309: 15 Transactions for Week 10

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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharesen, the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com. And this is episode three hundred and nine of the Late Round podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Today is a fifteen transactions day. But before digging in, I wanted to send you guys another reminder to check out odds Fire. It's an awesome odds comparison tool that number fire engineers put together, and it allows you to easily see odds across major book makers and the regulated US market. I use it a lot for analyzing things like line movement because that can dictate who I play in my fantasy leagues each week. But go check it out at oddsfire dot com. Gambling problem called one eight hundred Gambler hold or by Ronald Jones. Look, I've made it known on this podcast the last couple of years. I'm not the biggest Ronald Jones fan, or I wasn't the biggest Ronald Jones fan as he entered the NFL, and I had Jones as a cell candidate back in like Week one or Week two, because I wasn't ready to buy into the Tampa Bay rushing attack, and I think that advice was the right advice given both the process and the result. But things change with new information, and Sunday's performance for Ronald Jones was a big performance, not just because he was able to get eighty two yards in a touchdown, but because his peripheral numbers looked better than we've seen all season long. Against Seattle, Jones saw seventy eight point three percent of Tampa Bay's running back rushes. That's his highest single game share of the season. He ended the game with a four point seven percent target share, which is the number that he's only hit twice this year, and according to Pro Football Focus, he ran eighteen routes. That was also a season high. Now, most importantly, from a snap share standpoint, Jones was on the field for fifty three percent of Tampa Bay snaps. That also is the best mark of the season for him, and it's the highest snap share for any Buccaneers running backs week two. Now, I think there's some concern about how effective the Buccaneers can be running the ball and utilizing their running backs as receivers. But Week nine against Seattle was nothing but great for Ronald Jones. If the manager in your league who has Ronald Jones isn't that much of a believer, I would send a trade offer by DeVante Adams. So the Packers didn't look all that great. With DeVante Adams back on the field on Sunday, he had just forty one yards receiving. But this also brings a nice by low opportunity. In that game, DeVante Adams saw a thirty one point four percent target share in his five active games this year, He's gotten below a twenty six and a half percent target share just once. He's gonna be fed in this offense, and that's the first big hurdle in becoming a fantasy football stud. But the thing is he hasn't found the end zone this year. We know that yards correlate strongly to touchdowns. I talk about it basically every single episode of the show, and based on Devonte adams four hundred and nineteen receiving yards, when you look at howide receivers have scored with that type of receiving yardage over the last five years, he should have about two point six touchdowns, and like I said, he hasn't scored yet. That makes him one of the biggest positive touchdown regression candidates in all of football. So if you can buy DeVante Adams low, I would do it. Sell Derrick Henry. People might think that I'm a Derrick Henry hater because I seem to talk about him as a sell a lot on this show, but I actually don't mind Derrick Henry the player. I hate the Tennessee Titans offense and I hate the way that they use him. As I said in the fifteen transactions, call him this week on number five, Henry's like a late season episode of How I Met Your Mother. He's fine. He'll likely give you RB two numbers from here on out given the state of the running back position, but considering his lack of receiving usage, I don't see where the upside is unless he has one of those outlier type runs like we witnessed at the end of last year. Derrick Henry now has eight total touchdowns this season, but based on his yardage totals, he should have closer to five, and you might think that he's gonna outperform the yards to touchdowns conversion because of the work that he's gonna see at the goal line. But guys, Dereck Henry only has five carries from within the five yard line this year. That ties him for twenty six in the NFL, and that's because the Titans offense isn't very good. They bring seventh worst than yards per drive and as a result of not moving the ball that well, they've run the fourth fewest red zone plays. And considering Derek Henry has a target share that's below seven percent, we know his upside is likely gonna come down to his rushing yards and his rushing touchdowns, and his rushing touchdowns, like I just talked about, they're gonna be kind of hard to come by because this offense isn't very good, and that makes him an obvious sell. Now, I should note they do get Kansas City this week. That's a good matchup on paper, So if you want to wait to sell Dereck Henry, it's understandable. But like I talk about a lot on the show, a good matchup doesn't guarantee good production. So if Dereck Henry doesn't perform, his value is going to diminish. And do keep in mind that the Titans, get the Texans and the Saints during the fantasy football playoffs in weeks fifteen and sixteen. Right now, both Houston and New Orleans ranking the top eight and fantasy points allowed to the running back position. So there's a chance that Derrick Henry could struggle when you need him the most. By Marquise Brown. So, Hollywood Brown was on the field for the first time since Week five on Sunday Night against New England, and while he didn't have a great fantasy line, he did look like his explosive self when he had the ball in his hands. Now, don't forget when Brown was healthy. Across the first five games of the season, his target chair never went below seventeen point nine percent in a single game. It was seventeen point three percent on Sunday Night, but that's in a game where he was returning from injury and facing one of the best secondaries in football. He only played fifty seven percent of Baltimore snaps. His snap share started to reach the eighty percent range when he was healthy or before the injury. I just think that Hollywood Brown is the type of player who could take off during the final portion of the fantasy football season, and that's especially true because in the fantasy playoffs, the Ravens get the Jets and the Browns add DeVante Parker. From weeks one through six, the Dolphins were averaging twenty one point six yards per drive. They were scoring on sixteen point seven percent of their drives. Both of those numbers are the second worst in football. And then Ryan Fitzpatrick took over this offense once again. Over the last three weeks. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Miami's ranked eleventh from the bottom and yards per drive, and they've scored on twenty nine percent of their drives as a result. That's also a huge increase. Preston Williams and Deavante Parker have both benefited. During the first six weeks of the season, Parker and Williams finish his top twenty wide receivers and weekly scoring just once, they finished his top thirty ones just twice. Over the last three weeks, those two wide receivers have accumulated three top twenty performances and four almost five of them top thirty ones, and both of those wide receivers have been averaging about a twenty three and a half percent target share during this time. Now Unfortunately, Preston Williams is now out for the year. He would have been a great waiver wire ad but he's now out. But I think the data that I just shared shed some light to the opportunity in Miami's offense. Devonte Parker, as a result, should absolutely be added this week sell Adrian Peterson. So with Bill Callahan as head coach for Washington, Adrian Peterson has averaged ninety five point six rushing yards on nearly nineteen attempts per game. Because Callahan loves to establish the run, Peterson has seen at least eighty percent of the team's running back carries in every single Callahan coach game. Now. In turn, Peterson's ranked as a top twenty running back in weekly PPR, scoring in three of four games under Callahan. But there are some problems. Peterson's still not being heavily utilized as a receiver. He's averaging a little over a target per game right now, and Peterson is continuing to give us a floor rather than a ceiling. He's been consistent, but there have still been twenty six running backs with at least two games played over this timeframe during Bill Callahan as head coach, who have averaged more PPR points per game than Adrian pa And it's not just because his lack of involvement as a receiver. It's also the offense that he's in. It's the lack of scoring. Now, typically a player with a lot of yards, we'd expect him to score more touchdowns. Generally speaking, I would be saying by Adrian Peterson, but this offense is really not great. Regardless of the opponents that they've had. They're averaging under nine points per game under Bill Callahan. And then there's one big, big issue for Adrian Peterson moving forward. Darius Geiss could be returning add Darius Geis, So like I just said, Darius Guys could be returning to this Washington offense. It's not the best place for running backs to thrive though, but Geist does present more upside than Adrian Peterson because there's a chance that they just feature him as the team's workhorse. Unlike Adrian Peterson, Darius Guys could see more work as a receiver. Wendell Smallwood has taken some of that work over the last two weeks. He has five targets. So, like I said in last week's Mailbag show, it's hard to sell dari Geice as a league winning ad considering the offense he's gonna be playing in. But given the fact that he should be returning in Week eleven, he should be rostered by DJ Shark. There's going to be a lot of fantasy managers who are questioning Jacksonville's passing attack after what they did in London this past week, and that creates a by low opportunity. Now DJ Shark is overperforming in the touchdown column given his yardage total. He has one point eight more touchdowns than he probably should. But there's a lot to like about a situation. He's seen over twenty three percent of Jacksonville's targets this year, and he's hit a twenty percent target chair in five of his last six games. And take a look at Jacksonville's schedule down the stretch. They still get to face Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Oakland, and the games against Atlanta and Oakland are during the Fantasy football playoffs. Those two teams are allowing the fourth most and second most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this year, So if you're feeling good about making the playoffs, I think DJ Shark is a great buy. But even if you're not, I still think he's fine. Buy DJ Moore. Another DJ to trade for this week is DJ Moore. Over his last four games, he hasn't had a target share below twenty four point three percent. He's seeing a ton of volume in this offense. He just hasn't really blown up because he hasn't found the end zone since Week three. But his five hundred and sixty four receiving yards tell us that he should have two point four more touchdowns than he currently has. Only seven skill players have a larger discrepancy between the number of touchdowns they've scored and the number of touchdowns they should have scored based on the yardage totals, So I like DJ Moore as a bye ad. Zach Pascal with t Y Hilton sideline, Zach Pascal stepped in for Indy and he saw twenty percent of the team's targets on Sunday against Pittsburgh. That led the team, and he was productive. He got five of his six targets for seventy five yards in a touchdown. Hilton's expected to miss a few weeks or at least one or two more. That makes Pascal a good waiver wire ad for wide receiver needy teams sell Jamal Williams. So since Jamal Williams has come back from that really awful concussion back in Week four, so we have four weeks he's ranked as the RB four in PPR points per game at the running back position. And meanwhile, during this time, he's hit a fifty percent snap share in a single game just once. That alone tells us that you should probably be selling Jamal Williams right now, and it's true you should. Williams has been fortunate to have scored at least once in each of these last four games. And now, as you'd probably guess, he's a pretty big negative touchdown regression candidate. His yardage shutal dictates that he should have three point six fewer touchdowns than he currently has. Like, honestly, it'd be one thing if Williams was leading the backfield in snaps or if he was seeing a consistent target share above fifteen or twenty percent, but that hasn't been the case. Like I just said, he's rarely hitting the fifty percent snap share mark and he's been below the ten percent target share mark in two of his last four games. Ad Gus Edwards this transaction is really just to say, ad your freaking hands, this is the time of year that you should be adding handcuffs. Gus Edwards is just one of them. You need to get. Alexander Madison, Tony Pollard, Kareem Hunt, Rashad Penny. Add handcuffs. Add handcuffs of running backs that aren't even on your team. They're better flyers than the majority of wide receivers or even some running backs that are on your roster right now, because if an injury happens, those players are going to be relevant. You don't need the wide receiver who's gonna randomly get you fifty yards during a bye week fill in. You can find that on the waiver wire by Alan Robinson. Now, look, it doesn't feel good targeting a Mitch Trubisky wide receiver in a trade right now. And I guess you could make the case that the Bears offense could be worse down the stretch here in twenty nineteen. But it's really difficult to ignore two things with Alan Robinson. First, you're buying him at a low point. That's great, But number two, he still has amazing peripherals. He catches one pass for six yards in a great matchup on Sunday, but he's still saw over twenty three percent of Chicago's targets. He's now hit a twenty one percent target chair in every single game this year. Only Michael Thomas can say the same thing. And realistically, if you look at Chicago's schedule, it's not too bad. That's especially true in the fantasy playoffs, where they're gonna get Green Bay in Kansas City. There could be a lot of passing from the Bears offense in those matchups. Add Ryan Tannehill. So with so many teams on by this week, streaming sucks. Whether it's defensive streaming or quarterback streaming, it kind of sucks quarterback streaming especially, But I think Ryan Tannehill looks like the best off the waiver wire play. The Titans are going up against the Chiefs in a game where Patrick Mahomes should be back, and if that's the case, and to be honest, even if it's not the case, it could force Tennessee to not run the ball as much. Kansas City's allowed the eleventh most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year, and three of the last four quarterbacks that they've faced have performed above their season long averages add the Indianapolis Colts defense. According to Fandels Sportsbook, the Colts are ten and a half point favorites this weekend at home against Miami. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown at least one interception in all but one start this season. It happened last week against the Jets, where he didn't throw an interception, and he's taken four sacks in each of his last two games. Now. Despite an average performance on Sunday, the Dolphins are still being sacked at the third highest rate in football. The Cults are available in sixty three percent of Yahoo leagues, and I think they're a good streamer. This week the sixteenth transaction that you can't get in my weekly fifteen Transactions column over on Number five dot com. This week is kind of an interesting one. It's kind of a high variance one, but it's to buy Ty Johnson. Trey Carson is now out of the picture for the Lions, and on Sunday, Ty Johnson handled over fifty six percent of Detroit's running back carries, which was a twenty six percent increase from the previous week. His target share wasn't amazing at seven point three percent. But at least he was still involved in the passing game. But more importantly, Johnson played sixty two percent of Detroit snaps. That's the fifth highest mark for any Lions running back this year, and it was a twenty four percent increase from last week. Now, I'm not expecting RB one numbers from Ty Johnson from here on out, but I'm sure the person with Johnson in your league doesn't have a lot of faith in him. But the peripherals really aren't that bad. I think swapping a relatively worthless bench piece for Ty Johnson right now makes a lot of sense. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by shooting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with a ten trend show.