1072: Week 16 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha. J J zacher reson what's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten to seventy two of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's sleeper show. Wasn't that terrible? It was honestly the best quarterback week of the season in terms of standard Fantasy points. Brock Perty had twenty six, Jackson Dart twenty two, Trevor Lawrence forty four, C J. Stroud twenty three, and JJ McCarthy twenty four. Even Aaron Rodgers was usable. It doesn't get much better than that. Tight end was pretty good too. Harold Fannon had twelve PPR points, Dalton Schultz scored almost twenty two, and Darren Waller posted almost twenty six. In Chicago's defense great streaming choice, so the onesI positions were great, The running backs and wide receivers not so much. On the flip side, Chewba Hubbard, Kyle Manungai Chimmer, Andre Josibash and my preferred choice of Devin Singletary over Tyrone Tracy were all misses. Tajy Spears didn't get a ton of work either in a plus matchup for his receiving skill set, and then San Francisco that defense that he faced and Dallas they were bad streaming defenses. It was hit or miss as usual, but there were some big hits in there. This is actually the last week for this sleeper show because of the holiday, so I'm looking to finish strong. I'll still have all my rankings in such next week on Patreon, but for this show this is the last one. Let's end things on a high note. We'll kick things off by looking at players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues, and somehow Jacoby Burssett, maybe because he faced the Texans last week, He's sixty six percent rostered right now, despite the fact that he's quite literally finish as a top twelve quarterback every single started this season. Not only is percent a good play because of that, but he gets a Falcons team that rings fifteenth middle of the road and adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks. Atlanta has also been worse against quarterba late, having given up fifteen or more standard Fantasy points and seven of their last eight. So Bersett's a strong option. CJ. Stroud's another one I do worry about the Texans leaning on the run in this game against Vegas, but Houston, they have a really good twenty six point in ply team total. Stroud's coming off a game that has similar potential game script, and he posted twenty three Fantasy points. I'm not in love with him this week, but I do think that team total can carry him. At running back, I'm gonna start with Cuba Hubbard. I know rico' dowdell was sort of the more obvious selection for the Panthers backfield last week, and Hubbard ended up with just eight carries and one target, but Cuba still played forty three percent of Carolina snaps. He had a forty five percent route chair He's been playing their long down in distant snaps. Now. I anticipated a little bit more passing from Carolina in this game against Tampa Bay that probably favors Cuba a little bit more than Rico dowdle. Not that I would play him over Dowdle straight up, but teams against Tampa Bay generally see their pass rates increase by five percentage points, and the Bucks have just been bad to We saw that last week against Atlanta. They now rank eleventh worst and the justin points allowed to running backs. I wouldn't love to rely on Hubbard, but as a sleeper, I can see a path. Jordan Mason's a little bit of a deeper play, but just like Chewba Hubbard, I can see a path with Mason too. Don't expect volume through the air, but Mason's seen eleven to ten rush attempts over his last two games. Now, the Vikings get the Giants and they're sitting his favorites, which means there's a chance they get ahead in that game, and they rely on their bruiser. And the Giants are the second best matchup for running backs this year by justin points allowed. They've allowed thirty rushing yards per game this year over expected to running backs. That's the second highest mark in the league. So, like Hubbard, I prefer Mason's backfield teammate Aaron Jones. But there's at least some potential here. Kamani Bidel is playing more snaps than Amari and Hampton, and while Hampton did get more work on the ground than him last week, Fidell still saw a forty four percent running back rush. Are the Chargers get the Cowboys this week? And yes, Dallas has been better against the run since training for Quinn Williams, but Williams is also in concussion protocol. I think even if he goes, it's a pretty high scoring environment where Videll's going to find the field, especially if there's a trailing game script because they trust him more in pass pro, so I think he's in okay play if you're desperate. Kenneth gain was the last running back in this tier to call out, and I don't love this matchup against Detroit. So the third worst matchup for running backs by justin points allowed and within this game. What's kind of interesting. Detroit's fourth lowest and adjusted target share allowed to running backs. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh rings second in the NFL and running back target share, So the matchup is not good on paper. But Gainwell has now had an RB one performance in PPR leagues and four of his last five games for real, he's averaging a target share per game rate of almost twenty two percent over his last five. That kind of usage, especially in PPR formats, it's just hard to ignore a wide receiver. I don't mind Jordan Addison. The Giants are a top half matchup for wide receivers by justin points a lot, and while Addison only saw two targets last week in an awesome matchup, he did see target shairs of thirty five percent and thirty percent the two weeks prior. There's definitely volatility here, but that's to be expected at this point with these non elite wide receivers. The matchup is at least strong, and we've seen him with high target share games. The matchup that Addison couldn't take advantage of last week, Dallas, that's one that Keenan Allen and Quintin Johnston they're gonna get this week now. Obviously, if Johnston can't go again, then I'd be in on Allen. I think Allen is fine regardless. He's seen target shares of twenty five percent, twenty four percent, thirteen percent, and twenty seven percent over his last four games. He does take a decent hit if QJ is back because QJ will push Allen more into the slot. This past week, Allen only played twenty five percent of his snaps from the slot. That was a season low, and Dallas they've been bad against perimeter wide receivers. The best matchup on paper for wide receivers, and that's why these guys should be on your radar. At tight end this tier, Juwan Johnson could be a decent play. Devon Vley's banged up, he's already ruled out for this week. That makes Johnson an even better play than usual. The Saints get a beatable Jets defense that's been average against tight ends by adjustin points allowed, and Johnson's averaged a nineteen percent target chair per game rate over his last eight with a reasonable twenty two and a half point total for the Saints. That is, I think Juwan Johnson's fine. I don't love him, but you could definitely do worse. And then I'm also going to go back to Harold Fannin. I've already gotten a ton of questions about Fannin this week, and my general vibe is that you should probably play it. He had a forty five percent target share last week that was the highest of any tight end this season. With Shador Sanders under center, Fannon has a target share per game rate of thirty two percent. He scored double digit PPR points in each of his last three. Now, the reason why people were asking me questions is because, on paper, this is the toughest matchup for tight ends. They get Buffalo in Cleveland. They only have a sixteen point in ply team total. I know matchups matter, and that's a big focus of this show, but they're not everything. That's why I always lead with volume. We want volume first and foremost, and Harold Fannin he's getting that volume. And then another tight end that I'm getting tons of questions about for obvious reasons is Darren Waller. He definitely takes a hit with Tua being benched, but it's hard to deny this matchup. This is sort of the opposite of what I just talked about with Harold Fannin. We have unknown usage with Darren Waller, though he did have a thirty one percent target share last week. But man, this matchup amazing. Cincinnati was good against Ravens tight ends last week, but they still are giving up nine pier points per game above expected to opposing team tight ends. The next closest team is Pittsburgh, who are four point three points per game above expected. I still think Waller's in play, just not as like a mid range tight end one like he was with Tua. Right now. He's probably more high end tight end two. Territory. The next group of players consist of guys rostered in fewer than fifty percent of leagues, so naturally there's gonna be more players to call out here at quarterback. I've got a handful of guys for you. First is JJ McCarthy. I don't think you need to totally force it this week, but the Giants are a top ten matchup by austin points allowed, and I'd say McCarthy has looked more competent over the last couple of weeks in a plus matchup. Both of them are plus matchups, and he's produced his two best EPA per dropback games in those matchups, and Minnesota has a reasonable twenty three point ply team total. So that's one streamer for you. Next is Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers are likely gonna have to keep pace against Detroit this week and the Lions. They've been a top ten matchup for quarterbacks this year by justin points allowed, they've also given up nineteen passing yards over expected per game to quarterbacks. Now, like I said, with this matchup, I don't really love it for the Steelers offense because they target their running backs so much and Detroit they're generally good at limiting that, but I do think that Rogers is still a deeper super flex play this week. Bryce Young is someone that I actually do like. Tampa Bay's kind of a pass funnel defense where teams against them see their pass rate rise by five percentage points, and the Bucks have played well above expected when limiting running back rushing yards, but they've allowed almost thirty passing yards per game over expected to quarterbacks, meaning we should expect Bryce Young to have thirty more passing yards than normal, and that's just an average. The Panthers don't have the most amazing team total this week, but I do think they're gonna have to toss it around more than usual that could result in more points for Bryce Young. Tyler Shuck has been getting it done lately. I mean, for how people think about Tyler Shuck. He scored seventeen to twenty one and eighteen standard Fantasy points over his last three New Orleans. They have a decent enough implied team total this week, and the Jets their opponent. They bring seventh and adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks this year. We've seen Shuck offer up some rushing upside too, and I wonder if we could see that even more with Devin Neils sidelined, so I don't mind him as a deep play. And then lastly, I'm buying more and more into Kirk Cousins this week. I probably wouldn't play Cousins without Drake London, or at least I wouldn't be as confident. But if London is back this week, the Falcons get a Cardinals team that's giving up a top ten fantasy performance and four of their last five games. This game is in a dome and Atlanta surprisingly has a twenty five point implied team total. So again, if Drake London is back, I think Cousins really works. Even if he doesn't play, you might still be able to play Cousins. Moving on a running back, I've got to just throw it out there to monitor all of the injuries. Right now, I don't have all the proper information to talk about certain guys. You can reference the fifteen Transaction show to know who those players are, and then I'll add them to this sleepers list if the starter's officially out. So those players like Jawar Jordan, Malik Davis, and Julil McLoughlin. Michael Carter is not really one of those players because he should just be on your radar, like I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show. Now, I think Amarri de Mercado is going to see more work in that backfield than he did last week. But Carter did come away with a seventy eight percent running back rush share, and the last time we saw Carter and de Mercado kind of in the same situation, Carter walked away with a seventy two percent running back rush share and a seventeen percent target share. De Marcado has seen more than forty two percent of the team's running back rushes in just one game this year. Now, obviously the coaching staff they can do whatever they want, but to me, all of the signs are pointing towards Michael Carter and the Cardinals. They get a pretty advantageous matchup against the Falcons this week. That's a scene that's been struggling defensively over the second half of the season. They're an above average matchup for running backs right now by justin fantasy points allowed. Samaj p Ran is kind of an interesting deep play this week. There's a decent chance the Bengals play with a nice script because they're now facing quinn Ewers. Pe Ran has actually seen attempt totals of fourteen, six and fourteen over their last three games. He had a fifty two percent running back rush share last week. Miami's become an average it for running backs by justin points allowed, but they're an above average opponent and adjusted rushing yards allowed to running backs. I could see a scenario where game script allowed samajp Ryan to get a decent amount of work. I mean, he's already been seeing a decent amount of work. There really aren't that many running backs to choose from, so again, keep an eye out on these injuries. It's just that time of year where we generally know who's productive, so the percent roster numbers they're tougher to work with with a show like this. So let's move on to wide receiver. Let's talk about Jayden Reid. Even if Christian Watson goes this week. I like Jayden Reid. My numbers have the Bears as essentially the best slot matchup in the league. You could maybe argue San Francisco's a little bit better, maybe Washington too, but Chicago's right up there, and that's where Jayden Reid lives and eats. Reed saw a nineteen percent target chair against the Bears a couple of weeks ago. He was in the slot on eighty two percent of his routes run. He scored nine point three PPR points, which is fine, But the Packers were also playing at home and had a relatively easier time with their ground game approach. They had a fifty percent pass rate. They're usually above that, So I think Reid could walk into this game and see six or seven targets given this matchup, and it's against a team that's all the most adjusted wide receiver points of the slot this year. That's what makes Reed a really interesting play. Now, I just mentioned that San Francisco slot matchup. They get the Colts this week. Josh Downs hit double digit PPER points last week for the first time in a month. With Philip Rivers under center. Alec Pierce was the one who suffered most downs, had a nineteen percent target chair in that game. He ran eighty one percent of his routes out of the slot. With San Francisco's offense likely to move the ball well this week, it wouldn't surprise me if the Colts had to play a little bit more aggressively than they did last week, and that could really allow Downs to be an OK play. After his twenty eight percent target share last week, ad Ni Mitchell is at a twenty seven percent target chair per game rate with the Jets. He's seen spiked weeks of twenty four and seventeen PPER points and two of his last three. The Jets aren't in the greatest spot this week. On paper, New Orleans is probably a better matchup than you'd think though for Mitchell. Yes, they're bottom ten adjusted points allowed to wide receivers, but they've been totally average at limiting perimeter wide receivers. It's just that they crush slot wide outs. They've been the best in fantasy points allowed to slot receivers in the entire NFL. Mitchell doesn't play in the slot, so I think he's still an OK play this week. Now. I'm expecting Roma Dunes to be out this week, and right now at the time of this recording, things are really up in the air with Luther Burden. If Burden goes, you have to like him against Green Bay. I talked all about him on yesterday's ten Trends episode. If he doesn't go, you could look at a Lama Dae Zakias Zakia saw a seventy eight percent rouch here for Chicago last week, those second highest on the team, largely because Luthor Burden was sidelined, but he would operate as their number two wide receiver. It's not a great matchup, but they're at home. Micah Parsons is now out and the Bears have an ok enough two twenty two and a half point implied team total. And then the last wide receiver in this tier is Jalen Cocher. He's seen target shares of thirty percent and nineteen percent over his last two games, scoring seventeen and fourteen PPR points. The Panthers get that aforementioned pass funnel defense against the Bucks, so we could see more pass attempts, and those peripherals could go a long way against his defense at tight end. If we do see Luther Burdens sidelined, it'll make Colston Loveland an even better play. Loveland has been awesome per route run. He just doesn't always get those routes, but I'd imagine he'd be featured more if they were without Burden and a dounsay. Loveland has seen target shares of nineteen percent eighteen percent and nineteen percent over his last three games. He unfortunately hasn't been up to that seventy percent route share mark, but that could again increase without burden and a dounsay Green Bay is not the best matchup, but the lack of weapons could really help Loveland out. People are not gonna want to hear this, but Isaiah likely he's kind of a decent streamer this week. He didn't see a single target last week, but he did see a pretty usual route share for him with a healthy Mark Andrews. He actually ran one more route than Andrews. This game against New England, it sets up as one where Baltimore could throw the ball more than usual. Teams against the Patriots usually see their pass rate rise by three percentage points versus their season long average, and New England's a top ten match up for tight ends by adjusted points allowed, so don't be overly surprised if Likely is usable this week. And then lastly, we got to talk about this Rams situation. As long as DeVante Adams is out, Colby Parkinson is a top ten tight end play this week. He's averaged thirteen and a half PPR points per game over his last six He's been used frequently in the red zone. They get Seattle on Thursday night, and the Seahawks are thirteenth and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends and their eighth and adjusted points allowed to the position. But while I'm talking about Parkinson, I don't think we should sleep on Terrence Ferguson. He's more of the quintessential pass catch tight end. He has that build, he has that athleticism, and he actually ran more routes than Colby Parkinson last week. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Rams featured Terrence Ferguson more with DeVante Adams out. He's more of that one to one with Adams. So if you really want to play some hero ball in the playoffs, Ferguson is a deep play with the defensive streamers this week, I've got three of them for you. New Orleans is the easy go to against the Jets. I don't mind Minnesota against the Giants, and then now that Tua is benched, I think Cincinnati's in play against Miami. The Bengals have actually finished is the defense nine to five, seventeen to ten over their last four games. They're not great defensively, but they haven't been quite as bad as they were earlier this year, So those are the three defenses this week. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are brustturing for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. Given next week's Sleepers episode falls on Christmas Day, this is actually the last Sleeper show the season. I hope you liked the newer format this year, and I really hope it helped you out. I'll be back tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.