Fed Rate Cut in March in Doubt; High Tech Earnings Continue

Good morning. 0:00:03.080 --> 0:00:05.920 I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the 0:00:05.960 --> 0:00:07.440 stories we're following today. 0:00:08.080 --> 0:00:10.560 It is a day after the Federal Reserve held interest 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:14.240 rates steady steady for a fourth straight time. Now the 0:00:14.280 --> 0:00:17.919 focus continues to be on when the first rate cut 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:19.880 will come from Jay Powell and company. 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:22.840 The FED chair all but took March off the board. 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:26.239 I don't think it's likely that the committee will reach 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:28.240 a level of confidence by the time of the March 0:00:28.320 --> 0:00:31.120 meeting to identify March as the time to do that. 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:35.879 But that's to be seen. So I wouldn't call you 0:00:35.880 --> 0:00:37.720 know when you say, when you ask me about in 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:41.320 the near term, I'm hearing that as March, I would say, 0:00:42.120 --> 0:00:44.600 I don't think that's probably not the most likely case, 0:00:44.680 --> 0:00:46.000 or what we would call the base case. 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:50.600 Jay Powell acknowledged the dramatic inflation progress in recent months, 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:53.800 but repeatedly emphasized the need to see more data confirming 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:54.880 that downward trend. 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:58.640 Well, Nathan, reaction still pouring into Jay Powell's news conference. 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:01.400 We got up with the black Rock managing director Jeffrey 0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:04.800 Rosenberg and former New York Fed President and current Bloomberg 0:01:04.840 --> 0:01:06.680 opinion columnist Bill Dudley. 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:09.560 I think that's the story, is it May as a June. 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:10.679 It's not March. 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:13.760 It's pushing back because they don't want to rush into 0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:14.839 a cutting cycle. 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:17.880 I think we could expect quantity of tightening tapering to 0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:19.840 happen sometime probably around the. 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:20.680 First half of this year. 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:23.320 If the inflation is continues along the same course for 0:01:23.640 --> 0:01:25.600 a few more months, then the Fed Reserve is certainly 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:28.240 going to start to cut rates. They're just not absolutely 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:30.640 confident that that's where we're going to be three or 0:01:30.640 --> 0:01:31.360 four months from now. 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:34.600 And that was Black Rock managing director Jeffrey Rosenberg and 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:37.520 former New York Fed President Bill Dudley speaking to us 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:40.440 after the FED decision. FED fund futures now have a 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:43.200 March rate cut down to thirty eight percent. 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:45.559 And now Karen, it is the Bank of England's turn. 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:48.440 The BOE is expected to leave its key lending rated 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:51.120 a sixteen year high. We get more from Bloomberg's Lizzie 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:52.040 Burden in London. 0:01:52.320 --> 0:01:54.200 The other thing that I would watch though, is the 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:58.720 guidance if they drop mentions of further tightening and this 0:01:58.960 --> 0:02:03.160 need to be restrictive for an extended period, that could 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:05.720 be seen as veering away from the hawkish bias, and 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:08.400 if they don't do that, it could be seen as 0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:10.919 the MPC giving market. It's a bit of a slap 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:12.600 on the risk for getting ahead of themselves with the 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:13.400 rate cook bets. 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:17.400 Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden says economists unanimously expect the UK's Central 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:19.520 Bank to leave its key lending rate at five and 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:20.359 a quarter percent. 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:23.280 Well, Nathan, it's also a very busy day for earnings 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:25.239 in Europe, and let's stay in London and get the 0:02:25.320 --> 0:02:27.680 very latest from Bloomberg's creatygupda critty. 0:02:28.080 --> 0:02:30.200 Yeah, Nathan, Karen's some pretty big moves here right here 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:32.919 in London. Shell up over two percent after beating earnings 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:35.160 estimates at three and a half billion dollars, buyback announcement 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:37.480 helping that stock as well, not to mention outstanding trade 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:39.799 in the gas market. Deutsche Bank on the other hand, 0:02:39.880 --> 0:02:42.200 higher and buy about four percent, the German lender saying 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:46.000 it's cutting thirty five hundred jobs to focus there on profitability, 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:47.920 but also a buyback six one hundred and seventy five 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:50.239 million euros on their bound sheet. And Roche on the 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:53.080 other hand, dropping four percent twenty fowty four guidance analysts 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:57.160 are calling quote extremely extremely weak in London, Creaty goop 0:02:57.160 --> 0:02:58.680 to Bloomberg Radio, all right. 0:02:58.600 --> 0:03:00.680 Critty, thank you. Back here in the US, it's another 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:03.640 huge day for big tech earnings. Let's bring in John 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:04.840 Tucker for a preview of that. 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:09.280 John and need to Apple, Amazon meta Platforms all reporting 0:03:09.360 --> 0:03:12.280 the updates. We'll get fresh insights on how the companies 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:14.280 at the heart of the reason rally on Wall Street 0:03:14.280 --> 0:03:18.360 are matching up to lofty expectations. Apple has suffered five 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:21.760 straight sales declines in a row. Analyst Dan Ives at 0:03:21.760 --> 0:03:24.720 Wedbush Securities is focusing on demand in China. 0:03:25.040 --> 0:03:28.080 I think China's actually been relatively stable. I think that's 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:30.920 going to be a breadth of fresh air from Cokin 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:33.799 Cooper Tino on units on services. 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:37.760 Amazon dot COM's results will reveal how the online retailer 0:03:37.960 --> 0:03:42.120 perform during the holiday shopping season and how artificial intelligence 0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:45.680 is impacting demand for cloud computing at Facebook parent meta 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:49.280 platforms may see a continued bounce back from a recovering 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:53.280 ad market and cost cutting. John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio, All. 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:55.320 Right, John, thanks, So we continue to follow New York 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:59.600 Community Bankcorp. Following yesterday's record plunge of thirty eight percent. 0:04:00.040 --> 0:04:02.760 The bank reported a surprise loss yesterday and slashed its 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:07.280 dividend amid growing concerns over commercial property loans. Bloomberg Intelligence 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:10.600 Senior banks analyst Herman Chan says the results are an outlier. 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:14.680 This seems more of a New York community specific issue 0:04:14.720 --> 0:04:18.359 of needing to shore up their balance sheet and facing 0:04:18.960 --> 0:04:21.719 a blip on their credit quality that they need to 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:24.800 you know, and still some more confidence in the market. 0:04:24.800 --> 0:04:27.479 And Bloomberg's Hermann Chan says Moodies may cut the bank's 0:04:27.520 --> 0:04:29.760 credit rating to junk. The stock is up almost one 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:30.680 percent this morning. 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:32.320 Let's turn to policy news. 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:35.920 In Washington, Karen Key Republican senators are exploring dropping demands 0:04:35.920 --> 0:04:39.040 for new border restrictions and backing a standalone aid package 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:40.400 for Ukraine and Israel. 0:04:40.440 --> 0:04:42.159 Bloomberg Zed Baxter has the story. 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:45.760 Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says he and Majority Leader Chuck 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:47.000 Schumer agreed. 0:04:46.640 --> 0:04:52.280 Two friends in the middle of a huge fight Israel Ukraine, 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:53.480 they need help. 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:57.440 We on a democratic side, are pursuing getting all of 0:04:57.480 --> 0:05:05.080 this done. Ukraine is humanitarian aid, Indo Pacific border together. 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:07.840 Getting it through the House will be another story. Ukraine 0:05:07.920 --> 0:05:11.120 is warning it is facing a critical shortage of artillery shells. 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:13.320 Ed Baxter, Bloomberg. 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:13.960 Radio, all right and thanks. 0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:16.719 Elsewhere on Capitol Hell, the CEOs of five social media 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:19.839 giants got a grilling over their platforms impact on kids' 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:23.280 mental health and sexual exploitation. Members of the Senate Judiciary 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:26.840 Committee focused most of their attention on meta platforms. Republican 0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:30.240 Josh Holly had this to say to CEO Mark Zuckerberg. 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:32.800 Would you like now to apologize to the victims who 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:33.799 have been harmed by your product? 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:34.720 Show them the pictures. 0:05:35.720 --> 0:05:38.000 Would you like to apologize for what you've done to 0:05:38.040 --> 0:05:38.760 these good people? 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:41.640 At that point, Zuckerberg turned to families in the audience 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:44.400 and apologize for what they've been through. The committee is 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:47.039 looking for momentum on a bill that would target child's 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:54.000 sexual exploitation online. Time now for look at some of 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:55.880 the other stories making news around the world. For that, 0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:59.520 we're joined by Bloomberg's Amy Morris Samy, Good Morning, Good morning, Karen. 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:02.440 Was a rare bipartisan vote in the House, which has 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:05.560 passed a seventy eight billion dollar business and child tax 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:08.160 break bill that would provide a boon for US companies 0:06:08.160 --> 0:06:12.520 with large capital and domestic research expenditures. Republican Jason Smith 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:14.480 of Missouri expressed his support. 0:06:14.720 --> 0:06:19.680 Each of these policies will help American businesses grow, create jobs, 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:23.119 and sharpen their competitive advantage against China. 0:06:23.200 --> 0:06:25.560 The measure now heads to the Senate, where Republicans are 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:29.040 pushing back against a provision that allows some people with 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:32.800 no taxable income to collect the child tax credit. Senate 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:35.640 majority leader Chuck Schumer says they're working on a deal. 0:06:35.760 --> 0:06:38.680 I support the tax bill, as I've stated before, I'm 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:41.360 working with Senator Widen to figure out the best way forward. 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:44.120 Whitehouse says if it passes the Senate, the President will 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:47.520 sign it. Negotiations are advancing for an agreement to pause 0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:51.480 the Israel Hamas war and free civilian hostages captured by Hamas. 0:06:51.839 --> 0:06:54.640 Sources tell Bloomberg that conversations are still in the early 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:58.080 stages and a breakthrough is not expected in the coming days, 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:01.560 but the proposal, which would mount to the longest pause 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:05.400 and the biggest hostage release since the war began October seventh, 0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:08.880 has a realistic chance of success and could lead to 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:12.200 a longer term cease fire. The White House says it 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:16.280 is monitoring the warning from FBI Director Christopher Ray about 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:21.080 Chinese hackers preparing to target critical US infrastructure. At today's 0:07:21.120 --> 0:07:25.040 White House briefing, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said 0:07:25.040 --> 0:07:27.880 the administration prioritizes cybersecurity. 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:31.239 This is something we monitor very closely all the time, 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:33.200 and we take all these threats seriously. 0:07:33.240 --> 0:07:36.080 You have to, Kirby says, one element of critical infrastructure 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:38.120 in the United States is a free and fair election. 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:42.720 No matter how fast technology changes, AM radio has remained 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:46.520 a reliable tool for spreading information. Sean Voskell of the 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:50.360 American Association of Retired Persons says there are still plenty 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:52.160 of technology deserts. 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:54.400 Many people don't have the high speed Internet yet, so 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:56.880 they rely on their AM radio to get through information. 0:07:57.120 --> 0:08:00.760 The carmakers are considering removing free AM radio, replacing it 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:05.080 with streaming and subscription services that would require fees. FEMA, though, 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:09.480 says getting free, reliable information in times of emergency is crucial. 0:08:10.000 --> 0:08:12.120 Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you 0:08:12.160 --> 0:08:14.800 want it with Bloomberg News now, I Ami Morris in, 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:15.600 this is Bloomberg. 0:08:15.680 --> 0:08:17.400 Karen all Right, Amy Thank you. We do bring you 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:20.160 news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio, but now 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:22.080 you can get the latest news on demand, and that 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:25.800 means whenever you want it. Just subscribe to Bloomberg News 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:27.520 Now and you can get the latest headlines right at 0:08:27.520 --> 0:08:30.240 the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:32.800 You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:36.880 the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com plus apples, Spotify, 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:43.959 and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now for 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:46.360 the Bloomberg Sports Update with John Stashour. 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:49.480 John Ken, the news coach of the Seattle Seahawks, is 0:08:49.600 --> 0:08:52.800 half the age of the guy he's replacing. Pete Carroll, 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:56.400 departed at the age of seventy two. Mike McDonald replaces him. 0:08:56.559 --> 0:08:59.280 He's thirty six, becomes the youngest coach in the NFL. 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:02.680 He comes Baltimore, where he was the defensive coordinator. The 0:09:02.679 --> 0:09:05.240 only NFL team yet to hire a new coach, the 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:09.520 Washington Commanders. A deal struck between the PGA Tour and 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:13.800 the Strategic Sports Group that includes Mets owner Steve Cohen, 0:09:13.840 --> 0:09:17.319 Red Sox owner John Henry, Falcons owner Arthur Glank, the 0:09:17.360 --> 0:09:20.720 Tour gets a three billion dollar infusion, so of purses 0:09:20.800 --> 0:09:23.680 are expected to go up and they will launch PGA 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:28.160 Tour enterprises where the players will have equity. Meanwhile, that 0:09:28.240 --> 0:09:31.600 PGA Tour deal with Saudi Arabia is still not official 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:35.160 and the Pebble Beach Tournament begins today. Nick Dunlap recently 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:38.360 won the American Express Golf as an amateur. He'll make 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:41.760 his professional debut. Damian Lillard, back in Portland, where he 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:44.920 spent eleven season, scored twenty five points. His new team, 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:47.480 the Milwaukee Bucks, lost to the Blazers in the rowe 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:50.240 and two with the new coach Doc Rivers on the bench. 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:53.360 Kevin Durant returned to Brooklyn, where he spent three and 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:56.520 a half seasons. He scored thirty three. The Suns beat 0:09:56.679 --> 0:09:59.720 the nets Kawhi Leonards scored thirty one. The Clippers beat 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:03.479 the Wizards Flippers of one fourteen of the last seventeen 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:07.840 West Leaning Minnesota blew out Dallas by thirty four. Cleveland 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:10.960 won eleven last twelve. Donovan Mitchell scored forty five in 0:10:10.960 --> 0:10:13.839 a win over Detroit. Miami beat Zacramento to in the 0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:17.360 seventeen losing Street Johns Dashedward Bloomberg Sports. 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:22.120 From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:27.079 Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias exam the Bloomberg 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:31.280 Business Appen Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:10:32.280 --> 0:10:33.600 Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. 0:10:33.800 --> 0:10:36.480 Not so fast on rate cuts, It seems to be 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:39.680 the message Jaypowllin company wanted to deliver to markets. After 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:43.880 holding interest rates steady at the Federal Reserves First Policy 0:10:43.880 --> 0:10:45.640 Meeting of twenty twenty four, we. 0:10:45.679 --> 0:10:48.120 Believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak 0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:51.600 for this titaning cycle, and that if the economy evolves 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:55.120 broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:58.360 dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. 0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:02.400 When that point will be, that's the question. For more 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:05.520 on the Fed decision, we're joined by Bloomberg opinion columnist 0:11:06.000 --> 0:11:08.720 Marcus Ashworth. So, Marcus, do we need to start thinking 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:10.680 about May rather than March? 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:15.200 No, I think we still have to expect that a 0:11:15.280 --> 0:11:19.439 move could come in March. It's two more CPI numbers obviously, 0:11:19.520 --> 0:11:25.080 payrolls times two as well, So I think the chances 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:29.240 are less that there will be a March rate cut 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.480 obviously they quite clearly say it's not their base case, 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:35.520 but they were very careful not to rule it out. 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:37.560 So it's data dependent. 0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:41.080 The FED has made is ready and unclear that they 0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:44.040 will be cutting rates this year. Does it really matter 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:46.560 they kind of cutch him in March rather than May. 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:50.320 Probably not in the greatest scheme of things. They're taking 0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:54.160 the time right. So if the numbers come in much weaker, 0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:58.079 bear in my big CPI revision on February ninth or so. 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:00.600 I think they'll be a payroll revis at the start 0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:01.360 of the year as well. 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:03.080 If either of those come in, you know. 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:06.559 Dramatically changed and weaker, then I think March will come 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:10.760 back onto the agenda. So yeah, probably may, but hey 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:12.040 could still be much. 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:14.400 Well, what do you think is the risk that we 0:12:14.520 --> 0:12:19.240 do see major revisions to that inflation data that's coming up. 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:23.280 Big, and I think that's why Walla has flagged it up. 0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:26.840 The revisions were quite sharply down last year. Doesn't mean 0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:30.040 it'll be followed through again, but I think the chances are. 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:32.959 Reasonable that they are, particularly. 0:12:32.480 --> 0:12:35.000 If you look at the pc D edge and the 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:39.680 GDP report, it's running around two CPI is a full 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:40.840 percentage point higher. 0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:42.440 Something's out of whack there. 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:45.360 Things are always slightly out of whack, but just a 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:48.120 bit more out of whack than usual. So the chances 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:51.040 are that that gap narrows is reasonably high, I think, 0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:54.520 and that will only make it more prevalent on the 0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:57.760 FED to start thinking, well, they've done their job. Inflation 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:00.320 has been beaten. Yes, the economy is strong. It needs 0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:02.800 to be strong, but that doesn't mean that they have to, 0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:05.920 you know, keep rates clearly too strong. 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:06.440 Than they need to be. 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:11.520 So you put that into the equation and maybe we 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:14.360 get an earlier rate cut. But you know, I think 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:16.920 the Fed's very content to take its time over this, 0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:21.280 and I think that you know clearly there's shelter problems, 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:23.600 and the problems pompartn you. But then we know shelter 0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:27.160 as a component in CPI is very much lagging, and 0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:29.000 when any of that turns, which looks like it has, 0:13:29.440 --> 0:13:32.440 that will push CPI down substantially over the next year 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:34.719 or two anyway, So we don't want to get a 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:36.360 situation we get close to deflation. 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:38.640 What do you think of there's a risk of a 0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:41.760 problem if the Fed does keep interest rates high for 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:42.480 too long. 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:46.240 Well, I mean, look, we just saw with New York 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:48.240 Community Bank or I mean, you know there is there 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:52.040 some nasty stuff in the commercial real estate. Also Japanese 0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:56.000 Bank and Azora gets covered by New York not a 0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:57.680 part of the US commercial property. 0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:00.200 So there are you know, we saw the. 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:04.840 Silicon Valley shakeout last year and the common problems as 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:08.240 the signature obviously is feeding through to the old Community 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:11.079 Bank corps. But I mean, you know this is an issue. 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:14.440 There's no necessary, real need, I think, to make interest 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:18.120 rates pain any more than it's it needs to be. 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:19.080 It's done its job. 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.640 It's fed through, and I think you know transitory is 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:24.960 now two or three years a definition rather than a year. 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:28.000 But certainly I think we've see most effects Pytrough. So 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:31.640 the Fed's got it under control. Very impressive behavior from power. 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:34.080 I wish the same could be said of the British 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:35.480 Central Bag, but that's another story. 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:38.360 Now let's get to that story in our last minute here. 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:40.280 Do you think the Bank of England's going to follow 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:42.440 the Fed's lead when it comes to pushing back at 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:43.680 great cut expectations? 0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:44.880 We do have about a minute left. 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:47.480 Yeah, they definitely will push back. A question is how 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:48.640 much they'll push back. 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:51.720 They need more time, and we have a higher wage 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:56.160 problem in the UK. It's residual, it's sticky, it is 0:14:56.240 --> 0:15:00.240 feeding through. We are have beaten inflation, it's just not 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:02.720 showing up quite as evidently as is in the States. 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:03.520 It will do. 0:15:04.000 --> 0:15:06.720 I don't think there's any any real outline now in 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:09.960 the UK inflation terms. But you know, central banks are 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:13.080 paid to be cautious and drag the heels. That's exactly 0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:14.600 what banking is going to do. What we want to 0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:18.000 see is that there were three Hawks voting for another 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:21.480 rate hike last time, madness. I think let's see at 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:23.360 least one or two of those chase the minor go 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:27.320 back into a neutral stance, and possibly one will vote. 0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:27.720 For a rape cup. 0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:32.080 This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:35.640 story's making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:38.600 Look for us on your podcast feed at six am 0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:42.320 Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you 0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:43.560 get your podcasts. 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:46.360 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.000 am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.880 in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington. 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:55.280 Bloomberg one six to one in Boston and Bloomberg ninety 0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:56.640 sixty in San Francisco. 0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:00.200 Our flagship New York station is also available on your 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:05.600 Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:09.120 Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, SERRIUSXM, 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:12.320 the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:14.440 I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:17.400 Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:32.760 need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak