733: Week 17 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ zacheras J J. Zacher reson What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode seven hundred and thirty three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's sleeper show was better than the week fifteen one. The streaming quarterback picks were really solid. Gardner Minshew and Sam Darnold were top eight options at the position, and Brock Purty ranked as the QB thirteen, So overall, I'm happy with that. Tyler Algier continued producing, Taysom Hill and Noah Fant were fine enough tight end streamers, and Isaiah Hodgens had a monster day against the Vikings. He was the wide receiver seven last week in PPR formats. But there were some big misses too. I really thought that Marquise Goodwin was a decent play. He did absolutely nothing. DeMarcus Robinson scored, but it was his only catch of the game. Mac Collins nothing in that bad weather game against the Steelers, and the deeper tight end streamers they weren't very good either, So it wasn't a bad week, but it wasn't a top week. Hopefully I can finish on top this week because it's the final sleeper show of the season. Now, before we get into the Week seventeen sleepers, I want to let you know that the Week seventeen NFL Sunday Million is officially live on fandle. Showcase your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary captain. Follow along using Fandel's live scoring feature to compete for your share of one million dollars in cash prizes, including a cool two hundred thousand dollars first place prize, all for just five dollars. Sunday is approaching quickly, so head to Fandel and submit your lineups today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandel dot com or download the Fandel Lap for more details. This first tier consists of players who are rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. And I'll begin with my favorite quarterback streamer of the week. That's Brock Party. I talked about Perty on the fifteen Transaction Show this week, and while there is some regression coming his way statistically, it's not like he's playing poorly and it's not like he has bad weapons and it's not like he's not facing the second best matchup for quarterbacks and adjustin points allowed this week, the forty nine Ers get the Raiders. Vegas has been very kind to quarterbacks all season long, with an imply team total above twenty five points. Party's a safe option to at least give you some sort of a floor this week, which is sort of what he's done since he took over that job. Now, another guy I mentioned on that fifteen Transaction show is Gardner Minshew. He works as well. I do have a little worry that we won't see the same back and forth action that we saw last week in Dallas, but Minshew still works. He had the sixth highest average up the target last week across the NFL, and on paper, New Orleans is a top half matchup for quarterbacks. Like I said, though, I don't know if the same ceiling is gonna be there in this matchup. The Saints can't move the ball like the Cowboys can, and they actually have allowed the lowest completion rate on fifteen plus air yard throws this year, so it may be more difficult for the Eagles to generate big plays down the field. Regardless, Philly has a good imply team total, So if Minshew does end up starting again this week, he should be fine. And then Mike White is back too, and I think that he works as a streamer. The Jets have a reasonable imply team total according to FANDLS Sportsbook at twenty two and a half, Seattle's the eleventh best matchup for quarterbacks, and justin fantasy points allowed, they've been a defense that's allowed only maybe one monster performance this year, which was Jared Goff back in Week four, but quarterbacks are consistently scoring seventeen eighteen fantasy points on them, and White himself has been fine as a starter, especially in plus matchups. During his first two starts of the season, he faced the Bears and the Vikings. He was a top ten quarterback in both of those matchups. He only scored eleven fantasy points against Buffalo, but that's a much tougher matchup than the one that he'll see this weekend. So if you want to go with Mike White, that makes plenty of sense. Zach Moss is still well below that fifty percent threshold and he's been seeing pretty good usage in that Colts offense. We didn't know how they did up that backfield entering Week sixteen, but Moss played seventy percent of the team's offensive snaps and he handled a really high ninety two percent of the team's running back rushes. He only had a four percent target chair, but he ran by far the most routes among Colts running backs. And keep in mind that was in a game where Indy largely faced a negative game script. They were in thirty one offensive plays while trailing in twenty one plays while trailing by ten or more points. They get the Giants this week, It's a totally average matchup on paper. Moss is seeing volume and that should be good enough to be a potential flex play. Now, before I talk about this next guy, I've got to take a giant l A couple of weeks ago, in the fifteen Transactions episode, I talked about dropping Deontay Forman in shallower leagues. They were coming off a terrible game against Pittsburgh and the Panthers had the Lions and Buccaneers up next, two teams that can stop the run. But the Panthers committed to the run once again. They absolutely destroyed Detroit on the ground in Week sixteen, so it was bad advice. From me, and I don't hide when I'm wrong. I was wrong. That should have never been a transaction, even if it was focused on more shallower leagues. With that being said, Foreman's teammate got it done last week too, Chopa Hubbard saw just thirty three percent of the team's running back rushes, but he ran the ball twelve times for one hundred and twenty five yards. Now, the annoying part about his Week sixteen was that he failed to see a target. In his two games prior, Hubbard had a fifteen percent and sixteen percent target chhair. Hopefully we see a little bit more of that this week. The Buccaneers are not an easy matchup, but the Panthers are running the ball really, really well under Steve Wilkes, and that's more important than the matchup itself. So Hubbard's definitely a sleeper. I'm not sure you're going to have to dig this deep in a championship matchup. But even though Khalil Herbert didn't do that much in his return this past week, there are some peripheral numbers that were encouraging. First off, he only saw twenty seven percent of the team's running back rushes. That number had been closer to fifty percent before his injury, so that's not great, but it was also his first game back. Herbert. Actually he played forty one percent of Chicago's offensive snaps and he only ran seven fewer routes than David Montgomery. That ended up resulting in a twelve percent target chair. Now the Bears get the Lions in again with the highest over under this week on Fandal Sportsbook, so it's a great environment for a player who had better secondary numbers than people probably realized last week. Not Wide receiver Johan Dotson has been lighting it up. He's another player I talked about on Tuesdays show, but man, he's been crushing. He's been a top eighteen wide receiver and weekly scoring in each of his last three and he's seen target shairs of twenty two and a half percent, twenty two point two percent, and twenty six point five percent during this time. I'm not overly concerned about this switch from Taylor Heineke to Carson Wentz. Dotson was doing fine with Wentz to start the year, and that's usually a part of a rookie wide receiver season where there's less production. If anything, the scarier splits are with Terry McLaurin. But yeah, Dotson's numbers are so strong right now that you have to consider him in Week seventeen, even if the matchup is not perfect. I will say though wide receiver is pretty tough this week. It's hard to find decent enough wide receivers off the waiver wire to use in your championship matchup. But Russell Gage has seen eighteen targets over his last two games. He had a twelve and a half percent target share this past week. That's not great, but it was over twenty eight percent the week prior, and he's playing more than twice as many snaps as Julio Jones. The Panthers are a top five matchup for wide receivers and justin Fantasy points allowed, so he at least makes a little bit of sense now. At the time of this recording, I'm not sure if Christian Watson's gonna play this week or not. If he doesn't, then Romeo Dobbs is a really strong play against the Vikings. He played as the number two wide receiver after Watson went down last week, and he's now seen an eighteen percent and sixteen percent target share over his last two the two games he's played since returning from injury. Minnesota secondary has been torched this year. They're a top matchup for wide receivers and justin fantasy points allowed, and green Bay is currently sitting with an implied team total very close to twenty five points. Is a really good option if Watson can't go. If Watson does go, I still think there's an opportunity for Dobbs to have a good day now. At tight end, Greg Dolziic saw a twenty three and a half percent target chair last week. Over his last four, he's seen target sharers of thirty eight percent, nineteen percent, eight percent, and then last week at twenty four percent. The last time the Broncos faced the Chiefs, Dolsicic walked away with eight targets and seven point two PPR points and what should be a negative games rip for Denver. Once again, he's a pretty good play. And then Tyler Conklin could work this week as well. He's facing the absolute best matchup in football and adjustin fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and while he's only seen target shairs of six percent and thirteen percent over his last two in Mike White's starts. Conkland's target hairs have been eleven percent, thirteen percent, and eighteen percent. You won a target tight ends against Seattle, and this week it's Tyler Conklin's turn. Now we'll move on to players who are rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. So these are your deep sleepers of the week. And I'm gonna start this off with a little trivia question. Since week twelve, do you know which quarterback among relevant starters leads the NFL in yards per attempt? I'll give you a second. It's Sam freaking Donald. Since Darnald returned to action, he's been really, really efficient. The Panthers have been great running the football, but Darnald's been good through the air, and he's averaging just about sixteen Fantasy points per game. Do I love him this week? No, not totally. The Buccaneers are an average to below average matchup and this game has a sub forty point over under. I would play the three other quarterbacks that I talked about earlier over Darnald this week, but for a sub ten percent roster quarterback, he's not the worst play in the world. Joshua Kelly's been seeing work in this Chargers offense. He's talled nineteen carries over his last two games and he's seen three targets too. His running back rush are over his last two is close to forty percent. This week, the Chargers are six and a half point favorites against the Rams if they hit a positive game script. Don't be so price to see Kelley get more work, especially since the Chargers have locked up a wild card spot. They can move up and down a spot, but they may want to take it easy on a player like Austin Eckler, so I think Kelly could see a decent amount of work this week. Royce Freeman is still barely rostered across all fantasy formats, and I get it, He's probably not going to be this league winner this week, but he's seen eleven and sixteen carries over his last two games, and he saw a snapshare rise to fifty seven percent this past week. Now he gets an average matchup against Jacksonville, so I think he's a high floor, low ceiling option here in Week seventeen. Now, I'm not very optimistic about it, but you could look at Rashid Shaheed. This week, He's played about thirty percent of his snaps from the slot this year, and the slot is generally how wide receivers win. Against Philadelphia, the Eagles have actually seen the lowest percentage of targets go to perimeter wide receivers this season. They're also a bottom half defense for wide receivers and the justin fantasy points allowed. It's just that Shahied could see some volume if the Saints hit a negative game script. He had a thirty six percent target this past week without Chris Alave in the mix, and it was twenty one percent the week prior, so Shaheed could be the guy once again. Isaiah Hodgens is also still rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues. His matchup against the Colts isn't nearly as good as his matchup last week against the Vikings, but Hodgens is averaging a twenty percent target chair per game over his last four and he's coming off last week's game where he had a twenty seven percent target chair. It's hard to find that volume in this group of players. And then the only tight end that I've gotten this tier is on that same team. It's Daniel Bellinger. I know I've talked about Bellinger a lot on this show. But when we're talking lower tiered tight ends, we're looking for general participation, and Bellinger has that he ran the most routes of tight end last week across the entire league. He gets a below average matchup this week against the Colts, but he at least has a shot to see some volume. But I will say I'd rather play Greg Dolsich or Tyler Conklin over Bellinger this week. Now at defense here in Week seventeen, you could go with the Chargers against the Rams. I know the Rams had a good outing last week, but in their two other games with Baker Mayfield, the Packers and Raiders were fine defenses for fantasy purposes. The Chargers are big favorites in the game with a low over under, and they've played well defensively of late two, so they work. I also don't mind Miami against New England, though I think that's sort of a deeper play. And I like Jacksonville against Houston too, And I talked about Detroit against Chicago on the fifteen Transaction Show. But then there's the Giants. I really like the Giants this week against Nick Foles. We saw how bad the Colts were offensively in Week sixteen, and the Giants have one of the top pressure rates in the league, so I think it could be a long day for the Colts offense. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. It over to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Before I go, I want to just thank everyone who is along for the ride this year. I truly truly love doing this my job as an analyst, this show, and I hope that you were able to get something out of this podcast this season. Even if you didn't win your league's fantasy title, if your process improved, if you were able to finish higher than you usually do, if you just felt more comfortable playing fantasy football, that's a win. I won't be going anywhere this offseason. I will be taking a couple of weeks off from the show to work on some things and regroup a little bit. But I feel like off season content is almost more important than in season content. I do studies throughout the off season, I talk prospects throughout the off season, I get to sit back and dig into the fun game theory things that I love to dig into. So I'm really excited for all that, and I hope you guys are too, So thanks again for an awesome season, and go win some fantasy championships. Take care of everyone.