536: Risers and Fallers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharesen, the editor in chief at fandled at Number five dot com. And this is episode five hundred and thirty six of the Late Round podcast, so the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. My Bold Predictions article. It dropped on Friday last week. A lot of you guys were asking about it, but I won't be doing that episode until next week. I'll take ten of the fifteen Bold Predictions that I talked about in that article, and I'll add a couple specifically for you podcast listeners. I'll run through all of that next week, but if you want to see the Bold Predictions article before that, head to my Twitter account or just go to number fire dot com and you should be able to find it. Instead of doing that episode right now today, I'm doing what I do towards the end of August every single year. I'm talking risers and followers. I'm talking about players I may piped or maybe talked down throughout the offseason, or even players that I didn't and I'll be explaining why they've moved up or down my rankings over the last month or so. In some cases, they stayed in a similar spot in my rankings, but they rose or they fell in ADP and that changed the way that I view them. Now, before I get into the risers and followers, I'm going to remind you about the MLB's Single Entry Series, presented by Roto Grinders. Each week, enter a featured Single Entry Series contest to win cash and compete for a seat in the forty thousand dollars online final. Just play daily and Fandel will add your four highest point totals together to get your combined score and rank for the week. So head over to Fandel and enter the MLB Single Entry Series today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Head over to fandle dot com or download the Fandle LAP for more details. Naji Harris is my first riser. One of my bold predictions and this is a spoiler alert. I'm sorry, but one of my bold predictions this year is that Naji Harris will finish as a top eight running back in Fantasy football. Much has been made about the Steelers offensive line, and look, I agree, it's not good. It's bad on paper, but I feel like when we make that offensive line excuse, we're ignoring the far more important piece to fantasy football. It's volume, and Naji Harris should have that. He's been dominating first team snaps in the preseason. Everyone's referring to him as a bellcow back, and we know he has the skill set to be that guy. Not only that, even though draft capital is in everything, the Steelers are in win now mode. With Ben Roethlisberger being thirty nine years old, his career is coming to an end, and the Steelers went out and spent a first rounder to get Naji Harris. They didn't draft him to throw him on the bench. I said this in my Bold Predictions piece, but let's just run through an exercise here. James Connor when he broke out in Pittsburgh, he played thirteen games and he still handled more than seventy percent of Pittsburgh's running back rushes, and he had better than a ten percent target share. Since twenty eleven, we've had thirty nine running backs hit marks. Of those thirty nine, all but two of them finished in the top ten at the position. Clearly, a player seeing that type of workload that means he was probably healthy throughout the year or most of the year. We see that with running back rankings all the time in the way that they finish. But even on a points per game basis, thirty three of the thirty nine hit seventeen PPR points per game that would have been the RB eight last season. I care about the offensive line in Pittsburgh. I'd love for it to be the best in the league, but Harris is going to be fed, and that seems to get lost sometimes. I was never low on Harris, but I've drafted him a lot over the last month, so I'm giving him a shout today. David Montgomery was someone who I was not into to start the offseason, but I've gradually pushed him up my running back rankings, and the main reason for that is Trek Cohen. I'm not sure Cohen is actually going to be a thing given his recovery from last year's injury, and that's gonna help David Montgomery's target shair. Yes, Damian Williams is there now, I know, but Montgomery averaged almost a thirteen percent target share per game last year without Tarik Cohen. It's a small sample size, but in the three games with Cohen, that number was eight point six percent, and he reached a high of eleven percent in a single game. Now, I agree with you that the scheduled to end last year for Chicago that was really nice for David Montgomery. It was easy. That played a role in Montgomery going absolutely nuts in fantasy football. And I'll also agree with you that Montgomery probably won't see quite the workload that he saw last year because there is still better competition this season in that backfield. I'm also not aggressively going after David Montgomery and drafts just because of the wide receivers who get drafted around him. But I have to call him out on today's show as a riser because he is a riser. I feel way better about David Montgomery today than I did three months ago, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that Tarik Cohen is not one hundred percent. The last running back riser for me today is Darryl Henderson. When the cam Akers injury went down last month, I expected Henderson's ADP to rise significantly, like significantly more than it actually did. But he's reasonably priced in my opinion, and I've bought into him a little bit more over the last month. My feelings on Henderson are more game theory driven than anything else. It's not super numbers heavy because I don't think it needs to be. He's being drafted around RB twenty right now, but we obviously know there could be room for growth there. It's not necessarily expected, but cam Akers was a second round pick before he got hurt. Henderson's being selected way after that because of the idea that he's not as much of a bellcow workhorse than Acres is, and I would agree with that. I've mentioned that on the podcast, Henderson has a pretty big history of not being a bellcow. With that being said, there's still a chance that he sees a good amount of work in that Rams backfield, and that Rams offense is going to be probably one of the better offenses in the league, and it's one that's been run be close to the end zone since Sean McVeagh took over. So I would argue, and my projections agree with me. I would argue that Henderson is being drafted closer to his floor than his ceiling, as long as he stays healthy. Now, I don't want to say RB twenty is his absolute floor. I just mean there's room for growth for that ADP when it's harder to get that from other running backs going around him. Now as usual, best ball leagues have been sharper in my opinion about Daryl Henderson, and he's priced a lot higher there than other places. But if you're playing on a platform like ESPN or Yahoo, you'll see someone like Josh Jacobs going ahead of Darryl Henderson. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Jacobs outscores Darryl Henderson this year. But that's not the point. Like I talked about on the Players to Avoid episode, Jacobs is probably not going to see an increase in target share with Kenyan Drake in that backfield. He hasn't been utilized as a receiver in the NFL. So you have a cap ceiling for Josh Jacobs, you have a cap ceiling for a gull JK. Dobbins to a degree too, and guys on ESPN right now, Chase Edmonds is going one spot after Daryl Henderson. Like there are far more concerns about Chase Edmonds than Darryl Henderson. So i'd watch for Henderson in your home leagues. He may end up being of value because I don't think everyone's properly recognizing his upper range of outcomes. I know that was less mathematic than my typical approach, but sometimes you just have to talk it out and try to think a little bit more feel based about situation in upside. Okay, I'm done with running back risers. Let's move to wide receiver. This is just a general trend that I've found myself doing in drafts this month. I'm buying a lot of rookie wide receivers, especially Devonte Smith. I bought the injury discount on Smith, and I think he's probably going to be reasonably priced throughout draft season. There's a lot to like about him. He was a ninety eighth percentile prospect in my model. He's a top option on the Eagles, so the target share ceiling is there, and he fits some of the criteria that I talked about on the Breakout wide Receiver episode last month. He's a top pass catcher being drafted from his team by ADP and in those middle rounds, he doesn't have any wide receiver from the Eagles being drafted with him. That's given us a better hit rate historically than the alternative now of course, there's some worry about Jalen Hurts as a passer, But I'm into Smith, especially because the front half of that Eagles season they have a great schedule. But I'm also into throwing darts at players like Terris Marshall and Rondell Moore. For all of you who listen to my show this offseason, you know that I'm a big, big Tarris Marshall guy. I was higher on him than the majority of fantasy analysts in the industry. He played that justin Jefferson role at LSU last year and played seventy three percent of his snaps from the slot. That's where he can fit in right away with Carolina Curtis Samuel played a lot of slot snaps for the Panthers last year when Robbie Anderson and DJ Moore stayed usually on the perimeter. And for the record, when I reference playing in the slot, I never mean that a player specifically plays in the slot. It's not that binary. A lot of guys move around. I'm just saying that in Marshall's case, he can walk in and play a lot of snaps from that area of the field given his experience there last year, and it'd probably be an easier transition to the NFL so he can find the field quickly, which means he'll have a shot to showcase his talent, and he already has in the preseason. But regardless, I don't think it's a bad idea to throw a dart at Marshall in your redraft league. And Rondell Moore is likely to be a slot guy too for Arizona. He's played almost exclusively there during the preseason and he's getting work. I'd expect AJ Green or Christian Kirk to take the perimeter work, probably aj Green and then DeAndre Hopkins on the opposite side, and then Rondell Moore could thrive in that inside role. That's where he belongs in the NFL. That's where he's always belonged in the NFL. He can do damage there. Just don't ignore the rookie wide receivers this year. It was a great class, and a lot of the upper end guys they're already showing that they can have a decent sized workload in year one. Although there is one that I'm going to talk about later who I may ignore. I'm in on Jacoby Myers. I wrote him up in my bold Predictions article. So I may end up talking about him on next week's show, but I am in what's the one thing statistically that translates year over year? Most volume? Volume is what matters each year in fantasy football, but it's also what stickiest year over year. Myers only played fourteen games last year, and he still had a nineteen percent target chair in New England's offense. On a per game basis, he had almost a twenty five percent target chair. From Week seven onward, his target share per game was almost thirty two percent. He's already doing well in the preseason. He's already getting hype. But let's just ignore that for a second. Who are you afraid of in this offense? Nelson Aguiloor, Kendrick Bourne, those banged up tight ends. Although I do like John new Smith, Jacoby Myers should be going far earlier in drafts, and the more that he's got in love in him having this good preseason, he's an obvious riser for me. I got a mailbag question a hand full of weeks ago talking about Tua Tongue of Ailoa and how I felt about him as a late round quarterback pick. At the time. I said he was fine, but I preferred either going up and getting Ryan Tannehill or just kind of getting Trey Lance or justin Fields slightly after Tua. Now things are different, not just because Tua has looked great in the preseason, but because Lance and Fields have jumped to a pretty significantly an ADP. So Tua isn't in this no man's land area in the draft. He's got some rushing appeal, and like I mentioned on that show, I love who Miami is putting around him. He did throw into tight windows last year, but he was also working with wide receivers and pass catchers who didn't separate. Well, those numbers don't tell the whole story. And he's been open and saying that he's not that kind of quarterback, and we know he's not that kind of quarterback. He's not Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick worked well for a player like Devonte Parker because Parker uses his body to go up and grab passes as opposed to just separating from his defender. We won't get that with Will Fuller and Jalen Waddle. It makes sense to surround Tua with those types of players. But yeah, I'm much more into Tua now because the market is changing. It's changing with the other late round quarterback options. My good friend Richriebar at Lord Reeves on Twitter, he sent a thought provoking tweet about Antonio Gibson last week. The tweet said, starting to get weird feelings that we are setting up Antonio Gibson the exact same way we did early run Joe Mixon, jumping all the way from A to Z based on how we'd use the player. Hopefully the outcome is better this trip. I'm starting to get those same feelings. Gibson is being called out here as a faller because of what's going on in the preseason with his pass catching. I've talked about Gibson at length on this show during the offseason. My general stance has been that he's a megabye. I had him as a bye on my Dynasty by Candidate episode back in the early parts of twenty twenty one. I loved Antonio Gibson last year. I love his long term outlook. I love me san Antonio Gibson. But does the football team Gibson probably is in store for touchdown regression. In order to combat that, he's gonna need to be in a better offense which is likely, but it'll also need to catch a lot more passes. He ended last year with a target share per game rate under ten percent. As we know, JD McKissick got a lot of work through the air out of that backfield so far in the preseason that hasn't really changed. This is courtesy of my friend John Dago from NBC Sports, but Dago tweeted that Ryan Fitzpatrick has played nine third downs this preseason. On those third downs, JD McKissick has been on the field for seven of them. Antonio Gibson has only been on the field for one of them, and it was a third and one. Maybe Ron riveraen company or just messing with us. I mean, I'm kind of hoping that they are, because I've got a lot of Antonio Gibson. I haven't really moved him in my rankings because the ceiling is just amazing. But with someone like Naji Harris looking safer and safer, I can absolutely understand going that direction than going with Antonio Gibson in round two because I do think Harris's receiving projection is safer. Gibson has the upside, don't get me wrong, But if you're someone who'd rather strive for safety, Harris is a safer bet for that work. At this point, it feels like I have to talk about Jamar Chase, doesn't it. Chase has struggled so far, not just by what we're hearing out of Bengals camp, but we've seen him in the preseason and he's had issues with drops. He just kind of seems unsure of himself. I think this is only natural when you take a year off from playing football. I'm not concerned about Chase long term. In redraft, though, I don't think it's necessary to spend on Chase at cost. He's being drafted as a low end wide receiver too. Now, Chase was a ninety nine percentile wide receiver in my model. He was a very very very very good prospect, an elite prospect. That doesn't mean he has to be incredibly fantasy relevant in year one. T Higgins and Tyler Boyder there, and while Cincinnati's going to likely b pass heavy as they've been under Zach Taylor, Chase isn't a lock to see a twenty percent target share. But even if he does get to twenty percent, he's not a lock to finish as a low end wide receiver two my projections have met a twenty percent share, and he's the wide receiver thirty one in my projections. I probably should have called him out as a player to avoid last week, or generally avoid. This really isn't an overreaction to his drops either. Like I said, I think it's natural for him to be a little bit rusty after not playing for so long. But I don't think we should be making too many strong assumptions. Given there are alternatives in that offense, and where Jamar Chase is being drafted, there are alternatives in your fantasy draft. I don't know how we can confidently be drafting Kenny Galladay right now. I didn't mind the landing spot in New York when he first signed there, because there were definitely worse spots for Kenny Galladay to go. But he hasn't practiced in over two weeks. He's playing on a team with the least desirable offensive coordinators in the league, to go along with a projected poor offensive line and a quarterback who's been below average and quarterback rating under pressure over the last two years. His being absent from practice isn't allowing him to get those reps in with Daniel Jones, it was hard to be overly bullish on Baby Tron entering the year. He fits some things that I look for structurally, like him being the first pass catcher being drafted from his team. But there are a lot of things pointing to this being an uphill battle for Kenny Galladay in year one with the Giants. I hope I'm wrong, but he's someone who's fallen in my rankings since that injury in early August. The last player I want to talk about today is another wide receiver who's been missing time this offseason, and that's Curtis Samuel. He had a groin injury at first, then he was put on the COVID nineteen list, so he hasn't gotten many reps. Ron Rivera doesn't seem that concerned, he said, according to Adam Schefter quote, there's no timetable for Curtis. He's been in the system, he knows it. Yeah, you'd love for him to catch a few reps, maybe in the last preseason game, but we're not going to rush him out there. Here's the thing, I think Diami Brown is a very good wide receiver. He checked a lot of boxes in my prospect model, and he's had a good preseason. I'm curious as to what Rivera is speaking to when he says that Samuel's been in the system and he knows it like I know. He's referring to his time with Samuel in the past and with Scott Turner influencing the offense. Turner's now the offensive coordinator in Washington with Rivera, and he was the quarterbacks coach in Carolina with Curtis, Samuel and Ron Rivera, the gang's back together. This is the thing. When Samuel played for Rivera and he had Turner with him, his average depth of target was significantly higher than what it was last year without Rivera. We all thought Samuel would be this like Swiss army knife type of player at the NFL level, and he was used that way more in the slot last year with Matt Ruhle in Carolina, but with Rivera he was the opposite. His average depth of target actually got cut in half from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty, and during that time, during that transition, we saw his slot snap rate go from twenty nine percent with Ron Rivera to seventy one percent last year. That's according to Pro Football Focus, Washington has a slot receiver in Adam Humphries and Dami Brown is a perimeter receiver. So given Rivera's statement and just how they utilized Curtis Samuel before, I would expect her to Samuel to be a perimeter receiver for Washington. That means Dami Brown wouldn't get that much playing time to start the season. And I think the most likely outcome here is that Diami ends up not having this massive, massive rookie year production wise, But considering Samuel hasn't been getting reps, considering him a believer in Diami Brown, it's not hard to envision a scenario where Samuel's workload isn't as big as we might have thought a month or two ago. I mean, look, you don't really have to hardcore fade Curtis Samuel. It doesn't really matter at his cost. That's not the point to this. I'm bringing him up because some of the things have worked against him over the last month. A lot of things have, and that's what today's show is really all about. But that's going to do it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast. Make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and efforts following me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Before I let you guys go, A lot of you may already be aware, but well known fantasy analyst Mike Taglier of Fantasy Pros has been in the hospital over the last couple of weeks fighting COVID nineteen. Mike's a great human being. He's always bringing positivity to the shows that he's on. He's got a lot of football knowledge that he drops, and he's always been there for me personally. So I wanted to get everyone listening to this show to send prayers, positive vibes, positive thoughts, whatever works best for you to send that to Mike, his wife, Tabby, and the rest of his family. We all can't wait to get you back on Twitter and back on your podcast talking football tags. Keep fighting. Thanks everyone,