981: Mailbag - Favorite Late-Round Rookie Picks, Omarion Hampton's Ranking, and More

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacheris J J zacher reeveon what's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode nine and eighty one of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Before getting the mailbag questions this week, I want to send another reminder about the Late Round Prospect Guide. The guides one hundred and sixty pages of nerdy prospect information. You get to know what goes into my prospect and Year two models. You'll get write ups on eighty running back and wide receiver prospects. There's about forty year two profile right ups too. There's rankings and tiers and so much more. Best of all, it's updated after the draft, like immediately after the NFL Draft. You'll have new write ups for relevant players. You get tight end zapp scores, you get updated rankings and more. On the final day of the NFL Draft. It'll be all finished that night. That way, you'll be all set to dominate your rookie drafts right away. Learn more about it and get a copy by heading to Lateround dot com. And if you're on the site, subscribe to the free newsletter too. You get content straight to your inbox with that newsletter. Plus it's just an easy way to support late round fantasy football. But check all that out lateround dot com. The first question this week is from twitters from at f F Underscore Rebel. It says, JJ, given your last podcast and findings on Day three players, curious about what you think we should be doing with our third and fourth round rookie draft picks. Thanks always appreciate the insights. Thank you. So I got questions like this a lot after that episode, which isn't that surprising? When you hear that Day three picks generally aren't that good? You start to wonder why am I even holding these rookie picks if we know that a lot of those guys are going to be drafted in Round three and round four of our rookie drafts. Now, there are a lot of different directions that I could go with this question, but I think the first thing to remember is sort of the thing that I always go back to when I talk about Dynasty. There are two big categories that a player is going to fall into in Dynasty. One of those categories is production, how is that player actually producing? The other is value, as in, how is the market valuing that player. Your goal in dynasty is not just to build the most productive roster. You can do that by buying into venteran players immediately competing. It's to also build the most valuable roster because that way you have a shot to be competitive year in and year out. Younger players who haven't had their big breakout are players who hold a lot of value, but they don't have as much production. But Derrick Henry, I mean, we know he's likely going to be productive next year, but that doesn't match his value because he's thirty one years old now. With the study that I did earlier in the week, I only looked at the production side of things. Even if a player doesn't hit a high production ceiling, you can still gain value with that player. Like look at Jalen McMillan. McMillan was a Day two pick, sure, but he was a Round three player in rookie drafts. He was wide receiver thirty earlier this offseason when I shouted him out on this podcast as a cell candidate. I mean, according to keep Trade cut, you can still trade Jalen McMillan for Devonte Adams straight up. He's being valued that way. Strictly due to the fact that there's potential with his profile. The odds of Jalen McMillan actually hitting fourteen or more pper points per game this year or next year, even if you're bolish, those odds aren't amazing. It's obviously possible, but it's not necessarily likely. Even still, you can flip him for a potential wide receiver one here in twenty twenty five, and the only reason you can do that is because you took a third round draft pick. You selected a player who performed well but not great, and you watched his value rise. McMillan gave us a stretch of performances last year, but he still hasn't given fantasy managers some huge season yet. Right. What I'm getting at is fantasy football is just as much about the micro actions as it is the macro ones. You can still extract value from round three to round four rookie picks if you're a decent evaluator who knows what to look for. Now. Of course, a lot of those picks are gonna inevitably fail, but the market knows that, and that brings up another key point here, which is probably the biggest point. You're not gonna get a super great contributor for a third or fourth round pick. Like right now, a mid third round pick, according to Keep Trade Cut, is getting you to Mario Douglas or Josh Palmer. Neither one of those guys is likely going to win you a fantasy championship. There are odds of getting to twelve fourteen PPR points per game. It's arguably worse than the odds that I talked about earlier this week. It's just that people think in terms of safety as opposed to upside. In other words, your median outcome for or a fourth round pick in a rookie draft. It might be worse than Josh Palmer, but the ceiling is still better than Josh Palmer, because remember, we still have players emerging from those rounds, even if they're emerging at a really low rate. To me, the stuff that I talked about earlier this week was more so about how you're valuing players within a particular rookie draft, to make sure that you're grounded with your evaluations, to not fall in love with a guy, see him go on Day three, and not change your evaluation because draft capital matters, and when it comes to these day three picks, the difference in draft capital from one player to the next has been mostly meaningless. As I said earlier this week, and I wrote about this in the newsletter this week too. When looking at Day three picks and when looking at their rookie draft eightyps from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty two, there's been zero correlation between where a player was drafted in a rookie draft and how well that player performed during his first three years of his career. Now, if you want to apply this more directly to your rookie drafts and sort of the strategy in your rookie drafts, I would say that taking like a late third round pick, where you know there's only going to be Day three choices, turning that late third into two fourths, that increases your odds of hitting on that one special Day three player that year. In other words, we know that there's not much correlation between how we're drafting these Day three players and how they perform. So someone in your league is just really wanting a Day three player and they want to trade up into Round three. They want to get that player, and they're willing to give you multiple fourth rounders as long as your rosters are deep, as long as you can hold on to those players, you should consider that. Because the odds of a fourth rounder hitting versus a late third rounder hitting, it's not that different. And so if you're getting multiple stabs at a Day three pick, you're increasing your odds of getting hit. That's how I would look at this. I'm not trading away all my third and fourth round picks because the hit rates are low, because hit rates are gonna be low for anything that I get in return. I'm just recognizing that we're usually not great as a consensus at figuring out who that Day three hit is gonna be. This last question is from twitters from at fFN Bruce. It says, listening to McShay, there are eighteen draft grade running backs this year and it's the best class possibly ever. Should the focus turn from draft capital to landing spot for running backs this year? I think it's being compared to the twenty seventeen draft and Aaron Jones went to Green Bay in the late fifth. Yeah. Look, I sent a newsletter out about this a few weeks ago about how this class doesn't just look like the twenty seventeen class because it's loaded. It looks like the twenty seventeen class because that class had a lot of good marks in the ZAP model, just like this one does, and we didn't see anything super funky with that class when it came to day one and day two picks, like we didn't see an amazing amount of Day two selections that year. We've had other classes over the last fifteen years with more Day one and day two picks at running back more than twenty seventeen, and right now today via NFL mock Draft database dot Com, it's looking very similar with projected draft capital for these guys versus what we saw in twenty seventeen. But regarding your question and turning our focus from draft capital to landing spot, I don't know exactly what that means, but my answer is probably don't do that. Draft capital is more important than landing spot. Obviously, a second rounder is better than a fifth rounder if you're in a position where you're staring at two Day three picks when one has a good landing spot the other one doesn't. Even if the player with a bad landing spot has the better ZAPP score, I might lean with the lower ZAPP score if that landing spot's a little bit better. Look at everything I've talked about on the show over the last week about Day three picks. We know there's a lot of volatility there, so sure, lean into the better landing spot, but like anything else, don't use landing spot to dictate where you're drafting these guys completely. That's arguably one of the biggest reasons that we see the things that we see in rookie draft adp all the stuff that I said earlier this week, because people get way too excited about the destination without looking at the talent level of the player himself. I mean, even Aaron Jones. It's actually funny that you bring up Aaron Jones in this question. Anyone who's been following my work for years, you know that I was an Aaron Jones truther when he came out of college. And this was before the ZAP model, before I started modeling prospects. He just had a crazy good production profile. I actually remember tweeting when he started getting more work in the Packers' offense. I think it was a primetime game, maybe a Thursday night game, and I was sitting there tweeting with excitement because I liked him as a prospect. He finally was getting his opportunity, And like I said, that was before the Zap model and the Zap model. Now, Jones is one of the best Day three profiles that you're gonna find. But the reason I say that it's funny that you bring him up with this particular question is that he was third on his depth chart entering the season. That year the Packers drafted Jamal Williams ahead of Aaron Jones in the exact same draft, and time Montgomery was on that team too, Jones was third on the depth chart. Sure, there wasn't a stud there, but it's not like Jones was seen as someone who had this fantastic landing spot. I really don't think that looking at one single hit on Day three from a deep class tells you anything at all. In fact, if you look at that draft, the other big Day three hit was Chris Carson. Not only did he come from nowhere, which again plays into what I said earlier this week about Day three picks, but Chris Carson was not walking into an obvious situation for immediate production. We had a lot of hits from that class, but it wasn't just landing spot driven in fact, I'd argue that none of it was obviously landing spot driven. I mean, James Connor was picked to a team that had Le'Veon Bell on it. You should always consider landing spot with any player. I don't think this class being loaded, though, means you should consider it more. Lead with talent, Lead with your talent evaluation, and that should include draft capital, and then go from there as you do any other year. This beast questions from Twitter is from at nom underscore ff. It says, not seeing a ton of Jaden Higgins talk, but if New England addresses offensive line at pick four, very possible. If Hunter or Carter aren't there, then he could very easily end up hearing his name called there early day two as a Drake May manager. Is there a better wide receiver at the top of round two for New England? So I think Higgins is a really good fit for New England in round two. Mina Kimes actually sent out a tweet this week after Stefan Diggs signed in New England. She said, quote, Diggs was quite good last year before he got hurt. Top three in ESPN's wide receiver score and fourth in catches under twenty yards reliable short and intermediate target for Drake May. They still need size and speed on the perimeter, which I agree with totally. I think Diggs can still probably move all around the formation, but having a true big perimeter threat who can get down the field would be huge for the Patriots. And I responded to Mina's tweet saying Jaden Higgins in round two and then I had a gift attached to it. The ZA model really likes both Jayden Higgins and Jalen Nole. They both went to Iowa State. Nol had a Randall Cobb comp in the Prospect Guide. One of Jaden higgins comps was Nico Collins. He's sort of a size speed freak. They're built similarly. They both had similar breakout scores, and Higgins sort of beat out Collins in most metrics. From a production standpoint, that doesn't mean that he's better, It just means his collegiate production and his best season. It did look better than Nico Collins, but Agian justin production. Breakout score, the main metric for wide receivers, very similar between Jayden Higgins and Nico Collins, but obviously Nico Collins given how he's performed it's more of a higher end comp for Jaden Higgins. But that's what we're talking about here, that's the ceiling aspect, and like I said, Higgins would make a ton of sense for the Patriots. That's exactly the kind of player that that offense needs. The next question is from Lurking Bears fan on Blue Sky. It says saw a couple of interesting narrative comps for mari and Hampton this year. He's neighbors to Genti's Marvin Harrison Junior, just in that the generational guy has legitimate competition as top prospect. The other one is his gibbs to Genti's Bijon and that Hampton will go much higher than people think, maybe even top fifteen. Are these fair? So? I don't think they're totally fair, but they're not totally unfair either. I think what's fair is that Hampton may go a lot higher than people think. There's a real chance he climbs into the teens when some are still expecting day two cap. That would shock a lot of people. But let's just look at this from a ZAP model's perspective. As you guys know, the model preferred neighbors to Marvin Harrison Junior last year. It wasn't by much, but he was right there technically ahead of him. Everyone would have thought that Marvin Harrison Junior would have been well ahead of Elikue Neighbors. That wasn't the case. They basically had the exact same score. And then go to the Gibbs and Bijon thing. Now I've revamped the model. The model actually now has Gibbs ahead of Bijeon. Now I had Bjeon ahead of Gibbs when that draft class was drafted. And when we're talking about elite players like this, we're really splitting hairs like there's not some massive difference. But that's the point here, right, There wasn't a big difference in the model between Neighbors and Marvin Harrison Junior. There wasn't some big, big difference. Even before the model changes, there wasn't a big, big difference between Gibbs and Bjeon Robinson. I think the only way we don't see more than a point difference in ZAP score, which is more than what Neighbors and hair and saw and gibbson Bijon saw. The only way there isn't more than a point difference between genty and Hampton is if genty slips in the draft and Hampton goes a lot higher than expected. I think it would be pretty shocking if Gent goes after Amari and Hampton, and Gent's marks in the model, they look so good that that's what it would take for Hampton to potentially leapfrog him. And I say potentially because he still might not even if he had better draft capital. But like right now, let's say that Gent goes tenth to the Bears, Hampton goes twelfth to the Cowboys. In that scenario, Gent would have a ninety nine score in the ZAP model. Hampton's score would be ninety eight point three. That's basically the one scenario where the narratives that you're referring to would make sense. But to me, that's the high end outcome for Hampton is probably like a thirtieth to fiftieth percentile outcome for Ash and genty because people are talking about genty going sixth overall and look, I like Hampton a lot. I literally didn't email Blast last week with the subject line Amari and Hampton is him. I think Hampton is in a tier of his own ahead of the Ohio State guys ahead of Caleb Johnson. I just don't think that he's in Genties tier. The last question this week is from twitters from at Dynasty Dude ninety nine. It says, who are some rookies that you're higher on than the consensus and or who are some round three or four players you're targeting in rookie drafts. So when I do the Prospect Guide each year, I write up the whole entire thing. I do prospect profiles. This year, like I said earlier, I did eighty write ups, and then after it's all done, I do my rankings, and then once those rankings are done, I finally compare them to what the consensus is saying. And this year there were definitely some players that I thought were ranked way too low by the consensus, at least according to what I'm seeing over on Keep Trade Cut. Now, since you're asking about round three, round four rookies, which I assume you from rookie drafts, I'll focus on guys who are sort of passed the twenty fourth overall pick on Keep Trade Cut right now, and I'll look at super flex leagues just to give myself a little bit more room to talk about some guys that I like to talk about first, Like I said earlier, I like both Iowa state wide receivers. They're two very different wideouts, but I talked about it earlier with their comps. I think there's a decent ceiling with both players. Jayden Higgins should be able to win a lot of systems where I think Jalen nol might be a little bit more landing spot dependent, but Higgins is the perimeter guy. Nol moore than slot, but both have a chance to win at the next level. They're looking like positive draft capital delta players in the model, which means the models likely to view them favorably versus where they're drafted their actual draft capital. Now bea j'all touton he was something I mentioned on the running back episode that I did a handful of weeks back before the NFL Combine, and then he went out and he crushed the combine. So I liked him pre combine because his metrics in the zapp model looked pretty good, and then he looked like a really, really good athlete. Now, if he goes top two hundred in the draft, he'll become just the fourth running back in the zap Model database with top two hundred draft capital and a one hundred and ten speed scorer while measuring under five foot ten and two hundred and fifteen pounds. So to put that all another way, he's fast for his size, but his size isn't that huge. The other three backs are Jerck McKinnon, Kenneth Walker, who I think Tutin kind of comps to on the higher end, and then Jamier Gibbs. I really really hope that Tutin gets Day two draft capital because he's a home run threat who can catch passes out of the backfield. Now, with that being said, I think there's some volatility here. I think the upside comp, like I said, it's kind of like Kenneth Walker. The downside comp was Darrnton Evans. So I don't think he's a flawless prospect by any means. But probably the one player who I thought was just insanely undervalued when I did my rankings was DJ Giddens. This is straight from the Prospect Guy quote. Let's have some fun with numbers. There are only nine running backs in the model's database who had a speed score of at least one hundred and ten. A breakout score of at least seventy five and a best season total yards per team play rate north of two. Those guys are stud after stud Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Naji Harris, Breis Hall, and Kenneth Walker. Giddins hit those marks. Now. I started that section off by saying, let's have some fun with numbers, because I'm using Gidden's numbers as a baseline here, which means everyone on that list pretty much had better numbers than Giddons, but it's still a pretty cool list to be part of. Giddins has solid size, he tests as an awesome athlete, and he has just enough to his receiving profile to tell me that he can be a three down back in the NFL. So if he goes Day two, watch out. I'm also a fan of Jarquez Hunter. I think he checks a lot of bocks. He may be a little bit undersized at two hundred and four pounds, but he's not super tall. He's five foot nine. His build is actually fine. He had a really good breakout score in the model and compared to the rest of the class, Hunter was fifth in career avoided tackles per rush. It's according to PFF data. He was ninth and career explosive run rate, and he was ninth in career yards after contact per attempt, and that's within a loaded class. So I think he's really undervalued right now, though I do expect him to go on Day three and then I'll give you one more rocket, Sanders. If you want a really simple way to spot upside running back value in fantasy, first find pass catchers, but also find pass catchers who are big and fast, and that's what we get with Sanders. Sanders is one of thirteen running backs in zapmodel history, which dates back to twenty eleven who weighed two hundred and ten or more pounds of the combine, ran a sub four five forty, and had a breakout score above eighty. For those of you who don't know. Breakout score run is based on receiving yards per team pass attempt, so it's a pass catching metric. The other twelve backs are Charles Simms, CJ. Prosis, Jeremy McNichols, Caylin Bilage. Not good so far, but that it's DeMarco Murray. Saquon Barkley, Antonio Gibson, DeAndre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Breesaw, Kenneth Walker, and Bijon Robinson. Now, the problem is that obviously Sanders fits more of the mold of the former group the worst running backs than the latter group because the former group had worst draft capital attached to them. But he dealt with injuries, he still had a pretty well rounded production profile. He's almost definitely gonna look strong in the model post draft versus where he was drafted. But as we know, day three picks aren't going to pan out at a super high rate. We can't get our hopes up too too high. But I do think that Rocket Sanders looks good objectively and analytically. So that's my list here in March. There's definitely more, but I think those are some of the bigger ones who stood out, and of course this is very very subject to change. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. Interpret to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I hope you have a great weekend. I'll talk to you next week.