901: Mailbag 8/30/24

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha.

00:00:06
Speaker 2: J J Zachertha, what's up everyone, It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode nine hundred and one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy.

00:00:21
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in the Late Round podcast schedule, it's about to change. Week one starts next week, which means we're officially moving into the in season schedule. Every Tuesday, you can expect the fifteen Transactions episode where I break down players to add, drop by and sell. On Wednesday, it's the ten Trends episode. That's where I talk about some data trends happening across fantasy football. Thursdays, that's the Sleeper Show. I give you players rostered in very few Yahoo leagues who you can plug into your lineups that week. And then on Friday you get two episodes. You get the Mailbag episode and then it's an episode of Late Round Perspectives. That's going to be the schedule through Fantasy football season, and then all the while over on Patreon you'll get things like the weekly data Dump spreadsheet, rest of season rankings, weekly rankings, and livestream Q and as with yours truly it's time.

00:01:14
Speaker 3: I'm excited for this season. I hope you are too.

00:01:17
Speaker 1: Now before we get into the mailbag questions this week, there's not much time left to take advantage of my special Underdog Fantasy offer. You get a free Late Round Draft Guide, a guy that gives you everything you need to crush your drafts this year. You can get it for absolutely free. All you have to do is sign up at Underdog Fantasy dot Com with promo code Late Round and then make a deposit. Underdog will then email you the guide. So you get to play best ball and you get a free copy of the Late Round Draft Guide. You also get a deposit bonus when you deposit. So check it all out Underdog Fantasy dot Com promo code Lateround. We got a lot of great questions this week. Let's get to it. The first question is Patreon. It's from Anthony A. It says, hey, JJ, love the pod in your efficient delivery of fantasy knowledge.

00:02:05
Speaker 3: Thanks. Last year, you made an offhand comment.

00:02:08
Speaker 1: Before the season started that you expected some guy named Puka to be the top waiver ad after Week one, so I added him in every league to great profit. Can you gaze into your crystal ball and name a guy you like for top waiver ad coming out of Week one this season. Honestly, this is something I'd love to hear a take on each week of the season. Okay, So to be honest, if I feel a certain way about a player I'm not gonna like withhold that information. I'll bring it up on the fifteen Transaction show, so you will hear a take like this each week of the season on the show. We're also not gonna have a Puka Nakua type ad after Week one. I can almost guarantee that, So anyone hoping for a slam dunk pick don't think those types of things happen every single year now. Obviously, injury is one of the things that we're always focused on with the waiver wire, and I can't and I won't predict injuries. More than likely, the top waiver AD in Week one is going to be driven by an injury of some sort. Unfortunately. Typically, though, if there's a top waiver AD not from an injury, it's because some player came out of nowhere and had a bigger role than we expected, like Pokinakua last year. And I would imagine that player is probably a rookie or a younger player, because the market would have been less bullish on that kind of player. And to be clear, it's not like I only talked about Pookinakua in the preseason last year. So I'm gonna give you a few guys here, handful of players, some more obvious than others. Dantavian Wicks is one of them. What if we see this packer's wide receiver rotation not go as we think in Week one? What if he gets more run than what we're projecting. Now I've talked about him as a good late round dart throw given his rookie season peripherals, but maybe there's some magic in Week one against the Eagles. He's still out there in seventy percent of Yahoo leagues. Andre Josevash is another. He's likely to start for the Bengals. He could end up filling that Tyler boyd roll So if he has a good day, he'll obviously be someone that we want to pick up off the waiver wire.

00:04:08
Speaker 3: Now.

00:04:09
Speaker 1: I still like Jermaine Burton more long term, or at least think Burton presents more upside, but Yosebash could have some value early on in the season. Another one who I think needs to be rostered everywhere is Jalen McMillan. I really liked McMillan as a prospect. My model did too. He had production marks in that model that looked better than Jalen Polk in that exact same offense. And one of the comps in my model for McMillan was Aman Ross Saint Brown. He's not built exactly like ARSB, but there were some analytical similarities, which is why the models said what it did. He should be able to find the field in three wide sets and the Bucks get the Commanders in week one, who rank as a bottom five secondary this year. Now there are two more rookies to call out. There was a report that Luke McCaffrey is more like the wide receiver four, wide receiver five and the Commanders right now, but they have a pretty clear need at slot receiver, which is what McCaffrey is at this point. He only has two years of wide receiver experience, but his prospect score wasn't all that bad in the ZAP model with that context, despite the lack of experience, and he's in an offense that should run pretty up tempo and it lacks alternatives outside of Terry McLaurin. So maybe he surprises and he gets usage that we're not totally projecting in Week one, and then an even deeper rookie wide receiver look Malik Washington. Odell Beckham is on ir Jalen Wattle is dealing with an injury. Malik Washington had a monster final collegiate season at Virginia this past year, and he fits this Miami offense well. In my opinion, he has a really great ability to generate yards after the catch. Now we have no idea how they're going to deploy their wide receivers, especially if Waddle's out, but Washington's at least a name to watch. This has questions also from Patreon. It's from Rick as you value wide receivers more than other positions in your rankings more than other analysts. While I agree with this, it creates a scenario where going off your rankings for a draft could potentially leave you not drafting a running back until the RB three range. How would you handle this? Thanks? So, I've gotten this question more than a dozen times over the last couple of weeks.

00:06:22
Speaker 3: Let's dig in.

00:06:23
Speaker 1: So I use my rankings and I tier them and those tiers are based off of one quarterback, two running back, three wide receiver, one tight end in one flex formats half PPR. Now, as I say to everyone, your scoring settings, they're actually less important for a ranking sheet than the demand of each position in your lineup, your lineup requirements. If you only need two wide receivers instead of three, that's going to change draft strategy more than if you're in a full PPR leaguers a half PPR one and you can listen to episode seven hundred and seventy for more on that. Now, a lot of people have this exact same concern, the same concern that Rick has, But I have to say this is all intentional. The fact that you're not getting your first running back sometimes until RB three range using these rankings past the running back dead zone pass players who generally don't give you substantially better outcomes compared to guys that you're getting an RB three and RB four range. That's completely intentional because in a league where you're starting three wideouts, the position matters more. And on top of that, your league mates are going to be reaching for RB two types like as a mere white when they don't have to do that you should be targeting more ambiguous backfields anyway for more upside. Now, if you're in a league where wide receiver isn't in a high demand, you have to be reactive to what your league mates are doing and how they're drafting. Use the principles that I talk about in the draft guide to try to avoid those lower end RB two traps. Force yourself to get at least an anchor running back earlier, even if that means taking Bijon Robinson or Breise Hall above Tyreek Hill and CD Lamb. But be okay with some of the lower end RB ones as well. You have to adjust. It's not possible, and I don't think it's even smart, but it's not possible to make a rankings list that simply works for every single league, because when you do that, you can run into issues where drafters aren't reacting to what's going on in their drafts. That's fundamentally the most important part of drafting. It's the way you extract the most value. Now, maybe that answers a turnoff for people. Maybe you just want more of the answers or a sheet where you can just check a box. I totally get that, and for the record, Rick, I'm not saying that you're one of these types of people, but if you are, I understand that. I'm not here to say that my way is the only way that works for people. I just fundamentally care about people really digging in and understanding these in draft nuances, which is why I lay out what I lay out in the draft guide. I could very easily focus all of my time, all of my energy on projection related rankings that adjust for your half point per first down league. To me, it's more beneficial to explain how all that works as opposed to just handing something off. But like I said, how my rankings are set up, it's all intentional. What you're running into is a league that may be overvaluing the running back position that leads.

00:09:23
Speaker 3: To a more zero RB approach for your team.

00:09:26
Speaker 1: If you feel uncomfortable doing that, which is totally valid, then it's time to adjust and make sure you're adjusting based online up requirements. That goes a long long way. This last questions from Patreon as well. It's from Josh. It says, Hey, JJ, longtime listener and brand new Patreon subscriber, Welcome in my twelve team PPR home league, I drafted DeVante Smith in the sixth round. Couldn't pass up. The value problem is I drafted aj Brown in the first round should slash? Can I start both? Or should I try and move Davante Smith for a comparable wide receiver. So I think you can play both if you want to. But I also think it's fine to want to move on and not have all of your eggs in this Eagles basket or Eagles nest if you will. Now, like I've said in the past, if you have a team with a lot of roster spots and a lot of slots in your starting lineup, it'll be easier to take on more than one player from an NFL team. If you're starting just two wide receivers and both of those wide receivers are on the Eagles, that's a little scarier. So depending on your situation there. That's my answer on whether you should do what you can to move on from DeVante Smith. But one thing to keep in mind here, and this goes for any player who falls in the draft and becomes a huge value. One thing to keep in mind is that your league has already largely told you how they feel about that player. Your league doesn't value DeVante Smith the way he should be valued. And since I'm high on him, or you might be high on him, bank on that. Trust your own research and say, you know what, rather than trading Smith right now, I'll show them that he's a good fantasy asset. I'll trade him for even more once the season gets going a little bit, once he shows up and gives us the production that we think he's gonna give us. Like, there's a decent chance that in your league, Smith's demand is at its lowest right now. Of course, this could also go south. Davante Smith might not be as good of a fantasy asset as we think. But I like Smith this year. You probably like Smith this year, so it might be worthwhile to just wade it out in order to maximize your return. And by the time you trade him more, rosters will simply need a player like Davonte Smith. They'll need that help. The nice question is from Twitter is from at Manna Underscore Dork. It says, one of the arguments I keep hearing against Saquon Barkley is that Jalen Hurts is gonna steal goal line.

00:11:54
Speaker 3: Touches via the tush push.

00:11:56
Speaker 1: But what is the likelihood that the Eagles see as many plays at the one year yard line this season. So the Eagles ran a play at the one yard line in twelve games last year, which was the highest of any team in football. Now, I'd rather look at it from that perspective, because if you just go by plays run, teams who were simply bad at running it from the one yard line would be higher on that list. The Eagles, though, were seventh highest in plays run from the one They just converted eleven of those fifteen plays the touchdowns, according to the data that I'm looking at from stadthead dot com. Now, let's look at twenty twenty two. In twenty twenty two, it was the Lions who had the most games with a play run from the one yard line. That's why Jamal Williams benefited so greatly in fantasy football. Philadelphia was at seven games. That's much lower than the twelve games from last year, but they did run the same number of plays from the one yard line year over year. Now we might see a little regression there, but the Eagles also have a good offense. They'll just naturally have more opportunities from that area of the What I think is more important for Saquon is the fact that DeAndre Swift just last year, he actually didn't have a bad expected touchdowns number. He was tenth in the NFL among running backs last year and expected touchdowns according to PFF's model, meaning where he was getting touches, we would have expected him to score around eight times. He scored five. Swift had fourteen goal line rushes last year that ranked eleventh among all running backs.

00:13:29
Speaker 3: I don't think.

00:13:29
Speaker 1: People realize that he actually had some opportunity to score last year. It's not so black and white. That's part of the reason why I've been okay with where Saquon Barkley goes in drafts. He's a better player than DeAndre Swift, and he's the best running back that the Eagles have had with Jalen Hurts.

00:13:48
Speaker 3: No, I don't think the tush push is going to go away. So yes, that.

00:13:51
Speaker 1: Does cap saquon ceiling to some degree, But I also don't think that means that Saquon is bound for like five or six touchdowns right now to I haven't projected for about ten. The last question this week is from Patreon. It's from Jamie. It says, hey, JJ it's a little different to your typical mailbag questions, but I was wondering about your process. You've been my bible for about five years now and it's treated me very well. I love your approach.

00:14:18
Speaker 3: Thank you.

00:14:19
Speaker 1: My question is about how a take begins for you when you sit down to start your day of research.

00:14:24
Speaker 3: How do you get started?

00:14:25
Speaker 1: Is your research fueled by gut feelings that you want to explore potential substance in do you choose a theme to delve into and look for outliers. I'd love to conduct some first hand research and develop takes of my own, but it's such a vast sea of information and putting weight in the wrong numbers can lead to bad takes. So back in my number Fire days, and I'm talking many many years ago, because eventually a Number Fire I stopped doing editor like tasks at some point, but I was managing a ton of writers, and I was helping them develop articles for the website, helping them come up with a topic, and then I talk through some of the research elements to it. One of the things that's very, very very obvious in sports writing, and specifically fantasy football writing, is that people research in the opposite way that they should be researching. In what I mean by that is, instead of letting the actual numbers and results of something guide them, they first find their conclusion. They start with their conclusion, and then they find all the numbers and results to help fit that conclusion. Anyone can do that, and in a game like fantasy football, you'll realize very quickly how badly that can screw you up, because that's not actual research. That's just a take, and just having a take that's backed by nothing is going to lead to poor results. Now, I always told people to just ask questions, don't provide answers.

00:15:47
Speaker 3: Ask questions.

00:15:48
Speaker 1: If there's something out there that you don't know the answer to and you can't find anyone who's researched that topic, simply ask the question and start researching. That research might lead you to appsbsolutely nothing.

00:16:01
Speaker 3: I can't even.

00:16:02
Speaker 1: Explain to you, guys, how many questions I've tried to answer that led to zero content. But don't publish content for the sake of publishing content, You guys, only see the final result of whatever I'm doing. But there are plenty of times where I pivoted the topic or ended up with a completely different conclusion based on what the data was saying. Let the research tell the story. You're just the deliverer of that information. Just like anything, though, as you get more and more reps, you just start to realize what you need to be looking for. I talk about the things that I look at and look for all the time on the show. You just got to get some reps in. You have to see what you're good at, what you're comfortable with, and what works. Like what works for me is just knowing some of the specific metrics that I'm going to look at each week and just sifting through the data when I get it each week during the NFL season. But then just looking at that data naturally leads me to asking the questions.

00:17:01
Speaker 3: That I was just talking about.

00:17:02
Speaker 1: When you're looking at things like backfield share and fantasy points scored and target share, like not super complicated metrics, When you're looking at those things, you'll start to ask some questions. Actually, going back to the pokin Akua example from earlier is a really good example of this. Last year, if you guys listened to my post Week one fifteen Transactions episode, I talked about pookin Akua, but not just from the sense of, yeah, go add Nakua. I was saying, be aggressive with adding pokin Akua, because what I did was I looked at his production in Week one from a rookie wide receiver, and I compared that to history, and historically what pokin Akua had done was historic. It was an outlier, it was insane, and I was okay with buying into that because it was clear that something serious was happening there. And that was driven strictly from a question of have we seen this before? Because if we had seen it before, and if all of the players who had done that before did really poorly moving forward, then I wouldn't have been as bullish I'm Pookinakua. You have to ask those questions. The bottom line is you just have to be curious. Don't assume that you have the answers, because you do not have the answers. There are many ways the look of this stuff, not one single way is gonna be flawless. I'm gonna miss so many things throughout this upcoming NFL season. But what I try to do, what I try to do so so much, is not be swayed by my own predetermined narrative. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere. Podcast can be found interfor to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB, and make sure you're subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel. You can find that at YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. Thanks for listening everyone. There's a Late Round Perspective episode that's about to drop today. Give that a listen to otherwise I'll talk to you next week with Week one content. It's go time.