394: Mailbag 7/24/20

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J.

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Speaker 2: Zacher reson What's up everyone?

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com. And this is episode three hundred and ninety four of the Late Round podcast with many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 1: Before get into this week's questions, I've got some exciting news. For years, Number Fire's premium subscription services provided users with expert analysis, survivor pool tools, and most importantly the Fantasy Football Draft Kid and that was all for up to forty nine ninety nine a month. Now, as a way of saying thank you to the community for years of support, Number five is rolling out a new premium package for just nine to ninety nine per month that will provide you with all of the sports betting and daily fantasy tools that you need year round. And the best part is that expert analysis, those survivor tools, and yes even there, they're all now free. That means you can get the number fire algorithm's rankings for your fantasy football draft for free, and you can also get my rankings by heading to number fire dot com, so go to number fire dot com check out the new and improved site and take advantage of the new premium package. The first question this week is from Twitter's from at B Kellner, how much do your ranks typically change based on preseason games? With no preseason this year, what will you do differently? One thing we typically can understand a little bit better from the preseason, Aside from whether or not a player looks, the part is just general usage. If a guy is playing a lot with the first team when we thought that he was a second teamer or a second stringer, or if a running back rotation becomes a little bit clearer, then that can change rankings. But like most things in fantasy football, it's important that we don't overdo things. I never really watched the preseason and drastically change the way that I viewed a player. So while it's a deal, this change in not having a preseason is some sort of deal, I don't think it's the biggest deal in the world regarding how we should view and evaluate players. It just means we'll have to be extra careful when reading what teams are saying and what's being reported. The next question is from at the IDP guy when evaluating Julian Edelman for twenty twenty, what are you most considering Cam Newton's past production with slot receivers or the Patriots history with them? And then I also got one from at SID four four, three, five, six, three sixty six and it asked Julian Edelman was the wide receiver eight last season, all of a sudden, he's available in the seventh round. Now, in no way as Cam Newton comparable to Tom Brady, but should he fall this far, he kind of looks like a steal to me, what are your thoughts on this? So I guess I got to talk about Julian Edelman. He was the wide receiver seven overall last year in PPR formats, and then he was the wide receiver nine on a points per game basis unless you include Antonio Brown, and then he was the wide receiver ten. What we know about Edelman and how he's been used historically in this Patriots offense is that he's He's a high volume receiver with a low average depth of target who also doesn't get targeted in the end zone a lot. Edelman hasn't had a single season with double digit end zone targets. When fourteen different wide receivers hit that mark just last year, that combination is essentially telling you that he needs volume to thrive or to really outperform his ADP. It's unlikely that Edelman is going to play a different type of role in that Patriots offense, so we need that volume because we know he's likely not going to elevate his fantasy production with crazy high yardage totals or a crazy high touchdown total. So his current ADP of wide receiver thirty four doesn't seem that absurd to me. You can't really bank on the Patriots being a super pass heavy team, and then you can't necessarily bank on Cam Newton targeting Edelman and giving Edelman the same type of target share that we saw historically with Tom Brady. And then on top of that, the wide receiver position is just really competitive, not in New England, but the whole wide receiver position in fantasy football. Can I make a case for Edelman to be a few spots above where he's being drafted, Sure, but I can also make the case that Deontay Johnson, who's being drafted below him, has way more upside, or that Marvin Jones, who's also being drafted below him, that he does too. Edelman's a fairly safe option to meet ADP or at least get close to it. But you have to be concerned about where his ceiling comes from. Given all the question marks, and then offense and the fact that his fantasy football worth his value. It's tied directly to volume, even more so than other wide receivers, and with a new quarterback, we don't know exactly what that volume is going to look like, so it's just a combination of all of the above.

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Speaker 2: The best word to describe.

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Speaker 1: Julian Edelman this year is that he's fine. The next question is from at forty four Keegan. If you are in a superflex league with people who have never played Superflex, how can you get them to see the value that quarterbacks hold compared to other positions. Most of the other players do not see how valuable quarterbacks are, especially since it is six point per touchdown pass league. Well, first off, make sure that you're not overrating what happens in a league where your quarterbacks get six points per touchdown pass. If you listen back to episode two hundred and fifty, I talk about that. But second, I'm not sure that this should really matter. If you value a position or players in a different way than your league mates do, and you feel good that your evaluation is smarter and it's better than your league mates, then you should be exploiting that. But to go along with that episode on six points per touchdown pass, it's not a bad idea to also listen to my super Flex Strategy podcast that I did a while back, which is episode one hundred and thirty nine. Even though that show was done a while ago, the concepts are still valid for drafts that are happening this year. This last question is from at Max and Palmer. It seems like the Obj discount this year is too good to pass up. Offense should be better, and he obviously has wide receiver one overall upside.

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts.

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Speaker 1: I think Obj is a decent target, but I'm not sure he's too good to pass up. Last year did happen He had that injury, but he was outperformed by his teammate Jarvis Landry, and we could realistically see more of a run heavy offense with Kevin Stefanski in town, which wouldn't help Obj's volume either. Those are some of the cons Obviously the pros or that he's Odell Beckham and he's still a lock to see a pretty high target share in that offense. But you have to look at the cost and getting Obj. Who are you passing up on right now? It's Amari Cooper, Juju, Smith Schuster, and Adam Thielen. You can make similar upside arguments for each of those three wide receivers. Now, I don't mind getting Obj, Don't get me wrong. There's some touchdown regression that should be heading his way favorably, and he did well in the air yards department last year, ranking third in the NFL. He was just bad at converting. I just think the wide receiver position is strong in that area of the draft, which is why he's not as much of a slam dunk as he might appear to be. There's still some risk even though he's so talented, so I think that he's properly priced. This best question is from at D Underscore Green Underscore seventeen. Which wide receivers do you most prefer in the second tier after the big five are gone?

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Speaker 2: Eg?

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Speaker 1: Robinson, Galladay, Thelan, Obj, Juju, dj Moore, Cooper. If you assume approximately the same cost. Well, since I plugged my rankings at number five at the top of this episode, I'll look at my rankings and I'll tell you where I've got those guys ranked, And right now it's Galladay more Thelan Robinson, Obj, Cooper, and then Juju.

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Speaker 2: At a high level.

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Speaker 1: I like Galladay the most of that group because of the potential upside if we see an increase in target share for Kenny Galladay.

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Speaker 2: He's one of the few players who should be able.

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Speaker 1: To maintain a high touchdown total given the way that they use him, and now frequently he's targeted in the end zone. But what happens if he sees a two or three percent boost and target share. That's the intrigue with Kenny Golladay.

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Speaker 2: I've got him.

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Speaker 1: More in thelin essentially back to back to back. Flan's volume upside is awesome and DJ Mori has just had a really special start to his career. He's an easy buy even with all the changes in Carolina. Robinson has proven to be effective regardless of quarterback play, and I already talked through Obj and then with Cooper. With Amari Cooper, I tend to just prefer to draft Michael Gallup at his price instead. They had pretty similar numbers last year, and I think people are way overstating the impact that Ceedee Lamb is going to have on those numbers. For Michael Gallup Specifically, Lamb can also eat in that offense and he can do so without drastically impacting Michael Gallup. And then lastly, with Juju, it's just the unknowns. He was not good last year, regardless of the quarterbacks and his health.

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Speaker 2: He was not good.

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Speaker 1: We know his age profile is awesome, we know he has upside, but he's not entering the year without question marks. That's my very not quantitative take on those guys and why I have them ranked where I have them ranked. I'm also not the biggest fan of rankings because they don't provide much detail, but hopefully that helps. This last question says, when you say that a stat will regress to the mean, is that for the next season or the average across two seasons. Is there a way you quantify which time period to use. Thanks, So regression doesn't really have a timeframe. Obviously, we're going to see more drastic changes for players year over year because more changes in that player's offense year over year, but within a season, regression is happening all the time. Within a game, regression is happening. I think going with my typical golf example is a good way of explaining this. For those of you who play golf, You've got your typical score that you shoot when you go out to play.

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Speaker 2: I'm a low nineties golfer.

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Speaker 1: I expect to shoot between a ninety two and a ninety five when I play. Some days, I'll shoot an eighty nine, and I'll be excited that I broke ninety, but without actually improving my game, I should expect that number to rise back to the mean the next time that I play. That's on a round by round basis, though you can look at this on a shot by shot.

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Speaker 2: Or a hole by hole basis too.

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Speaker 1: I may shoot in eighty nine, but that score may just be because I had a stretch of four holes where I went like minus two. I shouldn't expect to maintain that kind of pace hole in and hole out. And the same holds true in football. If a player is scoring touchdowns on every pacity catches, let's say, then we can't expect that player to keep scoring touchdowns at that rate. There could be reasons why he's scoring touchdowns at a higher rate than normal, like end zone targets or for a running back goal line attempts. But regression comes for everyone at some point, so there's no timeframe for spotting regression. It's always in play. We just talk about it on a game by game and a season by season basis because that's when we need to make decisions in fantasy football. This last question is from at the Great Buddha. In your Auction Draft Strategy episode, you talked about adjusting auction values depending on the available funds. Can you expand on that. I've seen some places say to just multiply everything by the difference factor, but auction drafts never seem to be that linear. Yeah, auction drafts are not linear, which is what I talked about on that episode.

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Speaker 2: But I think this is a fair point. I think that you can still use very.

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Speaker 1: Basic math as a baseline though, Like, for example, if Christian McCaffrey in a twelve team league goes for sixty dollars of a possible two hundred dollars budget, that means he's going for sixty dollars of a possible twenty four hundred dollars across the league, So he's two point five percent of the league's budget. So hypothetically, in a fourteen team league, that two and a half percent means seventy dollars. If you want to just up that number, then I think that's fine. It actually plays into what I talked about on that show that you should be upping the baseline value for the higher end players. But that's the way that you can change the auction values based in your league size. This ask questions from at E Fantasy Underscore COLA love the show. Thanks, Are we putting too much stock into the Packers not adding a legit wide receiver too? Adams had just seventeen point three PPR points per game last year, which was wide receiver eight. Disregarding his injury, he still didn't perform at an elite level, But we are right back to dre him as the wide receiver two. This is where looking strictly at points per game can get you into trouble. Adams underperformed in the touchdown column last year. He had five touchdowns when his yardage total dictated that he should have had six, and when you look at how he did close to the end zone, it was not pretty.

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Speaker 2: He had eleven end.

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Speaker 1: Zone targets and he converted on just two of them, so eighteen percent of them. The previous three seasons for DeVante Adams he was converting on forty five percent of those targets. He had four red zone touchdowns in twelve games last year, when his previous three seasons saw him with twenty eight and forty five games. The other point to make is that Green Bay was fortunate to win as many games as they did last year, and their pass to rush ratio was lower than expected. If they see more neutral or negative game scripts this year, that can benefit the receivers and Devonte Adams and seeing more volume. My projections have Adams as the wide receiver two this year. I think his ADP makes plenty of sense, and I actually think that you can make the case that he is this year's wide receiver one. This last questions from at play four, n are you buying the John new Smith and Ian Thomas breakout hype? I think John new Smith is a really interesting and good player. But I'm surprised by how high people have John hus Smith this year because the situation really isn't that different. I realize his ADP isn't all that high, so you really shouldn't be avoiding John Hu Smith. It doesn't make any sense. He has the physical tools to be a breakout. There are just some legit John new Smith people out there when evidence suggests that things aren't that favorable for him. Tennessee should throw a little bit more this year than they did last year, but it's not like Smith has a huge change in competition. Delaney Walker's been barely involved in that offense for two seasons, and even when you look at smith splits last year without Walker, which was week eight through the end of the year, and this is when Smith's snapshare did rise a little bit, but he averaged eight point seven PPR points per game over that stretch, and that was with the brilliant efficiency from Ryan Tannehill. The favorable for John who is that the only player to have confidence in that offense to see a high target year is AJ Brown, whereas with Ian Thomas you've got at the very least Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore. But the Panthers have a chance to be really pass heavy this year with their new staff and the fact that defense is.

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Speaker 2: Going to be terrible.

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Speaker 1: It could easily be the worst defense in the league, and that means that Thomas could just fall into a lower end tight end one season.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I don't mind either guy. I think if you're playing in Best Ball leagues, you're playing in a lot of different leagues, you can target those players, and I'm cool with you getting them as your second tight end in a deeper format. But they're not my favorite late round tight end targets because there's some obvious roadblocks.

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Speaker 2: In their way. The last question this week is from at Josh Earsley.

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Speaker 1: It says, even as the rushing leader last year, why is Derrick Henry not being drafted as such? Derrick Henry's a freak and he's likely to outpace expected touchdowns each season because he's a freak. But despite leading the league in rushing last year, he was the RB four and p your points per game ranking behind CMC Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones.

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Speaker 2: That means Ezekiel.

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Speaker 1: Elliott, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara, each of them ranked behind Derrick Henry last year in points per game. Zeke was only point one points off, So it's not hard to understand why people are ranking him ahead of Derrick Henry this year, but.

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Speaker 2: Barkley and Kamara were injured and they underperformed. It's not hard to.

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Speaker 1: Envision the two of them being ahead of Henry this year too. So there's CMC, there's Saquon, there's Kamara, and there's Zeke. The only other running back that's ranked ahead of Derrick Henry in ADP over the last month is Dalvin Cook, a player who was better than Henry in points per game last year. Henry's the RB six. So to your question, I'm not really sure Derek Henry isn't being drafted as the league's leading rusher. It's more so the recognition that the Titans offense isn't going to be as efficient as they were last year at scoring touchdowns. That Henry still only saw twenty four targets last year. And to that touchdown efficiency point, Derrick Henry sucks when he doesn't score. There's a scary, scary floor involved each week that he doesn't find the end zone. He just happens to score a lot. But my buddy Rich Reebar from Sharp Football Analysis, he may note of this, and it's kind of mind blowing. Get ready for this, Derrick Henry has never ranked as an RB two or better in weekly scoring when he hasn't scored a touchdown. Those touchdowns have been there the last two years, especially last year, but people rightfully shouldn't expect sixteen rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns from Derrick Henry year in and year round. Unless Henry improves on his pass catching numbers, he shouldn't be drafted higher than he's currently being drafted. That's going to do it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, stay safe, enjoy your weekend, and I'll talk to you next week