The Tax Survey Results Are In!

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- Welcome to the advocacy scoop,
the podcast that takes you

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inside the advocacy work
of the National Association

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of Realtors connecting NAR members

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with their advocates in
Washington for a front row seat

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to the fight for public policy
that strengthens the ability

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of Americans to access property ownership.

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- Right. Hello everyone and welcome back

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to the advocacy Scoop podcast.

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I'm Patrick Newton here
with Shannon McGahn,

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NAR's Chief Advocacy Officer

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and it's our podcast anniversary.

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- Happy anniversary, Patrick.

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- Yeah, we know we launched
this thing a year ago back in

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May of last year, and
here we are a year later

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and we've, we've wrapped
up, we actually launched

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with three episodes in May.

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We did sort of a, a package
deal there to start things off

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of some primers on all different
aspects of NAR's advocacy.

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We covered RPAC, we
covered our legal advocacy,

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covered commercial, our
realtor party grants,

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all the different components and,

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and I think we should
like, I think it should be

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mandatory training.

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- What have you done for me lately? Right.

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That was a, a great episode.

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I'm still sending folks back there

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and what is unpacking our pac?

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We were able to walk through
all of the components

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of our political programs

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and fair housing as our latest episode.

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So if you have not tuned into that,

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our April Fair Housing
month episode, please do.

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- My favorite was live from
advocacy week when I got to sort

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of embarrass you a little bit

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with all the stats on
your time in Congress.

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Do you remember how many Congresses advice

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- I I have selectively deleted
that from my mind, Patrick.

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I appreciate that.

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- Sorry, I won't age Shamus anymore.

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We're the same age, so
it's a double slide.

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But you know, this episode

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as we mark the one year
anniversary of the podcast,

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we've done a a this nice suite of primers

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during the past year,
but this year we want

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to focus on current events and things

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and news in DC as they're unfolding.

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And there are a lot of things
unfolding in DC right now.

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In fact, this whole episode's
just gonna be one long scoop

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because we have a lot of
information to share things

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that are happening even today

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as we're recording this episode.

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And the big news is we
commissioned this national poll

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of registered voters on some
of the most important aspects

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of tax reform as they
apply to our membership

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and the real estate economy.

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And I was a little surprised by some

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of the results. What was your take on it?

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- Oh, thi this poll has
been very well received

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because in the advocacy community,

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people are always looking
out for what is it

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that the American people think.

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So in early April we had
a thousand registered

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voters who were polled.

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It was conducted by public
opinion strategies in heart

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research early April.

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So that's a bipartisan group of pollsters.

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And the results were very interesting.

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Americans strongly support
tax reform solutions

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that will address inflation

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and help families who are
struggling in today's economy.

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That doesn't seem like news, but

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whenever you see something that comes

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with such strong support, it's interesting

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to do some more digging

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and find out what are the proposals

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that they really do care about

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and especially those that
impact the real estate economy

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and will provide more
opportunities for home ownership.

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- And the way we broke this down and,

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and then I love that the way
we did this is we asked the

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registered voters what
components of the tax cuts

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and jobs act that exist
now do you support?

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And then what new
provisions would you support

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that are not a part of it
that could get included?

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- Oh yes, absolutely.

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Well, and also the baseline is
that more than half of those

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who were polled say that everyday
goods are costing too much

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more than half, that the
economy is not doing well

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and that 80% worry

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that it might not be the
right time to buy a home.

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So when we get into, here
are some of the, the parts

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that are in the current
tax bill that could expire

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that are being reconsidered,

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those numbers were incredibly favorable.

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86% supported lowered
income tax for individuals

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and for married couples, 83%
supported that tax deduction

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for independent contractors

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and for small businesses that
make under 400,000 a year

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and 80% supported tax
incentives for investors

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to encourage economic growth

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and development in
underserved communities.

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Those are very strong numbers
when you're seeing more than

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eight, outta 10 folks who
support these policies.

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And the interesting thing is
tax reform is being discussed.

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There are those elements
of it that might expire,

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and then there are other ones
that they're considering too.

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But none of this is a given

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and Congress is coming to the
table every day looking at

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how do we extend this

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and then how do we see what can be added?

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And having this kind of
data is incredibly relevant,

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- But the fact that
there's such strong support

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for these provisions
and these are provisions

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that exist currently

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that will expire once the
tax bill expires at the end

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of the year if it's not renewed.

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So these are current provisions,

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but we also asked about
possible new provisions

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to tax reform and we wanted to
gauge public support on some

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of these that are critical
to the real estate economy.

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And really some of these
numbers were just beyond belief.

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- Oh, exactly. So the stuff we,

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we just talked about are things that are,

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what taxes would go up
if these did not extend

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after this bill expires
at the end of the year.

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These are new provisions
that we have long supported

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that are very bipartisan

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and to see what the American
voter thinks of these,

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it's been incredibly satisfying and 92%.

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So they support allowing
home buyers to save money

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and tax free accounts to
be used for a down payment

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to purchase a home, over
90% support maintaining tax

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incentives like the mortgage interest

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deduction for homeowners.

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In the previous tax cut

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and jobs act, there was a
limit on the mortgage interest

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deduction set to $750,000.

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And there have been talks that

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that could even go down further.

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But we're seeing overwhelming
support for maintaining

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that tax incentive

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and then 76% support providing
tax credits to investors

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to help convert those
underutilized commercial properties

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that we see in cities around
the country into housing units

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that are in such high demand

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- Commercial conversion.

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And we've been banging
that drum for years. For

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- Years exactly since the pandemic.

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And we've seen success in Washington DC

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where Mayor Bowser has
been supportive of that.

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And more and more cities are getting those

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policies over the finish line.

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We also saw close to 70% support
doubling the amount sellers

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can make in profit from
the sale of their home

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before they have to pay taxes. So that's,

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- That's capital. Capital

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- Gains,
- Gains, jinks,

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- Capital gain, buy me coke.

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- Yeah. And that's, that's another big one

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because you know, that's
one of those provisions

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that you've talked about that's
like there's support for it

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and we're doing more
research on that to come

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because there's a capital gains cliff

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that's not too far off In the future,

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- We will have a study
coming out hopefully in time

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for our legislative meetings
that shows the amount

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of homes on the market

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or that could be on the market right now

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that would be subject to
capital gains tax is a very

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significant percentage

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and it's only going to increase
in the next 10 years or so.

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- And I, we like to like play
around with the messaging on

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that because, what do you call that?

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Do you call that a home equity tax?

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Do you call it a home equity penalty?

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Because this is hitting
the middle class now

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because the, the threshold
hasn't been raced

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since, since it was created

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- 1997.

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Do you remember high school, Patrick?

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That would've been when
they first set this.

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- Oh, you've been in
the mid two thousands.

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Yeah, yeah, I remember
that. No, we, we exactly.

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So we're, we're doing a whole fresh

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campaign on capital gains.

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- Exactly. And this is
something that anything

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with capital gains takes a
great deal of time and effort

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because there is always this need for

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what is called a pay for that.

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If you are going to decrease

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how much is coming into the
IRS in taxes, then you need

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to increase where it's
coming from other places

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and that offset can be very expensive.

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But what we are communicating
to policymakers is

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that there are current homes
that could be available,

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inventory unlocked that aren't

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because of this tax disincentive

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that exists with capital gains.

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And we saw that 67% support
increasing the amount the

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sellers can make from 250,000

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to 500,000 if they're single filers

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and 500,000 to $1 million
if they are married.

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Right now it is 250,000 single filer

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and 500,000 for joint filers.

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- And in this poll we
also asked about something

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that was also similar to
what I had for lunch today,

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which was salt and I cook

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- On that diet.

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- Yeah, I am back on that diet

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and it, when you work one
block away from an Irish pub,

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you tend to have a lot of salt for lunch.

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But we polled on salt

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and this is one

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of those things we're
hearing some good things on.

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We have the SALT Caucus in Congress,

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well in the house at
least, which is a group

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of lawmakers from New York

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and California who are Republicans
who are saying, you know,

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SALT has to be included
in the tax reform bill.

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So we wanted to provide
some data on this to sort

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of arm the SALT caucus
with their argument.

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And the numbers were favorable,

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- Very favorable.

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And so this is an issue
that in the 2017 tax Cut

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and Jobs Act was limited to
a $10,000 deduction for state

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and local taxes, which is
very punitive to taxpayers,

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especially in high tax states
like New York or California.

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But there are also
states around the country

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where this impacts you.

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So we poll on this one 61%
supported increasing those

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deduction limits or
removing them altogether

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and 74% said that double taxation

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and fairness is a convincing
reason to eliminate those caps.

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So we have long supported
eliminating the marriage penalty.

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So if you are a a joint filer,
it's still that $10,000,

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it doesn't increase to $20,000

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and that is one potentially
easier solution.

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But we also have members who want

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to see it eliminated altogether,
which it would expire

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with the tax cut and jobs act at the end

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of the year if it's not extended.

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The SALT Caucus has
been very active on this

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and they can see now that
there is very strong level

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of support coming from voters.

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- Well these are some fantastic numbers.

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I'm so glad that we invested in this poll.

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We've put them up on Flyin
realtor if you wanna sort of go

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through them and check those out.

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But now that we have the
numbers, what do you do

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with this information, Shannon?

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I mean is the Hill receptive to it?

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- Absolutely. I just had
some meetings on the hill

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where we were walking through
this polling information,

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but we also made it available publicly.

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00:09:57,780 --> 00:10:00,600
We partnered with
Politico Politico playbook

256
00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:03,960
and over the last week
they've had ads in each

257
00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:07,860
of their playbook sections
to highlight fly in realtor

258
00:10:07,860 --> 00:10:09,990
and all of the data
that's available there,

259
00:10:09,990 --> 00:10:12,900
but also to show Hill
staff and policy makers

260
00:10:12,900 --> 00:10:15,600
and the advocacy community
that this poll exists.

261
00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:18,600
And these are some really
strong numbers in support

262
00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:19,680
of real estate

263
00:10:19,680 --> 00:10:21,900
and housing provisions in
the Tax Cut and Jobs act.

264
00:10:21,900 --> 00:10:24,480
And this is great material to showcase

265
00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,030
as the debate continues
over the next month or two.

266
00:10:27,030 --> 00:10:29,040
- All right. So we have
some fresh numbers.

267
00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:30,870
We're hitting the hill with these numbers.

268
00:10:30,870 --> 00:10:33,060
We've done an ad campaign,
we've got, you know,

269
00:10:33,060 --> 00:10:36,450
RLM is coming up our May
meetings, our May meetings in June

270
00:10:37,385 --> 00:10:39,450
for some June May
meetings for some reason.

271
00:10:39,450 --> 00:10:42,390
And then, yeah, so let's
talk a little bit now like

272
00:10:42,390 --> 00:10:44,250
where we stand in the tax reform process

273
00:10:44,250 --> 00:10:46,320
because we did a whole episode
earlier this year called

274
00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:48,720
Taxing Conversation where
we went over all the issues,

275
00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:53,040
but things are starting to move
now and the budget is done.

276
00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:56,130
- It is done. Well first
off a taxing conversation.

277
00:10:56,130 --> 00:10:58,260
If you haven't listened to
that episode of the podcast,

278
00:10:58,260 --> 00:11:02,130
I hear more about that episode
than any of the others.

279
00:11:02,130 --> 00:11:04,890
I had one member say that he
had listened to it three times

280
00:11:04,890 --> 00:11:06,990
and I said, you gotta find
some better stuff to listen to.

281
00:11:06,990 --> 00:11:08,430
Let me share you my podcast list.

282
00:11:08,430 --> 00:11:13,050
But it really gets into, there
are so many different types

283
00:11:13,050 --> 00:11:15,750
of tax increases that could happen as part

284
00:11:15,750 --> 00:11:16,980
of this type of package.

285
00:11:16,980 --> 00:11:21,270
What Evan Ard, our tax policy
experts here at NAR calls the

286
00:11:21,270 --> 00:11:22,650
ugly 11.

287
00:11:22,650 --> 00:11:25,380
These are things like
10 31 like kind exchange

288
00:11:25,380 --> 00:11:26,700
that's often being mentioned

289
00:11:26,700 --> 00:11:31,020
as a potential budget offset
increasing the estate tax 1 99

290
00:11:31,020 --> 00:11:32,790
a limiting that or limiting

291
00:11:32,790 --> 00:11:34,440
or getting rid of carried interest.

292
00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:39,090
So I said, Evan, can you
tally up if those ugly 11 tax

293
00:11:39,090 --> 00:11:41,850
increases that we have been
opposing all these years,

294
00:11:41,850 --> 00:11:45,000
if they were to make it into
law, how much would that cost?

295
00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,130
Meaning how much are
we saving in taxes from

296
00:11:47,130 --> 00:11:48,600
those not being enacted?

297
00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:53,600
And that 10 year number
is over $2.3 trillion

298
00:11:53,710 --> 00:11:55,870
with a T, not billion trillion dollars.

299
00:11:55,870 --> 00:11:57,400
So if you did see those types

300
00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,490
of tax increases go into
effect, that would pull a lot

301
00:12:00,490 --> 00:12:02,320
of money out of the
real estate economy out

302
00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,260
of middle income families
who are trying to buy a home.

303
00:12:05,260 --> 00:12:07,870
Housing costs would go up,
many services would go up.

304
00:12:07,870 --> 00:12:10,420
So that's why it's important
that those not go through,

305
00:12:10,420 --> 00:12:12,490
- I can't even process
that number like trillion

306
00:12:12,490 --> 00:12:13,490
- No one can.

307
00:12:13,490 --> 00:12:14,710
And so that's why I'm like,
okay, maybe we need to,

308
00:12:14,710 --> 00:12:16,450
you know, boil that down by individual

309
00:12:16,450 --> 00:12:19,180
or something about $2.34
trillion over 10 years

310
00:12:19,180 --> 00:12:21,400
of potential tax increases
that we have opposed.

311
00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:23,020
So the reconciliation process

312
00:12:23,020 --> 00:12:24,370
and why this is so important is

313
00:12:24,370 --> 00:12:27,550
because the budget reconciliation
allows for the Senate

314
00:12:27,550 --> 00:12:30,100
to be able to approve
something with a mere majority

315
00:12:30,100 --> 00:12:33,610
of votes instead of having to
reach that 60 vote threshold.

316
00:12:33,610 --> 00:12:35,920
So it's somewhat politically easier

317
00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:37,360
to get something over the finish line,

318
00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:39,640
but that doesn't mean that it's
going to happen any faster.

319
00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:41,650
So we're still working
through that process.

320
00:12:41,650 --> 00:12:44,050
We just had a two week long break.

321
00:12:44,050 --> 00:12:45,430
How was your spring break Patrick?

322
00:12:45,430 --> 00:12:47,140
Did you get one now you're here working?

323
00:12:47,140 --> 00:12:49,450
I was on spring, I say spring
break with quotation marks

324
00:12:49,450 --> 00:12:50,920
because when you're with
your kids for a week

325
00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:51,940
and a half, it's, you know,

326
00:12:51,940 --> 00:12:53,440
there's still plenty of
other stuff going on.

327
00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:55,630
But Congress just
returned from that break.

328
00:12:55,630 --> 00:12:57,310
The house approved the budget resolution

329
00:12:57,310 --> 00:12:59,500
that had previously been
approved by the Senate.

330
00:12:59,500 --> 00:13:02,560
And so that is where the
vehicle, as they say,

331
00:13:02,560 --> 00:13:04,990
that's the budget
reconciliation process is

332
00:13:04,990 --> 00:13:06,070
using to move forward.

333
00:13:06,070 --> 00:13:10,120
And so now both chambers,
the tax writing committees

334
00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:11,320
of all the committees who are,

335
00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:14,080
who are providing savings
here are getting to work.

336
00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,630
And we are right there
with them on Capitol Hill

337
00:13:16,630 --> 00:13:18,130
for meetings and talking about these

338
00:13:18,130 --> 00:13:19,690
important tax provisions.

339
00:13:19,690 --> 00:13:21,160
- So what's next in this process?

340
00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:24,100
Because they've passed
the budget, which was, was

341
00:13:24,100 --> 00:13:25,125
that the easy part or the hard part?

342
00:13:26,145 --> 00:13:28,750
- It depends on who you ask.
It can always get worse.

343
00:13:28,750 --> 00:13:31,150
So, so it was, it was
a very difficult part

344
00:13:31,150 --> 00:13:32,770
because you have
incredibly different rules

345
00:13:32,770 --> 00:13:34,690
between the house and the
Senate and said it before,

346
00:13:34,690 --> 00:13:36,880
and I'll say it again, the
common line on the hill is

347
00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,550
that the other party is the opposition.

348
00:13:39,550 --> 00:13:40,900
The Senate is the enemy

349
00:13:40,900 --> 00:13:43,420
because it's very difficult
to get these types

350
00:13:43,420 --> 00:13:45,940
of procedural hurdles overcome.

351
00:13:45,940 --> 00:13:47,590
I mean Google what a bird bath is.

352
00:13:47,590 --> 00:13:48,790
I've worked on the hill for 20 years,

353
00:13:48,790 --> 00:13:50,590
I still can't figure
out what a bird bath is,

354
00:13:50,590 --> 00:13:53,470
but it's a way for
amendment trees, you know,

355
00:13:53,470 --> 00:13:55,000
these are all types of things that only

356
00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:56,285
- Exist Bird with a y, right?

357
00:13:56,285 --> 00:13:58,365
- BYRD. Good point. Patrick.

358
00:13:59,560 --> 00:14:01,090
Coming from somebody who has the,

359
00:14:01,090 --> 00:14:02,890
the bird camera in the backyard,

360
00:14:02,890 --> 00:14:04,090
- I do have a bird camera in my yard.

361
00:14:04,090 --> 00:14:06,125
It's the most entertaining
thing I've ever had.

362
00:14:07,330 --> 00:14:09,040
- I bought it from my parents.
It's worth it. It's worth it.

363
00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,320
But yes, bird with a Y. Thank you.

364
00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:14,140
So there are just so many
other procedural hurdles

365
00:14:14,140 --> 00:14:15,580
that the Senate has to overcome.

366
00:14:15,580 --> 00:14:16,960
And as a long time house staffer,

367
00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,390
it just drives us absolutely bonkers.

368
00:14:19,390 --> 00:14:22,300
- So now they start marking
up this thing, which tell us

369
00:14:22,300 --> 00:14:23,350
what a markup is.

370
00:14:23,350 --> 00:14:24,610
That's like DC lingo.

371
00:14:24,610 --> 00:14:26,110
- It is DC lingo. Oh.

372
00:14:26,110 --> 00:14:29,020
So a markup is when the
committee comes together

373
00:14:29,020 --> 00:14:32,020
and actually produces legislation.

374
00:14:32,020 --> 00:14:34,630
So the idea of markup is
that back before computers

375
00:14:34,630 --> 00:14:35,830
and things that you would write,

376
00:14:35,830 --> 00:14:38,830
you would cross out a
sentence, cross out a number,

377
00:14:38,830 --> 00:14:40,630
write in red ink, what
the next one would be.

378
00:14:40,630 --> 00:14:41,830
And then once that's marked up,

379
00:14:41,830 --> 00:14:43,150
then you produce a legislation

380
00:14:43,150 --> 00:14:45,545
and it's ready to go
to the house floor. So,

381
00:14:45,545 --> 00:14:48,370
- So up until now it's just,
it's all been talking points.

382
00:14:48,370 --> 00:14:51,710
But a markup is like pen
to paper. You actually

383
00:14:51,710 --> 00:14:52,790
- Legislative text.

384
00:14:52,790 --> 00:14:54,530
- Yeah, that's
- Going to move along.

385
00:14:54,530 --> 00:14:57,260
I'm just a bill, you
know, go into the hopper.

386
00:14:57,260 --> 00:15:00,170
All the things, right? So the, the markups

387
00:15:00,170 --> 00:15:01,580
where rubber hits the road

388
00:15:01,580 --> 00:15:04,220
and the actual legislating is happening.

389
00:15:04,220 --> 00:15:07,310
So we have been having
these, these meetings,

390
00:15:07,310 --> 00:15:10,010
these policy discussions for years

391
00:15:10,010 --> 00:15:11,150
before these markups happen.

392
00:15:11,150 --> 00:15:13,190
This isn't something, oh
hey, they just noticed it.

393
00:15:13,190 --> 00:15:15,500
And then three days we have
to be prepared to find out,

394
00:15:15,500 --> 00:15:17,510
you know, is 10 31 going to be in there

395
00:15:17,510 --> 00:15:19,160
that we have been prepared for these?

396
00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:20,750
Not saying that we wouldn't get surprises.

397
00:15:20,750 --> 00:15:23,630
They can always come up in
a markup. What is germane?

398
00:15:23,630 --> 00:15:26,900
Meaning what is allowable to
be offered as an an amendment.

399
00:15:26,900 --> 00:15:28,880
That can be another
kind of sticking point.

400
00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:30,860
But we have to be prepared for everything

401
00:15:30,860 --> 00:15:33,410
and we'll have staff in
the room when monitoring

402
00:15:33,410 --> 00:15:34,730
what comes out in the text.

403
00:15:34,730 --> 00:15:37,130
This is when the, the
government advocacy team gets

404
00:15:37,130 --> 00:15:38,750
to work around the clock.

405
00:15:38,750 --> 00:15:40,910
- What, and I thought I heard
Ryan say this morning on our

406
00:15:40,910 --> 00:15:42,710
policy call, it's

407
00:15:42,710 --> 00:15:44,900
what 11 committees are
participating in the

408
00:15:44,900 --> 00:15:46,700
markup. Is that right? Like

409
00:15:46,700 --> 00:15:47,750
- That sounds about right.

410
00:15:47,750 --> 00:15:49,460
- Yeah. It's it's not just one committee.

411
00:15:49,460 --> 00:15:51,800
It's like there's instructions
for every committee.

412
00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:53,240
- Education and workforce. Yeah.

413
00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:54,950
House admin, maybe they're
cutting some parking

414
00:15:54,950 --> 00:15:56,120
spaces, you never know.

415
00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:58,460
Yeah, there are, but every
committee can have some sort

416
00:15:58,460 --> 00:15:59,960
of a cost savings.

417
00:15:59,960 --> 00:16:02,330
And so this really is a
budget process that happens

418
00:16:02,330 --> 00:16:03,860
to produce a tax bill, not the other way

419
00:16:03,860 --> 00:16:04,860
- Around.

420
00:16:04,860 --> 00:16:06,650
Well as we, as we go
through this markup process,

421
00:16:06,650 --> 00:16:10,851
by the time we get to RLM
in May, June, we will,

422
00:16:10,851 --> 00:16:13,220
we will probably, you know, they're,

423
00:16:13,220 --> 00:16:16,700
they're saying the 4th of
July is when the house wants

424
00:16:16,700 --> 00:16:19,490
to pass their, their
version of tax reform.

425
00:16:19,490 --> 00:16:21,980
- Yep. And we heard that
from Treasury Secretary

426
00:16:21,980 --> 00:16:23,180
Scott Bessant as well.

427
00:16:23,180 --> 00:16:25,190
And so deadlines are made to be broken.

428
00:16:25,190 --> 00:16:26,570
That is why they exist.

429
00:16:26,570 --> 00:16:28,160
But they give you some good timeframes.

430
00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:29,690
So back when tax cut

431
00:16:29,690 --> 00:16:32,840
and Jobs act was being formulated in 2017,

432
00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,270
it really got over the
finish line in December.

433
00:16:35,270 --> 00:16:38,720
And that was, remember being
there the at the White House

434
00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:40,700
for the exciting and all that fun stuff.

435
00:16:40,700 --> 00:16:43,610
So typically, as long as it's
ended within the first year

436
00:16:43,610 --> 00:16:45,710
of an administration and a new Congress,

437
00:16:45,710 --> 00:16:48,020
but getting it over the
finish line in the house

438
00:16:48,020 --> 00:16:51,290
where all tax bills have
to originate in the house,

439
00:16:51,290 --> 00:16:53,570
that's the, the big hurdle end July 4th,

440
00:16:53,570 --> 00:16:55,850
anytime there's a recess that's coming up,

441
00:16:55,850 --> 00:16:58,400
that's a good incentive to
say, do you wanna go back

442
00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:00,050
to your, your district

443
00:17:00,050 --> 00:17:01,310
and celebrate 4th of July

444
00:17:01,310 --> 00:17:02,990
with your family? We'll
get this bill done.

445
00:17:02,990 --> 00:17:05,630
- Yeah. And also, I mean the full faith

446
00:17:05,630 --> 00:17:07,820
and credit of the United States
is a good incentive as well.

447
00:17:07,820 --> 00:17:09,530
So there's also hope, won hope.

448
00:17:09,530 --> 00:17:12,710
And so also in, in this bill
is raising the death ceiling.

449
00:17:12,710 --> 00:17:15,710
- Yes. And that has been
something that is becoming kind

450
00:17:15,710 --> 00:17:18,020
of a political football
that's tossed around

451
00:17:18,020 --> 00:17:20,570
because for a long time it
was congressional Republicans

452
00:17:20,570 --> 00:17:22,190
who said, absolutely not,

453
00:17:22,190 --> 00:17:23,660
we're not increasing the debt ceiling

454
00:17:23,660 --> 00:17:25,100
unless we know that these types

455
00:17:25,100 --> 00:17:26,480
of savings are are happening.

456
00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:29,090
And now you have a, an
administration saying,

457
00:17:29,090 --> 00:17:30,260
why do we have this debt ceiling?

458
00:17:30,260 --> 00:17:31,520
We don't want this Patrick,

459
00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:32,930
- Do not toss the political football

460
00:17:32,930 --> 00:17:34,160
to me because I will drop it.

461
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,280
- You I would trust you with it.

462
00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:38,510
You're, you're, you're, you're

463
00:17:38,510 --> 00:17:39,710
your your your your budget expertise.

464
00:17:39,710 --> 00:17:41,630
You understand this better
than anyone but whether

465
00:17:41,630 --> 00:17:43,070
or not that is added onto it

466
00:17:43,070 --> 00:17:45,260
or not, I think, I think
everyone, what we saw

467
00:17:45,260 --> 00:17:46,760
with the the last vote on this is

468
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,350
that nobody wants the United
States to default on any

469
00:17:49,350 --> 00:17:50,970
of our credit lines here

470
00:17:50,970 --> 00:17:52,590
and that that's likely not something

471
00:17:52,590 --> 00:17:54,390
that would be politicized.

472
00:17:54,390 --> 00:17:56,970
- So what's your gut? Well,
so through this process we,

473
00:17:56,970 --> 00:17:57,990
they've passed the budget and

474
00:17:57,990 --> 00:17:59,070
we're going through the markup now.

475
00:17:59,070 --> 00:18:01,350
So what's your gut telling you about

476
00:18:01,350 --> 00:18:02,610
where this bill is headed

477
00:18:02,610 --> 00:18:06,300
and sort of like issues
important to our priorities?

478
00:18:06,300 --> 00:18:11,010
- Well the president campaigned
on three tax breaks in

479
00:18:11,010 --> 00:18:13,080
particular, no tax on tips,

480
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:14,880
which ended up getting bipartisan support

481
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,070
because we saw support from
the Harris campaign as well in

482
00:18:17,070 --> 00:18:19,830
that no tax on social security

483
00:18:19,830 --> 00:18:22,050
and also on fixing the solve problem.

484
00:18:22,050 --> 00:18:24,900
The president publicly
stated that it was an issue

485
00:18:24,900 --> 00:18:26,070
and that he wanted to address it.

486
00:18:26,070 --> 00:18:28,020
So I think the tax writers
and budget committee

487
00:18:28,020 --> 00:18:29,610
and others are looking
for ways to make all

488
00:18:29,610 --> 00:18:31,680
of those accommodated in this package.

489
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,770
But my gut tells me that
the first priority will be

490
00:18:34,770 --> 00:18:37,620
to protect the baseline that
is the tax cut and jobs act.

491
00:18:37,620 --> 00:18:38,940
That if there are things

492
00:18:38,940 --> 00:18:41,430
that start slipping there
other than than salt

493
00:18:41,430 --> 00:18:43,740
where there's now or
bipartisan support to change

494
00:18:43,740 --> 00:18:45,600
that if things start slipping there

495
00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:47,340
and you see the individual rates go up

496
00:18:47,340 --> 00:18:49,290
or anything else, change
that, that's going to be more

497
00:18:49,290 --> 00:18:51,810
of a problem is is how do we protect that

498
00:18:51,810 --> 00:18:53,550
and then add things onto it.

499
00:18:53,550 --> 00:18:54,960
And that's why we are coming in

500
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,960
with both a proactive posture of there are

501
00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,750
so many provisions that
we could add to this

502
00:19:00,750 --> 00:19:02,160
that would increase home ownership

503
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,740
and that would expand
the real estate economy

504
00:19:04,740 --> 00:19:05,940
that would help consumers.

505
00:19:05,940 --> 00:19:09,870
But we also know that that
can't come at the cost of

506
00:19:09,870 --> 00:19:11,550
eliminating mortgage interest deduction

507
00:19:11,550 --> 00:19:12,960
or things like business salt.

508
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,020
One of the potential
pay fors is if you want

509
00:19:16,020 --> 00:19:19,260
to increase the individual
salt from 10,000 to 20,000

510
00:19:19,260 --> 00:19:20,910
or higher, well then businesses will

511
00:19:20,910 --> 00:19:22,050
start paying assault tax.

512
00:19:22,050 --> 00:19:25,740
And that is not something for
small businesses in particular

513
00:19:25,740 --> 00:19:28,680
and for the independent
contractors and small LLCs

514
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,740
and pass throughs who we represent
that anyone wants to say,

515
00:19:31,740 --> 00:19:34,230
okay, well now I can't deduct my state

516
00:19:34,230 --> 00:19:35,610
and local property taxes.

517
00:19:35,610 --> 00:19:38,580
So depending on which pot
of money it's coming from,

518
00:19:38,580 --> 00:19:40,830
that juice is not always
worth the squeeze there.

519
00:19:40,830 --> 00:19:43,230
- You've said this many
times, it's sometimes it's not

520
00:19:43,230 --> 00:19:46,170
what you get into the bill,
it's what you keep out of it.

521
00:19:46,170 --> 00:19:48,870
- I wish we could advertise
more what we keep out of bills.

522
00:19:48,870 --> 00:19:50,790
- I mean
- 'cause that is where the ugly 11,

523
00:19:50,790 --> 00:19:54,600
the $2.3 trillion of
potential tax increases

524
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:56,910
that have been mentioned
over years and years

525
00:19:56,910 --> 00:19:58,560
and years that we have
successfully advocated

526
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,300
against. That's a great example.

527
00:20:00,300 --> 00:20:01,920
- Okay, so we're starting to get to

528
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:03,690
that point in the episode.

529
00:20:03,690 --> 00:20:05,040
It's closing time

530
00:20:06,570 --> 00:20:10,260
and I wanted to mention
that we have RLM coming up,

531
00:20:10,260 --> 00:20:11,400
which is our main meetings

532
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,560
and you know, this is
when 8,000 realtors come

533
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,620
to DC We have this convention center,

534
00:20:16,620 --> 00:20:18,600
we have 35 hotel blocks.

535
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,450
So before you give us the
scoop on some of the speakers

536
00:20:21,450 --> 00:20:22,830
that we're gonna have at RLM,

537
00:20:22,830 --> 00:20:24,930
do you have a favorite RLM hack?

538
00:20:24,930 --> 00:20:26,580
- So all my years working on the hill,

539
00:20:26,580 --> 00:20:28,770
I can still remember when
the realtors were on the hill

540
00:20:28,770 --> 00:20:30,810
because that meant that I am not going

541
00:20:30,810 --> 00:20:33,060
to get a sandwich in the
Rayburn cafeteria that day.

542
00:20:33,060 --> 00:20:34,470
The lines are around the block

543
00:20:34,470 --> 00:20:36,690
or people are having meetings in there.

544
00:20:36,690 --> 00:20:39,720
So my tip is for those going to the hill

545
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:41,790
where our federal political coordinators

546
00:20:41,790 --> 00:20:46,140
or FPCs are tasked during
these may June meetings to go

547
00:20:46,140 --> 00:20:48,310
to the hill and meet with
their members of Congress and

548
00:20:48,310 --> 00:20:49,780
and their delegations.

549
00:20:49,780 --> 00:20:51,490
You don't have to go
through the main entrance

550
00:20:51,490 --> 00:20:53,830
that has the longest
lines, maybe sneak around

551
00:20:53,830 --> 00:20:55,240
to one of the side entrances.

552
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,030
- Oh for sure.
- As long as it doesn't say members only.

553
00:20:58,030 --> 00:21:00,250
Hey, you do need a real ID in order

554
00:21:00,250 --> 00:21:02,110
to get into the White House in any

555
00:21:02,110 --> 00:21:03,790
of the executive branch offices.

556
00:21:03,790 --> 00:21:06,370
You don't need any ID at all
to go four hill meetings.

557
00:21:06,370 --> 00:21:08,920
- The interest is on the back. Are are,

558
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:09,920
- They're so quiet.

559
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:10,780
- So quiet and sleepy.

560
00:21:10,780 --> 00:21:12,670
And then you'll have the one
right on Independence Avenue

561
00:21:12,670 --> 00:21:14,320
and it'll go three blocks long.

562
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:16,420
Well I'm, I'm afraid to tell
you my hat 'cause I don't

563
00:21:16,420 --> 00:21:17,530
or I don't want people to know it.

564
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:20,680
Oh it's, it's like right
across from the convention

565
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,420
center black an alley.

566
00:21:22,420 --> 00:21:25,605
You would never know it's there.
This is my neighborhood so

567
00:21:25,605 --> 00:21:28,540
- It's gonna be so crowded Now
Patrick, you're telling all

568
00:21:28,540 --> 00:21:30,550
of our listeners the coolest spot to go.

569
00:21:30,550 --> 00:21:32,470
- I mean you would. It's literally you.

570
00:21:32,470 --> 00:21:35,590
You have to literally walk
down this alley that you would,

571
00:21:35,590 --> 00:21:38,170
your instincts were
telling you not to go down

572
00:21:38,170 --> 00:21:39,640
and then you turn the corner

573
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:42,310
and there's this cool
little hidden alley filled

574
00:21:42,310 --> 00:21:45,190
with restaurants ranging
from Michelin starred

575
00:21:45,190 --> 00:21:48,670
to just outdoor bars to coffee shops.

576
00:21:48,670 --> 00:21:49,990
And it's just this little alley

577
00:21:49,990 --> 00:21:51,130
and it's literally right there

578
00:21:51,130 --> 00:21:52,450
across from the convention center.

579
00:21:52,450 --> 00:21:55,570
Alright, well so give us
the scoop on like some

580
00:21:55,570 --> 00:21:58,510
of our sessions at RLM
and some of our speakers.

581
00:21:58,510 --> 00:22:01,210
'cause we just nailed
our main general session

582
00:22:01,210 --> 00:22:02,800
down a couple days ago.

583
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:04,420
- Oh the biggest one.
- Yeah, we haven't even announced

584
00:22:04,420 --> 00:22:05,420
- Again.

585
00:22:05,420 --> 00:22:06,760
And Patrick Newton are
doing the advocacy soup.

586
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,360
Yes, we have a great lineup
of advocacy speakers.

587
00:22:10,360 --> 00:22:13,930
I don't want to get too
ahead of our events team,

588
00:22:13,930 --> 00:22:17,560
but one of the big ones we have
for our general sessions are

589
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,930
Juan Williams and Scott Jennings.

590
00:22:19,930 --> 00:22:23,620
So we have a bipartisan
political battle up there talking

591
00:22:23,620 --> 00:22:26,590
about the state of what's
happening in political affairs

592
00:22:26,590 --> 00:22:27,730
and CNN

593
00:22:27,730 --> 00:22:29,560
and Juan Williams who used
to be with Fox I've known

594
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:30,670
for many, many years.

595
00:22:30,670 --> 00:22:32,740
So that'll be a really fun event.

596
00:22:32,740 --> 00:22:34,840
We have lots of different policy and

597
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:36,280
and committee meetings and things.

598
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,710
So looking at things like how
do we bring down insurance

599
00:22:38,710 --> 00:22:40,780
costs, property management issues,

600
00:22:40,780 --> 00:22:43,330
the regulatory issues forum, the land

601
00:22:43,330 --> 00:22:46,090
of opportunity is deregulation
the key to innovation

602
00:22:46,090 --> 00:22:47,380
and expansion and housing.

603
00:22:47,380 --> 00:22:48,610
That will be another great one.

604
00:22:48,610 --> 00:22:50,260
I think we have an administration

605
00:22:50,260 --> 00:22:51,730
speaker coming in for that.

606
00:22:51,730 --> 00:22:53,140
And then our federal legislative

607
00:22:53,140 --> 00:22:54,250
and political forum too,

608
00:22:54,250 --> 00:22:56,230
where we'll have some more
conversations about what's

609
00:22:56,230 --> 00:22:58,030
happening with the tax bill.

610
00:22:58,030 --> 00:23:00,760
So stay tuned. We look
forward to seeing as many

611
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:02,740
of you there as possible in the May

612
00:23:02,740 --> 00:23:04,210
June legislative meeting.

613
00:23:04,210 --> 00:23:07,600
- And we will have unfolding
breaking news probably

614
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:08,920
with tax reform

615
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,920
'cause we'll be in the
middle of markup probably.

616
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,260
- It is a great time for hill visits.

617
00:23:14,260 --> 00:23:15,820
- Yeah,
- We need to have

618
00:23:15,820 --> 00:23:17,800
- Plan this process
- How as people go to the hill

619
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:19,990
to talk about what's
happening in the tax bill.

620
00:23:19,990 --> 00:23:21,460
- So that's the scoop. Thank you

621
00:23:21,460 --> 00:23:23,530
to everyone listening to this podcast.

622
00:23:23,530 --> 00:23:24,730
Please be sure to subscribe

623
00:23:24,730 --> 00:23:27,040
and share wherever you get your podcast.

624
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,110
And meet us right back
here for more advocacy

625
00:23:29,110 --> 00:23:30,110
- Scoop.

626
00:23:30,110 --> 00:23:33,130
- Next up
- Realtors are members

627
00:23:33,130 --> 00:23:35,320
of the National Association of Realtors.