889: Mailbag 6/28/24

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacharthas j J Zachersa.

00:00:11
Speaker 2: Jesus, what's up everyone?

00:00:12
Speaker 1: It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode eight and eighty nine of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in before getting into the questions this week, this is another reminder to check out Underdog Fantasy.

00:00:28
Speaker 2: I've got a legit offer for you.

00:00:30
Speaker 1: As you know, the Late Round Draft Guide is currently available for pre order for nineteen ninety nine. It's the piece of content that I put by far the most time into each year. You can get that guide for absolutely free if you've never played it Underdog. Here's how you do it. Head to underdog Fantasy dot com. Sign up. When you sign up, use promo code late Round, and then make a deposit on July first, so just a couple of days from now, when the guide launches, you'll get an email with a link to download that guide. You'll also be getting a deposit offer when you make your deposit, so there's really nothing to lose here, especially if you were planning on getting that guide anyway, So check it out Underdog Fantasy dot com or download the Underdog app. When you sign up and you make a deposit, use promo code late Round. The first question this week is an email. It says, hi, JJ, love your work.

00:01:23
Speaker 2: Thanks.

00:01:24
Speaker 1: You have shown in the past how having a rookie quarterback can statistically have a negative impact on fantasy production for all other player positions. However, is it worse than poor quarterback play? More specifically, do you think the commanders and Bearer's position players will have reduced fantasy production even if the rookies entering show more talent than their incumbents. And yes, I know Jaden Daniels is a rushing quarterback, which also has a negative impact on player fantasy production, But am I wrong to think that he still might be better for that offense than Sam Howe? Can Caleb Williams give Dj Moore a better season than fields? Thank you so much for your insight. Can't wait for the release of the Draft Guide. Eric, So, I think a lot of people have this thought process and then ask this exact question. I JJ sid on this podcast and talk about how rookie quarterbacks are generally bad for their pass catchers, which they objectively are. This is in the Draft Guide, but since twenty fourteen, there have been one hundred and fifty nine wide receivers who were drafted in the top seventy two at the position and scored fifteen or more PPR points per game. Now, I say who were drafted in the top seventy two because I was doing research on average draft position. Technically there are six more players in general who got to that number, and these one hundred and fifty nine wide receivers are wide receiver seasons because a wide out could get to that fifteen point per game number more than once. Out of those one hundred and fifty nine, guess how many of them had a rookie quarterback play for the majority of the season.

00:02:59
Speaker 2: Four of them.

00:03:01
Speaker 1: Now, this technically doesn't include Tank Dell because he didn't have an ADP that high, and I believe he's the only one of the six who played with a rookie quarterback who got to fifteen PPR points per game, and he was exactly at fifteen PPR points per game.

00:03:15
Speaker 2: But even still, let's just throw Tank Dell in there.

00:03:19
Speaker 1: That's five of one hundred and sixty wide receiver seasons, five of one hundred and sixty who are giving you what mid range wide receiver two numbers. Now, that statistic admittedly sounds a lot cooler than it actually is. Rookie quarterbacks definitely aren't boosting their wide receivers, but there haven't been a ton of rookie quarterbacks in general over this timeframe. In the end, the rate of getting to fifteen or more PPR points per game for a wide receiver with a rookie quarterback when they've been top seventy two wide receiver picks, it's been eight point three percent. For non rookie quarterbacks, it's twenty five point eight percent. And the players with non rookie quarterbacks are beating eightyp at a higher rate too, which is really important to look at here because wide receivers with rookie quarterbacks they're gonna get drafted later more than likely. Now, I say all that just to reinforce the general idea that, yes, wide receivers with rookie quarterbacks don't have the same type of sealing as the alternative. The reason for that is because rookie quarterbacks aren't as good. Their offenses don't score as many points, and they average fewer yards per play. So your question if the previous quarterback was also not good, then no, we shouldn't consider the rookie quarterback at downgrade.

00:04:38
Speaker 2: DJ Moore.

00:04:38
Speaker 1: Going from Justin Fields to Kayleb Williams is probably gonna be an upgrade. Kayleb Williams will probably be a better quarterback than Justin Fields. The issue for more is that he's now competing with Keenan Allen and Romadonsay, and there's a chance, a chance that the market just overstates the impact that Kayleb Williams is going to have because rookie quarter in general don't perform that well. My thing is, I don't think we should just simply look at previous year numbers and attach him to the current season. DJ Moore is a great example of that. He finished with sixteen point nine Ppier points per game last year. That was on a team with honestly horrific quarterback play, at least from a passing perspective. A lot of people will just look at that number and assume that he can maintain that or even exceed it because he's getting the perceived quarterback upgrade. It's just not that simple. There's statistical regression, there's competition for targets, there's changes in coordinators, so many things are different year over year. But to your question, no, a rookie quarterback is not automatically worse than poor quarterback play. It's just that rookie quarterbacks often bring poor quarterback play and the market doesn't always recognize that. The next question is from Nathan on Patreon and says, hey, JJA, I recently did a startup dynasty superflex draft and use your rankings for reference. What is your advice when it comes to positional need versus best player available? Would you keep taking quarterbacks after you already have two starters if that's where you see the most value.

00:06:15
Speaker 2: Thanks.

00:06:17
Speaker 1: One of the things that I really really try to drive home in the draft guide this year is the importance of being nimble, the importance of being flexible. A lot of fantasy managers enter a draft with a ranking sheet and that's it. And Nathan, I'm not saying that that's you. I'm not saying that's all you're doing. But the majority of fantasy managers just have a ranking sheet and they're gonna draft off of that sheet. It's fine to have that as a reference, but you really need to recognize your individual league's economy, your individual league's market, like Nathan. In this example, you say that there's a quarterback who's the quote best player available, but you already had two quarterbacks. I'd ask you why you think that quarterback is the best player available. Is it because of what my rankings are showing, or is it based on your own evaluation of what your league is doing and how you believe your league is going to value players. Pretend you get a ranking sheet for a tight end premium league and there are five tight ends listed in the top thirty. Five tight ends should go in the first two and a half rounds of your twelve team league. Let's say that you're drafting in the middle. You've got pick thirty. It comes to you and not a single tight end has been drafted. You might want to take the tight end there. Sure, you take one, and then not a single tight end gets drafted until your fourth round pick. So you say to yourself, Okay, I can still look at this as the best value. I can play a tight end in the flex too, so I'm gonna get another tight end. But what if that same thing happens again in the fifth round. You obviously can't just keep drafting tight ends because number one you've got other positions that you need to fill. Number Two, you need to recognize your individual leagues economy. Yes, there's definitely a possibility that your league realizes they were stupid during their draft and that those tight ends are more valuable than they initially thought. But at the same time they might not. This might be a you problem. Maybe you just completely ignored other factors going on in your league, like maybe you can't start a tight end in the flex, and you just assume that people would be drafting tight ends early and then they didn't.

00:08:28
Speaker 2: At some point, you've.

00:08:29
Speaker 1: Got to look at how you're analyzing the league. And this is really the problem with rankings, which are usually a one size fits all type of thing. Settings vary from league to league. What you think is the best player available may not always be the best player available because the pricing of your individual league matters. Now, I can't answer this specific question or questions even like this, because I need to know the board, I need to know your exact situation. I need to know the choices that we're sitting in front of you. Are there times where I go with what I perceive as the best player available over a need. Yeah, of course, but typically that decision is based off of the two factors that I'm talking about here, what my own analysis says, and what the individual market is saying, what my league is saying. So that's my advice. It's fine to go with what you're referring to as best player available. Just remember that the word best is subjective. You should still be focused on higher and demand positions throughout your draft because you know someone will always need those positions. Otherwise you can get stuck. This Best Questions from twitters from at bronton twenty one. It says one of the most polarizing players this offseason is Jamison Williams. Matt Harmon recently noted that his reception perception data was trending upwards towards the end of the year. Dan Campbell called him the most improved player going into the season with Josh Reynolds gone. What are your expectations of JMO in twenty twenty four.

00:10:01
Speaker 2: Now, I know.

00:10:01
Speaker 1: People are gonna get angry for how I'm gonna start this answer, but Jamison Williams has played two years in the league so far. I understand he started off injured, but he's been in the NFL for two seasons, he scored two point five and six point seven PPR points per game in those two years. Of all the players in my prospect database, which include every wide receiver who was drafted or at the NFL combine since twenty eleven, we've had well over five hundred guys failed to reach seven PPR points per game in each of their first two seasons. That's because undrafted players late round picks, they're part of that data set, and for the record, they need to play at least eight games in the season to qualify, otherwise they got a zero for that season in points per game. Now, of those more than five hundred wide receivers, guess how many scored double digit PPR points per game in year three?

00:10:54
Speaker 2: Eight of them?

00:10:55
Speaker 1: And guess how many of those eight scored thirteen PPR points per game which aren't even wider receiver two numbers zero of them. The why nots that we're talking about here are guys like Willie Snead and Quincy and Noonwa and Nelson Agalore. It's so so rare for studs to emerge from situations like this, and sure this situation is different. Not everyone is coming off of a torn acl when entering the NFL. So let's give Jamison Williams the benefit of the doubt.

00:11:23
Speaker 2: Let's look at year two.

00:11:24
Speaker 1: Jamison Williams only year two, and let's assume that that was his rookie season. Williams finished last year, like I said, with six point seven PPR points per game. Of the many, many wide receivers in the Prospect database who failed to get to seven PPR points per game as a rookie, guess how many got to ten or more points per game as second year players. Fifteen of them. Three of them scored fifteen or more PPR points per game. None of them were over sixteen. In other words, there was a very small chance of them being pretty good players in fantasy football. And I understand that's not what we're signing up for. We're not signing up for Jamison Williams to be a wide receiver one. I'm more so bringing up the ceiling thing just to say that you probably won't be burned if you don't draft Jamison Williams. History tells us that a higher end outcome based solely on PPR points per game, which is predicted by the way. History tells us that a higher end outcome is more in like wide receiver three, wide receiver four range. That's a realistic high end outcome for Jamison Williams, maybe low end wide receiver two. Now I would feel more strongly if his per route numbers and his peripherals were stronger. We don't have to only look at PPR points per game. He saw a target on seventeen percent of his routes last year, that was below average among all wide receivers with two hundred and more routes run. His yards per route run one point four to one that was also a below average number. Now, I don't mind getting Williams in best ball snacks, and he should have typical big playability that we all know is there. But I would be very surprised if he's someone that we look back on and say, man, I got really burned by passing on Jamison Williams this year. His cost is fine. I'm not even dramatically different than the market with Jamison Williams. I recognize that he was a good prospect, but this isn't a profile even when you account for his year one injury that typically wins your fantasy league. The last question this week is from Patreon it's from Jamie. It says, historically it's been suboptimal to draft an elite player at quarterback and tight end in our season long drafts because of what we're giving up at running back and wide receiver, with ADP seemingly sharper than ever at quarterback, and you're feeling that tight end will be the biggest make or break position in finding an edge this year, should we be considering taking a top six guy in both places? So I think, first and foremost my tight end comments are more so about best ball than season long, and the reason I keep bringing up is because the strategy at that position can be so different from one team to the next. Most teams are gonna get their typical running backs and wide receivers, and they're gonna do it early. In the quarterback landscape, it's fairly linear and efficient. Not only are guys ranked generally where they should be ranked, in my opinion, but there are pockets where you can attack the position throughout your draft. Maybe you could make that same argument at tight end, but there are larger gaps between those pockets, which means you have to make a very real decision in round four, five, and six about whether or not you're gonna get one of those higher end tight ends. Now, the question is can you take on both an elite quarterback and an elite tight end this year? And I think the answer to that every year is technically yes. Similar to what's been said on becoming a best ball bro and for the record, I'm not talking about best ball here, I'm talking about season long.

00:14:51
Speaker 2: But as so many guests on.

00:14:52
Speaker 1: Becoming a best ball brow have said, you just need to balance out the capital spent later on in your draft. If you don't get that position early. If you go with a running back heavy approach, make sure you're not going crazy with late round running backs as well. You need more wide receivers on your roster. In that case, you need to play the numbers game to just have more chances of hitting on the position. Taking on both a high end quarterback and tight end means a lot of opportunity cost is involved here. The nice part is, though, there's a chance that we won't have to worry about those two positions in the first two, maybe even three rounds of our drafts this year.

00:15:29
Speaker 2: I think we will in more casual.

00:15:30
Speaker 1: Leagues, more home leagues, but eightyp wise, we may not see a quarterback or tight end go in round one to round two. Josh Allen, according to Fantasy Pros, is being ranked twenty first overall. But we know there's gonna be leagues where every quarterback isn't drafted that high. Just look at Best Ball drafts right now. You're frequently seeing zero quarterbacks and zero tight ends get drafted through the first three rounds. And based on history, that's actually pretty significant because the first two round are massive at running back and wide receiver. You typically get really good hit rates there, so when you opt for a quarterback or you opt for a tight end, you're not getting those really good running backs and wide receivers. That's why it's significant. So considering that hypothetically, yes, I think if there's a year where you can get a tight end and quarterback at the top of your draft, it's probably twenty twenty four. But I'd still reserve that type of opportunity cost for number one shallower leagues because every team needs to be excellent in a smaller league. You need an optimal roster In eight or ten team leagues, and the waiver wire in those leagues is going to be better too. And then you might be able to get away with something like this and more inexperienced leagues because you know you'll be able to find value later. If people are drafting kickers in round five, sure you might be able to get a quarterback and a tight end early. So I wouldn't advise you to do this consistently because of opportunity cost, but because tight ends are being drafted a little bit later this year, and because we know quarterback has become more predictable, there are some leagues where this is actually reasonable and I would have never said something like that five or six years ago. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Just so everyone's aware. There's gonna be a gap in podcast programming next week, even the fourth of July holiday, but things will really heat up the week after that where the podcast gets back on schedule, So get ready for the Draft guide to drop in just a couple of days. Make sure you're using promo code late round on Underdog and enjoy family and friends over the fourth of July.

00:17:45
Speaker 2: I'll talk to you soon.