894: Early-Season Schedule Analysis

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zachera JJ Zacher, what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and ninety four of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. This episode's a little controversial every year because it's a topic that not everyone believes in. That topic being schedule analysis. At the start of the season, there's a lot of stuff that we don't know. I mean, this is being recorded in July. Some things are gonna change over the next month, let alone the next football season. Injuries happen, players outperform expectation, things will change. But I don't think that we should stop predicting things just because they're a little bit unpredictable. Like the late rounds of your fantasy football drafts are pretty unpredictable too. Does that mean that you don't have your favorite players there, or that you shouldn't have your favorite players. Part of the reason that schedule analysis can be iffy is because people tend to look at previous season numbers and make the assumption that those numbers will exist the following season. That would be like taking the fantasy finishes from the previous season and not adjusting at all for what happened in the draft, what happened in free agency, and what happened with coaching changes. Projections are going to be more accurate than previous season finishes, and that's what this is all about. I've found this exercise to be helpful in the past. I'm gonna keep doing it until it's no longer helpful. But I like to look at early season schedule for teams, the early season being where the least amount of things have changed with injuries and such. I like to look and see if any passing attacks or rushing attacks might have an easier or tougher time at the start of the season. Because how a player kicks off a season that's important. A lot of fantasy managers will have an anchoring bias to what went on early on in a season. They prop up that play the value not just from the beginning of the season, but even if he falls off a little bit through the entire season. And then if we spend an early round pick on a guy who's not coming through after the first few weeks of the season, we're gonna start questioning that player, even if it might be due to the tough matchups that he faced. So today it's all about early season's schedule analysis. It's a quick episode, but I think it's a helpful one. We want our fantasy assets to get off to good starts. This can play a role in that. Now, before digging in, I want to send another reminder to check out Underdog Fantasy. There are tons of best ball drafts going on over there, and those drafts come in all shapes and sizes, especially this time of year. You can play best ball Mania, but there are tournaments in best ball formats with lower entry fees than that too, and you can use all the content that I've been doing with becoming a best ball bro to help you crush those drafts. If you've never played an underdog, I've got an offer for you. New users can go to Underdog Fantasy dot com and sign up with promo code Late Round. When you use that promo code and you make a deposit, you'll get both a deposit offer and a free late Round draft guide. That draft guy will be emailed to you once you sign up and you make a deposit. That's a twenty five dollars value for absolutely free, So go check it out. Underdog Fantasy dot Com promo code late round. A team that I've been very bolish on versus costs throughout this offseason has been the Tennessee Titans. I think there's a real chance that we see a big change within this offense year over year because Brian Callahan is stepping in. He's been a pass heavy coordinator in the past, even before Joe Burrow got to Cincinnati, and everything Tennessee's done this offseason has pointed to them being a more past friendly team. That's led me to drafting a lot of DeAndre Hopkins, a lot of that ambiguous backfield, and then I think Will Levis is a late round dart throw. With that being said, their first month of games not very good Tennessee. He opens things up against the Bears, Jets, Packers, and Dolphins. When looking at the secondary rankings over at Sharp Football Analysis and Pro Football Focus and taking the average of those rankings, the Titans have the worst four game stretch to start the year of any team in football. That's when looking at their opposing secondaries. Two of those secondaries average out to be top four ones, the other two are top twelve ones. Then Tennessee has a bye. Now, I'm still fine taking Titans because not only is there some variance with this stuff, but the rest of their season looks really good on paper. I also think they're just generally undervalued this year. DeAndre Hopkins at pass catcher especially, and I like Tajy Spears a lot too. What this does mean is, I think in a managed season long single quarterback league, maybe you'll want to pass on Will Levis and pick them up during the team's bye week. It's just a thought. Now. On the flip side, Green Bay's passing attack could get off to a really, really high start in twenty twenty four from Week one to week nine. So every week up until they're by they won't face a single team who ranks higher than fourteenth and my little aggregate method of ranking secondaries, and to start the year, they'll get two bottom twelve secondaries and back to back weeks when they face the Eagles and the Colts. Again. This is by looking up multiple secondary rankings to get multiple inputs on who's good and who isn't, so that obviously makes the passing attack attractive in fantasy football, we've all had problems figuring out what this is going to look like at wide receiver for Green Bay this year. But if we get some locked in pass catching pieces there who aren't leaving the field, they should be able to outplay ADP during the front half of the season. But the real winner, Jordan Love. This makes him pretty attractive. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he's a solid QB one through the first couple of months of the season, and that whole offense will benefit as a result. Now I might regret saying this, but don't sleep on Pittsburgh's passing attack to start the season either. I mean, within context, of course, their first four games of this season rank is the best four matchups compared to any other team in football. They'll get the Falcons, Broncos, Chargers, and then the Colts. None of those teams rank in the top half of either secondary ranking system that I looked at. Now, I definitely worry about how high scoring those games may end up being the Falcons. That's kind of fun and intriguing to at Arthur Smith reunion and the Falcons have a new look offense. But that's in week one. You're not gonna be trotting out a Pittsburgh quarterback in Week one outside of a super flex league. Now, George Pickens, maybe Pat Fryarmouth that's a different story. But they're the only reliable pass catchers entering Week one that you're probably gonna want to play for Pittsburgh. Then it's Denver, who could be iffy offensively, and then it's the Chargers who could be run heavy and pretty slow. So the offensive environment they're not great, but the matchups on paper they are. Now. Russell Wilson started camp banged up, but whoever's under center for Pittsburgh in Week one there may be some streaming allure for them. We just may not be able to take advantage of what could be a fun Week one matchup because we're not gonna feel comfortable playing a Pittsburgh quarterback to start our fantasy season. Now, another team that I've liked in Best Ball this offseason is Jacksonville, and unfortunately, just like Tennessee, the Jags opening to the season not easy at all. Jacksonville gets Miami, Cleveland, Buffalo, Houston, and Indianapolis to kick off their season. Each of those teams have a win total of at least eight and a half. They're starting their season off where their average opponent through their first six games has a win total of nine point three. That's an average. They're the only team aside from the Titans, who have zero opponents through the first six weeks with a win total under eight and a half, and Tennessee as a bye during that period, so they're only facing five teams now. On top of that during the first two weeks of the season, the secondaries that Jacksonville's gonna face not easy at all. When combining PFF and Sharp Football Analysis is rankings, they'll get two top five secondaries, so you have to worry a bit about that passing attack. And then I think that because of their opponents, you may have to worry a little bit about gamescript that could impact someone like Travis etn Definitely keep that in mind when you draft some Jags in your season long leagues. Jaden Daniels has been a target of mine, and thankfully he should have a hot start to a season, or I should say the schedule lines up for it to be more helpful than hurtful. Washington's first four opponents are the Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals, and Cardinals. The Buccaneers will probably have an above average secondary this year, but the Giants, Bengals, and Cardinals. They're all beatable, especially the Giants and the Cardinals. They rank in the bottom two in PFF secondary rankings. Now things are tougher after Week four, but by that point we'll have a better idea of the kind of fantasy asset that we have in Jayden Daniels. We'll be able to make a smarter decision. Then that passing attack based on schedule could get off to a hot start. That makes him an even clearer low end QB one grab in your season long league. This year, the Chargers start their season with back to back games against teams with win totals of six and a half. They get the Raiders and then they get the Panthers. Now, I think the Raiders defense this year should be fine and that game projects to be lower scoring with few plays run. But positive game scripts for the Chargers means good things for their running backs, whether that's Gus Edwards, JK. Dobbins, Kamani Viydell will probably get more clarity over the next month. You guys know that I've been Intovidell this offseason and I'm continuing to draft him at a late round cost despite him playing with the second team. Gus Edwards is currently banged up, so JK. Dobbins has been their top back during the early parts of camp. I've thrown darts his way too, and I think that if you go with a more zero RB approach, this backfield does make some sense to help you get off on the right foot because those matchups could produce a lot of volume on the ground. And then the final call out that I want to talk about on today's show, the Seattle Seahawks, specifically the Seattle Seahawks running backs. To kick off twenty twenty four, the Seahawks get the Broncos and then the Patriots. Those teams have two of the lowest projected wind totals in football of five and a half and four and a half. A potential positive game script is going to absolutely benefit the Seattle running backs and the guy that I've been drafting a ton in best Ball, Zach Charbonnet. He might get extra run than usual in those games. I'm still giving him some shot to just be a favorite of this new coaching staff, like that's in his range of outcomes. But even if he is the clear cut RB two this year, just like last year, a nice positive script will allow him to get more work than usual. So this early season's schedule analysis really just makes me feel even better about Sharbonnay as a late round pick. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere. Podcast can be found in difference to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB, and make sure you subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel. I've been going live frequently on there and we have videos on there as well of the other podcasts that you listen to in this speed, so go subscribe. It's YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. Thanks for listening everyone. I've got a slight change to the schedule this week. We're becoming a best Ball bro. It's gonna be out Thursday instead of Wednesday, so I'll talk to you then you