530: Early-Season Schedule Analysis

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zachersa j Jake Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachariesen, the editor in chief at Fandle and at number fire dot com, in this episode five hundred and thirty of the Late Round podcast. On many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network, Thanks for tuning in. Every fantasy football season, there's a debate about the importance of strength of schedule because we're nerds. Just accept it. We're nerds. On one side of the debate, you've got people who think it doesn't matter, that strength of schedule doesn't matter because it's too hard to predict. Not only is it difficult to forecast defensive performance, but things change in football all the time. Injuries happen. How we feel about an opponent before week one could be drastically different versus how we feel before Week sixteen. And while I don't disagree completely with that notion, I'm someone who believes in utilizing as much information as possible to find any sort of edge that I can find to beat my league mates. Like, if this is the way that we thought about everything fantasy football related, then why forecast anything at all? Something that's hard to forecast, or something that's not as significant as something else. That doesn't mean it's irrelevant. It can still be helpful. Now, a strength of schedule everything for a player in fantasy football, No, not even close. Give me a player who's bound to see lots of volume. Give me a running back who's catching a lot of passes out of the backfield, or a receiver who's almost guaranteed to see a lot of end zone targets. We should absolutely be looking at those things before we care about strength of schedule. But again, that doesn't make strength of schedule irrelevant, especially if you approach it in a logical way. You know a lot of times you'll see analysis that shows strength of schedule by looking at what's already happened. It'll be something like, this wide receiver is facing this defense that gave up the most fantasy points to wide receivers last year. Therefore, you should avoid this wide receiver. There are better ways to approach strength of schedule then looking at previous season fantasy points allowed. For example, if you want to see how difficult an overall schedule might be for a team, why not look at win total odds from fandom sportsbook, because that's a projection, it's not something that's already happened in the past. And we can utilize tools all over the place to help us better predict matchups, like we've got projections at number fire that help us see which pass defenses are going to be best this year. In places like Pro Football Focus have comprehensive ways to determine the best secondaries in football heading into a season. That information has plenty of variance, sure, but so does a lot of stuff that we're projecting in fantasy football. It's not as though it's all wrong. It's not wrong to still analyze that data. We're trying to find these small ledges over our league mates, and that can be helpful. Strength of schedule can be helpful, and that's specifically true when looking at the beginning of a season from a strength of schedule perspective. If you're worried about a lot of things changing due to injury late in the year, at least at the start of the year, teams are healthy, we're working with better information, so it's then a little bit easier to project which teams are facing tough schedules. Not only that, and I say this every year on the show. But having a fantasy football asset get off to a good start. That's important from a game theory standpoint and also a mental standpoint. You want your assets in fantasy football to appreciate in value. If a player has a terribly difficult schedule to kick off the year, then there's a bigger chance that he'll see his market value drop once Week three or Week four hits. Meanwhile, a player with an advantageous schedule, he'll see his value rise. But the mental game is very real too. If you drafted a guy in round six to be your starter in a flex spot and he's off to a bad start, even if you can attribute that start partially to a tough schedule, in the back of your mind, you're going to be thinking, well, what if he actually just isn't that good? What if it's not the schedule. In an ideal world, the players on your fantasy team are getting off to good starts. And that's what today's show is all about, to perhaps give you a tiebreaker for some players based on analyzing their early season schedules. Now, before get into that analysis, Baseball Fans, Fandal is giving you an exclusive way to get in on the action with the MLB's Single Entry Series presented by Roto Grinders. Each week entered a featured Single Entry Series contest to win cash and compete for a seat in the forty thousand dollars online final. Just play daily and fandel will add your four highest point totals together to get your combined score and rank for the week. Head over to FANDL and enter the MLB Single Entry Series today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the Fandle app for more details. So I'm going to break up today's show by looking at players or teams that have good early season schedules, and then I'll look at players and teams who have bad ones. I'll start with the good news and then deliver the bad news. Like I said, one way of looking at this stuff is to look at opponent team win totals. Fandal Sportsbook has had their win totals up all offseason. Plug them in. You start to see a couple of instances where teams have cakewalk starts to their season, and when a team has a good positive game script when they're facing a bad team and they're leading throughout that game. You know what that means, their running backs have an opportunity to feast. So let's start with the forty nine ers. We've got two rookies on the forty nine ers this year that we're hoping can break out for fantasy football purposes, and they're both named Trey. You've got Trey Lance and Trey Sermon. One thing that could slow that process down is if Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert get the starting nods at the beginning of the season because they are veterans, and then they do well. And the issue for both Lance and Sermon is that the forty nine ers should do well offensively to kick off the season because they get Detroit in Week one and then they get Philly in Week two. Detroit has a win total of five over on Fandel Sportsbook, Philly's at six and a half. Fandel Sportsbook already has the lines out for those games as well. The forty nine Ers are seven and a half point favorites in Week one against the Lions and they're five and a half point favorites in Week two against the Eagles. I do expect there to be some sort of committee in that backfield to start the season, so both Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon they have a chance to really do well. My bigger fear is with Trey Lance if he doesn't get the Week one nod. Jimmy Garoppolo really shouldn't have any issues against Detroit or Philadelphia. Not only is a positive game script likely, but neither secondary is projected to be good heading into the year. Jimmy g may not be tested until Week three against Green Bay. So with San Francisco, I'd feel even more bullish on their run game and I'd still feel as confident about their pass catchers entering the year. The truth of the matter for the run game two is that when you look at strength of schedule from the perspective of win totals, no team has an easier schedule this year across the entire season than the forty nine Ers, so that run game should be in a good spot for most of the year. It's just glaringly obvious at the beginning of the season given the game scripts that they're likely going to face a team in a very similar spot to the forty nine Ers to start the year is the Broncos, and like the forty nine Ers. The Broncos have good weapons with a huge question market quarterback, and they have a run game that should produce for fantasy purposes. And like the forty nine Ers, the Broncos have a rookie running back in that backfield. I'm very into Javonte Williams this year. It makes me even more excited to see that the Broncos start their season off against the Giants, Jags and Jets, three teams with win totals of seven, six and a half and six. Those are three of the worst teams in football when looking at win totals. This isn't as clean as it was for San Francisco, though, because Denver's not as good as San Francisco. The Broncos are actually one point underdogs in Week one according to Fandals Sportsbook, and then they're just two and a half point road favorites against Jacksonville in Week two. What's sort of intriguing here, though, is that we can at least feel confident about the Broncos, a team that's fairly average from a win total standpoint. We can feel confident that they're gonna be in those games, which means we can worry less about gascript that's especially important for the running backs. According to Pro Football Focuses Front seven rankings this year, the Giants are eighteenth, the Jags are thirtieth, and the Jets are seventh. There's a chance we see the Broncos as favorites against the Jets, though, which makes that ranking a little less relevant. And with the Giants, they're going to be a team that's tougher to pass on this year. The Giants have a good secondary, so I think it's logical to be slightly more bullish on that Denver run game to start the year because we could see their value increase after the first few weeks of the season. If you look specifically at the plus early season schedules for passing attacks across the league, three stand out in my eyes. One of them is Baltimore. The Ravens face the Raiders, Chiefs, and Lions weeks one through three. The Raiders and Lions have at least on paper, bottom five pass defenses. Both Number Fire and Pro Football Focus have them in the bottom five, and Kansas City is projected to be fairly average. So this is good news for Lamar Jackson, of course, and then the pass catchers on that team as well, feel good about them to start the year, and feel good about JK. Dobbins and Gus Edwards as well. The Ravens are five point favorites against the Raiders in Week one, and you have to imagine they're going to be gigantic favorites against Detroit in Week three. Now, another team with a good passing game start is Tampa Bay. They likely would have had a good start through the air regardless, but then you see that they get Dallas in Atlanta in weeks one and two, and it all becomes obvious tom Brady's going to have a good start to the season. Both Dallas and Atlanta are entering the year with what should be strong offenses and suspect defenses. That Week one game against Dallas is a fifty one and a half point over under. That's the second highest in Week one. So if you're considering Tom Brady as this laterish round quarterback target, at least you can feel good that he's in a great great spot weeks one and two. Now, Baltimore and Tampa Bay were probably gonna be fined through the air regardless to start the year. The one team's passing attack that I'm really intrigued by. Though, just based off of the analysis that I did on early season schedules, is Philadelphia Now from a win total standpoint, the Eagles don't have a cake walk schedule to start the year. Across the first three games, they get Atlanta, San Francisco, and Dallas. Well, I just mentioned that Dallas and Atlanta are plus matchups for passing attacks. In fact, Pro Football focuses secondary rankings. They have them second to last and last. And I understand that San Francisco is not the best matchup in the world, but PFF has the forty nine ers at twenty. You've also got the potential for some higher scoring games in there. So if you are someone who's been targeting Jalen Hurts for his rushing upside, I think he's an even more attractive option right now because of the first three weeks of the season. When we get those games where quarterbacks put together a good rushing total with awesome passing numbers, they can win you weeks. So to recap the positive side of this early season schedule analysis, you've got the San Francisco offense, specifically the running game, the Denver run game, and then the Bucks Ravens and Eagles passing games. Now I've got four things to watch out on the negative side. Now, let's start with the Raiders their passing attack. When you look at strength of schedule with a win total lens, the Raiders actually have the hardest schedule in the league this year. So overall, that's not good for someone like Josh Jacobs, who's going to thrive in more positive game scripts than negative game scripts. But the first chunk of their season is brutal for the passing attack. Week one, they get Baltimore. The Ravens have one of the best secondaries in the league. Week two, they get Pittsburgh. We know that Pittsburgh can get to the quarterback and that can limit fantasy points four quarterbacks. Week three is Miami, which we'll see what happens with Zavian Howard, and then they get the Chargers, which should be fine. In Chicago, which again is fine enough, and then Denver, which is gonna be tough. I mean, we're looking at at least three really tough matchups in that stretch in the first six games. It's very hard to back Derek Carr as some late round quarterback. Not that a ton of people are doing that. And it should give us some pause for the non Darren Waller players in that offense, which is kind of annoying because I still like Brian Edwards is a dart throw in that offense. But they've got a really tough schedule this year, including the start of the season. Now, I mentioned Miami on the defensive side of the ball, but their passing attack has a rough Week one and two against New England and Buffalo. Those two teams have potential top five secondaries, and if Miami gets off to a rough start on offense, you know what's going to happen. We're gonna question Tua. We're going to question his ability to lead that offense. So all of a sudden, you have this late round quarterback that you might be into right now. He has a higher chance now of giving you a mediocre performance in both weeks one and two, and then they get this plus matchup in Week three against the Raiders. But you're not gonna feel as confident starting him as you want to feel. I'm not saying this is a lock to happen, but it's not hard to see something like that happening. It's another reason I prefer one of the other quarterbacks this year. Like I talked about on last week's mailback episode, the Giants passing offense, and I would say offense in general, it's in a similar spot. Week one, they get Denver, Week two they get Washington. Have fun with that. Denver secondary is really really improved. It's gonna battle to be one of the best secondaries in the league this year. And we know that Washington's front seven can make it messy for opposing offenses. So just like Miami in Week three, it's a plus matchup for the Giants because they get the Falcons. But where are we gonna be with them psychologically at that time? Are we going to have any confidence? So they're not in a good spot to start the year. And then the last one on this side of the equation is Kansas City. I wanted to bring them up because, yes, their schedule isn't easy to start the year. Facing Cleveland in Baltimore secondaries is not gonna be fun. But offense Trump's defense. A lot of the offenses that I mentioned today are ones on the fringe. They're not Kansas City. You can use all this information as a tiebreaker, but not as the sole reason that you're fading or going all in on a player unless that player is a streamer, because you want these positive matchups for streamers. Patrick Mahomes is not a streamer. Would I be surprised if Patrick Mahomes starts off the year as like a low end QB one, No, I wouldn't. That happens all the time in fantasy football. I would be surprised if he maintains that all year. Though. Now, since I'm looking at early season schedules here, you guys probably want some takes on defense. You want some defensive streamers or just defenses in general to target in your draft. So I got you. I'm gonna do this quickly. Green Bay opens up their season against the Saints and then they get the Lions. The Packers are two and a half point favorites in Week one, and they're ten point favorites in Week two, So I think they're a good play in Week one just in general with the quarterback change in New Orleans and there's no Michael Thomas, and then they're an absolute smash play in Week two. So you can get them and then keep them for the first two weeks of the season. And San Francisco is another option. With games against Detroit and Philly. I already mentioned that they're big favorites in those games. I'd prefer San Francisco over Green Bay actually, and Denver, like I just talked about, they get the Giants and the Jags, so they're also in play and they're a very good defense if you want a one week play. Jacksonville gets Houston, so if we assume there's no Deshaun Watson under center, they're a true streaming option. The Panthers get the Jets. That's another potential true streaming option, and then the Seahawks get the Carson wentzless Indianapolis Colts. Now, I know I did that fast. I didn't have a lot of detail there, but I think that covers the defensive streaming side. Again, I want to reiterate this analysis today is not everything. I think it's something, and it's definitely something to keep in mind while drafting, but don't let it overshadow a logical take on a player. Volume is more important than schedule. Offensive situation is more important than schedule, but schedule definitely is not irrelevant. That's going to do for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round podcast. Make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you later in the week.