683: Week 4 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ zacheras j J. Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode six hundred and eighty three of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. It was a pretty average week for this show this past week. Trey lomberks he was an inch away from scoring a touchdown, but he couldn't score and that really hurt his day. The tight end streamers, they didn't do that much of anything either. Jacoby Myers didn't even end up playing Brashad Perriman finished with three catches for forty four yards, although I did mention liking Russell Gage that was good. And then the Panthers offense and Robbie Anderson were bad once again. On the plus side, the quarterback streamers were fine enough. Josh Palmer was the wide receiver twenty five in PPR formats, and Jad McKissick saw nine targets and he caught six of them. But the best call of the season happened last week. That was Mac Hollins. Hollins ended up having a career with eight catches one hundred and fifty eight receiving yards and a touchdown. He was the wide receiver two on the week, so at least I was on Matt Collins last week. Now we're on to Week four. Before getting into the sleepers this week, I want to remind you that Twisted Tea and Fandle of joined forces to bring you a one of a kind contest series that gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in site credit. Introducing Twisted Tea's College Football Picks, a sports betting focused contest series that's entirely free to play. The contest is simple. Each college football game will be assigned money lines spread in total markets, with assigned points to each market. All you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct selection you made. If at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest, you'll be eligible for your share of site credit. Head over to fandle dot com slash Twisted Tea Picks and make your picks, and remember please drink responsibly. I'll be honest with you, guys. This week is really tough for this show. At the time of this recording, and I record this on Wednesdays. There aren't a ton of injuries that would force lower rostered players to be elevated. There just aren't many players to pick from, but I'm up for the challenge. First up is the tier of players who are rostered in twenty six to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. So they're sleepers, but they're not deep ones. And we'll start with by far my favorite quarterback streamer this week, Jared Goff. It's crazy, but according to Fandals Sportsbook, Detroit is the highest implied team total in the week. They're facing Seattle in a game that has a fifteen and a half point over under, and Detroit's currently a four and a half point favorite. That's good news for GoF, as is the fact that the Seahawks are sixth and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this year. That's just quarterback points allowed adjusted for strength of opponent. Those numbers still have plenty of variants this time of year, but at home in a dome, this is a good spot for Jared Goff. Let's just hope everything looks good with Amen Ross Saint Brown if he plays. Goff to me is a top ten quarterback this week, at least from a rankings. Now, I would love to mention some running backs in this year, but there are literally like five of them rostered in twenty six to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues right now. I don't want to force it. So we'll move on to wide receiver and talk about a wide out who had a great Week three, and that's Russell Gage. Gage is still out there in fifty eight percent of Yahoo leagues and he's seen eighteen percent and thirty two percent of Tampa Bay's targets over his last two games. He got twelve of thirteen targets last week for eighty seven yards in a touchdown. Now he gets Kansas City and what's admittedly a very average matchup. I'm just not expecting Chris Godwin to be back. And while Mike Evans is going to return, if we see Gage with an eighteen percent target year his median this year, that should be good enough to at least have a shot to be flexworthy. The Chiefs have been pretty average against the slot this year, which is where Gage has played sixty eight point nine percent of his snaps according to PFF. Now, speaking of the slot, Greg Dortch has done a really nice job filling in for Rondell Moore. He's been talked about on this show in the past, and he deserves another shout this week the Cardinals get the Panthers. The Panthers rank is the eleventh best wide receiver matchup and adjusted points allowed so far this year. When you adjust the target share that they've allowed to the position, they rank second, meaning thus far in twenty twenty two, teams have used their wide receivers more against Carolina than when they faced other opponents. They're also a top ten opponent for wide receivers. When looking at slot numbers, They've allowed the ninth highest rate of targets to go to the slot and they ranked ninth in yards.

00:04:26
Speaker 2: Allowed to the slot.

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Speaker 1: Greg George has played over eighty eight percent of his snaps from the slot this season. He's ranked as a top thirty wide receiver in each of his first three games while hitting an eighteen percent target share in two of those three. Oh and AJ Green is doubtful, which isn't saying much, but it's an opening since a backup is going to be on the field more now. That is, unless Rondell Moore ends up returning this week because he did practice on Wednesday, So there's a chance that we see More, which would really screw up this play. But but if More doesn't go or find out that he's not going to play his normal number of snaps, George is a pretty wrong high floor player. Now, as I said a minute ago, this is a tough week. There's one more wide receiver in this tier. But it's not like the matchup is screaming that you have to start him. But it's Traylon Burks. It's a below average matchup against the Colts. But like I said in the fifteen Transactions show, even though Burkes saw his lowest target share of the season this past week, he had his best usage of the season from a snaps and route participation standpoint. He's talented and he'll be on the field more. That's all I can really say about him for this week though. There just aren't a ton of wide outs to choose from from this tier, and then at tight end you could go with Tyler Conklin. I'm definitely concerned about what this Jets offense will look like if and when they throw less, and if and when Zach Wilson is under center. Both of those things can happen this weekend against Pittsburgh. Fortunately for Conklin, though, the Steelers are the eleventh best matchup and adjusted tight end fantasy points allowed so far this year, and they continue to be pretty bad against the slot. Pittsburgh's been bad against slot players for years under Mike Tomlin, and thus far their fifth in slot yard allowed. Tyler Conklin's played over thirty percent of his snaps from the slot. According to PFF. That area of the field is where tight ends line up. We saw David and Joko who take advantage of that matchup just last week. I don't think Conklin's like this slam dunk play, but the matchup is there and he's seen a sixteen percent target share in this Jets offense so far this year. Now the next year consists of players who are rostered in ten to twenty five percent of Yahoo leagues. And I've got another quarterback streamer for you. His name, Marcus Mariota is someone I keep bringing up each week. Mariota has now scored between about thirteen and twenty standard Fantasy points in each of his first three games. He's averaging over eight rush attempts per game. Only Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields Lamar Jackson have more rush attempts this year than Marcus Mariota. Mariota is averaging seven fantasy points per game with his legs alone. Now he gets Cleveland in a game with one of the higher over unders on this slate, and Cleveland's been the third best matchup for quarterbacks and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. So I think Mariota is in a pretty good spot at home now. As I always say on the show, gamescript is hugely important for running back sleepers. It's basically the only way they're gonna hit because if there's any running back who's not gamescript dependent, he's likely already rostered. So with that being said, the Texans are five and a half point home underdogs this week against the Chargers. Now, the last time these two teams face was in December of twenty twenty one. It ended up being a very high scoring game and Rex Burkhead went nuts. It was probably the best game of his career. Now the Texans played with a positive game script. Then, I'm just bringing that all up as a story to segue to Rex Burkhead. Damian Pierce is the running back that you want to use from the Texans. Yes, but despite last week's performance, Rex Burkhead was still playing third downs for Houston. He's still been the team's pass catching back in the hurry up back. So if we do see a negative game script for the Texans, maybe Burkhead could get some cheap looks in PPR formats. He's now seen a sixteen percent plus target share in two of his three games this year. I hope that you don't have to rely on him, but there are worse starts that you can throw. Another player to look at is Noah Brown. Brown see nine to five and seven targets in three games so far this year, accounting for a twenty one percent target share in that Dallas offense. The Commanders, his opponent this weekend, have been the sixth best matchup for wide receivers this year and adjusted points allowed, and even better at defending the slot than the perimeter, which is another plus for Brown because Brown's played more snaps in the outside than the inside this year, though the Cowboys just move pieces around their offense all the time.

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Speaker 2: Brown's been really good though.

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Speaker 1: He ranks in the top twenty and yards per route run this year among wide receivers with ten or more targets. Michael Gallup might be back this weekend, but we can't expect a normal number of snaps from Gallup coming off that ACL, so I wouldn't put a ton of weight into that, and for the record, Gallup should be added in fantasy. I realize today while doing this research that he's still available in sixty four percent of Yahoo leagus, so go at him lastly in this tiar. I like Evan Ingram at least enough. He's ninth in the NFL and routes run a tight ends seventh in route participation. The Jacks could also finally face a true negative game script against Philly this week that could lead to more passing on the season. Jacksonville's twenty third in overall pass rate, but there are eleventh when in neutral game scripts, meaning when games are closer, they're throwing the ball more. There's a decent enough scoring environment projected against Philly, and while the Eagles have been good against tight ends this year, they've been good against every position. Basically, they've actually been better defending wide outs than they have tight ends. So Ingram's a decent enough streamer. The final tier, I'll be talking about today. Our players rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues. This is where Mac Collins was last week. I highly doubt we're gonna get another Mac Collins this week, but who knows. Jacoby Pressett is another quarterback streamer that you could look to. I know it sounds crazy, but Bersett's actually been pretty solid to start the year. He scored fifteen and a half and eighteen Fantasy points over his last two games, and now he gets Atlanta. The Falcons are the second best matchup and adjusted points allowed to quarter this year, having a lot of QB six performance to Jamis Winston and a QB seven one to Gino Smith. This game has a sneaky high over under, so Brissett does make sense as a deeper play.

00:10:11
Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Moving to running back, Jerrick McKinnon has now played more snaps than Clyde Edwards a layer in each of Kansas City's last two games, and he tied with him in Week one. He doesn't have the best matchup in the world against Tampa Bay this week, but he's averaging five rush attempts at more than two targets per game. I know that's not a lot, but that's what we're dealing with with players who are rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues. McKinnon's been used as the third down back, though, and there's always a chance that a good team like Tampa Bay could force a negative game script for Kansas City. That's not the expectation, but it could happen. I think he's worth an AD this week in general because of the snap sharing Kansas City, but he's like a low end RB four this week, so that's why he's getting a shout in this section. To me, Craig Reynolds is the easier go to running back from this tier. Not only did Reynolds have some fantasy relevancy when running back injuries occurred in Detroit last year, but the Lions generally have split their backfield. I'm projecting more of a two third share to Jamal Williams, with Craig Reynolds seeing the other piece of that pie against Seattle. And remember, like I said earlier, this is a game where Detroit is the highest team total on this slate and their favorites that could lead to more running back usage overall. Now, there are a lot of issues with the New York Giants offense, and without Sterling Shepherd, someone's gonna have to step up. I think Kadarius Tony's worth a stash, and I also think Wandel Robinson's worth a stash. But the one player who's probably easiest to start this week for the Giants, just given Tony and Robinson are dealing with injuries, is Richie James. James has a twenty percent target here for New York this season. He's second on the team in routes run according to PFF. He's played eighty four percent of his snaps from the slot. In Chicago's opponent this week, they've been an above average matchup for slot players so far this year. It's a beatable defense, and like I said, he's sort of the only reliable piece for them right now. So I don't mind Richie James. And then the last player here, kJ Osborne. Osbourne had eight targets last week that ended up being a twenty one point six percent target share, and he came through with a big touchdown and a top fifteen wide receiver performance. Now, some might think that I'm dealing with recency bias here, but that's.

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Speaker 2: Not really true.

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Speaker 1: He's run about twenty fewer routes than Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielan this season while playing fifty six percent of his snaps from the slot, and he gets New Orleans this week.

00:12:22
Speaker 2: The Saints.

00:12:23
Speaker 1: Last year, they were first in slot yards allowed and third and percentage of targets allowed to the slot, and that's continued in twenty twenty two. This year, only two teams have allowed a higher concentration of targets to go to that area of the field. He's certainly a deep play, but I think he at least makes sense matchup wise. And then, as always, I've got some streaming defenses for you this week as well. I like the Giants against Chicago, like I talked about on the fifty Transactions episode, But I also think that you could look to the Colts against Tennessee and then don't sleep on Miami against Cincinnati on Thursday night. It could be a higher scoring contest just given the offenses that we're dealing with. But Joe Burrow so loves to take sacks. Even last week against the Jets in a positive game script, he took two sacks and the Bengals allowed the eighth most quarterback hits. That number was far higher against both Pittsburgh and Dallas in weeks one and two. It's not that amazing of a week for streaming defenses, but I think Miami could surprise. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you've get subscribed to Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. You know, to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to check out lateround dot com for everything that I'm offering. Join the Patreon I'm doing rest of season rankings there, weekly rankings. There's a great discord community, and much more.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. Everyone greatly appreciate it. I'll talk to you tomorrow.