2025 Mega Divisional Round Preview with Seth Payne and Ollie Connolly

00:00:04
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where honking season can commend. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm here the Chris Westleyan Podcast studio with my friends Patrick, Clayboun and Jordan Rod Brieg. Look, we've been honking on a lot of previous shows all season with three of us. Sometimes we got Steve Weis with us. We've got a couple of special guests today. But this is really my dream to just only have four games to talk about and yet actually make the preview show longer. Yes, because as in depth as possible to give these.

00:00:36
Speaker 2: Games the attention that they deserve, not the distraction of all these you know, ref raft, not that, not that the excess games that we get and we get to discuss and talk about. But we can focus, especially for me and all the all the folks out there with the attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

00:00:52
Speaker 3: Shout out to us. We can focus on just a few games at a time.

00:00:56
Speaker 1: Shout out to Patrick.

00:00:57
Speaker 4: I know, I know the desk is already.

00:01:01
Speaker 1: Let's not waste any time. Let's lay out the plan. We made the controversial statement going into last week that we thought maybe wild Guard Weekend is now superseded Divisional Round is the best weekend in football, and it was pretty great, I gotta say, especially this season where I think more teams than usual have a chance to both make the Super Bowl and win the Super Bowl. Like realistically, you never know. I know Patrick at all. I know, but you look at the seeds that have made it. Patrick, show me the shockers. It's been a minute, but this is the year where don't show me them. Phrasing AFC wide open, NFC maybe less. So we'll get into that. Oli Connolly is going to join us for the entire NFC and all the seth heads out there, those are fans of Seth payin. We'll enjoy our preview of Texans Patriots. He's going to join us for that. Three of us. We're big boys and girls. We can handle the Broncos and Bills by ourselves. But let's just bring in Ollie. Let's not waste any more time. He's over in Manchester and he's been grinding film and he made a request. He wanted to talk about the Ben Johnson Sean McVay battle. Actually you didn't, but I'm sure you're you're fine with.

00:02:15
Speaker 5: No that was thrust upon me. But I was delighted to get the call. I'm happy to do you with everyone.

00:02:20
Speaker 1: I do like mixing up the different members of now the the NFL Daily Extended universe. I think this is your first show with Patrick and or no, not with Patrick because he did it last week, but with me with Jordan, And what a better way to start than two of the foremost McVeigh you know, Tree Ben Johnson acolytes in the game. I'll start with you, Jordan. Yeah, where do you look at the Rams and this matchup where they're three and a half point favorites, they're in Chicago. It's going to be the NBC crew on the call. Three go and collins Worth see, I can do your Patrick like, let's go.

00:03:01
Speaker 3: If not that, what do I no?

00:03:03
Speaker 4: I'd me in the first half, not gonna lie.

00:03:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there's only four games and we got to it. When you think when Sean McVay is looking at this, this bear's outfit, what do you think he is focusing on? First? He can take advantage of.

00:03:15
Speaker 6: It well, the position that usually you can tell he's the most mad at because he leaves him in the garbage time minutes of games that don't count for anything. His corners and the way that this defense has been susceptible to the explosive pass play, especially when a quarterback can create. And I think that's one of the glaring weaknesses on a RAMS team that really does not have many of them, is the fact that the explosive play on the perimeter, even in the middle of the field. Their safeties are very good, their corners are thin, They've been.

00:03:45
Speaker 4: Depleted all season.

00:03:46
Speaker 6: A Kella Witherspoon again is hurt, so lack of depth there. But when Caleb Williams can can move and change his spot and move his launch point around, and especially if he's doing a scrambled drill, which you never know when one of those is gonna happen, they are extremely vulnerable. Jacoby Brissette and the Arizona Cardinals were cooking them, I mean Quentin Lake's back, but it still was not the best showing for this for this defense. Last week against the Carolina Panthers.

00:04:15
Speaker 2: The concern for me, especially after seeing the Colston Loveland game that he just had, they.

00:04:20
Speaker 1: Were kind of a doubter. Early in the theater, there was a moment where you were kind of mocking the people who who liked Loveland over Tyler Warren, which by the way, is ali at it. You didn't know that I.

00:04:30
Speaker 2: Took an early victory lap because I felt like I had my tight ends ranked pretty good. Harold Fannon was was yet in the league on fire. I took an early victory lap. It was too early. I will refrain from doing so in the future. Thank you for reminding everybody.

00:04:43
Speaker 4: Welcome to the preview show.

00:04:47
Speaker 2: But seeing you know Curl and Kinchins as well as Durant and Lake, the size discrepancy against Terroll McMillan against Jalen Cocher, it was a circumstance that kept coming up. And now I look at a similar matchup where you get DJ Moore as well as Loveland and Romodunze, where they're not escaping the nature of the physicality right that these guys can provide in a similar situation over on the defensive side, where you have a couple of very talented and physical corners who make plays on the ball, where I think there's no better preparation for playing the Bears for the Rams than playing the Panthers twice late in the season. So like credit to Sean McVay for somehow orchestrating the schedule to make that happen. I don't think he did too much power randomness of the way that these things play out, But I think that's a pretty good warm up to play this Bears defense in a game that I think is going to be in the thirties for both teams.

00:05:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, Ali, what do you see out of like a dounze is back. They're closer to their fully formed offense. Obviously, you know they move the ball well. It felt like almost in the first half of the game the biggest problem was just their defense couldn't get on the field. Do you think I think they are well set up now to take advantage of what the Rams have going on in the secondary.

00:06:06
Speaker 7: Yeah.

00:06:06
Speaker 5: I think what Jordan said nailed it perfectly is the best will just force to tackle both in space and challenge your physicality at the line of scrimmage. Is a primitive player that is the kind of a big chunk of the offense, and then you stretch you out by doing that soff way, they can kind of rip it to the middle of the field, and I just worry to get after the Bears offense, you have to send some kind of primitive pressure the corners have to be involved attacking on early downs. That does even at the peak of the powers of those players who I think are pretty flawed, that's not what they do best. Asking Emmanuel Forbes to stick his nose in there ten, twelve, fifteen times a game is not really how he wants to be playing the sport. So that would give me big, big concern if I was Sean McVay.

00:06:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a thank you, by the way, that made my entire month.

00:06:46
Speaker 1: But also this was she's easily won over.

00:06:50
Speaker 6: Well, you know I can't. I can't get it in here in the superos Oh please, you know No. It's It's interesting too because this pass rush I don't think it's lived up to the potential that it showed last season yet so far, and we've seen.

00:07:03
Speaker 4: It in really positive flashes.

00:07:06
Speaker 6: This young group that has come together and then adding Punaford to the mix obviously has helped their run game, but that's been a little shaky as well without Quinton Lake sort of organizing things as the green dot player. Now he's back, But this this pass rush group never even at their best last season. They never were good at getting actual pressure on a quarterback that can move, and in fact, sometimes it would come back to bite them because teams would start to bait different types of pressure and then flush the quarterback immediately and create down the field that way. And I think that's where as talented as this group of pass rushers are. And that's part of the reason the Rams did not invest more into their secondary this offseason.

00:07:46
Speaker 4: They didn't trade for anybody.

00:07:48
Speaker 6: They didn't, you know, other than acquiring Emmanuel Forbes last season, have not made significant investment in those perimeter players because they believe their pass rush was going to solve a lot of those problems. And in a little bit of skill they've been great. Sometimes they've taken the ball away, but a little too often this season that pressure is not as effective as you would like it to be.

00:08:09
Speaker 5: And that's the real challenge of facing the Bears, because you get caught in this bind of what is the correct schematic approach, which is basically all our assault attack mode is how you get after the Bears. This is what do we actually want to do on what fits our players, and do we just leave ourselves exposed if we go in full engaged attack mode and our guys just can't live up to that stand. I think that's the bind that Shula's going to have go again spend Johnson, where if he just commits all out to the blitz, he's then leaving those guys one on one in islands. But that truly is the way to impact Caleb in the pocket, disrupt his rhythm, force him to move to throw, which is where he has the wall throws. But he also can be a bit scatters shot. You might throw the ball your way, and it's trually the only way to slow down the rung game that has been laid out now by Brian Flores by the Pack of three Times. You have to send heat early and often, and you can shut the rung game down. You force Caleb into third and lungs, You force him to hold the ball and then he might just throw one or two your direction.

00:08:57
Speaker 1: And you're tough on the Rams, And I have the same general feeling watching them. It is it's kind of like I'm tougher on the Patries because when you look at the numbers in the end, like the Rams are the fourth most efficient defense in the league according to DVWA. They're ahead of Denver and Philly and some some teams. You think of as like the great defense in the league. And yet I agree with you that is my experience that the pass rush is maybe just a little inconsistent and one thing that really stuck out to me, And I know it's a vastly superior pass rush to what the Packers had last week, but that Bears offensive line dominated like pass protecting. They they're an underrated group. They just lost their left tackle though there was a reason why they were playing Trapelial, which we didn't really mention that that he is now not just out for the season, but it's going to have a long recovery of a tele attend and injury for him. So they bring in Deo Benedict, who was you know, playing for much of the season this year at left tackle, who then had an injury but got healthy. He had its job, you served for a reason. I don't think he was playing great earlier, and I am wondering, like if that offensive line can hold up enough that that's such a big bonus. Then again, like when you look at these two quarterbacks, they're kind of opposite in that Like if you look at Caleb Williams's stats against pressure, it's not that he's better against pressure, but compared to because no quarterbacks are better against pressure, but compared to other quarterbacks. Like you look at the advanced metrics, he's there, Like in the top tens, he's right around where Stafford is, whereas Stafford is you know, all world MVP when he doesn't face any pressure, and Caleb is way lower, you know, by like the numbers. He's almost like a below average quarterback in some ways when he's not pressured. So they do have a quarterback in Caleb Williams who I think is playing his best ball right now and is relatively you know, well positioned to handle the pressure that the Rams bring.

00:10:49
Speaker 2: And ultimately when they when they do bring pressure, what it does is you limit Caleb's options and sometimes with limited options is going to be the guy that steps over to find and throws a ball seeing eye in between four defenders and the Bears win the game like that. That's the situation that I think that's at play is when you have a quarterback with the athleticism to deal with that in handle that, not that he's not capable of going through everything with four man rush and picking up things because Ben Johnson's gonna put him in in that situation, but when it has to be now, Ben Johnson is giving him those now options and it almost simplifies things for him to the extent where you normally have to wait until somebody's six seventh to eighth season to get to that.

00:11:34
Speaker 3: Ben Johnson has that available for the quarterback right now.

00:11:36
Speaker 1: He's elite at throwing the ball away? Is he the best like guy I've ever seen at throwing the ball? Because that is I'm trying to figure out, like his development and what makes him special. It's obviously the special throws, but to me, it's kind of the combination of preventing sacks, preventing turnover worthy plays. For the most part, I know he's had. He's had somebody. It's quite low with the big plays, with the throwaways and the scrambling, and I think, like, I want to see more of the scrambling. He's such a good athlete. What have you seen Ali just out of his development where maybe he is different now than he was in September, And how that can play out in this game against the Rams.

00:12:17
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's really one of the strangest development arcs where all the difficult stuff looks so simple and basic for him. And then sometimes he just misses on wide open, easy throws, and they can be sure intermediate long whatever is will miss by yards on really basic throws. I think what he does more than almost anyone in the league at this stage of the season is he makes the bad stuff right, and he hits just enough of the pretty easy, open stuff. And there's an awful lot of it in that offense. By design, my guy's just screaming open, wide open over the field. But as Patrick mentioned, when you send pressure, it's not traditional pressure where maybe you're plus one and there's a free runner. He just makes guys miss all the time, or he bails out there at an angle, and he's so explosive and so quick to the sideline you just can't hustle over in time. Then someone else has to come down and creates a void for him to go and throw.

00:12:58
Speaker 7: So he just.

00:12:59
Speaker 5: Turns messy, bad stuff into not just like good fine we survived plays into some of the greatest throws. I think of a seat in my life.

00:13:06
Speaker 1: I rewatched that fourth and when I did go get back to watch all of Caleb Williams his throws and everything on all twenty two, I kept rewatching the fourth and eight, like in every possible and I just kept thinking, how sick Isaiah McDuffie, Not that he's probably gonna watch that, because like it is, it is Caleb's special speed that makes this possible. But McDuffie starts diving or loses his feet like going after him earlier that he really needed to and and it kind of is Caleb's unique ability to make that throw, but also just to get away from mcduf there was no he had no business getting away from McDuffie on that play, much less making the throw. Let's actually listen to Ben Johnson. You know, he's obviously gotten very close with Caleb and talking about how he coaches him in the big moments when Caleb's played his best.

00:13:56
Speaker 8: There's not a whole lot you need to say to him on the sideline, you know, we just make sure we're on the same page in terms of what the situation is and what we need to accomplish and how quickly we need to accomplish it. But beyond that, he doesn't. It's not like he needs a pet palker, a raw raw or anything like that. He's ready to go and been saying it all along. He just he rises to the occasion time and time again. It's it's truly impressive to see a young player like this be so clutch.

00:14:24
Speaker 4: Yeah, I love that.

00:14:24
Speaker 6: You could see that Ben Johnson has also sort of adjusted his rigidity as a play caller, and Caleb has had to learn and develop as well, obviously, but it's very clear that those two met somewhere in the middle in order to try to get the best out of each other. And when we go on to the topic of play calling, Allie, I have a question for you, because last week against Carolina, there was this theory that was kind of being float around and you could see it when you watch the game. There's a little bit of force feeding happening to DeVante Adams where even minus Terrence Ferguson who was inactive with the hamstring, and that they still had their three tight ends that they've used most of the seas and up and there was not a lot of thirteen personnel being used. Instead, it was a lot of you know, Davante Adams and Pooka and a lot of misthrows to Davante Adams, and Sean McVeigh even admitted Monday and talking to him that you know, he wanted to get his shots up, Like he was talking to Davante about just getting back into the mix and getting his shots up. So very rare by the way that you hear a coach being like, yeah, we kind of force fed him a little bit. So my question to you is this, and I of course rambled and asking it, but the multiplicity of this Rams offense, we know it's there. They can play in all kinds of personnel and mix things up with size against the defense. What will work the best against the Bears defense.

00:15:45
Speaker 5: That's tricky to say, and I hope that's not too much of a cop out, but the best completely shape shifted personalities last week took a lot like the one they're going to face this week. Now, that becomes tricky when you throw out the curve bowl and you lay it down on tape for the greatest mind to go to face all season long on offense. Do you go back to what you've done all season weights had all that tape, or do you stick with the plan you had against the Packers, which was bespoken distinctive to the Packers, but overlay's pretty nicely to face against the Rams. The thing I always come back to to the rams and you see just in game is as you mentioned, they can just pivot to whatever they want mid stride.

00:16:17
Speaker 7: It's like drive to drive.

00:16:19
Speaker 5: Who do we want to be? What's the right answer? And I thought the Panthers game was maybe the most telling one, whereas you mentioned, it's no an awful lot of the thirteen personnel to open up with, and then as the game goes along they crank back up to it. Going into the fourth quarter. It's like, let's just lean on what's got us, hear what will work, and we'll get back into the big boys stuff to try and close the game out. So they can just have an ability to pivot with, you know, superstar personnel, and the feel, frankly at all these positions that no one else in the league really has that kind of variability. Everyone is still pigeon alled in. This is our system and set up. We've got different presentations, different ways of doing it. They are the only ones who can kind of whole class say we are spread eleven personnel, stap it to the point guard will pick you apart, or we get to thirteen personnel and get our explosive from that package too. There's no one who can really get to the sideline, And so this just isn't working entirely. Let's completely change the offense on the floor.

00:17:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned the bespoke game plan by the Bears last week, Like what what did you see out of them? And they did look different And it is one of the reasons why a recurring theme on this podcast this week is like, are we really sure Jeff Hathley is like a great defensive corner because you know the defensive coordinator who impressed me last week? It was Dennis freaking out. Although I'm not saying he should be a head coach, I guess no one's doubting that he's a very effective No, he's a very effective defensive coordinator. But I thought he did a good job. Like, how do you think he should approach it? Because look, they still don't have a pass rush. Obviously, they've blitzed like crazy. They're going to be without t J. Edwards, their linebacker, who's an important player for them in this game. Like, how would you want to attack them if you were Dennis Allen wild players to.

00:17:53
Speaker 5: Be how do you attack a team that can get big and run the ball down your throat when you don't have a great run defense. How defended team you can get spread when you can't really cover or pressure. It's like a pretty difficult riddle thin to answer. Against the Packers, he'd been going so wild with all the blitz stuff, and he just backed off completely against the pack as they played more shell covers. He played a bunch of cover three in that game, and when they did blitz, it was really like design the stuff built to attack specifically what a faults in the Packers group. I think that should have a bunch of the second half. They just couldn't figure anything out. I think having that kind of desire a blitz plan against McVeigh and the Rams is just difficult. They're not as segmented an offense as the Packers are. We can get a pretty good field based on formulation and personnel what might be coming your way, So it's just tricky to be built in that similar kind of way. I imagine if I was him, I would just say it's kind of bast the wall. Let's just go for it and let's just sell all out and that's.

00:18:46
Speaker 7: The best we can do.

00:18:46
Speaker 5: And Patrick made a great point earlier about when you blitz that way it's not just about affecting the pocket and getting as much quick pressure as you can. It's trying to wash out as many eligible receivers as possible, force them to keep more and more guys in force the decisions to quicken up. That becomes against the rems, because the two decisions could just be Devonte and Puka, and if you want to one against those guys, it's pretty tricky. But if Allen does blit to that rate, he turns it from a pass rush game where he just doesn't have the horses into more of a coverage game where there may be a bit more variability. He's better on the back end than he is up front, so I imagine he's going to kind of release the hounds in this one.

00:19:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the spot where Dennis Allen would like to play.

00:19:20
Speaker 3: That's what the spot where the Bears fans would like to play.

00:19:23
Speaker 2: Is putting these corners who have led the league in interceptions despite having one of the lowest.

00:19:27
Speaker 3: Pressure rates in the next gen stats era great like.

00:19:32
Speaker 2: The way that they've been able to turn the ball over with no pass rush whatsoever is incredible. And so if you're doing that versus seeing Higbee and the tight ends. It can get involved with Kien Williams and Blake Korum in the run game. If that is, yes, it's DeVante, Adams, Pook and Nakua. But considering the options, it may be the best option for the bear.

00:19:52
Speaker 7: No.

00:19:52
Speaker 1: Kevin Dotson last week really good guard for the Rams and all pro consideration. Got some votes. I don't think he got it, did he in the end?

00:20:02
Speaker 4: Oh he got some votes.

00:20:03
Speaker 1: He got some votes. Didn't get it, but Sean McVay expressed optimism that he would be returning this week, so that helps out the running game. It's supposed to be extremely cold, like under twenty degrees wind chill, maybe you know, around zero or anything. You know, it's enough where like that's going to affect the game. I was thinking last week, how what an advantage it is to have Caleb Williams. It's funny to think about him coming out and people were worried about like, oh, him going to a cold weather city. It's like, how about how about that arm travels in the cold and like you didn't really see that the weather impact. There was some wind that took a thrower to but him in Love were just firing it through the cold there, and you would think Matthew Stafford that would be the case for him. For whatever reason, it's a small ish sample sized. Stafford's cold weather numbers aren't like amazing. I am curious if you have any thoughts on that, and having watched them a lot, obviously most of those were played when he was playing on the road as a member of the Detroit Lions, which you know his play probably wasn't the biggest issue. Do you have any thoughts on that? And then the running game kind of getting stuck last week and like in a really surprising way, because to me that that feels like the easiest path towards like kind of dominating this game. I feel like either the Bears are going to win a crazy game or the Rams could just put it on.

00:21:26
Speaker 6: Well, And I think either way right because if the Swift and Manungai combination is effective against this Rams front that they rebuilt specifically to not lose games the way they did to Sa Kwon Barkley multiple times last season, then that's a huge swing point to me. But also on the other side, Blake corm and Kile rilins Kien Williams was coming back from being a little banged up, as is Blake Koram and not having Kevin Dotson in at gar at that right guard spot Justin Diditch, who I think I've said before all respect to Justin Didetisch, but we are the same height, and I hope.

00:21:58
Speaker 1: He doesn't sound that respectful to me.

00:22:00
Speaker 4: I hope he weighs more than me, but I'm not sure.

00:22:02
Speaker 6: And so like this is this is one of those things where you need to get your big guys back all up along this this offensive interior that they specifically rebuilt to run in the cold.

00:22:13
Speaker 1: Well, that can't be it. Now I've got a oh my god, they're going on draft.

00:22:21
Speaker 6: I mean I've I've talked to him in the locker room. Guys, I'm about five to nine.

00:22:24
Speaker 1: You know.

00:22:26
Speaker 2: They're they're doing them a favor on the roster. Yeah, if that's the case. But but I.

00:22:32
Speaker 6: Will say I will say that that's the That's the biggest key to me is getting that run game back up and going, because you know, you can take the Matthew Stafford cold weather, which is I think is the thing.

00:22:43
Speaker 4: They're talking about it a lot in Chicago.

00:22:44
Speaker 6: Media this week, but also like I also watched Matthew Stafford almost take.

00:22:50
Speaker 4: The the life out of all of.

00:22:52
Speaker 6: These Eagles fans in the snow uh two plays away from from winning that game in a in a sideway snowstorm last season. So I think it's like multiple things could be true. He has fumbled a lot and lost the ball and been intercepted a couple of times in an outdoor like windy or weird weather games.

00:23:08
Speaker 1: Hand size coming up big in cold weather and Drake may smaller hands and did have the fumbles the other night. Do you have any thoughts on justin diet itch before we move on to this game, Ali, I.

00:23:20
Speaker 5: Did not have that many thoughts and just indeed, I would say cold weather with a bad back. If the back's good, that's not great. Don't love that. My grandma would say cold weather, bad back, not great. The special team stuff in cold weather gets rough. That's where special team stuff usually shows up, maybe evens the playing field for the Rams. But they just have so many breakdowns all the time. It's not abating. It's an institutional failure. At this point, McVeigh doesn't care about it. He's trying to show he cares about it by firing someone in season for the first time. It's not fixed all the issues fixed some of them, and so that I think is a big point. If they have special teams, breakdowns, the bad weather, that's what you get into this flukey turnover game where I think the best can hang in it.

00:23:57
Speaker 1: Are you? Are you taking the Rams here? Not picking all these games? But why not? I'm gonna make you pick this one.

00:24:02
Speaker 5: Ali, It's a tough one way. Everything in my sensibility is saying. The Rams just make so much sense on paper. When I shut my eyes and picked like the NFL Films America's team, what does the documentary look like? I just have an image of like shirtless Ben Johnson, Caleb Willings on the poe Yamra Ra speeds Like that's what keeps coming to me when I shut my eyes at night, like a sadman. So it's something in me just says it's like Team of Destiny stuff with the Bears. So despite all intuition and facts, I will offuly pick the best.

00:24:32
Speaker 4: You know, Ali, I don't think you're alone.

00:24:34
Speaker 6: I think that image comes to a lot of people's minds when they shut their eyes at night.

00:24:37
Speaker 1: Wow.

00:24:37
Speaker 2: Wow, there's there's a lot of darkness to be drawn from obviously from shutting your eyes, but the world in general. If you shut your eyes and you see a positive image of a happy coach and the.

00:24:48
Speaker 3: Player and a fan base, that's you're winning. There's there's good stuff.

00:24:52
Speaker 6: I'm I got to pick the Rams because I have all year. But let me mark my words. This is a chaos game in waiting. I've seen too many of these things with that quarterback and that coach. This is a chaos game waiting to happen.

00:25:03
Speaker 2: This is also for everybody listening what Jordan says before the Rams score twenty one unanswered points.

00:25:08
Speaker 6: Yeah, by the way, but also what I said before they lose to the Panthers.

00:25:11
Speaker 1: You just say it in general. Yeah, I see maybe them going away that the that the the Rams are ready to play their best football. And the Bears, I mean, they had to catch a lot of breaks to be a faulty team. But you're right, and it is. It is the the capper of the entire weekend. This is the Sunday evening game, the timing a little different, the six thirty East Coast type of game. And speaking of you know, great news and winning. Justin diet Its on Instagram, the account is justin underscore.

00:25:42
Speaker 2: Big Daddy, Big Daddy Daddy.

00:25:45
Speaker 1: Okay, let's take a break. You can get Patrick's pick on game debut. Oh, how about that, You're not allowed to make the pick here, let's take a break like Herb Street.

00:25:55
Speaker 3: Well, you don't call it the game. So because of our borol quandaries.

00:25:59
Speaker 1: Now we'll be making all the pick on game debut. Check it out NFL Network Friday evenings. We never played game debut. Let's talk forty nine Ers and Seahawks after the game back on NFL Daily Saturday Night Cap game. I'm not gonna step on you do here past, because nobody does it like you did due he still are.

00:26:28
Speaker 3: Well, I'm back.

00:26:29
Speaker 2: I've returned after a one game absence. The San Francisco forty nine Ers are going back to Seattle where they started this improbable injury plague twenty twenty five season, where the Seahawks are a seven point favorite. After that demonstrative win to close out the twenty twenty five season over unders forty five and a half, Kevin Burkhardt and the ever improving Tom Brady are on the call, Greg Roosevelt.

00:26:53
Speaker 3: There were skeptics. Yeah, Tom's looking good.

00:26:55
Speaker 2: He diagrammed the dynamics of ballflight during the game expertly.

00:27:00
Speaker 3: It was great. But speaking of the game, how do you think.

00:27:04
Speaker 1: This will I'm struggling. I have the least amount to say I'm gonna be honest all this one. And maybe it's because they just played that, that's probably it. Maybe it's because, like the Seahawks have scored like thirteen points in each of these, it feels one sided. It is the most one sided at least in terms of the point spread, but you know, by a decent amount in this weekend where where it's seven and it just feels like, oh man, they lost Kitto, they lost you know, another big piece, and I feel like I should throw some of that week eighteen out. They were on back to back short weeks there. I know they're on a short week here again. But this this is the playoffs. The thing I want to see out of the forty nine ers that I think that they will learn from that first meeting Ali was you can't play with a constrictor on brock Purty. And I'm not saying like Kyle put it on him, but the Seahawks put it on him and his decision making put it on him. He didn't take a shot down the field in that game, literally didn't take one over twenty yards. That's not the brock perty I love. And it's not like it was effective on throws under ten yards. He was fifteen for twenty Okay, that's okay for sixty five yards in an interception. So not only were they not trying to throw it deep, but it was incredibly ineffective and they were completely dominated. I know it was thirteen to three, but the score could have been a lot worse. I thought the Seahawks offense played better than that final score said, it's by some measures, the worst performance of a Kyle Shanahan offense since he got there, and I don't think that will happen again. But I do think it's fair to say that they are a little overmatched personnel wise this week. Ricky Piersoll's status I think is important because they need as many weapons as they can get, and so we'll find out if he's going to be available. What do you think that they can do to kind of get out of what was a game long rut against Seattle in Week eighteen.

00:29:04
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's tricky. I think the coverage was outstanding from Seattle in that game in terms of the down the field stuff. It was also the highest blitz rate Mike McDonald's ever put in his career on second down. So he just felt like they had an unbelievable beat on what was coming from Shannahan, and they were able to kind of limit what Christy McCaffrey could do in the passing game in terms of his impact on the overall picture, how he could twist and contort the shell to allow him to cap everything over top. So you've got to read on someone and you've just got better personnel than everyone. It was pretty tough to try and find a solution. If anyone could do it, it's Kyle Shannon. I just think it's such a disadvantage that the only major advantage Seattle the Niners have sorry in any game is Kyle Shannon. I can out scheme anyone, probably not this guy. I think Mike McDonald can get him too, So I just I find it difficult to pick a path for the Niners in this one.

00:29:52
Speaker 1: Well, you just stepped into the sound we have planned without even knowing it. Let's actually listen to Kyle Shannon talk about the idea you have these teams knowing each other so well, you.

00:30:03
Speaker 9: Definitely can't overthink it. But it's also, at the same time kind of hard to overthink. Not anything has gone down since the last game. Well, they got to watch seventy or so plays of whatever we did versus Philly. But you know, we get in late whatever, and you know there's there's one game for us to watch, and that's the one that we all watched last week. So you only can watch us so much. We know each other very well. We played against each other a ton. The schemes even last time we played didn't change much on both sides as opposed to Week one, so I think both teams got an idea of exactly what to expect.

00:30:38
Speaker 6: I love it even more because it's it was a split too. Some of these iconic like Shanahan and McVeigh matchups, for example, they would always be you can't beat a team three times when you finally see each other in the postseason, and that was the Rams calling card during that Super Bowl run.

00:30:54
Speaker 4: You know this is we are lucky.

00:30:57
Speaker 6: First of all that we can see this clash of Titans, as Greg would say, in the postseason. In this way, I think one of the big swing points here is that Trent Williams will be playing in this game. I know they don't have George Kittle and so some of their blocking surface is going to be affected by that. But Trent Williams being a factor in at least trying to get this run game going, in settling in helping with it. In past pro where Patrick noted or before we started taping, Seattle is a little bit banged up there on the edges, this could be a huge swing point in terms of having Trent Williams to the best of his ability on the field in a must win game.

00:31:36
Speaker 3: The on all stats historically with Trent are incredible.

00:31:40
Speaker 2: I know it's fallen off in recent years as his health has kind of been the question there, but his performance and albeit against that side of the Eagles rush where yeah, they got a couple of pressures, but there's also several plays where the player that's lined across from Trent Williams might as.

00:31:56
Speaker 3: Well not even be involved in the game. And I think that his absence.

00:32:03
Speaker 2: Literally, like I think mentally, big deal impacts Brock to the extent where being concerned about him not being over there is a part of the process as well.

00:32:12
Speaker 3: But he added that.

00:32:13
Speaker 2: DeMarcus Lawrence situation, and there's there's reason to believe, right, there's reason to believe that these circumstances that led to that very low output. Obviously, Christian passing the ball back to the defender in the red zone was a big part of the score being in the way it did. And I recognized that the Seahawks offense could have been laid better, as you pointed out, Greg, but they ultimately didn't like that they beat them in Week one, And I think there's reason to believe where if you're the Seattle Seahawks, you want to avoid being Lon Hammond, right, the James Marsden character from the notebook.

00:32:45
Speaker 3: That is a pretty good guy. Right, great opportunity.

00:32:48
Speaker 1: I mean, you got a lot of blank stares for that one.

00:32:51
Speaker 3: Well, the parallels.

00:32:53
Speaker 1: Are here, yeah, but them stay with them.

00:32:57
Speaker 3: Those two were meant to be together.

00:32:59
Speaker 2: Oh, and a potential NFC championship game with Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan, Oh, they might be meant to be together. And so that's what the Seahawks have to do. They have to be better than Lon Hammond was in the number of the fam Nicholas.

00:33:15
Speaker 3: Sparks movie where spoiler alert, they both died.

00:33:18
Speaker 1: Oh shoot, I didn't know that. I thought it was a romance.

00:33:24
Speaker 3: I mean, it takes a while to get there, but you know.

00:33:28
Speaker 1: I mean, and as Kyle Shanaan famously said, none of us know we're going to be here next Sunday.

00:33:32
Speaker 3: If we're in a Nicholas Sparks book, you're probably not gonna make it.

00:33:36
Speaker 1: We literally could be here next Sunday because if that matchup happened, it'd be the five Seed Rams hosting the NFC Championship, kind of like the Texans have a chance, Well we'll talk about them in a minute, to host the AFC Championship. If it's it's Bills that's getting way ahead of it. I look at this Seattle team and I think like they are so perfectly built for this moment. I think the idea when you high Mike McDonald was essentially to be the Shanahan McVeigh stopper. He got that job, you know, in part because of having some proof of concept of that when he was in Baltimore. Brock Purty has not played his best games against the Seattle group, including in Week one where the biggest play of the game was a ball that he probably shouldn't have thrown, and I kind of forget exactly who it was, but someone like wrestled the ball away from Seattle who should have had the interception, and that was the game winning touchdown in a seventeen to thirteen game. That's tals stake. It's been the day.

00:34:32
Speaker 6: Who has not been bad in spelling George Kittle for multiple games this season?

00:34:37
Speaker 1: No, and like I think he is built to do it on that side. It's really the other side that, like to me, is more of an open box of like what is going to happen? What do you think is going to happen when Seattle has the ball? Ali the forty nine ers in that last game, again not to just go on it, but again Seattle wasn't played, Sin said they couldn't tackle anyone in that game, and another injury to keep an on his dire Brown, their safety got hurt against the Eagles, and so I think they're going to have a replacement there too. If you go back to that Week one game, by the way, it'd be about eleven or twelve different starters for the forty nine ers than they had back in Week one, So just a completely different team. Yeah.

00:35:17
Speaker 5: I mean, they can't tackle anyone period anyway unless it's the Eagles, and everyone knows what they're doing before the snap. So that's the problem. No matter what, I can't get over it. They have a twenty two percent pressure rate with a four man rush that is historically terrible for a playoff team. That felt to eleven percent against the Eagles. Again, not a real NFL franchise with the offense they're running. So it's just hard to get through a game with that kind of production. And you're only really betting on Sam Donald's speeding himself up and gagging the game away. That's kind of the bet you make going in. And Robert Salad deserves so much credit for the work he's done this year. They are tough, they are disciplined, they fly around, they hit everyone. But it's not as though he's the Warlock style of coach. He's going to come with all the crazy different disguises, try and freak you out with coverage and force interception. That way they line up and play that you can basically boocket that coverages by three. There's three different ones they run. You can get a pretty good sense on what it is before the snab So to just play that style straight up and not have unrelenting pressure, it's difficult to get through one postseason game, let alone a bunch, And so it would come down to I think Donald just kind of losing his mind, feeling pressure that's not there and throwing the ball away.

00:36:23
Speaker 6: And Seattle now has an answer if they start to fear that creeping in and they're running the ball. Their run game over through the month of December dramatically improved.

00:36:34
Speaker 4: It started to come together.

00:36:35
Speaker 6: It especially the two back system that they want to use, especially was on display in their last matchup against the forty nine ers, where they did quite adequately hide some of the deficiencies at quarterback, some of the panic that could have set in with some of those pure dropbacks when Robert Salad does show up, maybe a cloudier look in the back end. They just were running the ball. Clint Kubiak knows that that is just the way to work around any sort of unsettling moments that could happen for Sam Darnold, and their run game is finally coming to life in a way that they envisioned it would.

00:37:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of want I want to see how consistent that is because the matchup is great. They're averaging over one hundred and seventy yards on the ground the last three weeks and San Francisco they actually are healthy in the back end. Not Gyre Brown, but for the most part, that's kind of the secondary that they more or less expected to have coming into the season, and I think it's a it's a solid secondary. The problem is is yes, the pass rush, but but also the run defense too. Like you're gonna have Cleveland Ferrell out there, who you know back in the day, that's what that's what he was drafted for. But you know, it's been a while and it's Keon White and it's some overmatched rookies and if this Seattle offensive line is truly happening like that, to me is the most obvious path to them winning a Super Bowl. And certainly you would think that they would have the advantage like on the ground in this match.

00:37:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, and not only did try Cross get that deal, but he was able to to not play last week and have the buye uh as he recovers and to get back to attack this defense that really doesn't have a lot of tools to attack you with.

00:38:13
Speaker 3: But it's it's.

00:38:14
Speaker 2: Such a fun matchup, and I am I'm not as concerned Okay Donald propensity here. I don't think that's that's where things go wrong. I think, you know, Kyle talked about the the inability to overthink, but also that you can overthink. And I think Kyle Shanahan maybe has something in store for the Seattle Seahawks, or maybe.

00:38:37
Speaker 4: They're im Kyle's playing receiver.

00:38:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, just come out, just some surprise or used check out wie. I do think, you know, when when veterans talk about, you know, handling the bye week and all that stuff, they talk about like how hard you you need to go during that bye week and sometimes maybe like a young coach an organization that hasn't been through it, maybe UH could struggle there. What is your Donald concern level entering the playoffs in general and especially in this.

00:39:05
Speaker 5: Matchup, probably A five. I think he's the single biggest pivot player in the entire postseason picture, because if he is just okay and above water, I think they're the front runners. If he's good, they are the overwhelming favorites. Me. The roster is so stacked both sides of the ball, they can win a game in any way you want. If it's a rock fight defensively, they can do it. They have the talent to win a shootout. If it's just explosive play. For explosive play, they can go toe to toe of anyone. I think, as Jordan mentioned with the Run game, they can kind of win a grind out game now just lean into the run game if Donald's not there. So even if he's just okay, I think they should be the favorites to go and win all. If he does have a true meltdown where he's just perceiving pressure that doesn't exist, he starts throwing the ball away, that would be the concern. I would put that at about a five because I just don't have complete trust in him yet.

00:39:51
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that's a good way to put it, because his ceiling is so high in part because he's not afraid to throw it. Like the resilient from this guy, I think is exactly what you want if you know that the floor is that low, right, because you have to keep you have to keep playing, you have to wipe it. The way that he has been so good at just almost like the Men in Black like flash thing, like he just it's almost like he doesn't even remember it ever happened. And so I think that that's really important because you might have moments like that, they have more answers to, you know, settle him down when if he does have moments.

00:40:26
Speaker 4: Like that, but he also just wipes it, like he just forgets.

00:40:29
Speaker 6: And there's a great feature out right now my colleague Michael Sean Dugar, who just wrote a Seahawks book as well, in the Legion of Boom Era, about Sam Darnold and sort of the way that he tries to clear those things from his mind. I think that he's maybe one of the best quarterbacks who's going to be in this next round of the postseason at actually doing that, and it's a really really underrated gift to have.

00:40:50
Speaker 3: He's had to though, which is the problems that's so much trauma.

00:40:53
Speaker 1: Patrick Well, it's like I think like that, except he's just better. Yeah, but he's going to have to be a lot better.

00:40:59
Speaker 2: On seven point two percent of Sam's pressure dropbacks there was a turnover either an interception or fumble, is the highest rate in the NFL.

00:41:08
Speaker 3: So there is there.

00:41:09
Speaker 2: It is if the forty nine ers can and that's the biggest if in the postseason at this juncture, if this team that on to historic level cannot get pressure before somebody I guess falls down and they get to Sam maybe the ball.

00:41:21
Speaker 1: It doesn't even feel like it's an if. It's just not gonna happen. And uh, I'm leaving open a room for for brock In Kyle kind of as a as a tandem because because that is.

00:41:33
Speaker 5: Untunges, Yes, sont sleep Hunges is really really good. He is not George Kittle, and he doesn't give you the game same kind of threat in the past game as Kittle, which then springs the roong game because you're worried about him leaking out. But he destroys people in the rung game and that's really important to me. And he is pretty frisky and shifty at the top of the route. And I'm going all in on a big Jig Tunges game.

00:41:54
Speaker 2: Okay, the week one Jake Tung's game winning touchdown when we all had to google who he is.

00:41:59
Speaker 3: It was for shadowing to get to this point.

00:42:01
Speaker 1: And you said, you said on Blue Sky, believe you know that Kyle Shanahan deserves to be in the Hall of Fame in general, but the job that he's done specifically this year. And if you think about where the forty nine ers were kind of come into the year, the thought was a little bit like this is almost like a retrenchment year. It's very similar to what happened to the twenty four Buffalo Bills, and that they ended up being much better than people expected. And that's even before the injuries happened. This was supposed to be sort of a rebuilding ish year before the injuries happened. And so in a one game playoff. It's why the NFL is so great. You have an all time coach, you have a quarterback who's ceiling to me is sky high, like the very best of brock Purty. If you can get that for four quarters, he could just lose his absolute mind. Together with an all time Hall of Fame Christian McCaffrey, I'm not even gonna call him a running back, just a weapon like that, that is the route to making this interesting. And then the Seahawks in a close game, a situation they haven't been you know, in as a group, maybe feeling it a little bit more, and it's late. There is a little bit of the forty nine ers have a little bit of the same vibes of the Bears of like nobody expected us and it's all gravy.

00:43:12
Speaker 6: But don't forget about this one very important fact. Actually you brought it up earlier in this segment.

00:43:17
Speaker 4: Greg.

00:43:18
Speaker 6: It is a future Hall of Fame coach. It is one of the best coaches we've ever seen coach in this league. The way that he's coaching right now, the best of his career, facing the best challenger he's ever had.

00:43:31
Speaker 1: It's important. I love it. We're going to be doing this live on YouTube. We're going to be recapping the Saturday games. So that's the one coming up that we're going to talk about Buffalo and Denver and then San Francisco and Seattle. That's me and Nick Shook. And by the way, we've heard from the listeners who are like, where is it. First of all, you can you can find it on you know, tweeting it out and I'm putting it out on Blue Sky and so the links are there, but it's on the NFL feed and then you want to watch it later, you just scroll down on the NFL Daily page and it's under collaborations.

00:44:01
Speaker 4: But I know we got kind of promoted on people.

00:44:03
Speaker 1: Have been saying that they couldn't find it.

00:44:06
Speaker 3: Also NFL Daily YouTube.

00:44:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I mean.

00:44:09
Speaker 2: The search will take you. Google and YouTube have a great relationship. It's actually the same thing.

00:44:13
Speaker 1: So there we go, Allie, unless you have any big last points you want to make, uh, you hammered it home today. Enjoy enjoy your week on the Read Optional podcast. Everyone check out his substack as well, and enjoy the games. Thanks Ollie, Thank you guys. That was Ally Connelly from Manchester. We got great guests all show. After the break, you will hear us talking to Seth Payne, former Texans great back on NFL Daily. We hit the NFC and now it's time for one of my favorite annual moments on the podcast, the moment where the Houston Texans have made themselves nationally relevant enough to welcome in Seth payin.

00:45:08
Speaker 7: Oh, you set me up on that one, Greg, It's not even.

00:45:14
Speaker 1: True because we've had you every preseason two. We we love the Texans. We're in that. When I say we, I mean me, Patrick and Jordan, all card carrying members of the Seth Heads. We're just fans of what Seth Pain does. They're obviously the co host of pain and Pendergas down in Houston, but also has a great YouTube channel. And you made it. Although you're not going to Foxborough this weekend. You're staying home.

00:45:42
Speaker 10: No, no, no, I'm not going to Foxborough. I can't look listen. I picked the wrong week to get back on Twitter because I you know, I go through phases or I got I gotta streamline things. This is this is driving me insane that this somehow still even though we're in the playoffs now, and yet so much just us about the Patriots is like a debate of who should make the college football playoffs. And I see, like, wow, that's a quality loss right there. You haven't how many quality wins did the Texans.

00:46:11
Speaker 7: I don't care. I don't care. Both good teams I play each other. They've got strengths, they've got weaknesses.

00:46:17
Speaker 1: I agree with that. It was like the Texans haven't played a blank offense in a while, but the Patriots haven't played this even And then I also saw from one of my favorite Texans follows, which is an account called I think Houston Stressens or something like that. I like them. They were very upset that they saw the NFL dot Com picks and six out of ten picked the Patriots to win the game, And honestly, like they were aghast and they couldn't believe the level of disrespect and they were just shocked. They were like I thought everyone would know that, Texans, And I'm thinking, like, this is what we're taking for disrespect that our friend Grant Gordon and uh, you know whoever else is making those picks, Colleen Wolf that sixty percent of them are taking the Patriots. In case you're curious, Patch, well.

00:47:03
Speaker 3: It's the weight. It's the weight.

00:47:05
Speaker 2: So if there's one, all it takes is that amount of disrespect. If you hit that critical mass of disrespect, then you know that the team and the fan base can my extra hard and be motivated to within a football That's.

00:47:16
Speaker 10: What that's, right, Chips on shoulders is what we're about here. Yeah, Houston Stress. His handle is at Texans Commenter. He's he's a really good source from He's basically a part time producer for our show.

00:47:28
Speaker 7: Yeah, we'll never pay him. We'll never pay him.

00:47:31
Speaker 4: He wants that on the record.

00:47:33
Speaker 3: Hold up.

00:47:33
Speaker 7: Yeah, good to know.

00:47:35
Speaker 1: And these two teams they're trying to go where you know, they haven't been before. Obviously it's it's a unique situation for this Patriots team with such a young quarterback in a first year head coach in vaybel but for the Texan and I think this is true of it an AFC field where I divide up these four teams and I think they've got all about an equal twenty five percent chance to make the Super Bowl because I think maybe the teams where I give a little bit of an edge too or on the road, which is like just a small disadvantage. And I can't remember ever having any conference have a feel like that. Is there kind of a sense with this Texans team, which is on such a run after starting zero to three, that like, compared to the last couple of years, that the ceiling is a championship, that it is a little different this year than maybe the last couple of divisional rounds that they've made it to.

00:48:28
Speaker 10: It is, and you know, that doesn't mean there aren't some serious concerns and reservations about how complete the football team is. If they win a championship, it's going to be a defensive led championship and that's rare. You know, go back to the twenty fifteen Broncos or the Legion of Beams Boom Seahawks, and this team still doesn't even have some of those same elements. There's some things that have gotten better in the second half of the season offensively, as we watched Sheldon Rankins about to go go for a touchdown here that play, by the way, Sheldon Rankins absolutely destroyed the left guard.

00:49:02
Speaker 1: It was beautiful.

00:49:04
Speaker 10: That was the best part if you want. Yeah, so I get distracted by it. The whole thing is the offense is mediocre and they've had their moments. The offensive line has improved drastically, but it's because they were so bad last year and I'd say they're an okay offensive line this year. Can you ride a defense through the playoffs, you know, feasting on turnovers, scoring on defense, all those things, That's what I would be nervous about. But this defense is also capable of doing some really special things, and it makes it exciting. It's such an exciting defense to watch, and it's such a lovable group of guys that you just kind of you throw reason out the window a little bit and say, you know what, if there's anybody that can do it, it's this squad.

00:49:50
Speaker 3: Yeah. In the way that they do it.

00:49:51
Speaker 2: It becomes like a topic of conversation where the questions to Mike Vrabel this week are about, you know, the familiarity with Josh McDaniels and all of the crossover between the staff and the organizations, and Vrable's like, well, they play a pretty similar defense to the way that they've played it, and they're not trying to hide and disguise a whole bunch, which makes it fun to watch where you know, when you know when Hunter and Anderson are on the field, like the way that they are going to pressure and attack the quarterback, which is why we're glad that tourman. Folks, you know a little bit of the stakes and the circumstances. This is Monday Football crew, This is Buck and Troy Aikman. With New England being a three point favorite at home? Are they over under it's forty and a half. You feel like that's.

00:50:33
Speaker 1: Disrespectful, Well to to the Texans, clearly you.

00:50:37
Speaker 3: See it as disrespect I see it as motivation.

00:50:40
Speaker 1: Trying to the choice of crew is disrespect No, No, the line.

00:50:45
Speaker 3: I appreciate you.

00:50:46
Speaker 2: Checking there because Greg is going to take you know, maybe a swipe at the crew. But I do think the line is to generate the most action and the most income for the gambling institutions, but just in terms of the way that they play. Love to see it, George, I am concerned about this Jake Andrews situation because it's not just It's not just last week. There's been some adventurous Texans snaps all season. There's been like accidental touchdowns won the CJ. Stroud scored where you wonder there was a bounce pass snap to CJ.

00:51:16
Speaker 3: Stroud. It seems like that kind of hilarity for both teams because.

00:51:20
Speaker 2: We know Drake may can hold onto the ball against some long edge rushers that are going to get the ball out, where the hilarity made aside the game and both teams are prone to do it.

00:51:29
Speaker 6: Yeah, this is going to be a fascinating matchup to me because both of these teams have similar strengths and the Texans have one glaring weakness where the Patriots have it as a strength in terms of their passing game, and yet the Houston Texans defense and pass rush specifically might nullify that to where this is good on good defense playing each other. This is going to be a clinic in teams that do not miss tackles. As Greg mentioned the other day, it's also kind of strange that this both of these defenses for as solid as they're playing. And I've been on the record many times Seth saying that the Texans defense is my favorite defense in the league because they know that they're not hiding anything from you. They're just better than you and like they and they act like it, and they are joyful. I was in that locker room when they were here in Los Angeles, and I had the best time. It was so much fun talking to those guys. They're such good guys and like, so this to me is like the Houston Texans. If they can neutralize Drake May enough and get to him enough to force these little underneath concepts, then you don't even get a shot to exploit the weakness of this Texans defense, which actually, strangely a little bit susceptible to the explosive pass play.

00:52:40
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's that's the big one.

00:52:41
Speaker 10: If you had asked me, Okay, what are you nervous about in any given week with the Texans defense, they're you know, they're top five, top three in just about every major statistical category explosive passes or explosive plays allowed. They're around the middle of the pack, so it's not like they're awful at it, but that is one of the things that they're not top notch at. And the interesting thing is that a lot of them come because of blown coverages. It's not necessarily because of physical mismatches. It's because guys don't sort things out properly. That's where it gets really interesting when you think about the Josh McDaniels dynamic and being able to watch anything that's flummexed the Texans. Sometimes it's just been that Kamari Lassiter has been out of the game and then everything falls apart on that side of the field. But I think that Josh McDaniel's understanding how we might be able to dial up some deep shots, but that at the same time provide the protection and the time to do it. And that's where I think Drake May's running ability comes in, not in his ability to run.

00:53:44
Speaker 7: For positive yardage, because obviously.

00:53:46
Speaker 10: You can do that, but in the designed run game, which you know we've seen them do. I was just watching the Bills game. I'm only through the first half, so I assume that works out would.

00:53:56
Speaker 7: Swell for the early on. Drake May has that designed run.

00:54:02
Speaker 10: Last week they ran a little or is a couple of weeks ago whenever, sometime in the last couple of weeks they ran like a veer option in short yardage, that kind of stuff in using it to set up play action or just to take a little bit of pepper off the edge rushers. I think that's something that Josh McDaniels is going to scheme up this week. Some of the misdirection in the backfield can can be a weakness or at least at times some of the bad moments for either Danil Hunter or Will Anderson.

00:54:26
Speaker 7: That's one way to get them.

00:54:27
Speaker 10: Yeah, you know, I'm not saying you can do it consistently or it's a huge weakness or anything, but it's you know, if you try to double team them both and you got three guys out on routes and it's it's hard to spring up play that way.

00:54:38
Speaker 1: They've been, you know, reticent to use Drake May like that all season. Everyone's kind of been calling for and I think that Bill's game you point out that the very play you even point out was actually I think a turning point where it was like, Okay, maybe they're doing the Josh Allen thing that they did when Josh Allen was young in Buffalo. It's like, once you get close to the very end in the biggest games, now we start, you know, break mess out. And I think they're going to have to because the physical mismatches in terms of just pure talent in terms of the receivers, and keseh On Booty is underrated and Stefan Diggs that's a great revenge game. Angle also a revenge game for Jake Andrews by the way, for former former Patriot. Uh, you know it's gonna be locked coming back. You just think it's such a mismatch. Let's actually listen to a clip I saw on the Texans you know, twitter feed this week of just the defensive backs, which I just thought like gave a feel to the spirit of this incredible Texans secondary.

00:55:39
Speaker 7: Let me tell you we.

00:55:40
Speaker 2: Really got the best TV though they can't my message.

00:55:45
Speaker 7: Remember, hold let.

00:55:46
Speaker 3: Me tell you so we zero for zero paths.

00:55:57
Speaker 1: For whom pig six he said, we that is Kabari Lassiter and uh, Jalen Petree, Derek Stingley and Caden Bullock. Kalen Buock Uh there as well, and actually I would recommend everyone watched the whole thing because we couldn't play a whole minute of it. But they are delightful and they might be the best secondary that we've seen since that no Fly zone in Denver.

00:56:27
Speaker 7: Yeah.

00:56:28
Speaker 10: Well, the interesting about that video too is you see four guys there right, and you think, okay, well they're in nickel a bunch. They got five defensive backs on the field. Where's the fifth guy? Nobody knows. Nobody knows who the safety opposite Kalen Block is. From week it started off, it was going to be Jimmy Ward, then it was going to be C. J. Gardner Johnson, then it was going to be Jalen Read the draft pick, but he got injured and we got Miles Bryant, We've got uh, at least five different guys have played that other safety position. And again going back to Josh McDaniels and trying to figure out how do you exploit the rotating crew of safety opposite Caleon Bullock. That's that's one thing that I think that Josh McDaniels might really be looking hard at.

00:57:06
Speaker 6: Seth because, uh, they're going to go back to this Steelers tape and one of the few positive plays that the Steelers had was doing exactly that. The second Jalen Reed left the game. Unfortunately due to that injury, they sent DK across the middle of the field protected just long enough to exploit that deep that intermediate slash deep middle because the corners they don't travel. They pass them off. I think very well, they passed their coverages off very very well. But when you don't have that safety in the communication chain, he sudden change coming into the game as a substitute, or maybe he's just not you know, quite up to up to the standard based on all the people that were supposed to be playing in front of him. You know, that's that's a problem. That's the exact little spot on the field.

00:57:48
Speaker 4: You look at the heat chart.

00:57:49
Speaker 6: Patrick and I were geeking out over the next Gen SAT's heat chart. That's exactly that area right there where that safety is supposed to carry on that communication chain and help is supposed to be there on these like digs and daggers. If they can protect Drake May long enough, that's something to be very very cognitive.

00:58:07
Speaker 4: I just don't think they can protect Drake May long enough to get to those plays.

00:58:11
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's the beauty. I mean, that's the fun of this defense.

00:58:13
Speaker 10: And I look, I go into every game terrified of every opponent, like in a good the healthy and appropriate amount of fear. And I was trained by Tom Coughlin for the best of them. And so obviously the Texans are underdogs in this game. So like every like every defense or every offense anywhere on any football team, they've got their weaknesses. But the one thing that they do do a great job of is they make up for their bad plays with tackles for a loss with sacks and then the run after the catch has been it's really been one of the biggest improvements that Texans defense has made to get to this point where they are now Compared to where they are last year. They were not a good tackling football team in twenty twenty three, in twenty twenty four. They are a very good tackling team now. And it's really taking them to that next level where all right, instead of instead of third and two because a guy got five yards extra after the catch, they're snuffing things out and that's you know, it's gonna be a challenge versus these guys and the Stephan Diggs. Honestly, Darrell Taylor, Darell Taylor was signed by the Patriots this week. He was a defensive end for the Texans. He was on the roster on and off for the season this year, and people.

00:59:26
Speaker 7: Said, oh, there he goes.

00:59:27
Speaker 10: There goes verybel trying to get that institutional knowledge from the Darrell Taylor. All right, all right, great, listen Stefan Diggs. Stepan Diggs was here last year and Stefan Diggs was everything you would want in a veteran receiver. He was out there working with the young guys, working with the defensive backs, talking to him before and after practice and everything. And Stefan Diggs is a smart football player. So I'm not as worried about the Darrell Taylor cloak and dagger game or anything. I do think that Stefan Diggs can have some good notes for Josh McDaniels on exactly what he thinks the weaknesses of the players or the scheme or how they're communicating and all that goes.

01:00:04
Speaker 1: And look, Josh McDaniels and Rake made. They they love throwing in the middle of the field, they love throwing the intermediate routes. They love cooking up ways to get like Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper and really anyone over the middle of the field, but even the running backs and like there there should be some, you know, ways to pick on them. But I do have a hard time imagining Will Campbell and Jared Wilson, especially handling the left side of that offensive line. I'm not saying I'm off Will Campbell island here, but it was a rough It was a rough Monday night. And you know.

01:00:39
Speaker 6: That's just I was gonna clo.

01:00:41
Speaker 1: The whole like he might be a great Hall of Fame guard. Started popping in my head a little bit in the middle of that game last week, especially knowing that he's gonna be having a face Will and Anderson this week.

01:00:52
Speaker 10: Well, you know, one of the things that you go back to the Bills game, the Texans playing the Bills, and the Texans had a great game.

01:00:59
Speaker 7: They had eight sacks in that game.

01:01:00
Speaker 10: And they kept the spy on Josh Allen pretty much all the time.

01:01:04
Speaker 7: I think one of the differences in facing.

01:01:06
Speaker 10: The Patriots is that you know, Drake May has weapons on the outside and he knows how to use them, so it's harder to subtract guys out of your coverage the way they could versus Josh Allen because the Bills just don't have that many receiving threats. That's really, you know, we talked about the some of the weaknesses or things that aren't you know, awesome for the Texans. They do a really good job contained pass rushing. There have been times in the second half and in the fourth quarter, especially where they've been doing a great job contained pass rushing all game long, keeping the quarterback in the pocket. But then there have been instances where Baker Mayfield on fourth and ten converted. Trevor Lawrence had a long scramble at the end of the first game that almost put them into field goal position, which annoyingly against the Jaguars, that line to make is the fifty yard line because of cam Little, and then you know cam Ward had a run late justin Herbert, So being able to contain Drake may for four quarters, not just the first three quarters, and then all of a sudden he converts one a third and long in the fourth quarter. If it's a close game, that's really, you know, it's just it's hard to maintain your pass rush lanes all the time.

01:02:14
Speaker 7: They're really really good at it most of the time.

01:02:17
Speaker 10: It's just they have great Like any defense is gonna there's gonna be opportunities at times for Drake may.

01:02:21
Speaker 1: I'm curious about which of the two phenomenons we saw in the playoff games from these two teams holds up in terms of the running offense for the Texans, I know you were impressed with Nick Kayleye game, the offensive line of the Texans and the game plan that they had and the way they were able to execute what he Mark's having a career high in the playoffs, and whether this Pat's run dye, which has been all over the place this year for the first ten or eleven weeks, they were getting way too much credit of like no one's had over seventy five yards against him, But a lot of it was was game script and the fact that you know, it wasn't all just talent. But they fell off a cliff. We're one of the worst run defenses in the league. Down the stretch. They get yet Robert Splaine back, who is absolutely crucial to their run defense. They get Milton Williams back, they get Harold Landry back, and they were awesome against the Chargers. So I'm kind of curious, you know, like which which of these two phenomenas, because that would really help out CJ. Stroud if they can get what he marks and Nick Chubb going this week.

01:03:20
Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly, And Seth was just talking about the quarterback being a threat in the run game.

01:03:24
Speaker 4: I'd like to see CJ.

01:03:25
Speaker 6: Stroud move with more confidence and actually pick up those gimme yards when he sees them versus panicking like you did this past week. The run game that I think, versus run game versus run defense, you know, it's hard because neither of them have been consistent. I think that when you have a change up option between Nick Chubb and Woody Marx functioning at its best, that to me is something that can sustain versus maybe being as up and down as the Patriots defense has been against the run. And like I said, even when they were great against the run, still susceptible to the explosive rush play. We saw that in a couple of matchups early on. What I do think though, is that the Texans, to me and just you know, I test, they don't do a ton of disguise for their run game. And I think that you're just too smart on the Patriots defense. You just you're going to be able to read your keys and not get moved out of your gaps.

01:04:18
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's this This matchup this week is interesting because there's, you know, some scheme similarities to what they saw at least on the front against the Steelers. And I was nervous about the Texans offense going into that Steelers game because they've got big, strong, physical defensive linemen and that's that's been that's been kryptonite to the Texans offensive line at times this year. So it was really encouraging to see what they were able to do and the fact that the run game started to bite more and more as the game went along, guys started really getting some movement. That was really really encouraging. And it's something that they've gotten better at over the course of the season. They've done a good job compared to last year of limiting negative plays. You know, last year, Joe Mixon was getting tackled in the backfield, like out of every three times he touched, the re least hit in the backfield. They've done a much better job of that. The guy that I like, honestly I did not expect to spend a half hour today watching Corey Durden the nose tackle for the Patriots.

01:05:13
Speaker 4: I had a great game former Los Angeles ram.

01:05:16
Speaker 10: Yeah, and I'm watching and I'm looking at I'm like, who the Hell's Corey Durton. And he started playing more in the second half of the season. So I watched that Chargers game and then I went back and watched some clips from other games, Like he's he's a big, tough, physical dude that plays with his hands really well. He's in the right spot and he's gonna be going up against Jake Andrews.

01:05:35
Speaker 7: There was an issue with the snaps since he jas child last week, you know.

01:05:39
Speaker 10: And they don't face a whole lot of teams that line up in a classic three four front as much.

01:05:44
Speaker 7: As the Steelers did. The Patriots.

01:05:48
Speaker 10: They they'll run some bare formation and stuff, but they still got that nose tackle on the center a lot. And I think, like, like Corey Durton, who knows, maybe this is just a little flash in the pan at the end of one season, but it's one more guy that I think the Texans have to account for. And I haven't seen his name out there a lot but like it's and I have a hard time. I keep reminding myself, this isn't a Belichick team. This isn't a Belichick team, but it is a Mike Rabel team, and there's some similarities there. One thing about those Patriots defenses back with Bill Belichick was that you could watch a defense improve over the course of a season simply because guys got better with their technique. And I think Brabel's cut from the same cloth with that. Those guys are going to get coached up. I think there's guys along that defensive line that are better defensive lineman now than they were in the first half of the season, and I think it's more of a I'm glad.

01:06:36
Speaker 7: I was glad to hear a lot of Patriots people talk about it up and down.

01:06:39
Speaker 10: The Patriots run defense has been because the first three things I looked at randomly, it looked like an incredible run defense. I don't know what's going on, but I think there are opportunities there. This Texans offense right now is way more capable of taking advantage of it than they would have been even.

01:06:59
Speaker 7: Eight weeks ago.

01:07:00
Speaker 10: They shuffled their offensive line around, they put when they put Trent Brown.

01:07:04
Speaker 7: At right tackle. I was skeptical as hell, but.

01:07:07
Speaker 10: It allowed them to move tight as Howard down to left guard, and that stabilized things. They've got veterans on both sides of the line now, the communication errors aren't nearly as bad as they used to be, and they they run a competent offense in a way that they really weren't in the first half.

01:07:21
Speaker 2: I think, honestly, especially if we're talking about the Dirden game, being the centerpieces, having ninety seven, having Milton Williams there next to them helps in terms of their ability to cause those problems. And I think it goes back because you mentioned that the early stage, Greg openly nationally seth pleading with the Houston Texans front to just be normal, just to be MODI yeah, normal to get to this point, and we got there, I think if and then again and.

01:07:51
Speaker 1: Then CJ was very not normal the other night.

01:07:53
Speaker 3: Well, and that's the thing.

01:07:54
Speaker 2: If you can extract, which is very difficult, it's just like, oh, you take away the six bad shots. Though the catastrophics from that game, things looked pretty good. Yeah, they look sustainable, and you don't expect CJ to have a game like that, especially against against this defense, and like acknowledging fully with the pathogen that's spreading nationwide and worldwide at this point, and TJ.

01:08:18
Speaker 3: Watt having won lung to play like.

01:08:20
Speaker 2: I think there were some impacts to where the Steelers defense might not have been at least in the front because of course it's always been an adventure in the back seven for the Steelers, and we saw that in terms of Christian Kirk getting loose for the amount of yards and catches that he had. But there's some positives to take away from that performance where the Texans should feel confident in Shroudsvillague.

01:08:41
Speaker 1: I want to read a text that Seth set me at seven fifteen pm Monday night, and this was a lot of pressure on the Texans because we knew Seth is only coming on the show today if they win. This is the point of the game where I believe it's seven to six, and it felt like it should have been about forty to six at that point. And you texted me because you know Walker, my son is a huge Texans fan. It was it was birthday, we had the Texans cupcakes. It was all going to be ruined if CJ. Kept fritzing out, and you just said, please, don't let your son listen to what I have to say about CJ and tomorrow. What did you say and how are you feeling now? You know you did get to watch the end of the game where it got a little better.

01:09:19
Speaker 10: Well, you know, I said a lot of what Patrick said, honestly taking his timeline everybody, I know, everybody's dying to know what I've done the last forty eight hours after that game on Monday night, it was I had a hard time going to bed because, honestly, the defensive performance was so incredible and the way the fourth quarter.

01:09:37
Speaker 7: Went, it was really exciting.

01:09:39
Speaker 10: And I woke up and I just we consciously, Sean Pendergass and I, my co host, you know, consciously said, you know what, we got to have this CJ conversation about the performance last night, but let's put it on the back burner to a certain degree because it was an awesome victory.

01:09:54
Speaker 7: It's a playoff victory, and.

01:09:56
Speaker 10: The defense was so much of the story, and the rushing attack was so much of the story. They had it one hundred and sixty four yards rushing, the highest they had all year was one hundred and sixty seven yards and that was back when they faced the Ravens, and the Ravens basically had a compilation of like kids from the local high school maybe uh like maybe an emergency hockey goalie or something in there. Like it was they were banged up, So that was the best rushing performance they had.

01:10:22
Speaker 7: But to echo what Patrick said, CJ.

01:10:25
Speaker 10: Did some really good things in that game, but that's not the way the quarterback position goes. You get you get, you know, judged by the sum total. CJ this year has done a really good job of becoming that more mature quarterback who understands the game situation, understands when to throw the ball in the dirt, when to throw the ball away, when to not make a sack worse by trying to scramble out the back of the pocket. He understands, and he's been more willing to just take, you know, all the old cliches. Don't go broke, take in a profit, take what the defense gives you. All that like, So on first down he's hitting that first read. He's not sitting there waiting to see if Nico Collins clears downfield. So that's what was so frustrating about it was it felt like you'd seen seventeen games while minus his injuries, of CJ really becoming a more mature and veteran quarterback and understanding that, hey, we don't have to have an awesome game.

01:11:21
Speaker 7: I don't have to push, I don't have to press.

01:11:23
Speaker 10: We've got that defense on the other side of us, and we just need to we need to, you know, do all the old Tom Brady stuff, do the boring stuff really well. So the frustrating thing was to watch him in that game. And it's not like the lights were too bright or anything. He's played in playoff games before, but it just felt like he was pressing. It felt like there were times where all of a sudden, he looked like a young quarterback who is, you know, trying to make something happen when perhaps the best thing would have been to just.

01:11:49
Speaker 7: Eat the ball.

01:11:50
Speaker 10: And I don't I don't think unless it was because of some injury we don't know about or anything, I don't think it's going to be an ongoing problem.

01:11:58
Speaker 7: You know.

01:11:58
Speaker 10: CJ's had a lot of trials and tribulations at various points in his young career already, and he's come back from them.

01:12:05
Speaker 7: It was just it was really.

01:12:06
Speaker 10: Odd and it was a surprise to see that he did make those mistakes because it wasn't typical of him this season.

01:12:12
Speaker 4: He's like, it's going too well all around me. Time to freak out.

01:12:20
Speaker 10: One thing he said was it is interesting that he made all that progress. But I was trying to put myself in his shoes, and he consciously was saying all week long, you know, he was saying, hey, you treat this like any other game. You don't try to go above and beyond. But there's got to be something in a young quarterback's mind that thinks. You know, when I was a kid, you know, dreaming of greatness and everything, my dream wasn't to lead like the Trent Dilfer style playoffs in Super Bowl run. Like nobody dreams of being Trent Dilfer and winning a Super Bowl. And so I'm hoping that's what it was like. As a former Texans player and fan, I want, obviously CJ to be the best version of himself, and sometimes this year, the best version of himself has just been understanding that Nope, we just we need to possess the football. We need to maintain this lead. We need a first down here, we don't need a touchdown. And it was and it was odd to see it. It was odd to see it kind of disappear from one night.

01:13:14
Speaker 1: I think he's been a little streakier this year than the true CJ believers like myself would have wanted to see. I don't on balance, I don't even know if he's been better this year than he was a year ago, because he had so many things going wrong around him that I thought he overcome for most of last season and this season, I think he's been great for like eighty percent of the season. And then there's just these little funks he gets into in games that are sometimes inexplicable. It's not about the opponent or what the offensive line, and that he seems to get himself into a funk. And the good thing is, like on on Monday Night, he usually gets himself out of it.

01:13:51
Speaker 7: Yeah.

01:13:52
Speaker 10: Well, if there's one thing I've learned is I you know, I don't want to be an old man.

01:13:55
Speaker 7: I try to keep up with the EPA and the kids all talking about these days.

01:13:58
Speaker 1: Kids.

01:14:00
Speaker 10: There's one thing I've learned from EPA, It's that in any given time, there are forty seven Tier one quarterbacks, and because I've I've seen the EPA per play breakdowns where CJ is actually no no idiot, I'm a ball noer. He's actually operating like a top five quarterback, and it's just it's all over the place, and they're all calculated differently.

01:14:21
Speaker 7: Right this lot of FPA. Yeah, yeah, So.

01:14:26
Speaker 10: I think the sum total of it is they've they've had a hard time at various times and games. And you're right, Greg, it's when this pops up all of a sudden in the third quarter of the Chiefs game, for a stretch in the Chargers game where teams start throwing.

01:14:40
Speaker 7: Zero blitzes, all out blitzes.

01:14:42
Speaker 10: At him, and through a combination of either not dialing up the right protection or CJ not having an option early in the down, or just plat out a breakdown in the in the past protection, that's where they've really struggled. And that's where going up against the Patriots and that defense, how well they disguise their bridges, things get murky at times. But then but then they've been able to dig themselves out of that. And it's been as both of you, as all you guys, I think it's at some point here it's been kind of start and go, and it's in. It's in fits and starts. They've made a.

01:15:14
Speaker 7: Lot of progress, but it's also as CJ is, he has a lot.

01:15:18
Speaker 10: More command by it at the line of scrimmage than he did before.

01:15:22
Speaker 7: And you know that is that's it.

01:15:23
Speaker 10: It's spinning four different plates in twenty seconds as you're up at the line of scrimmage, and some of it's just going to be gunky at first. They've made progress, it's just a question of okay, can you actually continue progress on through the playoffs?

01:15:36
Speaker 1: Well, good luck, seth Uh. You know I'm I'm torn. I want my son to be happy after this game. But more importantly, I want I want you to be happy. I want you to be happy.

01:15:48
Speaker 7: Oh I'm happy no matter what. What's the what's the name for my followers, the seth Heads?

01:15:54
Speaker 1: We are the Steads.

01:15:55
Speaker 10: Yes, that's a good I look at a little little tip of the cap to meth heads when we do that.

01:16:00
Speaker 1: I love that. You know, they don't get enough, they don't get enough credit. Underrated get help Seth fine again. Check out his YouTube channel for all the best Texans breakdowns. Don't hit that music. We have a couple of other small things before we take our break, but we're gonna say goodbye to Seth. We'll see a buddy that I love.

01:16:27
Speaker 4: That man.

01:16:28
Speaker 1: Seth is absolutely the best. I did want to just mention before we go, Nico Collins is not at practice on Wednesday. I don't think you can overstate how big of a deal that is because of how much this offense relies on Nico Collins. And yes, Christian Kirk stepped up and he almost matched his season total for yards in one playoff game. And they actually have pretty good depth in terms of their receiver group, but that is massive. Right. Whereas Christian Gonzales is at practice Wednesday, he is in the concussion protocol, so there's no guarantee that either one of them will play or necessarily miss the game. But obviously it's not looking good for Nico Collins. And yeah, it checked a little weather update we're going to have for all these games. No precipitation probably gonna be in like the high twenties, like mid thirties as Foxborough goes in January, seems like it'll be okay. But both these quarterbacks weren't very accurate. You know, in the in the wildcard game compared to where they normally are. So I don't know if that's the cold or if it was the situation, but you just want to see them, see them on point, you know.

01:17:32
Speaker 6: I would love to see that, Greg, I really would. But I'm not gonna sit there and expect with these two defenses playing. Yeah they have been, I'm not actually going to expect a ton of accuracy from either of these guys.

01:17:42
Speaker 2: Frankly, Yeah, it's accuracy. It's all relative right to the circumstance that your speed, your.

01:17:47
Speaker 1: Direction, I motivated you are.

01:17:49
Speaker 3: Yes, how hard you would.

01:17:50
Speaker 1: Like to say, Well, you just don't see Drake May or Stroud for that matter, miss too many layups. Accuracy is kind of like their calling card. And what you know, Drake May is this season and they missed just a few more than you expecting. Drake May is gonna throw it in there into tight windows, which you'll probably have a lot of. All right, let's hit the music now. As we take go to the break, he mentioned Corey Durden, I did want to do an exercise of just naming team players playing significant minute and snapped for the Patriots this year. In this last week, Jack Gibbett, Corey Durden, Craig Woodson, Charles Woods, Dell Pettis, Jelani Tavai. I think people know him, Marty Mapu only one snapper, Eric Gregory got ten step Leonard Taylor the third and Elijah Ponder. Meet your new England Patriots. I feel like a lot of people aren't familiar with these men.

01:18:40
Speaker 3: Del Pettis, George Roper.

01:18:43
Speaker 1: Dirty Dell. He comes from the hip the Locks, of course. Oh this season, hell, this show. It's been a journey. We've arrived at our final game to talk about. But it will be the first game on the divisional round slate. If you're on the West Coast, don't make too many Saturday play You gotta get back home by early afternoon.

01:19:16
Speaker 3: Yes, not morning stuff, so you are able to get.

01:19:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, non forget all activities.

01:19:22
Speaker 3: With the young folks.

01:19:23
Speaker 2: Perhaps if your job is football at consuming football and you have multiple children.

01:19:27
Speaker 7: Who are a little.

01:19:29
Speaker 3: Bit extra Barns energy.

01:19:32
Speaker 2: As for the Saturday at four point thirty on CBS, Jim Nantz Tony Romo on the call for the Buffalo Bills at the Denver Broncos, a rematch of the playoff game that ended the Broncos season. In twenty twenty four, the Broncos one and a half point favorites as of our discussion right now, Jordan Rodrick forty five and a half is the over under. Did the Denver Broncos make the necessary changes and adjust in this season to do what they we're not able to do at the end of last season?

01:20:01
Speaker 6: We eat the Buffalo bill Well, so here's where I have to eat some crow, because the Bills are playing like a more complete team than I ever thought was possible on defense, especially heading into the most crucial time for them to be doing it. I said at the very beginning of the year, my biggest worry about the Bills was going to be this defense. They proved me right a lot. But we also talked about when it comes time to get into matchup specific football and building bespoke game plans for your opponent week by week by week. It's not something you can do very often in the regular season unless you are like Bill Belichick with Brian Flores as your defensive coordinator. This is exactly what the Bills are doing and Sean McDermott is so gifted at it, and it's the battle of the Shawns. It's the battle of the old guy Shaans, right, and this is going to be I think the Bills making a statement about who they are going to continue to be through the rest of the postseason.

01:21:00
Speaker 1: I started thinking about this question of age and experience, and it's it's I think people like kind of put meaning on things after they happened, like, well, experience mattered when it's an older team, but then when they lose, it's like, well, is.

01:21:14
Speaker 6: That a recency? What's the word for it, recency, bio, No, there's or anyway, Yeah, I don't know what the word for it is, like correlation, confirm confirmation, bias. And I was like, I know it's one of them.

01:21:25
Speaker 1: And it's like like if the if the Bills had struggled last week, like they were old. But when I looked at who were the best defensive players for the Bills in that game, it was Tred Devious White, it was Matt Milano. I would say, who else am I forgetting of the old Guard? It was Shack Tops and been there forever, but is absolutely criminal. Greg Russou would have to be in that mix, and he's definitely younger, but you've had guys. Ron Johnson is another one that just have been in this system and are maybe be able to go out and execute that bespoke game plan. Why has bespoke become kind of a thing. I feel like the last five years has been.

01:22:09
Speaker 6: Big because here's what I love about it, because, especially when you're.

01:22:13
Speaker 1: Talking about it, I never said bespoke until like five years ago. Now it's everywhere.

01:22:16
Speaker 6: But I love the word when it comes to talking about football because it is a it's sort of like a fancy.

01:22:22
Speaker 4: Word a little bit.

01:22:22
Speaker 6: It's like bespoke, right, But then it also means badass freaking defense in this case, which is what I love about it because it's it's they were so technical with some of the things that they were doing, and some of the things aren't going to continue to try to do Patrick because they want to confuse Bonicks.

01:22:39
Speaker 4: They want streaky Bonicks to emerge.

01:22:41
Speaker 6: They want to disrupt that really awesome connection that Bonicks has with Courtland Sutton. They want to get the spots off and and and the like, the landmarks where receivers are supposed to be in this.

01:22:51
Speaker 4: Sean Payton offense.

01:22:52
Speaker 6: They want to disrupt timing and those spots on the field where they know he wants.

01:22:55
Speaker 4: To throw the ball.

01:22:56
Speaker 6: They did all of those things against Trevor Lawrence, who also has elements of that offense. Predicated on all of that being intact, they messed it up with a lot of their rotations post snap and with the way that they could maximize these older players in a bespoke way.

01:23:15
Speaker 2: Yes, and I think the way the you know, it's not superful, superfluous, if I could say it, oddly enough, the usage of the word, because it highlights the you need a particular set of circumstances to be successful with it. Within this defense, you need to be prepared for certain things in certain matchups where we talked about the Houston Texans where it's all right, here's what we're gonna do. We got to do These dudes are relatively young. Not to shout out, you know, as a person who's two months older almost than Aaron Rodgers, like I realized I can't call anybody old anymore. But this is the exact opposite in terms of the way that the defense is approaching an offense of the playoff game, where yeah, those guys were ready for what the Jags had in store. I think it's not necessarily a similar matchup because the college football fans would go back to that analogy you go transitive property where the Jags blew out the Broncos in Denver and then they just lost to the Buffalo pay But that's not how it works. A style football works. It's styles making these particular matchups. And it's another set on a shorter week where they have to install and digest an entirely new game plan against a different team that attacks defenses in a different way where.

01:24:31
Speaker 3: There can be some doubt they can creep in.

01:24:34
Speaker 2: And we've seen bow Knicks play at an exceedingly high level getting away from Michael Parsons to the extent that Michael Parsons gets hurt trying to chase in corral bow Knicks. And do the Bills have that athleticism to provide that sort of issue. The problems that they gave the Jacksonville Jaguars were on the back end. I do think they need to be better upfront to cause similar issues to this Broncos.

01:24:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, they got to keep him in the pocket. He's one of the best. His number of throws on the move is where he is at his very best. I guess you do this show long enough and you just get old enough that eventually you become what you hate. That's me talking about myself, and that's why I think that time of possession really matters. I got so old that eventually I became complimentary football guy.

01:25:30
Speaker 4: How does it feel?

01:25:31
Speaker 3: Almost the biggest step in that process, Greg.

01:25:33
Speaker 1: Just thinking about this, that the best offense for this Bill's defense, for them to execute the type of game plan and for these for this defense to get away with it essentially is for Josh Allen in this offense to just stay on the field. I thought last week the they had three or four long drives they had and some of them didn't even end up that well. They had a five minute punt drive, they had a six minute field They had the ninety two yard drive of course as well. And I thought that just first of all, if you're not as talented, and I don't think this Bills team is as talented as their opponents these two weeks, that's one way to do it. And I think it puts younger quarterbacks in this in this circumstance, like Trevor Lawrence and Bo Nicks, like each possession matters more and you're having to do more. And then I also think it helps the Bills defense specifically avoid you know, having to face a great running game. Now. Last week they held up against the Jaguars, but it was really more the Jaguars just weren't on the field. Again this week, it's a team that doesn't run the ball well. But the Broncos can go on, you know, exceedingly long drives just passing the ball. But if you think about that game last week last year, I know it's very different, but the time of possession was so crazy in that game. It was over forty minutes for the Bills, and I just think that's really important. And it's not necessarily all going to be the run game, but the Bills running game has to be better this week. And you would think that it's both Josh Allen hopefully if he's one hundred percent, but more importantly James Cook on the ground and these short passes to Khlil Shakir of just like Alan and Shakira seeming like they're just like playing football with their friends. At points last week was just like let's just keep throwing it at seq three yards, four yards, five yards, like whatever. It is just hold on to the ball. And I think that sort of complimentary football is like the route for this Bills team to go pull off an upset.

01:27:29
Speaker 4: How does it feel your new life?

01:27:31
Speaker 1: I mean, I finally understand what Mark Schlareth has been saying. No, I don't know why it has to be Schlare. It's really the announcers we grew up listening to who just would talk about time of possession and complimentary. Well.

01:27:44
Speaker 4: I like the point because this is also vance.

01:27:48
Speaker 6: Joseph is going to throw a lot of stuff and this offense and he's going to throw a lot of looks. They're going to try to do everything they can to disrupt exactly that the patient style of foot Well, you know we always talk about when do you press the button with Josh Allen, Well, it's on the whole game in a game like this, because you want to make sure that the thread of him on the run is activated, not necessarily to bite off these explosives, but the thread of the run that adds dimension to your own run game that then helps you pick and pick and pick and pick away under this defense. And from what they want to do now, they will be playing tight, tighter than a lot of the Bills offensive guys have faced, although there's been a lot of disrespect for that Bill's receiving core through the course of this season, and so it's not going to be as easy to pick away in the passing game underneath whatever that coverages they're playing. Instead, it's going to have to be the run game, and it's going to have to be everybody is activated across the surface, including the tight ends, including the receivers, including getting the best performance that you could possibly get out of this offensive line that is typically very, very good but has had some up and down moments.

01:28:54
Speaker 1: Ray that's the things like if they get in these third and long that's part of what I'm talking about with time of possession, everye thing. Yeah, Spencer Brown is not playing well. Their right tackle. He has gotten beat down in a few different matchups in a row, including last week. I think it was mostly against Travon Walker and him matching up against this Broncos pass rush in like obvious passing situations sounds like a total nightmare. But if you can go heavy personnel, and last year it was a lot of the running backs and the tight ends against the Broncos. If you look at the numbers this year, it's the same thing, like they're not great against tight ends and the Bills have a bunch, which which is important because they don't have any receivers.

01:29:35
Speaker 2: Last like Tyrrel Shaver's played in this game with the torn acl, like that was the state, the state of the Bills at receiver where they needed Shavers to come back in and and actually play.

01:29:46
Speaker 3: That's with the torn acl.

01:29:49
Speaker 2: Hopefully he has a great recovery, because there were flashes to what could be the future for the Buffalo Bills, but now the present, like it's Brandon Cooks, like the entire plane ultimately getting constructed out of Brandon Cooks and Khalil Shakir. Where that's that's the strength of this Broncos secondor as much as the officials openly hate Riley Moss, it's truly the strength.

01:30:10
Speaker 1: Haven't called as many penalties late. I think Riley Boss is getting some love late, maybe not just from the officials, from from the ball knowers. We know he's played well. Let's let's just bring up the status officially Tyrrel Shavers, who by the way, played more than half of the snaps when they had two receivers on the field. He was basically their younger version of what Mac Collins was last year, their great blocking wide receiver who can make some plays here and there go, you know, running down the field. He's out for the season. Josh Palmer, the big free agency pickup who going into last week we thought might be available. He is now out for the season. And then Gabe Davis also tour his ACL in that game. He's on injured reserve. He's out for the season. So you mentioned it. It's Cooks and Keon Coleman's gonna have to play, But more and more importantly, it's it's Kincaid, and it's Dawson Knock and it's it's Jackson Hawes. They're they're blocking tight end and maybe they're going to roll out Alec Anderson again. I was thinking about like their sixth offensive line. They stopped doing that this year when they were kind of the first team that was really making that look cool last year, Like, maybe bring that back, because to me, this is a let's load up and be tougher because they're not winning any of those matchups on the outside. And if I would think Sirtana is going to see a lot of secure in this game.

01:31:27
Speaker 6: Shaki is going to see a lot of hymn. I don't know if it's the other way around. I do like that's what I mean, because the perimeters are going to be so tight against these receivers. Everything has to happen like between the hashes and in the scene essentially, and maybe a little of the screen game can keep going. You know, we've seen that be effective sometimes, but it's really going to be can we push you around along the line of scrimmage and get some medium stuff in the air happening to our tight ends?

01:31:54
Speaker 2: I think between Alan and Roach as much as the edges can be an issue and to have athletic edges as unnecessary thing against Josh Allen. But you go back to that eight sec Houston Texans game where Rankins as well as Denico Autry had a great game in that matchup in limiting Josh's options to step up. But as you said, is this gonna be are we gonna get twenty uh Josh Allen dropbacks?

01:32:24
Speaker 3: Like in this game, it's.

01:32:26
Speaker 1: Got to mean you're gonna have if you fall down early, you will yet And so that that's sort of what I mean, like slow it down. And you've seen this a lot. I think this could play into the Bill's hands that the Broncos their offense take takes a minute to ramp up, Like there aren't many games that the Broncos have had that like start to finish. The passing game has been rolling, and you would think in this matchup, and I am curious JK. Dobbins is practicing. We haven't seen him in a couple of months. There's a real chance that JK. Dobbins returns for this game because it's Peyton with a very rested offense and a good offensive line, and he's such a good m schematic coach, Like, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw the best out of the Broncos running game specifically in this game, which would really for a lot of what I'm talking about, because it doesn't make sense to me that they would be such a bad running team, and they're not like a bad running team, but they definitely have missed JK. Dobbins since he's been gone, and they haven't been a consistent one. But is this a week where they can pop up? Because if that happens, then it could really get snowballing the other way.

01:33:32
Speaker 6: I think you see that how good their offensive line is. We've been talking about all season. It's one of the best, if not the best offensive line in the NFL this year, even before you know, some of the guys got banged up all along it. But it's also because they have the threat of Bonnix who can take off as well. You really expect this run game to be way better than it is.

01:33:53
Speaker 4: And it's not bad.

01:33:54
Speaker 6: That's the thing, Like you said, it's there, it's it can be effective some games.

01:33:59
Speaker 4: In some games, it's just really.

01:34:00
Speaker 1: Not and it'll disappear for entire games, which is the price.

01:34:04
Speaker 6: Yeah, And so that's the thing is that to me has been one of the most confusing things about the Broncos.

01:34:10
Speaker 4: And yeah, the injury to JK.

01:34:11
Speaker 6: Dobbss's that's significant, But it took Sean Payton like to over the midway point of the season right to get like one hundred yard rusher in a game, and that's just not the way he wants to play football, as we know. And so for all the talent that's there up front, you know, moving bodies, it's been confusing to me all season.

01:34:30
Speaker 1: So I want to see, like, can they sack Josh Allen because What really stuck out to me from Josh Allen last week, especially when I went back to rewatched, just everything was so fast, like fast decision making, like fast twitch movement. I mean, the throws were obviously fast, like the decision everything was very on it, like, and he has been easier to sack this year than he's ever been in his entire career by far. And this is the team the most sacks I believe since two thousand and I think they have like one of the highest like sack to pressure ratios, So like, yeah, they get pressure, but they also really finish when they get near you. And if you can get those negative plays, I'm even thinking, like Josh Allen did take a twelve yard sack last week against the Jags, and like they didn't even try to It was very rare to see that from the Bills, Like they almost didn't try to get a first down on that drive and they punted and and I like that that they were really avoiding mistakes and it was a part of the game where they could afford to do that. But you can't do that too much, and that, to me is a danger when you're thinking about how Spencer Brown is playing and how good this Broncos defense is. We just got to see if they are like truly like capital e elie. Are they there with the Texans and the Seahawks. I have my doubts, but you can go prove it. And they haven't played a real difficult challenge in a while. Remember I was on this one like a month ago. All right, here's who they've played, you know, the last month, Chris Ola Duken, you know, since they got waxed by Trevor Lawrence and the first you know, first half of Jordan Lovanes Wich, Chris Ola Ducin, Trey Lance and then a bye and then you got big Josh Allen playoff, Josh Allen coming in. That's a that's a big change.

01:36:15
Speaker 2: You're talking about the quick change, crediting Josh Allen. You're not doing college football schedule scouting, which was a critique people have had of the New England Patriots.

01:36:22
Speaker 1: You're not doing I'm not schedule scouting. What I am saying is it weird they haven't faced tough offensive competition in a month. That it's just an oddity. I don't know if it means anything.

01:36:32
Speaker 3: It goes back longer than a month.

01:36:34
Speaker 2: There's been a few backup quarterbacks on the schedule against the Denver.

01:36:37
Speaker 1: Right, but at least they had that Jordan Love Trevor Lawrence like, that's how you want to be preparing for the playoffs, and that was that was a month ago. Who knows, Maybe it doesn't matter, but if ever there was going to be like a team that's been playing and playing top competition who gets off to a fast start, Like I do think there might be something to that.

01:36:55
Speaker 6: We talked earlier in the show about how some of the top defenses in the NFL this season are still very susceptible to explosive plays.

01:37:03
Speaker 4: The Broncos are not.

01:37:04
Speaker 6: And yes, sure some of that does come into play. How explosive were some of the offenses that they've been playing, But everyone gets to say, right, everybody's paid, as the coaches like to say, and this is a team that does not give up explosive plays, the fewest in the entire NFL this season, And so you I think they're for real. I mean I think they are for real, for real and don't have some of the weaknesses that some of their counterparts might have.

01:37:29
Speaker 2: Right around seventeen hundred players last two seasons, so I guess you could multiply that times too.

01:37:34
Speaker 3: Nobody's had more quarterback hits than.

01:37:36
Speaker 1: Zach Allen Wild.

01:37:38
Speaker 2: I guess because he's on the interior, gets a chance to physically impact the quarterback a lot, but nobody.

01:37:44
Speaker 1: It's that. I like how early in the week all the Broncos fans and Sean Payton were talking about how they're the underdogs and they're disrespected, and then, as you like to point out, Patrick, it's all about making that money and unfortunately too much of that money agreed and went to the Broncos. So now their favorite, and now they're no longer disrespected. They can't say that they're the underdogs.

01:38:03
Speaker 6: So he has to find something else to be mad about, and I think he did, Greg, Yeah, because they.

01:38:07
Speaker 3: Get Drake Greenlaw back.

01:38:09
Speaker 2: And Sean Payton asked a question this week about Drake Greenlaw's impact in the run.

01:38:13
Speaker 5: Game, having green Lawn back for this game, his ability to attack down hill in the run games? How is that the timing of it this week?

01:38:22
Speaker 11: Do you want him to attack downhill? Is that you're like, what do you know about attacking downhill in the run game? You don't know? All right, that's right? Have him attacking downhill. It's good to have a healthy Drake Greenlaw back in the game.

01:38:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a smile on his face, folks.

01:38:40
Speaker 6: And hey, shout out to Luca Evans who had Lincoln.

01:38:44
Speaker 4: Riley at USC.

01:38:45
Speaker 6: So gd shook that he started canceling media availabilities running away from folks.

01:38:50
Speaker 1: Oh that's who that is, right? Yes, I do think that that multiple things can be true. As Jordan Love, I mean, as a Jordan Rodrigu would love to stay. Maybe Jordan love with too. Number one Seohn Payton's kind of a he was smiling. But number two, that's how he shows love. I'm saying, game, recognize this game. I think he would only do that with a reporter that he actually likes and respects. But that was funny. Yeah, you just like I see you using the jargon.

01:39:20
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna tack it downhill.

01:39:22
Speaker 1: Uh, it's the toughest game to pick. I think. Actually, both AFC games to me are just total coin flips, and almost nothing would surprise me except for a blowout. I really would be surprised if either of these AFC games, like are not one score fourth quarter, we're sweating it out. I'm looking forward to I don't know if you guys have any.

01:39:42
Speaker 6: I I loved your take at the beginning of the show, Greg about how you could really feasibly see any of these teams in the Super Bowl.

01:39:51
Speaker 4: I could do.

01:39:52
Speaker 1: I think they all have such obvious clear strength. I think they're all excellent. Even in a normal nflc and where there's like Superpowers, where there's like a great Mahomes and Lamar type of team, I think they would be like a tour of three. It's a bunch of two slash three seats, but they all have like there there each each have their own like problem that they're clearly facing, and it's all just about matchup. Like I just I don't know. I'm leaning. I've gone back and forth. I'm I'm hesitant after picking against the Bills last week when everything was logical and Josh Allen was just like too good to overcome, and it overcame all that and might might have to flip to the Bills. It's just the I haven't decided.

01:40:33
Speaker 2: The accumulation of punishment for Josh, where he's required to do to do everything he can't, he can do it, and I said it was silly to put it all on his shoulders.

01:40:43
Speaker 7: Seat.

01:40:44
Speaker 2: He did it last week, it's to have him do it back to back weeks on the road also feels a lot. So I want to emotionally prepare everybody. Josh if he can't do it, but I think he can.

01:40:55
Speaker 1: I think he can too. But my head, my head says Houston Denver. But but I might object it into my face, But my my heart it will be probably going for Patriots Bill, So I usually pick with my heart. Well off the check in.

01:41:09
Speaker 4: You're facing a real notebook style conflict.

01:41:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, hopefully we survive at the end.

01:41:16
Speaker 3: Uh.

01:41:16
Speaker 1: If we do, we will be back together next week. Hit the I mean I don't know, hit the music.

01:41:25
Speaker 3: Please.

01:41:28
Speaker 1: This didn't seem like it'd be my kind of movie. I mean I haven't seen any uh Colleen Hoover movies either. Oh you know what I mean. Thursday we got the big pic show me Hit the Freelan against the Spread.

01:41:43
Speaker 4: We will see that, Colleen Hoover