726: Week 15 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ Zachera, JJ Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyson in this episode seven and twenty six of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's Sleeper Show results were pretty good. Ryan Tannehill is my favorite streamer and he was decent even though it didn't look pretty. I love DJ Shark and he had a great game. Evan Ingram had a career day. Hunter Henry was a fine streamer, Chicka Konquo was great, Chuba Hubbard was a top ten running back, and Nick Westbrook, A Keene and Van Jefferson both found the end zone. Now, the other quarterback streamers outside of Tannehill, they weren't very good. Neither was Travis Homer. So there were a few misses on the show last week, but I'm definitely happy with the results overall. Week fifteen is a big week. Let's keep it rolling. Before getting the sleepers this week, I want to remind you that the Week fifteen NFL Sunday Million is officially live on FanDuel. Showcase your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap, then follow along using Fandel's live scoring feature to compete for your share of one point one million dollars in cash prizes, including a cool two hundred thousand dollars first place prize, all for just five dollars. Sunday's approaching quickly, so had to fandel and submit your lineups today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandel dot com or download the fandle app for more details. This first tier of sleepers consists of players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and I actually like some of the sleepers this week. That's not always the case. One of those guys that I like is Mike White. White faces off against a Lions team this week that ranks as the best opponent for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed. The Jets have an implied team total right now over on Fandel's sportsbook that's respectable twenty two points. And we've seen White come through with good fantasy performances in this two plus matchups so far this year, so he's my top quarterback streamer this week. I think he's a low end QB one. Now, if you're not able to get Mike White. I think Matt Ryan might be in play. I say might because I'd rather not have to rely on Matt Ryan in the Fantasy playoffs. But you can't deny this matchup. The Viking secondary has been brutal. They've allowed a QB one performance in eight of their last nine games, and the lowest ranking player during this stretch was Taylor Heineke. He was the QB fifteen back in Week nine with about fourteen Fantasy points. Now, Matt Ryan has not been aggressive at all this year for Indianapolis. He's thrown at fifteen or more air yards on fewer than eight percent of his attempts. That's the lowest in the league. So I'm concerned the Colts may not be able to take advantage of this matchup. But the matchup is there, and Indy actually has a higher implied team total this week than the Jets do, so don't sleep on Matt Ryan. Now, moving on to running back, let's go to a player I talked about not just last week, but also on the fifteen Transaction Show, and that's Chuba Hubbard. Thanks to the Panthers staying in games over their last two, they've been able to do what they want to do offensively, which is run the ball. Hubbard is averaging a thirty nine percent running back rush air per game over his last two games. That's not amazing, but he's seen thirty one carries that's really strong, and this past week hit a fifteen percent target chair. According to FANDLS Sportsbook, the Panthers are two and a half point home favorites against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's not a bad opponent for running backs, but the fact that Carolina could keep this close or even win this game means that we could see a lot of Deontay Foreman and Cheuba Hubbard. Another team that could go with a run heavy approach this week is San Francisco. Not only do they have their third string quarterback under center, but they're facing a Seattle team that's been dashed on the ground this year. Seattle ranks fifth and running back rushing yards allowed, and they've allowed the most adjusted fantasy points of the position. Now, I'm not sitting here saying go play Christian McCaffrey. He's clearly not a sleeper, but Jordan May he is. He's seen running back rush years of thirty one percent and forty four percent over the forty nine ers last two. San Francisco is a three and a half point favorite and Deebo Samuel's sidelined. That could open up more backfield work for Jordan Mason, so I wouldn't be surprised if he has a decent performance. And then the last running back in this tier are running backs I should say are the Patriot running backs Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong. Ramandre Stevenson and Damian Harris are both iffy for this weekend, and if they can't go, the Patriots are going to rely on Strong and Harris once again like they did against Arizona. Against the Cardinals, Harris was the one who saw more work on the ground, but Strong saw more work through the air. And I'm more intrigued by the receiving work considering Ramandre Stevenson has seen huge target shaars over the last month and a half in this offense. You've been playing Romandre Stevenson in fantasy football because of what he's doing as a receiver. It's a super valuable role. Vegas their opponent. They also rank eighth and adjusted target chair allowed to the running back position this year. So because of all that, I like Pierre Strong more than Kevin Harris this week, but Harris is in play two if the other running backs can't go, Vegas is a top five matchup for running backs and adjusted points allowed. Now a wide receiver, I think you can look back to the Colts. Specifically, I want to talk about Alec Pierce. Pierce is intriguing because he's the one who's seeing targets down the field in this offense. He has sixteen targets on fifteen plus air yard throws this year. That's ten more than any other Indianapolis Colt. He also drew a twenty three percent target share the last time we saw Indy. The Vikings are also very bad against perimeter wide receivers. We attack this exact same matchup last week with DJ Hark. Not only have they seen the most passing yards allowed to the outside, but they rank third highest in percentage of wide receiver targets that go to the perimeter. That's where Alec Pierce lines up. So if you want a high upside player off the waiver wire, Pierce is probably that dude Davis doesn't go this week, which is very very possible. Then I really like Elijah Moore. He not only played as the number two wide out this past week, but he'll get looks out of the slot against the Lions in Week fifteen. And no team has given up more receiving yards to slot wide receivers than Detroit this season. It took us a while for us to get here, but it could finally be Elijah Moore season. And then how about Jehan Dotson. We saw the Commanders and Giants face off two weeks ago, and in that game, Dotson caught five of nine targets for fifty four yards in a touchdown. He saw a career in season high twenty two and a half percent target share, and he most importantly saw an uptick and snap share, playing seventy nine percent of Washington's offensive snaps. The matchup is average on paper, but Dotson is trending up, so he works at tight end in this tier. You can look at Hunter Henry against the Raiders in Week fourteen. Henry ran almost twice as many rounds as John hus Smith. His target shair was just shy of ten percent, which is nothing to write home about, but he's seen a thirteen percent target share in three of his last five vegas is a pretty ade matchup. Overall, both injuries to New England pass catchers both Devonte Parker and Ramandre Stevenson, Henry could see more looks in this game now. Juwan Johnson could be back this week, and we've seen him with spiked target shaars throughout the season. We've also seen him find the end zone five times. Now he gets Atlanta a team ranking is the sixth best matchup and adjustin Fantasy points allowed to tight ends, So keep an eye on him to make sure he's able to go. If he does go, I think he works. Now we're onto players rostered and fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues who you could consider starting this week, and will begin with another quarterback streamer, Andy Dalton. There's a lot of risk with Andy Dalton because of Taysom Hill, but the matchup is at least there this week. Atlanta's a top ten matchup for quarterbacks and New Orleans actually has the ninth best implied team total on this week slate. Strictly when looking at matchup and projected score, Dalton makes sense, but I like someone like Matt Ryan Moore this week. Damian Paris is going to be sidelined this week. That that leaves the Texans backfield Torex Burkehead and Darrea Goomblewallee. My guess is that Burkehead takes on more work on the ground, he'll likely be the goal line back too. But I'm more concerned about the pass catching in this one. Because Houston's a fourteen point home underdog to the Chiefs. That means a negative game script could be coming. And the Chiefs have allowed the sixth highest adjusted target share to running backs in all of football this year, and it seems reasonable to expect a goomble walle to be the pass catcher for Houston. Burkeheads run more routes into goomble Walley according to Pro Football Focus across the entire season this year, but over the team's last three the more recent sample, a goomble walle has seen thirty routes Burkehead has seen thirteen, and if they use Burkehead more on early downs, they may want to keep them a little bit more fresh. So I'm anticipating a decent receiving day for Daraa goomblewalle if this game script goes the way that we think that it will. And then also on Houston as Chris Moore. Moore's coming off a monster day for the Texans where he saw four twenty six percent target chair without Nico Collins and Brandon Cooks. Cook seems doubtful for this weekend, and Nico Collins may not be able to go too, so that would leave more as one of Houston's starting wide receivers in a likely negative game script against the secondary that's allowed the seventh most adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this year. So yes, please, he's a good sleeper. Nelson Agiler is another player to watch this week. DeVante Parker's dealing with a head injury that was sustained on Monday night, and in that game, Agaler ran the most routes for New England and he saw ten targets. That was twice as many targets as any other Patriot. He had a thirty one percent target chair. Now the Patriots get the Raiders. It's not only a fun revenge game for Agalore, but the Raiders are a top half matchup for wide receivers and adjusted fantasy points allowed. And then one more wide receiver for you in this group. Rashid Shahed. The last time we saw the Saints Shaheed ran just two fewer routes than Chris Alave. He tied Jarvis Landry. He saw four targets, he caught f four of them for seventy five yards. He's a big play threat, and Atlanta ranks in the top five and fifteen plus air yard attempt rate, meaning they see targets down the field against them quite a bit. You're banking on a big play from Shaheed more than likely, but that could happen in this spot. At tight end, there's Kate Oughton. In Week fourteen, Oughton ran nine more routes than Cameron Braid. He scored seven and fifteen PPR points over his last two and Tampa Bay could be forced into a pass heavy script against Cincinnati this week, So if you're in a pinch, you can lean on Aughten. And then lastly, I'm gonna a ton of questions about Jeff Driscoll, so I'll just talk about him here. I do think if you can put Driscoll in your tight end spot, like if you're playing on Yahoo, he makes some sense. He scored nine Fantasy points last week on just six pass attempts. The Texans used him to run the ball seven times. My issue with Driscoll is that obviously we're gonna see Davis Mills take some snaps as well, So that's one problem. We also don't have a very large sample size here, and then we also have no idea what's gonna happen in a super negative game script. Remember Houston kept it close with Dallas last week. That very easily might not be the case this week against Kansas City. And if they're using Davis Mills through the air, if they're using Davis Mills's arm more than Jeff Driscolls, it would seem logical that they would use them in comeback mode, that they would lean on Davis Mills if they're down by a lot of points as opposed to Jef Driscoll. So basically there's a lot up in the air. If you have a solid option like someone like David and Joku, I'd be going in that direction a tight end. If you're throwing a dart anyway, then sure you can ride with Driscoll. It's at least a fun story for your grandkids one day. Now, there are a lot of defensive streamers this week, so I'll try to get through them quickly. First up Washington, they're facing the Giants, and according to Fandels Sportsbook, they're four and a half point home favorites with a forty and a half point over under. That's a good line for defense, and Washington's been good in fantasy over the last month and a half. They have multiple number one overall weekly finishes and they've been a top fifteen defense in each of their last six, so they're a good play. Arizona works this week as well, against a Denver offense that could be without Russell Wilson. Cleveland works for reasons I talked about in the fifteen Transactions episode. I currently don't know who's going to start a quarterback for Baltimore, but they have a really low implied team total. And even though I don't mind the Colts offense this week, they're still one of the best matchups by justin fantasy points allowed. So Minnesota and that defense is in play. And then don't forget about Carolina against Pittsburgh. The Steelers may have to go to Mitch Trubisky, but even if Kenny Pickett plays, it's still a good matchup for a home favorite. So you've got Washington, Arizona, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Carolina there's a lot of defensive streamers this week. That's gonna do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. I'm gonna check out lateround dot com. Otherwise, thanks for listening to everyone. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.