Having reached the ripe old age of I slept funny and now I have to go to physical
therapy. I do not want to be in a Frontier seat for that long across the ocean.
[0:35:00] JR: They’re pre-reclined, Ian.
© 2022 AvTalk 16
AVT 187 Transcript
[0:35:02] IP: Sure, sure.
[0:35:06] JR: That's a thing.
[0:35:07] IP: The marketing phrase. Sure. But no, thank you. I'm good. Interesting now to see
what they're going to do with the aircraft, because they've ordered them, they've got to figure out
something to do with them. We only have to wait four years, or possibly, a little longer, because
airlines are currently warning about the delays that they're facing. JetBlue this week said, “This
is how many aircraft we expected to take. We're going to take fewer aircraft than we initially
expected, because of all the supply chain and production problems that Airbus is having.” The
same applies to Boeing and the MAX as well.
Then there was one other thing I wanted to mention before we left this week. Oh, Boeing
earnings came out today. We'll put a link in the show notes to the actual earnings write-ups,
because they do much more justice than we could do, but the top line that I wanted to pull out
was the fact that CEO David Calhoun has said today that he has no indication from China that
they're going to be willing to restart deliveries of the 737 MAX anytime soon, or at any date. He
has no idea when that's going to happen. Not a not a positive note.
[0:36:25] JR: No. That comes on the same day, where images have appeared of a C919 in full
China Eastern livery, I believe, with the decals.
[0:36:33] IP: Yeah, the first one.
[0:36:34] JR: World's first C919. Things are not too discreet at this point. Things are pretty
intentional.
[0:36:41] IP: Yeah. Again, we've talked about this in past episodes about how the waiting on the
919 to enter service, or at least get certified before the 737 comes back into China is a distinct
possibility. There have been aircraft, 737 MAX aircraft in China moving around over the past
couple of weeks. Aircraft are getting taken out of storage and being flown around China for test
flights and things like that. But there's been no announcement about any time when they'll return
© 2022 AvTalk 17
AVT 187 Transcript
to service, or when Chinese airlines will begin to accept delivery of new build 737 MAXs. For
now, we wait.
[0:37:24] JR: All right.
[0:37:25] IP: With that, we have Episode 187 in the books.
[0:37:29] JR: That's a good one.
[0:37:30] IP: I thought so. I'm proud of us, Jason. We made it through.
[0:37:33] JR: Okay. Hit the stop button before we say anything we can’t take back.
[0:37:36] IP: I’m hitting the stop. There you go. I am Ian Petchenik, here, as always with –
[0:37:41] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Thanks for listening.
[END]
© 2022 AvTalk 18