739: Sell Candidates

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacher. Jake Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode seven and thirty nine of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Last week on the show, I talked through a handful of dynasty by candidates for the offseason. Today, it's the opposite. I'll be looking at players that you might want to sell. Now a huge caveat with this. A lot of the players on today's lists are good football players. Just because I'm saying that you might want to trade them away doesn't mean that I believe it they're bad. It's just that versus the market, I seem to be a little bit lower on them. That's really what this is all about. So context, as usual, is very important here, and I'll do my best to provide that context. But if you want even more detail, you can always check out my dynasty rankings and tiers over on the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. Now, before I get to the sell candidates, I wanted to send another reminder about the Late Round Prospect Guy, which you can pre order right now over on Lateround dot com. In the guide I break down what goes into my running back and wide receiver prospect models. I then profile every running back and wide receiver who will be at the NFL combine, and my model spits out a pre draft percentile score for each player. Then, when the draft is over, I'll send an updated version of the guide with post draft scores and post draft breakdowns. I also have an entire section dedicated to my year two model. The year two model helps predict how well a player is going to perform in year two and year three of his NFL career. So I profile all relevant running backs and wide receivers from last year's draft class and let you know what to do with them in Dynasty. You can pre order it right now on lateround dot com for just eleven ninety nine. It's a PDF that will get email to you when it launches on March thirteenth, and once March thirteenth hits, that price will rise to fourteen ninety nine. So again, head to lateround dot com and get ready for another fun prospect season. I'm just gonna get a controversial one out of the way first. TJ Hockinson. Yes, I think TJ Hockinson is a sell candidate. I definitely don't think Hokinson is a bad player, but I do think we're seeing an inflated average draft position because of his move to Minnesota, and I'm not convinced we're going to see the same TJ. Hockinson in twenty twenty two moving forward. One of the things that I try to preach all the time is that talent drives opportunity, and in dynasty, situation changes. So we don't want to sole the invest in situation. We want to invest in talent in the player. TJ. Hockinson's last game with the Lions was October thirtieth. In October this past year, according to Dynasty League Football, Hockinson was the tight end eight and he was being drafted ninety third overall. That's when he was with Detroit in November, so this ADP reflects the team change. His ADP was tight end six and eighty third overall. Okay, so it jumped ten spots in ADP, and he was able to leap frog a couple of tight ends, but it was reasonable. It was a reasonable jump. After December, Hockinson's ADP was tight end four and he was being drafted fifty fifth overall, it was a massive jump, and he's around that same point here in January and over on keep trade cut the market likes him even more. Ask yourself, though, what changed? Why did Hawkinson see such a spike and ADP Well, the obvious answer is what I just said. He switched teams. Clearly, Hawkinson always had the talent, but he wasn't in a spot where that talent could be showcased. Then he went to Minnesota, and it could be I think there is some validity to that. Situation changes and talent is more important. But situation still matters, and it can tell us a lot about a player when he does indeed switch teams. The thing is, I'm not sure TJ. Hawkinson was so much better in Minnesota. Let me explain. From weeks one through eight with Detroit this past year, Hackinson averaged twelve point two PPR points per game. That was skewed by a forty point performance. But let's just look at that average twelve point two. When he moved to Minnesota. In relevant games with the Vikings, that average up by two points. So clearly he was better, right, I mean in fantasy football, yes, he was better, but Hawkinson actually averaged a higher yards per route run rate in Detroit than he did in Minnesota this past year. In the regular season, the difference between those two numbers was actually pretty dramatic. It was one point eight to seven in Detroit and one point three to eight in Minnesota. If you added in the playoff game, it does look a little bit better, but his yards per route run rate in Detroit was still about point two toy five yards better. I think there's this idea out there that TJ. Hawkinson absolutely dominated in Minnesota, but he really didn't. I mean, he certainly wasn't bad. I not trying to say that, but his regular season yards per game averages were pretty similar from Detroit to Minnesota. He had some monster games that twisted those numbers a bit, but the yards per game tallies weren't dramatically different. The reason he was so much better in Minnesota was volume. He was getting a lot of points off of catches. With the Vikings, Hawkinson averaged a target chhare per game rate of almost twenty four percent. That was closer to eighteen percent in Detroit, so he was seeing more targets. He was averaging three more targets per game in Minnesota versus Detroit. The fact that he didn't have dramatically better receiving output compared to Detroit could honestly be viewed as a problem, not a good thing, because what happens if the volume isn't as high. Now, it's true that volume goes to good players, but the Vikings were seriously lacking outside of Justin Jefferson last year. And let's face it, tight ends don't sustain twenty four percent target chairs. We've averaged fewer than one and a half tight end seasons per year since twenty eleven where the tight end averages a twenty four percent target chair per game or better. And of all of those seasons since twenty eleven, five of them came from Travis Kelcey and four of them came from Mark Andrews. It just isn't easy sustaining that high of a target chair tight end unless you're a superior player at that position, like one of the best in the league and no offense at TJ Hawkinson. But he's not that, at least not yet. Dilkinson's best season in yards per route run over his career is one point six, which is what he had this past year. Travis Kelcey's worst season is one point eighty three, Mark Andrews one point nine to five. George Kittle was below that one point six number just once, and it was his rookie year. Dallas Goddard has never been below that during his four years in the league. Pat Fryarmuth, in a much worse situation, was above that mark in twenty twenty two. Just to reiterate, this isn't to say that TJ. Hockinson is bad. It's just to say that if you're gonna elevate him above someone like George Kittle, which is what's happening on some sites, and well above Dallas Goddard and well above Pat Fryarmuth, what's the basis. The basis seems to be purely volume, and that volume is likely not very sustainable. So to me, Hawkinson is overvalued. I would rather take on someone like Goddard or Friarmuth and get more with them, because while he's good, and while he can hopefully get even better in that Minnesota offense next year, it seems like people have really inflated that situation an opportunity. One of the things that I think the fantasy community still gets wrong. Is this idea that a young player shouldn't have a higher ADP in redraft versus dynasty. Take Gabe Davis from last season as a perfect example. I wasn't aggressively getting him in redraft because his ADP was rising, especially in August. But I didn't think he was a horrible pick. He was the right kind of risk reward player if you could get him in like the late fourth, early fifth round. But I wasn't into acquiring him in dynasty. And I heard about it from people listeners asking me how I could be okay with him in redraft but not in dynasty when he's a younger player. And the answer to that is investment. You can win your redraft league very easily if your fifth round pick doesn't pan out, but when you're sending future rookie picks and valuable players in dynasty, it's harder to come back from that. It's a bigger deal. And that's where I was with Gabe Davis last year. This year, I think he's just a general cell everywhere. I don't understand what people are really expecting at this point. Davis had everything this past year. He had the situation, the high powered offense, the pass heavy offense, the quarterback, and he scored eleven point four PPR points per game finishing the season as a wide receiver, for Davis saw just an eighteen point six percent target share per game rate in an offense that quite literally didn't have a number two receiver. And now the Bills are candidates to try to upgrade that position this offseason, which would hurt Gabe Davis even more. And you're still gonna take Davis in the top forty wide receivers in Dynasty, above Keenan Allen, Elijah Moore, Wandel Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Lockett. I mean even Jacobe Myers, because that's where Davis is at on keeptrade cut dot com, and he's in a similar spot according to Dynasty League Football's AADP. It's honestly surprising that you can still get this much for Gabriel Davis after such a disappointing twenty twenty two season. I think it's an example of falling in love with youth without looking at the greater picture, especially consider there's a decent chance that Bills makes some moves at wide receiver this offseason, So now's the time to sell, even if it means taking on an older asset. I don't think Davis is bad per se, but there are a lot of good wide receivers being selected after him these days. I've got another pretty controversial take here. I think Kenneth Walker might be a cell in Dynasty. You could argue that right now today is Walker's high point. I know that sounds crazy, and I definitely know that it's a risky move to make. He's only played one year in the league, and in that year he almost won Rookie of the Year. But if you look at the market, Walker is consensus RB three, maybe sometimes RB four in Fantasy football. I personally have him at RB five, so I'm not that far off positionally, but that doesn't mean that I think he's a good investment. Let's just look at Walker the player first. According to my prospect model, he was the second best running back in last year's class, behind Breese Hall. He was a ninety third percentile running back. After his rookie season, He's a ninety fourth percentile guy in the year two model. It's honestly lower than I expected to be. I thought he would be over that ninety fifth percentile mark. But then I dug into things and I think it makes sense. First off, when he finally got the nod in that backfield, he averages seven and a half percent target chare per game rate. Across the season, he had just three games with more than ten percent of Seattle's targets. If you remember a big question mark about Kenneth Walker's profile entering the league centered around his receiving numbers, I think a lot of people misinterpreted what that all meant. Though a bad receiving profile doesn't mean a running back is incapable of catching passes. Good receiving numbers in college they get signal because it shows that their team is trying to get them the ball. In many ways, they're trying to get them the ball as much as possible. Bad receiving profiles rarely turned into great receiving profiles at the NFL level, but Walker being a ten percent target chair guy in the NFL is definitely in his range of outcomes. With that being said, his year one didn't really tell me he's going to be someone that's going to get to that thirteen fourteen to fifteen percent target share range. Walker is an incredibly exciting player, but he's also a home run guy. Among forty one running backs with one hundred and more carries this past year, Walker ranked dead last and percentage of carries that went zero or fewer yards. He was in the bottom ten when looking at running backs who gained two or fewer yards that resulted in a success rate according to Number five's expected points formula, that was dead last in the league. Among these running backs, he had a success rate of thirty five percent this past year. Now, I will say his RB three ranking within the market, it actually still makes sense despite all of this, But it makes some sense because the running back market is an absolute disaster. There's not a whole lot of clarity. And the fear is that because of the lack of clarity, when we get this new running back class in there, there's absolutely going to be more competition around the league, thus a greater potential to push Walker down. Like, just to be transparent, I think Walker had sort of an overrated rookie season. Not that he wasn't electric. It's not that he lacks that big play upside. It's just that he just received the most first place votes for offensive rookie of the year, and he did that when you have multiple wide receivers who dominated a more important and difficult position. And while that's a real football related take, it still translates to fantasy. If you look at overall rankings over on Keep Trade Cut, Walker's going twelfth overall in single quarterback startups before Chris Olave, who I believe not only had the more impressive rookie season, but he's the better asset in fantasy. So this isn't to say that Walker's egregiously priced within his position. It's just the way things are running back here in February. But that can change quick with this draft class. And it's not like you have to trade Walker for a running back. There are other options out there at other positions. But even if you want to trade him for another running back, you can get DeAndre Swift, a player that I talked about on last week's episode, and you can get DeAndre Swift and a lot more. I take a package over Walker right now because I don't think the drop is as significant as what the market is showing. He's an amazingly fun player, He's got a lot of juice. He's going to be around for a while. But I do believe he wasn't as good as people believe. In twenty twenty two, I find Jared Goff's average draft position kind of crazy over on keep Trade Cut. It's QB sixteen. My friends at Dynasty League Football have met QB twenty two, so they're a little bit lower on him. I've actually got him a little bit lower than that. So clearly I'm just lower than the market on him. And one key reason as to why is pretty simple, where's the upside? I don't mind Goff, and I do think this is a slightly different recommendation and two quarterback leagues because in superflex, a player who lacks a ceiling in fantasy football is still viable. In single quarterback leagues, I'm going for upside only, I'm going for that ceiling. I'm striving for a player who can give me a Patrick Mahomes or a Jalen Hurts or a Josh Allen type season. And I can say pretty confidently that we're not going to get that out of Jared Goff. Since twenty eleven, and we've had over sixty quarterback seasons where the quarterback averaged twenty or more standard Fantasy points per game. Eighty three percent of those seasons saw the quarterback average one or more points per game with his rushing statistics. Moreover, of the quarterbacks who weren't mobile but still did some serious work in fantasy by scoring twenty points, their average touchdown rate was six and a half percent, which is well above the league average. So they're doing some crazy things throwing touchdowns, and it's also well above anything that Jared Goff has ever done in the league. Not only has GoF done even had a twenty point per game season, but he's typically not getting it done on the ground in fantasy. He's failed to reach one point per game with his rushing numbers in three of seven seasons, and like I said, he's yet to give us one of those special touchdown rate seasons, the season that you need from a less mobile quarterback in order for him to be relevant in fantasy. Are we expecting things to just completely turn around in year eight and beyond now? I agree that the situation for GoF is absolutely amazing. I think he at least has a chance to give you low end QB one numbers if he's starting in Detroit next year. It's not an amazing chance, but it's in his range of outcomes, but I can't imagine drafting him at QB sixteen when he's proven to just simply be solid and we don't even know how much longer he's gonna hold that starting job. This isn't a scenario where we know for a fact that Jared Goff will be the starter there for the next five or seven years. The situation is great, but the performance has not been good enough for me to back an eighth year quarterback who would need to take his game to the next level to be a true difference maker in single quarterback fantasy. The more I've dug into things, the more I'm worried about George Pickens versus market value. My last Dynasty rankings update actually had Pickens around that market value, just to be clear, maybe slightly below. But Pickens is a very controversial player right now, with a super wide valuation range. Some people see him as a cornerstone piece of their roster, Others see him as an obvious cell. Admittedly, I'm not so far in the side of he's definitely a cell because some of his underlying metrics can't be He somewhat explained by a really mediocre passing attack during twenty twenty two. But the reason I'm bringing him up today is because there are serious truthers out there, and if one of those truthers is in your league, you might be able to cash in. Pickens had a fifteen and a half percent target share per game rate in twenty twenty two. That number ranked sixtieth among rookie wide receivers since twenty eleven who played eight or more games. In other words, we typically see five or six rookie wide receivers hit that mark every season. It's not some exceptionally special target share, but some people see Pickens as an exceptionally good player. He also had a pretty mediocre yards per route run rate. Among the nine rookie wide receivers in twenty twenty two with fifty or more targets, only Romeo Dobbs and Alec Pierce had worse yards per route run rates than George Pickens, and among that same group, Pickens was dead last in targets per route run. But we had a good class last year. Let's give this a little historical context. Since twenty eleven, we've seen well over three hundred rookie wide receivers failed to hit a seven teen percent target chair per game rate while hitting under a one and a half yards per route run rate. Pickens was a good bit lower than those filters. He had a fifteen and a half percent target share per game and a one point three to eight yards per route run rate. So I'm not filtering this to where George Pickens is at because that would make him the best rookie in this sample. He's not the best rookie according to these two metrics. Within this sample, other rookie wideouts were better. Guess how many of those rookie wide receivers have given us just one season with more than sixteen PPO points per game. Just for some context, sixteen ppero points per game is usually a high end wide receiver, two, low end wide receiver. One. It's a good season, but it's not an elite season. So we have over three hundred rookie wide receivers in this sample. This is a sample of rookies who hit a seventeen percent target share per game rate and a one and a half yards per route run rate. Only three of those wide receivers were able to hit that sixteen ppuro point per game mark. Those wideouts were Devonte Adams, who started his career off really poorly, DeAndre Hopkins, and al Seon Jeffrey. Now, the good news is that those wide receivers at least profile semi similarly to George Pickens. It's not like they're all slot guys. But each player, also scored, is a better prospect than Pickens in my prospect model. Here's my thing with Pickens. I think that he might be slightly overrated as a player because of his circus catches. We know he can make these awesome, awesome grabs. It's honestly a little bit like Kenneth Walker. But I don't think that he should be ranked as like a wide receiver three or anything like that. Like I don't have him at wide receiver thirty five. It's more so that I think a player like Christian Watson is currently a better bet for the future, and he's almost always going after George Pickens in startup drafts or I think that you could just take George Pickens and flip him into Marquise Brown plus or something along those lines and still not really miss out a massive production at that wide receiver spot. The odds that Pickens is good they're pretty strong. I think he's gonna have a good career. The odds that he's elite is where I have some problems, and some people are willing to pay that elite price. That's why I think it's worth seeing if you can sell really high. Now, just like last week, this isn't exactly the way that I trade. I mean, if you have those players, I definitely see what kind of deal that I could get done, because I do think that those players are overvalued in general by dynasty managers. But at the same time, none of the players that I mentioned today are bad for fantasy purposes. Some are really good, some are really really good. Some of them I would love to have on my team, and there are more players that I'd look to trade away this offseason too. It doesn't just end with the handful that I talked about today. I just wanted to give you a variety and explain the process and reasoning as to why, because understanding that process might be able to help you with other players that are on your roster. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at late Round QB. Remember to check out late round dot com pre order that prospect guide. Otherwise, appreciate you guys listening. I'll talk to you later in the week.