654: Mailbag 7/15/22

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen and this is episode six hundred and fifty four of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before get into the mailbag questions, this week, I want to give a shout to the Established the Run podcast. The podcast is free and it's hosted by two legends in the fantasy football space, Adam Levitan and Evan Silva. You probably remember them from their time at Roade World. Established the Run episodes are quick, fun and packed with analysis. They cover fantasy news and reactions, rankings, how to bet, player props, best ball, and more. As I've been saying, I think it's a great compliment to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast because it's more conversational in nature and they cover topics that I might not cover. I'm a longtime listener. I can vouch that they know what they're talking about. So check out the Established the Run podcast anywhere you listen to podcasts, and don't fort to sign up for Fandle Fantasy for users, you have to make a deposit on Fandle Fantasy. You can deposit today to receive two free entries. All you have to do is deposit a minimum of ten dollars in your Fandle DFS account. You'll be instantly rewarded with two free vouchers. Be sure to deposit now and play for free. Head over to fandle dot com or download the Fandle Fantasy app today. Eligibility destrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandel app for more details. The first question this week is from Patreon, and it's from Clay. It says, hi, JJ Denver has a brand new situation in both quarterback and play caller Nate Tice lovingly refers to Russell wilson led offenses as quote where tight ends go to die. My question to you is do we fade the Denver tight ends because Wilson historically doesn't use them? Or put differently in your analysis, how much weight is put into quarterback tendencies versus play calling or, in this specific case, the unknown of a new regimes play calling. I actually don't know if I totally agree with this idea that Russell Wilson doesn't target tight ends or use tight ends. Russell Wilson entered the league in twenty twelve, and since that point in time, the Seahawks averaged a twenty one point seven percent tight end target share per season. That's actually about a full percentage point above the league average during this timeframe. And during this time unsurprisingly, three of the four best adjusted target share seasons that's target shair adjusted for games played. Three of the four best came from Jimmy Graham in that offense, who was the best tight end objectively that Russell Wilson has ever had. Now, Graham was never a leader or anything like that in Seattle, and maybe that was somewhat based on the offense or based on Russell Wilson, but he also just wasn't the same type of player or exactly the same type of player that he was in New Orleans. But overall, I don't know if tight ends are automatically terrible with Russell Wilson. And not only that, but I found that there is correlation in fantasy football between late round tight ends or tight ends drafted in the middle rounds as well and elite quarterback play. I don't think that there's necessarily enough evidence to say that Russell Wilson doesn't like tight ends as it pertains to projections. Though I'm a believer that good players earn volume or some baseline volume, So if Alberdau is good, he should be fine. And at tight end, a player can hit a sixteen percent target share and still be viable if they're efficient enough, which Albertau might be because last year he was six Then yards per route run at tight end among the forty five tight ends with thirty or more targets. So if that translates and Albertau is a really good player, then I would expect target chair to still go his way. But competition and the ambiguity surrounding Wilson in his tendencies, that's definitely why a player like Alberto is a late round pick right now. So to answer your question directly, I consider everything. I do think there are some tendencies that are hard to ignore, but this one with Russ and with tight ends, I'm not sure that something that you'd run to weigh heavily when deciding whether or not to draft Albertoh. This last question is from at don Kamuna. It says, what are your takes on Chase Edmonds seems to be a polarizing player in the fantasy community. So I realized that someone had asked me about Chase Edmonds last week, and I said that I would go over it on Monday Show, and then I didn't go over it. But if you didn't listen to that breakout running back show from earlier in the week, go do that now, because Edmunds does fit a lot of that criteria. He's an RB one and he's in an ambiguous backfield, he's a pass catcher, he's not past his fifth NFL season. Like, do I think that he's someone who's going to be a league winning player? Like? Do I think that Chase Edmonds has the same upside as Tony Pollard. No, I don't think so. But I do think that if you're looking for a player who can exceed ADP and that expectation where he's being drafted, if you just want value, Edmonds makes plenty of sense, especially in full PPR. He's someone who should be able to hit a double digit percentage target share in that offense, and if he gets over the one hundred and twenty or one hundred and thirty rush attempt mark, then you're in business. And we know Raheem Mostert hasn't been the healthiest running back through the years. The next question is from at Studs and Scrubs. It says, is the recent trend of one rookie running back finishing in the top ten most years signal or noise? Can the process make a bowl case out of Breeze Hall given the selection of high upside rookie backs is slim. So I don't think I would just solely draft off of a statistic that shows that a rookie running back consistently finishes in the top ten. But it does let you know that you obviously shouldn't just go the other direction. That rookies can be impactful. And I talked about this on the running Back Dead Zone episode from last month, and even Monday's episodes sort of talked about this. But age is important when you compare players success in production to how the market viewed that player. The market is generally undervaluing younger, unproven players in redraft leagues, but those players generally have a lot of talent. I'm very much in on Breeze Hall this year. It's not because so many running backs have finished in the top ten historically. I mean that's fine and good to know in all that, but it's because he's being pushed down in ADP essentially because of Michael Carter and the overall situation on offense. How do I know this, Because if that backfield was only by himself, if he was alone in that backfield, people would probably draft Hall closer to where they drafted Najie Harris last year. Maybe not quite as high, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was like an early third round pick. But over on fantasy pros, he's a fourth rounder and best ball drafts he's a fourth round pick. My hypothesis as to why rookie running backs tend to do well out of the dead zone is that the dead zone is driven by opportunity and not talent. Managers force the pick. They force inferior talent onto their fantasy rosters because they're trying to fill the running back position. But those players in the dead zone are just projected to see high volume. They're not studs. They're not locked into these roles. Think about Mike Davis last year. That's a huge reason was fading Davis last season. But with rookies, they're in the dead zone because of ambiguity. People are afraid that they're not good, or they're afraid that they won't see a big workload because their first year players. But if we use our evidence, like my model where Breeze Hall got drafted, all that kind of evidence, it shows us that Hall has a lot of talent. So I'm more than fine taking him this year because I believe talent can win out in a big way when a player is this good. I actually just took him in the scott Fish Bowl. So draft Breeze Hall this. The next question is from Ryan that says, JJ love the show. Thanks. I also love being part of the Patreon community. Awesome. I know how you feel about the Giants in general this season and also about Kadarius Tony, but I was curious what your outlook on Wandell Robinson is. The Giants went to go get him in the second round when it seemed like he was going to be a third round plus guy. Yeah, so spoiler alert, But Wandale Robinson he's one of my late round dart throws in the Late Round Draft Guide, which you can purchase over on lateround dot com right now. My model really liked Robinson, but he was undersized. I talked about this on the show. There's at least some concern there, but I'm still higher than the consensus on Wandell Robinson, and I know that because he's on a lot of my dynasty rosters right now. As you said, the Giants picked Robinson pretty early in the draft, and Robinson was Pro Football Focus's third best slot receiver last year, and the Giants' main slot guy, Sterling Shepherd is recovering from an achilles injury. It's really hard to imagine a late season Achilles not getting in Shepherd's way this year. Kadarius Tony can play the slot too, but he can also move to the outside, So I'm envisioning Wandell being their slot guy right away. And if Tony bus or if Tony isn't what they want, because remember this regime didn't draft Kadarius Tony, then that's even better news for Wandell Robinson. So yes, I'm in on Robinson in all fantasy formats. This last question is from Paxman from Patreon. It says, hey, JJ, I need your help. The consensus is much higher on aj Brown than I am. This is making me worry about DeVante Smith. I thought Smith had a very good rookie year, but I'm worried that Jalen can't support two fantasy wide receivers. And if the Eagles are going to be a run first team, is Smith a value or should I be fading him for other options at his ADP so I talked about this on the Team Regression episode and it's in the guide as well. But I fully expect the Eagles to be more pass heavy this year for a ton of reasons. Maintaining their run rates from the second half of last year is going to be really, really difficult. And yes, there's plenty of worry with Hurts at quarterback. It's not like he's a proven passer or anything. But I think in situations like this, we just had to expand our minds a little bit and think about the variety of outcomes that can occur here. I fully expect aj Brown to perform better than DeVante Smith, but there's a non zero chance that Smith ends up with a higher target share in this offense. And guys, please don't stretch that and take it the wrong way. I'm not projecting that. I'm merely saying that a second year wide receiver who won the Heisman was a top half first round pick, had a sweet production profile, and had a really underrated rookie season. I'm just saying that it's not impossible compared to a guy who's shifting teams. And I love AJ Brown and I'll begin into this on next week's Breakout Wide Receiver show, but second year middle round wide receivers are awesome. Even if the projection for Devonte Smith looks more like a wide receiver three, You've got to remember that variance exists, and you should use these other things that have won in that ADP range historically. Because I'm a believer in Devonte Smith the talent, I'm still in. I talked about this on the show around draft time that when the Eagles got AJ Brown is a perfect time to buy Devonte Smith because he's a good player. But I'm still in because I know my team level projection for Philly can be wrong, and I know there's still a chance that Hurts takes a step forward as a quarterback as a passer. It's not like you're spending a fourth round pick to get Devonte Smith. He's being ranked eighty seventh overall over on Fantasy Pros right now. In half PPR formats, I have him like twenty five spots ahead of that. That's partially because I favor wide receivers in my rankings, but even within the position, I have Smith at wide receiver thirty rankers haven't at wide receiver thirty five. So I'm in with the understanding that it's not all butterflies and rainbows Situationally, It's just that when we're not talking about the extremes, like when we're not talking about an offense, it's bound to be run in a really conservative way that objectively limits the upside of its players. I'm gonna lean into player talent pretty heavily. That talent creates a nice baseline for opportunity. This ask questions from at skull Actuary. It says, why should I take Garrett Wilson over Sky Moore in a rookie draft? Vegas lines have Sky superior to Wilson in many categories, and he has a locked in quarterback. They produce equally. Won't Sky be viewed higher in the offseason? Thanks, So these questions, the last one, this one, and the final one which is next, they all follow a similar theme, and that theme is talent versus situation. Situation matters. In fantasy football, I build projections. I see it firsthand every single year. I know that situation matters. But it's very, very easy to overstate situation. You can think about this with anything in your life, any sort of competition. I'm sure ninety nine percent of you have played cornhole before, and cornhole, you're throwing four bags per round. Right, Imagine a world where you're only throwing two of them, but your opponent is still throwing four. Your situation sucks. Your opponent's situation is great because your opponent is facing someone who's only throwing two bags per round. Okay, Now, imagine your opponent is my soon to be four year old daughter, who can't even throw the bean bag far enough to hit the board. Even if my daughter has a hundred bags, you're still gonna win with just two because from a talent perspective, she's not there yet. She physically cannot do it. Someday she'll be there because her dad loves him some cornhole. He's gonna undoubtedly play with her all the time. But the talent side of the equation matters. Now that's obviously an extreme example, but far too often people act like there's no talent discrepancy between players, when there absolutely is all the time. Sky Moore is a good prospect. My model liked sky Moore, I like him a lot, but Garrett Wilson was exceptionally good. He rated a lot better in that model, which doesn't factor in team landing spot or situation. So yeah, you can bump sky Moore up just a little bit for the fact that he's gonna be playing with Patrick Mahomes. But it's not like every wide receiver who's ever played with Patrick Mahomes has been good. In fact, most of them haven't been fantasy relevant, and it's because of talent. You think that if Patrick Mahomes had Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelcey, and Justin Jefferson, that Jefferson would be performing like Mikole Hardman. Of course not. Jefferson would be crushing because he's super, super talented. And this isn't a knock on sky Moore. Like I said, I like more. You just asked a question about him compared to a very good prospect, and Garrett Wilson being a better player matters in fantasy football because it can mean better efficiency, but more importantly, it can mean more volume. Volume is what matters in fantasy football, and volume is what's given to players who are good at the game. Situation can give us some sort of baseline, and it can give a player some sort of ceiling too, Like Darnell Mooney. Darnell Mooney is over on Chicago without a whole lot of competition, Chances are he's gonna have a nice target share, floor and ceiling. Sure, but Mooney still has to be good in order to see that volume. If that wasn't the case, then why wouldn't we just project Byron Pringle and to Kiel Harry to see similar volume. Is because Mooney is far superior as a player. Looking at rejected lines for this season isn't really gonna help you in dynasty because things change and those numbers are not always right. What if Zach Wilson is awesome or what if he sucks and the Jets get an awesome quarterback? You should always be leading with talent for that reason too. This isn't to say that Sky Moore will not be better than Garrett Wilson. Of course that's possible. This is a probability driven game. It's just that when you approach the game in a particular way. If you lead with talent before situation, and you do that with every single player, you're gonna win out in the long run. Now, the last question this week is from g Hound one point eight nine from Patreon. It says, Hi, JJ, love the pod and all your data driven content. Thank you. I believe you have said you generally prefer to avoid middle round tight ends. However, how do you feel about Dalton Schultz this year? Feels like he has set up for a sizeable target share and he's proven that he can be successful already. Mark Andrews in the middle rounds last year helped me win my league, So I'm wondering if it's worth taking that risk again. Thanks. So this is another example of this intersection of talent and situation. A lot of people call it talent and opportunity, but opportunity is given to talented players. It's more talent and situation. Now. I had a long Twitter thread about Dalton Schultz on Wednesday because his ADP is getting really, really high. Basically, the main argument I see for Schultz right now is that he was the tight end three in total scoring last year at tight end and his situation only got better That was one of the main arguments people said in my mentions when I was tweeting about Dalton Schultz, and that's not wrong. There's less in the way for volume right now with Amari Cooper, Gohann, Michael Gallup being banged up, there's a lot less in the way for Dalton Schultz. Who else is Dak Prescott going to throw to? And he was the tight end three in total points last year, But there's a lot of context missing here. Yes, he was the tight end three, but we've got to start using points per game as our go to for this kind of analysis. He was the tight end five half PPR points per game and the tight end nine. Dallas Goddard scored less than one point per game below Schultz last year. Schultz himself was eighth in the league and tight end target share, but when you look at tight ends who played more than eight games last season and you look at target share per game, he was thirteenth. Players like Dallas Goddard, Noah Fant, Mika Sicki, Cole Kmet, they all had higher target share per game rates than Dalton Schultz. Yards per out run, Schultz was completely middle of the pack in both yards per rout run and targets per out run among fifty plus target tight ends. He was fine last year, but he wasn't consistently posting elite numbers and elite peripherals. And I'm not even sitting here saying that Dalton Schultz is bad. I think Schultz is a good tight end, and he's still tight end six in my rankings. But this is another problem. We've got to stop only looking at where you have players ranked within their position. I may have Schultz at tight end six and he's being drafted as the tight end six, but I still have him valued far past his ADP because I don't see the same gap between him and someone like Dallas Goddard or even TJ. Howkinson. The gap exists, sure, that's why I haven't met tight end six. But in Best Ball drafts right now, Dalton Schultz is going thirty picks before Dallas Goddard thirty. And that's not thirty late round picks. Those are thirty middle round picks. The opportunity cost there is big, But my argument for Schultz is not a floor argument. I think Schultz is a pretty good bet to finish as like a top eight tight end. This year. My argument is a ceiling one because with the tight end position, a position where you only need one in a normal starting lineup in fantasy, you really really need difference makers. In most cases in fantasy, you don't want to draft a player from to just meet expectation, but with tight ends specifically, where there's just such a big gap after the elite players, you should be striving to get a player who's elite. Now. I have a chart in the Late Round Draft Guy that shows each round in the face Fantasy draft versus the frequency that a tight end from that round has hit a certain points per game threshold. So, for example, fifty percent of round one tight end since twenty eleven have hit sixteen PPR points per game, about forty two percent of round ten tight ends have hit twelve PPR points per game. One thing that's totally obvious from that chart is how tight ends drafted and the double digit rounds are often out producing tight ends drafted in the middle rounds. And that's especially true when those middle round tight ends aren't the first pass catcher being drafted from their team, like Mark Andrews was last year. But I'll get to that more on the breakout tight Ends episode. The point is middle round tight ends. Tight ends drafted between rounds six and nine, they've historically been pretty bad bets, which is another reason to not buy into the ADP bump for Dalton Schultz. And I don't think fantasy managers always can grasp how difficult it is for a tight end to be a huge difference maker. Over the last three seasons, the tight end three in fantasy football. If we assume the tight end three is giving you some sort of edge, that player has averaged twelve point three half PPR points per game. Just for reference, Schultz was under ten last year. He was at like nine point nine to nine half PPR points per game. Using that twelve point three points per game threshold, we've had twenty seven instances where a tight end has hit that since twenty eleven last year. The two that hit that were Travis Kelcey and Mark Andrews, because again we're looking for elite players at the position difference makers. Now, of those twenty seven, we had fourteen unique tight ends. Because players are hitting this mark more than once. Ten did it once, four did it more than once. George Kittle is one of the players who has done it. More than once. He's done it three times actually, and Kittle right now is going just a round ahead of Dalton Schultz and Best Ball drafts. But let's take this a step further. Among these seasons, the average target share per game rate was twenty three point one percent, So of our elite tight ends, they average a target chair per game of about twenty three percent, and over sixty three percent of these players were over a twenty two percent target chair. But then, on top of that, the lowest yards per route run rate among these twenty seven instances was one point seven to two. Schultz was at one point four to seven last year, by far a career high. So maybe you feel optimistic about situation for Dalton Schultz that because of the lack of competition, he can get to that twenty two percent target chair. Now, I'd say that's pretty optimistic considering he averaged a target share per game of seventeen percent without Amari Cooper in the lineup for two games last year. But let's just run with it. Let's be optimistic. If he gets to that twenty two percent target shair mark, he's also going to have to really improve in yards per route run. Schultz just doesn't profile as one of the typical elite difference making tight ends that we've seen in the past, right, Like, we can all agree there, he's not George Kittle or Darren Waller or Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews even physically, He's more like a player like zachar and Zach Ertz. By the way, he did make that list, that elite list. He made it once back in twenty eighteen, but it took Ertz a twenty six point five percent target chair that year to get there. That's the third highest tight end target share season since twenty eleven. Is that really what we want to bank on? And not only that, but what happens when Michael Gallup returns, what happens if Jalen Tolbert emerges as a rookie, especially during the second half of the season. That's when we know rookie wide out see better production all of a sudden, During the biggest time of the fantasy football season, the second half of the year, the playoffs, the championship, Dalton Schultz has more competition for targets. So the argument about situation is at least weakened because Michael Gallup would return and there's a possible emergence of another wide receiver in this lineup. I can't drive this point home enough. Historically in fantasy football, like we have so much data on this, but historically in fantasy football, you absolutely do not want your middle round tight ends to just meet expectation. You need a ceiling. It's why having a stars and scrubs approach to the position each year makes so much sense. I just don't see Schultz having that ceiling. I think he can finish in the top eight. I think he could even finish in the top five in points per game if things don't go the way that we think they're gonna go with the other top five tight ends, or if they deal with an injury or something. But there's no reason, according to my projections, according to my research, that he should be drafted ahead of some of the elite quarterbacks this year and some of the really talented second year wide receivers. And that's what's happening right now. It's just a really tough one to buy into. That's why Schultz's ADP needs to drop before I draft him, even though I do still have him at tight end six. That's gonna do it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and know for it to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. Remember to check out Late Round for the Draft Guide, the Late Round Fantasy Football newsletter, which is free, the Patreon all that good stuff. It's almost draft season. Make sure that you're set up to win. Enjoy your weekend, though, I'll talk to you next week