681: 15 Transactions for Week 4

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Speaker 1: This is the latest with your host JJ Zachera J J Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode six hundred and eighty one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Thursday Nights officially belonged to the NFL again, and Fandel and Amazon Prime Video have teamed up to bring you more ways to win this NFL season, introducing the Prime Video Pick Them, a free to play pick Them contest center on one of the most exciting events of the week, Thursday Night Football. Here's how it works. You'll be given ten questions to answer about Thursday Night's game. Fans who answer the most questions correctly will want to share fifteen thousand dollars in cash prizes. It's that easy. Be sure to tune into Amazon Prime Videos Thursday Night Football Week four matchup to keep track of your score. No purchase necessary, Agent location restrictions apply. Floyd were prohibited c full terms at Fandel dot com. It's a fifteen transactions day. Let's do this. Sell Chase Edmunds. So after Week one I had a transaction of buying Chase Edmonds and in that transaction. I said, quote, we can't assume he'll maintain this pace per se, but it's definitely a good sign. He did not maintain that pace. Now, in that Week one game, his production wasn't anything special, but his peripherals were pretty freaking good. He had two thirds of the team's running back rushes in a twelve point nine percent target chair. That's usually what we see from top ten, top fifteen running backs, but over the last two weeks, where he mostered has been more involved in that backfield. Edmonds has seen his percentage of team running back rushes go from two thirds to about one third over the last two weeks, and over these two games, his target share per game is five and a half percent. That's not going to cut it. Thankfully, He's coming off this game against the Bills where he scored twice, So it's a sell high window for Chase Edmonds in his peripherals. Given how they're using him right now, he's looking more like an RB three and PPR formats. Maybe that goes up a little bit in negative gamescripts, but the problem is that Miami looks for real ad Khalil Herbert. Now, I know Khalil Herbert's not available in your league, I get it, but he is out there in fifty one percent of Yahoo leagues right now. Now. Entering the season, I talked about how there was a non zero chance that Herbert would just end up being a better player than David Montgomery. Now, I'm not declaring victory by any means, but David Montgomery hurt his ankle and knee on Sunday and Herbert coming in from Montgomery went nuts. He had twenty carries for one hundred and fifty seven yards and two touchdowns. I'm telling you, guys, Khalil Herbert is legit. He posted over thirty PPR points. David Montgomery has never done that in his career. Herbert now has a fifty four point six percent success rate, that's the percentage of runs that ended up producing positive expected value. Montgomery He's at thirty four point three percent, and that's based on number Fire's expected points formula. For the record, but this is a continuation of what we saw last year from Khalil Herbert as a rookie. He posted better efficiency marks than David Montgomery and a lot of important metrics. Now at the time of this recording, I don't know exactly how long David Montgomery is gonna be sidelined, but even if that injury is not that serious, Herbert may have just ended up playing into more work. It's tough to leave a player like Herbert on your bench. And that's not me talking from a fantasy perspective. That's me talking from the Chicago Bears perspective. He shouldn't be on your waiver wire right now. By Treylon Burks, this year's rookie wide receiver class looks awesome. Drake London might end up being a top fifteen wide receiver this year in fantasy. Chris Alave has back to back games with target shaars above thirty percent. Garrett Wilson's been awesome. Johan Dotson's been awesome. Treylon Burks your next. You know it's funny. Burke's best game use wise actually came in Week three, but it was his worst performance. In Week one, he had a sixteen point one percent target share and eight and a half PPR points. Week two, that target share was twenty seven point three percent. He scored eight point seven points this past week against the Raiders, that target share was only seven point seven percent, and he scored three point one points and I tilted off the planet when he went down on the one inch line. But in Week three, Burks led the team and routes run for the first time this season. He played sixty nine percent of the team snaps. In Week one, that was thirty six point nine percent week two forty four point six percent. The Titans are using Trey lom Burks more and more, and Tennessee's not necessarily going to be in the best game scripts for Derrick Henry each week. At this moment in time, you can probably send off some bench assets to acquire Trey lom Berks. I would try to do that this week. Ad Jeric McKinnon. I think McKinnon's probably my favorite under the radar ad this week. He outsnapped Clyde Edward a layer in Week two, but Cech had his knees stepped on against the Chargers. He lost some snaps because of that. In Week three, though McKinnon out snapped Clyde Edwards a layer once again. McKinnon has seen more snaps than Cech in two of three games this year, and both players in Week three had the same number of rush attempts. I think McKinnon could just naturally see more work in this offense, but he'd see a lot more work with the Clyde Edwards a layer injury. Remember, in the playoffs last year, McKinnon was effective in that cech role. He carried the ball thirty four times and he caught fourteen passes during Kansas City's three playoff games. So add Jeric McKinnon this week, Sell James Robinson. So I think this is going to be the most controversial transaction this week. So I want to preface by saying that, no, you should not be trading James Robinson no matter what. For anything, I'm just working under the assumption that Robinson has beloved right now across the fantasy football world because of his production. But I think that production is a little bit overblown now. Courting number five is expected points model. Of the running backs with twenty or more carries this year, only Austin Eckler and Joe Mixon have seen worse success rates than James Robinson has. What that means is he's not improving Jacksonville's expected points at a very high rate. That tells us that he might be saving himself with some big plays and that's really the case. Robinson has carried the ball fifty one times this year. He's gained two or fewer yards on sixty two point seven percent of those rushes. Among all running backs with twenty plus carries, that ranks dead last by over eight percentage points. Now, before Monday Night Football, Robinson ranked fifteenth and running back rush share this season. That's good and fine, but he's barely in the top forty at running back and target share. And that's all thanks to Travis Etn being in this offense. And speaking of Travis Etn, what happens if and when the Jaguars see in negative game script. They've been good to start the year. I'm not taking anything away from Jacksonville. I would love to see Jacksonville make the playoff this year. But Etn has been the hurry up and third down back, not Robinson. Jacksonville does have a good schedule moving forward, but they're eventually going to see some negative game scripts. That's bound to happen, and that would hurt James Robinson. Now. The other thing, too, is that pro football focus is expected. Fantasy Points model shows that Robinson has exceeded expectation at the sixth highest rate of running back this year. So he was expected to score some number of fantasy points and he's exceeded that at a very high rate. And the thing is the players sitting with him within that statistic, they're largely players who have just dominated on the ground this year. You have Cornero Patterson who's crushing it, Nick Chubb, DeAndre Swift, Khalil Herbert. The only other running back on that list is Clyde Edwards Hilaire, who's been a cell candidate for the last couple of weeks. So basically there's a reason those other running backs have outperformed that expectation. They're straight up dominating. James Robinson is not dominating the same way. Now, this does not mean declaring that James Robinson is some RB three and fansantasy now, don't walk away from this podcast thinking that I think he's gonna be fine. He's still going to be in RB two in fantasy football. I'm just looking at fantasy rankings right now, and I'm seeing that James Robinson is near the top of that list, and you might be able to flip him for a top back who's seeing way better peripherals than Robinson is. Perhaps the next guy is someone that you could flip for him by Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon's fantasy performance so far has been horrible. According to Pro Football Focuses expected fantasy points metric that I was just talking about. No running back has been expected to score more points this year than Joe Mixon by a pretty wide margin too. He's seeing amazing work, but he ranks outside the top twenty at the position. The crazy thing is his peripherals right now are arguably the best that he's ever seen in his career. He currently has a sixteen point three percent target chair, when his single season career high in per game target share was twelve point three percent entering the season. His running back rush here right now is eighty four percent. If the season ended today, that would also be a career high. So, plain and simple, Joe Mixon has been ineffective. He's got a worse success rate than James Robinson, who I was just talking about, and he scored zero touchdowns on his five goal line attempts. The three other players with five or more goal line rushes this season have at least two touchdowns. So think of it this way, if Joe Mixon hit that mark. If he scored twice on his five goal line rushes, he'd be ranked where Jonathan Taylor's ranked right now because he's seeing all this volume. He hasn't been that effective, but he's seeing a lot of it now. The Bengals have struggled a bit offensively to start the season. In Week three, they finally did okay. It just so happens that against the Jets, Cincinnati threw for their touchdowns and Joe Mixon hurt his ankle during that game, resulting in more samaj p Ryn, we have a pretty large sample of Joe Mixon not being bad at football, so as long as this injury that he suffered is not serious, we should expect things to turn around because this workload is truly awesome. But do be aware that Cincinnati has a short week this week, so if you'd rather wait on this transaction given this injury, I think that's totally understandable. But right now, on paper, Joe Mixon is definitely a by low add Romeo Dobbs. Christian Watson was out on Sunday for the Packers. Sammy Watkins now on IR that allowed rookie Romeo Dobbs to play a season high eighty eight point seven percent of Green Bay snaps. His previous I was fifty seven point four percent all the way back in Week one. That increase, implying time, turned into a twenty three point five percent target share and twenty one point three PPR points. This could be the start of something big for Romeo Dobbs. I would add him this week. Add Jamal Williams and Craig Reynolds. So DeAndre Swift has set to miss some time with a shoulder injury, but it's not going to require surgery. That's good news, but that does mean that primary backup Jamal Williams gets priority off the waiver wire this week. If he's on your waiver wire, I understand he's already rostered in sixty one percent of leagues. If he's not available, you could look to Craig Reynolds. In two games without Swift last year, Williams, who was a little bit banged up in these games, averages sixty seven point one percent running back rush share per game. Reynolds was active for one of those games, and in that game he had a thirty seven percent running back rush share. So Reynolds was involved and he was even included in the game against Minnesota this past weekend, carrying it six times. Don't forget in twenty twenty one, Reynolds had a couple of games as the lead back for the Lions, and he scored double digit PPR points in each of those games. Jamal Williams is the obvious go to player here. I'm just mentioning Craig Reynolds because you can probably get him for free off the waiver wire this week, and I need to mention some deep league ads. I think Craig Reynolds is one of those players. Hold Alvin Kamara. We've now seen Kamara active for two games this year, and it has not been pretty. He scored fewer than fifteen PPER points combined in those two games. But here's the thing. His peripherals have been great. He's averaged a running back rush share of seventy two point one percent and his target share per game is over fifteen percent. Only Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, and pre Monday Night Football Saquon Barkley have hit those marks this year. In terms of expected Fantasy points, Kamara is underperforming. That's not a shock, but that also means that he's probably a bye. He's at least more of a bye than a cell. But right now I have him as a hold because some of you might not want to buy into an injury because he is a little bit banged up. Add David and Joku. So when Joku started a season off slow, but things have gotten better week after week. Week one saw him which is a three point three percent target share, but that bumped up to eighteen and a half percent in week two, and then in week three he destroyed the Steelers. He had nine catches, eighty nine yards in a touchdown and a thirty two point three percent target chair. Now entering that game against Pittsburgh, and Joku's route participation really wasn't that bad for Cleveland. It ranked just outside the top ten tight end. But now he's flashed that ceiling. And not only that, but the Browns offense has looked competent with Jacoby Brissett. So think because of those things, you can safely add him if he's somehow on your waiver wire. Right now, I know the tight end position is really really difficult. Sell Damien Harris death taxes in a JJ Zacharyasen recommendation of selling Damien Harris. So Thy Montgomery was injured in Week one, it forced the Patriots to use Ramandre Stevenson in that pass catching role. Over the last two weeks. Damian Harris's role really hasn't changed that much. He's played between thirty seven and thirty nine percent in New England snaps in each of their first three games this year. But you didn't hear that incorrectly. He's averaging a thirty eight point seven percent snap share this season. This is what Damian Harris is. He's a completely touchdown dependent running back and he doesn't play a whole lot of snaps. And now his competition is a two hundred and thirty pound running back and can catch passes out of the backfield. Ramandre Stevenson I talked about this last week on the show. He's seen an uptick and snapshare over the last two weeks. When you have a player like that on the field more often, he's a bigger threat. Stevenson can actually see those goal line rushes and that's a problem for Damien Harris. So I think that if you can sell Harris right now coming off this game, I think it's not a bad idea. Add Zay Jones so Trevor Lawrence looks like he's taken the proper step forward. That's alloted a lot more fantasy relevancy out of this Jaguars offense. And one pleasant surprise has been Jay Jones. He has a twenty two point six percent target share in the season. He ranks in the top twenty five across the league in wide receiver targets. So plain and simple, you shouldn't leave that type of target share in your waiver wire by Elijah Moore. Now, look, I'm not going to sit here and defend Elijah Moore's poor start to the season. So far, I've looked wrong because I like Elijah Moore. I drafted Elijah Moore. He has just a fifteen percent target share in the Jets offense. He's yet to finish in the top forty and weekly wide receiver scoring after averaging seventeen point seven PPERO points per game down the stretch last year before his injury. But here's the thing. Players of his caliber usually pan out at a pretty good rate. He ranked in the ninety seven percentile within my year two model. The year two model helps predict how well a player is going to do during his second and thirty years in the league. Moore's expected top season in years two to three was fifteen point seven PPERO points per game. This is all on the Prospect Guide, by the way, but that's a number that would have ranked just outside wide receiver one territory last year. Now, it's possible that last year was just fluky, but there's a lot of evidence his college profile, the fact that his production was so good last year, there's evidence that points to more being a very good wide receiver. With a quarterback change coming for the Jets, this might be the perfect time to buy low a talented player add Tyler Conklin. So, speaking of the Jets passing attack, what about Tyler Conklin. No tight end has run more routes than Tyler Conklin this season, and even with Cijo Ozama back in the lineup in Week three, Conkland had forty one routes run Ouzama had thirteen. Conkland now has a sixteen point two percent target share on the season, and that's on a team that's thrown the ball a lot because they're seeing negative game scripts. So that's a resultant in three straight double digit PPR point games for Tyler Conklin. Maybe Zach Wilson's returned screwses all up, but tight End's a dumpster fire that makes Conklin a worthwhile ad. Add the New York Giants defense. In Week four, the Giants get the Bears in Chicago's two non monsoon games this year. Their opponents have tallied eight sacks, three interceptions in a fumble recovery. Fandel Sportsbook has this game and a small forty point over under, and New York is a home favorite. Let's just be upfront about this. We're gonna stream defenses against the Bears a lot this year. That's gonna do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, you know. Effort to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to check out lateround dot com otherwise I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show