1042: Mailbag - Eagles Receivers, Tez Johnson, and More

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacherathas J J zacher Reefer. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten for two of the Late Round Fantasy football podcasts sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code Late Round to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler New York call eight seven to seven eight Hope n Why in Connecticut call eighty eight seventy nine seven seven seven seven eighteen plus most states. Eligibillionstritions apply ends December thirty first See terms at DraftKings dot com Slash Promotions. It's mail Bag Day question Time. The first question this week is from Patreon. It's from Andre. It says, Hey, JJ, now that we're in the second half of the season, what are the larger themes we should be aware of rookies starting to break out unknown league winners, particularly around the playoffs. How should we handle the back half of the season differently than the first half. Thanks, you have to think about what's different now compared to the start of the season, And what's different now is that we have a whole lot more information. We have a general idea of which players are the elite ones in fantasy, and we have a general idea of which defenses, which opponents are good and bad, and we can cater our strategy around those facts. Back in August, we could guess as to which schedules would be best in the fantasy playoffs, But we have more concrete evidence now, so when we're planning for the future, we can do it with a whole lot more confidence than we could six or seven weeks ago. So playing matchups, that's one thing that you can and should be doing differently. We also know your question alludes to that over a large sample, rookies tend to perform much better during the second half of the season versus the first. So the flyers that you've been holding on to, now isn't the time to drop those players if you can help it. We're gonna see a lot of rookie breakouts that were both expected and unexpected. I guarantee it, because we do every single year. The other thing is just general roster management. Like I said, we know which players are elite and which ones aren't at this point, like at a high level. And in turn, when you look at your own league, when you look at your roster and your league mates rosters, we know which teams are generally good and generally not good. Now, for the great teams, you may want to take a safer, lower variance approach to your lineup construction. You might want to handcuff your own running back or even trade for a handcuff, just to be on the safe side. Now, on the other end, let's say that you're two and five. Right now, you're really just crossing your fingers for some crazy stuff to happen in your favor. You probably don't want to roster your own running backs backup. Instead, get a backup from another backfield. Because of that other backfield starter goes down and injects a lot more optimism and a lot more upside into your two and five lineup. You really should be adjusting your roster build based on how your team is doing versus the rest of your league. I play pretty aggressively and I play with upside always in mind. But like I have some six and one teams right now where I'm like, Okay, maybe I should start thinking about the safety of these teams over the next month or so. And the same goes for trading. If you're on the weaker side record wise, if you really need to change things up, you might need to make an uncomfortable trade. There's no reason not to if your team is not performing objectively. This is the time of year where you really need to evaluate the current state of your team, then you can attack accordingly. I actually got this next question a couple of times this week, concluding from the Spotify comments section, but I picked this email from Allen. It says, hey, JJ, love your work. What was Tes Johnson's ZAP score and what should we expect from him both short and long term? Thanks Alan, So, Tes Johnson had a wonderful ZAP score of sixteen. That's right, it was basically non existent. Now, I wouldn't look too far into that specific number, and what I mean by that is I would just label it as bad. Rather than comparing a score of sixteen to a score of like twenty five. In the Prospect Guide each year, I show probability charts. They show you the probability of players in the past within specific buckets, getting the different points per game thresholds across their first three years in the league. There are six different categories that I categorize these prospects into. I started doing this this past year because it gives people more context about the ZAPP scores themselves. But Johnson falls into the lowest category, the dart throw category. But that category ranges from a ZAP score of zero all the way to a ZAP score of about twenty eight. And then there's the waiver wire ad category that goes from twenty eight to about fifty two. The bottom line, though, is that dart throws, waiver wire ads, both of those categories, both of those buckets, they very very very rarely becomes something significant in fantasy football. Like, there's not actually some massive difference between those two categories. It's very, very very minor. The ZAP model tries to predict the player's B two s, which is his best two seasons in PPR points per game across his first three years in the league. So If a player scores ten, fifteen, and fifteen PPR points per game in his first three years, his B two s would be fifteen. It would be the average of his top two seasons. The model includes all wide receivers who are either drafted or at the NFL combine since twenty eleven, and just zero point six percent of the wide receiver dart throws ended up scoring twelve or more PPR points per game and B two s meaning less than one percent of them have averaged twelve PPR points per game in their best two seasons across their first three in the league. Now, that obviously is sustained success or decent success. And remember two that points per game equals points divided by all games played, so Tess Johnson's would include games where he wasn't getting that much run. There's no perfect way of doing this, but regardless, that alone tells us that his odds of hitting big are not super high, and realistically, the model's going to care a lot more about that sustained wide receiver one, wide receiver two, maybe even wide receiver three production versus someone who could be a fill in when things break a certain way. But just to reiterate, I wouldn't even go crazy looking into that individual score because even the waiver Wire ad group, the tier right above the dart throw one, just one point five percent of them have had B two is of twelve or more PPR points per game across their first three in the league. If tes Johnson becomes a legitimate fantasy starter long term, he'd be a pretty big outlier. The thing is, though, even if I know that to be true, even if I know that the probability is not on tes Johnson's side, the cost to acquire is not significant. This is the kind of stuff that always gets missed in outlier analysis. People think that if you're evaluating via analytics or via numbers, that you can't spot outliers. That's not it at all. No one can spot outliers. That's the point of them being an outlier. What we should do is look at range of outcomes, recognize that there's a higher ceiling with a player, and then look at the cost of that player. Look at the cost to acquire that guy in fantasy football. Like this is how I felt about Kyle Mnungai this offseason. Manungai, with some of the model didn't really care for, but It's not like I had to pay a second or even third round rookie pick to get Manungai. I still drafted him even though the model said that he was pretty mid. I was way overweight with Kyle Mnungui in Best Ball this year. Because in the end, we have to remember two things with this stuff. Number One, this model is far from flawless. It's a guide. It's been really helpful for me through the years, but it's missed on plenty and it'll miss on plenty more. We have to be open to that when the cost to acquire is not high. Number Two, these are NFL players. When opportunities arise in the league, like we're seeing right now with Tes given all these injuries, a lot of players have the ability to take advantage of that opportunity in some way. Like let's go back to Kylemanungui. When we went into that twenty twenty five NFL draft, we knew that whoever the Bears would take had a shot to be fantasy relevant. Right we were hoping for a Day two pick. But there's a reason that Day three backs from ambiguous backfields are the Day three rookie running backs who hit most frequently Because there's opportunity even if that player is not spectacular long term, and I think Tes can be that kind of player. Now, the drawbacks to his ZAP model profile or that he was tiny and wide receiver weight is an input in the model, and then he actually didn't have the best production profile in the world. It wasn't horrible, but it wasn't great. His breakout score was just below fifty, so that was below average. He was purely a slot player in college. He ran eighty seven percent of his routes from that area of the field. He maxed out and adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt at two point thirty nine. That's adjusted for strength of opponent. The average in this class was just a little bit below that, but Tes Johnson also had five collegiate seasons to get there, and then obviously he was a seventh round pick. He didn't get the draft capitol. But now that we've seen him in the NFL, I think some of his athleticism, some of that twitchiness, it's translating. And my guess that his slow forty time was also the result of him wanting to be balk year at the combine to not weigh one hundred and forty pounds. And I've said this before about the Buccaneers. I said it with a mechag Buka when they drafted him. They don't really care about wide receiver alignment. On almost any other team, Tesz Johnson would be purely a slot guy. I mean, the fact that Josh Downs and Jaden Reid are largely just slock eyes tells you that teams operate that way. But this season, Johnson has a forty seven percent slot rate. That's not low, but it's definitely not high. In Week seven alone, tes ran a lower percentage of routes from the slot than Sterling Shepard. And I don't think this is just because they have a slot player in Sterling Shepard also now getting more run in this offense because last year Sterling Shepard had a forty seven percent rate. They just rotate their wide receivers and they want gamers. That's what they probably see in tes Johnson. He's a gamer, but I don't know if he's going to be a super high volume receiver at the next level. Like keep in mind, he still hasn't hit a twenty percent target chair in a game yet. Despite those nine targets on Monday night. So my stance is that I don't think we're looking at like some super legit long term solution. He's more than likely a bench asset long term short term given what I've seen. He can be a reasonable wide receiver three, wide receiver four during these bye weeks, and he has the ability to generate some big plays so we can have some spiked weeks. And then as players get healthier, like if Jalen McMillan's feeling better or if Chris Godwin's back, then Johnson becomes less relevant in fantasy football unless he really really breaks out over the next few weeks, and that's a big if we haven't really heard anything about Jayleen McMillan or Chris Godwin. I do think tes Johnson's a really fun player, though I want him on my fantasy rosters right now. But those are all the reasons I don't see him as like a super legit long term solution in fantasy and why his zapp score was as low as it was. This last question is from Twitter. It's from at Dynasty ff Brad. It says, how are you feeling about Devonte Smith? Sell? Buy or hold? I've got him on a team with tet arsb Egbuca, and Rome. He used to be my wide receiver too, and now I'm feeling it might be a good sell high, but can't decide with AJ Brown trade rumors, I can't see them bringing in another wide receiver over him. Okay, So, first off, I would be absolutely shocked if the Eagles traded away AJ Brown for many reasons. We should be making the assumption that AJ Brown is going to be in Philly because I think there's like a ninety nine percent chance of that being the case. Second, I think perception versus reality is just off for the Eagles wide receivers. The Eagles were definitely a run heavy team to start the year. After Week two, they had a pass rate and this is on dropbacks of fifty one percent that was the lowest in the league. Their pass rate over expected according to Fantasy Life data was minus eight percent, that was fourth lowest. Since then, though, Philadelphia's ten in the NFL and overall pass rate on dropbacks, they're running fewer plays than other teams overall, but they're still twenty first in just raw dropbacks per game, and during this time period, their dropbacks over expected rate has been plus three percent. That's actually seventh highest in football. Now pass right over expected numbers They're gonna be different depending on the source, but Fantasy Points data they had the Eagles with rates of one point five percent, minus nine percent, and minus nine percent over their first three games, but since then they've been at minus three percent, plus twenty two percent, plus four percent, and minus two percent across the season. They're middle of the pack and pass right over expected according to their numbers over at Fantasy Points and since Week two, DeVante Smith has scored twenty five, nineteen point four nine, and thirty three PPR points. He's averaging seventeen point three PPR points per game during that time, with one pretty bad game, won, relatively bad game, and three rate games. Aj Brown's basically the same twenty two point nine, two point seven, nine point three, fourteen, and then twenty eight PPR points. Now, according to my numbers, the Eagles median opponents so far this season shows they've had a top five schedule for wide receivers. That sounds not great because we would want better production. However, they had the second best schedule rest of season according to those numbers, which was one of the reasons that I called out AJ Brown as a bye last week. Thankfully I didn't wait until that tough matchup against Minnesota because obviously he had a good day. Now, look, I still think it's fine if you want to sell Devonte Smith, if you can really sell high. I just think the market sentiment is still a little bit anchored to what Philly did to start the season, when they realistically have been pretty ordinary and pass rate of late. Also with the Eagles, this is kind of what you're gonna get. You get peaks and valleys given their personnel. It's part of the experience. If you're someone who wants more consistency, that's fine, that's how you want to manage your team. But most wide receivers are going to be relatively inconsistent, at least most wide receivers with the kind of weekly ceiling that we get from Devonte Smith and AJ Brown, Well, look, I think you can try and trade anyone. But I also think people hate the Eagles offense. There are some reasons to be down on them, like the number of plays they're running, the lack of play action, all that kind of stuff. And I talked about that a little bit with Saquon Barkley on the ten Trends episode. But Smith and Brown are really good players who should be fine rest of season, especially given that schedule. This be'st question from Patreon is from Joseph. It says, in the event that Breis Hall does get traded, how do you view Isaiah Davis. So I've gotten a lot of questions from people about the trade deadline and how I handle it, and I think my general high level thoughts they're simply trades don't happen nearly as much as we think they do. We all get super hyped about all these players moving teams in fantasy football because it's really exciting and like one of the fifteen twenty twenty five rumors out there will actually happen. Like, I definitely think it's possible that Breece Hall gets moved. I think it's possible that Jacobe Myers gets moved. And I'll plan ahead where I can. I'll stash Jack Besh, I'll stash Isaiah Davis. But I do want to be rational and level headed, like in my own mind, for my own sanity, for my own teams. I want to be level headed that these things usually don't happen. I hope they do, because it makes fantasy football that much more chaotic and fun, and it rewards managers who know ball and can react. But with Isaiah Davis, look I like him as a player. You guys know that. I think he's capable of being a higher volume back. With that being said, Breece Hall is one of the better backs in the league, and he's been seeing a huge backfield share on the ground with a decent enough target shair, and he still can't get past RB two status. I can't imagine a world where Isaiah da would be able to match that. Similar to when injuries occur, you can make the argument that a backfield without Hall would mean Davis would see an even bigger workload than what Hall's seeing right now, because Hall has Davis to deal with. But in this scenario where the Jets trade Breeze Hall, Isaiah Davis likely wouldn't become some serious bellcal back. They'd probably use Khalil Herbert, who's next on the depth chart. Could Davis hit like RB three status given his pass catching and the Jets are usually trailing, and then he'd get a beef your early down workload. I think that's where his ceiling would lie. So if you have Davis, you'd get a nice bump in value. And that's what we're looking for in fantasy football. We want our assets today to be more valuable tomorrow, and that would happen for Isaiah Davis. I just don't want to get carried away given the situation and what would likely happen with that backfield split. The last question this week is from Ryan Max on Blue Sky. It says, any thoughts on what to expect from various Kansas City pass catchers rest of season? Having a hard time valuing Worthy, Rice and Kelsey. You know, I had a conversation with Late Round Fantasy Fotball subscribers about this this past week. I do a live stream every Tuesday night where we talk waivers, we talk trades, any question that comes my way, we talk about it, and Xavier Worthy was a topic of conversation and I got to say, I think he's been overvalued by the market. Like I did my rest of season rankings this week, I'm seven wide receiver spots lower than consensus. With Xavier Worthy, a big game is always going to be possible for him, So definitely, don't take this the wrong way. I'm just talking about sustained success, like sustained wide receiver two plus success. I don't think we're going to see that this year. He's hit a sub fifteen percent target shair in back to back games. He's maxed out at a twenty three percent target share in a single game this season, and even then, his production came against the Ravens and that secondary that we know now has been pretty brutal. Now, maybe that injury is part of the reason for them, So I think there may be a wider range of outcomes compared to other players in this same situation. But with Rashi Rice back, with Travis Kelcey still involved in the offense, I mean, Worthy still hasn't hit higher than an eighty percent route share in a single game this season. It's an amazing offense. Patrick Mahomes is playing great. They're gonna keep cruising. So there's at least that I just worry about them spreading the ball around the offense a little bit more than we'd like outside of Rashee Rice. With Rice, to me, he's a wide receiver one pretty comfortably. The Chiefs love getting creative at the goal line, and Rice is one of the players that they're gonna get creative with as we saw last week. I can't get over the fact that he came back, he had nineteen routes run and he had ten targets. They're gonna do what they can do to force the ball his way because he can make a lot happen after the catch. And I've let my thoughts on Travis kelcey be known. He was horrible last year in a small sample with Rashee Rice. I'm worried about that continuing. And I don't think it's a coincidence that Kelsey had his lowest target share of the season last week when Rashi Rice was back and he had a very similar rout participation. It wasn't just because they were ahead and they didn't let Travis kelce run a lot of routes. So to me, Rice is an elite asset worthy. I'm a little bit nervous about versus how the market views him and Kelsey. He's someone that I thought has been to sell for most of the season. Basically for all of the season, every other non running back in this offense is just a cross your fingers type of player in a given week. But I am excited about Burchard Smith. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Late Round Perspectives is dropping later today and also the Late Round Fantasy Football Show will be live at one pm Eastern on the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. If you miss that show though, it will drop in this podcast feed tomorrow morning. Thanks everyone greatly appreciate all of you. Have a great weekend and best of luck in Week eight.