297: 15 Transactions for Week 7

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the labor of podcast with your host JJ zacher Resa Jake zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen, the editor in chief at FanDuel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode two hundred and ninety seven of the Late Round podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I mentioned this on Twitter yesterday, but I really don't remember a fantasy football season where I had these dominant teams, I mean just undefeated, steamrolling teams weighed with these completely underwhelming ones. But then at the same time, when I look at the rosters of those two types of teams, the dominant ones and the ones that could use some help scoring, I don't even feel like the dominant ones are that much better. Like, sure, my Christian McCaffrey teams are rolling, and my Chris Godwin teams are looking pretty good too, and the one with both of them is absolutely crushing. But I've got teams with like Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans, and Alvin Kamara, and I'm not in a hurry to sell those guys. But those teams also just have two or three wins. So I guess I'm saying this because if you feel the same way, you're not alone. There are some annoying things happening this season. We just have to hope that math and logic ends up winning at the end of the year, and it almost always does. Before we get into this week's transactions, I just wanted to send another reminder about odds Fire. I use odds Fire each week when I'm doing my research because it's the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers and the regulated US market. You can compare odds quickly, identify the best value, and even examine first party FanDuel data all in one place. It's a great way to see line movement and where bets are being placed. Check it out now on oddsfire dot com. Gambling problem called one eight hundred Gambler by DeAndre Hopkins. So DeAndre Hopkins a first round draft pick. He hasn't lived up to expectation, but I don't think it's been all that bad, especially as bad as some people are making it out to be. He still ranks twenty fifth and PP points per game. He's seen at least twenty percent of Houston's targets in every contest this year, and he's playing with one of the best quarterbacks in football. His twenty eight point one percent target share is third highest among NFL wide receivers. Things should eventually even out if a player is consistently seeing that type of volume, let alone a player of DeAndre Hopkins caliber, they'll see results regardless of schedule. And I think there is some good news with Hopkins that he's improved over the last two weeks from a production standpoint, Week five against the Falcons, he was wide receiver seventeen. This past week, even though he was disappointing, he was a top twenty five wide out because remember from weeks two through four he saw Jalen Ramsey, Casey Hayward, and James Bradbury. If there's one piece of downside with Hopkins right now, it's been his red zone usage, specifically the number of targets that he's seen within the ten yard line. He's only seen one. He led the NFL last season with fifteen of those targets. That's a little bit worrisome. But if we look at the larger sample size here, the larger sample size tells us that he's going to be targeted more than he's been being targeted right now in that area of the field. That is, if you don't think that that's gonna happen, then he's more of a hold. If you don't think that his red zone news is gonna uptick, if you don't think he's gonna score more touchdowns, he's a hold for you. But to me, I think he's a by candidate for all of these obvious reasons. Sell Terry McLaurin. I took the L for Terry McLaurin earlier this season. I didn't love him as a prospect. I thought he was fine. I thought he was like a late second round or early third rounder in rookie drafts. But if we were to redraft right now, he would easily be a first round pick in rookie drafts. But I think that he's a cell candidate. He's coming off a big performance against Miami, which means you're selling him high to some degree, and he's also overperforming in the touchdown column to start the year. Over the last five seasons, wide receivers have scored a touchdown for every one hundred and sixty four yards receiving, as I talk about on this show each and every week, touchdowns correlate pretty strongly to yards. The more yards a player has, the more touchdowns he's generally going to score. McLaurin now has five touchdowns this year. That's about double the number that he should have based on his yardage total, and that's in a bad offense. So there's the touchdown regression. But then there's the upcoming schedule as well. Washington gets the forty nine ers defense in Week seven and then they get the Vikings and the Bills on the road. So not only is touchdown regression likely to hit Terry McLaurin, but this schedule doesn't set up well. So as awesome as a story that he is this year, I think he's a sell hold. Jared Goff. Jared Goff's now thrown three or more touchdowns in a single game just once over his last fourteen contests. When you include the playoffs and on the season, he now has three top twelve performances, which is fine, but then he has three where he finished QB twenty three or worse. He's a headache and you might be inclined to drop him in a one quarterback league right now. Because on Sunday he threw for seventy eight yards. But don't do it, not yet, at least because the Rams get the Falcons in Week seven, who are allowing the third most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and since Kean O'Neal went down for it, they've given up three top five quarterback performances in three games while allowing three point seven passing touchdowns per contest. And it doesn't hurt that the Rams get Cincinnati the week after, so you might get two good weeks out of Jared Goff and after that, sure you can probably drop him, but don't do it right now. Sell Damian Williams, I have no idea how the Chiefs are going to use their running backs entering every week. I have no clue. I don't want any part of this mess. Damian Williams saw ninety percent of Kansas City's running back carries two weeks ago and over ten percent of the team's targets. In Week six. He ended up with an eleven point one percent running back rush share and a two point nine percent target share. He was barely used, considering he was able to find the end zone, though you might be able to sell high in some way. As good as this backfield can be for fantasy purposes, it's really hard to buy into one of these running backs right now. By Josh Allen. So last week on this show, I talked about John Brown and buying John Brown as the Bills entered their bye week, because the team's upcoming schedule coming out of this bye is amazing. Buffalo gets Miami, Philadelphia, Washington, and Cleveland and then Miami once again, each of those teams ranking the bottom half of the league and fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position, with four of those matchups coming against teams at rank in the bottom ten. I generally don't trade for a quarterback, and Josh Allen might just be on your waiver wire. But I generally don't trade for a quarterback. But if you can send a bench asset for Josh Allen right now, and if you really really need a quarterback, it's not a bad idea. By Devin Singletary. So there's a theme on this week's show where I'm sort of getting guys who I can stash who might be league winners later in the season. I usually hate the term league winner, but it's an easy way to just capture how I feel about these guys. They're players with a lot of potential who could really break out later in the season, and I categorize Devin Singletary as that type of player. He was really close to playing in Week five, and I'm assuming since Buffalo had their bye last week, they just waited until this week. I do think he's gonna be back this week, and that all creates an interesting by low opportunity. I just mentioned that the Bills have a really easy schedule over the next month plus, and our two game sample with Devin Singletary this season is kind of intriguing. He had a seventy percent snap share in Week one and then a thirty three percent one in Week two. But in that Week two game, he left in the middle of the fourth quarter with a hammy injury, and he's been sidelined since. His rushing usage was kind of weird. In Week one, he saw all these snaps, but Frank Gore was the one who's getting the carries. But Singletary saw a seventeen percent target share in that Week one contest, and that high snap rate that he had is a good indicator of a stronger workload in the future. So basically, what I'm saying is you're buying Singletary right now because he's likely pretty cheap. That's first and foremost. He's also already had his buy and we know the schedule is great and there's not a whole lot in the way for him to see more work, to see a heavy workload. I think he's the right type of buy right now, and he could pay off as you inch towards the fans as he playoffs, sell or hold the Cleveland Brown's passing attack. Yeah. So this recommendation might seem a little late to some of you, and maybe you're thinking that things can't get much worse for Cleveland's passing attack, but I do think that it can now. I will say one thing that does scare me about selling off the Browns aerial attack is that Baker Mayfield has severely underperformed in the touchdown column this year. And it's not just because of bad play either. It's because he's been unlucky. Based on his near fifteen hundred passing yards, he should have well over nine touchdowns this season. He currently has five. That's the largest discrepancy that you will find in the NFL. Now in most cases I would buy a situation like that, but Cleveland's entering their bye week this week, and coming out of the bye, they get New England on the road, then the Broncos in Denver, then they get Buffalo, and then they'll wrap things up with a divisional game in Cleveland against a good Pittsburgh defense. If you have an average team or if you really need a win, you'll want to sell the Cleveland Browns before their bye, So this is the week to do it. Now. With that being said, I did say hold the Cleveland Browns passing attack as well, because they get Miami, Cincinnati, and Arizona down the stretch and into the fantasy playoffs, so they could realistically pay off later in the season, and I want that to be known for teams who can afford to take that on right now. Ad oudentate so tit is rostered in just twenty three percent of Yahoo leagues, and he looks great in Week six. He's seen at least sixteen percent of Cincinnati's targets in each of the last four games, including a near thirty two percent target share on Sunday against Baltimore. Yeah, AJ Green is going to be back eventually, But Oudentate's not a bad ad right now. Hold DJ Shark, now, I'll be honest. DJ Shark is one of the bigger touchdown regression candidates in football. Right now. He's scored five times, but given his yardage total, that numbers should be closer to three. But just because a player is bound to regress scoring wise, doesn't mean that that player should automatically be traded away. If the peripheral numbers look good, you want to keep that player. And that's the case with DJ Shark. Since Week one, he's fallen below a twenty five percent target share in just one contest. He now accounts for over twenty two percent of Jacksonville's targets this year, and the Jags have a decent schedule for the passing game over the next few weeks. They get the Bengals, the Jets, and the Texans. So he's not a player that I would target in a trade because there is some regression heading his way. But even with that regression, I wouldn't send him away either. By DJ Moore, So let's talk about another DJ, and that's DJ Moore. He just can't seem to find the end zone. He should have two point six touchdowns right now, according to his four hundred and twenty five receiving yards, but he scored only once a season and more has been more involved in the Carolina passing attack of late. After seeing about eleven percent of the Panthers targets during Kyle Allen's first two starts, and remember I talked about this on my ten Trend show a few weeks ago. But after seeing that type of target share, the last two games have seen more with a twenty six point seven percent share and a thirty two point three percent one. So I think we can finally feel confident that whoever's under center, DJ Moore should be fine. And DJ Moore is a positive regression candidate, and he's on a by right now, which means you might be able to get him for cheap. Add Jamal Williams. This transaction was gonna be all about Mark Walton. I actually recorded something about Walton and for you guys to add him, so there's a bonus transaction for you. But then Jamal Williams happened last night and he's in a much better situation than Mark Walton is. But on Monday night, after Aaron Jones fumbled and then dropped a touchdown. Jamal Williams saw the field more against the Lions. He had three more snaps than Aaron Jones and he outrushed him fourteen to eleven. So not only could Jamal Williams just have some standalone value moving forward, but if something happens to Aaron Jones from an injury perspective, all of a sudden, Jamal Williams is a fringe RB one, so he should definitely be added off the waiver wire this week. Sell Miles Sanders. I want Miles Sanders to be a thing I really do, And as great as it was to see him do what he did through the air this past week, we've got to be realistic. The peripheral numbers were not that great for Miles Sanders against the Vikings. He played just twenty nine percent of the Eagles offensive snaps. Jordan Howard was on the field for sixty three percent of them. In a negative game script where you think it would favor Miles Sanders more than Jordan Howard. That was Sanders' lowest snap rate of the season, and as a result, he saw just fifteen percent of Philly's rushes in a little over seven percent of the team's targets. The production didn't really match the snap rate in the usage. That's why he's a perfect cell candidate. This week, add Darryl Henderson again. I'm looking for stashes right now. Things can change so quickly in fantasy football, and I think that Darryl Henderson makes sense as a really good stash. Todd Gurley missed Week six with a thigh bruise, and there was a report on Sunday that said that there was a chance that he plays in Week seven, a chance. We've been through this with Todd Gurley before. Darryl Henderson. On Sunday he played about one third of la snaps and I think that you could argue pretty easily that he was the better running back between he and Malcolm Brown. And Henderson was someone that my prospect model liked quite a bit. He was one of the most efficient running backs in college football history. I think he's the perfect flyer for your bench right now. And if Todd Gurley comes back, and if Daryl Henderson gets put back on the bench, it's fine. It was a worthwhile speculative ad by Jamison crowder So a couple weeks ago on this podcast it was a ten Trends episode. I mentioned the statistic that placed Jamison Crowder with pretty elite company at the time, and this was heading into Week five. But at the time, only six wide receivers had seen a twenty percent target share are Better and all four games played this year. Jamison Crowder didn't qualify because he already had a buye, but through three games he had hit that mark in every single contest. Now, he had a down game in Week five, but in Week six, it wasn't a down game. Crowder saw twenty nine percent of the Jets targets in a game that Sam Darnold returned. He now has almost a twenty seven percent target share for the Jets this season. That's the sixth highest market wide receiver and he hasn't found the end zone yet. I know you guys are probably sick of me talking about this, but based on his receiving yardage showtal Crowder should have one point seven touchdowns this year, So this makes it a by low moment for Crowder. Add the Kansas City Chiefs defense, It's really hard to find a defense that has low ownership in fantasy football right now, Defenses are being rostered all over the place. Now that being said, I don't mind the Chiefs who are going to Denver on Thursday night. The Broncos rank in the bottom half of the league in sack rate allowed, they're eleventh worst than yards per play, They're twenty third in points scored, and Kansas City's a three and a half point road favorite. There are other defenses that I like more, but I think Kansas City is fine. The sixteenth transaction that you can't get in my weekly fifteen Transactions caluhm over on number five this week is to add Nakil Harry. It sounds like Harry's go I want to be practicing this week and he's on track to play when he's eligible in Week nine. And for a team that's had some injuries at wide receiver, this is good news. He has a chance to walk into some volume. Maybe not right away, but he could play into a heavier workload as we reached the fantasy playoffs. This is purely a speculative ad, similar to someone like Darryl Henderson, but you'd rather be early with these guys than late. And as you guys know, Harry was the top wide out in my prospect model this year. He has a chance to be really good, so if you've got a deep enough bench, add him this week. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. If you're listening to the show on Apple Podcast, do me a favor and leave a rating and review. Thanks everyone. Talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show.