677: 15 Transactions for Week 3

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachera Ja Jake Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Eson and this is episode six hundred and seventy seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Thursday Nights officially belong to the NFL again, and FANDL and Amazon Prime Video have teamed up to bring you more ways to win this NFL season, introducing the Prime Video Pick Them, a free to play pickum contest centered around one of the most exciting events of the week, Thursday Night Football. Here's how it works. You'll be giving ten questions to answer about Thursday Night's game. Fans who answer the most questions correctly will win a share fifteen thousand dollars in cash prizes. It's that easy. Be sure to tune into Amazon Prime Videos Thursday Night Football Week three matchup to keep track of your score. No purchase necessary, Agent location restrictions apply, void where prohibited. See full terms and fandled. It's a fifteen transactions day. Let's do this by Leonard Fournette. So the Buccaneers haven't really been themselves over the first two weeks. Of this season. Tom Brady's thrown sixty one pass attempts last year. Through two weeks, he was at eighty six and Tampa Bay right now is bottom ten in yards per play. But here's my simple question, are we going to really bet against Tom Brady? The Buccaneers have now faced two good defenses in Dallas and New Orleans. There was no Arid out gamescript and they've also had some wide receiver injuries too and ejections. Mike Evans is now suspended for Week three. Leonard Fournette, in turn, has been totally average in terms of production. He scored fifteen point seven to nine point four PPR points in his two games, but he's seeing a lot of work. He's one of eight running backs pre Monday Night Football who's seen at least eighty percent of his team's running back rushes. He's at eighty four percent, and of that group, he's one of six to have a ten percent plus target share this season. We know the ceiling is there for Leonard Fournette. If and when this offense gets going, I don't know if they're gonna be as good as they were in twenty twenty one or even twenty twenty, but they will be better offensively. There won't be a bottom ten unit, so that means more fantasy points for Leonard Fournette, who is still a bellcow in that offense. Sell Or hold Clyde Edwards Hilaire so cech has looked pretty good this season. He had a couple of short receiving touchdowns in Week one that gave him a top six running back finish, and then this past week the running back position just wasn't very good, so he had another top ten finish. And I'll be honest with you. You just heard me say to sell Clyde Edwards Hilaire. There's a very real chance that a lot of fantasy managers just don't believe in him because he's burned them so many times in the past. So admittedly this transaction is a little bit iffy. I just wanted to point out that there are some red flags with his usage. Talked about this a little bit last week, but in their Week one blowout win, Edwards Lair only handled thirty percent of the team's running back rushes. He had a seven point seven percent target share. Now that definitely had to do with the blowout. That definitely had to do with game script, but it's still noteworthy because it could happen again, and the next time it happens, we can't bank on two receiving touchdowns. Now, in Week two against the Chargers, that running back rush share did rise, but it was still just fifty three point three percent. His target share was solid, it was eleven point eight percent. But that's not exactly RB one type usage, but that's how he's scoring. He's scoring like an RB one. And then the other thing is after two games, Jeric McKinnon and Isaiah Pacheco each have a goal line rush. Clyde Edwards a layer does not, and that's a continuation from last year's usage. Cech had just three goal line attempts in ten games last year. And then, lastly, when looking at Pro Football focuses expected Fantasy points formula, which tells us how many points we'd expect a player to score with the type of volume that he seeing, Clyde Edwards Hilaire has exceeded that expectation by roughly eighteen PPR points so far, so regression is on its way. But again I will say this cell recommendation is making the assumption that you actually can sell high I don't know if that's really the case, but I would love to sell Cech for a high end wide receiver or maybe pair him with another player to really upgrade the running back position, to really get a belcow back. But if you can't do that, I might just hold Cech Because the offense is good, He's likely going to play above expectation because of the Chiefs offense. I just don't think he's gonna play this far above expectation. Hold sky more So. Speaking of the Chiefs offense, sky Moore has not done a whole lot to start his NFL career. He's played fifteen snaps over his first two games. But I wanted to shout him out this week because there were people talking about him on the Late Round Fantasy Football discord asking if they should drop him. I think it's still time to be paid now. It's understandable if you're in a shallow league and you need to drop Sky more you can't just wait around. But there are a few things to keep in mind. First, this Kansas City offense is one of the best in the league, so situationally, we know that he's in a good spot. Second, look at the Kansas City wide receivers. What have they done to start the year. I do think that Juju Smith Schuster is sort of a by candidate right now. But it's not like this group has been awesome. They didn't look very good in Week two at all. And then the most important piece, the third thing, is that prospects like sky Moore, they tend to produce much better during the second half of their rookie seasons. We would love for them to get off to a hot start, but non elite, non first round rookie wide receivers tend to see huge spikes in fantasy scoring during the second half of their rookie seasons. I laid this all out in episode six hundred and forty seven on rookie wide receivers in redraft leagues. So if I can do it, I'm keeping sky Moore rostered, and I'm just watching over the next week or two to see if that snap indeed increase. Ad Garrett Wilson. So, Garrett Wilson looks like a stud. My prospect model liked him. He was a ninety seven percentile prospect in that model. Anything about the ninety fifth percentile is a very good sign, and so far, so good. He now leads the Jets with a twenty two percent target share, and he saw fourteen targets in Week two. Now, he did play fewer snaps in both Elijah Moore and Corey Davis, so he's technically playing behind those guys, but because of Gamescrip for New York, he ran just as many routes as Corey Davis did in Week two. Now. I'm still a believer in Elijah Moore the talent, and Wilson will need to leap frog Corey Davis to be easier to start each week. But we can't sit here and say that that's unlikely to happen. Garrett Wilson is clearly a very talented wide receiver and you want talent on your fantasy roster. Maybe his high target share won't maintain with a switch of quarterback, but you should be adding Garrett Wilson this week. Absolutely. I think he's the number one waiver wire ad by Chris A. Lava. So, speaking of studs, Chris Alave might be a stud two. My prospect model gave him a ninety eighth percentile rating. Again, anything over the ninety fifth percentile is considered very very good. He hasn't produced like Garrett Wilson so far, but a Lave's peripherals in Week two were out of this world. He had a disappointing nine point four percent target share in week one, but in week two that rose to thirty two point five percent. He had thirteen targets. He ended up seeing over three hundred air yards. According to Michael Florio of NFL Fantasy, a Lave had the third highest air yards total in the Next Gen Stats era this past week. In his second career game, he and Jamis Winson just couldn't connect, so he had a five catch eighty yard day, which is still a good day, but better days are definitely ahead for Chris alave Hold Travis Etn. So through two games, James Robinson is out of attempted ETN thirty four to thirteen, and Etn has seen seven targets to Robinson's four. Now, this may seem really really bad for Etn and it's not great for him, but there are a couple of pieces of good news. First, when you look at Pro Football focuses expected Fantasy points formula, James Robinson has been expected to score about thirty PPR points so far this year. He's exceeded that by about six points. Meanwhile, Etn he's at about twenty one expected points. He's been below that. So technically, this gap that we see between James Robinson and Travis Etn, it's probably not as significant as it seems. And the other thing to keep in mind is that the Jags have played in two game scripts that have favored James Robinson. Part of the Travis Etn allure, aside from the fact that James Robinson was hurt, which seems to not matter at all because he's amazing, but part of the lore is that Jacksonville will be trailing in games this year, and thus far that really hasn't been the case. But they get the Chargers and the Eagles over their next two that could really benefit etns snapshare. But yeah, I think this James Robinson emergence, if you will. I mean, he's always been a really good player, but the fact that he's gotten over this injury, I think it means that we're unlikely going to see Travis Etn as an RB one in Fantasy football and PPR formats, but he can still be a valuable RB two, So trading him away right now does not seem logical ad Raheem Moster. So last week I talked about Chase Edmonds being a by candidate based on his Week one usage and if it maintained, he would be probably a mid range RB two this year. And then Week two happened and it didn't maintain. Out of nowhere, the Dolphins decided to use Raheem Mostered a lot more against the Ravens. Mostard played forty one point seven percent of the team snaps in Week one. That was almost fifty five percent in week two. He saw twenty seven point eight percent of the team's running back rushes in week one. That was sixty four point seven percent in week two. Edmunds week one usage was seriously amazing, but not this week week two usage. Mostard ran just one fewer route than Chase Edmonds in that shootout win over the Ravens. The difference in Week one in routes run was eight. So if this is a true split like we saw in week two, then that's big for Raheem Mostart and it's not great for Chase Edmonds. Right now, Mostart's Rostered in forty three percent of Yahoo leaguees, so we could be out there in your league, sell Antonio Gibson. So the Week one fifteen Transactions podcast, I talked about holding Antonio Gibson despite the fact that I didn't like him that much entering the season this year. But this is what I wrote about him. I said, so there's less of a chance that McKissick is heavily involved in those contests. I may not feel confident in the season long outlook, but Gibson may come out looking fine after two weeks of football. And that was purely just based on the schedule. Washington opened up their season against Jacksonville and Detroit, and Gibson came through before Monday Night football. Gibson sitting at RB eleven and PPR points scored at running back. Now, I'm not saying all this to just pat myself on the back. I'm just pointing out that this plan has come to fruition. Selling Gibson before the season started wouldn't have made that much sense because of their schedule, but now you can do it, especially after what we saw last week. Week two was not very good for Antonio Gibson. He scored twelve point one Ppier points. That's great, he found the end zone, but his target share dip below that ten percent mark, with JD McKissick seeing more work in a negative game script. In week one, Gibson ran more routes according to Pro Football Focus than McKissick did, but that flipped in week two with mackissick running more and Gibson's snapshare fell by almost ten percent from week one to week two. This is the problem that you can run into with game script dependent running backs. Without that touchdown this past week, Antonio Gibson would not have been that great. That's just not something that I like to deal with week in and week out. We have a larger sample size now of Gibson not seeing that many looks through the air with jdmckissick act. And there's another reason that you might want to sell Gibson too, ad Brian Robinson. This is the reason, as we know, the Commanders spent a Day two pick on Brian Robinson this offseason. He has a three down skill set and he looked great in the preseason, but as we all know, he was unfortunately shot in an armed robbery before the season. But thankfully all reports in his recovery have been very positive. He actually got back to practice last week. We don't really know where this is headed. But since he's rostered in fewer than half of Yahoo leagues, I don't think he's a bad speculative ad this week. This week isn't that great for the waiver wire anyway, ad Ashton Doolan. One of the lower key question marks entering the season for fantasy purposes was who's going to be the number two option in Indianapolis. We know they have Michael Pittman, but who's going to be the guy that emerges opposite of him? Would it be Alec Pierce, maybe Paris Campbell. Now we still don't have our answer, but it might be Ashton Doolan. Dulan's a small school wide receiver who had insane production. I remember when he was coming out. I actually talked about him on this show. But because he's coming from this small school, he came from Malone University. Because he's coming from this small school, it wouldn't be that surprising for him to take some time to get acclimated to the NFL. So the fact that he's a fourth year wide receiver, I don't think that's a sign that he can't produce. And he's been productive this year. He already has one hundred and twenty five receiving yards, and he's a sixteen point seven percent target share in this Colts offense, and that's while playing just forty five percent of the team's offensive snaps. He's been targeted at a top ten rate per route run this year. Michael Pittman's banged up, Alec Pearce is dealing with a concussion. There's potential for Dulan in Week three, but even when everyone's healthy, we should be open to the idea that Ashton Doolan could work his way to being the Colts number two wide receiver. Moore, Yeah, I'm a little bit panicked about DJ Moore. I think he's a great football player. He's one of the better wide receivers in the league. And it's always tough to sit here on this show and talk about a very good player being a cell candidate because it can really bite me in the butt. I just don't know if Baker Mayfield is going to be able to elevate more in fantasy football. Through two games, Robby Anderson is out targeted more thirteen to eleven. He leads this team in expected points a wide receiver. The Panthers are bottom ten in the league in yards per play, and Baker Mayfield ranks outside the top thirty in quarterback grade over on Pro Football Focus. Maybe this is me just overreacting to two games, and maybe the Panthers get rid of Matt Rules sooner rather than later, which could help the offense, because I think Matt Rule is not very good. I'm just not convinced this offense is going to take a step forward, and with the early season target shaers looking the way they look, and maybe the right time to move on for more because of his Week two output. Ad Sterling Chef. One of the things that I just generally got wrong this year was overstating injuries. These guys are coming back from Achilles much faster than I expected, and good for them. I'm happy for them. I just ended up getting that wrong after two weeks. Sterling Shepard coming off this Achilles tear at twenty nine years old, He's crushing it. He leads all Giants receivers in snapchare we have to react to this because Sterling Shepherd's a really good football player. Kenny Galladay is now completely irrelevant in this New York offense. He played two snaps this past week, Kadarius Tony hasn't completely won over this staff yet, so it's Sterling Shepard. He has a twenty six point four percent target share this season. We've seen Sheppard be productive in the past, and it seems like this Achilles injury is completely behind him, so I think he's a very good ad this week. Drop Cole Kmet. This is another thing that I did not get right this year, or at least it looks that way. I thought cole Comet would at least be able to give you some sort of floor, but he's giving you literally nothing, like quite literally nothing. After two games, justin Fields has fewer pass attempts than Dak Prescott. Yes, Dak Prescott, the guy who got hurt. In Week one, Chicago wide receivers have totaled just seven receptions. That's the same number of catches that Cooper Cup had during an eight minute span on Sunday against the Falcons. Cole Comet cannot be rostered. He's only seen two targets and he didn't catch either one of them. His route participation is fine, but this is not a passing attack that you want to rely on for fantasy purposes. Chances are Cole Comet won't be anything more than a streamer this year, and even if he does emerge, it's probably gonna take some time for people to catch up to that anyway, because the trust just won't be there immediately. So I think that you can safely drop him. Add Evan Ingram. So far of the season, Evan Ingram is top ten in routes run, top twelve and fantasy points, and top fifteen and expected fantasy points. He's playing on a team that will likely trail a good bit this year. Despite what Week two showed us. He's a seventeen point six percent target share. He's a worthwhile ad for anyone who needs a tight end aka anyone who has cole Kmet Add the New York Giants defense. So you could go in a couple of different directions this week with your streaming defense, but I'm gonna shout out the Giants. Maybe you want to use the Seahawks against the Falcons, that's fine, but I'm gonna go to the Giants this week because they're playing at home. They're two and a half point favorites. FanDuel Sportsbook has this game with a load thirty nine and a half point over under and they're facing Cooper Rush, So I think that the Giants are the right kind of process play. That's gonna know for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Remember to go to Late Round dot com where you can find the link to the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. It's been a really active community and I've been producing weekly rankings, rest of season rankings. We have live stream q and as and much more. Definitely check it out lateround dot com. Thanks for listening to everyone. I'll talk to you tomorrow.