744: Mailbag 3/3/23

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zach er Eason in this episode seven hundred and forty four of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by FanDuel.

00:00:20
Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

00:00:22
Speaker 1: You've got less than two weeks to pre order the Late Round Prospect Guide. The guide features profiles for every running back and wide receiver who were at this year's combine. There's pre draft model scores, rankings, and detailed information about what goes into the model itself. And then there's an entire section on the year two model with profiles of second year NFL running backs and wide receivers. It'll help you figure out what to do with players like Chris Alave or Damian Pierce or Isaiah Pacheco. You can pre order now for eleven ninety nine over on Lateround dot com.

00:00:52
Speaker 2: I got some good questions this week. Let's get to them.

00:00:57
Speaker 1: The first question is from at Mikeyed. It says where would you have ranked Jackson Smith and Jigba among wide receivers if he was able to come out last year? I feel like I've been in this JSN bubble for the last week and a half of my life, and I just can't get out.

00:01:10
Speaker 2: I can't escape.

00:01:12
Speaker 1: But I still have more to say about him because I keep seeing more and more takes about him. As I've said in the past, draft capital is part of my wide receiver model, meaning if a player ends up going higher in the draft than expected, his prospect score is going to change. It's going to get better, and then the reverse is true too. Right now, JSN is projected to go twentieth overall on NFL mock draft database dot Com, and that places him in the ninety six percentile on my prospect model. Last season, Drake London, Chris Olav and Garrett Wilson had better prospect scores than that. Trey Lon Berks and Jamison Williams and Johan Dotson did not now how he would have ranked if he was in that class. I don't know, because this past year did hurt his draft stock more than likely, and each draft is unique with different team needs and such. I could just comment on how my model views all of this and have views London, Alave and Wilson as better prospects than Jackson, Smith and Jigba not by a Ton.

00:02:09
Speaker 2: But they're better.

00:02:11
Speaker 1: I feel like this has made me some JSN hater. At the end of the day, he's gonna be my wide receiver one in this class more than likely. I think he's got an extremely good profile, and he's more than likely someone I'm gonna be drafting this year. I just have seen this taken way too far. At least in my opinion, JSN is not a Jamar Chase prospect. He doesn't have projected draft capital in the top ten, which is really important. I sent a newsletter out last week to subscribers talking about this, and I talked about it when comparing Drake London to JSN on last week's Mailbag episode Draft Capital Matters. There's an inherent evaluation with draft capital. So if JSN does go twentieth overall strictly looking at draft capital, his odds of being elite aren't nearly as good as someone who was drafted in the top ten if you're only looking at draft capital. So, given that we know that he's not a Jamar Chase level prospect or, it appears that way right now. I can't understand the way people are viewing the one, O two and rookie drafts right now. I actually continue this conversation about JSN, and I sent another newsletter on Wednesday about it.

00:03:17
Speaker 2: That one was a little bit more ranty and more qualitative. But there was a tweet.

00:03:22
Speaker 1: From at McNamara Dynasty, who's a really strong follow on Twitter, by the way, and the tweet was referencing a Dynasty trade. It asked which side would you prefer Chris Olave, Kenneth Walker and the one to eleven or AJ Brown Elijah Moore and the one O two. And this is a single quarterback league that's very important. Now, I have a preference for what side I would take here, but I don't think it's like a bad trade or anything. What really got me going with this, because I'm such a nerd about this stuff, was how people were commenting saying that the best two assets in that trade were on the AJ Brown side. In other words, AJ Brown in the one O two were the two best parts of that deal. And I'm just baffled. I don't understand you're telling me that you would trade Chris A. Lave for the one oh two. I mean, you could argue that you shouldn't be trading Kenneth Walker for the one oh two. I'm lower on Kenneth Walker, so I can understand that a little bit more, but Chris A Lave. And yes, some people responded and say that they would that they would trade Chris A Lave for the one o two specifically because they think that Jackson Smith and Jigba is a better prospect than Chris Alave was. And this is where I want to talk a little game theory and logic and how I think about this stuff, because I think it's important to peel back that layer. It is one hundred percent cool and fine and understandable. If you think that Jackson Smith and Jigba is a better prospect this year than Chris A Lave was last year, there's like a one to two percent tile difference in my model. It's not like I see things so drastically different. This isn't like Johan Dotson or Sky Moore versus Chris A Lave. So you might hear that and you might think, Okay, then why is is such a big deal If we like JSN more than Chris Alave straight up right now, if we like JSN more as a prospect, why not trade for him? And the answer is because we've seen Chris Alave dominate in the NFL. Among fifty plus target rookie wide receivers since twenty eleven, a Lave's yards per route run rate was fifth best. His target's per route run was fourth best. His target share per game rate was also fifth best. His yards per team pass attempt was sixth best.

00:05:32
Speaker 2: Even if you.

00:05:33
Speaker 1: Don't care about those peripheral numbers, despite them being predictive, he was still top twenty and PPR points per game among all rookie wide receivers since twenty eleven. A Lave had an amazingly good rookie season and it's been amazingly undervalued. Just look at the way that people viewed Garrett Wilson this past year versus Chris a Lave. Garrett Wilson won Rookie of the Year, and he deserved to. He balled out. He's great, But his numbers weren't any different than Chris Alave's. In fact, on a per game basis, on a per target basis, on a per reception basis, Chris Alave looked better. You can't just ignore what Chris Alave did as a rookie. Data points in the NFL are so much more valuable than data points from college. It's why if you look at my year two model, it's far more accurate in predicting future success than the prospect model is, and of course it is. The NFL is different. Some players dominate in college, but they don't dominate in the NFL. When you have actual evidence of a player doing well at the NFL level at a young age as a rookie, you have to weigh that heavily. Like think of it this way, what's more predictive of future fantasy football success in the NFL? Chris olive is incredibly good rookie season in the NFL, or Jackson Smith and Jigba's great sophomore season in college. I think we all know the answer to that, and as all of you know, I think about this stuff in a non black and white way. Of course, there's a possibility that Jasn is better than Chris Alave. What if he ends up being the best wide receiver of all time? You have to assign some sort of probability to those types of outcomes. What's possible isn't necessarily probable. It's more probable for JSN to have that high of a ceiling than some random wide receiver in this class. Yeah, but it's also more probable for Chris Alave to get to that upside given what we saw from him as a rookie, and how if that's aligned with other stud wide receivers in fantasy football. I said this in my email blast earlier this week. But there's a scene from Family Guy where Peter and Lois Griffin are given this opportunity to get a boat, but then they're interrupted by the choice to take a mystery box instead.

00:07:44
Speaker 2: So they could either have a boat or they could have the mystery box.

00:07:47
Speaker 1: And there's a very famous quote from Peter that gets thrown out there all the time where he says, a boat's a boat, but the mystery box could be anything. It can even be a boat. I'm all about chasing upside and gobbling up rookie picks to old value on my Dynasty Roster. I've talked about that at length the last couple of years on this show. But why are we ignoring the potential upside of Chris A Lave himself, who flashed that upside as a rookie. To me, it feels like, if you're gonna trade Chris Alave for the one oh two, you're taking the mystery box on the chance that you could get a boat. This best question is from at Algae's it says mail back question. At the end of your wide receivers that produce like studspod, you mentioned Zay Flowers. Who is your comp for him? Where does he rank amongst wide receivers pre combine, Zay Flowers is one of the toughest prospects for me this year. I didn't avoid talking about him earlier this week because of that. Though he just has a weird profile on my model, his stat score really isn't that bad. He had a best season yards per team pass attempt rate of two point four to five, which is above average for players in the model. His receptions per game rate was above average two, and then his touchdown share was elite. His best season touchdown share was over fifty seven percent. The issue is that his breakout age was not super strong, and he's kind of old now. He's entering the league at twenty two and a half. When you mix all of that and his projected size together, it's tough to find reliable comps. You get guys like Ryan Broyles and Marcus Wheaton Right now he's in that ninetieth to ninety first percentile range in the model, but we'll see how things shift post combine with his size and then obviously his draft capital. But he doesn't have the profile that I typically go for. The thing is, though, and I talk about this all the time, but the dynasty community typically doesn't go for that profile either, So I think that's what's going to be really important here. We sort of saw something similar with Johan Dotts in a year ago, where he became undervalued because people just didn't like that profile, but the draft capital was there, his profile wasn't that bad, and people were fading dots and in favor of inferior players. I kind of feel similarly about Flowers. So there's a chance that my model may not love him versus where the NFL drafts him, but I might still draft him in rookie drafts depending on what the market does.

00:10:02
Speaker 2: This last question is from Patreon. It's from Cameron.

00:10:04
Speaker 1: It says, Hey, JG, you talk a lot about stats you care about for wide receivers and running backs. What are stats you don't like for predicting NFL success. I don't think the wide receiver with the fastest forty time in their class has ever been successful. Yeah, so my prospect model doesn't use much from the NFL combine. It does have a weight adjusted forty time threshold that it wants running backs to hit, but for wide receivers it's nothing.

00:10:26
Speaker 2: It's just heightened weight measurements.

00:10:28
Speaker 1: Now, some might think that that's wrong, but part of the reason I think there's not that much signal is because it's usually captured in draft capital. Like, if you had a twentieth percentile athlete at wide receiver, he probably isn't someone who's gonna get drafted very high in the first place, and he likely didn't have the best collegiate production profile.

00:10:45
Speaker 2: I do think.

00:10:45
Speaker 1: Players likely rise and fall in the NFL draft because of the combine, so it's still important, but it's definitely easy to sort of double count the NFL combine numbers. But like the NFL, the stats that I care far less about are generally efficient driven ones like yards per carrier yards per reception.

00:11:04
Speaker 2: I think yards per reception can.

00:11:05
Speaker 1: Help shape your opinion on the type of player that you're analyzing, but as it pertains to being predictive, I just don't care that much. I care a lot more about the volume driven stats, so it's pretty similar to what I always talk about. Focus on the volume stats and watch out for the efficiency driven ones.

00:11:23
Speaker 2: Next question is from at Vinnie Barelli eighteen.

00:11:26
Speaker 1: It says, subscriber to your Late Round Draft Guide and huge fan of your podcast.

00:11:30
Speaker 2: Thanks.

00:11:31
Speaker 1: First time question asker here, what are your thoughts on Alec Pierce for year two? So spoiler alert, but I was really surprised by Pierce's score in my year two model. He's not in a tier that gives him some amazing chance to be good, but it was better than I expected. My prospect model had him as like a seventy seven percentile wide receiver coming out, and he's in the eighty fourth percentile right now my year two model. Historically, and this can all be found in the Prospect Guide, but historically players in that tier give us a PPR point per game season of fourteen or more points at a fifteen percent rate, and either year two or year three. Now that might seem really low, and it's definitely not high, but each tier gets progressively worse. The ninety fifth to one hundred percent tile tier is at eighty seven percent, so eighty seven percent of them have given us a season of fourteen or more PPR points per game in either year two or year three. Then the next grouping is forty eight percent than twenty four percent, and then Pierce's tier, which is fifteen percent. A lot of this has to do with the fact that, yes, his numbers weren't great last year, but the Colts offense in their passing attack, was really bad. His yards per route run rate wasn't that far off of Michael Pittman's and his yards per team pass attempt also wasn't horrific, and that's a number that gives you some team context. I actually think that Pierce is a really good by low candidate right now, mostly because no one cares about Alec Pierce. I don't think his probable ceiling is that high. But could he give us a wide receiver two, maybe wide receiver three season over the next few years. Definitely possible. The last question is from at the Atomic Gator. It says, how does your model handle guys like Roshawn Johnson who looked good, but we're under elite players like Bijon Robinson. I think it's important to first know that I don't simply take whatever the model says and stated as fact, I have subjectivity that I insert, which would include a situation like this. The model is just a really helpful guide to allow me to not weigh certain variables too much or too little, like early declared status or draft capital or anything like that. I also think what's important here is that it doesn't happen often. This scenario is not common. We definitely have running back profiles from backs who are just misused at the collegiate level, but generally speaking, as a general trend across a larger sample, production will follow good running backs. Very rarely is there going to be an NFL caliber backup running back behind one of the best prospects of the decade, So it doesn't get picked up very well in the model. I just subjectively insert my thoughts, which I think it's totally rational. But keep in mind this is yet another reason why draft capital matters. If a front office likes what they see in Roshan Johnson, then they're going to draft him earlier, and that's then going to get factored into his prospect score. He may end up having a bad draft capital delta, which is a metric that compares how the model likes the player versus how the NFL drafted, But the prospect score is what matters in the end. That's what matters most. And the truth of the matter is that super poor production profiles rarely work out at these positions in fantasy football. Right now, today, we're optimistic that Roshan Johnson can break that trend because he played behind Bijon Robinson. He looks good, but we could look back in four years and say, man, he really didn't make a fantasy football impact in the NFL. It's a very possible outcome, So it's subjective. I do have some inputs at wide receiver that factor in teammates, but it didn't seem to matter that much. Oddly at running back. I think it's because it just doesn't happen that much. At the end of the day, draft capitol is just going to go a longer way for a guy like Johnson. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't for it to follow me on Twitter at lateroundqb head to lateround dot com pre order that prospect guide. Otherwise, enjoy your weekend everyone, enjoy the NFL Combine. I'll talk to you next week.