593: Week 14 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J Zacherson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyas and the editor in chief at fandled at number five dot com in this episode five hundred and ninety three of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I've gotten some feedback over the last few weeks about this sleeper show, and that piece of feedback is that people don't seem to care about the players to Sit section. I mean, it's been rough the last couple of weeks that section has. I'll be the first to admit that I've been like fifty to fifty with it each week. I was on a roll for the first couple of months of the season with those picks, but things have regressed. Maybe that has something to do with it, Maybe that has something to do with the feedback, but listeners aren't talking about that when setting the feedback in. The feedback is centered around the fact that they don't have those players to sit, So whoever I'm talking about, it's directed at a really small number of people. So I'm going to change things up over the final weeks of this season. Instead of having my typical three tiers of players, I'm going to add one that includes players roster in fifty to seventy percent of Yahoo leagues. This is all on top of the sleepers that I'm already talking about. I'm not taking any sleeper picks away. I'm simply adding sleepers to this show that may just happen to be available in your league, especially if it's a shallower league, and I'll try to get three of them from that tier each week. And I think the approach makes sense and I appreciate the feedback. My goal is to make this podcast as usable as possible, and I think this is a way to make this sleeper show more usable. Now. As for last week, it was a weird sleeper show. I mentioned throughout the episode that I didn't have a ton of confidence in the picks because it was just a really tough week, and I'd say the results were mixed. Some players didn't even play like the Giants receivers that I called out, but Taylor Heineke was super average, Boston Scott had an illness, he didn't even touch the ball. Foster Moreau was disappointing as a Street. It was rough out there. The defensive streaming picks were fine, though Taysom Hill was a good top streamer. Tevin Coleman's workload was solid, and Russell Gage came through with a big day. Given my expectations, I'd say the Sleeper Show last week sort of met those expectations. It wasn't very good, but I'm feeling better about Week fourteen. Before getting into the Sleepers this week, I want to remind you guys about FanDuel's NFL Sunday Million. The prize pool for this week is one and a half million dollars, with first place taking home three hundred thousand dollars. All you have to do is head over to fandle today, click on the NFL Sunday Million Contest, draft your lineup of players, sit back and enjoy some Sunday NFL football. Go to fando dot com to participate in the NFL Sunday Million. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fando dot com or download the Fandle lap for more details. Let's kick things off with this new tier. Players rostered in fifty to seventy percent of Yahoo leagues. I know that these aren't deep sleepers, but it's at least giving everyone more players to choose from, and you never know they might be available. They're clearly available in a lot of leagues in general. Anyway, Let's kick things off with Jarvis Landry. He's still out there in about thirty percent of Yahoo leagues, and considering what's going on with Cleveland, he makes for a decent start. The Browns don't have a lot of pass catchers. Obj is gone, David and Joku's on the COVID list, Harrison Bryant's banged up. That could leave a high target share for Landry, and that's generally what we've seen from Landry this year anyway. Since Week seven, when he returned from injury, Landry's average a target chair per game of twenty six point three percent. Yes, the Browns are run heavy, but that still resulted in seven point seven targets per game against Baltimore Secondary that just lost Marlon Humphrey. I think Landry's fine this week. You have to like the potential volume that the Bill's passing attack might see against Tampa Bay this weekend. There's a solid fifty two and a half point over under in that game, according to Fandals Sportsbook and there's just a three point spread, so it's projected to be close. In neutral game scripts. This year, the Buccaneers ran first in the NFL and pass rate, the Bills ranked second, and Tampa Bay has faced the highest pass rate against them this season as well, so the pass catches for Buffalo should benefit. Whether that's Cole Beasley or Emmanuel Sanders who haven't done a lot in recent weeks, they're still running starter routes and playing starter snaps, so in this matchup you can get away with starting them. And then the last guy I just want to bring up in this tier is Sony Michelle. I think a lot of people are making the assumption that Michelle did what he did in Week thirteen because Darryl Henderson was banged up. But there were reports during the week that talked about Michelle just naturally taking on a bigger role, And there was a tweet from Rams beat writer Jordan Rodrieg from The Athletic that said, quote Sean McVay did not want to commit to Sony Michelle moving into a traditional lead back role, but added that the type of downhill physicality the Rams utilized behind Michelle and some of those blocking concepts is something he believes they'll need down the back stretch. I think there's a non zero chance we see Sony Michelle in the lead back role from here on out. He had one hundred and twenty one yards on the ground against Jacksonville after seeing ninety two percent of the team's running back rushes, and that's something that the Rams might see and want to do more of. So don't sleep on him, even if Darryl Henderson is healthier. That was sort of fifteen transactions type commentary, but I think it was necessary to call out This next tier consists of players rostered in twenty five to fifty percent of leagues, So we're taking a little bit deeper here. The majority of you should be able to find these guys in your waiver wire, and I've got a lot of players in this tier to talk about. So let's kick things off with this week's top streamer, Taysom Hill. In Week thirteen, we saw exactly why Taysom Hill is valuable in fantasy football. The man threw four interceptions and it didn't even matter because he ran the ball eleven times for over one hundred yards. This week, he gets a Jets secondary that's allowing the fourth most adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks. Hill should be rostered in far more leagues than he's rostered in. I talked about Marquez Valdez Scanty on the fifteen Transaction Show, and I think he works this week within the tier as well. Since coming back from his injury, he's led the Packers in air yards, He's been among the league leaders in aer yards, and over his last two he's seen target shares of thirty two percent and twenty and a half percent. This week, the Packers get the Bears. Chicago's been a slightly above average team when looking at AU justin fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, but they've allowed the tenth highest adjusted target shair to wide receivers and they're actually fifth and completion rate allowed on fifteen plus air yard throws. What does MVS do? He gets those aer yards, he gets down the field. He makes sense because of his big playability. With Adam Thielen out this week against Pittsburgh, you can look at the secondary pass catchers out of Minnesota, so that includes kJ Osborne and Tyler Conklin. Conklin's coming off a game in Week thirteen where he saw twenty two percent target share, and we should expect some sort of bump with him with Adam Thielen sidelined. It's hard to find that kind of work in the tight end position no matter the matchup, So he works and with kJ Osborne, like I talked about earlier this week, his projected target shair is in the high teams. Pittsburgh's an above average opponent for wide receivers as well and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. So again, I think both guys work this week because they're projected increase in workload. The last time we saw the Tennessee Titans, Dontrell Hilliard scored more Fantasy points than Deontay Foreman. Foreman saw more work on the ground, but Hilliard doubled him up in targets through the air. The reason I think that split backfield was interesting is because it was in a negative game script against New England, and in that environment it made sense for more Hilliard and less Foreman because that's how Tennessee has utilized those backs this year. Hilliard's been more of the pass catcher. You could argue that Foreman's usage in that game was a very very good thing because in a more positive game script like they might see against Jacksonville this weekend. He could be in store for a decent sized workload. That's why I'm into him this week. Gamescript favors him more than the other backs in that backfield. Gerald Everett had a game to forget last week. If you watch that game, you know exactly what I'm talking about. But the peripherals were still fine for him. He still was running significantly more routes than teammate Will Disley. He still had a sixteen percent target chair and he still has a twenty point six percent target shair per game since Russell Wilson returned from his injury. Now Everett gets the Texans and Houston ranks is a top five team and adjusted fantasy points allowed the tight ends, everytt could have a nice bounce back week. Moving on, let's tuck about players roster in ten to twenty five percent of Yahoo leagues. The last time Ben Roethlisberger didn't throw a touchdown pass in the game, it was Week two of the twenty nineteen season. That was the game that he was injured against Seattle and then out for the year. Ben's also given us two top ten performances over his last three, and he's at least thrown for two hundred yards in every contest since a tough Week one game against Buffalo. I mean Roethlisberger is not great, don't get me wrong, but in a game against Minnesota, who ranked six and adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks, I could see him being a decent enough streamer this week. With all the tight end issues going on in Cleveland, Austin Hooper makes a ton of sense as a streamer this week. On the year, Cleveland rings first in the NFL and tight end target share, and they don't really have obvious options that wide receiver outside of Jarvis Landry. So if David and jokho ends up sitting and with Harris and Bryant out, Austin Hooper could see a decent amount of work against Baltimore. And by the way, the Ravens are fifth in the league and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends. The Saints have been a team to attack via the slot this year. They ring second in target share allowed to that area of the field and third in total slot yards allowed. Elijah Moore against the Saints. He should be in your lineup, But don't sleep on Jamison Crowder this week. Either, especially with Corey Davis now out. Crowder has played about seventy one percent of his snaps from the slot over the last few weeks, according to Pro Football Focus, and again I would expect them to at least try to take advantage of that matchup against the Saints this weekend. We've seen the Houston backfield go from four viable options to just one over the last few weeks. David Johnson was out last week, and in his absence, rex Burg had handled sixty two percent of the team's running back rushes and he had a seven point seven percent target share. Those aren't incredible numbers, but they're not terrible either, especially after having a fifty five percent running back rush share and an eleven and a half percent target share the week prior with David Johnson. Now. I don't love the ceiling for Burkehead for a lot of reasons, but he should see some volume against Seattle, and Seattle's a team that ranked second in adjusted Fantasy points allowed to running backs this year. It's tough to find running backs who were projected to see at least some volume roster in a low number of leagues, but Burkehead does make some sense this week. Now onto the final tier, or players rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues you could consider starting. How about DeAndre Carter. He's run the second most routes and wide receiver for Washington in each of their last two games, and even though he only had a three percent target share last week, he had seen a target share per game average of sixteen percent across his previous four Definitely keep tabs on reports around Kurt Samuel, but against Dallas, Washington may not be able to maintain their current run heavy pace. During this win streak that they're on, they haven't had a single game with more pass attempts than rush attempts. But as four point underdogs this week, they may not have the luxury of playing in a neutral game script, so if that script flips, then Carter could see five or six targets. An obvious go to in this tier this week is Jamichael Hasty. The forty nine Ers are the third most run heavy team in football, and this week they get Cincinnati. The Bengals rank is the sixth best matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Elijah Mitchell is dealing with a concussion where his symptoms popped up a day after their game on Sunday, and Jeff Wilson is dealing with a knee injury, though he did get a limited practice in on Wednesday. But if both of those players are out, Jamichael Hasey would be the dude. And the last player in this tier to call out is James O'Shaughnessy. I talked about him last week. He didn't do a whole lot, but he did lead the Jags and targets. Jacksonville is a pretty big underdog this week against Tennessee, which means more throwing, and the last time these teams faced each other, Jacksonville tight ends had a thirty percent target chhair. It's definitely a dart throw, but of the lower tiered tight end options, O'Shaughnessy makes the most sense. As for the defensive streamers, there's a ton of them this week. I talked about Green Bay earlier in the week in the fifteen Transaction Show. Because they're big favorites against Chicago. They work, but you could also go with Tennessee against Jacksonville, Carolina against Atlanta, or Seattle against Houston. All of those teams are facing offenses that rank as top offense is the target and adjusted fantasy points allowed for your defenses. That's going to do for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. We got one more show this week, the Mailbag episode. Talk to you then,