Late-Round Perspectives: Rich Dotson

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Speaker 1: Rich Dotson is the co founder and owner of Dynasty Nerds, who's also done work for ESPN Cleveland. He loves all things Cleveland sports. He's a buck guy, a snowboarder, a Stephen King fan, and he's not afraid to make bold moves to win now in Dynasty.

00:00:14
Speaker 2: These are his late round perspectives.

00:00:32
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Speaker 3: And that's fine. I literally just put away of my Pittsburgh Pirates T shirt. Oh wow, Okay, that's really crazy you say that, because I literally just put away that I bought at Pirates Stadium like a couple of weeks ago, because like I grew up, my grandfather was a big Pittsburgh fan and he, you know, he got me into the Pirates real early. So my National League team is the Pirates. Still there, we go closely, but like big Paul skiens fan and reminds me of my grand grandfather. And I'm not one of those guys that says, like, man, listen, if you're from the area, that's your team, I have no qualm for them. Listen, right, sport, you should be more just as passionate you are about Pittsburgh or Tampa Bay or wherever as you as I am about Cleveland, right, like yeah, representative city. I have like issues just with people were like, hey, I live in Cleveland. I'm a New York Yankees fan in doubtas yeah. Yeah, Like come on, bro, like come I can't.

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Speaker 1: I can't back that. But here here's the other thing though, too, is did you were you born and raised Cleveland? You were just in Cleveland forever? Yeah? So I was born in raised Pittsburgh. I'n't lived in Pittsburgh for fourteen years at this point, and so I'm born and raised and I went to pitt and then ever since graduating college, I've been and I lived in Cincinnati for a little bit. Now I've been in Charlotte for about a decade. But to me, like Cleveland and Pittsburgh both are the kind of cities that it is just in your blood when you were born and raised in that environment. So it's even crazier when people I remember when people would like come to school in like a Broncos jersey or something. I'm like, what do you like, dude who don't even have ties? Like there's no there's no like familial ties to it or anything.

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Speaker 3: Like that.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, what are you doing, man, what are you doing?

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Speaker 3: It's crazy have some loyal to the city you're from, or at least like say you grew up. Like I have a buddy who's from LA born and raised in LA and he's a diehard Chiefs fan. But it has been forever and he because when Joe Montana got traded to the Chiefs, he was a Joe Montana's fan. So when he was little. That makes sense to me, right, and pre Pat Mahomes, the Chiefs were terrible, so like it makes a lot of sense. But yeah, I'm a big hometown guy. Sports is obviously runs through my blood. In Pittsburgh and Cleveland are very similar cities in so many different ways or so many of the same ways, and sports is one thing that really ties those cities together.

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Speaker 1: I gotta say this too, This is one of the few times in my life where Cleveland's sports are objectively better than Pittsburgh sports right now, because you know, if you think about it, because obviously the Steelers are a little bit better than the than the Browns, but the the the uh yeah, yeah and that, but like the Calves are good, you know, and the Penguins have been horrible, you know, since basically since they've they've won their back to back Cups and then the only you know, the difference then would be in baseball and at least the Guardians are competitive. The Pirates are the Pirates. You know, it's one of the most depressing. It's honestly very difficult for me to back a team like that when you know ownership doesn't care at all.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it blows my mind going to Pirates games and like I've been to two and then both games I've been to, it's crazy in between ends constantly the fans screaming in unison sell the team. I'm like, do they do this all the time? And a guy behind me is like, we do it all the time. And it is because like when you have an owner in sports, if you're passion about it, like knowing you have no chance. You know, I'm lucky enough where the Indians. Guardians are an extremely well run organization, right like a competitive year in, year out, have been since nineteen ninety five for the most it's a very long time. So like they have a team you root for in a league that doesn't have a salary cap or a salary floor, like baseball, knowing like your owner is holding you back from a sport that you're passionate about. Like I don't even know how I could live with that.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I've become far less of a Like Baseball was my sport growing up, Like I played and I watched like crazy, especially in the late nineties with with you know, during the steroid era, it was just so much fun. I mean, I know, I know why it was as fun as it was, but it was still just so much fun, you know, during that era. But like I look at baseball now and it's just very, very difficult for me to just get excited about it because my team I grew up going to Pirate Gate three River Stadium and then into PNC Park and going to Pyro games all the time. And I've only had in my lifetime, like I'm thirty seven, in my lifetime, my my, my, you know not you know, I was four years old whenever they went to like the NLCS and stuff in the early nineties. But in my lifetime, they've had like two or three good seasons. And that's it's it's mind boggling to think about in a thirty year plus timeframe, there's been. It was the it was the you know, twenty twelve range or what have you when when McCutchen was there and they were able to beat the Reds in the wildcard game and stuff like that. But like it's depressing. It's very very depressing.

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Speaker 3: You can ruin the sport for you, Like I said, yeah, it makes baseball and I feel like, why I'm gonna watch the same thing as much as that as passionate I am about like the Guardians, you know, like I got Guardians tattoos, Indian tattoos on me. It's like they're really bad. Baseball is a hard sport to watch. It is exactly bad, right, Like it just really is like what am I doing? Like you're literally just wasting your time? Good or competitive, but yeah, bad sports.

00:07:28
Speaker 1: It's and at least in football, you know, teams turn it around and if you get a franchise quarterback, then all of a sudden you have hope and stuff like you just it's the pirates are you? You have argub the best, the best young pitcher in baseball right now, and you know he's not gonna be on the team and an x amount of time, you know, it's just the reality.

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Speaker 3: And that it makes it just a sad, like, dude, I got one of the best pictures to come out. Like there's like young pitching has not been good in baseball for a while, right, Like you go back to like Steven Strasburg for the Nationals and like the he blew his armor and all these young guys blow their arms out, and then you finally get one that's like a superstar and you're a singer going, yeah, he's leaving first time, Like he's out of here.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be He's gonna be gone. It's just it's really really tough. All right. So we've we've touched on a little bit of your your background of who you are being a Cleveland guy, but there's obviously a lot more to it. I like to start these perspectives episodes with just sort of a rundown of the guests background within the fantasy space. So let us know how this all started, why you got into it, and why you you're doing the Dynasty Nerds thing.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so yeah, I mean it started with my passion of just sports and football in general. And you know, like you mentioned being a Browns fan, Like we've been terrible since nineteen ninety nine, like it's been abysmal. Nobody's had it worse than Browns fan. If you go to my x account, you go see my Browns rant that's pinned to my top. If you want to get a grasp of Cleveland misery, I do eleven minute rant on it. But you know that being said, like, I got really into the NFL Draft because that was like our super Bowl, right, Like we always had a top ten pick. So like I was studying like these rookies, like not a like fantasy football defensive I wanted to know like how the Browns were gonna get better and who they won the draft. Like, so I'm sitting there and I'm knowing all these prospects going off the board. I was really into fantasy football. So right around two thousand and three, like I discovered like, hey, there's a way to play. I heard it's called this game of dynasty where you can draft like teams keep them forever. And I was I was doing pretty good at fantasy at the time, and then like I was sewing the rookies, Like if you studied rookies, you'd keep those forever too. So I was like, oh, jud I'm gonna started a Dynasty league, had no idea what it was about or anything. Literally made up the rules with my friends as we went along. Really cool. They kind of like transpired into like how people do play Dynasty as well, Like we used to call the taxi squad our practice squad, you know, trying to run it that way through NFL. I want to really start. Like I ended up writing some fantasy articles for a website probably back in like two thousand and ten because I was just really passionate about the game of fantasy, and I kept trying to ad a buddy who made websites, and I was just kept trying to Like I was like, hey, dude, we should create a Dynasty website. There's like no information out there, there's no no, no good websites. And this is like pre DLF even who were first in scott Fish with Fantasy Oasis. And I was like, you know, and finally one day came out of my house and he's like, dude, he's like, this is twenty thirteen, and he's like, all right, I'll create you a website. He's like, I have one rule and what I guess for one thing you have to do, He's like, you got to create a podcast. So and I'm like, what's a podcast here? Right? Yeah? So on the internet. I'm like, all right, dude, that's what it takes. That's what it's going to take. So yeah, I started Dynasty Nerds in late twenty thirteen, started a podcast, and the podcast started to take off pretty quickly, pretty like we had nothing to compare it to. We didn't know how well it was doing because we just know, like, we didn't know what numbers were good. It wasn't until I got a job with the ESPN Cleveland and there I was like, hey, our our our podcast does these numbers? Is that good? Right too? That's really good? Yeah? Yeah, probably start advertising that because we don't even advertised. We just did our show, right yeah. And just started from there. Man, really getting into kind of like same purpose I have today. Right. The whole reason I want to start Dyna Centers from the first place is I wanted to grow the game of Dynasty, right, like I want to talk about it. Me and my friends always talked about it. I just want people, hey, you got to try this game out, because if you like Fantasy, you're gonna love Dynasty. So my mission statement from the get go is, you know, like just to innovate the game, like to get it in people's eyes. And you know now that we have the resources and the views and the money to do so, Like, it's great to be able to build the tools that I envision that would really help Dynasty players take their game to another level. So yeah, man, just been in the Dynasty game for a very long time and just really want to grow the game and help the users be better players overall.

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Speaker 1: So when you went out and started the podcast, what like, are you like me? Where you if you were to listen to one of your first episodes, you're just like, I physically like GE's sick listening to how Bad, not just the advice, but just like the presence and like doing all of it. I would imagine though, like I started this show, I started living the stream. My other podcasts are probably around the same time, but this show I started, I mean, Perspectives I started like two years ago, but this show, the lay Round podcast in twenty seventeen. Even listening back to the twenty seventeen stuff, I'm like, no, this is this is horrific. But I would imagine though doing it that long ago, you would have just had no clue as to like what the right cadence is on a show in general, like forget the I mean, to be fair, even podcasts today, there's not that much transparency of like who's doing really well and who's not, and like what the numbers are and stuff like that. It's just like part of what the podcasting world is. But I could I can't. I just can't even fathom what it would be like back then doing a show that no one else is really doing. I mean, was it just I'm assuming it was just incredibly difficult.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it was so was eleven years ago. So it's kind of like I would love to hear that back I think like five years ago. And I was like, oh my gosh, yeah, you're right. At the same time as like most people like I don't like hear my voice, Like my voice is terrible obviously, I you know, I sometimes to speak with a lisp, but I don't like see myself, you know, Like I was on TV for a little while and I was like, dude, people like, oh, I don't ever watch it, zero eat it. I hate it. I hate it. So yeah, going back then, I'm sure I think I remember hearing it like sometime back, going, yeah, that was abysmal. The sound quality was really good, because that's something like when we started listening to like when I figured out I had to do a podcast, I started listening to their podcasts.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, who listen to this?

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Speaker 3: Like this, this sounds like you're talking through a water jug and your mom's so like the Onember. One thing we did, like and what we try to always do is like we're gonna do it, let's do it right right, Like we did put a lot of research, like in time and testing into equipment to make sure our at least are like, yeah, what we were saying and how like our cadence are going about that wasn't perfect, but like we wanted to make sure the sound was professional across well because and honestly, that could have been one of the reasons why our podcast probably took off and did well. It's like, hey, this is something I can actually listen to like now, it's like it's like just everybody expects it right because it's a new thing. Like your picture camera is like four K high quality, your microphone is great a it's like and you everybody can do that off like Amazon now and back then amazon't even exist, right right, right, Yeah, man, it is. It's hard to like look back in some of those years and watch the growing process and see how like raw you were in it. But you know, with that rawness also came what I would appreciate too. I think probably for you and most people, it's like those early stages is like the passion is so strong, right, yeah, look what I'm doing, Like I'm talking about I'm finally doing this. Like there's a lot of stuff and going into like putting out a podcast and stuff, and that passion inside of you is like what's going to drive you to where you need to go if you can, you can maintain that. But like I would like to go back to here, like yeah, the terribleness of us trying to run a show, but like I would love to hear my takes and see how like I felt back then eleven years ago as well. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: My thing too is that like if you're not looking back at old takes and old things that you you did and you know how you performed on a podcast, if you're not looking back and saying like, yeah, that was terrible, then you're not improving, right, Like you're not getting any better. I remember the first ever show I did, and some people still to this day remember this. This is back in twenty twelve, I want to say, and it was a really really small podcast. But I had never gone on a show before. And I'm not like a big drinker or you know, even like I'm not one who would like, you know, take the edge off with a beer or whatever. But I remember before when on the show, I slammed two beers. I went into this giant closet that I because I was so nervous. I was just so anxious. And you know, you look back at that though, and like the more reps you get, you know, the more comfortable you get, and that's just all a natural progression. But the audio thing, I think is really important too, because to me, that's one of the main reasons like the fantasy footballers did what they did with like their audio is just out of control because they all have that kind of background, like they actually understand, you know, what goes into that and why it matters, and they could optimize for it. And that's one of the reasons of many you know, they're they're all very good at branding and all that as well, and they have great content. But that's one of the reasons why they were able to stand out I think too, is because around you know what, I think they started maybe twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, but like.

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Speaker 3: They started, yeah, they start the same time we did. Because I love getting the comments going because we've had the same intro for eleven years and people like, yeah, oh yeah, dude, we had to steal the Footballers intro. I'm like, dude, we've had the same intro since twenty fourteen. We started right around the same time. Like I think we started a little bit before the Footballers. Like there's if anything they stole from us, right, that's why, Like that means like that does it carries weight? It really does. Like all those intangibles mean something, right, like sending you have a really strong camera and mike and really good voice, but if your takes are terrible, nobody's gonna listen. Rightly, you get really strong takes, but like if you're like mundane and boring and like your audio is bad, people aren't gonna listen. Cause there's so there's definitely nowadays, right ja, there's a million options yeah for you to go ahead and find information on one.

00:16:55
Speaker 1: Hundred percent one hundred percent. So obviously you've been focused on Dynasty a lot. What's your mix in terms of Dynasty and Redraft, like whether you're talking in your analysis or just the leagues that you play in, are you I mean, I know you're probably heavier Dynasty, but what does that look like on a year to year basis?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this nowadays, it's just it's predominantly just Dynasty, it really is. I have my couple Redraft leagues that have been playing in for like thirty years. I have those that I still play in. Uh, but now I think I think over like the last five years, it's pretty much strictly Dynasty. I was doing Redraft stuff, you know, like being you know, the popular of the show and stuff like opened a lot of doors for me for like opportunity that I got a job with like ESPN Cleveland for a couple of years. I have my own show radio show on Sundays, but Redraft, right I was on there's a local TV show that's real popular on the same network that the Indians play on in was it able to do that on TV for a couple of years as well? Again, strictly Redraft I had opportunity to right for magazines over the years early on against strictly redrafts. So I use those as opportunity like to promote myself to find again then push you towards Dynasty. But now over the last I think, yeah, five years, man, it's just really just Dynasty.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So then with you being in the Dynasty game for so long, not to not to say that you're an old man at this point, but you know, being in the Dynasty game as long as you've been, what do you think is one thing that you wish every Dynasty manager sort of knew or thought about to take their game to the next level.

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Speaker 3: Ah. Man, there's so many things there, really is. There's so many things I feel like, you know, like I like, if you've seen me at the expo every year and I listen to my podcast, I pound the fact of, like what I think the importance of of having one of those elite tight ends, you know, like to get like the tradement brides of brock Bauers is something I always try to focus on, h if I can, because definitely in Dynasty, where like over years, teams like you know, you have the bottom teams, the top teams like that, that's a one small position that can give you an Nobody else can have that, right because there's only a couple of those guys anyway, So like we did our show, you know, over the last thirty years, there's only been twenty two tight ends over the last thirty years that've.

00:19:03
Speaker 1: Had two at least two top six.

00:19:07
Speaker 3: Finishes in Fantasy football. Twenty two in almost thirty years. Right, So that's one of the things I talk about. But I think the biggest thing that people lose sight him dynasty that I would I would kind of hammer on is like when you find yourself in the window of opportunity to win, to go all in and try to win, you know, I think people in Dynasty, Lou, it's easy to lose focus and not go all in because people don't want to trade their draft picks. Like if you follow me, like you know in the industry, like I'm a big Like if you're a contender, you shouldn't even have your draft picks, Like you should be training those for guys that are going to help you win. Now, older guys that have two to three years, like, oh, I don't want to give up my first for him he's only got like two years left. Oh, you mean twenty four months to fantasy football seasons where you go win back to back championships and be a legend in your league two years knowing the fact that you know, we've done historical studies. If you are off team and you pick either nine, ten, eleven, or twelve, you're in those bottom four teams. So your top your top four finisher in your league, your first round pick historically has a fifty to fifty chance to be rosterble JJ not not like startable rosterble. So like, I think too many people like focus on being paper pretty. I'm like, dude, my team in a couple of years is gonna be unbeatable. Like I've been playing this game for twenty two years. I've heard that a million times. It's come to fruition. I think almost zero percent of the time where those teams are unstoppable. So I think too many managers don't focus on going for the championship, Like why do we play the game we played a win right? We want to win titles. I say it all the time, Like nobody cares about how many times you came in second place in my original dynasty league that's twent two years old. I've come and I've won it three times, and I've come in second place, I think six or seven times. It's a lot like it hurts. It still hurts this day. It's only like I really want to win. But I'm not gonna stand and tell my grandkids, like Grandpa, why you're in your dynasty? Nerds like why is your name on the trophy this many times? Well, you know, grandson, I came in second place. Twell, I don't care about that. So I think when you have an opportunity, because those windows are small. Yeah, let alone in redraft, but definitely in dynasty, where there's so many things change on a constant basis that could set you back. If you find yourself in a position to win, whether it be by surprise or you set yourself up there, try to make sure that you give yourself as best the best odds possible, even if your dynasty lineup looks fantastic, like trade away those seconds for old depth just to have death put yourself in the best position to go all in. I say, what's an under overpay today could be an underpay tomorrow. And sometimes it's on rookie prospects. But sometimes it can be on older players as well, because they got you where you needed to be, which is the top, right, Like would you rather have a fifty to fifty gamble on some rookie? Would you rather have the championship in your league? Right? Like for one player undercent the championship? And I think too many players these days, not these days, not too many, but a lot of people they don't. They're like, oh, dude, I can't give my first that's an overpay, like says who? Right?

00:22:09
Speaker 1: Who said?

00:22:10
Speaker 3: Who says? X says your league mate's an overpay? Like you know, like you have to be willing to overpay to win, you know, like you have like he's just giving stuff away, so you have to feel like slightly overpaid. Is he worth the first? Maybe? Maybe not? But will you help me win? And that is that the cost to win in then so be it?

00:22:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that. I mean, look, you said these days. I think it is more of these days though, Like I I do think that there has been a shift in the way that and I'm I'm guilty of this too, Like this is probably my biggest flaw, if you will, as a dynasty manager. Is I play scared when I have to go in very very strong at accumulating value, right. But then there's the production side. You need to get production eventually, right, like you need to actually produce. And I think though that like the way that analysts speak and and the way that the conversation flows within the dynasty space. You know, maybe it's the notion of you know, productive struggle and that idea of you know, during startups and like get and how that can set you up so so well, you know, for later seasons. But whatever it may be, I do think that there is a problem right now in the space, and again I'm guilty of it, where people are are too afraid, they're too afraid to get rid of some of these these assets and these pieces that are deemed valuable by things like trade calculators. And that's another thing that I want to ask you about because I get this question all the time, and I have a take on it, but I'm way more curious to hear your take on it, because you know, you've been in the game so long. But what are your general thoughts on trade calculators? They're everywhere now, you know, most sites have them. A lot of sites have them. Do you do you see the pros or are you more seeing the cons and you just kind of avoid them?

00:23:51
Speaker 3: All right? So I got two things the basis that basically say about trade calculators. One is I think they're they're a great tool for introduction like dynasty players, right, Like it's hard to grasp value and it's so like if you're new to the game, you don't understand the value of like oh, like this old player versus rookie that you don't know, but he's got a high upside, like a Mecha Buka who doesn't say, like week nine, he hasn't done anything yet, right, And then somebody's offering you Mike Evans, You're like, oh, Mike Evans for a Mecca Bukah fair because you don't know, right, Like, So I think trade calculators are a great baseline for like new players, like to help them kind of get their feet wet and understand like, hey, like this calculator says like I'm like it's way off right, Like I'm getting like bent over and this is not this is not fun. So I think they do serve a purpose for that role. What I don't like is when somebody sends me a screenshot of like, oh, this trade gugger says it's fair. It's like, listen, dude, what's the value is? What? Like San Dung. If somebody knocks in your home and they're like, hey, I want to buy your home, you set the price. Right. They don't tell you, hey, I want to buy your home for one hundred thousand dollars or five hundred thousand dollars. You set the price. It's your home. If you have that player, it's what's value to you, right, I say it all the time, like every league is its own ecosystem. Yes, And you'll see a player get traded in one league that would never happen in another league ever in a million years. And because every team structures differently, everybody's personality is different, how they value players compared to draft picks is different. So like it's hard to use a calculator for that reason. That being said, that is why at Dynasty Nerds we created our trade calculator in our app, which is a Dynasty Gem is you could input your own rank set into the app. Right, so you get the app run off of Dynasty Nerds. You could run. You can take jj Zacher Reeson's ranking to put him in there, and the whole app will run off of like yours or JJ's or anybody else you see, the footballer or anybody want to see. And then now if you want to run through the calculator, that will tell you if it's fair in your eyes right, or this person's eyes. So we create a calculator where because everybody says like, oh that case that doesn't that website doesn't know what they're talking about, there's a volume too low. Okay, We'll put your own values in there. Run off of that, and then I think sometimes it's good to have where like if you have it that way, you can check yourself like exactly do I really think.

00:26:14
Speaker 1: This is fair?

00:26:14
Speaker 3: And then you run it through your own calculator like, oh wow, this is pretty fair in min like I'm getting a better end of a deal because it's on my view of that player of value. And that's how you have to really kind of view it, like from your your your eyes right, your value, Like if you feel like you're overpaying, then you're overpaying. Like it's that it doesn't matter what Dynasty Nerd says or Dynasty Trade Calculator or any other calculator out there. It really comes down to you and the other owner and negotiate it, and that's where their value is going to come into effect. What is your thoughts on them?

00:26:42
Speaker 1: So so, no, I agree with what you're saying almost completely, or I do agree with what you're saying completely. The only thing I would add is I often will use especially like a keep trade cut, because we know that a lot of people are going to rely on something like that. I'll use that for trade crafting oftentimes where I know that someone might be viewing that and I don't want to say i'd game it, but I'd game it, you know, Like I know that there are instances where if you overweigh one side with just a bunch of assets, but a bunch of those assets you know aren't gonna be league winning assets, but that will accumulate to a score, and they try to adjust for that, don't get me wrong, but that will accumulate into a store into a score that would then be equivalent to some league winner. And then if you especially if you know that it's like a shallower league or like a you know, a ten teamer with not many guys starting in your lineup, and you know that that one singular player is going to make a bigger impact, then I'll use that to my advantage more from a game theory perspective, But I do agree with you completely about you know, especially for newcomers to the game. Like I started a Dynasty league with buddies maybe like six years ago. We called it. We call it Dynasty Virgins. That's the name of the league because no one in the league other than myself had played Dynasty before. And you know, I think that trade calculators in that environment are really helpful. They're really impactful because no one's played before, they have no idea how to value these guys. And you know, it's you also want in leagues like that. You ideally want an environment where people aren't doing like massively crazy things to really make things lopsided for one team, et cetera, et cetera. And I look, I'm not saying you veto trades or anything. I'm very very anti veto. I'm just saying that you want to give people the tools to be able to make the most rational decisions possible. But you know, as as an additive, like do you use trade calculators to your advantage like that like like going to like a keep trade cut or something just to see what it's saying and then see if you can you can game it a little bit, knowing that someone in your league might be using that tool.

00:28:40
Speaker 3: I never used keep trade cut. If I'm being honest, I don't. I don't look at it. I know we I know we look at it from a website perspective, like kind of like they use that as one of the tools to kind of like see how the pulse is on the community. I'm a big ADP guy when I when I do stuff like that, I'll look at ADP. That's my tool for like, oh, like I'll flip that side and that's a narrative I fall to kind of find that leverage. But like, and you're right, you can craft trades and make it look fair by add who here's three third round picks. Now the calculatory says it's fair, like throwing these two turns that nobody wants, like go ahead and fluss them. So no, I don't I use ADP compared to that. That's the tool that I use because like you know, at dinosaurs, like we run constant like mock drafts, like like we run multiple a week, So we have like instant live ADP essentially, so like I like to use that to help craft trades, right, like, because I really feel like Dynasty is a game of like I think in the most simplest form, I described Dynasty as a very simple game of who to buy, who to sell, who to draft? Right, So the draft part is like a certain time of the year, outside that the whole year, all year long, it's who to buy who to sell it And it's a game of windows, right, and game of opportunities. And it could be the littlest news, the littlest sign in that changes those windows, right, and like the best dine Sanders are gonna buy and sell in those right windows. And ADP kind of gives you a good bird's eye glimpse into that what the pulse is on the people and what they're thinking. And I use that kind of uh craft trades. But wow, this guy jumped that much Like, Okay, do that in there, putting the trade calculator. See how it looks in there too, Like I do use calculators. I don't send screenshots to people of that kind.

00:30:23
Speaker 1: Of Yeah, don't yeah, don't be no one listening. Don't be that guy.

00:30:25
Speaker 3: Don't be that guy, but I'll do it more like, Okay, I'm gonna offer this. I'm gonna offer this trade like like what I sathing I saw on X, Like same thing. I use X as a cage. I see everybodys talking about an X, like oh, this guy's hot on X, like I'm not a believer, like I get an under Okay, let me put us in a calculator and see if it's like, am I being ridiculous with this offer? Right? Sometimes I use it like okay, this is I'm not insulting like.

00:30:48
Speaker 1: A gut check.

00:30:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, cut check exactly, because like, yeah, I do. I send insultant offers at times that kind of gauge the interest and some people like no, dude, absolutely not. And unfortunately, like I play in the league that's like I'm in thirty dynasty leagues. I think twenty of them are like Nerd hurd leagues, which are like our diceon Nerd stands, like they know exactly what I'm thinking it all times, so it's hard for me to get a slip one by them.

00:31:09
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, that's interesting. I think people like that discussion because it's it's a question that that gets thrown my way often, you know, how I'm using them or or if they should be using them, And I think at least they get some nuance with that with that kind of answer. All right, So rookie drafts are happening right now, ADP. It's a little bit more concrete, a lot more concrete than it was, you know, immediately after the draft when a lot of these rookie drafts start. What's been the biggest surprise to you about drafts this year? Whether this is a an overarching thing, you know, a bird's eye thing, or whether this is a very player specific thing.

00:31:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, right now. Like I do feel like it's a weird class twenty twenty five because once you get past like pick number eight, like there's such a broad pool of players that like all those players going out pool, but it's like an eight person pool and it's kind of like beauty of eye of the beholder. So I got't see anything crazy there. Like, you know, Travis Hunter has been a guy you can go from anywhere from one to two to one seven. That's been a mix in there. That's all pretty consistent. I think one thing, I always think it's kind of weird and I see it again this year is like like Jackson Dart for example, Like Jackson Dart's going like anywhere from one ten to like two to one, and that's in super flex. And I kind of said this as well, like, like how many opportunities do you have in super flex leagues when you're a contender, like a legit contender like pick nine, ten, eleven, twelve, and you have an opportunity to get a first round drafted quarterback? Yeah, yeah, Like that doesn't present itself very often for you, Like it's weird that people still will let that slide by for like a tight end And listen. I like Colston Loveland's tape. I like Tyler Warren's tape too. There's still tight ends. I just told you earlier, Like in the last thirty years has been twenty two tight ends. I have had more than at least two top six finishes, right, Yeah, we use top six as a finish because anywhere tight end from seven to fifteen, they're the same guy.

00:32:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's replaceable.

00:32:59
Speaker 3: Right, So, Like, and I stay in the podcast all the time. People don't realize like when you make a trade, like and I'm using this from a super Flex standpoint, right, most of my leagues are super flex tight in premium. So if you're in one QB, obviously this doesn't mean anything.

00:33:12
Speaker 1: Have you found that more leagues are super flex these days then? Especially startups? I would imagine, but that's been a shift to we didn't really talk about. I'm sorry for interrupting, but like it's got to be, like, what do you think the split is with super flex to one?

00:33:24
Speaker 3: Now? All my leagues are super flex?

00:33:28
Speaker 1: I mean, I know that's what I'm saying. Like, I don't even think I'm in it. I don't even think I'm in a sty I think I might be in one single quarterback dynasty league at this point.

00:33:35
Speaker 3: I'm gonna cut. I'm still my twenty two year old league is still that one q Yeah.

00:33:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's got to be the existing ones. I think all the new ones though, are basically just all super.

00:33:42
Speaker 3: Flen I think so too, and which is rightfully so, because like if you want to have like in dynasty, otherwise like quarterbacks become so invaluable, right or right? Yeah, like why why trade for one? You can literally draft a really good one in the second round or probably third round. So right, Sorry, I didn't mean, I didn't mean to get to your right though. Like most leagues, like that's kind of the grown one of the game altogether. Though, Like the same thing with Tightian premium, you want to have like every player hold value right like otherwise, Like and what it does is, like you're speaking of rookiy drafts, it makes your rookie draft so much more fun, right because then like Cam Wore, like you're like, oh, dude, like, because it is, what's the most shiny toy in rookie draft. It's a running back right like it's it's it's a one player you could probably plug in play and get instant success out of right away. It's why I always believe it should be the most fluid position on your dynasty roster, because's one position you could draft and then plug and play and have a lot of success with. So like doing that by making tight end premium, making super flex, like it makes your whole dynasty like league literally a hundred times more fun because like the player values in the trades are so drastic. So the one thing about that is like the Jackson Dart thing is like you don't have a lot of opportunities to get those guys even with like cam Ward, Like you're sitting there like, dude a Mario and Hampton like, oh, that's a running back. But like cam Wore was just a number one overall pick in the NFL draft. Those guys, for the most part, have a lot of success in the NFL from a fantasy football respect him outside of a couple guys like you know, uh the dude, oh my god, uh for the Raiders. He forgot his name already, h Roger Marcus Russell, Marcus Russell. Yeah. Yeah. The most part though, those guys are successful. And when I try to tell people is like, yeah, I don't know, I don't want this guy. He's he's a quarterback. He's quarterback eighteen. He's a quarterback too. Well, I try to salle time you know a quarterback too. Quarterback eighteen is a top sixty overall fantasy scorer overall. That's a league winner. Right, So like if I draged you, like, oh, I don't know if I want Jackson Dard will probably just be like Quarterbacks eighteen. He's twenty one years old, Like, yeah, bro, that helds a lot of h right, that's a lot of value. So seeing guys like him slip are a little surprising.

00:35:43
Speaker 1: I think R. J.

00:35:44
Speaker 3: Harvey slip into the second round to me is a little crazy. Uh again for that instant value. And we live in a world where like, what have you done for me lately? What have you done for relate? Like if you don't produce as a rookie people like, But one of my favorite things in Dynasty is players I loved in like the pre ist year's draft class that didn't do much, especially tight end, like trade for those players to fall in here for that new shiny toy. Like Okay, I can have a little patience, right, Like, not everybody is molik neighbors. Now everybody is gonna hit the ground running and be this star like these lad mcconkeys. So for the most part, it's a weird. It's a weird question to ask, because like, beauty is in the eye to beholder in this draft class, like you might like the tight end, you might like to quarterback, you might love, uh Luther Burden over Matthew Golden where like you know, I'd rather just take Jayden Higgins, right person. That that's just me, Like I like Cam Skataboo, you know, like are I'd rather take the shiny running back like a Caleb Johnson. So it's really hard to answer. It's been pretty chalky I think this year because like, yeah, you have you have Ashton Genty at one, then you have from cam Ward to like uh Trevian Henderson, that group quin John Jenkins is consistently that like in his own tier at like eight, and then it gets real wild for those guys from Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, Matthew Golden, r J. Harvey Jackson, Dart. Like it's been a real hodgepodge there, I think. I think one thing that's kind of surprising is the value people are passing up at tight end. We saw a lot of tight ends go in the second round of this raft.

00:37:12
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, I agree with this. Yeah because to me, like like an example of this, like like my model really like Terrence Ferguson, right, So like the fact that there's this massive gap in adp and choose your own adventure with the tight end. I'm just using Ferguson as the example.

00:37:30
Speaker 3: You really do is a great example, yeah, right.

00:37:32
Speaker 1: Just like unbelievably athletic tight end, pretty good production profile. Uh you know, a guy fits in a in an offense that he you know, maybe it'll take some time, but that's what we get with all tight ends anyway, and so uh, you know, you and maybe he surprises too and just gets work quicker than we than we expect. But to me, the gap between and look, those you know, Tyler Warren and Colson Loveland are both very very very very good prospects. But I just don't, you know, I don't see why the gap in ADP exists between them to some of these other tight ends. And again, it could be one of these other tight ends that whoever you end up liking.

00:38:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, he's a perfect example.

00:38:08
Speaker 1: I think he was.

00:38:09
Speaker 3: He the third tight end off the board, Terrence Ferguson.

00:38:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think he was too. I might I might have to look that up right now. It's him, Arroyo, Mason Taylor.

00:38:20
Speaker 3: Mason Taylor. Mason Taylor was the third off the board to the Jets. Then was Terrence Ferguson, and then Arroyo and then Harrold Fannon went really high, uh in the third who only led college football receptions and yardage last year, which is pretty crazy, right, Like, you know, Terrence fergus is such a great a big athletic tight end, right, And like I don't like I love Colston Lovelin, I don't necessarily love his landing spot like I like Tyler Warren a lot. I don't know if I love his landing spot. I love Terrence Ferguson's land spot. He's seen Sean mcvayh he's tried to implement the tight end into his offense over like since he's been a head coach, whether it be Tyler Higbee, they try to use Kolbe Parking.

00:38:58
Speaker 1: Like Keryld Everett. Yeah.

00:39:00
Speaker 3: Ever, like Sean, if you if you obviously Rams fans probably know this, but if you washed the game Sean McVeigh, you could tell he's tried to find that like tight end that like utilize in his offense in such an innovative mind. Like, and I'm a big like I think land and spot scheme coaching matters a ton like that, like my Dynasty rankings a ton. We have like the nerd Score, which is what we based off of just film only, right, and we've had a lot of success with that, Like we've outproduced NFL Draft Capital with that. Yeah, and we've just created this year, like you know, like we got to implement like post draft like land and spot draft capital. So we call that NERD score plus. But like a guy like Terrence Ferguson who gets really good draft capital on a team that doesn't have a ton of draft capital and a really good offense with a really good offensive mine with you know, an older receiver on the outside in Devonte Adams, you're getting him in the third round right right, And like we said, there's only a couple tight ends that you that are out there there legit, Like why aren't you swinging the bat for a guy like that? Just like if you're gonna gamble, right, Like a third round pick has a seven percent chance to be a hit, which is meaning to put up either a tight end like a like a top fantasy finish, Like you're you're on the board. You're like you enter the actual statistical category of being like a wide receiver to someone like seven percent chance, Like why wouldn't you instead of taking like a receiver take it in a fifth round which is almost like a one percent chance of could being I think over the last twenty years there's been like five guys that have hit in that category, Like why wouldn't you take a shallow position value with high draft capital. People are so like, I'll just pass on the tight end and that's where like I draft a lot of those guys. So like, I am a little shocked to see a Royal, Terrence Ferguson, even Harold Fannin and Mason Taylor. Mason Taylor's going on the board a little bit higher, definitely a tight end premium, but even he's going like back in sec second. But you can get Terrence Ferguson Elijah Royal in the third round of your rookie draft. Right you're out there drafting like fifth round receivers ahead of them, You're like, like, what great value that is?

00:41:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, And not only that, but I think that a lot of these tight ends this year, you know a lot of them don't project well. You know obviously, like Tyler Warren and Colson Loveland. They you know, Tyler Warren's in a really crappy spot for twenty twenty five and then Colson Loveland, you know, like you said, a lot of mouths defeat in that offense, and they still have Cole Comet, who knows how that split's gonna look. But if you look at some of the other tight ends. You know, Mason Taylor is probably gonna be the starter right away. Terrence Ferguson might not do anything this year, but there's still at least an out for that, even Harold Fannon, Man, I mean, you're you're Cleveland Brown's. Like, I see a scenario. You look at their slot receiver right now, what is it Jamari Thrash essentially like they so Stefanski's a twelve personnel guy. I would imagine that they picked Hannon or Fannin from the perspective of they want to run a little bit more twelve and they want a little bit more versatility out of that set, and all of a sudden, Fannin could even be more relevant even in twenty twenty five than what people are realizing. And so I think that is a really interesting takeaway though, is that like the tight end gap, Like I I've noticed, and maybe I haven't thought about it like deeply enough, but like I didn't draft a ton of Loveland and Warren in my rookie drafts this this season, and I think the reason why is because I was getting a lot of these other guys and like the third round as opposed to spending that first round er you know on those two.

00:42:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, me too. I'm in, like I said, thirty leagues, i have zero Loveland zero Warren shares, Yeah zero because again, like the value wasn't there because I'm always searching for value, and to me, I knew, like you said, I can get that value later. Like I got a Harold fan in at like three four three five, where like we saw, like he said, Sefanski likes to utilize the tight end a ton. David Joku's in the last year of his contract. We don't know if you resigned him. David Joku, who over the last couple of years has average over thirteen points per game at the tight end position, which puts him in that elite category as it is, So yeah, man, like it's it's like fine in value, and I think that's I think it's a one shot. Like talking to you about it now, I think, like, wow, that value there at tight end is so good in rookie drafts right now, we just let it slip by and through their fingers.

00:43:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know. Terrence Ferguson was one of one of the dudes that my model really liked, and I ranked them higher than the market. And I know a lot of of you know, listeners and consumers were drafting a lot of them. I it's interesting though, Like I do my rankings immediately at the end of the draft, right, so I can get my guide out and everyone just has them and they're ready to go. So I'm not influenced at all by ADP, which is kind of frightening in a way, right, because you obviously want to think about value and such whenever you're drafting these guys. But Ferguson was just one of those dudes that really popped, you know, on my end, and I was I ended up being. I mean, I think I'm like ten spots higher than ADP with him right.

00:43:32
Speaker 3: Now, Dude, I love that, and see I am, I am, I am, I do that as for a living like I am with people like dude, I don't listen to other Dynasty podcasts. I don't like and I don't care like we always promote like on nine starts, like we go left when other people go right, Like I don't care where ADP is or something like that, Like I'm not here to like go with like the herd, like I'm here to give you my opinion, right, Like why are you listening to me because you want to hear my opinion on something, So like if you're all in on Ferguson, then right, and like sometimes it can be wrong, right, Like I was pounding table and take cly Word's layer one to one after his draft capitallh blah blah blah. Like also, I was the one that said Devon A. Chen was one of the best running back prospects I saw for fantasy, and like I would take him like fourth overall. I was the one last year saying like again where everybody else wasn't going that way, that I was a dude. Lad McConkey is such a good route runner. He gets open, he's going like he's gonna be a PPR machine, and like I would take him as like my fourth receiver overall. I would take him probably fifth, sixth range summer in that range overall. Any An he capitalizes, so like I'm with you, like I'm not overly concerned about like ADP, Like I'm concerned about like what my eyes tell me and what I have acusion for success, And.

00:44:42
Speaker 1: I think it matters more from a rookie draft perspective to have that attitude, right, you know, like In a startup, you're obviously trying to extract ADP, and there's more instances where you're going to be able to do that, right, So it's a little bit easier to match ADP and kind of look at where things are at to say, oh, okay, I can wait another round to get this guy, and I'm just trying to extract value. You're not really able to do that in rookie drafts because number one, they're gonna be a little bit more unpredictable because the player pool is just not as big, it's not as vast. And so if you get a dude in your league or a woman in your league who wants to draft RJ. Harvey, you know, one oh five, and you were waiting on RJ. Harvey, or you pass on him because you had two picks in the first round or what have you, then that's just the way that it goes in rookie drafts. You don't see that as frequently, you know, in startups necessarily. But yeah, sorry, did you did you want to add to that?

00:45:26
Speaker 3: Oh? No, yeah, and I agree too. Like the NFL draft, you know a lot of people will pivot off the NFL draft not realizing these teams are drafting players that fit their schemes, like the tape Like I'm a big tape guy, right, that's my Like that's all I've kind of like made my name in the business, Like just watching tape, Like what do my eyes tell me? Like I'm not smarter than anybody else. It's just like I just watched it and get my opinion. Like I don't know how you guys don't see what I see kind of thing, you know what I mean. So, like I think some people like lose focus on like NFL teams don't care about fantasy, Like they want a guy like they and listen, NFL gms love speed, they love so they're gonna draft the guy just because he could take the top off a defense, right, Like he's he's gonna fit their scheme. Well, it's kind of like somebody like, Wow, I can't believe quinn Shawn Jenkins went ahead Trevian Henderson the NFL draft. Well, Quinchon Jenkins fits Kevin Stefanasy's scheme better than Trevian Henderson doesn't. It doesn't mean he'll be a better running back necessarily, just he fits that scheme better. And sometimes people let players like that, Like when you see like a John Ross go top ten to the Bengals and people are like, oh, top ten anvile draft capital. Like meanwhile, the tape tells you this isn't a really good fantasy asset, right like this the Theorius Hayward based that John Ross's guys along those lines. So I think sometimes as well, ADP could pivot like real quickly if the NFL draft because of that, And it does matter for something like a guy like RJ. Harvey, Like it matters right for some people, but sometimes you could also have a negative effect as well on people's minds when they see a guy go like save On Williams goes in the third round. Yeah, see the Packers like, oh wow, third round draft capital, Like listen, bro, don't.

00:46:56
Speaker 1: Do it, don't.

00:46:59
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:46:59
Speaker 1: I mean there's an inverse correlation in the early rounds of drafts of wide receiver speed and then being basically wide receiver speed inflates that those players and they get they get overdrafted. I want to talk about some individual players in this rookie class that are a little bit more controversial. It sounds like you're in on RJ. Harvey that you're higher than the market, or you're getting a lot of RJ. Harvey. Why is that?

00:47:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, man, it's r J. Harvey is somebody. Like I thought his tape was just okay. I was really negative on him because he was a twenty four year old running back too. Like that. I was like, dude, he's twenty four years old. He catched a ball, Well, he's got really good speed, but dude, he's twenty four years old. And like it was such a strong running back class, it's like, Okay, RJ. Harvey kind of falls by the wayside. But I was really really intrigued by who Denver was going to take at running back and that meant a lot. Like that meant a lot to me, Like scheme and system matters. I've said over the years, like is Alvin Kamar the best running back in the NFL? No? No, But his scheme and the system that he played in made him like the best running back since Lashawn mccoyct.

00:48:02
Speaker 1: And what he brings to the table and matching with that, Yeah, and.

00:48:05
Speaker 3: That matters, right. So like when RJ. Harvey goes in the second round, then you hear other teams were like mad that the Broncos took him. Like that means a lot. I mean Denver, Sean Payne his running back magic he's doing over the years with guys like Darren Sprolls, Peter Thomas, Like he finds the juice in the running backs. And Harvey fits everything that Sean Payne wants and he's got no competition at all. Javonte Williams leaves Audrick Guestimi was he was. He didn't even suit up in a playoff game. And he's a one dimensional back too, every one dimension. The other guy's like five foot eight Julia McLaughlin right, So like r J. Harvey is to goat in that offense, which doesn't have a lot of weapons outside of Marvin Mims. And they just start to Pat Bryan the third round and they have Courtland Suns on the last year of the deal. He has a beast of all offensive line. They had like one of the best run blocking offensive lines and all of football out there in Denver. So like when I see draft cap talent and against system system and landing spot, that perks up my ears a ton. And like one of my co hosts, Garrett Price, he's like he's like, dude, but you didn't have. Like we know, historically, when you bump up players because of draft capital, it's usually doesn't work out well historically, And I get that. I was like, but one of the reasons I'm drafting r J. Harvey I want to take him high is yes, he's twenty four. I don't see a long term window there. But again, most running backs only live in this two to four year window for the most part. Everybody else is an outlier, and I think again too many people chase outliers in dynasty as well and then not realize in their outliers. For me, what I love about r J. Harvey is he's got a great landing spot right in Denver. If you were one in the fourth round of Denver, it'd have been a great landing spot right he gets the second round draft capital in Denver. What I love about r J. Harvey is what do you bring the table immediately to a contender, which is where're gonna get him in at like nine, ten, eleven, twelve range. But more importantly is what can r J. Harvey do for me after this year in season? The return that I'm gonna be able to get on r J. Harvey if he produces at a running back one level, which is what people are gonna salvate over a rookie running back who's giving you running back one numbers in this offense, Like you're gonna get goes back to west end with value, like the value on that return you're gonna get on r J. Harvey if you want to trade him after this year, Like kind of like a Bucky Irvin this year, Like look at Bucky Irvin? Did I think RJ. Harvey can outproduce Bucky Irvin's numbers last year? I think RJ. Harvey has a chance to finish as RB one this year. I think it's very strong because on touches and touches matter in football. Right, we saw a guy like right before Bijon got in Atlanta, Mike Davis, Right, yeah, this is the most jag of all running backs. He was running back twelve overall that year because he just got all the touches and all the catches. That's an r J.

00:50:47
Speaker 1: Harvey to the highest level possible.

00:50:50
Speaker 3: So like, now, only do you see a solid player that fits a scheme really well, who's gonna get a ton of touches. I'm gonna get him pick anywhere from one ten to two to two is where he's going. The return I'm gonna get on that is gonna be a first plus or a young receiver plus that's already proven.

00:51:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's really really key to the discussion because the way I've sort of analyzed this is that Sean Payton's backfields usually see insane target shairs. If you look back to twenty eleven, which is usually where I date my data back to, he's had no worse than his backfield ranking six than running back target share in a single season, which is absolutely wild, right, It's crazy. And so like that's thirteen years worth of data and he's always top six and running back target share, And so I think that we could sit here and like maybe say, you know, r J. Harvey's not Alvin Kamara in terms of his receiving skills coming out, but if you look at the backfield right now, it's Julia McLoughlin and Nodrick estimate.

00:51:42
Speaker 3: RJ.

00:51:42
Speaker 1: Harvey is the best pass catcher in space immediately, you know, in that backfield, so he's gonna see a lot of that work more than likely, and so you can see that path. Then in year one and so I think that if you then don't see, you know, unbelievably good pass catching skill or great pass catching skills from him in year one, like you're saying you have an opportunity to flip him after this year if need be right, or if he does show off and he does blow up, then you get to keep him and you get another few years of RJ. Harvey in a in a great Broncos offense. So that's been the piece for me as well with him, is that you know, you can say what you want about and look, there were some red flags for me analytically with him where you know he's older. And to be fair, though, I like to associate the journey of a player with that age, Like he started out as a quarterback, he got he tours ACL at one point, right, Like there's a reason, at least some reason as to why the late career production happened. You know, for guy like Harvey, when there isn't that reason, it's a lot more difficult to buy into that player.

00:52:41
Speaker 3: Right when people were like, well, dude, like JAD, like I was really after watching like Jayden Daniels tape for example, Like I was like dude, when I got down watch his tape. I was like, I'm in I'm in some Diynsta leagues where like if I had a won one, like I would really consider taking Jade and Daniels over Caleb Williams, Like I really would. And people like documents like well he was only he only got uh he was only in that one year of like being really good. I'm like, well, yeah, that's what that's okay, Like I expect players to get better, Like right, yeah, I supposed to get better, Like that's all people break out at some point, So you're right, like following that path of like why they got to that point is also it's crucial.

00:53:16
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, So like, look, his age is a is a thing. Like I'm not dismissing that. It's a thing in the model that I use and in the ZAP model, and it's a thing that you know, we want early we would ideally want early career production, you know in college. But you know, sometimes at least if there is that that reason, it's a little bit easier to buy into. One guy that I definitely want to talk about is a mecha Buka because you know, landing spot wise, I think it's been mixed in terms of the way that that folks have felt about him, How do you feel about him as a talent, and how do you feel about him as as a pick in rookie draft right now? Because of that landing spot.

00:53:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, two thumbs up on both categories here, uh one being a player like I feel like, you know, outside of Ashton Genty, there might not be a safer player in this draft of my eyes and a Mecca of Buka, right, Like, he's not that player that does anything like like top tier, like he's the best at but he does everything above average, Like he's a really good route runner, he's got really good hands, he really works the sideline really well, really smart football player. So when I see players like that, like that tells me success. Like that success right kind of like like a Davante Smith, you know, like a personally why he does everything really really well kind of like even like a kind of like a Chris Godwin even, you know, like, yeah, he was actually one of the.

00:54:28
Speaker 1: Comps and the analytical comps in my model was actually one of them. Was was Chris Condon. He's he's my comp form as well.

00:54:34
Speaker 3: And I think people fail to remember last year up until Chris Godwin got hurt the week before that, Chris Godwin was wide receiver one overall all the point it was Jim and Jamar Chase. Jamar Chase passed him, I think the week before he got hurt and what it was only like by a couple points at that point as well. So like people are like, oh, I don't love I don't love the land spot. Why don't you love? Mike Evans is thirty one years old hit he only has this year guaranteed on his deal. Chris Godwin is twenty nine years old. Baker Mayfield has elevated his game finally to another level. Mike Evans probably won't be on the team next year because they did draft the Mecca in the first and Baker has shown in this offense he could support a high end wide receiver that doesn't have those elite athletic traits like EU elite neighbors out there or a Jamar Chase. He still can produce at a high level kind of like ala like an Ahmad Rossaint Brown. Would you probably like hope that a Mecca Buca sealing would be so for me? I love the player because like this is a guy who can get open which means he can get targets. He has sure hands. So for me, I like that in a prospect where I come away I feel safe, right like I feel safe about Mecca Buka then a lot of these other receivers. He's my wide receiver three in my rookie rankings right now, and I absolutely love the landing spot man. He's got a secure quarterback, he's got a good offensive scheme. He has a clear path to be the number one guy here in the very near future as well, because I'm always looking for like clear paths, right Like same thing with like DeVante Smith. He gets drafted to get a J. Brown, Like, oh dude, I love the player, but AJ Brown's to alpha there, Like that kind of hurts a little bit, kind of It's why I'm kind of down on Matthew Golden, to be honest with you as well. It's like it's like, where's that path for fantasy football success? Because when I'm watching rookies and I'm giving my perspective on it, it's not from an NFL perspective. It's literally from a dynasty fantasy football perspective, Like who's gonna give me points? Like I'm trying to get the most points possible for the longest time possible. That's how I look at these players, and I think a mecca has a really really good path to produce at a high level for you. And even if it's like dude, if he turns out to be like Robert Woods, where he's like wide receiver thirteen fourteen fifteen for like eight years, that's a huge, massive win in dynasty.

00:56:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, Woods was his top comp. Woods is a really really close analytical comp with Abuca. But but Godwin was another one that that ended up popping for him. I want to ask you about the Cam Skataboo versus Base h'all toot and alemma that people are gonna be facing in the second round of these rookie drafts. You know, two early early early day three picks, two very very different running backs as well, and two situations where you know, you can make arguments either way depending on how things sort of like boil down and work themselves out in Jacksonville. So sounds like you're on You're in on Camp Scataboo. But how does that compare and how does he compare to you to base shall touton?

00:57:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm a big Camp Scataboo fan, so it's kind of hard to like ask like it's night and day when I see with those two players, Like I love when I can sit down and watch film and have fun doing it, Like I'm excited to turn on the next tape and that's Camp Scataboo. Like the guy's got really like people talking, like he's slow, but he's got really good short bursts like which is what you want. He's he's probably got the best contact balance outside of Ashton Gent. He's on another offense set. You know, the offensive line's not great. It's been proven, but not a lot of weapons there. It does suck because I do like Tyrone Tracy. He was one of he was actually one of our sne guys last year. I was like, dude, I really like Tyrone Tracy. I have so many shares of him because I was on the podcast saying, hey, you have to draft this guy, and he showed us last year. What pro impressed me the most is like his vision for like playing running back for such a short period of time, Like his issue was really well out there. That's fine because the two running back offense can work. So I think Cam' Skattaboo for me is I liked his tape so much I would clearly take him, like like probably in that anywhere from that two three to two five range in my rookie draft, where base shall Twoon's probably the back end of my second. What I like about two though, is he he's he's an explosive running back right, He's got a four three two speed. He's a very solid pass catcher. We know he's got the fumbling issues. He had nine fumbles in college, which is not good. Yet he fumbled his first carrying you know, which kind of sucks. But like, I think there's a I think I think Jacksonville again, I try to file follow some tea leaves, and I think Jacksonville tried to tell us something where like they took two in and they also took a quick la Quinn Allen. Both guys are very viable in the passing game. And the running backs they have now in Travis Etn and bank Tank Bisby are not that they're not they're not viable. And and when we look at Liam Cohen, he likes to do a lot of motion right, create space for players, and that's where two and thrives, right, like in an outside sk zone scheme, get him some space, let him kind of like flourish there.

00:59:19
Speaker 1: And I think Liam Cohen's probably looking for something along those lines.

00:59:23
Speaker 3: We we might not see two in produce early because Travis Etn's contract is guaranteed this year picking up your option. But I think there is at least a path for him to kind of be that guy kind of like even like an ala, like a Bucky Irvin where it's like maybe with the week to like week eight, week nine, somewhere on those lines, But there is a path because speed at running back like that, that's a that's a huge, huge component. And the fact that he went the fourth and camp Scattuho went the fourth, Like I mean, Campskattabo was just a couple of picks away from being a Day two guy. I think I think those guys were kind of hurt also by the flux of running back talent that was in the draft, Like people were sitting in the draft and like in the third round going man like I really want to grab these running backs a probably a little higher on the board, but there's only like another one more cornerback left, one more defensive lineman or offensive Lineman, but there's like eight running backs we like here, so we can wait till the next round and grab that guy. And I think that's why we saw two Tin Scataboo and honestly a run of those running backs.

01:00:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, Woody Marx and and et A, Yeah yeah.

01:00:24
Speaker 3: And so yeah what he Mark's example for his like a guy like the Texans gave a third round pick next year for him too, So like when you look at draft Capital, they used the fourth, fourth and a third round pick on what he marks. So yeah, two in for me in Scataboo like both really good upside players completely different ways. It sucks because I like I like. I think Cam Scattaboo is a very good pass catcher and he could run routes for size as well. But Tyrone Tracy is a former receiver and he could run routes as well.

01:00:50
Speaker 1: So like that.

01:00:52
Speaker 3: The Tyrone Tracy does hurt Skataboo a little bit for me. And it's why I have less shares than I thought I would have. I only have one share and I don't know how I will lean that way. I think on positional value jjed, I might lean the value on Tutan towards the back of the second and instead of taking Skataboo grab like a Jayden Higgins instead something along those lines.

01:01:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that that to me, Tutin has I think, probably a little bit bigger of a ceiling just because of that breakaway speed and because of what he can do. You know, if if that backfield shapes up the way that it could, like there's a non zero chance that they trade Traves etm before the season starts. Okay, let's say that that happens, and obviously there's a clear path, But if they don't, then I do think that long term, what they're thinking was exactly what you're saying, Where Tutan's a good pass catcher, a really solid pass catcher who can create these big plays and be a good change of pace, while Tank Bigsby is more of that early down guy for them, And realistically that tandem makes a lot of sense. Like the two of those backs, similarly, I think Skataboo and Tyrone Tracy make a lot of sense, where Tracy is sort of the Twutin in that example, right, but both of them bring a little bit of a of a different skill set to the table. But yeah, I mean Skataboo. At the end of the day, he looked good in my model because he probably had the second best production profile in the class, behind only gent like he it was, it was, It's pretty wild. I do wish, I do wish that the forty was a little bit better and that we got, you know, more, a little bit better of a speed score, because there is a little bit of that correlation. But that's also not totally his game anyway.

01:02:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, but it works on tape. People see that in like oh four six, Like for like that works. I know it sounds slow when you hear guys one four through what you want, but like that still works. If you watch Scataboo's tape, he was able to get to the edge and still outrun defenders. Like it's not like he's like some sludge out there, right, Like he's like, yeah, he's running molasses like he does. He's fast enough, right and how many like you don't see a ton of those breakaway runs anyways for for a lot of these guys. So for me, I'm with you, Like I like we were really all of us were really big on Camp Scoutaboo, and like we didn't understand how nobody else was like in nice tape because watching the tape in what your eyes tell you, like this guy is a baller.

01:03:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's fun. He's a lot of fun. I can't wait to see him playing. All right, I want to I don't want to keep you too long, but I do want to hear if you have any cell candidates right now that seem obvious to you. You know, you talk about those windows. You talk about these time periods where guys seem obvious to trade away or to trade four, and trading four I think is the is the less controversial. Uh, you know, take as analysts, right, like, here are some by candidates. We don't hear nearly as much crap thrown at us whenever we say go trade for this guy, but we'll hear more when we say trade away this guy. So I'm gonna put you on the spot and say maybe one or two guys that you be trading away right now?

01:03:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's always like again, that's that's my dynasty model. Who to buy, who to sell? Who to draft? Right? Like, so like we're those windows, like you said, buys, it's easy, you know, Like I think there's some good sneaky buys out there. Like Jerry Judy, Jalen Wright. I think are some really good buys there, but a guy for sell for me is going to be kind of a shock. Uh some now I think I want to I want to preface this by saying, sometimes when you sell, you say to sell a player, it doesn't necessarily mean you think that player is a bad player, you don't think he's valuable. It just means you feel like his market is overvalued. Right, So like when I talk about buy and when sell windows, like those sell windows mean something to me? Am I sell? Right now? Is CJ. Stroud in super flex leakus? You know, even as a rookie, I was like, man, I was like, from what I saw on tape, I was like, man, I think CJ. Stroud like the most of his value comes from his age, right, Like he's a twenty one, twenty two year old running back quarterback. He just finished as a rookie quarterback twenty two but like he doesn't offer a ton of running upside, and that like from a quarterback perspective, that's gonna limit you. Like, if you don't a ton of rushing upside, it's gonna limit you. And right now is ADP is twenty three overall. Like then that's like really high and super flex tight and permium drafts. And for me, I like to call stuff like that like tiers and down a little bit like Okay, who can I get for c J. Stroud again? Because I know everybody else loves c J. Stroud and and I like c J. Stroud? So who can I get? And one of the perfect examples I would say is like c J. Stroud is why I would say sell them is like you love there to get a quarterback that's going to probably perform not if not equal to better than c J. Stroud from a fantasy football perspective, and then get plus And my prime example is I'd love to see what his ADP is now. They just signed a contract extension.

01:05:27
Speaker 1: I knew you were gonna go this direction.

01:05:28
Speaker 3: This is the perfect example to go pretty. I've been saying, if you listen to my show for a while, I've been saying for two years, Rock Purty is the best value in super Flex. I remember going like I was hanging out with Ryan McDowell something. I'm like, Ryan, I was like, you know the best value in superflex right now is I was like, it's brock Purty, like you can get him for like he's going so late. People want to trade him because I think he's because he's mister irrelevant, but like the dude produces, right, Yeah, So when c J. Stroud has ADP of twenty three overall, again we're talking about like dynasty trade Cackillers, how I used ADP. I look and I see adprock Purtty is ADP of forty fifth overall. That's a couple rounds later. That means I could probably turn c J. Stroud into brock Party plus like a twenty seven first like one. I love the twenty seven class. It's been a strategy I've been doing a lot lately, honestly, been using our tools. Is getting a lot of twenty seven drafts capital, But like can I get brock Party and a first? Can't get brock Party honestly plus anything for c J.

01:06:23
Speaker 1: Stroud, ce J.

01:06:24
Speaker 3: Stroud's twenty three, Rock Purty's twenty five and honestly, since brock Purty took over, which was week thirteen and twenty twenty two. From week thirteen on, rock Perty was quarterback nine last year or twenty twenty three, he was QB six. Last year in twenty twenty four, weeks one through seventeen, he was quarterback twelve. So Brock Party has been a quarterback one every single time he's taken a snap on the field throughout the year. Ce J. Stroud is not.

01:06:49
Speaker 1: Now they bring in Jalen Noel, They bringing Jayden Higgins. Would that help him?

01:06:52
Speaker 3: Yeah? But he also had Tank Dell and Nico Collins, right, So look that didn't make a world of difference. I just think c J. Stroud like he he lives in that quarterback like eighteen territory and I'm sorry, Like if you're gonna be twenty three overall in super Flex, like I need better than that, Like I need I need brock Party numbers. Like if Brock Purty is going twenty three, that makes sense to me. So like same thing, like guys like Jordan Love are going behind uh c J. Stroud in that category out bo Nix is going behind c J. Stroud, And I know he's a little bit older, but again he offers some rushing upside. Yeah, It's like to me, like it's just like the name value outweighs the production. I'd rather just go ahead and trade that player and move down. So c J. Stroud is one of those guys I believe that I would be selling if I had any shares of them.

01:07:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good call out, especially when you look at you could even just look at Redraft rankings right now and brock Purty is ranked ahead and gets drafted ahead of c J. Stroud and Redraft. So like even in twenty twenty five alone, you're gonna get an edge with with that kind of with that kind of move So, uh, yeah, that makes a ton of sense, makes a lot of sense. Rich, I really appreciate your time, and this was a lot of fun, really great chopping it up. Let everyone know what you're working on. Where they can find you all that good stuff.

01:08:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, dinsaers dot com is where you find all our kind. If you just look at any kind of social media platform, if you put in Dinason Nerds, you're gonna find us, Like we put out content every single dayhere. I'm at Dynasty Rich, I'm on there like I don't post a ton, but I answer questions on there like I'm not. I've gotten away from posting.

01:08:24
Speaker 1: A lot, can't.

01:08:27
Speaker 3: You can't blame me like I just I've moved to the point like I like to give my opinion on the podcast and everything. Yeah, every time I want to like tweet something out, I'm like, oh no, I gotta say that for the podcast at a big podcast guy. But yeah, I mean again, we're always there. Like if you, I guess I'll pimp the Dynasty GM. It's our app. I mentioned a trade calculator in there that the app has so many different tools inside. My favorites, the league analyzer because like in Dynasty, it's so easy to get stuck in the middle, right, Like it's so easy. So like we try to give you a bird's eye view of where you stand in your league, because I think people get artificially inflating dynast leagues because what you don't realize is like in Dynasty, teams are tanking, they're trying to lose, So you have like two three teams that are tanking, So that's going to artificially push you up in the standings, like when your team's just a middle in team. And there's nothing worse in Dynasty than being stuck in the middle. So we Dynasty Jam. It's in your app store, check it out, check out dinstaards. Again, our goal like I said in the beginning, is like just to help you be a better Dynasty player overall, and and and give you the best educated guests on the decisions that you want to make. And again in a game that has a ton of variances, right, like, you just want to be right more than we're wrong. And over for eleven years now we've been right more than we're wrong. And that's where we're going to kind of keep driving to be keep innovating. We have a lot of cool new tools coming out this summer. One thing I promise you at dine Stards as well is like we're always innovated. We're constantly dropping new things in the app on the website to make you a better overall Dynasty player.

01:09:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's awesome. You guys are doing great work, great people as well, so definitely check them out. I'm on Twitter at Late Round QB. You know, like Rich said, I won't be throwing takes out there super super often. You'll find that on the podcast to make sure you're subscribed. Also, the Late Round Draft Guide is available to check that out for pre order. That's going to launch July first. That's for redraft purposes, not for dynasty purposes, but check it all out over on lateround dot com. Otherwise, everyone enjoy your holiday weekend and thanks for tuning in.