Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Is There An Optimal Roster Construction?

00:00:01
Speaker 1: So rich. I was on vacation last week. My family went to Hilton Head. Is my wife and the kids really good time. And for any of you who've been to Hilton Head or who go every year, I know there's a lot of you that probably do. There's a guy who does like children's songs in this one area, this little cove, and we went one night to kind of hang out and like sing some songs, you know, have a good time. Family time is very very you know, quintessential kind of family atmosphere. And he would have these kids go up on stage okay, and they would sing right well. During the week, I swear everyone we met was from Ohio. Like someone was from Ohio, like there was some Cincinnati connection or Columbus or even Cleveland, but everyone seemed to be from Ohio. And my wife and I are sitting there, you know, my kids are down sort of closer to the singer and dancing around and having a good time, and this one kid goes up and when he goes up, the the person's like, hey, where are you from? You know, what are you going to sing? And the kid goes, oh, I'm from Seattle. And I looked at my wife and I said, Wow, it's a long way. Not only is that a far far away to get here, but they're not from Ohio like everyone was from Ohio. And then he goes, what are you going to sing? And the kids starts singing. He sings the Cincinnati Bengals touchdown song. I'm JJ And last year I tried my hardest to become a best ball bro. I drafted over five hundred teams, I talked to some of the most successful best ball players in existence, and I admittedly had mixed results. So this year, I'm going to chase that title once again. My plan is a max Enter Draftings millionaire maker, and I'm going to document all of it while talking to the brightest best ball minds on the planet. Last year, I didn't quite get there, But this year this is going to be the year where I officially become a best ball bro. This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. There's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with best Ball on DraftKings, where you draft once and ride your roster all season long. And right now, Draftings giving all customers I can't miss offer Draft one, get one and to line up in the fifteen million dollars Best Ball contest for just twenty dollars, and you'll score another best Ball ticket to play free for a share of that fifteen million, giving you a second shot to win big. It's easy. Just draft your dream team once, no weekly management required, and let your top scorers automatically start each week across the whole season. Every breakout star, every clutch play, every touchdown will count towards your request for a share of fifteen million dollars. I'm drafting over there all the time. It's an absolute blast. So download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app now to draft a twenty dollars best ball lineup to play for a share of fifteen million dollars, and get a second ticket to play free for a share of that fifteen million. That's two chances to win big without ever setting your lineup again. Draft one, get one only on draftings. The Crown is Yours. Gambling problem called one hundred gambler In New York, call eight seven seven eight hope end y, or text hope n Y to four six seven three six nine. In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling. Call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org eighteen plus and most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Voidware prohibited. One per customer enter the Best Ball fifteen million dollars Headliner Contest by nine four to twenty five to get one bonus entry twenty dollars. Entry for required reward expires in thirty days. See terms at draftings dot com. Slash NFL dash Best dash Ball sponsored by dk Now back to the show, Welcome into another episode of becoming a Best Ball bro. I'm JJ zach Areson, joined as always by Rich Ryan Rich. What's going on, Buddy? Doing great? Jj?

00:03:56
Speaker 2: It's the heart of the World Series of Poker soap and watch a ton of that supporting my guys over at poker go. Ten million dollars up for grabs in the desert, so it'll be a fun next week and a half over there enjoying all the poker stuff and now digging back into the Best Ball Streets training camp preseason right around the corner.

00:04:16
Speaker 1: Man, Yeah, I mean it's July right, I just went on my family vacation. Back from the vacation, I am drafting and ready to do this today we are going to talk about kind of a like it's it's kind of like a mid mid summer update with Best Ball drafts and such, because you know, we are into July now. I am now fifty five, maybe a little bit over fifty five because I think I drafted a couple more since I pulled these numbers. But I'm fifty five millionaire contests in so I have less than one hundred to go, which is kind of daunting sounding. But it's July eighth at the time of this recording. I think I'm pacing okay enough, right, I mean, if I need to really like beef it up, I'm trying to do two or three a day at this point. So I actually haven't drafted any today, but I did pull my exposure numbers, and we're gonna walk through it, and I'm gonna explain why I've drafted as much as I've I've drafted some of these guys, uh the at least like given my experience last year in max entering this stuff and playing a high volume of Best Ball drafts last year, you know, I realize this year that I didn't want to like be overly cautious with my exposure stuff until maybe mid July. Like I just wanted to draft who I thought was the best players in those in those rounds, and I do think, like we'll go over the percentages. It's actually kind of even down. It's not like that crazy. I don't have like insane, you know, forty five fifty to fifty five percent exposed players. But there are some guys who I think I'm a little bit too much, you know, I have too much exposure of and too little of that. We'll talk through. So we'll go position by position today and you know, talk through it. I would love to hear Rich's reaction to some of this stuff too, as sort of the ears as a listener, if you will, because I've been talking about players on the show, and we'll see how much that's matched to my actual drafting.

00:06:07
Speaker 2: There'll be some matching here right off the bat at quarterback position, because your top four are Drake May, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, and Aaron Rodgers. I'm specifically interested to hear about Yin's new quarterback at the end there, Aaron Rodgers, and whether or not your exposure is more pre signing or post signing, and what your thoughts are on the guy moving forward.

00:06:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I got more with Aaron Rodgers pre signing. But here's the thing. I do think that part of the reason why I have thirteen percent Rogers. So the ranges here are thirteen percent to eighteen percent, and a lot of quarterbacks are tied at eleven percent. So as usual, quarterback is not that high from an exposure perspective. I think last year my highest roster quarterback was like fifteen percent. But Drake May, Bryce Young they're both at eighteen percent, Jordan Love fifteen percent, Aaron Rodgers thirteen percent. I got Rogers before the signing happened, assuming that he was going to go to Pittsburgh. But I still have drafted him after the fact because I don't think that from a range of outcomes perspective, you know, his his outcome is necessarily so so significantly worse or different than some of the pocket passers that are sort of in the tier above him. I think that we often look at Arthur Smith and incorrectly peg him as a run heavy, conservative kind of offensive coordinator. But there was a season in there where he had Matt Ryan and they were like seventh in the league and pass rate that year like they like I do think. And there's been some quotes from Arthur Smith that allude to the fact that, oh, I've got Aaron Rodgers, now I don't have to be as run heavy as I've been in the past. You know, like, of course he's gonna be run heavy when he's got Kenny Pickett. Of course he's gonna be run heavy, you know, when he has Justin Fields or even Russell Wilson to a degree where he can chuck it deep and have a high a dot and sort of run that you know, play action offense. So I am sort of like trying to lean into the narrative and be contrarian from the standpoint that Abe, the Steelers are not as run heavy as people are just assuming they will be, and Aaron Rodgers maybe isn't as dusty. I mean, I've been on record saying that I don't think that he is necessarily as bad as people think. And that's not just the yins are in me. That's the fact that he goes to New York Terras's Achilles, like the third whatever, what play was that you you probably number four?

00:08:21
Speaker 2: I was in the building in section two six, right in front of me. He sat down and I was in a malays for about the next couple hours.

00:08:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then and then so he's gone for that whole season, comes back next year. Last year it was, and you know, he struggled a little bit to start the year, but he came on a little bit more in a week er schedule during the back half of the season. He had DeVante Adams and such. But I think you can at least tell the story that, hey, this is an older veteran quarterback coming off of torn Achilles, and maybe he wasn't one hundred percent, you know, versus especially what he was saying to the media and such, right, And so I think there's at least a story here that we can tell ourselves that he's not as horrendous as a fantasy asset as people think. And then on top of that, I've leaned in a lot more to the three quarterback build, and that's what a lot of these numbers and such show. Like Bryce Young, in my opinion, he's in that next tier sort of that like like second to last tier, if you will, quarterbacks or so, but like Bryce Young to me should be in a tier up based on when he came back from injury. Last year, he averaged over five points per game with his legs, which is a number that we only see from like the most mobile quarterbacks, and that was over ten games. And so they add Ted McMillan. What if Bryce Young is able to be a really good fantasy asset, like a fringe QB one. I think that's in his range of outcomes here. Drake May, I think has just been undervalued all off season, so it's just been pretty easy to get him. And then Jordan Love, you know, part of the pocket passer cluster that's in there. He's part of it, I should say. But there's that pocket passer cluster of like and CJ. Stroud and all these other dudes. The reason I gravitate towards Jordan Love is because there are so many outs with Love to get stacks and one of those guys. Actually a couple of those guys will be talking about in a bit, But there are outs you can get a naked Jaden Reed or Matthew Golden and say, hey, maybe I'll get Jordan Love. Maybe I won't because I think both of those guys are fairly priced, so I'll draft them and then oh, okay, Jordan Love's available, I'll draft Jordan Love, or you just go naked Love and you're able to still. Sometimes you can just get Love and tuck our craft at like a turn, so you get a stack there, or you just wait a little bit and you get Romeo Dubbs. So there's there's reason I think to get Jordan Love because he just allows a more flexible starting lineup. I think he has just as good of a range of outcomes as you know CJ. Stroud or some of these other pocket passer types, especially because the Packers are a team that are big regression candidates to throw the ball a lot more this year.

00:10:55
Speaker 2: Love the only player on this list that the market has cooled on since we started, down half around. Both May and Bryce Young are up half a round since we started, and of course Anon Rodgers is up heap. He's up thirty one picks since we started because he did officially sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers. There is a quarterback who you are underweight on right now that you want to get a little bit more of. He was an MVP candidate last year.

00:11:18
Speaker 1: Who is It's Lamar Jackson. And look I don't say that as in like I'm fading Lamar. I have four percent Lamar right now. Out of these drafts, I just haven't really been getting him where he because for whatever reason, I don't know if other people are experiencing this, maybe this is a small sample sized thing. I've noticed that Josh Allen slides in drafts more than Lamar does, even though Josh Allen will have the higher ADP, Like it's a really weird phenomenon, where Like Lamar often will just like be concrete cemented right in that middle of the third round, Whereas I've gotten Josh Allen in the early fourth round frequently, like it's not a shock when that happens. And so I've just kind of gotten the falling value and that's just been Josh Allen more frequently. And that's why Lamar Jackson's kind of at a lower, you know, exposure rate. But I do want to get that up at least a little bit. I don't think I'm going to be over the eight percent mark with like a Lamar whenever I can get Jalen Hurts you know later and get a better value in my opinion on a guy like Hurtz or you know, Josh Allen's falling but I do want to be a little bit I want to be in like that maybe six percent range.

00:12:24
Speaker 2: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are the cover of lethal weapon right now, back to back in ADP twenty nine point three and thirty respectively. But Allen is falling sharply down seven picks since we started doing this, so there definitely seems to be a little bit more course correction on Allen as opposed to Lamar. Let's go to running back some more takes here, stronger takes deviations from the average, and we'll start with a pair of post hype rookies marsh On Lloyd and Jalen Wright. Then we got steady Eddie and a great offense, Justice Hill, bay Shall, Tuton and Travion Henderson a pair of rookies there. Lloyd and Wright are above the quarter mark twenty nine percent. Justice Hill's right there at twenty five percent, and then Tooton and Henderson both come in at twenty two percent.

00:13:13
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I'll talk about the Jags backfield all together right now, because Travis Etn I do want to get a little bit more of Like I've had Etn ranked ahead of Teuton. It's just been something that I think early on I was a little bit too heavy with Tutin and I didn't draft enough ETN. And now you know, I wish that mix was a little bit closer than it is because Etn's at like eight percent, and so yeah, like I like the ambiguous backfield. I like the Jags to improve as an offense this year under Liam Cohen. There's a lot to like about Jacksonville. That's why their players are littered throughout the late round draft guide right now. So that's that's the dynamic between Travis ETN and Basehall Tuton. When it comes to Tank Bigsby, I think that that's the of the three, Like I've gotten Bigsby and Jag stacks at times, just because he falls a lot further than those two do. And if there is a falling value out of the backfield, it's usually Tank Bigsby. But I don't think Bigsby is gonna be the one that emerges from that backfield. I've seen the comps of, Like, is Tank Bigsby the actual Bucky Irving because Bucky Irving didn't necessarily have the most the best receiving profile, et cetera, et cetera, and he's more of that like elusive, you know, between the tackles or grinder. I don't see that with Tank Bigsby. He has had a horrific yards per out run and efficiency as a receiver. He's only gotten i think, a career like twelve tard. I mean, he doesn't have that much work through the air throughout his two year career so far. I liked Bigsby as a prospect just fine, but I just don't think they're gonna use him enough as a receiver for me to really justify, you know, being overweight on Bigsby. So that really shrinks that ambiguous backfield down to Toutin and Etn and I'm gonna throw darts at both of them, you know, Trayvon Henderson, It's just a situation. He's an elite prospect. It's a full PPR format. I'm not into Ramandre Stevenson for a lot of reasons. Again, you can check out the draft guide for some of those reasons. Justice Hill is a combination of zero RB building or Hero RB building. Right, you're just kind of getting some production late. Because if the Ravens do follow those negative game scripts, we'll probably see a decent amount of Justice Hill as we did last year, but also Jordan Love. I just mentioned I have fifteen percent Jordan Love and that's who they face in Week seventeen. So I get a bringback late of Justice Hill. It's an easy one to do. But the two guys that I have the most exposure to right now, again, I'm kind of glad that I don't have high exposure to like earlier round picks, because that means that there's just a lot of eggs in those baskets. I mean Treyvon Henderson's, you know round six ish guy that's a little bit scary, I guess. But the two guys that are that are highest for Jalen Right, Marshawn Lloyd. Marshawn Lloyd, you know, Josh Jacobs is coming off a high volume season. You know, people forget that Marshaw Lloyd exists because of what happened to him last year. He has big play upside. Though he's athletic, he could be a bell cow. Hypothetically in a situation where Josh Jacobs were to go down, I think there's opportunity for him to maybe even just get some work with Josh Jacobs in the lineup to keep Jacobs fresh. It's not that I'm saying that, you know, Jacobs is someone that you got to avoid it all. It's not that this is me just playing the range of outcomes here. And Jalen Wright, I mean I talk about him. He was an update in the draft guy this past week as a late round dart throw devon A Chan had a fifty eight point five percent running back rush here per game rate last year, which isn't like that insane. Like we know that a Chan's value comes in the form of receiving and that leaves a lot of work for another running back to be like a one B in that offense. And I think right now, Jalen Wright is the only guy you had Alexander Madison, you have Alli Gordon, you have these other pieces, but he's the guy that was the that's been in the system and that they drafted and that works in this system, right Like he's a player who can do what this Mike McDaniel system wants this run his running backs to do. And so Jalen Wright to me in a best ball environment where he could maybe have a random spiked week that wouldn't be predictable, but then also has the upside of if Devon a Chan, who I've also drafted a good bit of. But if a Chan does get hurt, then Jalen Wright might not be a bell cow, but he would be the one A and then offense.

00:17:10
Speaker 2: I think Jalen Wright creeping up up eighteen picks since we started doing this. That's a round and a half, so there's a steady drum beat in support of Right. You can still get him even with that surplus at the end of the fourteenth round, So still yeah, value to be had in Jalen Right. We moved to receiver. Romeo Dubbs leads the way twenty seven percent exposure to other guys in the twenties, Devon Veley and Keenan Allen, who's ADP will rise as you predict here after signing, and then a couple in the high teens DARNEMONI at eighteen percent and many tied at sixteen percent.

00:17:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, I got a lot of guys at like the sixteen percent range that I didn't shout out here. Devon Vailey is probably my scariest because I don't even think that he's necessarily that good, and this seems.

00:17:54
Speaker 2: Like a very strong player. Take Devon Veley to have this, it feels like you're planning a flag.

00:18:00
Speaker 1: It's strange because I could. I didn't like him at all as a prospect because he was like twenty seven years old, twenty six years old. But I think, like when you look at the Broncos, there's a very real chance that they spread the ball around a good bit in that offense. Like I like Marvin Mims, especially in season longs. I think Mims has sort of that that plug and place ceiling that we could see in a in a managed league, and I like him in Best Ball. I like the Broncos in general. Like I've drafted a good bit of Bo Nicks. He was one of the eleven percent quarterbacks that I have. You know, I've drafted some Evan Ingram, you know RJ. Harvey. I'm still going after. I have a ton of JK. Dobbins. I think Dobbins has been someone who's been undervalued since he signed there. But there's just other players like Pat Bryant. We're all kind of assuming would play the slot, and I've drafted him, don't get me wrong. Like I've I've written newsletters about Pat Bryant being someone that we should be drafting. But with that being said, I don't want to be so firm in a take of a player that I don't think was necessarily like an elite player. I know that he's been comp to Michael Thomas by Sean Hayton, and that's really exciting. But at the same time, I want to be realistic and say, Okay, Devon Veley playing the slot had good rook a solid rookie season. Troy Franklin didn't have a good rookie season. You have Marvin Mims and Courtland Sutton. What if Devon Vleay is just the starting slot for Denver this year and in a full PPR environment, there could be opportunity for Devon Veile to see a twenty percent target share in a game here and there, twenty five percent share here and there. If he does lock in that role and then all of a sudden he catches five passes for fifty yards and maybe finds the end zone in the game and he's very usable, right, and you're getting him in the last round. And not only that, I'd be curious. I haven't looked it up or like checked or anything, because there is data that they're publishing over on DraftKings right now, where you can look at draft results for this contest, but I haven't seen how frequently Lee because Valle will go undrafted in some drafts, in a large number of these drafts, And so that's that's also leverage for me because if Vylay does well, then obviously that's fewer teams and fewer players in the contest overall that would would be able to benefit from it.

00:20:06
Speaker 2: No player in the entire National Football League that plays the wide receiver position has moved up more since we started doing this show for season two than Pat Bryant up twenty eight point six really spots. So you are fading the steam and going ultra leverage here by fivoting to Vle.

00:20:25
Speaker 1: Well's what's interesting. Like I said, I'm still getting Bryant, like I think I still have like over I'm over eight percent for sure with Pat Bryant right now. It's more so like I'm I'm buying into the Broncos offense. And this because again, you can get a guy like Bo Nicks naked in your draft because there are so many guys you don't need Courtland Sutton to make it work, right, And so that's part of the reason. And also you get bringbacks, like if you get some Kansas City players I drafted some Isaiah Pacheco, you know, then I can get a Velay late and just have a mini game stack going for that week seventeen. So that's sort of why Vley's here now that I'm like looking at it and being like, wow, twenty two percent, Like that's kind of scary, but it's less scary when it's a twenty round draft, when you know, I do think that there's at least this chance that he gets some production this year. You know, I probably want to be around, you know, maybe sixteen percent at the end of the day if his price does hold. He's been getting some steam out of Denver. Like I'm surprised that there hasn't been that much movement with him throughout the offseason just because you know, I get it, like I'm getting Pat Bryant, like I said, but I do think that Veile should be getting a little bit more love the Keenan Allen thing. I'm at twenty percent Keenan Allen right now. Keenan Allen's not on a team right now, but my, my, my, speaking to other best ball bros. And just kind of reading the market. Sounds like when he signs, based on what we've seen historically, when he signs with a team, his ADP is gonna rise. And so this is me saying, I'm gonna get Keenan Allen now and hope that he goes somewhere really great. And if he goes somewhere really great, I mean, why couldn't he get into the eleventh or twelfth round of these drafts? Like, I think that's that's pretty reasonable if he finds the right spot. But even if he doesn't, his ADP is probably gonna it's not gonna drop, I don't think right like, it would probably stay relatively stagnant. So that's why Keenan Allen is at twenty percent. And then Darnell Mooney just a really easy target share projection for him in my opinion. A lot of the later round trends at wide receiver kind of favor him that I talk about in the draft guide. He's some of the I'm gonna be targeting this year in every format. And also, you know, you get a pretty attractive Week seventeen game in my opinion, because you get the Falcons and Rams and if you get Pooka, if you get DeVante Adams, which I'm drafting both of them, then it's easy to bring it back with Darnell Mooney.

00:22:48
Speaker 2: On Keenan Allen, Yeah, there's no scenario in which he gets signed where I don't think his ADP gets bumped, right, because if a team signs him out of desperation, that means that they have a wide receiver room that is in need of in presidence who is going to command targets. And on the other side of the spectrum, if it's a good offense that perhaps suffers an injury during training camp or preseason, then there's going to be unassigned targets that could then go to this player who's all of a sudden in a good offense. So yeah, I don't it's it's hard to see a scenario with which Keenan Allen gets signed. I mean there's a world where he doesn't get signed. You know, these things happen, but sure, if he gets signed, I don't see a world where his ADP doesn't go up.

00:23:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, as long as he's not going out there and saying like, hey, I'm thinking about retiring, which I haven't seen any Yeah, any sort of like reports. Then I'm fine because I think a team is gonna want Keenan out like he wasn't like horrific last year as horrific, as as as like the narrative kind of says like I'm looking right now at his per route run stuff. You know, his yards paraut run did drop to like one point three to six, which is not great, but when you look at that within the context of the team, is better than romadunzs. For instance, last year, he was still seeing a target on twenty two percent of his routes run last season. You know, his AI DOT was which is pretty in line with what he's seen historically. Like, I don't think that he's necessarily completely toast, and he's the kind of wide receiver like a and Kwon Bolden type wide receiver that could hypothetically go pretty long into his career as long as he is healthy, you know, because he's never been a separation guy ever, that's not his game, and so I do think that he could find a slot roll somewhere and just be a really reliable target there.

00:24:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, this guy's going to beat zone until the day his legs don't operate right because he's going to be able to find soft spots. He understands the route tree, and it probably was just an awful fit with a very chaotic Caleb Williams offense. That wasn't like we're going to hit our three step drop and get the ball out right, Like that's where Keenan's going to operate.

00:24:47
Speaker 1: Well, Well, if people are gonna sit here making excuses for Romadunsa, which I'm here for, like you can make an excuses for Dunsay, do the same thing for Keenan Allen right, like he was in the same offense. He's in the same system. I just I don't think that we can pick and choose just based on the fact that one guy's a second year player and one guy's you know, a veteran for.

00:25:05
Speaker 2: Sure, and then two players single digit percentage you're underweight on that you want to draft a little bit more Jacoby Myers and AJ Brown.

00:25:12
Speaker 1: Yes, look, the Jacoby Meyers thing is more so just like he's really really solid. I just I want to get at least to like six to ten percent with him and just feel comfortable because he's just a solid player. I mean, he's actually beat ADP pretty well over the last few years or a couple of years. The AJ Brown thing in my head, I'm like, he is such a smash pick, right, I'm at seven percent. AJ Brown. I want to be at like ten right now. But I haven't gotten a lot of that like six to eight range in drafts, and I'm usually at like the anchors, right, so I'm like one to three or ten to twelve. And when you're in those positions, you're sitting there in the second round and you're like, I really want the emerging year two wide receiver or Nico Collins or someone like that over AJ Brown, because like, what if this is the year that things start to go south for AJ Brown. I don't think that's the case. I actually think that, if anything, he is like a hyper especially like if he falls in your season long league and stuff. He's something that you should be targeting because Philadelphia is going to throw the ball mar this year. It is almost definitely going to happen. If you look at the seven teams since twenty eleven outside of Philadelphia that had pass rates under forty five percent, they were at like forty one percent last year. If you look at those seven teams, all of them except for one, it was Baltimore Lamar Jackson from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty. All of them, though, saw a massive increase in pass rate from one year to the next, and it's just because of regressions. Just things don't go as cleanly from one year to the next. Jalen Hurts had like five fewer pass attempts per game last year than what he's typically seen as starter in Philadelphia. So I think AJ Brown is a very very, very very good pick, and it's just been weird that I haven't gotten more of him because I like him a lot. It's just there's so many other players in that range that are just so good. Speaks to what a lot of us are saying in the space right now is that this is the best first and like the first round into the middle of the second round, probably the best fantasy assets that I've ever seen covering fantasy football, Like if you like, it's kind of nice too, because typically we've seen like top three, you know, front, the front part of drafts have an advantage, just a natural advantage in terms of win rate in your typical fantasy league. And now once you get into like the back half of the second round, it's not as strong, Like you don't feel as good about Josh Jacobs as you do, you know, like one of some of these elite wide receivers, and that's actually giving more of an advantage, I think to the middle and the late parts of round one, which we don't typically see. So I'm I'm into basically any part of the first round at the end of the day, because you are getting an elite player early, but the second round is one as good, whereas you know in the middle and late first area, you're able to get really really good second round picks.

00:27:55
Speaker 2: I gotta say, I think this ad round stuff is a little disrespectful, Like this is like a walking fourteen hundred yards, So I find it hard to take both Drake and Ladd above him. And yeah, yeah, and based on historics, like you're saying, if we can expect the type of regression back to the mean with regards to passing volume from Philadelphia, Like it's really hard for me to click these guys over aged brown.

00:28:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, and look trends really love Year two guys, Year three guys, you know, like in the early rounds and players who are coming off of good peripheral seasons, but like a j. Brown is really good peripherals too, like he's It's just it's a boring pick, which is why people aren't as into it. And I keep thinking to myself, Oh, there's gonna be drafts where he falls a little bit, because he does fall at times in these drafts, and I'll just get him then. But I just have it that hasn't happened enough, like I need to force it a little bit more, which is why I'm calling him out. I didn't talk about Romeo Dobbs though either. You know, obviously the Jordan love thing I talked about earlier. That's why Dobbs is my number one exposed wide receiver at this point at twenty seven percent. It's just weird to me, Like the dude led the Packers last year in target share per game and he's gonna be on the field in two wide receiver sets with Matthew Golden. Why are we none of that? You don't have Christian Watson healthy for the first at least half of the season. Dantavian Wicks has had plenty of struggles. I mean, I'll throw a dart at Wix as well in Green Bay stacks, but you know Wis has had his troubles. I think we're looking at an obvious eleven personnel set of Romeo Dobbs, Matthew Golden, and Jayden Reid Like that's it. And in two wide sets you're gonna get Dubbs and Golden. And so that's why I've been gravitating towards him and drafting him, you know, more than than I expected, for sure. I just I just am am baffled by his ADP at the end of the day, that's what I think he should be drafted around, at least around earlier in a best ball environment. Is is this ceiling really high? No, I'm not gonna draft a guy like this in season long because it's not he's He's more than likely not gonna be a league winning player, but that kind of player can still win you a single week and be fine in this kind of environment.

00:30:02
Speaker 2: It's just the boring pick. It's just what you said about aj Brown, Like people are staring down the barrel of Romeo Dobbs and they're like, oh, let me take a Xavier Laguette or Jalen McMillan, somebody else who's younger and exciting as opposed to the guy who just keeps on doing it.

00:30:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, who's just solid. You know, I think he's He's a pretty easy bet to beat ADP and best ball, all while being on a team that should throw more, all all being on a team that could have that sort of outlier passing touchdown season, all that kind of stuff, And why not just just feed into that. I mean, we're drafting Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden for the same Obviously, there's the ambiguity of Golden, and Jayden Reed has been unbelievable per route run. But I do think that Dobbs just kind of gets like shoved aside because he's not that fun and not that intriguing, even though he's I mean, look what he did in the playoffs a couple of years ago. He's shown us a ceiling like it's very possible that he could, you know, win you a given week.

00:30:57
Speaker 2: Tight end. Brenton Strange leads the lay at twenty two percent. Trey McBride joins him at exactly twenty percent. Jatavian Sanders, Noah Gray, Tyler Higbee in the high teens. Let's talk tight end JJ.

00:31:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, so Brenton Strange last year in his five games with a seventy percent Roulet participation, which I think he's gonna hit pretty consistently in Jacksonville this year. He had a top ten performance in three of those five games. Obviously, Travis Hunter is now part of the picture, but he should be the number three target in this offense, in this passing offense. Maybe Diami Brown sneaks in, but I think that we could project him form like a fifteen percent target chair in the offense, and he's cheap, you know, at the end of the day, it's an ascending offense. It's one I want to invest in. So I'm drafting Brenton Strange Trey McBride. I think this one is kind of self explanatory where I would rather be drafting him where he goes, because the opportunity costs. Like I said, in the back half of the second round and into the third round, it's just not nearly as dramatic as it is where brock Bauers goes. Right, brock Bauers, you're taking him over AJ Brown, You're taking him over Nico Collins or or you know, Drake London or someone like that. Whereas Trey McBride you're taking him over t Higgins. You know, JSN, you know these players that aren't obviously as elite as or in the most amazing circumstances from a JSN perspective, you know, as we get with some of those other wide receivers in the in the early second round, and then also if you get you know, the one on one, which I've been fortunate to get probably more than expected at this point. I like to bring Jamar Chase back with Trey McBride for the week seventeen correlation, so I have a decent amount of Tree McBride Jatavian Sanders, like a lot of these other guys are just late round dart throw because I'm going three tight end builds. I'm just gonna get these cheap guys. You guys should listen to the episode that I dropped the Late Round podcast on Tuesday about the tight end dead zone because this is the kind of range, like you just want to throw darts at these guys as opposed to really staking claim and getting like Travis Kelcey this year, who I think is probably the most overvalued player on DraftKings at this point. But Davian Sanders eighteen percent with him probably too high. Probably want to bring that down a little bit. A lot of that has do with me getting Bryce Young a decent bit. But you know Tommy Trumple had back surgery. He's supposed to be back, but who knows what happens. You know, he had an injury this offseason, and you're getting a second year tight end. So that's pretty intriguing Noah Gray. I'm betting on Kelsey winding down his career and really continuing on what we saw last year, especially with Rashid Rice. In last year, Travis Kelce averaged like five PPR points per game, and that's in that limited sample. But Noah Gray was still getting some work, like he can still get some while being sort of a handcuff in that offense. So I like Gray, especially going back to liking Denver. I'm going to bring it back with with with Kansas City a little bit. He's a very cheap way of doing that. I like Brishard Smith as well. I've been doing that with that with their rookie back. But and then Tyler Higbee. I love Terrence Ferguson. Anyone who read the Prospect Guy knows that the model loves Terrence Ferguson, I just don't know if it's going to be a twenty twenty five thing, and so I'm betting on Travis on Tyler Higbee here. You know, it's fine if you want to draft some Ferguson. I've gotten him at times as well. Maybe we see a end of the season kind of performance from him, But we've seen Higbee thrive in this offense before, and so you know, given the fact that they don't have much outside of Adams in Nikua, I think that Higbee could carve out a fifteen percent target shag trying to roll and give us some random spiked week which is not difficult to do at tight end because all you need to do is find the end zone or just catch a few passes. So beginning higbe a decent bit too.

00:34:28
Speaker 2: Both Ferguson and Higbee took a hit when the Rams signed Davante Adams. They both tumbled. Higbee a full round Tarren Ferguson almost two rounds. With the massive target share that probably is going to go to to Tay's way. But yeah, that first year tight end, it's the toughest position to learn in the league, So tempering expectations there is probably a fair play. There is a guy who you were severely underweight on. He's attached to a quarterback who we've doneped on a couple of times.

00:34:58
Speaker 1: See Are on the podcast say on Laporta, Yeah, I gotta get a little bit more Laporta. I'm fine with being underweight on Laporta and underweight on Hockinson and definitely underweight on Kelsey, but I should be more in that like four to eight percent range with Laporta, and I'm only in the two percent range right now. Some of that just as team building. Some of it is me not realizing that I haven't gotten as much Laporta as I thought. So when I'm at that, like into the sixth round and if I drafted Domin ross Aint Brown, which I have, I'm still drafting him. I just haven't clicked Laporta's name. It definitely plays into some of the trends that I talk about in the Draft Guy. But even still I should have more Laporta than I do.

00:35:35
Speaker 2: Speaking of, as we wrap up the tight end position episode nine nine nine on the precipice of one thousand, can you believe you made it?

00:35:45
Speaker 1: I know what's funny, Like I was talking to David Kitchen about this, and it's like, yeah, that's you know, episode one thousand's happening next week because I have a Perspective's episode this week, So next week will be episode one thousand of the Late Round podcast. But I'm like, you know what, I've done, what like sixty Perspectives episodes at this point, and I've done you know, a lot, like a lot of becoming a Best Ball bro episode. So like, is it episode one thousand, It's episode one thousand of the Solo Show, is what it really comes down to.

00:36:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, artificial number. Leave it to Jayjay to be overly critical of the own numerology of his podcast releases.

00:36:22
Speaker 1: Yeah it was. It's really my fault for numbering them in the first place. But anyway, we do have a guest today, Tom Stracken, writer, podcast host, editor at Fantasy Pros. Great guy from across the Pond. He's the co creator of the Fantasy Football Sanctuary. He's a Best Ball streamer and analyst. We talked about optimal lineup construction, forcing three quarterback and three tight end builds, some low cost stacks, and so much more. So, without further ado, here is my interview with Tom. All Right, Tom, we're now into July, you being across upon you're probably in August at this point, right, That's that's how it works.

00:37:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely. I mean I'm just waiting for the season to start. It's just you guys being lazy, so catch up.

00:37:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, typical Americans, Right, typical Americans. But we're now in July. Different parts of the summer, you might have different strategies when it comes to, you know, approaching you know, the MILLI approaching these different best ball contests. Do you approach things differently when you are in August versus a let's say May or early June.

00:37:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you can approach the best Bawl season as it is now in a kind of evolving way as it goes through early on. You definitely like the way I like to approach it is taking some slightly safer builds, taking some stuff where it's like, okay, well I feel covered because I've got three quarterbacks. Like I can go back to the year where I drafted far too much Trey Lance and it's going that was a year where two QB builds worked out poorly for me. But if I'd hedged a little bit, then I would have had some more three QB builds that be safe. Now, by the time you got in the training camp that year, you already started to hear whispers about how it wasn't necessarily as impressive amount of hope. So I think now is the time where you can start to take your stances. You can start to build your player takes. We've gone through the part where things maybe need to be a little bit safer, and now's the time where you know you want to be in the coach speaking dex, you want to be reading the athletic daily, you want to be paying attention on Twitter to the people who put out sensible information, who have the time to go through even more of this content than you do, and then use that to start trying to create an edge. Like every year, we always see running backs start to get pushed up around this time, and that's as people who perhaps slightly more casual than the people who are drafting hundreds of drafts tend to push those running backs up. So being ready to maybe fade some of those running backs who get pushed up past the point where you're comfortable with is something I've done in previous years. We also see rookie prices deflate around this time of year, you know, coming off the draft, they're always incredibly hyped. They're always everybody's reading the Late Round Rookie Guide and everybody's hyped, and everybody's ready to go out and draft these guys. And then OTA's and Mini camp hit and we start to see their prices subdue a little bit more. But now is the time we get back in on the ones who you've got conviction on, because this is as cheap as you're ever going to get them. And then the last part, which I kind of lean into heavily, is but by now we've gotten to know over parts of the draft where we can extract value. I know that pac Raine talked about like drafting from back to front, the road of his principle that Sean Siegel talks about and talked about guys like Rushard Bateman and one Dale Robinson in that kind of area, and leaning towards certain guys that it all comes from that sort of stuff. Knowing there's QB heavy areas of a draft, there's tie ened heavy areas of a draft, where do I want my exposure to be? So you have very much different drafts now to May, when it's kind of just getting your first feel for the landscape.

00:40:07
Speaker 1: Are you concerned at all about different combinations that you might have gotten early in the season. So, just as an example, let's just say you know over on DraftKings, you'll see Nico Collins and Brian Thomas, let's say, or a common pairing that you'll see at like the one two turn area. Let's say you get Nico in the first round and you know, now, okay, it's been May, June and most of July, and now we're into August, and we know that those ADPs have been relatively stagnant and in the same area throughout the summer. Are you then going to instead of taking Brian Thomas, take a Rashi Rice or someone who is more on the other end of the second round to get sort of a unique combination there that others want wouldn't get, Or are you still mostly playing the ADP game and the value game because you know that you just straight up like Brian Thomas more than Rashi Rice this year.

00:40:54
Speaker 3: It's a really good question because it gets like, I think we all get a little bit bored with being on the turn by the time You've done one hundred, two hundred and three hundred drafts, and it's like, Okay, am I really just going to try and get the Joe Burrow double stack again? Or am I going to try I on the other end and mixing as you said, like I'm Mon Rah and Brian Thomas or similar. And I can definitely see arguments for it. I've done drafts where maybe you pull Nico Collins to the first half, like the first four picks of the draft, and then if you do that, I feel like you only need that one pick to be incredibly different and then the rest of your draft is going to bring you into different combinations. But generally speaking, it's not something I'm looking to do in the back half of the first round this year, because the back half this round feels really strong to me. There's about four or five guys in Round two who I feel confident in and that I want combinations of them, you know, looking at guys like Nico and Drake London, Nico and Derrick Henry like all the way down of Nico and brought Bours, like, I want a mix of them. But I'm not necessarily going crazily out of the way to get it. I think with DraftKings releasing more pick by pick data this year than they ever have done, there's plenty of good information out there on what the combos are, like Dan Falkenheim on Twitter and Chris cash and both wrote some nice stuff from there about it, and I think if you could just be a little mindful and not necessarily go out of your way to do this every time, then you can open up different builds and really help you if you can make it to week seventeen.

00:42:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, there is there an optimal roster construction that you're striving for over on draftings.

00:42:35
Speaker 3: I mean it kind of comes down to how do you want to how do you want to view optimal roster construction? Because there's one build that stood out massively over the years, and that's three six eight three, So three quarterbacks, six running backs, eight wide receivers and three tight ends go back to twenty twenty two, and that was eighteen percent of all drafts in the final were made up by three six eight three. We don't have the data for the entire you know, almost million drafts that we're done, Yeah, but we know it made up eighteen percent of the final so it must have been a fairly big number, and that was the only roster construction over ten percent of the finalists that year twenty twenty three, that jumped to twenty four percent. Again it was the only build above thirteen percent. But then last year it represented thirty four percent of the one thousand and twenty one finalists, so you know, one of three teams and it was the only build over twelve percent. So I think you can definitely look through a lens and say three six eight three has been consistently represented in the finals, and because of that, that's a build that we know works. The team that won it last year was a three six eight three team, and we talk about that more as we kind of get into it. But then the other teams who've won over the last few years. Twenty twenty one was a three five ten to two shout out to Felix who won that year, Great Guy. Twenty twenty two was a four to six seven three, and then these last two years have been three six eight three. So I think three six eight three is a comfortable build. You know, it allows you to get three quarterbacks, three tight ends, It allows you to not be two light of running backs and it allows you to be heavier on wide receiver, which we kind of want to be doing as we can start to four wide receivers every week compared with even if you have a running back in the flex that's only three. So I do think three six eight three wants to be a healthy part of people's portfolios year to year. But the other builds that tend to do well at things like three five nine three two six nine three two seven eight three. But the thing that mad beyond anything to do with roster construction last year was that the team who won it had b Jean Robinson at six percent ownership, Trey McBride at six percent ownership, and Ricky piersall at seven percent ownership, scored twenty five or more points and they only had three players across the whole starting lineup who were over ten percent rostered. And when you get to these finals crafts and it is top heavy, you've seen you know, Jared Goff was on thirty five percent of rosters. Yeah, Brian Thomas Junior was on forty percent of rosters. So having those low owned players I think is almost as important, if not more important, than the actual makeup of your roster.

00:45:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean squeaking by right and just and maybe not having the best roster imaginable in Week sixteen, but just getting by uh and being able to get through into the final with those unique players, which unfortunately isn't totally in our control, but you know, it is something to keep in mind, you know, as you're sort of following your teams this year. So you mentioned the three six eighty three, which seems to be a default build that as you're drafting, you just kind of gravitate towards, like even if you go more hero running back or wait for running back until like round seven or so, you can kind of compile a decent amount of running backs from round seven to round you know, twelve or what have you, and thirteen and still feel pretty good at running back to still stick with six. But you're drafting three quarterbacks and three tight ends with that kind of build. Are you still doing that? I'm gonna ask you for both quarterback and tight end here? Are you still going with three tight ends or three quarterbacks often if you get an elite player at that position. So at tight end, if you get a Brock Bauers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, are you still going with a three tight end build? And then at quarterback if you're getting Lamar or Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts or Jayden Daniels, are you getting three quarterbacks in that kind of environment as well?

00:46:36
Speaker 3: Yeah? So starting with tight end, I mean, well, let's go back to last year's winning team. They had Trey McBride, who went nuclear in Week seventeen. The other two tight ends they had Bensonnott and Theo Johnson. Now, Ben Sinnott had four weeks where he scored any points and only one over three points. Yeah, Theo Johnson was injured in week thirteen. He had three games over eight points. So I think it's fairly safe to assume that Tray McBride was in that lineup every single week apart from his bye week. So you can carry guys on DraftKings to a level I don't think you can in eighteen round formats. I think generally. One of the things that I've come to realize on that side is that you can get away with a little bit more. You can be a little bit heftier at certain positions and just carry players, not necessarily for safety, but to give you potential outs for upside, and my attitude to tight end comes back that I want guys generally who were stacked with my quarterbacks and correlate them because you know, it just makes dealing with this most unpredictable position in fantasy so much easier, and that kind of tends to lead me to three tight end builds. It also allows you to say I'm gonna shoot for upside on tight end late in drafts because we've seen what like in twenty twenty three, Sam Laporta, Colcomette, Hunter, Henry We're all really good late round picks. Then Johnny Smith and Zach Ertz last year were really good late round tight ends, So I'm fine with that. I know last year was kind of a good year for four tight end builds compared to previous but I just I struggle putting that many eggs into the tight end position. And it's yeah, free kind of feels like the max that I tend to and I feel quite comfortable with that. And I know some people prefer to build a bit more fragile when they've taken their elite tight end, but in general, I'm thinking I need in week fifteen, sixteen seventeen, I need those correlations. I need those stacks and I need that way of maximizing my score. So yeah, generally speaking, it's free tight ends for me. But at quarterback, I'm not taking quarterbacks unstacked like and we could talk more about like stacking and much how often that's being done, but like, it's one of the principles of the best ball that I just like, even if it doesn't always work out it's one but when it does work out one percent, outcomes are so beneficial that I want to lean into them. And on DraftKings with a three hundred passing yard bonus, if you have a quarterback who gets that three point bonus for the three hundred passing yards and you've got a pass catcher who hits for one hundred yards plus touchdowns, that's when you can separate in your twelve man part. That's when you can find it easier to elevate. So having those kind of stacks through the playoff rounds matters to me. I think when we look at some of the previous winners, there haven't been teams who've overstacked. There have been teams that have gone skinny stacks like quarterback plus one pass catcher quarterback plus two pass catchers. So in general, I'm not going overboard with my stacks, but I want to build a team where I have monster upside at running back, wide receiver, and then if I can make the quarterback and the tight ends positions just glue to. Whether that's through bringbacks for Week seventeen or whether that's through stacks, I'm generally going there. And one area where I feel particularly confident with the quarterback position this year. It's kind of like round eight through round twelve. There's such a lot of quarterbacks, and especially on DraftKings where we see the quarterbacks, when we start to go, you can get shut out of the room quite quickly. I feel like that range is probably going to be key between about round eight and round thirteen round fourteen for both quarterback and the tight end position. And I think if you can hit on the best quarterback from that range, in the best tight end from that range, then that might be enough to take you into a really profitable position this year.

00:50:42
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, look that the quarterback position especially just goes and goes and goes in that range, and it seems like it's just gotten, it's just shrunk in terms of getting like the Bryce Youngs or the Aaron Rodgers of the world. Yeah, you can't get them as late as you could, you know, at the beginning of the summer. And all that's doing for me at least is making me feel like I feel better and more okay with getting like Dak Prescott or Brock Purty because there's not as much opportunity cost whenever those other guys are then going just a little bit later instead of a decent bit later. Right, And So to that point though, does that mean that you're avoiding or not drafting as many of the early round quarterbacks this year.

00:51:22
Speaker 3: No, not necessarily. I mean, look, I'm a Ravens fan, so I'm always going to be overweight on Lamar every year, you know, much like when Liam was on and talked about how he's always going to have exposure to Josh Allen. Like, when you're a fan of these guys who give even nuclear ceilings, it's very difficult to pass them up. But I want the guys who have the potential to the three hundred passing yard games and the one hundred rushing yard games, so it's like they can really elevate Lamar. Josh Allen we've seen it. Jalen Hurts feels fine, feels undervalued. It feels like people are possibly dinging him a little too hard last year. I think if you're not drafting Jalen Hurts, then you should be heavy on Saquon Barkley, expecting Sequon Barkley would be great Again, I'm a little nervous about Saquon Barkley, so I'm finding it easier to you know, the double stack of aj Brown and Devanta Smith with Jalen Hurts is achievable this year. I want exposure to that, and then Jade Daniels obviously is definitely worth it. So yeah, I do like these guys, but it kind of comes down to a draft capital conversation. If I'm taking these, then I'm looking to maybe get one quarterback in the early double digit round, somebody like c J. Stroud, Jordan Love, maybe even Justin Herbert, and then I'm punting the third quarterback quite late to really be maybe somebody like Daniel Jones because my chip's kind of more in on him starting the majority of the season with Anthony Richardson.

00:52:50
Speaker 1: So, with draftings being a full PPR platform, do you think that going with a robust RB type strategy, like getting a running back with your first three? Is it viable? Has data said anything historically? Is it something that you've done or are you more let's get an anchor or let's go zero RB and let's focus on the position that likely will hit the flex more frequently, you know, on wide receiver on a full PPR platform and kind of go that route.

00:53:17
Speaker 3: Generally speaking, I've been more zero RB hero RB, but last year felt like a year where you could change that because the rooms that we were being given because of ADP, and to even to an extent this year, maybe we're still seeing it. I remember doing streams last year and if I started running back and running back all of a sudden, but chat explodes, Yeah, what happened to you? All that kind of stuff? It was fair for you. So I don't know quite about robust because the wide receiver cliff edge can come and make it quite difficult. But I mean last year's when they had Derrick Henry b Jon Robinson, so that was most likely around one round two double tap. They also then went on to have Bucky who you know you hit on the breakout running back. Great, but then they had David Montgomery who was kind of fine lost for the back end of the season, Raheem Mostly who gave you very little, Justice Hill, who gave you mediocre returns. So that was just an example of a really smart build where they allocated the draft capital. It was done well, and I think that's what you have to do if you're going to go running back heavy in the first few rounds. I mean, Michaelly only wrote this in the Best Ball Manifesto. You can either draft a lot of running backs or you can draft running backs early. You can't do both, So tapping out at like five running back, builds six running back at the most, but really waiting on them, like the robust build three running backs through four rounds. Back in twenty twenty two, it was nearly nine percent. It fell down to six percent in twenty twenty three. Last year. People just weren't doing it as much. I think out of the finals teams ony twenty one teams before teams got to pick six, generally speaking, most teams only had two running backs. Forty four percent of the teams had two running backs at that point, only one percent had four or more running backs, and only twelve percent had three running backs, so people were leaning towards the wide receivers and this played out as well because wide receivers were represented well. I mean, Brian Thomas was breaking out down the back end of season. Obviously Jamar Chase was incredible, but out of the finalist teams, forty nine percent of them had taken two wide receivers within their first thirty six picks. Because the guys you needed were those guys who were just hitting at the right time, like a mont Ra Saint Brown, Justin Jefferson, DeVante Adams, like we're all peaking as the playoffs hit. So I don't think robustar B can't work. I just think it's incredibly difficult and you've got a fred and needle, and then when you do it, you need to hit on the wide receivers in the middle rounds, the guys like the year Cooper Cup had his edible season. You need that kind of return from those rounds to make it work.

00:56:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I know with my season long analysis, wide receivers at the top versus running backs at the top generally have better hit rates. And that's that's even looking at players who played eight or more games, and you're looking at it from a points per game perspective, so that's not even factoring in injury stuff or anything like that. If you want to say that running backs get hurt maybe a little bit more than wide receivers, do you know this is it's you got to spend up to get the elite wide receivers. At the end of the day, it's a lot more difficult to find them in the middle of late round.

00:56:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, and generally speaking, like over the last couple of years, we've seen the running backs towards the top been healthier than the wide receivers, right, Like I think it's like I can't remember the day off the top of my head, but like it's swung by about a percent or two into the average games played, and that cent matters a lot. Like obviously you don't want to count on this going forward, but maybe in five years we sit here and go, you know what, running backs found better ways to protect themselves, better way to elongate their career. And if we just assume that running backs are going to keep getting injured at a way they did five years ago, that's when you can find yourself behind the eight ball.

00:57:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, one hundred percent. I mean that's why to me, like, whenever I do that analysis, I'm just looking at what players who were healthy and who did play eight or more games. I think a lot of times we overstate our assumptions of who gets hurt most and who do you know, all that kind of stuff, or it's just easier to say, Okay, assuming health, this is what goes down. And what goes down is that you do see a little bit better of a hit rate at wide receiver than you do at running back, and it's just going to be pretty difficult to hit those really really high ceilings at wide receiver. It's especially true in season long because there's the predictability aspect. You know, backup running backs are naturally going to be more predictable than a backup wide receiver is just because they step in and the coach says, here, take the ball and run the football and you can accumulate fantasy points, whereas at wide receiver there's a lot more nuanced to it. You got to get open, you know, you got to be on the same as the quarterback and all that stuff. It's a little bit more talent driven. So I do think that that's one of the reasons why you're likely seeing what you're seeing too. In the in the best ball data is that wide receivers don't emerge the way that that running backs do at times, you know when you need that, like two weeks stretch. I mean, I've I have pooped on Zamir White like crazy over the last year and a half, but I can't deny that he was a decent enough fantasy asset down the stretch a couple of years ago. And that was someone who was not on many people's radars that year, you know, at least from a season long perspective. But we knew going into that week, Okay, he's probably gonna be the bell cow, so we can throw him into our lineup that kind of thing. Yes, you'll get the rookie wide receivers that'll that'll you know, break out and stuff like that, but you know you're generally gonna see like the high end, high end outcomes from those earlier round wide receivers, which is which is likely why you're seeing you know, what you're seeing from a best ball standpoint.

00:58:51
Speaker 3: In general, We've got to this point with best ball as well, in particular where best ball content is like I can click on YouTube and there'll be three or four people I followed streaming at any one time, and there's very much been a comfortability within the content create a space of going wide receiver heavy, and Pete Oversett talked about this last year, like how to avoid the wide receiver avalanches, And it's just always balancing what the room has given you with kind of what you want to hit. And there's definitely been times where I've been guilty of trying to force a structure or trying to force something because historically that's been something that's paid off. But when the room and BADP is so drastically different, then we do have to adjust. And what I'm still trying to get my head around is has it changed drastically enough from last year that we shouldn't be leaning into the tendencies of, like, you know, slightly heavier running back drafts.

00:59:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think on DraftKings as well. And this is kind of like taking what you just said to a kind of different level and to a different conversation in a way, but I do think that on DraftKings, what I've found is that when you're drafting in the early rounds, like round up through like round seven, round eight, I found myself this year because this is the first year where I've gotten more heavy on DK. I've found myself having pretty uncorrelated lineups at times through like round seven. But I do think the extra couple rounds helps a little bit with you feeling okay about being a little bit less correlated through the first couple, like through the first like six or handful of rounds. And I say that to what you were just speaking to in terms of like forcing things, and you know, drafting positions that you might not feel comfortable drafting, I think it's okay to kind of get the falling values instead of instead of like forcing the issue of oh I really want a zero RB lineup or oh I really want just this hero RB or anchor RB lineup, because this is what seems to be optimal. I think on draftings in particular, you can make up for what might not be the most correlated lineup early on. Maybe it's because of the extra couple of rounds. Maybe it's because of the demographic that's drafting there. I'm not sure, but it does seem like you can recover a lot easily or more easily on DK than I've experienced before.

01:01:04
Speaker 3: This yeah, I think just to a wider point, I think, going back to some said earlier, I think you can just get away with more on DraftKings if you hit on the right combination of players. So the team that went it in twenty twenty two had Russell Wilson stacked with Jerry Judy from their Broncos days. That was the only QB pass catcher combination on the team. They then had a team stack of the Eagles Kenneth Game, Will, AJ Brown, Davanta Smith without Jalen Hurts, and that was it. There were no more correlations on the team. They had four qbs, including Jordan Love who barely played that year, Jacoby Brissette, who I kind of remember whether he touched the field, and then it was Trevor Lawrence, Russell Wilson. What they did have was they had Christie McCaffrey, They had AJ Brown, they had Mike Evans who scored a ridiculous amount of points in championship week. They had DeVonta Smith, TJ. Hockinson who was very good that year. So they just hit all the right parts and they did it in a way that worked. So the big thing that I have learned with DraftKings is understanding that each room is going to be completely different from the last and being able to say, Okay, I'm not going to be able to go through my checklist of my ideal draft and go I would like this correlation, I would like this stack, I would like this many wide receivers by this point, just to just take the best players, but you can at the best moments and be mindful towards back. As you said about, can I add some correlation? Can I add some think as a tiebreaker that's going to help my roster a little bit? And if not, then just lean into the picks that you've got conviction on.

01:02:40
Speaker 1: Are there any stacks right now that you've sort of gravitated towards most that you've been drafting most?

01:02:45
Speaker 3: Yeah, so kind of the cheaper ones, the Titans and the Panthers. I think it's really easy to add those as late round stacks. I'm quite high on the Titans in general. This year. I think cam Wood's gonna really help that offense. I think the coaching staff has had their hands tied back behind the back so far since I got to Tennessee, and I think this year, with the new offensive line, it's going to make a big, a big difference within reason as we talk about rookies, yeah, of course, and then the Panthers. It's just so easy to get to those to that range and go okay, whether I've got or not. I'm looking at Adam feel and I'm looking at Xavier Lage, Jalen Coka, I'm looking at j Tavian Sanders as the last round dart throw and just taking Bryce Young and saying, I'm just going to add a couple of these pieces. And then the one which I can't get enough of is the Rams double stacks with Poka, Devonte Adams and Matthew Stafford. Like Matthew Stafford last year, I think he had ten games where he failed to score pass for more than a single touchdown. I think he's due positive regression. I think that Poka could be due some because through two years we've only seen nine touchdowns from him. He commands the volume, which on a PPR site has definitely been enough over the last couple of years. But if he could add all touchdowns, that would be fantastic. And then Adams, I think Adams definitely brings that level of being reliable enough in the red zone. So I think they're the kind of offense. But I look at I don't feel particularly worried about any of the defenses that they're going to face. And yeah, I want to lean into the Rams heavily this year.

01:04:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the call out of the Rams. I mean, I I think we're gonna see Pooka and DeVante Adams clear a if they're both healthy, of course, but clear pretty pretty easily a fifty percent target share in that offense. Oh yeah, There's just there's not much else going on. I'm actually I think you can throw I've been throwing plenty of darts at Tyler Higbye, you know, at the end of Drafts two in that stack, and you know, I I love Terrence Ferguson as a prospect, But it seems like one of those situations where it's more of that Dynasty vibe as opposed to maybe happening this year. I mean, I hope it happens this year, just from my from my from my for my brand and the Dynasty bags. But I do think that, you know, even Tyler Higbee is someone that that we can we can look to, and there's just not much outside of that, Like how would they not see that high of a target.

01:05:02
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, And because of this, I've ended up drafting a decent amount of too to out well because right we know, the Rams have run free wide receiver sets at some of the heaviest rates in the league over the last two years, and DeMarcus Robinson was the guy who was benefiting from that and benefit into the tune of like wide receiver. Three weeks they prioritize signing too to out well And I'm willing to go and say, what round eighteen, nineteen twenty. Sure, it's comfortable leaning into one of the convictions I have on a good offense.

01:05:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you mentioned the Panthers. I got a shout out Bryce young is he might be my highest roster quarterback at this point.

01:05:36
Speaker 3: The dude's going to run more, isn't he. Like you look at the splits down the back end, and just like his sack avoidance practically every advanced stat that you look at. It was just night and day to the first three weeks of a season where when he got benched I just assumed we were never going to see him starting again toast. Yeah, and I like what the Panthers have done this season I think the defense looks like it's going to be a real problem for them. Again, they look to be kind of lacking in talent and depth, and then that just means good things for fantasy. We could see another pass heavy script for him.

01:06:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, him and him and Drake May They're both of their ADPs have just been kind of too strange. Like yeah, like Bryce, Bryce feels like he should be about a round higher than he than he goes in that format. But I'll take it. I'll be I'll be continuing to draft those Panthers. Are there any any players that you're just straight up avoiding at cost right now?

01:06:24
Speaker 3: Yeah? So this story is one where it potentially can get you into trouble. Like the last couple of years, there's been players who have completely faded who've come back to burn me. Alvin Kamara last year with somebody who got I got hurt quite badly by But James Cook is that guy this year. One percent owned through one hundred and seventy hundred and eighty drafts so far, led fantasy and touchdowns last year, but thirty nine percent of his total points came from the touchdowns, and he was only twenty fourth in total yardage. That just makes me think that he's prime for total regression. I think Ray Davis is going to see it spanded workload. The Bills aren't famous for giving rookies huge amount of workloads straight away, but Ray Davis felt like he earned it. So I'm very much just kind of out on James Cook. But what I would say is that if you believe James Cook is going to get any kind of contract extension, then now would be the time of drafting before he sees bumping adp DeAndre Swift one percent on him as well. He just always plays himself out of a role, and I think the price is kind of fair. But it's more that rang in drafts like you look at Jordan Addison, Deebo, Samuel Roman, Dunzee, I prefer taking shots on him. Trevion Henderson, R. J. Harvey, James Connor are all guys that I feel better about. So it's quite difficult for me to pass all those guys up for him. And then the last two I'll give you as a combination, and this is definitely one which could sting me. But Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelcey, I'm at one percent on both of them, And part of this just comes from the last couple of years. Matt Naggie has just really made this offense not fun to watch, not fun to draft a fantasy and it's just how to avoid the fact that, like Travis Kelce, he only forced three missed tackles last year. He ranked twenty six out of thirty one to tight ends and yards after the catch, and he just doesn't seem to have any juice. Maybe he can get there in PPR, but I just feel like they are better bets that I want to make.

01:08:25
Speaker 1: I love the call out. I think Travis Kelce is the most overdrafted player on the board on DraftKings right now. It doesn't make any sense to me based on he's being drafted basically where he finished last year, and where he finished last year was in an offense that didn't have Rashie Rice in it and had a rookies Avier Worthy and didn't have Hollywood Brown. And if you look at his split in those first few games with Rashi Rice, he was seeing like a fourteen percent target year. I mean, he was averaging like five PPR points per game. It was absolutely horrendous. He kind of got by on volume but all of his efficiency metrics were putrid last year. I mean it was clearly you know, of course, bouncebacks can happen and anything's possible, But I think in this case, when you're talking about an age tight end, when they show you something like this, it's probably smart to err on the side of caution as opposed to leaning into the opposite happening, you know, with a guy like Kelsey.

01:09:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, and part of this comes back to my Ravens bias as well, But I don't understand why Mark Andrews is going behind Travis Kelcey at this point. If we're fading Mark Andrews because of Isaiah Likely, then the Rashie Rice poist is even more of an issue because the way Isaiah Likely wins on the field is different to how Mark Andrews wins. Rashie Rice and Travis Kelcey. They play a very similar kind of games. So it's strange me and Yes, Mark Andrews got them massively through touchdown. Josh Nrris pointed out that Mark Andrews had fifteen red zone touchdowns and walked away with what like eleven touchdowns last year, which is prime for regression. But I have more conviction in Mark Andrews. He's been Travis Kelsey by a country mile.

01:10:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially I cost right, I mean, he's gone, He's going well after him. I've gotten a decent amount of Noah Gray just to kind of hedge against the Travis Kelcey love on DraftKings and knowing that Gray had his like he might have a handful of usable weeks this year. And then also if there's an injury that happens that he would be the starting tight end for Kansas City.

01:10:20
Speaker 3: Yeah. Absolutely, And that's the perfect kind of like late late dart fro Yeah, on DraftKings, but is much easier than on an eighteen round format.

01:10:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, one hundred percent. All right, last question, who are you overweight on this year? Who are the guys you like? It's always easier to talk about the guys that you like than the guys that you're you know, more fading or avoiding. But who are some of the guys you're overweight on?

01:10:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, So Trey McBride fifteen percent is probably my most overweight in the first few rounds. I mean, look, probably don't need a dwindle on Tray McBride too long. If positive touchdown regression can literally ever hit for Trey McBride. Then, I mean, as we would say over here in England where Quid's in. I just I think the volume of receptions and targets but he earns is so impressive and he's a very easy click for me. Calvin Ridley, I'm at twenty three percent on him, Like people are down on Ridley, He's going pretty much similar to where he went last year Will Levis, and Will Levis just destroyed his fancy value. Like among wide receivers with fifty plus catches last year, Ridley ranked seventy eighth in catchable target rate. That was out of eighty five qualifying players. Then when Ridley did have the ball, he ranked fifteenth in misstackles forced eighth and yards per reception. I'm just counting on cam Ward to be there, Like I already talked about that with Stacks. I think the offensive line is going to help cam Ward hit the ground running to a reasonable level where at least these players look undervalued. I'm not saying the league winners. And then I've got one more tight end and this one who people who've watched my content have probably heard me talk about quite a bit but Sam la Porter at round seven really undervalued to me because he averaged what seven Fantasy points per game through seven weeks last year, but it seemed quite clear that he'd been playing through injuries. He dealt with a little bit during training camp, and then from week eight onwards he was averaging thirteen point two points per game. I mean, when back if you were talking about wide receivers, that wouldn't be remotely interesting. But when we're talking about tight ends, that's really solid production. And while touchdown regression was always coming through him last year after his incredible rookie season with nine touchdowns, it just doesn't take very much to swing back in your favor at the time position. So yeah, I think Sam Laport is possibly around or two underdrafted for me, and I'm very comfortable drafting a lot of them.

01:12:43
Speaker 1: Love it, Tom, This was great. Let every know where they can find you, what you're working on, where they can watch your live streams, all the good stuff.

01:12:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, so written work all over at fantasypros dot com. Our Best Ball Guide is out now, lots of stuff about different roster construction strategies, my favorite ways to spread out exposure. All in there. Every Monday, myself and Andrew Erickson live on Fantasy Pro's channel, drafting, talking strategy, all that kind of good stuff. You can also catch me on the Fantasy Sanctuary, my channel with Rich and Tyler. Monday's are best ball live streams every single week. I also draft over on FFPC on there and lots of strategy videos. I've got a video coming out this week about how rookie tight Ends feel like they've been the cheak over the last two years and talking about how much I love Tyler Warren and Colson Loveland at their current prices. So very much excited to see how people feel about that, whether I'm being a little too high on them or where the people are ready to get burned potentially.

01:13:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, love it. I really appreciate your time. You guys can find me and all my stuff over on lateround dot com. Make sure you are not pre ordering, but ordering the Late Round draft guy, because that is now live. Very happy that that's live because now I can sleep a little bit and catch up on some Netflix shows, watching some squid game right now. You know that kind of stuff. So appreciate all of you guys for listening, and as always, thanks for tuning in