1053: Week 11 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha.

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Speaker 2: J J Zacher reson.

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Speaker 1: What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten fifty three of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I'd been running really hot with this Sleeper show heading into last week. I'm talking like four straight awesome weeks, and i knew that last week was gonna be tough, and so there were a few more misses than I've had over the last month, but I'm still pretty happy overall with how things went. On the bad side, Sam Darnold was a horrible pick, Romeo Dobbs was two, Kyle Pitts couldn't get going, and then a lot of the deep sleepers they didn't do that much at all either. I'm talking Jalen Lane, Zavier Lagette, Jerry McNichols, and AJ Barner. But Jackson Dart was great. Aaron Jones came through with almost sixteen PPR points, Troy Franklin had fifteen, Wandel Robinson and Darius Slayton were both over twelve. Alec Pierce had a big game, Parker Washington was solid, and the mid tier tight ends. My goodness, every single one of them scored at least nine and a half PPR points, but four of the five hit fourteen and a half PPR points, those four being Theo Johnson, Juwan Johnson, Kay dott And and Dalton Schultz, Marcus Mariot and Jacoby Brissett. They were good deep quarterback plays too, and Kyle Williams he saved his day with that big touchdown. So no, it wasn't as good as some of the other recent weeks, but with what I was working with, I'm happy with those results. And by the way, I went to Twitter and I asked if people wanted to keep hearing about these hits and misses to open up the Sleeper show, and eighty percent of you said to keep the recap. So I'm keeping the recap. The people have spoken. Now let's move on to Week eleven. We'll start as usual by looking at players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues, and that quarterback I have two for you in this tier. One of them is Joe Flacco. Flacco has been the QB one in fantasy football since he was traded to Cincinnati. He's averaging about twenty five standard Fantasy points per game. That alone is tough to bench. But he's also facing Pittsburgh, a team he destroyed back in Week seven. I'd expect the Steelers defense to have better answers in this game, and it's in Pittsburgh too, But they're top ten matchup for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed, So Flacco can find your lineup now if you want a high variance option JJ McCarthy. On paper, he's in a good spot. The Vikings get the Bears this week. They have a team total over twenty five points, and they're at home and Chicago is the fourth best matchup this season by justin points allowed to quarterbacks. They've a looted about twenty seven passing yards over expected per game this year. I know McCarthy hasn't gotten it done, but it could be a get right game for him. At running back, I've got one player in this tier for you, and it's Woody Marks. I think people should be excited about what Marks did last week on the usage front, but one week that's not a trend yet and this week will be a good test for that. The Texans their seven point favorites against a Titans team that's allowed the fourth most adjusted fantasy points to running backs this year. We saw Marx give us an RB six performance against Tennessee the last time these two teams meant. But I do think there's at least some risk that we see more Nick Chubb this weekend than we did last week. But more optimistically, if Marx gets the same workload week over week, he could smash. We're talking about a seventy four percent running back rush share, a fifty five percent routchare, and one of the best matchups in the league for running backs, so he's a good option at wide.

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Speaker 2: Receiver in this group.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna cheat just a little bit and go to Quentin Johnston just because he's slightly slightly above that eighty percent mark. Qj's been kind of disappointing after what he did during the first four weeks of the season, but he's coming off a game against Pittsburgh where he hit a thirty percent target share. It was only a five catch, forty two yard performance, but the matchup this week it's pretty juicy.

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Speaker 2: The Chargers get the Jags.

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville's completely average when it comes to justin fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, but They've been specifically bad against perimeter wideouts. Against the They've given him actually the fewest wide receiver points per game this year against outside wideouts their third worst. And Johnston he's run the vast majority of his routes from the outside. The other guys in LA are fine, too, but I think Quentin Johnston has a better game this week than what we've seen over the last month or so. Jamis Winston is starting for the Giants. I think this at least keeps the wide receivers neutral, but it could help Darius Slayton a little bit more than Wandell Robinson because Winston has his tendency to throw the ball down the field. He's aggressive in the matchup. It's better for Slayton this week too. They get Green Bay and the Packers have been below averages stopping perimeter wide receivers while above average at stopping slot guys. So that's a bump for Slayton and a slight downgrade for wandel Robinson. I think they're closer this week than many would expect. Just do be aware that Slayton didn't practice on Wednesday. If he can't go this week, Wandell Robinson's gonna play more on the outside and he could just get peppered with targets. Now last in this tier at tight end is zach Ertz. I know they don't have Jaden Daniels, but the Commanders get the Dolphins this week. Miami's the fourth best matchup for tight ends by justin fantasy points allowed. Ertz is also averaging a strong twenty two percent target chair per game rate over his last five It could come together for a nice outing for zach Ertz. This nice group of sleepers consists of guys rostered in twenty to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. And again we'll start at quarterback, and there's a lot of streamers in this group. Aaron Rodgers is the first one to call out. The Steelers have an implied team total against Cincinnati of twenty seven and a half points, and the Bengals are the second best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. They're all so terrible at defending tight ends, and Pittsburgh they target their tight ends a lot. They have the second highest tight end target share in all of football. We saw that at work the last time these two teams played, so it could be a bounce back game for Aaron Rodgers and this Steelers offense. Jacoby pursets another one to call out here, He's not Finn, which is a QB one, a top twelve quarterback in each of his four starts this year. Now, the Cardinals get a slightly above average opponent when they face San Francisco. The pace score in this game is pretty good, so there could be more plays run, and Arizona has a twenty three point ply team total even without Marvin Harrison, Junior Brissette should be solid enough. I still have three more quarterback streamers for real, and one of them to a.

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Speaker 2: Tongue of Ioloa.

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Speaker 1: Tua faces off against a Commander's defense that has been struggling. The Dolphins have a twenty five point ply team total and Washington's the fifth best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. Quarterbacks have averaged thirty more passing yards per game when they face the Commanders versus other opponents versus their season long average. That makes Tua a worthy streamer. Now, look, I know that Gino Smith is very hard to trust, but he does get Dallas this week. That's the best matchup on paper in the entire league. The Cowboys got some help on defense at the deadline. They're also coming off their by so there is some risk with this matchup, but they've also given up fifty eight passing yards per game this year over expected. If there's one time to start Gino Smith, it'd be this week, and then the last one's Marcus Mariota. As I mentioned, the Commanders get the Dolphins, and Miami's a top ten matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. Mariota's giving fantasy managers at least a couple of points per game with his legs, and Washington is one of the better pressure rate matchups in the league this week, it's at least above average, so Mariota is in play. The Cardinals backfield is really up in the air right now. Bam Knight suffered an ankle injury last week. I have no idea if he's gonna play. Is Trey Benson gonna be back this week? It doesn't sound likely, but I currently have no idea. Let's just pretend that both of those guys are out. That would lead the backfield to Michael Carter and Amrio de Mercado, and it's a matchup against San Francisco a team that's allowed the ninth most adjusted fantasy points to running backs this year. Now, we've seen this backfield tandem in the past and Michael Carter got the edge, but Cacaddo has actually been running pretty well, so I'd probably just prefer him if it came down to these two running backs. If Night is in, we should probably lean that way, and then Carter is more of a deep play. I've got Taj Spears in here too. It's not the best matchup on paper for Tennessee. Houston ranks is a bottom ten matchup for running backs this season, but the Titans are big underdogs as they typically are, and the Texans their tenth this season and adjusted target share allowed to running backs. As we know, Spears has taken on that pass catching role in that backfield. He's seen a solid twelve percent target share over his last four games, so if you're in a pinch, he could give you some points. In PPR leagues, it's tough to not go with Parker Washington right now, regardless of what's happening around him at the other wide receiver positions. In Jacksonville, he's seen target shares of twenty one percent twenty seven percent and twenty nine percent over his last three games. Washington is also playing more in the slot. He's actually played three games this year with a slot rate of fifty percent or greater. In those games, he's had targetshers a twenty nine percent, twenty seven percent, and twenty nine percent.

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Speaker 2: That's pretty awesome.

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Speaker 1: Now. The Chargers are not a great matchup in general, but they've been a little bit worse against the slot versus outside receivers. I will say, though Washington did not practice on Wednesday, keep an eye on that and Brian Thomas did. And obviously they have Jacobe Myers now, so he's a very risky play, but the stability of that slot role, it's at least been there. The Cowboys are the worst team against outside wide receivers in all football. They also allow the most adjusted fantasy points to wide outs. They get Vegas this week, so that brings me to two guys one players in this tier. One's a deep sleeper, but Trey Tucker has not ranked in the top twenty since Week three. That's actually the only time he's been higher than wide receiver twenty four in a given week. That's when he went off for forty one PPR points. At least we know there's a ceiling with him. He just hasn't been that productive though. However, He's almost entirely an outside receiver for Vegas and he's run a route on a one hundred percent of the team's drop over the last two weeks. So given that matchup, he makes sense as a sleeper. And then the deeper play is Tyler Lockett. I'll just shout him out now. Lockett ran around on eighty percent of the Raiders dropbacks last week. He saw a twenty four percent target share. He did have a sixty four percent slot rate, though, So I do prefer Trey Tucker to Tyler Lockett, not just because he's gonna be on the field more, but I like the matchup more in general. Another wide out to consider is Tesz Johnson. He's been getting it done on the production front, but he is a regression candidate. He's played about four to five p PIERO points per game above expected over the last month. The Bucks get the Bills this week, though it's a game that could see some scoring, and Buffalo's a top half matchup for wide receivers this year by justin points allowed, I don't love Johnson because he's coming off a game where he had just an eleven percent target chair, But you could do worse. Romeo Dobbs hurt his chest against the Eagles, and that awful Monday night gaim at least awful from a fantasy perspective. If he can't go, which it does sound like he's probably gonna be able to. But if he can't, you could look at Christian Watson. Even if Romeo Dobbs does play, I think Watson's a decent play this week. They get a Giants team that's allowed the tenth most adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this year. Watson's seen his route share gradually rise since he came back from that ACL. It's been sixty five percent, seventy five percent, and then eighty three percent over his three.

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Speaker 2: Games this year.

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Speaker 1: It's a really good spot for him at tight end. I'm rocking with my guy, Theo Johnson, even with Jamis Winston expected to start against Green Bay. The Packers are a pretty average opponent for tight ends by adjusted points allowed, and Johnson has about a twenty percent target share this season.

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Speaker 2: Since Malik Neighbors.

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Speaker 1: Went down, he's been at about an eighty seven percent route share over his last four. He should be involved and maybe we see some more down the field looks with Jameis Winston under center, and then I'm gonna go back to Colson Loveland this week too. His route share did drop with Cole Comet back last week, but the Bears get Minnesota in Week eleven. The Vikings have been above average matchup for tightand this season by justin points allowed, and they rank second in adjusted target shair allowed to the position.

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Speaker 2: Loveland's peripherals weren't really that great last week.

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie, but he's been so effective lately when he's been targeted. You have to imagine the Bears getta more involved this week than that eleven percent target chair that he had last week. This final tier of players includes guys roster and zero to twenty percent of Yahoo leagues. I've got one quarterback for you. It's a guy that I've already talked about, but is Jameis Winston. This is not an amazing spot for Winston. Let's just be honest. They get the Packers. Green May is a below average matchup for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed. This game is in New York, though, and the Giants likely can't go with a very conservative approach. And Winston's hit twenty three standard Fantasy points and three of his last seven starts that came last.

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Speaker 2: Year with Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: There are a ton of good streaming options this week to choose from, so you probably don't have to go this low, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's moderately usable. We've got some interesting running backs in this group this week. The first one Sean Tucker. I shouted him out on the fifteen Transaction Show earlier in the week because he's seen more work in that Bucks backfield. Over the last couple of games. He's had running back rush years of forty forty seven percent. Now, he won't get it done for you through the air, but the Bucks get the Bills this week. Buffalo's allowed twenty two running back rushing yards over expected per game this year.

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Speaker 2: That's one of the worst rates in the league.

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Speaker 1: They're also a top five opponent for running backs by justin Fantasy points allowed, so in deeper formats, Tucker might be okay. We're obviously looking more at backups in this tier. In one backup who is interesting this week is Emmanuel Wilson. He's been seeing route shares of like thirty percent or so consistently over the last month and a half. He didn't get a ton of run last week and what was a closer game for Green Bay, but this one against the Giants could go in the opposite direction hypothetically. In New York is the second best matchup for running backs by justin points allowed. Chris Rodriguez is the easiest go to in this tier at running back. He was playing as Washington's RB one last week before suffering a shoulder injury, but it sounds like he's gonna be good to go this week. If he's seeing a lot of that early down stuff For Washington, that's big because they get a Miami team that's been below average against running backs this year in terms of Fantasy points allowed and the number of rushing yards they've allowed versus expectation. So Chris Rodriguez pretty strong sleeper. It doesn't sound like JK. Dobbins is going to be on the field this week and probably longer, which means it's R. J. Harvey season, but we know the Broncos will likely still split that backfield to some degree. To me, Tyler Biday would only see a small uptick. Julil McLoughlin would step in and get more on the ground. Now, my initial reaction was to say the mcglofflin would be my pick for this week as the sleeper outside of r J.

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Speaker 2: Harvey, of course, But.

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Speaker 1: The more I've dug into it, the more I think you might be better off, at least in PPR leagues, to use Tyler Beiday. The Broncos get the Chiefs and Kansas City is a bottom five team for running backs by justin points allowed. But if the Broncos hit a negative game script, which is very very possible, they could use more Tyler Bidet. And not only that, but Kansas City ranks fourth and adjusted target chair allowed to running backs that also favors Bedey. So I'm gonna lean Bidet as a PPR option, maybe McLaughlin more in a standard one, but I expect both to at least touch the ball. I'm pretty bullish about RJ. Harvey, but it won't only be RJ. Harvey in that backfield. The Texans are an extremely tilting team the way they've deployed their rookie wide receivers this year, very very frustrating. Jaden Higgins has hit a fifty percent route chare just once with an active Nico Collins, and it came last week.

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Speaker 2: He's now hit.

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Speaker 1: Target chairs though, despite that of twenty one percent and sixteen percent and two of his last three. Now, I could say that Xavier Hutchinson is a sleeper here, but I'm gonna go with rational coaching and I'm gonna go with upside and say Higgins. The Texans face the Titans this week, and Tennessee has been worse against outside receivers than slot ones, So if you're desperate, maybe Higgins finds the end zone once again.

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Speaker 2: The Dolphins get the Commanders this.

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Speaker 1: Week, as I've talked about, and Malik Washington gets a great slot matchup. He's lined up out of the slot on about half of his routes over the last handful of weeks, and he's seen about a seventeen percent target share per game rate since Tyreek Hill went down. I like him this week because they can take advantage of when he's in the slot. The Commanders give up the second most Fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. That's according to PFF data, So I don't mind Malik Washington in a deep deep league. Now, I know you guys are gonna think that I'm lying, but I was so close, so close to calling out Jayalen Naylor last week on this show because Baltimore has not been good against the slot and then he goes out he has a monster game, and man, that was so frustrating because it would have been an awesome, awesome call. I want to be as good as I possibly can. What can I say? But I'm going back to him this week. The Vikings get the Bears, and Chicago's actually been about average when it comes to fantasy points allowed to perimeter receivers, but if loat guys, they're third and adjusted points allowed to the position and their ninth and adjusted slot target share allowed. Naylor's seen target chairs of seventeen percent and fifteen percent over his last two I wouldn't be insanely surprised if he has an OK outing again this week. Mac Hollands should be on your radar this week. With Kai Shan Boody sidelined, Hollins is in a thirty percent target chair.

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Speaker 2: This is real.

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Speaker 1: He's hit a thirty percent target chair and two of his last three, and they get a favorable matchup against the Jets secondary this week that no longer has Sauce Gardner, so Hollins is definitely in play. So are the Cardinals wide receivers. Marvin Harrison Junior. He's out this week because of appendicitis. That's gonna allow Michael Wilson to probably get more looks. To definitely get more looks. But I really like Greg Dortsch this week too. They get the forty nine ers and San Francisco. According to my numbers, they're the absolute worst team against slot receivers. I'm talking most adjusted fantasy points allowed and the highest adjusted target chair allowed to slot guys. Dortsch is definitely not as safe as Michael Wills. Wilson's the safer play, but I could see Derch coming through with a big day too, So both of them are deeper sleepers at tight end this tier. I'm gonna go with a fifteen transactions guy Dawson Knox, like I said earlier this week when Dalton Kinkad was sidelined. Earlier this season, Knock saw a very respectable seventy seven percent route share. He just faced Atlanta, so the target shair wasn't very high. Atlanta does that to tight ends. Despite that, he did find the end zone. Now Buffalo gets an average to slightly below average matchup against Tampa Bay, but it's better than that Atlanta won, so I think Knox can be okay as a streamer. Last week without Jacobe Myers, the Raiders changed things up a bit and ran twelve personnel on forty seven percent of their plays. Prior to that, their twelve personnel rate was twenty seven percent. That meant a little bit more Michael Mayer. Mayer had a sixteen percent target share, and now the Raiders get the Cowboys and what could be a pass heavy, higher scoring game for them. So as a deep sleeper, Michael Mayer kind of works. There's also Luke Musgrave. He didn't come through in Week ten, though he was close to having an ok day, but he did run a route on eighty one percent of Jordan Love's dropbacks. Now he gets the Giants. New York's just an average matchup against tight ends. Green Bay, though has an implied team total of twenty six points. It's one of the better marks in the slate that should give us more confidence in Musgrave's floor. This week, and then finally I'm gonna go with John new Smith, but maybe even Pat Fryarmouth. The last time the Steelers face the Bengals, they really got their tight ends involved. That's because Cincinnati is by far, by far the worst team in football at defending tight ends. They ring first and adjusted target share allowed to the position and their first and adjusted points allowed.

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Speaker 2: Team tight ends.

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Speaker 1: When facing Cincinnati, they scored nine and a half more pper points per game than their season long average.

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Speaker 2: That's by far the biggest margin in the league.

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Speaker 1: Smith is my pick just because he's been running more routes than the other tight ends this season, but Pat Fryarmouth he could be a decent deep sleeper as well. Now, as for the the defenses this week, we'll go with Atlanta against Carolina, like I said earlier in the week, Chicago against Minnesota given the way the Vikings offense has been playing, and actually every defense against JJ McCarthy has been a top twelve defense this year in his four starts. And then I don't really mind Kansas City against Denver, so that's more of a Denver is just a twenty point imply team total type of play as opposed to one where I think Kansas City gets a lot of sacks in the game. Honestly, though, it's a pretty tough week for defensive streaming. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are mestarting fourrea pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.