Late-Round Perspectives: Andy Holloway

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Speaker 1: Andy Holloway is one of the hosts of the award winning Fantasy Footballers podcast. He's one of the founders of the Fantasy Footballers. He authored the children's book My Football Family. He's a dad of three, and he loves both ice cream and pickleball. These are his late round perspectives.

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00:02:11
Speaker 2: Back to the show.

00:02:14
Speaker 3: It is uh, It's go time, right, I mean this is fun.

00:02:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I was thinking I had uh, I had Mike on year one with perspectives, I had Jason on year two.

00:02:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, guys, for last you.

00:02:27
Speaker 2: Are That's what That's what I wanted to say. Look, I was you were either going to react.

00:02:32
Speaker 1: In a way that was you hate me the most, which is not true, right, I love you all three equally. And then then I was going to extend an olive branch and be like, hey, Andy, we have a lot of things in common. You know, we're both adoptive parents, right, Sure, there's that we both have. Uh, we're both nerdy at heart, right, so we have that. And then the third thing, we both have annoying co hosts.

00:02:53
Speaker 3: So no question about that one. That one's the most solidified commonality between us.

00:02:58
Speaker 2: Forget about we're gonna about the children.

00:03:00
Speaker 3: We're just.

00:03:03
Speaker 2: The insanity of the of the co hosts that we have.

00:03:05
Speaker 1: But no, man, I mean, it's great to great to sit down and talk to you. I haven't seen you, guys. I was actually messaging Mike last week and I.

00:03:14
Speaker 2: Haven't seen you guys.

00:03:15
Speaker 1: I don't think since the Tampa f s g A, which was like legitimately when my daughter was like born and like an infant, and now she's going into second grade.

00:03:26
Speaker 3: That's time is time is weird, man, fly, really weird. Time is weird.

00:03:31
Speaker 2: The pandemic was in there and like that.

00:03:33
Speaker 3: Yeah that was a long time ago, but it was.

00:03:35
Speaker 2: It was.

00:03:36
Speaker 1: I'm a completely different person now now I'm the I'm the one who in those events will not go out and drink and stuff and be stupid like.

00:03:43
Speaker 3: Now because we're now, because we're all we're all parents now exactly.

00:03:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, and now I'm like, oh, oh this is now.

00:03:50
Speaker 1: I now I understand, uh, you know, going back and just getting sleep as opposed to you know.

00:03:55
Speaker 3: The value.

00:03:56
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, yeah, exactly.

00:03:57
Speaker 1: But no, man, I I love having you on, I love talking to you. You're one of my favorites in the space. But I want to I want to start out this conversation by talking about you guys, and you in the fantasy space because I said to this in the show sheet.

00:04:11
Speaker 2: But you are old and I'm old.

00:04:13
Speaker 3: Now we are.

00:04:15
Speaker 2: I'm really sad.

00:04:16
Speaker 1: But look you you guys have built a sincere empire with the Fantasy footballers, and I've had the pleasure of being there pretty much from the beginning or at least close to the beginning.

00:04:26
Speaker 2: I mean I was a guest on your show yere one or two.

00:04:29
Speaker 1: I remember because I was talking about Matt Ryan as a as a late round quarterback, which I think that was the year.

00:04:35
Speaker 2: That he that he won MVP, which is which is good.

00:04:38
Speaker 1: But I want to ask you this question before we really dig into some of the player takes and some of the strategy takes.

00:04:44
Speaker 2: What's something that you've seen change the most.

00:04:47
Speaker 1: And you're doing a lot on the business side as well in fantasy football, but like, what's something that you've just seen sort of evolve through the years in this space, whether it's about you know, business, whether it's about how analysts approach things. We see thread bros out there all the time now on Twitter, which didn't exist when we when we started.

00:05:05
Speaker 2: Not to not to be the the old man, you know.

00:05:08
Speaker 3: But we are get off, get off my lawn with your threads.

00:05:12
Speaker 1: Exactly, But what what do you think has changed most? Like what's evolved the most.

00:05:17
Speaker 3: It's so weird to be in this position because like, yeah, we go way back. We felt like we were late to the party, which is how I've been part of a couple industries in my life, you know, in the professional since both times I thought I was like really late to whatever I was getting into, and it turns out you're kind of maybe earlier than you thought. But yeah, I mean it's changed a lot. Obviously, we've seen all of the massive transition of dfs and sports betting and that whole universe of regulation, and I feel like that's changed the landscape a lot in the last ten years, but specifically with just like you know, redraft fantasy football, the kind of content that we're doing. You know, I think you brought it up with the thread Bros. But there's like there's a tension now versus like maybe connection sort of. You know, like we we predicated and do predicate a lot of our business on that relationship with the with the listener, and I think podcasting in and of itself is like really conducive to that relationship getting built in a way that like radio, you know, the fifteen minute repeat yourself segments maybe not so conducive. So that's a unique part of the kind of community building that you know you do with all of your which you've done well with all of your your listeners, and you know, just connecting on a real one to one basis or in our case three and to one basis, And now it's so attention seeking, right, It's so and I kind of understand it, like I don't, like you said, we don't want to be old man on the lawn situation with all of it. It's also like it's so muddled, right, Like there's so much content and so many places to consume it. Like it's it's really a different media landscape altogether. So I understand in the bin towards attention, right and trying to just garner eyeballs as fast as you can. It's just for me that just seems like a really hard place to be in terms of like having that long standing relationship with with your fan and your audience.

00:07:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the thing I always go back to when because like I don't know, in the end, I'm always like, they can obviously do what they want however they want to approach their content. So I'll very rarely like maybe I'll be like snarky or whatever times on Twitter and like throw something out there and just be like, yeah, I'm not gonna be a thread bro or whatever. But you know, in the end, I don't deeply care because they can do whatever they want.

00:07:37
Speaker 2: From a content perspective.

00:07:39
Speaker 1: The one thing that I always kind of go back to whenever because I see a lot of like you know, up and comers in the space, if you will, getting frustrated by the attention that those folks might be getting, whether it's on there or just like click baity stuff on TikTok wherever it may be. And the thing that I always try to tell people too, and i'd love to I think this place to what you're talking about, but you can agree or disagree.

00:08:02
Speaker 2: Is just that when they do that, they're not it's not.

00:08:06
Speaker 1: A long lasting, long term thing that they're doing, right, It's a it's a very much in the moment. And yeah, they if their goal is to generate clicks, is to generate short term revenue, is to generate those those very quick deals that they can make a buck off of and and do fine in the short term.

00:08:26
Speaker 2: That's fine.

00:08:27
Speaker 1: I just think that you as an analyst have to really like decide who you are and what you want to be right, and if you want to be that kind of analyst, go for it. There's people that are quite successful in doing that. But I think that what you guys have done, and you know, obviously, like I approach my content differently than you guys do, just in the way that like, you know, the Late Round podcast is is you know, messaged and stuff and you know the quick hitting, you know format of it. But in the end, like we always are like to me, it's so important to just have that connection with the audience in some way so that we're going through this journey together and it's not just yelling at them, even though sometimes in the podcast it sounds like I'm yelling at them, right, Like having that community and is that I did want to ask too, Yeah, has that been the most rewarding part of sort of being part of this empire that you guys have created?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think so, And I think you know, like you said, people can do it a lot of different ways, with different goals in mind and different outcomes. Maybe part of the frustration with some of that attention seeking is literally just me falling for it. Yeah, right, Like, like we live in such a kind of like truth is a mystery. You got to dig a little deeper to make sure you're getting the real story, and it's like, oh, that story is a real story. But wait, no, it's coming from that source, so you know that they're trying to generate revenue for that thing.

00:09:52
Speaker 2: And it's like right.

00:09:53
Speaker 3: Like and that's major media altogether everywhere. So finding like a real story or you know, something authentic maybe that's a good word to throw over the mix, is like like is there authenticity connected to it? And you know, for us, that's like a huge priority because I don't really know how you build a relationship inauthentically in terms of a brand or in terms of you know, an audience and communicating with people. Like if we had spun the show up and had tried to imitate other successful people identically in the space, we would have not had a differentiation of any kind, and we have. You know, we also just wouldn't have communicated in a way that anybody connected with And I think you'd probably say the same thing. It's like you're doing something that's you're passionate about it the way that you communicate it, and then you're like you're there for the long haul for the people that you're talking to. So yeah, I mean for us, I think we take the biggest amount of pride and just and we were surprised by it too, like when we were new of people connecting with us and and building that relationship and the fact that podcasting, you know, it's like you know, you're part of their job every day or you're part of the Yeah, you know they're mowing the lawn every Saturday, or writing to work every day or going to the gym, like that was a unique thing. Like we we absolutely thought that, Like even when we spun up like our first Patreon membership in the very first beginning of the year, we one hundred percent thought everyone would leave at the end of December when the season was over, and we were shocked that they didn't leave. It was like, oh, this is not just an exchange of value. This is not just I'm paying you to receive this like tool and then I'm gone. It was more like, you know, thanks for bringing me this content that's giving me joy. Thanks for walking with me in stupid ways through the whole season while you were screaming about your own team and I'm screaming about mine. Whatever the case may be. That was the biggest shock in surprise early on for us, was like, oh, this is not just I'm selling you a product. This is more like we're doing this whole fantasy thing together year round, and so you know, while we were surprised by it, it's also the thing that I think is the most exciting and satisfying.

00:12:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean absolutely did do you you know now that you've found this level of fame that you found and I don't say fait like of course, right, Yeah. The funny part in talking to you guys is like I know you and it's just hilarious whenever I have these conversations with people that I know that are now being stopped, you know, if you're at the grocery store or something like whatever it may be. Did you did you ever struggle with people thanking you for what you're doing and all that like that sort of thing. Like for instance, like I'll go to the Fantasy Football Expo and there's and hopefully we see you guys there eventually.

00:12:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's the plan. That's the plan.

00:12:40
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, and so so like I'll go to you know, I'll go to the xpo and then there's there's people that are so nice and and you know, thanking me for the content and all this stuff, and I make I genuinely feel a little bit uncomfortable and sure, but then I have to take a step back and think about, oh, you know what, I listen to podcasts, right, and if I were to see the host of that podcast out in public, I feel a connection to that host, even though they don't know who I am necessarily totally, and so like, I get that dynamic. And when I can put myself in that position, I'm like, Okay, I get it, and so I'm gonna be able to hopefully show off that I'm just a.

00:13:17
Speaker 2: Normal dude like these people are and stuff.

00:13:19
Speaker 1: But like, like I, I, is there that uncomfortability at times for you?

00:13:24
Speaker 4: Oh?

00:13:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I think for sure. And it we kind of saw. I think we saw that connection the first time we did like the live shows, and it was like, yeah, you know the numbers, right, you can go check your stats on your podcast download, right, But they're not sitting in the audience with you. And then when you talk to them afterwards, and it's like, oh my gosh, that person knows me really really well. From the last four years of me talking into a microphone. I've never seen them before in my life, but they know me really well and this relationship has been built and so that was super humbling and weird, and it's like, you know, you and I work in this space that's so niche. And I don't know your wife, so I don't know like how in the fantasy she is or not. She's not Okay, my wife is not at all. And the other day when I I had I went on Isasen the other day, which was super super amazing. He's a freaking legend and yes, I had never been on with him, and and so I send a little like interview to my wife and she's like that was really elegant, gobblygook, like that was a response to my to Mike, you need.

00:14:23
Speaker 1: That, right, you need that to just be like, hey, I was just talking to rich Eysen.

00:14:27
Speaker 2: It was like all of us grew up watching and then it's like so sweet awesome.

00:14:32
Speaker 3: She's like, yeah, I wish I could appreciate that more. And that's the funny thing about fantasy is it's like it is this hyper niche like world. But if you're in it, and and there are people in it in every walk of life, right, like you could be talking to anybody anywhere and be so shocked at how dedicated they are. I mean, I remember seeing Michael Bouble on Eisen just he'd trade all his Grammys for a fantasy title and he's in eight leagues and it's like, oh, there's another one of us, right, Like, so, yeah, no, it's super cool. It's humbling. I mean, we you know, we've got awesome people. You've got awesome people you work with, and it's just it's fun to it's fun to get to be creative in the space you love exactly exactly.

00:15:12
Speaker 2: We're We're lucky at the.

00:15:13
Speaker 3: End of the day, very very fortunate.

00:15:15
Speaker 1: Like it's just just one of those things where I always like, what honestly motivates me day to day to like do awesome content is that I don't want to lose my seat at the table, you know, like that it's honestly the the the Mike Tagliare you know, mentality of like just being grateful that you're there, you're able to do it, and you don't want to lose that spot. And so I want to, like I'm competitive with other analysts only from that perspective, right, Like totally I want everyone to thrive and do awesome, but I'm also like, hey, I want to be the dude who is on a mecha BUCA or people remember for for X, y Z.

00:15:48
Speaker 2: Of course you do, right, Like if I feel like if you have that.

00:15:50
Speaker 1: Then like game right, you're different than like an athlete in their craft or something like that.

00:15:56
Speaker 2: You know, aside from the fact that we don't have to destroy our body.

00:15:59
Speaker 3: No, you know, this space is really unique in that like cooperative, friendly competition universe where it's like you want to stay at the table, you want to bring the best you know out there into the world, and god knows they have the receipts. Right, Oh my gosh.

00:16:15
Speaker 1: Yes, literally every show at this point, like every live stream.

00:16:19
Speaker 2: Hey, do you remember when you.

00:16:20
Speaker 3: Uh oh goodness, Oh my gosh, yes, yeah, yeah, that's how time works. So let's say stuff and then stuff happens.

00:16:26
Speaker 2: Let's give more.

00:16:27
Speaker 1: Let's give people some more content that they can throw in our faces when we're wrong.

00:16:30
Speaker 3: Let's do it. Let's get some stuff wrong.

00:16:31
Speaker 1: So I've been asking this question to Perspective's guests recently, but I think it's a really fun one and it's an important one when we look back on this twenty twenty five season that's about to begin. What do you think the overarching draft strategy is that we're going to say dominated this year.

00:16:47
Speaker 3: So I don't know if you'll hear this answer anywhere else, but I think the one I'm gonna go with is going to.

00:16:54
Speaker 4: Be a.

00:16:56
Speaker 3: Like maybe we'll start getting super on all the rookies all the time, Like I think maybe the rookies will be part of this story here. We could very well be on the precipice of a third consecutive year where potentially a rookie tight end has a monster Fantasy football role. Like I'm a big Tyler Warren fan. I think he could have a huge impact. And we were talking for so long about how a rookie tight end could do nothing, and here we are maybe three years with that happening, and then just the way that things have gone, like Agbuca obviously his opportunity right out of the gate. We've got Genty who almost gets left off half the boards just because he's so solidified as that number one at running back. But it's like but but Hampton obviously, And I just wonder if, like kind of my drafting strategy this year has been like I want those mystery bags at the rookie, you know, taking shots on rookies getting the value later in the draft and just realizing, you know, now we even see what Pat Bryant in Denver is going to more of an opportunity than maybe we thought. So I do wonder if maybe we'll look back and say, man, you know, and probably swing the pendulum too far as we often do, but maybe that'll be some of the storyline this year. I don't know.

00:18:10
Speaker 2: I love that answer.

00:18:12
Speaker 1: That's something that I dug into on an episode this summer where I looked at how ADP has sort of morphed with rookies, and it's happening like at least compared to you know, like five six years ago. Like we're definitely drafting rookies earlier than we were before. Especially at running back. We're not We're that's been the first position to sort of give in and make sense. We're like yeah, right, like we're like sure, we'll take a second round running back, third round running back, whatever. And it's starting to happen at wide receiver. It's just that so far to your point, like we haven't seen it be a bad idea, right right, Like when you go back and you look at how these guys finished and how they finished versus cost. The rookies are are awesome, Like they're some of the best bets that you can make, and so you might be right, like, maybe if we get another good season, like this is just another And I do think that when you stack them like that, when you get year after year after year, that's probably just another thing that people think about in their head and they're like, oh, man, well and you.

00:19:10
Speaker 3: You look at like success rate for players drafted in whatever eleven, twelve, thirteenth round. I find myself more and more just wanting to like shoot a shot at three or four rookies in a row potentially, right, and because because the swing to the upside is so high on some of those potential outcomes, if two of them don't pan out and two of them do, that's way better than four mediocre picks in the eleventh through the fifteenth. So I don't know, we'll see what happens if they deliver or not.

00:19:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be I think this year's gonna be really interesting too at running back, just because it's such a good class and there were you know, I did say this offseason, I was like, technically, we don't have any data that shows that like, or at least from what I was studying, that like deep running back classes equate to running backs getting drafted later in drafts, right like, just because it's it's hard to really measure that, because we'd have to have some sort of measurement of like sentiment about the draft class, and that just doesn't necessarily exist. With that being said, I think that we could see that happening here a little bit. There's just so many good running backs, and I think that there's so many good Day three guys that not only had good talent profiles, but also the alignment of opportunity too, is there?

00:20:21
Speaker 2: And so yeah, I.

00:20:22
Speaker 1: Think that's a really really interesting answer and one that folks will definitely be thinking about as the season goes on.

00:20:27
Speaker 2: Let's talk about quarterback.

00:20:29
Speaker 1: Is this a year where it could be a good I'm gonna pat myself in the back late round back year or is it not? And then are are there are there any Are there any quarterbacks that you're eyeing late right now?

00:20:42
Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of late round I wouldn't want to be really stuck in the middle at all this year. I tend to lean towards like the taking the shot on kind of the back end of those top five. I don't know if you have a Burrow in that group, but I'd be fine taken the best value on the you know, the Lamar, Jaden Hurtz, Allen Burrow group, or just punting straight through the middle and you know Dak is sitting out there and it's a tough start to the season, but you know it's in a track we saw, we did it two years ago. I've kind of been you know, blowing the horn on maybe Jordan love Yep. I love that, you know, banged up, didn't really get to run the football much last year, had the QB five finish. But there's other there's other exciting names, Like there's players that you actually draft and you're like, man, this could work out, Like Drake may like bow Nicks, Caleb Even, I mean, uh, maybe you pair two of them with the last couple of picks of the draft and you take that shot. I I think, uh, I think it's really interesting to see, you know, some of those names in the back half being so young and having the upside. I think it could work out this year for sure. I think the harder picks are players that we really like like Baker. You know, I love Baker. I loved what he did for my team last year. But it's like you got to spin up on Baker, right, does he throw forty touchdowns? Again? There are bigger question marks and risks there. I hate being in that middle round where you're like, I'm locking this guy in as my starter, but there is volatility, so right, I think that there are some names I definitely take a shot on Late.

00:22:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, I see the quarterback position pretty similarly with the Burrow thing.

00:22:26
Speaker 2: I have him sort of in his own tier after.

00:22:28
Speaker 3: I think that's fair. Yeah, that's fair.

00:22:30
Speaker 1: And part of it to me is I just don't think he should be going as close as he's going to Jalen Hurts because I Philadelphia could throw the ball one hundred and twenty more times this year than they did last year. And Hurts obviously has that floor with the rushing and we know that the rushing touchdowns will be there, and then Burrow. Like nothing against Burrow, it's just that if he's going to go close to Hurts, I'm going to always take Hurts.

00:22:52
Speaker 2: I think that's fair all environments and stuff.

00:22:54
Speaker 1: But let me ask this, Like Mahomes is usually the next guy after Burrow, right, and and we could say Baker after that or some more, you know, some more, maybe maybe things change a little bit because of all the injuries going on with the Tampa Bay wide receivers.

00:23:10
Speaker 2: But like, let's just use Jordan Love as the example here.

00:23:13
Speaker 1: What do you think the odds are zero to one hundred percent and you can just split this like sixty forty in Mahomes's favor whatever, between Mahomes and Jordan Love of who would outperform the other one in fantasy football this.

00:23:24
Speaker 3: Year, I'm probably fifty to fifty.

00:23:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like I don't think it's that dramatic, right, Like.

00:23:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's a good argument, right, I think it's fifty fifty.

00:23:35
Speaker 1: There's just so many of those dudes, Jordan Love or Justin Herbert or whoever, like whoever ends up like I've been doing a Kyler Yeah right right, Yeah, you could keep naming all that.

00:23:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's just.

00:23:48
Speaker 1: There's just dudes everywhere, and I'm doing like I'm doing super Flex dress. I think that this is most exploitable in super Flex this year because I just s as anecdotally, I'm in a few right now, and they're slows, and you know, if I don't get a top four pick where I can just get one of the big quarterbacks like yea, and even you know, even if you want to get a Burrow in like the late first and in the second, that's understandable. But I'm in these drafts and instead of opting for these quarterbacks, I'm just piling up these elite wide receivers and really good running backs, and still in the fifth and sixth round, I'm getting Justin Herbert and Jordan Love as my two quarterbacks, you know, like at like QB seventeen, QB nineteen type price tags. And I'm saying to myself, that's a massive value versus the team that just got Patrick Mahomes in the late second, early.

00:24:31
Speaker 3: Third, you know, like that makes so much sense.

00:24:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, And so like I just see this really really flat quarterback landscape where sure we could say maybe we favor Mahomes maybe, but like you said, it's probably not nearly as dramatic.

00:24:46
Speaker 2: Especially look what he's done the last couple of years, right.

00:24:48
Speaker 3: He's been a He's been a major problem the last couple of years because you're so committed to him and then you never take him.

00:24:52
Speaker 2: Out of your lineup exactly exactly. That's it.

00:24:54
Speaker 1: That's also a huge problem is that you don't feel a good part at least I should say about later on quarterback.

00:24:59
Speaker 2: You don't feel so committed to these guys.

00:25:01
Speaker 1: Where you're like, oh, I got to start this guy each and every week, whereas you could, you know, go with a situation where you draft the quarterback, you're starting him in good matchups and you just pick up another guy maybe if he's in a bad matchup and you kind of go from there. You're not really doing that typically with a Mahomes or a Baker, if you're taking them in the top eight.

00:25:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, you feel so committed to them, and especially Mahomes with the history in Fantasy right, like when you've done it before. I think I think we went through this with Russell Wilson one time in Seattle this trip where like he was drafted I don't know if it was fourth, fifth, sixth round, and it was like every week he was killing you. Every week. You had to keep playing him because you're projecting in your head all the preceding seasons. So you take you know, you're so rigid on it. It is just it is one of the advantages of, like you said, the later round quarterback situation, and it is also one of the fears with Burrow, like you said, because yeah, like I don't like I did bring this up on the show recently about like are we viewing Baker and Burrow two differently because it's like Burrow, we're willing to say, hey, he's in this I guess Aaron Rodgers phase of his career, where like forty touchdowns is like a preconceived right guarantee, whereas like Baker just did it and it's like, oh, he's definitely regressing. It's like, wait, forty's hard to hit. I think it's eleven times in the last ten years, So we're just gonna foregone conclusion Burrow has forty, but Baker's not going to get forty. I just feel like that's a little bit maybe inconsistent, and maybe that's why those four top guys really need to be the locks and then Burrow can kind of float around, yeah, and be the guy that you definitely take if you have chase, because that would be really fun. But it's interesting because like you said that there's probably eight or ten guys late that you could put them in almost any order and make the argument as to why they outperform the other person.

00:26:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just think people need to like open their minds a little bit about how volatile. Like I did this study in the Draft Guide, and I found that if you split up quarterback points into rushing points per game and passing points per game, rushing points per game year over year has a correlation are squared of like sixty ish percent.

00:27:01
Speaker 2: Right, so it's pretty strong.

00:27:02
Speaker 1: Pretty solid, which makes sense because the same dudes are running every season, and the same dudes are not running every season.

00:27:08
Speaker 3: Right, When it.

00:27:08
Speaker 1: Comes to passing, the correlation is point zero three, it's three percent. There's there's basically no correlation. And of course, you know you can look at the individual circumstance and say that I got again a guy like Burrow. We should feel more confident that Burrow in this situation, horrible defense, great pass catchers, like, of course we're gonna project him better. But I do think it speaks just the natural volatility of how touchdowns are scored, where a guy could have an eighty yard bomb that goes down to the one and it's it's scored as fewer points than a one yard touchdown pass. You know, it's just the way that it works in the stupid game that we play.

00:27:43
Speaker 3: Matt Ryan MVP season.

00:27:45
Speaker 2: That's right.

00:27:45
Speaker 3: We didn't get a bunch of them. We got that one.

00:27:47
Speaker 1: Right exactly, and like we and this is exactly why, you know, last year when CJ. Stroud got steamed up into the early rounds, it was an obvious more of an obvious fade just because it's not something that it's very sustainable when the rushing production isn't there.

00:28:03
Speaker 2: And so I look at a player like Stroud, I look at a player pick your.

00:28:06
Speaker 1: Poison, whoever the To me, it's like, whoever the falling value is in your individual draft at that that you know is capable enough, just go after that, dude. Or if it's the you know, a second year quarterback with a men's upside, just because of the ambiguity and us not seeing it all yet, whether it's Caleb or bo Nix or Drake May, whoever falls you know, go for that. But yeah, it's just it's it's weird to me that people get fixated on, you know, some of these pocket passers, and it's the market starting to see through it all.

00:28:35
Speaker 2: But it's still happening every year, you.

00:28:36
Speaker 3: Know, yep, no, it's right, And yeah, there's a lot of names out there this year. So Stroud, man, that was a tough year. You saw it happening, and he was an easy fade for us, but man, he was the excitements there. It might be a boat, right, you can't have the next Mahomes. It's it's just too tantalizing.

00:28:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, And to be fair, I don't think anyone was you know, I don't want to be captain hindsight and be like, oh I knew that CJ. Stroud was going to average thirteen Fantasy fils per game. No, whatever, it was right, But it's more so just you know, you're just playing probability and saying that I'm going to be lower than you know, where other people are drafting him, or I'm gonna be higher whatever. But I think I don't know, it sounds like you're a go big or go home at.

00:29:11
Speaker 2: Quarterback this year.

00:29:13
Speaker 3: That's the way it feels. Yeah, Yeah, that's absolutely the way it feels. Yeah.

00:29:16
Speaker 2: I think so too.

00:29:16
Speaker 1: Something that I've also thrown around over the last month is the fact that this wide receiver two, wide receiver three range, so guys. You know in that like wide receiver fifteen to forty range, it's a wide range, but.

00:29:29
Speaker 2: In that area, I think that we are going to find a lot of make or break type picks.

00:29:35
Speaker 1: So I got to ask you in that range, who do you like the most at wide receiver this year?

00:29:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there's a there's a pile of names. I think one of the ones we were just talking about when we were doing the footcast this afternoon that I or maybe it was the show this morning. It all blinds together anymore. Yeah, but it's DK Metcalf right, like, because I think he's outside the top fifteen, right, he's probably around twenty. It's just really hard to look at his situation and you know, barring injury, see a target share and a total target number that probably surpasses everything he's ever had. And just listening to comments from like Ben Roethlisberger watching camp, like, I just don't know who you throw the ball to other than DK Metcalf in Pittsburgh, And there's tremendous fear I think with Arthur Smith being Arthur Smith. But that's also that category that you said fifteen to forty, where you know Travis Hunter's in that mix. Tetarrow is in that mix. Those are those rookies that would be fun to take a shot at. Pickens on the new team is in that mix. Ridley, who still put up a thousand with nothing last year. You know, cam Ward is there and I think he's an interesting kind of maybe post hype sleeper. At least that would be my case because I made him my guy last year and they didn't work out. But Rome's in that group and other sophomore, so yeah, I think it's interesting. It definitely. We kind of had the conversation like how somebody asked us in a mailbag show, like how late if I wanted to wait on wide receiver, could I wait? You know, and you'd feel comfortable. And it's kind of we're kind of sitting there going well in the in the if you wait till the third round, you're in that Marvin world maybe, but if you keep waiting, you're still in the DK world.

00:31:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, which is which is probably not far off from the Marvin It's not.

00:31:14
Speaker 3: I mean that's the same. It's like the Mahomes argument with the other guys. They could be exactly the same. And like, I'm a huge Jamison Williams fan, he's in that group. Like, yeah, so I think that you could wait a little while if you needed to, and pile them up and throw a few rookies in there, and maybe you'd be happy. I don't. I don't know. Debo might even be fine.

00:31:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, Like there's a lot of depth in that, in that range, and it's.

00:31:38
Speaker 2: So flat, like you said, where I feel bad.

00:31:40
Speaker 1: Like I don't there's no between them, yeah right, I don't want to reach for Marvin Harrison Junior or Garrett Wilson, you know, I don't. I don't feel great about reaching those guys when I know that the next round I can get a George Pickens or you know, a Jamison Williams like you said. And so I do think that like that third round is really a for me. It's around like JSN. I draw the line because I think, yeah, talent is pretty undeniable and he's.

00:32:04
Speaker 2: Just really good.

00:32:05
Speaker 1: But I can even understand someone wanting to throw JSN into that bucket just because of the court Mike.

00:32:10
Speaker 3: Mike, Mike's scared of him more than I am. And I'm like, oh, you know, it's you're on the.

00:32:14
Speaker 1: Fence, right right, So like I cannot even understand that, and so are there any So actually, let me throw this to you because later on perspectives. The intent here is for me to throw some of my takes that I've had and to see what other analysts might think about it. Now, with there being such immense upside among that group of wide receivers, I've sort of in the way that I've ranked and the way that I've talked about these guys, this is something that I've really done over the last month month and a half. I've really started to push away and push down the players who I see are more floor play and not ceiling plays.

00:32:48
Speaker 3: Right.

00:32:49
Speaker 1: And so the three that come to mind, or two that come to mind, I'll say, would be Zay Flowers as one and Courtland Sutton as another. Now, the Courtland Sutt one might be a little bit controversial.

00:33:01
Speaker 2: The Zay one seems like you agreed with immediately.

00:33:04
Speaker 3: One hundred percent. Zay is somebody somebody said, like, is that the weakest stack you can draft is the Lamar z Flower stack. And it's weird because you don't want to, like, I don't want to disparage what Zay brings to the Ravens, right, it's just for what he does, but for fantasy, it's like, yeah, I think the differentiator between him and Sutton like and I can see the Suton argument to maybe, you know, the running game, they had nothing last year that should get going in Denver, you have a lot of talent in the younger wide receivers. At least Sutton could score ten times one hundred percent.

00:33:38
Speaker 1: That's the That's absolutely the fear with Sutton is is that what if he just has the team's passing receiving touch.

00:33:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know if you can believe in Bonix without believing Sutton can get to eat the ten. I think that's a cinim fair. But Zay Flowers, it's like, you know, we've done this a couple of years. We kind of know what Zay Flowers is. I feel like, and if if he scored eight to ten times, I'd be blown away shocked if that happened.

00:34:04
Speaker 1: I mean, the Ravens had forty one passing touchdowns last year and Zay Flowers had not just not only did he only score four times, he had an expected touchdown total that was like four point two or something. So it's not even like it's not even like, oh, they were using.

00:34:18
Speaker 3: Him a lot well hanging out there, yeah, right.

00:34:21
Speaker 2: Right, He's just not being used there.

00:34:22
Speaker 1: And I do think that's definitely the touchdown side for Sutton is definitely part of what scares me. The side where I come on with Sutton is when I look at that range. One of the things that I always look at is like contingent upside too, Right, So like George Pickens of Ceedee Lamb goes down DeVante Smith is sure. We've seen DeVante Smith get a thirty percent target share without either even just Dallas Goddard not being in the lineup right, So there's multiple outs for DeVante Smith. I don't think Courtland Sutton has that really right, So he doesn't really have that kind of contingent upside. And then like you said, there's the arguably probably more competition for target. It's just in terms of the talent lel so Evan Ingram being there. And I'm a big Pat Ryan guy. I think Marvin Mims could take a step and Troy Franklin's having a good yeah, and then they have this really good offensive line and they invest in their running backs and they have an elite defense and.

00:35:15
Speaker 2: Then all of a sudden, you're like, oh, Courtland Sutton.

00:35:18
Speaker 1: By the way, Cortland Sutton has never finished in PPR points per game higher than wide receiver twenty five in his career, which is which.

00:35:26
Speaker 3: Is shocked, That's that's wild. I used to be I had kind of given up on Courtland Sutton, right. I had definitely gotten to that point I think a lot of us had where it's like, this is never gonna happen, right, But yeah, he does feel like he is very dependent on the touchdowns. Yeah, yeah, so you're not going to have that kind of ceiling.

00:35:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, And that's definitely my fear in saying I wouldn't say that I'm like full fade.

00:35:48
Speaker 2: But at the same time, I have a.

00:35:49
Speaker 1: Lot of the play, like a lot of the younger players ahead of him at this point, I'm drafting a mecha BUCA ahead of Courtland Sutton, which might be a hot take, but I just I could see it, you know, see the situation really formulating well for him at the moment.

00:36:05
Speaker 3: So is DJ Moore in that group?

00:36:07
Speaker 1: Yes, I was gonna as if you remember wondering, if you remember, I was like stuttering and I was like two others three, there's three.

00:36:14
Speaker 2: DJ Moore.

00:36:15
Speaker 3: Djmore is the other one.

00:36:16
Speaker 4: Yeah.

00:36:16
Speaker 2: DJ Moore is the other.

00:36:17
Speaker 1: One where the more thing to me is about just I don't know how he's going to be deployed. I just there's so many question marks about that side, the x's and o's side, and that just scares me enough to be like, yeah, I'm gonna be eight wide receiver spots lower than the market with DJ Moore.

00:36:37
Speaker 3: He is, He's in such a weird situation. It was I was just scanning the names, and I was looking at a name that I thought rang that same bell as flowers in Sutton, and that was the one for me was DJ Moore where I could see both outcomes, I could see myself because I just don't end up drafting him. Yeah, I haven't mocked drafted DJ Moore. I haven't really drafted DJ Moore. And I could see myself being like three weeks into the season going you know what, was I thinking, this is gonna be another ninety plus catch season and he and he plays well, and then I can see him just not really having a place like you said, I mean, taking a bunch of short area targets and carries out of the backfield and Luther Burdens involved in Loveland's involved, and Rome's involved. So h yeah, he feels like one of those players where I just never have the like, my emotional state to take him is never.

00:37:23
Speaker 1: There, yeah, right right, And but like at the same time, you look at where he's being drafted, it's usually amongst like the Metcalfs of the world, the jm O's of the world, and then Roma Dunsay is going around or two later, and to me, the ceiling outcomes are actually I would argue that Roma Dunsay has a higher ceiling.

00:37:41
Speaker 3: Outcome than That's what I Yes, you know.

00:37:43
Speaker 1: And like you have kind of a redundant asset with more to Luther burden not in the way that they're gonna line up per se, but in the short outlet for kayleb Williams, you know, like the lower aid dot kind of looks, and you know, last year DJ Moore had a lot of those sort of manufactured touches, And I honestly part of me has a problem too when you compare the three Bears wide receivers last year and everyone wants to just like crap on Keenan Allen all the time, and Keenan Allen had a better targets per route run rate last year than DJ Moore did, and his yards prout run wasn't that far off from DJ Moore. So either the mark is really wrong about Keenan Allen, which I think they are kind of wrong about Keenan Allen then, but then they're probably a little bit wrong about DJ Moore as well, if we're going to compare and contrast in that way.

00:38:29
Speaker 3: I think More will be twenty nine next year and those other three guys on the team are twenty one to twenty three years old. It's like you got a new head coach, you're building this offense. Like, how integral to this offense will DJ Moore be this year? I don't know. I mean he's always done kind of what's asked of him. Mm hmmm, which I mean, he's always been a player that I think we know can bring you bigger numbers than he ever brings you except for two years ago. I think the yeah wide receiver six year But yeah, he's just a weird player to draft because it's a vogue for DJ Moore and it's a vote for Kleb, and it's a vote for Ben Johnson and the Bears, and that's a it's just tough to be in.

00:39:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and let's be honest, the vibes are a little off with with with DJ Moore.

00:39:11
Speaker 3: Yeah they are. They are. You know, I'd rather take Rome for sure.

00:39:15
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, Rome at value for me is easy.

00:39:18
Speaker 1: You know, even if I look at like my best ball portfolio, I think Rome room is one of my highest rostered and DJ Moore is not.

00:39:23
Speaker 2: You know, It's just an easier, easier click to make.

00:39:26
Speaker 1: Let's talk about a rookie running back who is steaming up draft boards going absolutely nuts, may or may not be one of my m VP picks.

00:39:37
Speaker 3: Okay, so we'll see. I don't know.

00:39:39
Speaker 2: I haven't decided yet.

00:39:40
Speaker 4: I haven't.

00:39:40
Speaker 2: I haven't fully decided.

00:39:41
Speaker 3: You're teasing. It sounds like on your lips.

00:39:44
Speaker 1: Teazing so that people then go to the ballers and they hear what I have to say about an MVP this year.

00:39:49
Speaker 3: That's right, We do have an MVP show coming up, that's right, featuring JJ.

00:39:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, hopefully not young eight year old JJ and the I don't know if that'll ever go away.

00:39:59
Speaker 4: You I don't think it will. Last year I did call you guys loser before, okay, and so at least that was justified this year. Maybe I'll come with kindness and see if it changes or not.

00:40:10
Speaker 1: But regardless, Travon Henderson is that players getting steamed up like crazy.

00:40:14
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna play a little game with.

00:40:15
Speaker 3: You and guy.

00:40:17
Speaker 2: You guys like games over there at the ballers.

00:40:18
Speaker 1: Sure, I'm gonna play a game where I'm gonna say, Travon Henderson or running.

00:40:22
Speaker 3: Back acts, Okay, go on.

00:40:24
Speaker 2: And we'll and we'll go, we'll go.

00:40:27
Speaker 1: We'll go player by player here, I'm gonna start with Travon Henderson versus Chuba Hubbard.

00:40:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, disclaimer and.

00:40:36
Speaker 1: We'll say, we'll say, we'll go with full PPR here to make it even more Oh gosh, you had to do that.

00:40:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're gonna go give me Travion, give me Travy.

00:40:43
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, this is gonna full PPR.

00:40:45
Speaker 3: You'll give me Travy.

00:40:46
Speaker 2: This is where it's gonna be more interesting.

00:40:47
Speaker 3: Give me a give me in a standard.

00:40:50
Speaker 1: Exact let's go Travion or Kenneth. Well, actually, before we go, let's go Travion or Breisee Hall.

00:40:58
Speaker 3: I'll take Travon there, I I'm in a draft right now, and I'm telling you it's an expert draft, and all of us have just I ended up having to draft Ba's Hall. Yeah, he dropped four or five rounds from ADP. Nobody wants to take him right now. I know that.

00:41:12
Speaker 1: And that's why with Breece, and I know we'll get a little off topic here. I had him originally because he checks so many boxes on paper in terms of like before a lot of the you know, swit backfield stuff and before we saw the ineptitude of the offense and all that, like the receiving stuff is there, the talent profiles there, the existing productions there, like everything's there that.

00:41:32
Speaker 2: We would want from like a top eighteen running back.

00:41:35
Speaker 1: But then you start to see all the negatives and my I'm trying to be rational as possible with bree And if you look at historical data and if you assume, like what kind of target shair do you.

00:41:48
Speaker 2: Think Breese Hall is going to have this year.

00:41:51
Speaker 1: With justin fields, justin fields, but also the lack of anything outside where we see that last year he was at like thirteen point nine percent I think last year.

00:42:01
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I don't like this leaving on third down thing, not that third down's the be all end all. I don't know, probably probably around the same place.

00:42:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, so like we'll say thirteen to fifteen percent.

00:42:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's probably where i'd go.

00:42:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, so if you look at at historical like this is more PPR focus, I would say, because it does go down a little bit in half, but it's still relevant half. Like if you look at players who had thirty to fifty percent running back rush shares and thirteen to fifteen percent target shares. I only know this off the top of my head because I.

00:42:29
Speaker 2: Literally wrote a newsletter about it yesterday. I'm not that freakish.

00:42:33
Speaker 1: But so so when you look at players who are in that sort of bucket, they outperform the players who are in the fifty to seventy percent running back rush are with an eleven percent sub sub eleven percent target.

00:42:46
Speaker 3: That's very interesting. So it's like interesting.

00:42:48
Speaker 1: It just goes back to the fact that I think the fantasy market still doesn't fully appreciate what a target does for a running backs bottom line. Yeah, and especially in the you know that PPR format, which is why it's so interesting to me. How not to say that it's bad steam and bad hype. But there's a lot of that going on this year. Whether it's Braylan Allen, whether it's Jordan Mason, Tank Bigsby. You know, these players who who we can see an outcome where they're relevant, but I don't know how relevant.

00:43:21
Speaker 2: Like that's the big.

00:43:22
Speaker 1: Question for me, you know, like interesting, I don't know how high, just because the target share ceiling might not be there for them.

00:43:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, those are all players that, like if you're talking about Aaron Jones, you're talking about Brice Hall. The vibes aren't positive because we no longer have the potential for our dreams to come to fruition, right, for them to be the next you know, to be that top five, top ten YEP draft pick for the future. So the sentiment is turning on them. But if the opportunity doesn't change, the production should be good, is what you're saying.

00:43:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, and like and like also, so if what if we're kind of wrong with some of the projections, and what if we're wrong with like what if bres Hall still sees fifty to sixty percent of the team's running back rushes.

00:44:09
Speaker 2: He was at like sixty eight percent or something last year. I think I think that.

00:44:12
Speaker 3: Still catches a ton of passes.

00:44:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, and still catches a ton of passes, and you know, yeah, his touchdown ceiling is going to be capped because Braylan might see more work of the goal line and Justin Fields will see some their offense is gonna be that good. But I still see an outcome where he's top eighteen at the position in that full PPR format. Like I'm assuming you're comfortably Cuba over Breeze based on this conversation.

00:44:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would be. Yeah, that's where I'm at right now. And I'll say Trevion too, just because yeah, you know, explosive plays, Yeah, potential for him to run away with it. But but it's it is one of those things where we do get we get fatigued with certain players, especially ones that were extremely highly drafted in Dynasty historically burned us and you feel like you've been burned or they're not what they should be or yeah, you know, that's still a tough place to play right now, and.

00:45:01
Speaker 2: I wish, I wish I like the offense more.

00:45:03
Speaker 1: I know Trayvon Henderson is basically from a peripheral standpoint, probably Breeze Hall just in the better offense.

00:45:09
Speaker 3: That's that does Yeah, you know, yeah, it makes sense.

00:45:12
Speaker 2: That's that's how I'm start.

00:45:13
Speaker 1: That's why I'm like, yeah, I'm gonna rank Travion over Breese because he's probably gonna see a similar backfield share and target share, but he's get a more attractive offense.

00:45:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, the path has become much clearer for Travion really quickly. I think there was a part in the early off season where I was like, well, no, you know, they're they paid Remandre and and he's you know, he's gonna be productive. It's Mike Rayboy's gonna make him go in there and earn it, and you know, God forbid he fumbles all of that type of stuff. But Nope, give me the give me the sexy new thing. Okay.

00:45:44
Speaker 2: So you're you're Travion over Cuba and Breese.

00:45:46
Speaker 1: This is full pr Travion versus Kenneth Walker.

00:45:51
Speaker 3: I hate ken Walker, Give me Travion. Okay.

00:45:53
Speaker 2: Is that is that injury? Injury related? Mostly?

00:45:55
Speaker 3: For Yeah, it is injury. It's fatigue, it's charbonn a belief, it is it is uh fool me Thrice. I mean, it's all of those things. I'm just Mike is still in. Mike is still in. He loves those sexy, uh broken tackles and yards after contact numbers. I just I think I'm just done.

00:46:13
Speaker 1: I'm I'm in a tough spot with him because I like him a lot and I had him as a target and I still do technically, but it's hard to ignore what's going on with Shark and I've always loved sharpon ay, so it's it's just it's tough for me. But I just to me, it's Walker in that scheme. If Walker's healthy, I think he dominates just in that in that scheme, that that big playability, that that zone scheme.

00:46:34
Speaker 3: It would be wonderful to see. I think the fantasy community has been waiting for sure healthy ken Walker for a long time, and I sure have. It's so hard with the injury stuff, Like we always have these these debates over it because it's like, you know, because Mike has CMC at one on one, yeah, yeah, and it's like three of the last five years he's killed you two of the last five ys one year league yep. You know, open that door, figure out what you're getting on the other side, T Higgins, ken Walker, and then you get these just trickles of like ken Walker, it's part of the plan. He's not practicing today, it's part of the plan. It's part of the and then t against the day it's like, of course he's good, but like there's names you just don't want to show up there in the preseason. So exactly, so give me Travion there. I'm still all Travion here.

00:47:15
Speaker 2: Yeah. It's like it's like Taj Spears and another one like of.

00:47:18
Speaker 3: Course yeah, yeah, it's just like naturally all right, marsh.

00:47:20
Speaker 2: On Lloyd, Yeah, marsha On Lloyd. That's the good poster child of it.

00:47:24
Speaker 1: All right, So you have Travy, you have Travian over Kenneth Walker, Schuba and Breis Hall, James Cook.

00:47:30
Speaker 3: That's that's a good that's a good question. I think that one would come down to how much you believe in New England and that offense, because obviously we believe in Buffalo Boy. That that one's close. I'd probably go James Cook. Still, if it was Travion is one of those dudes where it's like, man, if he's my RB two or three, it's like I'm gonna take him over those guys. If he's gotta be my one. I'd I probably feel safer with Cook.

00:47:50
Speaker 2: And then and then a Mari and Hampton on the sumia have Hampton over over Travion.

00:47:54
Speaker 3: I would go Hampton, Yeah, I would go Hampton. But Travion is I mean, it's one of those tantalizing rookies talking about earlier. It's just it's I think the dude is he's made to play. Yeah, he's made to play football. He is super talented, big playability. Not the competition that you have to worry about. I don't think. I don't know if you're in that same camp. But you know, it was funny the other day. I think there was a quote with Ramandre and Gibson we're talking if you saw that presser where he's like they're both basically saying, yeah, I don't mind splitting time in the backfield, and Gibbson's like, yeah, I love splitting time. And then and then I told Mike that and Mike goes, yeah, they're gonna split each other snaps, and I was like, yeah, you're probably right about that.

00:48:34
Speaker 1: It's like it's like two kids pretending to be their parent for work or something like that, you know.

00:48:39
Speaker 3: And and Travian is just like, okay, yeah, got you. Yeah, we're all a team.

00:48:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. All right, let's talk about some ambiguous backfield.

00:48:46
Speaker 1: Since we're talking running back here, how are you going to handle the following backfields?

00:48:50
Speaker 2: I'll go one by one here.

00:48:51
Speaker 1: We'll start with Washington, which, by the way, speaking of speaking of insane co hosts, how often how often do you sit on that show and you're like, we need to take the microphone away from Jason, Like, you.

00:49:02
Speaker 3: Know, he's got a he's got a magic uh a magic mind. I think somebody, somebody gave a comment the other day and they were just like, how is Jason the smartest and dumbest guy on the show all the time. I'm like, I don't know, He's got a magical ability to do both of those things. But you're talking about Bill Krosky saw Krafski I was dying. Yeah, so yeah, it was. It was outrageous and what an offseason, perfect fantasy storyline he is.

00:49:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, uh, let's talk about him. So, so are you in out?

00:49:35
Speaker 4: Uh?

00:49:35
Speaker 3: Do you?

00:49:35
Speaker 2: Are you more in on Eckler? Like how are you looking?

00:49:37
Speaker 3: Yeah? No, I yeah, I saw some of these these backfields and It's like first thing I do when I think about him is I throw up because I don't want to make a decision because I can't. They're really hard to weed through. I think the important thing with with krosskey Merit is like keep him in the sleeper box. I think, for I don't think I'm not out of the camp that like, you know, he's the anointed one in this offense. So I mean Brian Robinson, you know, they talk about maybe they were trying to get rid of him last year too. Didn't like the scheme fit. He's really not bringing something unique to this team in terms of first and second down. So you know, I think Dan Quinn said today or yesterday it was like we see Chris Rodriguez on the goal line and then you've got Austin Eckler there to take up a bunch of snaps, and you know, I think Cross ky Merrit gets worked into that group. You know, if Eckler went down, which is not you know, unforeseen or impossible like all of a sudden, I'm really interested, I think in krossky Mera. But right now he's he's still in that sleeper category. I think Eckler's the back to own at a value, but you know it's up for debate and you can shoot a shot.

00:50:40
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:50:41
Speaker 1: I saw, like I had this conversation with Evan Silva when he was on My Player's a Target episode, and I think that people kind of just assume that Krossky Merritt is like wasn't going to impact Brian Robinson, that he was going to impact Austin Eckler more. But if you look at like his body of work in college, it was very much more early down and not much pass catching stuff, you know, Like Eckler also last year, if there's one thing he was good at it, he was still really efficient as a pass catcher. So yeah, I'm with you that that Eckler the ground too. Yeah, Like I think inefficiency. I think if you're if you're looking at like pure value from a a median projection standpoint, Eckler seems like the go to right, just a guy who's gonna probably outpace his ADP. Is he going to be a top twenty four guy? Highly doubtful. Can you draft him at RB fifty five or whatever the heck he's at and get you know, RB thirty five for forty production out of him? I think that's what we're looking at, probably with Eckler and then Crosskey Merritt being like a are you interested in Chris Rodriguez at all? Like, do do you see that as a one to one with with b Rob Or is that I.

00:51:46
Speaker 3: Think that's in the I think that's in the range of possibilities. For sure. He hasn't had a lot of opportunity. You know, he's definitely one of those players if he's not on a dynasty roster, you got to throw him on there and make sure that you you wait and see. A lot of these are wait and see backfields. Yeah, I look at that almost a little bit like Jalen Warren, who's probably one of the other backfields we'll talk about. But it's like you probably don't have, like you said, you probably have kind of a safer production floor. Yeah, without the excitement of a Crosskey Merrit being everything or an excitement of a Caleb Johnson. Those are sometimes the harder players to draft. It's more fun and exciting to take the other ones. And then there's always a chance they sit on your bench not being played for four or five six weeks and you going, well, did I did I waste to pick.

00:52:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then you drop them and then they dominate after you drop them, always, always, always, But.

00:52:33
Speaker 2: No, I think it's true.

00:52:34
Speaker 1: Like the difference I think from like Crosskey Merritt and like Caleb Johnson is that hopefully, let's cross our fingers that this doesn't get Like remember when Darwin.

00:52:42
Speaker 2: Thompson was getting hyped up.

00:52:43
Speaker 3: Yes, wasn't he like a six round pick at one point with Darwin?

00:52:46
Speaker 4: Yeah?

00:52:47
Speaker 3: Kansas City, Yeah, training camp.

00:52:49
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:52:49
Speaker 1: And that's what I fear is gonna happen with JCM is like like he's gonna be and already best in the best ball streets, like he's a single digit round pick often, like it's not an uncommon thing to see. And and that's where I'm like, Okay, this is getting a little bit, a little bit out of hand. But you know, I do think that if people are rational about it, I would think that Krosky Merriott might be a more attractive value pick than like a Caleb Johnson. But let's talk about the Pittsburgh backfield because yeah, like are you are you into Caleb?

00:53:17
Speaker 2: Is that your go to? Or are you just avoiding the backfield in general?

00:53:20
Speaker 4: Yeah?

00:53:20
Speaker 3: I mean I just took him in a draft. He went a couple picks after, like the Aaron Jones Mason thing in Minnesota. It was it was later in a super flex ninth round, felt like he was the best value on the board at the time. Jason is super into Caleb Johnson. I wasn't as big of a fan of the college tape. I think, you know, he's obviously walking into a huge opportunity. I worry about the beginning of the year, for sure. I worry about Jayalen Warren and Kenny Gainwell and the kind of like, hey, are we trusting him to be out there in past protection with Aaron Rodgers. Those things concern me a little bit. You know, talent has a way of working itself into the lineup, but I guess with the tom and offense and Arthur Smith, I get get a little bit more nervous about Caleb having a true breakout year this year. Yeah, I don't know how you feel about him.

00:54:12
Speaker 1: No, I'm in the same boat. I actually prefer at least especially a value, But I think I straight up prefer Warren at this point in like half in full, just because I'm I'm pretty concerned about the past pro stuff and who's.

00:54:25
Speaker 2: Under center for Pittsburgh.

00:54:27
Speaker 1: Right, Like the first blown protection from Caleb Johnson, it's game over, you know, it's.

00:54:33
Speaker 3: Aaron looks over and says, don't put this guy out here on third down again? Right? Right?

00:54:37
Speaker 1: And not only that, isn't it kind of strange that Arthur Smith had one of the best, the most generational running backs prospects that we've ever seen and he didn't even give him a full workload as a rookie. And strong point not to be fair, Tyler Algira was pretty efficient during that season, so I can't like totally fault it. But at the same time, how confident are we that, like, this is gonna be Caleb Johnson's back when we have some evidence that Arthur Smith does not care about draft capital and does not care about that side.

00:55:06
Speaker 3: No, no, And we got that, We got that evidence that we thought at the time was insane about Johnny Smith and Kyle Pitts turns out he was probably very right about Johnny Smith. So I'm gonna give him credit about that. But it's like, again, that was a draft capital situation where the whole world could have been yelling at you just spent that whatever was Pitt's the fourth pick. Yeah, yeah, so your your early first round pick. And I was like, no, Johnny's the better player. He was right about that. So yeah, I think it's just really really murky and so much can go sideways for Pittsburgh. This offense is going to be, you know, very different with Aaron Rodgers. I do think that Caleb's got staying powered. You know, he could certainly be a Naji Harrison the offense if they want to hand him those opportunities. I just don't know if they're going to do it. So it makes a more nerve wrecking pick. And you know, I I definitely would go Warren as well. Yeah, so I'm with that side. I like Johnson as a prospect. I just I think it's going to be a little bit slow moving. That's my that's my and that that happens.

00:55:59
Speaker 1: So sometimes, yeah, let's go to Jacksonville because you know there's obviously some potential for fantasy production out of there.

00:56:05
Speaker 2: How are you feeling about that backfield?

00:56:07
Speaker 3: Awful? Feeling pretty awful. I had been a long time Travis ct in Truther. We went through last year that was rough Tank Bigsby. You know, right now, it looks like he's going to have a lot of opportunities. First second down, goal line. You know, how many pass how many passes are we getting from Travis' etn that's the big question mark. I mean, you look at Liam Cohen, the success he was able to have last year using you know, obviously Bucky Rashad White, you got tooting in the backfield. I think if we get a top half offense, one of those guys should surprise to the positive side. If we can somehow manufacture that. I think right now I lean Bigsby a little bit, but I hate the lack of pass catching.

00:56:49
Speaker 2: So exactly right.

00:56:50
Speaker 3: It just makes it kind of a disgusting situation for me where I am trying not to take them when they're on the board and somebody else is there.

00:56:57
Speaker 1: I'm still crossing my fingers that we get some movement in Jacksonville trade wise of some sort, whether it's e Tan or Bigsby.

00:57:05
Speaker 3: Out the door.

00:57:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, And because I think they like Laquinn Allen too, who's a great It was an awesome pass catcher from a prospecting standpoint, And if they if they move one of those guys and they are there was actually a quote from Liam Cohen today that was and I don't have it in front of me, but there's something along the lines of like, like, yeah, you don't usually roster for running backs like it, like him just straight up saying it, And who knows, maybe they're maybe la Quinn Allen is the the odd men out and they go that direction. But there's been a little bit of hypes surrounding him, you know, at times throughout the the the off season, and so I.

00:57:38
Speaker 2: Just wonder, and part of me, I'm a big touton guy.

00:57:41
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, yeah, I like I like the tout Yeah, yeah, you know you're trying to decide which joke to go with there.

00:57:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. But I so I like Tooton a lot. I like him.

00:57:51
Speaker 1: I don't have him ranked as the highest, but I think he's the best value of the three, only because I see a path of late season production from him, and I actually think this is my Galaxy brain take. You can tell me, yeah, let's hear it, stupid, I am. I think that the Tank Bigsby stuff, if it's true and real, if Bigsby is the guy that they want to feature on early downs, I kind of prefer that more for the touton agenda than I would for EACHPN because ETN is more of that all purpose kind of back that would be the bell count, whereas Tuton might have some opportunity to jump in there a little bit more and show off.

00:58:31
Speaker 3: As big Be struggles if.

00:58:32
Speaker 1: Bigsby's in there struggles or you know, obviously he's not much of a pass catcher, and maybe there's some opportunity there. So like that's the Galaxy brain take, But I still I'm still keeping an open mind for a trade to happen.

00:58:44
Speaker 3: Yeah. Look, one of the three things that you want out of a backfield, you want the opportunity. We don't know exactly what it is in Jacksonville. You want the goal line opportunity. We think that's one of you think it's biggsb Yeah, but it might not be. It could be Tuton as well, could get opportunities, could be. And then you want to winning football team, you know, and we don't know if that's going to be in the equation for Jacksonville. So nerve wracking to have confidence with that.

00:59:11
Speaker 1: Yes, all right, I'll go one more ambiguous back for real quick Dallas. You know, is Dallas gonna throw the ball eight hundred times this year.

00:59:21
Speaker 2: It might have that.

00:59:22
Speaker 3: The Dallas backfield's a great argument for George Pickens and Dak Trescott and Jake Ferguson and all all of the above. I mean, I I don't know, like, have you have you tuned in yet to sidebar here on Dallas? Have you watched any of the America's Team doctor yet? I've been.

00:59:38
Speaker 2: I just finished the Biggest Loser one that came out.

00:59:40
Speaker 3: Now, Okay, yeah, I want to watch that too, but but yeah, I'm like, uh and was that about Davonte or No, I'm but I'm watching this thing and I'm just like, it's so you know, as Jerry Jones centric. It's all about them from when he bought the team, and there's all these amazing Western music and these characters coming in. But it' it's ak Men and it's Irvin and it's in it and it's but it's like like Jerry's crazy, man, Like that is Jerry's a wild He was crazy then he's crazy now. And some of that crazy is crazy like a fox and he did great things, but a lot of it is just like how stubborn are you? Yeah? How stubborn? Are you with this backfield?

01:00:19
Speaker 1: It's so interesting because it's like he's over compensating for the for Zeke.

01:00:24
Speaker 5: Yes, I know this is that. That's exactly what I was thinking. It's like the world your world was Zeke. It's like, we got to have Zeke. We gotta spin on z we gotta overspin on Zeke, and then we're gonna let Pollard go and now we're just gonna use has Bins.

01:00:36
Speaker 3: It's yes, it's peculiar, it's weird, and maybe it's overcompensating or making up that budgetary item, like the line item in the budget for running backs been spent for five years. It's crazy. I mean, I what did we do last year week? We over committed to Zeke again in the backfield while we were waiting for Dowdell to have some progress and Daubell was the best of the bad right. Uh, it's hard not to look at it this way with with the same the same lens. What is it MafA and Miles Sanders are fighting for one roster spot Jayden Blue, I mean that that would be the shot to me. I mean, I just don't have confidence in Javonte Williams at all, Like I like, what is the outcome that you're hoping for a few zeke weeks like last year, and then somebody else takes over. It's it's gross, man.

01:01:23
Speaker 2: I was.

01:01:24
Speaker 1: I was drafting in the King's Class a couple weekends ago at the Hall of Fame, and in the Snake draft, I went, I went hero RB.

01:01:30
Speaker 2: I took CMC and just a bunch of wide receivers.

01:01:33
Speaker 1: And then I went and Javonte Williams is a fourteen team league, and Javonte Williams was sitting there in like round twelve, and I before I announced the pick, I said, I'm gonna vomit.

01:01:42
Speaker 3: Oh god.

01:01:43
Speaker 2: And I took Javonte.

01:01:45
Speaker 1: Williams only squad only because only because I do think there's a chance that early season production could be there, right, Like, oh, it's just just really garbage twelve points per game for the first three or four weeks this season.

01:01:59
Speaker 3: I'm lot of catches for nine total yards. Yeah, that that type of game.

01:02:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's a full BPR league, so I'm down for that.

01:02:05
Speaker 3: Yeah.

01:02:06
Speaker 1: But but Jayden Blew to me also is the guy that I would I mean, he looked pretty good in the ZAP model. His top comp was like Justice Hill, like it's it's probably that kind of player more than likely. But I think there's still a chance that they sort of deploy him in like a deploy not that he's this talented, but in like a Jamior Gibbsie kind of way right where he's just getting some of those those outlet passes and those those looks out of the backfield. Maybe not a he's not gonna be one hundred and fifty carry guy probably, but maybe one hundred carry guy, and and with like a ten to eleven percent target share as possible even if it's not. I mean, they're gonna throw so much that even if it's an eight percent target share, it could be a lot of targets just because of that.

01:02:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's your best bet at any upside. Yeah. No, Dallas. Dallas backfield, it's bizarre. It's weird, man, And you'd you'd naturally go, oh, they'd be a good place for Brian Robinson to land. But I would say that's like a zero percent chance.

01:02:56
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, it just seems like they're not inner division no way. Yeah, and even even the reporting like it's like there's there's always uh, you know, teams like I think Rassini had a tweet out today of like teams that are would be interested in running backs, and I don't think Dallas is on the list. And it's never Dallas like we're always like it's like every draft we're like, oh, Dallas is going to take a Day two running back.

01:03:15
Speaker 2: Nope.

01:03:15
Speaker 3: So weird, man, it's so weird.

01:03:17
Speaker 1: All right, one more question before I let you go, Yes, sir, who's the one player that everyone needs to leave their draft with this year?

01:03:25
Speaker 3: I will go Jamison Williams.

01:03:27
Speaker 2: Oh, I love that pick.

01:03:28
Speaker 3: I will go Jamison Williams. I the whole offseason, right when it began, I kept waiting to see the ADP move up a little bit more. I just being drafted at his floor. In my opinion, I think missing two games last year really helped this whole offseason. ADP world for him, where you know you're still inside he finished inside the top twenty, but you know being drafted outside that range like Jamison to me is they figured out, I think what to do with him, and I think he's just gonna be out there for so many snaps. You get the big playoffs, you get an offense that you know they could integrate him a little bit more. I'm excited about him. This is a hugely high draft capital talent that just we haven't seen the full full season from him. Yeah.

01:04:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's crazy that he barely I think he had like a twenty percent target chair last year and he's still Yeah, you know it was like a fringe wide receiver too, or in that wide receiver two.

01:04:19
Speaker 3: Yeah. I hope we get more.

01:04:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, just imagine, and they should throw the ball a little bit more this year than they.

01:04:23
Speaker 3: Did last year.

01:04:24
Speaker 2: There's a lot to like, that's my.

01:04:26
Speaker 3: That's my go to, and you're drafting them where hopefully he's your flex, right, Maybe he's just a high upside wide receiver two for you if you go with one of the onesies. But yeah, that's that's my guy.

01:04:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jmo over Courtland Sutton for you.

01:04:40
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah, I'll do that. Yeah, I'll do that.

01:04:42
Speaker 2: I'm all day with that.

01:04:43
Speaker 1: Andy Man, this was this was awesome. It's so good to talk to you. Yeah, it's super fun.

01:04:49
Speaker 3: Man.

01:04:49
Speaker 1: Let everyone know where what you guys are doing, where they can find you all that great stuff.

01:04:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, we just got the podcast rolling, we got the draft kit, going on right now, trying to keep our head above water with all this news, and we'd welcome anybody on board that wants to supplement their JJ yeah with uh with what is it Bill Krossky over here?

01:05:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, just don't know what I'm talking about.

01:05:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, watch out, watch out. We are. We're here to help you have a good time.

01:05:16
Speaker 1: You can find all my stuff over on lround dot com. Draft guide is available for sale. Make sure you suscribe to the podcast, make sure you check out the free newsletter.

01:05:24
Speaker 2: And we're also doing more YouTube stuff YouTube dot com

01:05:27
Speaker 1: Slash at late round ff Andy, thanks again so much, and everyone else thanks for tuning in.