295: Week 6 Matchups

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha, JJ zacher Resa, what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at FANDL and at number fire dot com, and this is episode two hundred and ninety five of the Late Round podcast on many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. I feel like I'd have to quit my job if I did this show last week without mentioning Will Fuller. Anytime a flex type player goes off like that, I really really hope that I was on that player for this show, and fortunately that was the case last week. Let's hope that things continue that way in Week six. Before getting to players who I'm higher in lower on versus the consensus, this week, though, I want to remind you guys about Fandel's World Fantasy Football Championship. Fandel's pulling out all the stops for this year's WFFC. From now till December onet, you can enter a number of different qualifiers at different prize points to earn your seat at the two and a half million dollar live final in Puerto Rico or the three and a half million dollar online Championship For more info on the WFFC, visit Fandle dot com, slash WFFC, or download the app today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Let's kick things off with this week's fifteen transactions poster Boy and that's Kyler Murray. I love Murray this week. There are very few quarterbacks that I would play ahead of Kyler Murray. I mentioned a lot of this earlier this week, but Kyler Murray is one of three quarterbacks this year with sixteen or more Fantasy points in each game, and he's doing that with a two percent touchdown rate that's the lowest in the league outside of Luke Falk and the Miami Quarterbacks. Now he gets Atlanta. Atlanta has been the fifth most generous team to quarterbacks this season, having allowed a top twelve performance in every game this year since Week one. The one game where they didn't was against Kirk Cousins, where he attempted ten passes. Murray has a great floor ceiling combo, and if you've got him, you're almost definitely starting in Speaking of Cousins, though I don't actually mind him this week either. Everyone knows that Minnesota likes to run the ball. Only San Francisco has a lower pass to rush attempt ratio. This season, Minnesota's throwing it on forty five percent of their plays. When excluding sacks. That number jumps to fifty five point nine percent though in neutral game scripts, and while that's still more of a run heavy number than the average, it's not by much. Now. I bring this up because they're at home this week facing Philadelphia with just a three point spread on Fandel Sportsbook. This could be a close game, and in the two games where Minnesota trailed this year and lost, Cousins hit the thirty attempt mark, and the matchup against Philadelphia is one where it would make sense to throw. They rank eleventh in points allowed to the quarterback position, and they're about average and net yards per attempt allowed. Meanwhile, no team has allowed fewer rushing yards than the Philadelphia Eagles. So I don't mind Cousins as a streamer this week since he's out there. He was earlier in the week on seventy five percent of ESPN dot Com waiver wires. Kyle Allen's another streamer that you could look at this week as well. Tampa Bay has been really bad over the last few weeks, allowing three top eight performances to the quarterback position. Two of those were top five ones to Teddy Bridgewater and Daniel Jones. This game has a decent enough over under forty seven points, and this spread is just a couple of points on FanDuel sportsbooks, so things should be close. Allen's risky given who he is, but this isn't a bad spot for him. Now. I talked about liking Cousins this week, and I think in that same game, the consensus is overrating Carson Wentz a bit. Minnesota's defense is good and the Eagles are on the road in this contest. So far this season, Matt Ryan's ranked fourteenth and weekly scoring against the Vikings Rogers QB nineteen, Derek Carr QB twenty, Chase Daniel QB twenty, and Daniel Jones QB twenty one. Now, they haven't faced a lot of great options, as you just heard, but they held both Rogers and Matt Ryan to below average days, their fourth best in yards per attempt allowed, and this game itself doesn't have that high of and over under. So while I do think that once is fine as a QB two type play, I worry about his tip ten upside, and the same could be said about Philip Rivers, who's currently ranked as QB thirteen, So just outside of that QB one range, I do think the Chargers will find a nice matchup with Keenan Allen in the slot to take advantage of against Pittsburgh. That's what we saw last year, and the Steelers are still the worst team in football at defending the slot. But even still, the Steelers defense hasn't exactly been the main issue for that team this year. They added Minka Fitzpatrick in Week three against San Francisco and since then they've held Jimmy g Andy Dalton and Lamar Jackson to just eight Fantasy points per game. This game's on the road for the Steelers, so we shouldn't expect the world from the defense, but we probably shouldn't just assume it's a cakewalk of a matchup for Philip Rivers. Rivers should be fine enough. I just don't think that he's fringe QB won good this week. Kenyan Drake has essentially seen his usage increase each and every week. In Week one, he had a forty percent running back rushing share in a nine point four percent target share. Week two, both of those numbers increased by about six percent. Week three, the target share remained about the same, but the rushing share jumped us sixty percent. And then the last time we saw the Dolphins in Week four, Drake had fifty three percent of the team's running back rushes and almost twenty one percent of Miami's targets. And this week, Miami's in a game that could actually be somewhat close. They're just three and a half point underdogs against Washington, which is a team that's allowed the seventh most fantasy points to running backs this year. So I actually like Drake this week as a strong flex play in a borderline RB two in PPR formats, and I'm into Damian Williams two. In Week five, we saw Williams back from injury and steal ninety percent of Kansas City's running back rushes while also grabbing a ten and a half percent target share. Those are great numbers for a Kansas City offense. And what's nice about this matchup against Houston, aside from the amazing over under, is that the Texans have given up the most receptions to running backs to start the year. Now, there's some noise to any statistic like that, especially since they faced Alvin Kamara, Austin Eckler, and Christian McCaffrey. But some of those players also exceeded expectation from a reception standpoint. And it's not just game script related either, because running backs have accounted for twenty three point one percent of the receiving yards against Houston, So we're looking at a ratio here and not just a raw number, and that's one of the higher marks in the league. So I trust Damian Williams most of the backs in that Kansas City backfield. I think that he's a strong RB two play this week. I like Carlos Hide in that same game as well. The Chiefs have allowed the most rushing yards to running backs this year, and Hide has seen a significantly higher rushing share versus Duke Johnson in every game since Week one. Like we're talking over a seventy to thirty split with early down work. The receiving upside isn't as strong, but the matchup in the high scoring affair make Hide a reasonable option this week at a rough, rough position. And then there's Adrian Peterson. We're not gonna see. Washington has favored very often this year and Peterson is a lot more attractive of an option in a neutral or positive game script versus a negative one because we know he won't be involved much in the passing game. And then there's also Bill Callahan, their new head coach. He said this week that he wants to run the football more. Now forget amscript and how that can dictate things. That's what Callahan said. So it's a little narrative driven, but we could see a lot of volume for Peterson this week and making him a decent flex play and it's a plus matchup. Now, on the flip side, let's talk about Philip Lindsay. You're not benching Philip Lindsay. Please don't take this advice the wrong way. But as I alluded to on the fifteen Transaction Show this week, Lindsey's not really overperforming in the touchdown colin per se, but Royce Freeman is underperforming. Lindsey is foresure the superior option, but their rushing share and target share numbers aren't drastically far apart. That makes me nervous about Lindsay in a game against Tennessee because this game could be low scoring and Tennessee's been pretty good against running backs this year. So if there's a low scoring contest here in a tough matchup, and if the touchdowns between Lindsay and Freeman should probably be even doubted tad versus how things have gone that I'm a little lower than most on Philip Lindsay. He's still someone who should find your lineup, though, and the same could be said for Jordan Howard. I know Doug Peterson came out this week and he said that Jordan Howard is going to get more work and he'll lead that team and carries. But again, this is a tough matchup. Not only is there a chance that Philly doesn't lead in this game, which would force Miles Sanders onto the field more as the receiving back, but Minnesota has been awesome against opposing running backs this year. Outside of that Week two game against Green Bay where they were on the road and they lost, no running back has ranked higher than RB thirty five against the Vikings. So it's not that I think that Howard can't produce or shouldn't be in your lineup as a flex play. I understand how bad the running back position's depth is. It's just that this is a bad spot for Jordan Howard. So I was looking on Fantasy pros this week and I was kind of shocked to see that Michael Gallup was ranked at wide receiver twenty nine this week. Like, what does Michael Gallup have to do? He's leading the NFL in receiving yards per game, and he's seen at least twenty two percent of Dallas' targets in every game that he's played this year. He's ranked his wide receiver fifteen, thirty five, and eleven in his three games this season, and now he gets a plus matchup against the Jets defense is allowed the second most fantasy points to wide receivers to start the year, So it seems like a no brainer to me that he's undervalued this week. Now. I talked about Kirk Cousins earlier, and I think that this could be a Stephan Diggs week. Finally, Philadelphia's secondary is beatable, as I already talked about, and the Eagles have been decent against slot receivers this year. They've actually been targeted against the slot at the lowest rate in the league, and Adam Thielen's played more than double the number of snaps from that area of the field this year than Stefan Diggs has, so I like both players this week. I like both Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs, but I do think that Diggs could bounce back. One player that I'm really into is Mohammed Sanu. He's been low key decent this year and I don't think the rest of the fantasy football world has really caught up. He's now ranked thirtieth, twelfth, and eighteenth over the last three weeks and weekly wide receiver scoring, and he's now playing in one of the best games for fantasy purposes on this slate against Arizona, and the Cardinals have been awful against the slot this year. That's where snow has played eighty six percent of his snaps. Now tight ends have taken advance of that matchup against Arizona, but we also saw Tyler Boyd go nuts last week against them, and even Danny Amandola back in Week one, but only Pittsburgh has seen a higher percentage of their targets against them go to the slot. That makes Mohammed Sanu a really nice value play this week. And speaking of slot receivers, DeeDee Westbrook is in an interesting spot this week as well against New Orleans. That game could be kind of ugly, admittedly, but the Saints have been pretty generous to wide receivers this year, with seventy percent of the receiving yards that they've allowed going to that position. That's one of the highest rates in football. And they've struggled against the slot. They've given up five touchdowns and over six hundred and forty yards to players lined up in the slot, and again, those are some of the highest numbers in the league. Westbrook's seen his target share jump over the last three weeks, and I think he's a decent wide receiver three in PPR formats as a result. And lastly, if you want an even deeper play, how about Preston Williams. You've got an advantageous matchup against Washington, and over williams last two games, he set a twenty nine percent target share in Miami's offense. Those just happen to be games where Josh Rosen has been starting. So I like Williams is a deep option this week. And I really only have one player who I'm definitely lower on the consensus at wide receiver, and it's again Juju Smith Schuster. Now I know, I know, I mentioned Juju last week, and he ended up being a wide receiver fifteen against Baltimore, but he also still didn't see an uber elite target share in that offense at twenty three percent. And now he's got a third string quarterback throwing him the rock and the Chargers have been a top ten team this year at limiting opposing wide receivers Fantasy point wise. Right now, Juju smith Schuster is ranked as the wide receiver twenty, but I think he's more of a wide receiver three, maybe a higher end one. That's just the current state of the Steelers offense. Greg Olsen laid an egg in Week five, but Week six offers a good chance for a bounce back. Now. I don't love that Olson's only seen twelve percent and six percent of Carolinas targets over the past two weeks, but the Buccaneers have allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends to art the year, so it's the right matchup for a bounce back game. There really aren't obvious streamers this week, though. You could go with Gerald Everett, who has nineteen targets over his last two games, and no afant might be in play as well. Tennessee's allowed the fourth most points to the tight end position and Fan has run the tenth most routes at that position this year, So I think that you could go in that direction, no offense direction, if you're in desperate need of some tight end help. Now, as I mentioned on the fifteen Transaction show this week, defense is rough in week six. There really aren't many streaming defenses just given the way ownership percentages look across fantasy platforms. So my advice if you're really in a pinch is to look at that Washington Miami game where there's a pretty low over under. Plug your nose, hold your breath, and click add to roster. I like plenty of defenses more than those two defenses this week, but Washington's probably my preferred defense to use, given every defense to face Miami this year has finished as a top ten option. But if you're really struggling, and I mean really struggling to find a defense, you could go with Miami. That's gonna do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at late round QB. And if you're listening to the show on Apple Podcast, it would be a huge help if you could leave a rating and review. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the Weekly Mailbag Show.