762: Post-Draft Rookie Rankings

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacheras j Jae Zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Eson in this episode seven hundred and sixty two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I'm sure a lot of you have finished some rookie drafts already and hopefully you were able to use my post draft rankings to help. On today's episode, I'm gonna talk through some of those rankings to see how things change pre to post draft, and I'll focus on single quarterback leagues with some random superflex thoughts thrown in there. This information isn't necessarily new, because you could get in the Prospect Guide or on the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon, but some of the analysis and the logic behind the rankings that might be no. I see this as a necessary exercise to sort of move past draft season and shift our minds into redraft mode. And of course, if you haven't checked out the Late Round Prospect Guide, you should had to Lateround dot com to get it. It includes a longer rankings list than the one that you'll hear on today's show, and it also has a breakdown of what goes into my prospect models, and it profiles every running back and wide receiver who are at this year's combine. And then it also has a section on my year two model, which includes profiles for relevant second year players in the NFL. That's the Late Round Prospect Guide. But guess what. Since NFL draft season is coming to an end, that means fantasy football drafts are getting closer, which means it's time for the Late Round Draft Guide. Last year's Fantasy Sports Writers Association publication of the Year is now available for pre order over on lateround dot com for just nineteen ninety nine. It gives you everything that you need to dominate your season long drafts this year. It'll launch at the end of June and that's when the price will rise by five dollars, so you can pre order that right now for nineteen ninety nine. There's a lot happening with late round fantasy football. Check it all out on lateround dot com. Now let's talk about these rankings. Bjeon Robinson is my one ZHO one in rookie drafts. That has not changed, whether you're in super flex leagues, whether you're in single quarterback leagues. It's Bjeon Robinson. I've said enough about him as a prospect in the past, so let's just focus on this landing spot of Atlanta. It's hard to really be mad at it. The Falcons had the fourth lowest pass rate since twenty eleven last season, and that's despite having a losing record. Their pass rate when games were within six points or neutral game scripts was six to lowest since twenty eleven. They want to run the football, and we can say what we want about Arthur Smith, but they were effective running the ball last year. Tyler Algier was six best in the league last year and yards after contact per attempt. That's according to Pro Football Focus. Caleb Puntley ranked tenth, Corderyl Patterson was top thirty, and all three of those running backs were top fifteen in number five or success rate metric that measures the percentage of positive expected points run made by a running back. So you could definitely argue that the Falcons didn't need Bjon Robinson to have a good run game. But this is fantasy football. I don't care about all that. Robinson is going to be a workhorse back in a run heavy offense, all while being able to capture a pretty big target share because the competition at pass catchers lacking. It's not very deep. They have Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and not much else. Right now. For twenty twenty three, my projections have Robinson at RB five, but I think there's a very easy argument to make that he could be the RB two in fantasy football from a rankings perspective, behind Christian McCaffrey. We're worried about the long term with Dynasty, sure, but that just goes to show how good things are looking for b Jon Robinson right now. He's a near ninety ninth percentile player in my prospect model. Players ranked that high have insane hit rates. Robinson is your one oh one. If you were to tell me before the draft that I'd have Jamir Gibbs as my one h two in rookie drafts, I wouldn't be that surprised. I'd probably assume that Jackson Smith and Jigba fell in the draft and that he fell to a pretty annoying landing spot. But if you were to tell me that I'd have Gibbs in a tier of his own, I would have been surprised. But that's where we're at I won't reiterate the things that I've been saying about Gibbs on the show for the last two weeks. I think the best breakdown I can give you guys happened on episode seven hundred and sixty. But I do think re emphasizing the draft capital point is important here. Draft capital is an input in my model because it matters pre draft, Gibbs was expected to go maybe in the late first, early second round. When you look at him there, and you look at his profile there and compare it to backs who have gone in that range historically, it's a little bit frightening. You get comps like Giovanni Bernard, these smaller backs who were solid in the NFL, but they lack the volume that we want in fantasy football, largely because of their size, and size does matter. I did studies on this of the offseason. You can check one of them out over on Lateround dot Com in the newsletter archive. But the difference with Gibbs going twelfth overall versus thirty second overall is massive, not just because he gets a much nicer score my Trusty Prospect model, but because he becomes a pretty clear outlier. He's now more like Christian McCaffrey, who has the second best prospect score in that model than he is Giovanni. Bernard McCaffrey was a better prospect than Gibbs. Don't get me wrong, but the association should make you feel better about Jamir Gibbs. Gibbs, his value in Dynasty should appreciate well year over year. I think he's the clear one oh two in this class now, and I'd confidently take him ahead of all the wide receivers. I then have Jackson Smith and Jigba in his own tier after Gibbs. He came in with the best prospect score a wide receiver in my model, and I do have him in his own tier as a result. So three tiers so far with three players. That's not a normal thing to happen. Now, this isn't the best landing spot for JSN. No one should be selling it that way. The Seahawks already have DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and they're willing to be a balanced team. They're not necessarily projected to have some insane pass rate like the Chiefs. That's all a problem. I would expect the Seahawks to run a lot more eleven personnel. Now that they have JSN, they haven't had a good third wide receiver. Their offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, is from the Sean McVay coaching tree, and McVeigh loves himself some three wide sets. The problem that JSN could face in year one is that Tyler Lockett could still play ahead of him, which means JSN, at least to start the year, may not be as full time of a player as we'd want him to be. We know he can dominate in the slot, and i'd assume that we see them move their wideouts around the formation. But it's not like Tyler Lockett is Nico Collins. Nothing against Nico Collins, it's just that Tyler Lockett is really good. Now. Lockett's possibly gone in twenty twenty four, though I don't necessarily expect that to happen. He's at least going to be thirty one this year and thirty two next year though, so JSN has a good shot to overtake him either this season or in the next season, as long as the talent is there, and we think the talent is there, And that's what you have to remind yourself of here, JSN to me is the best wide receiver talent in this class. He's gonna win like Keenan Allen at the NFL level, or that's what we hope, And there's a chance that where he wins and how he wins translate to the highest target shair on that team as soon as twenty twenty four. I'd highly doubt that that happens this year, but with Lockett getting older and DK Metcalf seeing more down the field targets and red zone looks, those higher valued looks in fantasy, JSN could beat him in target share as a second year player. I definitely think that's in his range of outcomes. So I wouldn't overthink this landing spot too much. If a wide receiver can ball out, he's gonna ball out. It could have been a spot where JSN could see more obvious work, but you're buying the talent here above anything else. Now things start to get a little bit more interesting. After JSN. I think Jordan Addison is next. Before the draft, I talked about Addison's perfect landing spot being Minnesota, and that's exactly where he got drafted, and it's still perfect. He doesn't have to be the alpha in that offense, and the Vikings can line him up in the slot while getting him some work on the perimeter. Two. At his size, he's probably going to take advantage of the slot most in the NFL. Not only that, but he was far more productive at PITT than at USC, and at PITT he lined up in the slot about three times as often as he did at USC. I think Addison's an easy candidate to be the best rookie wide receiver in fantasy football this year. The Vikings aren't very deep at pass catcher. He could walk in and see up to a twenty percent target chair in that offense pretty easily, and it's an offense that ranked fourth highest in neutral script pass rate last year, which was Kevin O'Connell's first and only year as head coach. Addison also had the second best score in my prospect model at wide receiver, so slotting him here makes sense from that perspective too. But in this same tier, I do have Quentin Johnson and Ja Flowers, and I'm gonna go with the model by putting QJ behind Addison, and then I've got Flowers after that. Quentin Johnson has a much better projection for this season than Flowers. Does not that I'm telling you to just fade Flowers, but the Chargers offense projects to be much more pass heavy than the Ravens, even though the Ravens will be more pass heavy this year without Greg Roman in the picture. But as we know, Mike Williams hasn't been able to stay healthy and both him and Keenan Allen are getting up there in age. Pairing Johnston with Justin Herbert could bring some fireworks, given his yards after the catchability and his ability to get down the field. That's something that the Chargers have desperately been needing. I think Johnson's a more volatile prospect than Flowers, though, but I'm still a believer in Rashad Bateman, who's flowers teammate now, because Bateman had one of the best yards per route run rates in football last year. I think Johnston is set up better for year one. And yes, this is dynasty, we care more than just about the first year of these guys career. But the thing is we want these players to get better in value year over year. I see that happening more for Quentin Johnston than Zay Flowers. The opportunity is there at least there are more outs for him given his situation, and he also had a slightly better prospect score. If you want to go Flowers, though, be my guest. I tier these players for a reason. All of these guys are relatively interchangeable in rank, but I would favor going in this order. Now. My fifth tier consists of four players, and honestly, it's gotten to the point where I'm just trying to get exposure to each of these guys in different rookie drafts. I'm not overweight on any of them, but I haven't faded any of them either. Anthony Richardson is part of this group. In single quarterback leagues. If we're talking super flex, I think Richardson is your number two overall player. He's the guy who has a chance to break Fantasy Football and everyone's sitting there concerned about his floor. But if he's starting, his floor is better than anyone else is in this class at quarterback. With mobile and athletic quarterbacks, the floor is not the problem. It's the ceiling. They need good passing numbers to be a true difference maker. Richardson is now a pretty safe bet because he went in the top five even for his rookie season. If you look back to twenty eleven at the quarterbacks who had top fifteen draft capital and simply ran the ball five or more times per game as a rookie, it's a pretty freaking good list. You get justin Fields, Deshaun Watson, RG three, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Cam Newton. Fields was the worst of that group. Year one, he averaged about eleven standard Fantasy points per game, but Deshaun Watson was at twenty four during his limited time. RG three was at twenty one. Kyler Murray and Josh Allen were above seventeen points per game, and if you remember, Cam Newton was a beast his rookie year, averaging over twenty three standard Fantasy points per game. Richardson comes out as my QB twelve in my early projections, and that should give you some confidence in him being the QB one in dynasty from this class. We haven't really seen a quarterback like him before. He could really wreck fantasy football now. If you'd rather not go the quarterback route, which I totally understand, you could also go with either Zach Sharbonay or Devon a Chain. One of those guys I expected to be in this tier post draft. One of them I definitely did not. Now, if you want my detailed thoughts on Sharbonay, I think last week covers that I talked about him on the post Draft show, and then I broke down that situation in Seattle in the Mailbag Episode two. Long story short. Sharboney does things that Kenneth Walker doesn't do well, or at least we're hoping that sharbon Ay can based on what he did in college. I've seen Sharboney drop a lot in rookie drafts. I got him at the two zero four spot in a super flex draft last week. I think it's almost wang Landing spot too much, because at the very least Sharbona is a handcuff. We'd all agree there. But then you layer on the draft capitol and what he brings to the table, and it's easy to see that he's probably gonna get some work in that offense, whether on the ground at times to help Kenneth Walker or through the air and possibly even goal line work. So there's gonna be some flex appeal for Sharbonay from a median outcome standpoint, And then there's the possible upside of a Kenneth Walker injury. If Kenneth Walker weren't in the picture at all, Sharbonne would be a top three or four single quarterback rookie pick. Sharpon Ay can still step into that role with a Walker injury or just a one week injury. Doesn't have to be a season long one. Running Backs get hurt. This is just what happens, so he can be sort of this flex player with upside. That's as long as you like the talent, you like Sharbonay the player, and you believe in him. I don't think there's anything wrong with that kind of player in this range. Because Devon a Chain, he has some question marks. Two. I did not expect to have a Chain ranked in this tier before the draft started, but he fell into the literal one spot where his size may not matter as much as it typically would now. I want to be clear here because I think this is misunderstood a lot. The running back size thing isn't necessarily about ability. It's a trend based on what coaches do. We don't see running backs this size get a ton of work since twenty eleven and maybe even beyond. I just look back to twenty eleven. We haven't seen a single running back below one hundred and ninety pounds get to one hundred carries in a single season. With that being said, a Chain has a real shot to do that, and I don't think this is just me betting on some outlier. Not only is his prospect profile just better than basically any of those smaller backs, but this outside zone scheme is perfect for his speed. We've seen that in this same offense with Raheem Mostert and with Elijah Mitchell back in San Francisco and most Are last year. Even both of those guys are not huge backs. Moster was one hundred and ninety five pounds coming out. Now, I don't think a Chain is likely to be an RB one in fantasy football, but in RB two, that's definitely in his range of outcomes, even on limited touches, because this is an offense where he can be unbelievably a efficient There's so much speed everywhere. And honestly, this is a little bit subjective, but Mike McDaniel strikes me as a coach who isn't going to limit a player's touches just because of what a scale says. So if you'd like to go with Devon Achan at the top of this tier. I can totally understand that, and the same goes for Dalton Kinkaid, the last guy in this tier. I sent a newsletter about this last week, but Kincaid was not the top tight end in my new Prospect model. Sam Laporta was. But there's a big caveat here. That was only because Kinkaid didn't have testing numbers, so things got thrown off a little bit. If you assume that he'd get to the one hundred and five speed score mark, he was definitely the tight end one in this class. In fact, if you make that assumption, he'd be the third best prospect that the model is seen, behind only Kyle Pitts and Dallas Goddard. This dates back to twenty fifteen. The model really loved Dallas Goddard and right below him is Mark Andrews and George Kittle. For real, we know tight ends don't appreciate all that well in value who compared to running backs and wide receivers, but Kincaid could easily be an exception to that rule if you want to draft him over the others in this tier. That makes total sense. If you're in a tight end premium league or one where more than one tight end is being started, you can draft him even higher. I don't expect him to be a traditional tight end in Buffalo. He's gonna get a lot of slot work too. No, I don't think there's a lot of surprises with my rankings up until this point. They're fairly choky, but that's sort of how things played out this year. After that group of players, things get really really interesting. In single quarterback leagues. You could look at Bryce Young or CJ. Stroud, and I think there's a pretty big tier after that. Kincaid tier that includes those quarterbacks along with some of the Round two wide receivers like Jayden Reid, Jonathan Mingo, Marvin Mintz, and Kendre Miller is part of that tier for me too, as is Sam Laporta, who I think is the better prospect compared to Michael Meyer. I would rather have Laporta than Mayor straight up. Now. I talked about a lot of those players over the last handful of weeks, so I won't dig super deep. You can get their profiles and how I'm thinking about them in the Prospect Guide or just ask me on a mailbag episode. But that's where I'm at, about a round and a half through single quarterback drafts. I think it's gonna end up being a pretty wild year for rookies and I'm here for it. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by stretching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found it. Do'e fit to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone. Remember to check out the prospect and the draft guide over on lateround dot com. Otherwise, I'll talk to you later this week with the Mailbag episode.