1018: Mailbag - Keon Coleman's Week 1, Kenneth Walker's Value, and More

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha, j J Zacher Reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachareson in this episode oney eighteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code Late Round to play for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hunter gambler in New York called eight seven to seven eight hope n Why in Connecticut called eighty eight seventy nine seven seven seven seven eighteen plus and most states eligible restructors. Supply ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions. It's a mail bag day. Let's get to these questions. The first question is from Patreon. It's from Kevin. It says, hey, JJ, how sustainable was the breakout game for Keon Coleman. He looked great but was that only because of gamescript? Not sure if we can expect a two touchdown deficit for the Bills every week. So I had Coleman as a target in this year's draft guide. And when I say things like that, I don't say it to be like, hey, look at me. I'm gonna do this a lot on today's show. I mention it so that you guys can be grounded with where I was with the player before I dig into that player. If it makes you feel any better, I had Zave Flowers as an avoid So how's that working out. I'm gonna be right, I'm gonna be wrong. That's the way this stuff goes. But I'm grounding myself to say I liked Keon Coleman entering the season. I was higher than the market with Coleman. I thought there were reasons to be interested in him. And so my answer to this is that I do think at least some of this is sustainable. But there's a lot of noise to what went down to So let's just dig in. Buffalo is actually at just plus point seven percent in pass right over expect against Baltimore. That's because, as you noted, they faced a poor game script, so they were expected to pass a lot. I don't think that kind of script is gonna be frequent. Josh Allen threw it forty six times in that game. His highest pass attempt total last year was forty attempts. This isn't the way that Joe Brady tends to run his offense. The Bills ran forty seven plays in Week one while trailing by ten or more points. Their highest total last year within that category was forty plays, and funny enough, that also came against Baltimore. But this is why we can look at peripherals, you guys. This is a prime example of why I focus so heavily on things like target share, because game script fluctuates overall team volume can fluctuate. When you know how a team deployed a player within his team environment, you can then adjust for a more stable game script, one that we're more likely to see. For the Buffalo Bills, Keon Coleman in Week one saw a ninety four percent route participation rate that was best on the Bills. He had a twenty four percent target share that was best on the Bills. Coleman reached better than a ninety percent route share just twice last year, and those games were in Week seventeen. In Week eighteen, the end of the year for a young rookie, his target shairs in those games they were also the two highest shares of his season. So this is sort of an extension of what we saw down the stretch in that twenty twenty four season, which is very, very encouraging, and that's the part that I'm really interested in. So, no, what happened in Week one not totally sustainable. He saw eleven total targets when a twenty five percent target chair in Buffalo usually won't yield eleven targets. But there are a lot of encouraging signs for Keon Coleman that make me believe he's gonna outperform his average draft position this year. A lot of his Year one comparisons, when you look at things like average at the target yards oute run, they were players who can play that X role and who can be big touchdown scorers like Cortland, Sutton and George Pickens. There were misses in there too. Not all of his comps were perfect, but the ceiling comps were definitely there, and I think with Coleman, there is an interesting ceiling despite the fact that some of these separation scorers don't like him. That's just not his game. He's not gonna score well within those kind of metrics. I think overall, it's a very encouraging game for Keyon Coleman, the nice question is from Davy. It says there's been a lot of talk about Harold Fannin of the Browns. I'm curious about your take on David and Joku. Is he a hold because of the trade possibility and the fact that he still ran a full compliment of routes. I mean, I think he's a hold because it's one game, and yes, he still ran a normal number of routes. And in Joko is in the same type of tight end as Harold Fannin is. I talked about this at times throughout the offseason, specifically remember having a discussion about it with Matt Waldman, whether it was on my show or maybe his show. But Fannin is a very good route runner. He's not the most traditional tight end in the world from that perspective, whereas in Djoku he's always used his athleticism to get the job done, and Djoku can really stretch the field if need be. Fanin is more of that technician. What we saw in Week one was number one, the Kevin Stefanski Special, which is a lot of twelve personnel, two tight end sets, which makes a lot of sense because the Browns don't have a lot of wide receiver depth, they have no obvious slot receiver. Fannin ended up running forty two percent of his routes out of the slot. That's not like an insane number, but it was a lot more than David and Joku. I do think that one possibility here is that we're looking at a similar situation as what we saw last year in Baltimore with Mark Andrews and Isaiah likely in Week one last year, likely comes out he has a monster game, but Andrews was still the one running more routes for Baltimore. That's definitely a possibility. With that being said, I think there's a better chance that we see Fannin overtaking in Joku than likely overtaking Andrews. And yes, hindsight's in my favor here. We know that Isaiah likely didn't overtake Mark Andrews last year. If these two things, in these two situations were happening simultaneously, maybe my take is a little bit different. I can admit that I have no idea, but the reason why is pretty straightforward to me. Fannin's a rookie and he was a better prospect than Isaiah Likely. He's also a completely different type of asset compared to what the Browns already have and David and Joku. He's not as good as Mark Andrews. So I'll just be honest. As the week's gone on, I've gotten more and more bullish on Harold Fannin. I mean, I liked him coming out, and I even liked him as a dart throwne like best Ball this year. I'm just saying from a redraft perspective, I've liked him more and more as I thought about this situation. I think our natural instinct is to say, well, David and Joku there, surely he's gonna be the tight end one in fantasy for the Browns. But I'm not convinced that's gonna happen with the way they deployed Fannin in week one. Now, I don't think that's a sure thing. Right now. I still having Joku ahead, but that gap is much closer after Week one than it was before Week one, and look, I was already lower than the market on David and Joku, and again not saying that the pat myself in the back, just more to tell you that that was my stance entering the season, and I'm still lower than the market. I think this fan and stuff is legit, especially because they lack that go to slot player. So Fannin doesn't destroy in Joku, but he definitely hurts in Joku. They may not play the same type of position, but when you have another threat in that offense, it lowers the target share potential of the players around that player. With Harold Fannin getting looks, it hurts every other player in that offense. From a fantasy perspective, it's another fifteen percent target share that we have to account for, and maybe that target share is going to be even higher. So even if that route share is strong, which it was in Week one for David and Joku, having another weapon will make David and Joku's fantasy output worse. It doesn't make him irrelevant, and he might even be fine here in Week two, but over the long run, Harold Fannin's presence makes David and Joku a worse fantasy football asset. This says questions from Brendon, It says, what impact from the Tank Bigsby trade do you envision? Would you be trying to obtain Tank or Tutin? And who has a higher ROI for rest of season. I also got one from Albert that says, hey, JJ, it seems like everyone is high on Beshall Tuton, especially with Bigsby gone. However, it seems like Luquinn Allen might be the receiving back. It wouldn't that make him more valuable if Etn were to miss time. It seems like it would be a committee opposed to Tutan becoming a league winning three down back or do you think Tuton would see RB one volume? So I've got to talk about this Tank Bigsby trade, at least more than I was able to talk about it on the fifteen Transactions episode earlier this week. First off, with Tank Bigsby, I don't think he's anything more than a handcuff, and I talk about this on the Late Round Perspectives episode that's dropping in just a few hours, so you can listen to that for more. But I don't think he's anything more than a handcuff and a guy the Eagles wanted for special teams purposes. Now outside of that, going into Jacksonville, this is a massive win for everyone in that backfield. But I've seen the takes out there where people are like, why are people excited about Teuton when Travis Etn just had a great game and he was recently a top running back in fantasy And the reason for that is because it's a very real chance that Travis Etn's workload doesn't even change week over week with this move. The big winner compared to Week one is bay Shall Tuton, who now has a clearer path to seeing the field. And if you're like me and you like bea Shall Tuton, you thought he was a really good prospect, you thought that he was someone who is undervalue, then you're excited because that means that Tuton now has a chance to show off his ability, whereas before there was more in his way. But yes, of course it's gonna help Travis Etn, especially in the short term. We didn't know if he'd be the short yardage back or the goal line back, and now that's a very real possibility. He had a good game in Week one, his usage was there, and now there's not a threat of Tank Bigsby. With that being said, I'm anticipating bashall Tuton getting more and more work as the season goes on. The ZAP model loved Teuton, and there are already reporters out there like Jordan Schultz who are talking about Tuton stock being up. That's a national reporter. Now. When it comes to la Quinn Allen, I had him as an ad on the fifteen Transaction Show earlier this week because obviously Etn and Tuton they're already rostered in a lot of leagues. Allen's playing as their long down in distance back and maybe he ends up carving out a bigger role than what expecting. I mean, I liked him as a prospect too, and there's some continuent upside here with multiple running backs with both base Shall Tuton and Travis Etn. If one of them get hurt, then yeah, lea Quinn Allen he'll see more work on the ground. But Allen doesn't profile as the early down runner that bashall Tuton profiles as. And even though Allen be the hypothetical pass catcher, we have to remember that there are more first and second downs than third downs. If Laquent Allen is only on the field on third downs. That's not the most valuable role in the world. Even if he is the pass catcher in that backfield, there's still gonna be a lot of targets going to both Travis Etn and hopefully bay Shall Tuton two. I think we confuse that at times third down backs aren't seeing the field as much even if they're operating in that role. And it's highly unlikely that Allen's going to be the goal line back. But look, it's a big trade for all three of these running backs. I think Etn is gonna win the short term, while Tuton is the biggest winner low long term, and LeQuinn Allen could be rostered in twelve teen leagues because all of the reasons I just mentioned, at least in deeper PPR formats the tests questions from ted It says, do all signs point to Quinn Shawn Judkins taking over that Brown's backfield once he starts playing or is it going to be a messy three headed committee? Now, obviously Quinn Shawn Judkins needs to be rostered in every league at this point, but I did have some pass catching concerns with him as a prospect not that he was a zero. He wasn't like Damian Martinez. It wasn't that kind of profile. But Judkins looked more like a Jonathan Taylor type from a usage perspective than a Christian McCaffrey type. And I thought Dylan Samson number one, looked pretty good in Week one, but number two he showed that he could be a pass catcher in the NFL. I thought there were actually some question marks to his profile as well coming out, but that's also partially because Tennessee is a really hard school to prospect from. They have a really difficult offense to really wrap your head around. It wouldn't surprise me if Jerome Ford gets phased out during the second half of the season. But like I said in the Sleeper Show, Ford still played their two minute snaps, so in negative game scripts, I do think that Jerome Ford could see the field quite a bit, which could be a problem for the fantasy upside of Dylan Sampson and Quinchwn Judkins. So I kind of see this as a short term mess, whereas as the season goes on, we'll see more of a two headed monster with Judkins and Samson. Judkins could be like a sixty five seventy percent running back rush air player, maybe like a six or seven percent target shair player, while Sampson gets the other work in that backfield. The st question from Twitter it says, how do you feel about Penix for rest of the season as a locked starter? So I do that episode on good early season schedules in late July every year, and I called out Pennix on that show because Atlanta's opening schedule is awesome. We saw him come through in week one, and he's streamworthy here in week two, and then it's the Panthers, Commanders, the Bills that games in Atlanta, the forty nine Ers, and the Dolphins now rest of season locked in starter. I'd be surprised if that ended up being the case, but as someone who should be rostered during the front half of the season, just to see how we feel during the second half of the year. Absolutely, This last question from Daniel it says, how are we feeling about Josh Downs. I know it's only week one, but it seems like his role is the exact same as last year, and it's only made worse due to the emergence of Tyler Warren. Losing hope in Downs so I'm once again gonna preface this by how I felt in the preseason because it gives you guys perspective of where I was and where I'm at now. But his usage in Week one it was precisely what kept me from ranking him above market. This offseason, I did a study via the Late Round newsletter that looked at his type of archetype. Now that study, it's centered around Jaden Reid and whether Reid's role really mattered for fantasy purposes, And by roll, I'm talking about a wide receiver who had a lower route participation rate under the eighty percent mark while having higher slot rates over the sixty percent mark. Among players who fell into those buckets, since twenty eleven, we've only had three wide outs ranked higher than wide receiver seventeen in PPR points per game. Only five guys have been wide receiver one or wide receiver twos. And of the players who sort of buck this trend, they basically just scored a lot of touchdowns. Now, both Reid and Downs have better profiles than the traditional slot guys. They're incredibly efficient players, but yes, if their teams are going to continue using them in that way, and I'm recording this before the Packers game for the record. So maybe Green Bay uses Jayden Reid a different way in Week two. We'll see. But until their teams start using them more on a higher percentage of their dropbacks, they're gonna be limited in fantasy football. Now, if you want some optimism, the hope in the upside for Josh Downs is that Indy didn't have to do a lot of heavy throwing in Week one. They were bottom five in pass rate against My Miami because of game script. But one thing to keep in mind and just a monitor, is that Indy did use twelve personnel at about a thirty percent rate in Week one. That's according to Sumer Sports data. That number was twenty twenty one percent last year. Now, that too could just be how that game was handled, but more twelve personnel would also hurt Josh Downs. Downs is a very very good player. I still think he's a general buy in Dynasty. I just unfortunately don't think he's in a very good environment for fantasy purposes. In fact, I know he isn't in a good environment. The last question this week is from Michael. It says I have Kenneth Walker was offered Zach Charbonay and Ricky pearsall for Rashi Rice. Am I too stubborn to think Walker can still be the main guy there and Rice can be a wide receiver one? Or should I take this offer? So I see stuff like this all the time where there's a disappointing RB one he's splitting work with another back, and someone goes and trade for the RB two on that team. But you have to think about where that puts your fantasy team, what kind of choices you're gonna have to make each week. By trading for Sharbonay, you're not all of a sudden getting better production from your running back spot. You're now using two roster spots for Seattle's backfield production, and you more than likely won't be starting both of those running backs in your lineup in the same week. Now. Of course, Walker gets more valuable if Sharbonay gets hurt and vice versa. But this is the same sort of idea that I talked about before with ambiguous backfields. Capturing backfields isn't really the thing that you want to do, because we know the majority of backfields they're not gonna give us multiple Top ten, Top twenty running backs. Honestly, trading for Sharbonay would actually make more sense if Kenneth Walker was a bell cow in Week one, because then you could say, Okay, we knew that Walker was coming to the season injured. We know he has an injury history. Maybe he's a little injury prone, But now I have insurance for that and what could be a good rushing offense. So I'm gonna have Zach Sharboney. I'm not even super into handcuffing this early in the season, but that actually makes more sense than trading for a player who's in a split backfield. And honestly, it feels like people were acting as though Zach Sharboney was a workhorse. In Week one. He saw two more carries than Kenneth Walker. Walker actually saw more work through the air. Now, if there's one player who I'd be concerned about after Week one versus where we drafted him, it's definitely Kenneth Walker. He fell in my rankings when looking at my draft rankings versus my rest of season rankings. Now, I've always thought that Zach Sharboney was good. Coaching staffs haven't. They haven't given Sharbonay and Walker this kind of split, and it's alarming. That this split is happening with a new offensive coordinator, so we need to react. I bumped Walker down my rankings, but I don't think we should overreact. I don't think Kenneth Walker is necessarily toast. It's not like Seattle was super effective offensively in Week one and Walker was coming off that injury. Maybe he's not one hundred percent. Look if you want to sell low on Walker because you're nervous of what's to come, I don't think that's some invalid or stupid thing to do. I still prefer him to Zach Sharbonay, and I prefer him to a lot of the RB three type running backs out there because we know the upside exists. We know it's there with Walker, and even if Sharbonay is there, we also have contingent upside with Kenneth Walker too, not just Sharps. Sharboney can get hurt too, So I think Walker's more of a hold. I'm just trying to be rational about this. I shared some data last week on the Late Round Fantasy Football show where I talked about when current season points per game becomes more predictive than average RAPT position, and after Week one, we're not even close to that point yet. Now that's across an entire sample, but it tells us that there's tons and tons of variants still early on in the season. But when it comes to combining forces and getting both running Max and your fantasy team, you should actually run away from that kind of strategy, not towards it. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are best artshing for you pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't fit to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I got a Late Round Perspectives episode dropping later today, hope you listen to that, and then tomorrow within the podcast feed you'll get an episode of the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. But if you want to just watch that show live, you can do that on YouTube as well. Kitchen and I will be live at one pm Eastern on Friday, so today, and that's on the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. Thanks for listening everyone, greatly appreciate you. Have a great weekend and enjoy week two,