1051: 15 Transactions for Week 11

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Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ Zachera, JJ Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachary Sin in this episode ten fifty one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I won't bore you with anything To open up today's show. It's a super important time of year. Trade deadlines are about to hit and we've got to get these rosters ready for the fantasy playoffs. So let's talk fifteen transactions for Week eleven and Luthor Burden. Alamnez A Kias has run ahead of Luther Burden for most of the season, despite the fact that he's dead last on the team by a wide margin in yards per route run Luthor Burden, according Next Gen Stats, he's getting a full yard of separation per target over Zakias this year. His YAK over expected profile is better too. Burden's a young, explosive wide receiver who scored really, really well in the ZAP model. I really hope the Bears start to give him more work and they might because DJ Moore suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday against the Giants. In turn, Burton had his highest rout chair of the season, which was forty nine percent. That's still not high enough, there's no doubt about that, but it's moving in the right direction. Burton ended up catching all three of his targets for fifty one yards. If DJ Moore were to miss some time, Burden would get more run in that offense, there's no doubt. But even if he doesn't, both data and the eye test suggest that Burden should be playing more than Alamide's a kias right now. Burton's the right type of player to have on your bench this time of year. By Lamar Jackson. Understandably, the fantasy football world, they're going to tell you to buy Derrick Henry this week. He hasn't scored a touchdown a couple of games, and he was vaulted by Justice Hill in Week ten. That touchdown that came on a hurry up play. He'll just happen to be the running back that was on the field at that time. So if you can truly buy low on Derrick Henry, that's not a bad idea. You can go for it. Just don't forget about Lamar Jackson. Jackson hasn't done his typical insane things since returning from his injury. A couple of weeks ago. He's averages twenty five rushing yards per game over his last two, which are two games after that injury. Before the hamstring injury, he was averaging forty one and a half rushing yards per game. But like, think about this for a second, did we really expect him to run that much coming off the injury? In Week nine he was just getting up to speed, and then this past week he faced a reasonable Minnesota front and he also rushed for thirty six yards. He just only found the end zone once through the air. Baltimore's rest of season quarterback schedule, it's arguably the best one in fantasy football. A matchup against Cleveland this week. It's not great, so you could always wait on this transaction if you want, But then they get the Jets, Bengals, Steelers, Bengals again, Patriots, and Packers to end the fantasy season. The only team that really scares me there maybe is Pittsburgh. Maybe, but that's only because the Steelers have played Jackson well in the past, and that game doesn't come in the fantasy playoffs either. If the Jackson manager in your league's feeling a little bit iffy after that QB two outing in week ten, maybe you can get him in a nice price. Ad Alec Pierce. So I shouted out Alec Pierce on a couple of episodes last week. The ten Trends episode talked about him, The Sleeper Show talked about him, and because of that, I probably just should have talked about him on the fifteen Transaction Show after his Week ten performance, though he definitely deserves a shout. Pierce now has thirty five targets over the last four weeks. Michael Pittman, a player that everyone should like in fantasy football, is at thirty two. During that same stretch, Pierce is averaging almost fifteen p per points per game over these four games. Now the Coults are on by this week and then out of that buy they have two rough matchups against the Chiefs and the Texans. After that things do open up a little bit more. And with Pierson by, maybe he's a little bit cheaper than he otherwise would be. Sell Marvin Harrison Junior. So, like I talked about on last week's Mailback episode, this moved to Jacoby Brissett for Arizona. It's a really good thing for Marvin Harrison Junior overall, and we've seen that over the last couple of games, Harrison Juniors hit target shars a thirty four and a half percent and twenty seven point three percent. Those are the two best target shairs of his entire season. He scored twenty two point six and fourteen point three PPR points over those two games. Now, with all that being said, it was a little bit alarming to see Marvin Harrison Junior catch just three of twelve targets on Sunday. And we can't forget that he did play against the Packers with Jacoby Brissett the week prior to this two game stretch. He had an eighteen percent target chair in that game and seven point eight PPR points. Harrison Juniors now scored in back to back games. One of those games, like I talked about last week, was against the best opponent for perimeter wide receivers in the NFL. Moving forward, specifically in the fantasy playoffs, his opponents are not going to be nearly as bad. In Week fifteen, the Cardinals get the Texans. That's a bottom matchup for wide receivers. In Week sixteen, it's Atlanta. That's a team that's been generally good at stopping the pass and then in week seventeen it's Cincinnati. As good of a matchup as the Bengals are, They've been okay against top wide receivers because a cornerback DJ Turner. So if you have Marvin Harrison Junior and you're eyeing the playoffs, this could be a chance to sell high, only if you can truly truly sell high by Trey Benson. Now, I've alluded to Benson being a bye candidate on this podcast over the last couple of weeks. Let's just make it official. We still don't know exactly when he's going to be back and on the field, but he suffered that knee injury back in week four, and the original timetable was that he was going to be back in four to six weeks. We're basically there now and it comes at a good time. Bam Knight suffered an ankle injury in Week ten against the Seahawks. That backfield it's a Mari de Marcado and Michael Carter right now, which, by the way, if Trey Benson doesn't go this weekend, those running backs not bad ads off the waiver wire. But look in that game where Trey Benson was hurt he had a seventy three percent running back rush air and a twelve and a half percent target share. Those are really good peripherals. Let's just say that he comes back and he sees that kind of workload. In week sixteen and seventeen, the Cardinals get the Falcons and the Bengals. Atlanta's slowly become a top ten matchup for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed. Cincinnati is the best matchup, and that's during Championship Week. So if you're planning ahead and you want to have a player who has a shot to rise dramatically from a value perspective, even if his current situation is up in the air, I think Benson could be your guy. Ad Tyler Aljier Bjon Robinson has not scored a rushing touchdown since Week six. Tyler Algier has three of them. As I said in the newsletter this week, the Falcons seriously just hate us. That's the only explanation. But realistically, what's going on here is that Algier has five carries within the opponent's ten yard line during this timeframe. Bijon Robinson has won. Now, clearly Algier is not going to be an easy player to trust week in and week out. But the Falcons over their next three games, they get the Panthers, Saints, and Jets. Those each have the potential for favorable run heavy game scripts. So at the very least, if you get Algier, you're handcuffing one of the best running backs in fantasy football. But there is some potential that he could find your flex ad Sean Tucker. Bucky Irving's now been out since Week four. The Bucks have played five games without Irving. During the first three of those five games, Sean Tucker maxed out at a twenty two percent snapshare. His running back rush share never got higher than twenty six percent, But over his last two games, he's hit snap shares of thirty four percent and thirty three percent. He's had running back rush shares of forty one percent and forty seven percent. He's averaging over ten carries per game over his last two Now, Todd Bowles on Monday, he said that Bucky Irving still doesn't have a timetable to return. That means that Tucker, who's trending in the right direction right now from a usage perspective, he has a chance for some by week fill in production. The Bucks get the Bills this week too. Buffalo has been a top five matchup for running backs this year by Justin Fantasy points Allowed. Sell Tes Johnson. Tes Johnson, who weighs as much as some middle schoolers, has four touchdowns over his last four games. That's resulted in fourteen point two PPR points per game over the last month. Clearly, though, it's going to be really difficult for Tes Johnson to maintain that kind of touchdown production, especially because he only had an eleven percent target share in Week ten. Not only that, but Tampa Bay's rest of season schedule for wide receivers it looks okay on paper at first glance, but they face some teams like New Orleans and Carolina. They face some teams that, partially due to volume, they're not great matchups for wide receivers, at least according to Justin Fantasy points Allowed. Of their remaining opponents, just twenty nine percent of them rank his top half favorable matchups by Justin points Allowed. Now, look, I'm not sure if you can really sell high with Tees Johnson. Just know that he is out playing his expected fantasy points total by about four or five PPR points per game right now, ad Joe Burrow. There was some unexpected news out of Cincinnati on Monday, Joe Burrow's twenty one day practice window. It was opened. Now, look, I know Burrow right now, He's rostered in almost sixty percent of Yahoo leagues. Chances are someone in your league just threw them on IR, but not all leagues have an IR spot. There are gonna be people out there listening to the show where Joe Burrow is sitting on the waiver wire, and if if he is, I think you should get him this week. You may not be able to trust him right away, but Cincinnati quarterbacks have a good rest of season schedule. They only have one matchup against a bottom ten opponent, which is Buffalo in Week fourteen. So he's worth a bench spot right now, especially if you're struggling a quarterback by Jordan Addison. If you're looking for like a smaller deal to make this week, it could be to buy Jordan Addison to trade for him. Now. Am I super enthusiastic about the way this Vikings passing attack looks? No? Not really, But I do think it's rational to take a step back and remember that JJ McCarthy has only started four NFL games. Addison is diplow a seventeen percent target share just once this year, and in Week ten he saw a twenty seven percent share. Now, he couldn't connect on his twelve targets. He only had three catches. But it's nearly impossible for a professional wide receiver, a wide receiver in the NFL, to sustain that low of a catch rade. There's some potential for this Minnesota passing attack to pose better numbers moving forward. Upcoming from them is a game against the Bears. They've allowed about twenty seven passing yards over expected per game this year. Then it's the Packers who are closer to average, and that's pre Monday Night football numbers. Then they get the Seahawks who are plus thirteen yards, the Commanders who are plus twenty nine yards per game, the Cowboys who are plus fifty seven yards per game, the Giants who are plus ten yards per game, and then the Lions, who are minus eight yards per game. Minnesota wide receivers, according to my numbers, they have a top three rest of season schedule. Look, you should not send a starter to get Jordan Addison. That's not what I'm saying. But if you can get him to sit on your bench if you can trade a bench asset to get Addison, I think he's a good upside player to have sitting there. Add Dalton Schultz. Now, I'll be honest, what Dalton Schultz is doing does not feel super super sustainable. But he's been a top seven tight end in weekly PPR scoring in three of his last four games. He's seen a target chair of at least twenty percent in each of those contests. Now, look, the Texans have had a favorable tight end schedule during this stretch and the rest of the seasons schedule, it's actually bottom five in the league. But this kind of usage deserves a shout out. Schultz has been a sleeper show call out this year, but let's throw him on the transactions list this week too. Add Dawson Knox. I've talked about so many different tight ends over the last handful of weeks on this show. Whether it's Colston Loveland or whether it's Theo Johnson. I don't want to talk about the same guys over and over again, so let's give you a little bit of variety. Let's talk about Dawson Knox, who's going to be stepping in for Dalton Kincaid, because Dalton Kincaid right now is week to week with a hamstring injury. Now, back in Week six, when Kincaid was sidelined, Knox finished the day with a really solid seventy seven percent route chair. Now you might be sitting there and you're like, but he only had an eight percent target chair, and that's true, But he also faced Atlanta. Atlanta has been a team that's really limited tight end production this year, So with no reliable targets in that Buffalo offense, I think Dawson Knox could give you some usability here at least while Dalton kin Kate is sidelined. Hold Travion Henderson. What a wild year that it's been for Trayvon Henderson. Turns out he might not be that bad, which is great. It makes me look a lot less stupid after seeing him perform against the Buccaneers. But I've gotten a lot of questions about Henderson after that performance, so let's talk about him. He had a breakout game against the Bucks. His target share did dip to three point four percent, but his role participation rate week over week was basically the same, So that's just some variance at play. What we did see is that he had about a seventy four percent running back rush are. Now, part of that was because Terrell Jennings got hurt, but also Henderson took advantage. He ran the ball fourteen times for one hundred and forty seven yards and two touchdowns. Everyone got to see his big play ability. Now, after everything we've seen this year, you might be tempted to sell, And honestly, it's not a bad thought because there's a very real chance that when Ramandre Stevenson is back that he comes in and he takes a pretty big workload in that backfield. But there's also a chance that Stevenson misses another game this week because the Patriots play on Thursday night and they face the Jets, which on paper should be a good matchup for Henderson. Then after that game against the Jets, they get matchups against the Bengals and the Giants before they're Week fourteen. By those are quite literally the two best opponents for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed. After the bye, New England gets Buffalo, they're currently the fifth best opponent for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed, and then they're going to finish the season against the Ravens, who are playing better, but they're the six best opponent, and then the Jets, again aside from their by Patriot running backs have the best schedule in all of fantasy football. Now, look like I said, I'd anticipate Ramandre Stevenson coming back at some point and seeing a pretty good workload. I just don't think it's gonna be as big as it was before. That means Henderson could just play a role in this offense and play a role that I thought he was gonna play at the start of the season, where maybe he sees half of the team's running back rushes and maybe a little bit more who knows, And then he sees a decent amount of targets or at least he's used in that way as the team's pass catcher. And now we know he has that big playability. We actually have seen it. It's not just something that he did in college during the preseason. He's done it in an NFL game. As a result, he could be really efficient given these matchups down the stretch. So rather than thinking that he's an automatic cell, I would just be holding I think buying it's probably a little bit aggressive given how obnoxious that coaching staff has been with his backfield this year. But honestly, guys, I think Henderson and Stevenson could finish the twenty twenty five season pretty well. Ad Keaton Mitchell. Keaton Mitchell continues to be very very fast. There are eight players, according to next Gen Stats who have had three or more runs this year where they hit twenty miles an hour or more. Jonathan Taylor, Jamir Gibbs, Devon a Chan, Saquon Barkley, Dereck Henry, and Breise Hall. Those are six of them. No real surprise is there. Each one of those running backs for the record has at least one hundred and twenty eight rush attempts. Another player on that list this is really surprising. It's Caleb Williams and he only has forty eight rush attempts. The eighth player on this list Keaton Mitchell. He's had three runs of twenty miles an hour or more on only fifteen rush attempts. Mitchell's seen four rushes in each of his last three games. His running back rush aers. They've consistently only been like the sixteen percent range. There's nothing amazing going on on the usage front, but On Monday, John Harbaugh noted that the Ravens want to get Mitchell more involved. Who knows what that means. I certainly have no idea because they have Derrick Henry. What we do know is that Keaton Mitchell is an efficient machine and he can break big plays, and he's won Derreck Henry injury away from seeing more work in that backfield. Now, he wouldn't be a bell cow, but he would see more work if Derrick Henry went down to me in deeper leagues. That's worth a roster stash. Add the Atlanta Falcons defense, the Falcons are at home this week. They're three and a half point favorites against the Panthers Carolina. They're the fifth best opponent for opposing defenses by adjusted points allowed. Now I do have a couple of fears here. Number one, the Falcons are traveling a pretty long way to get back home. Number two, the Panthers might be able to run the ball on the Falcons. That could limit defensive scoring opportunities for fantasy purposes. But overall, it's a pretty tough week for streaming defenses. So we're gonna ride with Atlanta as a higher floor option. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bustorting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found it. Don't for to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends episode.